NEW BCS Standings, Oct 23rd
Ok, if you are not hip to my blog, you might want to jump back a few posts and read what I mean by the “new” BCS. Simply put, I wanted to create a formula to decide who the best teams might be at this stage of the season, based on 24 factors.
I have used that formula to figure out who may well be the top 10 teams of the season thus far, but it is not a perfect formula. It takes into account the current facts, but as each week goes by, it can change quite dramatically. I broke the major factors into groups, and use these following to determine my formulaL
Factor #1 Wins: Most important, and I give 20 points for every win a team has.
Factors 2&3: Road and home wins: I place a bit more emphasis on winning at home, and protecting your house, than on the road. I give 7 extra points for every home win, and 5 extra points for every road win.
Factors 4-6: FBS factor: I give 7 points for every team you beat that is in your conference, and 3 points for every team out of your conference. IF you play a team that is not a FBS school, you LOSE two points. This rewards those who play tougher schedules, and penalizes the cupcakes.
Factors 7-10 Ranked foes: You get extra points for knocking off a top 25 team at the time they were ranked. If you beat a #4 team in week 3, and they fall off by week 6, you still get credit for beating them when they were ranked. I give 10 points to any team that knocks off a top 5 team, 7 points for beating a 6-10 team, 5 points for beating a team ranked between 11-15 and 3 points for beating any team from 16 to 25.
Factors 11-13: Strength factor: I reward extra points if you beat a team that has a winning record, or even a .500 record. I give 7 points for every team on your schedule that has a winning record as the season goes on. Any team with an even record nets you 3 points, but any team that falls under .500, you LOSE 2 points.
Factors 14-16: Beatdown factor: The more points you pile on, the more you get. But you must beat your team by at least 16 to qualify. If a team wins by over 16 points, I give them one extra point. If they win by over 24 points, I give them 3 points. If they crush their opponent by over 36, they get 5 extra points.
Factors 17-19: Passing factor: A team is considered great if they are a top 20 passing team OR rushing…or both. I give 5 points to the team that is in the top 5 in passing yards and touchdowns, for a total of 10 points possible. I give 3 points if they are in the top 10 in either category, and 1 point if they are in the top 20 in either.
Factors 20-22: Rushing factor: Same as Passing, I give 5 points if a team is in the top 5 in rushing yards or rushing touchdowns, and 3 points if in the top 10, and a single point if in the top 20.
Factors 23-24: Defense factor: They say offense wins games but defense wins championships. I am not so sure about that, but I do give 5 additional points if the team holds each opponent to under 8 points, and 2 points if they hold each team under 16. It’s my way of rewarding good defensive play.
Now, having gone through all that, here are my top 1 teams according to my NEW BCS formula:
#12 LSU: 189 points. With no real valuable wins, and nowhere in the top 20 in passing or rushing, this team edges out at the bottom of my list.
#11 Miami: 195 points. Similar to LSU, as far as rushing and passing, but some very quality wins keeps them in the loop.
#10 AND #9 TIE USC and Oregon: 205 points. Two one loss teams out of the Pac 10 look pretty good, but we know that they have to play one another soon… this problem will fix itself.
#8 TCU: 222 points: TCU scores in every category, but they need a couple of quality wins to jump over anybody…they are on track to see those very games ahead.
#7 Boise State: 225 points: Very narrow margin with Boise State, and with no real quality wins left, I see them slipping further down. It won’t take much for TCU to overtake them if both continue to win.
#6 Cincinnati: 234 points: This seems to prove that an undefeated team out of even a “weaker” BCS conference is indeed better than Boise State or TCU, and Cincinnati has a couple of big games yet to come.
#5 Georgia Tech: 237 points: With 7 games played, they do have an advantage over those who have so far played 6, so this score may not be totally honest and even. But considering they have one loss, this will be a serious question if they win out.
#4 Texas: 238 points: Some question how Texas has played lately, and a few even say that Texas will lose to Missouri. But to me this is one of the best teams in the nation, and if they sweep the Big 12, they are a shoe in for the National Title.
#3 Florida: 247 points: Much that is said about Texas can be said about Florida and their many close games. But like Texas, if they win out, they are likely in the BCS Championship.
#2 Iowa: 291 points: I have Iowa here only because they have 7 wins, and no one else underneath them has such. The extra game, to this point, has been the reason why they are here at #2. What my formula seems to imply is that winning, and more of it, is indeed most important. But as the other teams play their schedule, things will even out.
#1 Alabama: 297 points: Just as with Iowa, Alabama has 7 wins as well, which on paper look more impressive than 6 wins. If you consider that they are 40 points ahead of Florida and Texas, this could easily be about even. Alabama has the edge only because they get the benefits of the points for a 7th win. As more games are played, we will see the truth come out.
So that’s what I got so far folks, I don’t claim to say this is the gospel, just something fun to do to make conversation. As it stands right now, I have Alabama and Iowa as the two best teams, but ONLY because they have 7 wins. After all, a 7-0 record is better than a 6-0 record, right?
Right? (he said, expecting a debate….)
Showing posts with label BCS Standings. Show all posts
Showing posts with label BCS Standings. Show all posts
Friday, October 23, 2009
Thursday, October 22, 2009
New BCS: Iowa and Cincinnati
New BCS Formula: Iowa and Cincinnati
Now, if you are confused about what I am writing, bounce back to the previous post about the Florida rankings and my new BCS Formula. It will explain a few things for you.
This is simply my attempt to find a different way to determine who the best teams in the FCS are, rather than simply letting media-heads with biased opinions guess on who are the top 25.
To do this, I thought about some of the most basic factors in determining the best teams. I combined them, gave values for each and award such points to every team who accomplishes the factor. I came up with 24 different factors, but they actually can be broken down into 9 different groups.
To demonstrate, I will run two undefeated teams through this formula, using Iowa and Cincinnati:
To start off, I give the most points simply for winning…it is of course the most important factor of getting to the BCS, right?
Factor #1 Winning: I give 20 points for every win a team has. Because Iowa is 7-0, they get 140 points. Because Cincinnati is 6-0, they get 120 points.
Factors 2&3: Where you win is important, and you get points for that. I believe home wins are more important because you must “protect this house” as a commercial once said. I give 7 points for each home win, and 5 points for each road win. Iowa has 4 home wins, which gives them 28 points, while Cincinnati has 2 home wins, for 14 points. For the road games, Iowa has 3 road wins for 15 points, Cincinnati has 4 road wins, for 20 points.
If you are keeping score, that gives Iowa 183 points to Cincinnati’s 154.
Factors 3-5: The type of opponent you beat is important, and can even cost you a few points. I give credit to beating conference opponents, non conference opponents and I also penalize for playing a non-division I team. To me, a great team has to dominate their own conference first, then any wins outside the conference is extra. Beating a team not in the Division I means nothing to a great team.
So under these factors, Iowa gets 21 points for conference wins, 20 points for non-conference wins, but loses 2 points for playing Northern Iowa. That gives them 39 points.
Cincinnati gets 14 points for conference wins, 20 points for non-conference wins, but loses 2 points for playing SE Missouri State. That gives them a total of 32 points.
Score so far, Iowa 222 points, Cincinnati 186.
Factors 7-10: It is also important to beat teams that are ranked, and I used the AP poll as a constant to determine the points awarded. You get more points if you knock off a top 25 team. I give 10 points to any team beating a top 5 squad, 7 points for beating a team 6-10, I give 5 points for beating a team ranked 11-15, and 3 points for any team under that, but still ranked.
This rewards teams that prove that they are indeed one of the best teams in the land, rather than beating cupcakes every Saturday. To date, Iowa has only beaten one team that was ranked, which was #5 Penn State. That gives them 10 points.
Cincinnati has only defeated formerly ranked South Florida, which was #21. For that they get only 3 points.
Total so far, Iowa 232, Cincinnati 189.
Factors 11-13: Strength of opponent: I award points if you beat a team that is currently over .500 or even. I penalize if you beat a team that is under .500. This awards beating teams with winning records, and although a team can’t control the fate of their opponents, it still has to factor in.
Amazingly, 6 of Iowa’s 7 opponents have a winning record, and I give 7 points for each win, for a big 49 points. They lose only 2 points after that because they have one opponent with a losing record at this time, so their total here is 47 points.
Cincinnati has beaten 3 teams with a current winning record, which gives them 21 points. They also have a victory against a team that is even, which gives them 3 more points, but loses 4 points because they beat two teams with losing records. This gives them a sub total of 20 points.
So far, Iowa 279, Cincinnati 209.
Factors 14-16: Style points: I don’t care what anybody says, the way you beat your opponent does say a lot about how good you are. This is not to influence running up the score, but clearly it determines your strength. I give 5 points for every win over 36 points, 3 points for every win over 24 points and 1 point for every win over 16 points. So if a team wins by 30, I slot them in the highest slot possible, which would be the 24+ factor, giving them 3 points. I would not put them in multiple slots, I put them in the highest one they qualify for.
Knowing this, Iowa only gets 3 points because of their win over Iowa State. No other games qualify them since nearly all their games have been close. Cincinnati has one game where they won by over 36 points (+5), one other game where they won by over 24 points (+3) and two games where they won by over 16 (1 pt for each win). That gives Cincinnati a total of 10 points in this set of factors.
Score, Iowa 282, Cincinnati 219
Factors 17-19 Passing credits: I award points if a team is in the top 5, 10 or 20 in passing by either yards or touchdowns. Because teams may use multiple quarterbacks, I use any that are on the top 20. I give 5 points if a team is in the top 5 in yards OR touchdowns. I give 3 points if they are in the top 10, and 1 point if they are on the top 20.
In this case, which does change weekly, Iowa is NOT on the top 20 in either case, but Cincinnati is on the top 5 in touchdowns and top 20 in yards. The Bearcats get 6 points for this, while Iowa gets none.
Iowa still at 282, Cincinnati now has 225.
Factors 20-22 Rushing credits: Just like passing, the points are the same if a team is in the top 5, 10 or 20 for rushing in either yards or touchdowns. But in this case, NEITHER team gets any points since they do not rank in the top 20 in either touchdowns or yards. So the score remains the same.
Factors 23 & 24: Points given up: I award 5 points for every game where the defense allowed UNDER 8 points, and 2 points for every game the defense allowed under 16 points. This acknowledges defensive play, and could rack up some nice numbers.
Under these factors, Iowa had 2 games where they allowed under 16 points, and one game where they allowed under 8 points. They get 2 points for each of those two games, and 5 points for allowing under 8 in a game, for a total of 9 points. Cincinnati is exactly the same, having two games where they allowed under 16, and one game where the defense allowed under 8 points, so they get 9 points as well.
So the grand total, as of this week, Iowa 291, Cincinnati 234.
So where does this put them in the top 5? If we used the same formula for Florida, Boise State, Alabama and Texas, which I did in the previous blog, this is what we have:
1. Alabama 297 points
2. Iowa 291 points
3. Florida 247 points
4. Texas 238 points
5. Cincinnati 234 points
6. Boise State 225 points.
I remind you that Alabama and Iowa have the advantage of playing 7 games, not six, so that explains why they are so far ahead of the others at this point in time. Remember, I award 20 points off the top just for winning, so the 50 point difference between them and the others is partly based on that.
But you can also see where Boise State is, at number 6, based on the current circumstances. I ran TCU under the same formula and they came out with 222 points, just a hair short of Boise State…but remember, this is just for this week, it changes weekly.
So at this moment, Iowa and Alabama are the best teams in the nation, but only because they have one more game under their belts. Considering that you can get a good 40-60 points per win, Texas, Florida and Cincinnati are not that far behind at all.
We will see how it goes.
Now, if you are confused about what I am writing, bounce back to the previous post about the Florida rankings and my new BCS Formula. It will explain a few things for you.
This is simply my attempt to find a different way to determine who the best teams in the FCS are, rather than simply letting media-heads with biased opinions guess on who are the top 25.
To do this, I thought about some of the most basic factors in determining the best teams. I combined them, gave values for each and award such points to every team who accomplishes the factor. I came up with 24 different factors, but they actually can be broken down into 9 different groups.
To demonstrate, I will run two undefeated teams through this formula, using Iowa and Cincinnati:
To start off, I give the most points simply for winning…it is of course the most important factor of getting to the BCS, right?
Factor #1 Winning: I give 20 points for every win a team has. Because Iowa is 7-0, they get 140 points. Because Cincinnati is 6-0, they get 120 points.
Factors 2&3: Where you win is important, and you get points for that. I believe home wins are more important because you must “protect this house” as a commercial once said. I give 7 points for each home win, and 5 points for each road win. Iowa has 4 home wins, which gives them 28 points, while Cincinnati has 2 home wins, for 14 points. For the road games, Iowa has 3 road wins for 15 points, Cincinnati has 4 road wins, for 20 points.
If you are keeping score, that gives Iowa 183 points to Cincinnati’s 154.
Factors 3-5: The type of opponent you beat is important, and can even cost you a few points. I give credit to beating conference opponents, non conference opponents and I also penalize for playing a non-division I team. To me, a great team has to dominate their own conference first, then any wins outside the conference is extra. Beating a team not in the Division I means nothing to a great team.
So under these factors, Iowa gets 21 points for conference wins, 20 points for non-conference wins, but loses 2 points for playing Northern Iowa. That gives them 39 points.
Cincinnati gets 14 points for conference wins, 20 points for non-conference wins, but loses 2 points for playing SE Missouri State. That gives them a total of 32 points.
Score so far, Iowa 222 points, Cincinnati 186.
Factors 7-10: It is also important to beat teams that are ranked, and I used the AP poll as a constant to determine the points awarded. You get more points if you knock off a top 25 team. I give 10 points to any team beating a top 5 squad, 7 points for beating a team 6-10, I give 5 points for beating a team ranked 11-15, and 3 points for any team under that, but still ranked.
This rewards teams that prove that they are indeed one of the best teams in the land, rather than beating cupcakes every Saturday. To date, Iowa has only beaten one team that was ranked, which was #5 Penn State. That gives them 10 points.
Cincinnati has only defeated formerly ranked South Florida, which was #21. For that they get only 3 points.
Total so far, Iowa 232, Cincinnati 189.
Factors 11-13: Strength of opponent: I award points if you beat a team that is currently over .500 or even. I penalize if you beat a team that is under .500. This awards beating teams with winning records, and although a team can’t control the fate of their opponents, it still has to factor in.
Amazingly, 6 of Iowa’s 7 opponents have a winning record, and I give 7 points for each win, for a big 49 points. They lose only 2 points after that because they have one opponent with a losing record at this time, so their total here is 47 points.
Cincinnati has beaten 3 teams with a current winning record, which gives them 21 points. They also have a victory against a team that is even, which gives them 3 more points, but loses 4 points because they beat two teams with losing records. This gives them a sub total of 20 points.
So far, Iowa 279, Cincinnati 209.
Factors 14-16: Style points: I don’t care what anybody says, the way you beat your opponent does say a lot about how good you are. This is not to influence running up the score, but clearly it determines your strength. I give 5 points for every win over 36 points, 3 points for every win over 24 points and 1 point for every win over 16 points. So if a team wins by 30, I slot them in the highest slot possible, which would be the 24+ factor, giving them 3 points. I would not put them in multiple slots, I put them in the highest one they qualify for.
Knowing this, Iowa only gets 3 points because of their win over Iowa State. No other games qualify them since nearly all their games have been close. Cincinnati has one game where they won by over 36 points (+5), one other game where they won by over 24 points (+3) and two games where they won by over 16 (1 pt for each win). That gives Cincinnati a total of 10 points in this set of factors.
Score, Iowa 282, Cincinnati 219
Factors 17-19 Passing credits: I award points if a team is in the top 5, 10 or 20 in passing by either yards or touchdowns. Because teams may use multiple quarterbacks, I use any that are on the top 20. I give 5 points if a team is in the top 5 in yards OR touchdowns. I give 3 points if they are in the top 10, and 1 point if they are on the top 20.
In this case, which does change weekly, Iowa is NOT on the top 20 in either case, but Cincinnati is on the top 5 in touchdowns and top 20 in yards. The Bearcats get 6 points for this, while Iowa gets none.
Iowa still at 282, Cincinnati now has 225.
Factors 20-22 Rushing credits: Just like passing, the points are the same if a team is in the top 5, 10 or 20 for rushing in either yards or touchdowns. But in this case, NEITHER team gets any points since they do not rank in the top 20 in either touchdowns or yards. So the score remains the same.
Factors 23 & 24: Points given up: I award 5 points for every game where the defense allowed UNDER 8 points, and 2 points for every game the defense allowed under 16 points. This acknowledges defensive play, and could rack up some nice numbers.
Under these factors, Iowa had 2 games where they allowed under 16 points, and one game where they allowed under 8 points. They get 2 points for each of those two games, and 5 points for allowing under 8 in a game, for a total of 9 points. Cincinnati is exactly the same, having two games where they allowed under 16, and one game where the defense allowed under 8 points, so they get 9 points as well.
So the grand total, as of this week, Iowa 291, Cincinnati 234.
So where does this put them in the top 5? If we used the same formula for Florida, Boise State, Alabama and Texas, which I did in the previous blog, this is what we have:
1. Alabama 297 points
2. Iowa 291 points
3. Florida 247 points
4. Texas 238 points
5. Cincinnati 234 points
6. Boise State 225 points.
I remind you that Alabama and Iowa have the advantage of playing 7 games, not six, so that explains why they are so far ahead of the others at this point in time. Remember, I award 20 points off the top just for winning, so the 50 point difference between them and the others is partly based on that.
But you can also see where Boise State is, at number 6, based on the current circumstances. I ran TCU under the same formula and they came out with 222 points, just a hair short of Boise State…but remember, this is just for this week, it changes weekly.
So at this moment, Iowa and Alabama are the best teams in the nation, but only because they have one more game under their belts. Considering that you can get a good 40-60 points per win, Texas, Florida and Cincinnati are not that far behind at all.
We will see how it goes.
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
The NEW BCS: Florida scores
The NEW BCS: Florida score
In an attempt to make a case about who the REAL best teams in college football are, I came up with a formula that awards points to teams based on 24 different categories. In a foolish attempt to try this out, I decided to see how the top teams would fare in my formula, and where they might land after the first week of the BCS scores have come out.
We start first with the number one team, Florida, and will give points based on the following, and add (or subtract) at the end.
Factor #1 Wins: You get 20 points for every win you have, because this is one of the most significant factors in college football…you must WIN your games. Nobody cares for a team with 2 or 3 losses, we want to see undefeated teams in the BCS Championship (in theory). Florida is 6-0, so that is 6 X 20, or 120 points thus far.
Factor #2 Home wins: I award 7 points for every home win because it seems to be more important to defend your house than to play on the road. These points are added to the current total. Since Florida has 4 home wins, that makes 7 X 4, or 28 points more.
Factor #3 Road wins: I give 5 points for every road game, making it important, but not as important to home wins. Florida gets 2 X 5, or 10 more points added to their score.
That makes a total so far of 158 points.
Factor #4 Conference wins: It is critical for any team to win their conference games, and Florida has won 4 conference games thus far. I award 7 points per conference win, so 7 X 4= 28 more points.
Factor #5 Non Conference wins: I don’t award as many points for this because a non conference win may be against anybody, so I give only 3 points per win. Florida gets 2 X 3 or 6 more points for this factor.
Factor #6 Non FCS win: Here, you actually LOSE points for playing a team that does not factor into a serious championship. You lose 2 points for every “cupcake” you schedule. Florida actually loses 2 points for playing Charleston Southern.
So far the total is 192, but minus those 2 points, they have 190 points.
Factor #7 Wins over top 5 teams: After wins with 20 points each, this is the second most important factor, awarding 10 points for every team you beat that was in the top five at that time. Because Florida did beat LSU when they were #4, they get an additional 10 points.
Factor #8 Win over a team 6-10: Normally I award 7 points, but Florida gets no points at this point in time, having beaten no team ranked 6-10 yet.
Factor #9 Win over a team 11-15: Normally I award 5 points, but Florida does not yet qualify.
Factor #10 Win over a team 16-25. Normally I award 3 points, but Florida does not yet qualify.
So far Florida has 200 points.
Factor #11 Win over a team +.500: I give 7 points for every team that is CURRENTLY over .500. At this moment there are 2 teams over .500 that Florida has defeated, so they get 7 X 2, or 14 points
Factor #12 Wins over a .500 team. 3 points for beating average teams, and Florida has beaten 3 such teams. This means 3 X 3 or 9 more points.
Factor #13 Wins over a -.500 team. You actually lose 2 points for every sub par team you beat. Because this only includes Charleston Southern, they lose only 2 points.
So that brings Florida to 223, minus 2 points, for a total of 221 points.
Factor #14 Wins by +16: I award points for domination, and if a team can win by more than two possessions, they get one point for every win. Each win counts once in the factor, so if a team won by 40 points, they are put in a higher factor. At this point, Florida has beaten no team by 16 plus for the 1 point bonus. They have won by larger margins, so they will be slotted for more points.
Factor #15 Wins by +24 points: I award 3 points for every win over 24 points. The win over Kentucky qualifies, since it is over 24 points. So Florida gets +3 for that win.
Factor #16 Wins by +36 points: I award 5 points for every win of more than 36 points. Florida has 2 games where they won by such a margin, so they get 5 X 2,or 10 more points.
This brings them to a total so far of 234 points.
Factor #17 Top 5 passing: If a team is in the top 5 in EITHER yards or touchdowns, they get 5 more points, for as much as 10 additional points. At this point, Florida does not qualify for any points.
Factor #18 top 10 passing: If a team is in the top 10 in EITHER yards or touchdowns, they get 3 points for each, for as much as 6 additional points. At this point, Florida does not qualify for any points.
Factor #19 Top 20 passing team: If a team is in the top 20 in EITHER yards or touchdowns, they get one point for each, for as much as 2 additional points. At this point, Florida does not qualify for any points.
Factor #20 Top 5 rushing team: If a team is in the top 5 in EITHER yards or touchdowns, they get 5 points for each, for as much as 10 additional points. At this point, Florida does not qualify for any points.
Factor #21 Top 10 rushing team: Same as top 10 passing. Florida qualifies for 3 points.
Factor #22 Top 20 rushing team: Same as top 20 passing. Florida qualifies for no points.
So far, the score remains at 234 points, plus the 3 points from factor #21 for a total of 237 points.
Factor #23 Defense gives up under 16 a game: I award 2 points for every game where the defense gives up UNDER 16 points. Each game qualifies either under factor #23 or factor #24. Florida has one game where the defense gave up 13 points, so they get an additional 2 points for that game.
Factor #24 Defense gives up under 8 a game: I award 5 points for every game where the defense gives up UNDER 8 points. Each game qualifies either under factor #23 or factor #24. Florida has four games that qualify, having their defense allow under 8 per game, so they get 4 X 5, or 20 points.
The overall total would give Florida 247 points.
If I ran the same formula for Texas, I would get 238 points.
Alabama would have 297 points, but remember, they have 7 games, whereas Florida and Texas have 6.
So where would a team like Boise State fit right now?
They would have 225 points.
So if I used my formula, my top four would be Alabama, Florida, Texas and Boise State…but that is only based on this week, and the fact that Alabama has played one more game than the others. One game can get you as much as 70+ points in a win, so it’s not that Alabama is so far ahead of everybody else. And with other undefeated teams like Cincinnati and Iowa, and good 1-loss teams like USC, this isn’t etched in stone.
But what it does, at least for me, is use many points which make up a great team, not just opinions based on what we like or dislike. I realize it may be a little complicated, but next time I will share more teams and how they might fit in my new BCS formula. And because it changes weekly, this is not going to stay the same by any means.
Tune in and we’ll look at a few other teams and see where they REALLY fit in.
In an attempt to make a case about who the REAL best teams in college football are, I came up with a formula that awards points to teams based on 24 different categories. In a foolish attempt to try this out, I decided to see how the top teams would fare in my formula, and where they might land after the first week of the BCS scores have come out.
We start first with the number one team, Florida, and will give points based on the following, and add (or subtract) at the end.
Factor #1 Wins: You get 20 points for every win you have, because this is one of the most significant factors in college football…you must WIN your games. Nobody cares for a team with 2 or 3 losses, we want to see undefeated teams in the BCS Championship (in theory). Florida is 6-0, so that is 6 X 20, or 120 points thus far.
Factor #2 Home wins: I award 7 points for every home win because it seems to be more important to defend your house than to play on the road. These points are added to the current total. Since Florida has 4 home wins, that makes 7 X 4, or 28 points more.
Factor #3 Road wins: I give 5 points for every road game, making it important, but not as important to home wins. Florida gets 2 X 5, or 10 more points added to their score.
That makes a total so far of 158 points.
Factor #4 Conference wins: It is critical for any team to win their conference games, and Florida has won 4 conference games thus far. I award 7 points per conference win, so 7 X 4= 28 more points.
Factor #5 Non Conference wins: I don’t award as many points for this because a non conference win may be against anybody, so I give only 3 points per win. Florida gets 2 X 3 or 6 more points for this factor.
Factor #6 Non FCS win: Here, you actually LOSE points for playing a team that does not factor into a serious championship. You lose 2 points for every “cupcake” you schedule. Florida actually loses 2 points for playing Charleston Southern.
So far the total is 192, but minus those 2 points, they have 190 points.
Factor #7 Wins over top 5 teams: After wins with 20 points each, this is the second most important factor, awarding 10 points for every team you beat that was in the top five at that time. Because Florida did beat LSU when they were #4, they get an additional 10 points.
Factor #8 Win over a team 6-10: Normally I award 7 points, but Florida gets no points at this point in time, having beaten no team ranked 6-10 yet.
Factor #9 Win over a team 11-15: Normally I award 5 points, but Florida does not yet qualify.
Factor #10 Win over a team 16-25. Normally I award 3 points, but Florida does not yet qualify.
So far Florida has 200 points.
Factor #11 Win over a team +.500: I give 7 points for every team that is CURRENTLY over .500. At this moment there are 2 teams over .500 that Florida has defeated, so they get 7 X 2, or 14 points
Factor #12 Wins over a .500 team. 3 points for beating average teams, and Florida has beaten 3 such teams. This means 3 X 3 or 9 more points.
Factor #13 Wins over a -.500 team. You actually lose 2 points for every sub par team you beat. Because this only includes Charleston Southern, they lose only 2 points.
So that brings Florida to 223, minus 2 points, for a total of 221 points.
Factor #14 Wins by +16: I award points for domination, and if a team can win by more than two possessions, they get one point for every win. Each win counts once in the factor, so if a team won by 40 points, they are put in a higher factor. At this point, Florida has beaten no team by 16 plus for the 1 point bonus. They have won by larger margins, so they will be slotted for more points.
Factor #15 Wins by +24 points: I award 3 points for every win over 24 points. The win over Kentucky qualifies, since it is over 24 points. So Florida gets +3 for that win.
Factor #16 Wins by +36 points: I award 5 points for every win of more than 36 points. Florida has 2 games where they won by such a margin, so they get 5 X 2,or 10 more points.
This brings them to a total so far of 234 points.
Factor #17 Top 5 passing: If a team is in the top 5 in EITHER yards or touchdowns, they get 5 more points, for as much as 10 additional points. At this point, Florida does not qualify for any points.
Factor #18 top 10 passing: If a team is in the top 10 in EITHER yards or touchdowns, they get 3 points for each, for as much as 6 additional points. At this point, Florida does not qualify for any points.
Factor #19 Top 20 passing team: If a team is in the top 20 in EITHER yards or touchdowns, they get one point for each, for as much as 2 additional points. At this point, Florida does not qualify for any points.
Factor #20 Top 5 rushing team: If a team is in the top 5 in EITHER yards or touchdowns, they get 5 points for each, for as much as 10 additional points. At this point, Florida does not qualify for any points.
Factor #21 Top 10 rushing team: Same as top 10 passing. Florida qualifies for 3 points.
Factor #22 Top 20 rushing team: Same as top 20 passing. Florida qualifies for no points.
So far, the score remains at 234 points, plus the 3 points from factor #21 for a total of 237 points.
Factor #23 Defense gives up under 16 a game: I award 2 points for every game where the defense gives up UNDER 16 points. Each game qualifies either under factor #23 or factor #24. Florida has one game where the defense gave up 13 points, so they get an additional 2 points for that game.
Factor #24 Defense gives up under 8 a game: I award 5 points for every game where the defense gives up UNDER 8 points. Each game qualifies either under factor #23 or factor #24. Florida has four games that qualify, having their defense allow under 8 per game, so they get 4 X 5, or 20 points.
The overall total would give Florida 247 points.
If I ran the same formula for Texas, I would get 238 points.
Alabama would have 297 points, but remember, they have 7 games, whereas Florida and Texas have 6.
So where would a team like Boise State fit right now?
They would have 225 points.
So if I used my formula, my top four would be Alabama, Florida, Texas and Boise State…but that is only based on this week, and the fact that Alabama has played one more game than the others. One game can get you as much as 70+ points in a win, so it’s not that Alabama is so far ahead of everybody else. And with other undefeated teams like Cincinnati and Iowa, and good 1-loss teams like USC, this isn’t etched in stone.
But what it does, at least for me, is use many points which make up a great team, not just opinions based on what we like or dislike. I realize it may be a little complicated, but next time I will share more teams and how they might fit in my new BCS formula. And because it changes weekly, this is not going to stay the same by any means.
Tune in and we’ll look at a few other teams and see where they REALLY fit in.
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Should undefeated teams go to BCS Bowls?
Do Undefeated teams deserve BCS?
Last night I was watching Ball State as they won their game, and also going perfect for the year. Because it was on ESPN, there was a lot of talk about whether non-BCS teams deserve to play in the National Championship, or even in the BCS.
There were a lot of people who felt that Ball State, currently 12-0, should have a shot a the BCS National Championship, or at least a BCS Bowl. Others feel that they don’t deserve a shot because they have not proven that they are worthy of such an honor.
One argument centers around the idea of rewarding teams with a perfect season. Where do we stand on it, especially with four undefeated teams left in the nation, as of this moment. Nobody will argue that IF Alabama goes undefeated, they clearly deserve a place in the National Championship, right?
RIGHT???
Come on folks, you don’t have to be an Alabama fan to understand that if a team in a power conference such as the SEC goes undefeated, they are in as one of the best teams in the nation. So there is no argument about that as of now. Don’t give me any cheap talk about “but what if Florida beats them”. We are talking about this very second, not what MIGHT happen.
Right now there are four undefeated teams, and nobody will argue Alabama’s record. But we do have problems with Utah, Boise State and Ball State. Many people want their team, who is currently undefeated, to play in the national championship. See that’s the problem with the “interactive” days on ESPN, most of those people who open their mouths are ONLY speaking out of extreme prejudice.
Ball State fans are obviously going to cry foul and even get mixed up in thinking that their team OUGHT to be one of the 2, or even 4 best teams in the nation. Now don’t get me mixed up here, I came from a small school too, in the Southern Conference, but a real sports fan has to understand if there is a legit argument.
So let’s address that. Do undefeated teams deserve to play in a BCS or National Championship. I can answer that right away with this answer…
NO.
Why? Because if you automatically award teams with a perfect record, you will then encourage teams to pervert the system for themselves. Teams will stop scheduling tougher records and go for softer ones, just to claim the “perfect” record. Let’s understand this folks, being perfect does not always mean being elite.
I say again, being perfect does NOT always mean being elite.
To me, there is an honorable way of winning, and having a perfect season, and then there are perversions to fool people. If having a perfect record was an automatic invite to the BCS or National Championship, then if I am an AD in a Division I school, I would schedule the softest record I can come up with. Imagine if somebody scheduled Washington, North Texas, Idaho, New Mexico State, Utah State, Washington State, and Eastern Michigan and going 7-0. Sure, the strength of schedule would truly suck, but there would still be people whining about “why can our team be in the BCS, we’re perfect so far?”
Awarding teams that way only leads to perversion, because athletic directors will find a way to “cheat the system” just to have a better record. So no, I do not believe an undefeated team should have an automatic invitation to the BCS Championship or BCS Bowl.
But let’s examine those four teams and argue each one. The easiest is the first…Alabama. They come out of the SEC, arguably the best or second best conference in the nation. Now, I will argue their strength of schedule because Clemson has fallen apart, LSU has fallen out of the top 25 and Georgia has been slipping, but I will not argue the strength of the SEC. So I have no arguments that Alabama is the best team in the nation…at this moment in time.
But then from there you drop down to #6 Utah. Now here, there is no question that Utah will be in a BCS bowl, but do they deserve to be in the National Championship? Utah defeats a team from the Big 10 (Michigan), defeats Air Force and ranked teams TCU and BYU, as well as Oregon State who is also currently ranked and headed for the Rose Bowl.. Utah clearly deserves a BCS Bowl, but a National Championship?
This one is hard, but if I had to argue against it, it goes back to the strength of the conference. Personally, I think if there had to be one more power conference this year, it must be the MWC. But we also know that Utah had some cupcakes in 2-10 San Diego State, 4-8 Wyoming and 4-8 New Mexico. The top 3 or 4 teams in the MWC are good, but after that, it’s not that impressive. And playing Weber State does not help either. I won’t argue Utah State, because you gotta keep your state rivals, but overall, this hurts Utah. It’s pretty clear, if you want to be in a serious chase for a National Championship, then PLAY serious contenders. But I say that with the greatest respect for Utah, I really like them.
Next is Boise State, a team that gave college fans one of the best games in recent memory, and one Oklahoma wants to forget. The problem is Boise State is currently #9 on the BCS polls, and will likely get knocked off the list because the BCS has to satisfy all the power conferences.
Now, does Boise State deserve a chance at a National Championship or a BCS Bowl? Remember, this team is undefeated and fans have been arguing that they deserve a shot… but does their schedule show this?
Remember folks, I strongly believe that just because you are perfect does NOT make you an automatic to a National Championship. Perfection can be perverted just like stats to say what YOU want, not what truly is. Of the four teams, Alabama is the only one out of a major conference, one NOBODY will argue on its strength. Utah is from a lesser conference, but NOBODY better argue that this team knocked off 3 ranked foes, and a pretty decent Air Force team.
But where does Boise State fit in? What is their resume? How many teams has Boise State defeated this year that were/are ranked? I think Oregon is the only one, and I will credit them with that game because it was away. But who else?
Idaho State? They are 1-11!
Bowling Green? They are 5-6!
Louisiana Tech? They are the second best team in the WAC at 7-4.
Southern Miss? They are 5-6!
Hawaii? They are 6-5.
San Jose State? 6-6, even though ESPN tried to bill that game up as something big.
New Mexico State? 3-8
Utah State? Even worse at 2-9!
Idaho? 2-10!
And Nevada? 6-5.
Most of Boise State’s teams are UNDER .500, and the conference is clearly not in league with the power conferences. This is where some people get a little drunk and think that Boise State could run the tables in the ACC or Big East… not likely folks. Don’t fool yourselves to think that the Idahos and New Mexicos are the same as Syracuse, NC State or teams at the bottom of POWER conferences.
And this is clearly shown in the BCS polls. Utah is #6 and Boise State is #9 because their conference is weak. Yes they are perfect, but beating lesser foes and becoming perfect does not make you elite. Do I believe Boise State deserves a shot at the BCS Title…absolutely not. Now, do I think they deserve a BCS Bowl?
That is different, because I think maybe they do. But the current system and the way it is set up won’t allow that. This is because the bowls have contractual obligations to those conferences, and something a lot of readers never think about…these bowls are also made in relation to distance.
A bowl in Florida is NOT going to court a team on the west coast unless it is absolutely sure that that university can make the trip and PAY those tickets. I don’t care what you think about the BCS, it is still about money, and each bowl committee has an obligation to make a profit, not put who YOU want in a bowl. So the problem with Boise State is that any bowl is going to want to ensure that the university can sell the tickets so they can make a profit. Can Boise State go to the Orange Bowl, can they sell enough tickets to make it worth while? That we do not know. I do believe that there should be some consideration for Boise State in a BCS bowl, but I also think that there is a way to solve this.
The NCAA added a fifth bowl just for the chance of a non-BCS team making the top 10, why not add one more? Throw in something like the Cotton Bowl, or some other mid-major bowl, creating two more slots. This way, you make more room 12 slots, and giving one or even two undefeated teams a chance to participate in the BCS bowls.
Now, we come to the last team, Ball State. Ball State is ranked pretty low on the BCS, at #15, even with a win last night and a possible win in the MAC Championship. Lots of people whined about them being able to have a chance in the BCS Bowl or the BCS Championship.
Easy question first, NO Ball State does NOT deserve a National Championship. Even though Boise State defeated a ranked team…ONE ranked team, it is one MORE than Ball State.
Ball State has defeated NO teams that are ranked or have been ranked, in the course of the season. NONE. How then can such a team dare to argue about contention for a National Championship? I truly hope that Ball State fans are not missing the point here, because I cheer for the underdog too, and there is great credit to what Ball State has done. But can you HONESTLY say that your record is equal to that of teams that has played tougher competition?
Ok, let’s look at who Ball State played this year: Northeastern, not to be confused with Northwestern. The first win for Ball State is a team currently 2-10. Second is Navy, which is probably the best team on their schedule, even at 7-4.
Akron is currently 5-6, Kent State is 3-8, just like Toledo, and Western Kentucky is 2-9. Yes, Ball State defeated Indiana, from a power conference, but this is the worst team in the Big 10 at 2-9. So tell me again why this perfect record deserves a shot at the National Title, when only 1 team thus far has a winning record?
Continuing, Eastern Michigan is currently 2-9, Northern Illinois is 6-6 and Miami (OH) is 2-9. The record of Ball State’s opponents is what, 31-70? Is THIS worthy of a reward of a National Title? How can you reward such a lofty goal when the road was so easy?
Now, we come to the last two games, Central Michigan and Western Michigan. Now, these two teams are 8-3 and 9-3, but if you check the schedule, neither of these teams beat anybody worthy of mentioning either. In fact, both Central and Western Michigan are examples of soft schedules, and even though the record LOOKS good, they were never ranked. Ball State gets ranked ONLY because they are undefeated, not because they had a tough schedule.
So we have to be honest, does Ball State deserve a National Championship, no. Do they deserve a BCS Bowl? That is hard, because if you reward them for a perfect record in a very soft conference, you then must wonder if they are better than an average team in the power conferences. Do you think a Ball State can beat Virginia, or South Florida, Arkansas, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Michigan State, or Arizona?
DO you?
I think as much as people would like to see Ball State vs. Boise State, I think the matchup should be against one of those teams. Sure, you’d like to see two perfect teams play each other, but what do you gain from it? If you want to make your case for next year, why not play somebody THIS year?
If Boise State cannot get in a BCS bowl, try to get a power conference team in a bowl. If Ball State cannot get in a BCS bowl, try to get a power conference team in a bowl. If you win, you set the stage for next year for serious consideration. We know Boise State beat a legit team, but it was only one legit team. Ball State has not done that, so use this year to earn respect, rather than trying to beg for it.
Until there is a playoff system, which ain’t gonna happen anytime soon with ESPN buying the rights to the bowls, lesser conference teams must earn respect by beating teams, not by having soft schedules and whining about why they are not listed amongst the best.
So….do undefeated teams DESERVE to be in the BCS. No. You earn respect by beating quality teams. If they are not on your schedule, PUT them on the schedule. Alabama deserves it because they survive a SEC conference, Utah ought to be considered because they are out of a tough conference this year and has defeated good teams. Boise State just can’t be considered for a National Championship because their schedule is too weak, but a BCS bowl might be ok. And Ball State… not a chance at a BCS Title, and sadly, not one for the BCS Bowl. Schedule some better teams and earn more respect, and then you force the NCAA to consider you.
Last night I was watching Ball State as they won their game, and also going perfect for the year. Because it was on ESPN, there was a lot of talk about whether non-BCS teams deserve to play in the National Championship, or even in the BCS.
There were a lot of people who felt that Ball State, currently 12-0, should have a shot a the BCS National Championship, or at least a BCS Bowl. Others feel that they don’t deserve a shot because they have not proven that they are worthy of such an honor.
One argument centers around the idea of rewarding teams with a perfect season. Where do we stand on it, especially with four undefeated teams left in the nation, as of this moment. Nobody will argue that IF Alabama goes undefeated, they clearly deserve a place in the National Championship, right?
RIGHT???
Come on folks, you don’t have to be an Alabama fan to understand that if a team in a power conference such as the SEC goes undefeated, they are in as one of the best teams in the nation. So there is no argument about that as of now. Don’t give me any cheap talk about “but what if Florida beats them”. We are talking about this very second, not what MIGHT happen.
Right now there are four undefeated teams, and nobody will argue Alabama’s record. But we do have problems with Utah, Boise State and Ball State. Many people want their team, who is currently undefeated, to play in the national championship. See that’s the problem with the “interactive” days on ESPN, most of those people who open their mouths are ONLY speaking out of extreme prejudice.
Ball State fans are obviously going to cry foul and even get mixed up in thinking that their team OUGHT to be one of the 2, or even 4 best teams in the nation. Now don’t get me mixed up here, I came from a small school too, in the Southern Conference, but a real sports fan has to understand if there is a legit argument.
So let’s address that. Do undefeated teams deserve to play in a BCS or National Championship. I can answer that right away with this answer…
NO.
Why? Because if you automatically award teams with a perfect record, you will then encourage teams to pervert the system for themselves. Teams will stop scheduling tougher records and go for softer ones, just to claim the “perfect” record. Let’s understand this folks, being perfect does not always mean being elite.
I say again, being perfect does NOT always mean being elite.
To me, there is an honorable way of winning, and having a perfect season, and then there are perversions to fool people. If having a perfect record was an automatic invite to the BCS or National Championship, then if I am an AD in a Division I school, I would schedule the softest record I can come up with. Imagine if somebody scheduled Washington, North Texas, Idaho, New Mexico State, Utah State, Washington State, and Eastern Michigan and going 7-0. Sure, the strength of schedule would truly suck, but there would still be people whining about “why can our team be in the BCS, we’re perfect so far?”
Awarding teams that way only leads to perversion, because athletic directors will find a way to “cheat the system” just to have a better record. So no, I do not believe an undefeated team should have an automatic invitation to the BCS Championship or BCS Bowl.
But let’s examine those four teams and argue each one. The easiest is the first…Alabama. They come out of the SEC, arguably the best or second best conference in the nation. Now, I will argue their strength of schedule because Clemson has fallen apart, LSU has fallen out of the top 25 and Georgia has been slipping, but I will not argue the strength of the SEC. So I have no arguments that Alabama is the best team in the nation…at this moment in time.
But then from there you drop down to #6 Utah. Now here, there is no question that Utah will be in a BCS bowl, but do they deserve to be in the National Championship? Utah defeats a team from the Big 10 (Michigan), defeats Air Force and ranked teams TCU and BYU, as well as Oregon State who is also currently ranked and headed for the Rose Bowl.. Utah clearly deserves a BCS Bowl, but a National Championship?
This one is hard, but if I had to argue against it, it goes back to the strength of the conference. Personally, I think if there had to be one more power conference this year, it must be the MWC. But we also know that Utah had some cupcakes in 2-10 San Diego State, 4-8 Wyoming and 4-8 New Mexico. The top 3 or 4 teams in the MWC are good, but after that, it’s not that impressive. And playing Weber State does not help either. I won’t argue Utah State, because you gotta keep your state rivals, but overall, this hurts Utah. It’s pretty clear, if you want to be in a serious chase for a National Championship, then PLAY serious contenders. But I say that with the greatest respect for Utah, I really like them.
Next is Boise State, a team that gave college fans one of the best games in recent memory, and one Oklahoma wants to forget. The problem is Boise State is currently #9 on the BCS polls, and will likely get knocked off the list because the BCS has to satisfy all the power conferences.
Now, does Boise State deserve a chance at a National Championship or a BCS Bowl? Remember, this team is undefeated and fans have been arguing that they deserve a shot… but does their schedule show this?
Remember folks, I strongly believe that just because you are perfect does NOT make you an automatic to a National Championship. Perfection can be perverted just like stats to say what YOU want, not what truly is. Of the four teams, Alabama is the only one out of a major conference, one NOBODY will argue on its strength. Utah is from a lesser conference, but NOBODY better argue that this team knocked off 3 ranked foes, and a pretty decent Air Force team.
But where does Boise State fit in? What is their resume? How many teams has Boise State defeated this year that were/are ranked? I think Oregon is the only one, and I will credit them with that game because it was away. But who else?
Idaho State? They are 1-11!
Bowling Green? They are 5-6!
Louisiana Tech? They are the second best team in the WAC at 7-4.
Southern Miss? They are 5-6!
Hawaii? They are 6-5.
San Jose State? 6-6, even though ESPN tried to bill that game up as something big.
New Mexico State? 3-8
Utah State? Even worse at 2-9!
Idaho? 2-10!
And Nevada? 6-5.
Most of Boise State’s teams are UNDER .500, and the conference is clearly not in league with the power conferences. This is where some people get a little drunk and think that Boise State could run the tables in the ACC or Big East… not likely folks. Don’t fool yourselves to think that the Idahos and New Mexicos are the same as Syracuse, NC State or teams at the bottom of POWER conferences.
And this is clearly shown in the BCS polls. Utah is #6 and Boise State is #9 because their conference is weak. Yes they are perfect, but beating lesser foes and becoming perfect does not make you elite. Do I believe Boise State deserves a shot at the BCS Title…absolutely not. Now, do I think they deserve a BCS Bowl?
That is different, because I think maybe they do. But the current system and the way it is set up won’t allow that. This is because the bowls have contractual obligations to those conferences, and something a lot of readers never think about…these bowls are also made in relation to distance.
A bowl in Florida is NOT going to court a team on the west coast unless it is absolutely sure that that university can make the trip and PAY those tickets. I don’t care what you think about the BCS, it is still about money, and each bowl committee has an obligation to make a profit, not put who YOU want in a bowl. So the problem with Boise State is that any bowl is going to want to ensure that the university can sell the tickets so they can make a profit. Can Boise State go to the Orange Bowl, can they sell enough tickets to make it worth while? That we do not know. I do believe that there should be some consideration for Boise State in a BCS bowl, but I also think that there is a way to solve this.
The NCAA added a fifth bowl just for the chance of a non-BCS team making the top 10, why not add one more? Throw in something like the Cotton Bowl, or some other mid-major bowl, creating two more slots. This way, you make more room 12 slots, and giving one or even two undefeated teams a chance to participate in the BCS bowls.
Now, we come to the last team, Ball State. Ball State is ranked pretty low on the BCS, at #15, even with a win last night and a possible win in the MAC Championship. Lots of people whined about them being able to have a chance in the BCS Bowl or the BCS Championship.
Easy question first, NO Ball State does NOT deserve a National Championship. Even though Boise State defeated a ranked team…ONE ranked team, it is one MORE than Ball State.
Ball State has defeated NO teams that are ranked or have been ranked, in the course of the season. NONE. How then can such a team dare to argue about contention for a National Championship? I truly hope that Ball State fans are not missing the point here, because I cheer for the underdog too, and there is great credit to what Ball State has done. But can you HONESTLY say that your record is equal to that of teams that has played tougher competition?
Ok, let’s look at who Ball State played this year: Northeastern, not to be confused with Northwestern. The first win for Ball State is a team currently 2-10. Second is Navy, which is probably the best team on their schedule, even at 7-4.
Akron is currently 5-6, Kent State is 3-8, just like Toledo, and Western Kentucky is 2-9. Yes, Ball State defeated Indiana, from a power conference, but this is the worst team in the Big 10 at 2-9. So tell me again why this perfect record deserves a shot at the National Title, when only 1 team thus far has a winning record?
Continuing, Eastern Michigan is currently 2-9, Northern Illinois is 6-6 and Miami (OH) is 2-9. The record of Ball State’s opponents is what, 31-70? Is THIS worthy of a reward of a National Title? How can you reward such a lofty goal when the road was so easy?
Now, we come to the last two games, Central Michigan and Western Michigan. Now, these two teams are 8-3 and 9-3, but if you check the schedule, neither of these teams beat anybody worthy of mentioning either. In fact, both Central and Western Michigan are examples of soft schedules, and even though the record LOOKS good, they were never ranked. Ball State gets ranked ONLY because they are undefeated, not because they had a tough schedule.
So we have to be honest, does Ball State deserve a National Championship, no. Do they deserve a BCS Bowl? That is hard, because if you reward them for a perfect record in a very soft conference, you then must wonder if they are better than an average team in the power conferences. Do you think a Ball State can beat Virginia, or South Florida, Arkansas, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Michigan State, or Arizona?
DO you?
I think as much as people would like to see Ball State vs. Boise State, I think the matchup should be against one of those teams. Sure, you’d like to see two perfect teams play each other, but what do you gain from it? If you want to make your case for next year, why not play somebody THIS year?
If Boise State cannot get in a BCS bowl, try to get a power conference team in a bowl. If Ball State cannot get in a BCS bowl, try to get a power conference team in a bowl. If you win, you set the stage for next year for serious consideration. We know Boise State beat a legit team, but it was only one legit team. Ball State has not done that, so use this year to earn respect, rather than trying to beg for it.
Until there is a playoff system, which ain’t gonna happen anytime soon with ESPN buying the rights to the bowls, lesser conference teams must earn respect by beating teams, not by having soft schedules and whining about why they are not listed amongst the best.
So….do undefeated teams DESERVE to be in the BCS. No. You earn respect by beating quality teams. If they are not on your schedule, PUT them on the schedule. Alabama deserves it because they survive a SEC conference, Utah ought to be considered because they are out of a tough conference this year and has defeated good teams. Boise State just can’t be considered for a National Championship because their schedule is too weak, but a BCS bowl might be ok. And Ball State… not a chance at a BCS Title, and sadly, not one for the BCS Bowl. Schedule some better teams and earn more respect, and then you force the NCAA to consider you.
Thursday, November 20, 2008
How many bowl seats left for college football?
Last seats for a bowl game
As of Thursday, November 20th, 2008, I counted 61 teams in the Division I, or FBS, that are now eligible for a bowl. I also count 34 different bowls, meaning there is room for 68 teams to enjoy a post season game. If I do the math, that means at this very moment, there is room for 7 more teams to qualify for a bowl, out of the almost 120 teams in the FBS.
That means there is seven more seats on this train to post seasonville, who wants a ticket?
Before we talk about who can get it, let’s first clear out who ain’t getting it. There are about 32 teams that no longer qualify for a bowl, meaning that there are about 26 teams left out there to fight for those precious 7 spots.
Hmmm, interesting. That means in most cases the record of the teams that have yet to qualify, but also are not DISqualified would be somewhere along the lines of 4-6, 5-5 or 6-4. Let’s take a look at some of these teams by conference and see what their chances are to make a bowl…if at all.
ACC: I made a blog awhile back on how this was the only conference that has the possibility of putting EVERY team in post season, or at least having a .500 or better record. That is still very true, as 4 teams are still in the hunt. NC State saved themselves with a big win, but with games vs. ranked UNC and ranked Miami, all it takes is one loss to end the season. Both Clemson and Virginia are 5-5, and this weekend’s game is huge because the winner qualifies for a bowl, IF the Citadel and South Carolina State games count for Clemson. If not, the Tigers must win their last two games against Virginia and South Carolina, or they are out. Virginia needs one more win, if the Richmond game counts, to make it to post season, and they can get it from either Clemson or VA Tech.
And then there is Duke, who needs to win their last two to qualify, but beating either UNC or VA Tech is not good news, and it looks like their time is coming to an end. I think one more team, likely Virginia, can become bowl eligible here.
Big 12: Only Colorado sits in limbo, trying to make it to a post season bowl. At 5-6, they need one more win to qualify…unfortunately it is against Nebraska. Granted that is not like the end of their season, but this is a game they must have. Can Colorado win this game and qualify? They are 0-4 on away games….that might be your answer.
Big East: Rutgers and Louisville have yet to qualify, and both teams are 5-5, meaning they have a pretty good chance to make it in the post season. With Rutgers having a 4-2 record in the conference, the chances seem greater for them than with 1-4 Louisville. But for either team, one more win is what they need. With Rutgers riding a 4-game winning streak, and playing Army, this ought to be the win they need. If not, it would come down to them and Louisville in their final game. For Louisville, they face two tough opponents in West Virginia and Rutgers. I can’t see how they can beat BOTH, but it is possible for them to beat one of them. It is quite likely they can qualify, along with Rutgers.
Big 10: Illinois is the lone remaining team that still has to fight to qualify for a bowl, at 5-6. With their biggest win of the year over hapless Michigan, and many embarrassing losses, it will be hard to see if Illinois can defeat Northwestern, who is having a pretty good year. Winning only one game away, this might be an uphill battle for them, and it is possible they may not qualify for a bowl.
A pause to note that we have identified 8 teams thus far, and of those, I think one more will qualify out of the ACC, and likely two from the Big East. I just don’t think the Big 12 or Big 10 will put any more in the post season. If that is true, then we have 3 seats filled, making a total of 64 teams…four seats remain.
Conference USA: This conference actually has four teams trying to make the post season. Yet here is a problem, with four teams already qualified, how deep can this conference really go in the bowls? For example, the ACC had 9 slots promised to them, but can Conference USA be so favored? Marshall is the most desperate team, at 4-6 they cannot afford another loss. But with games vs. the two best teams in the West Division, those being Rice and Tulsa, you can pretty much mark them out of post season.
That leaves Southern Miss, at 5-6, who MUST win their last game against SMU…well, that seems like a gimmie. Let’s assume Southern Mississippi wins, that still leaves Memphis and UTEP, both at 5-5. Memphis draws Central Florida, which isn’t a bad team, and finally Tulane, which should not be too much of a problem. I see Memphis splitting the two, but still qualifying. UTEP has Houston and ECU, both teams with a winning record. I think Memphis has a better chance of making it to a bowl than UTEP, if I had to choose one or the other, I’d have to take Memphis. So I think two more teams out of Conference USA can qualify.
Mid-American Conference: Two teams from this conference still have time to qualify: Bowling Green and Akron, both at 5-5. I think even if one or both qualify, they still may not go bowling if there is an abundance of FBS teams. But let’s see if they CAN qualify. Bowling Green has Buffalo and Toledo, the mix of a strong team and a weak team. If you can split it down the middle, then we can all agree that Bowling Green can get in the post season. Akron has it easier, playing Ohio and Temple, and could beat both.
But this plot goes a bit deeper. Both Bowling Green and Akron are fighting for the MAC Championship, and could get an extra game in the conference championship game. Akron would need a lot of help since they are in third, and have lost to the two ahead of them. Bowling Green needs to beat Buffalo, so that will be a huge game. But of these two teams, I can see both Akron and Bowling Green winning enough to qualify for a bowl.
Now, another pause, as we have now identified 14 teams, and of that I think four more teams can qualify, two from the MAC and two from CUSA. Technically that means all the seats are filled, but that isn’t very true. Just because we have the seats filled does not mean these teams will take those seats. There is still more to be decided.
Pac-10: Stanford, UCLA and Arizona State still vie to make it to the post season. Of these teams, UCLA and Arizona State are in trouble, needing 2 wins. And ironically enough, UCLA and Arizona State play this weekend, with the loser being knocked out. Both teams are 4-6 and cannot afford another loss, but one will get one. And IF Arizona State wins, they must play Arizona and win to qualify. IF UCLA wins, they must play USC…and we KNOW that won’t be good. It is quite possible that neither of these teams will qualify. But what of Stanford? With one game left, they face California to determine if they can go to a bowl or not. This will be a very tough game to call, and we’d like to think that maybe they can give Cal a run for their money, but I think it will be a stretch for Stanford to qualify. I didn’t say it was impossible, I said it would be a stretch. So I can’t see any of these teams qualifying for a bowl.
SEC: Arkansas and Auburn are in the last legs of their journey, trying to buy time for an extra game after the regular season is over. For both teams, a loss ends the season. For Arkansas, a 4-6 record means they MUST win out, meaning wins over Mississippi State and LSU…maybe they can win one, but not both. Auburn is 5-6 and must win just to qualify, but have only one game left….unfortunately, that last game is against Alabama, the number one team in the nation. Everything hangs on this huge game…I won’t doubt that Auburn CAN beat them, but I am not sure if they can.
Sun Belt: This little-known conference has FIVE teams that can still qualify for a bowl…but who are we kidding? They might put 3 in at best. Middle Tennessee State must win their last two games to qualify, one against lowly North Texas. While that should be an easy win, they must also play LA-Lafayette. It would be hard to expect them to win two, so I might rule them out. But the way the Sun Belt goes, it is almost even for the top 5 or 6 teams, so who can really tell?
Arkansas State actually has 3 games left, so must win 2 of three. With one being against North Texas, and one being against the top team in the Sun Belt (Troy), you can split the difference. The game vs. Florida Atlantic will be the deciding factor, and again, this is hard to call. Speaking of Florida Atlantic, they are 5-5 with two games remaining, those being Florida International and Arkansas State. Again, with a conference so tight, you might just play it safe and split it down the middle. That means we can have 3 more teams from the Sun Belt qualifying for a bowl.
Florida International is another of those 4-5 teams that must face LA-Monroe, Florida Atlantic and Western Kentucky, needing to win 2 of those three games. It could come down to the WKU game, a 2-9 team that might just help Florida International to become bowl eligible. That leaves LA-Lafayette, with a 5-5 record, needing one win out of two remaining games. They have Troy and Middle Tennessee State, so again, we might be looking at a split. If so, the Sun Belt could possibly provide SIX teams, but we know they won’t all get in, so it might be about who has the BEST record outside of the Sun Belt Champion.
MWC: Colorado State and UNLV are left with a single game to win to qualify for a bowl, both are 5-6 and need that win like Scooby Doo needs a Scooby snack. Colorado State has a good chance because they play Wyoming who is currently 4-7, while UNLV must face San Diego State, which is even worse at 1-10. You can pretty much put two more teams into post season eligibility. And when you consider that this conference has tough teams like Air Force, Utah, BYU and TCU, this could make Colorado State and UNLV attractive to some low-level bowl.
WAC: And finally there is Hawaii, amazing how much a year changes things. With three games left, and with a 5-5 record, they need to win at least six games to qualify. With games vs. Idaho, Washington State and Cincinnati, all at home, they can easily qualify with two wins. I think they will get that, but it is a FAR cry from one year ago, when they shocked the nation.
So, that brings us to 27 teams I have identified that can become bowl eligible. We know they won’t all qualify, and as we said at the top there is only about 7 spots available. I believe of those 27, I can see about 12 teams qualifying, but several coming from the Sun Belt. This means that the bowls will have all the teams they need to fill all those bowls, and will probably be enticed to add yet ANOTHER new bowl next year. As I see it, there may be 6 to 8 teams that may qualify, but not play.
We’ll see how this all plays out.
As of Thursday, November 20th, 2008, I counted 61 teams in the Division I, or FBS, that are now eligible for a bowl. I also count 34 different bowls, meaning there is room for 68 teams to enjoy a post season game. If I do the math, that means at this very moment, there is room for 7 more teams to qualify for a bowl, out of the almost 120 teams in the FBS.
That means there is seven more seats on this train to post seasonville, who wants a ticket?
Before we talk about who can get it, let’s first clear out who ain’t getting it. There are about 32 teams that no longer qualify for a bowl, meaning that there are about 26 teams left out there to fight for those precious 7 spots.
Hmmm, interesting. That means in most cases the record of the teams that have yet to qualify, but also are not DISqualified would be somewhere along the lines of 4-6, 5-5 or 6-4. Let’s take a look at some of these teams by conference and see what their chances are to make a bowl…if at all.
ACC: I made a blog awhile back on how this was the only conference that has the possibility of putting EVERY team in post season, or at least having a .500 or better record. That is still very true, as 4 teams are still in the hunt. NC State saved themselves with a big win, but with games vs. ranked UNC and ranked Miami, all it takes is one loss to end the season. Both Clemson and Virginia are 5-5, and this weekend’s game is huge because the winner qualifies for a bowl, IF the Citadel and South Carolina State games count for Clemson. If not, the Tigers must win their last two games against Virginia and South Carolina, or they are out. Virginia needs one more win, if the Richmond game counts, to make it to post season, and they can get it from either Clemson or VA Tech.
And then there is Duke, who needs to win their last two to qualify, but beating either UNC or VA Tech is not good news, and it looks like their time is coming to an end. I think one more team, likely Virginia, can become bowl eligible here.
Big 12: Only Colorado sits in limbo, trying to make it to a post season bowl. At 5-6, they need one more win to qualify…unfortunately it is against Nebraska. Granted that is not like the end of their season, but this is a game they must have. Can Colorado win this game and qualify? They are 0-4 on away games….that might be your answer.
Big East: Rutgers and Louisville have yet to qualify, and both teams are 5-5, meaning they have a pretty good chance to make it in the post season. With Rutgers having a 4-2 record in the conference, the chances seem greater for them than with 1-4 Louisville. But for either team, one more win is what they need. With Rutgers riding a 4-game winning streak, and playing Army, this ought to be the win they need. If not, it would come down to them and Louisville in their final game. For Louisville, they face two tough opponents in West Virginia and Rutgers. I can’t see how they can beat BOTH, but it is possible for them to beat one of them. It is quite likely they can qualify, along with Rutgers.
Big 10: Illinois is the lone remaining team that still has to fight to qualify for a bowl, at 5-6. With their biggest win of the year over hapless Michigan, and many embarrassing losses, it will be hard to see if Illinois can defeat Northwestern, who is having a pretty good year. Winning only one game away, this might be an uphill battle for them, and it is possible they may not qualify for a bowl.
A pause to note that we have identified 8 teams thus far, and of those, I think one more will qualify out of the ACC, and likely two from the Big East. I just don’t think the Big 12 or Big 10 will put any more in the post season. If that is true, then we have 3 seats filled, making a total of 64 teams…four seats remain.
Conference USA: This conference actually has four teams trying to make the post season. Yet here is a problem, with four teams already qualified, how deep can this conference really go in the bowls? For example, the ACC had 9 slots promised to them, but can Conference USA be so favored? Marshall is the most desperate team, at 4-6 they cannot afford another loss. But with games vs. the two best teams in the West Division, those being Rice and Tulsa, you can pretty much mark them out of post season.
That leaves Southern Miss, at 5-6, who MUST win their last game against SMU…well, that seems like a gimmie. Let’s assume Southern Mississippi wins, that still leaves Memphis and UTEP, both at 5-5. Memphis draws Central Florida, which isn’t a bad team, and finally Tulane, which should not be too much of a problem. I see Memphis splitting the two, but still qualifying. UTEP has Houston and ECU, both teams with a winning record. I think Memphis has a better chance of making it to a bowl than UTEP, if I had to choose one or the other, I’d have to take Memphis. So I think two more teams out of Conference USA can qualify.
Mid-American Conference: Two teams from this conference still have time to qualify: Bowling Green and Akron, both at 5-5. I think even if one or both qualify, they still may not go bowling if there is an abundance of FBS teams. But let’s see if they CAN qualify. Bowling Green has Buffalo and Toledo, the mix of a strong team and a weak team. If you can split it down the middle, then we can all agree that Bowling Green can get in the post season. Akron has it easier, playing Ohio and Temple, and could beat both.
But this plot goes a bit deeper. Both Bowling Green and Akron are fighting for the MAC Championship, and could get an extra game in the conference championship game. Akron would need a lot of help since they are in third, and have lost to the two ahead of them. Bowling Green needs to beat Buffalo, so that will be a huge game. But of these two teams, I can see both Akron and Bowling Green winning enough to qualify for a bowl.
Now, another pause, as we have now identified 14 teams, and of that I think four more teams can qualify, two from the MAC and two from CUSA. Technically that means all the seats are filled, but that isn’t very true. Just because we have the seats filled does not mean these teams will take those seats. There is still more to be decided.
Pac-10: Stanford, UCLA and Arizona State still vie to make it to the post season. Of these teams, UCLA and Arizona State are in trouble, needing 2 wins. And ironically enough, UCLA and Arizona State play this weekend, with the loser being knocked out. Both teams are 4-6 and cannot afford another loss, but one will get one. And IF Arizona State wins, they must play Arizona and win to qualify. IF UCLA wins, they must play USC…and we KNOW that won’t be good. It is quite possible that neither of these teams will qualify. But what of Stanford? With one game left, they face California to determine if they can go to a bowl or not. This will be a very tough game to call, and we’d like to think that maybe they can give Cal a run for their money, but I think it will be a stretch for Stanford to qualify. I didn’t say it was impossible, I said it would be a stretch. So I can’t see any of these teams qualifying for a bowl.
SEC: Arkansas and Auburn are in the last legs of their journey, trying to buy time for an extra game after the regular season is over. For both teams, a loss ends the season. For Arkansas, a 4-6 record means they MUST win out, meaning wins over Mississippi State and LSU…maybe they can win one, but not both. Auburn is 5-6 and must win just to qualify, but have only one game left….unfortunately, that last game is against Alabama, the number one team in the nation. Everything hangs on this huge game…I won’t doubt that Auburn CAN beat them, but I am not sure if they can.
Sun Belt: This little-known conference has FIVE teams that can still qualify for a bowl…but who are we kidding? They might put 3 in at best. Middle Tennessee State must win their last two games to qualify, one against lowly North Texas. While that should be an easy win, they must also play LA-Lafayette. It would be hard to expect them to win two, so I might rule them out. But the way the Sun Belt goes, it is almost even for the top 5 or 6 teams, so who can really tell?
Arkansas State actually has 3 games left, so must win 2 of three. With one being against North Texas, and one being against the top team in the Sun Belt (Troy), you can split the difference. The game vs. Florida Atlantic will be the deciding factor, and again, this is hard to call. Speaking of Florida Atlantic, they are 5-5 with two games remaining, those being Florida International and Arkansas State. Again, with a conference so tight, you might just play it safe and split it down the middle. That means we can have 3 more teams from the Sun Belt qualifying for a bowl.
Florida International is another of those 4-5 teams that must face LA-Monroe, Florida Atlantic and Western Kentucky, needing to win 2 of those three games. It could come down to the WKU game, a 2-9 team that might just help Florida International to become bowl eligible. That leaves LA-Lafayette, with a 5-5 record, needing one win out of two remaining games. They have Troy and Middle Tennessee State, so again, we might be looking at a split. If so, the Sun Belt could possibly provide SIX teams, but we know they won’t all get in, so it might be about who has the BEST record outside of the Sun Belt Champion.
MWC: Colorado State and UNLV are left with a single game to win to qualify for a bowl, both are 5-6 and need that win like Scooby Doo needs a Scooby snack. Colorado State has a good chance because they play Wyoming who is currently 4-7, while UNLV must face San Diego State, which is even worse at 1-10. You can pretty much put two more teams into post season eligibility. And when you consider that this conference has tough teams like Air Force, Utah, BYU and TCU, this could make Colorado State and UNLV attractive to some low-level bowl.
WAC: And finally there is Hawaii, amazing how much a year changes things. With three games left, and with a 5-5 record, they need to win at least six games to qualify. With games vs. Idaho, Washington State and Cincinnati, all at home, they can easily qualify with two wins. I think they will get that, but it is a FAR cry from one year ago, when they shocked the nation.
So, that brings us to 27 teams I have identified that can become bowl eligible. We know they won’t all qualify, and as we said at the top there is only about 7 spots available. I believe of those 27, I can see about 12 teams qualifying, but several coming from the Sun Belt. This means that the bowls will have all the teams they need to fill all those bowls, and will probably be enticed to add yet ANOTHER new bowl next year. As I see it, there may be 6 to 8 teams that may qualify, but not play.
We’ll see how this all plays out.
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
5 BCS Bowls
The Nature of Sports Blogging
I started sports blogging a couple of months ago, and I currently blog on three different sites; Blogspot is my main home for blogging, and I also have Blogster and Wordpress. In the last two months I have written about 100 blogs, mostly on college football, and on the NFL. I have also written some blogs on wrestling, something I am interested in as well.
But I wanted to take a moment to just reflect on the nature of blogging, or in this case, sports blogging? Why do I do it…why do WE do it? For some, it’s just a way to voice an opinion to the world, or whomever will read it. For others, there is money involved, as some sports bloggers are hired to write for newspapers or different sites and such.
To me, I enjoy the idea of debate, and sports is the safest way to do that. Now some of you may not agree, because often times sports fanatics are the most brainless people in the world, but in the most extreme, the world of sports is just a part of humanity.
For those who read my blogs, I truly thank you, because it means I am not just talking to the wall. We all have things we think are important, and often times we disagree, but I hope that we can get to a point where IF we disagree, then we can at least do it with some respect.
I don’t say that as a perfect person, because I am at fault when my emotions take over. For example, some readers out there are fans of Notre Dame… you know where I stand on that if you have read my blogs. But even though I am not a Notre Dame fan, that does not mean that every Notre Dame fan is worthless in my eyes. If I get to that point in my life where I place my faults of a team on their fans, then I am less than an honorable man.
Heck, I am an Oakland Raiders fan, but I know we stink. I know Mr. Monty Burns is running things with an iron talon, and unless he changes, there is little to root for, but it is still my team. Good or bad, I have to still have a place for them. So I understand how others may feel about their favorite team, even when things are not going to great. One of the better examples I can share is with Green Bay, and their Packers.
I personally felt that the organization screwed Brett Farve by running him out, and making sure he would never set foot on Lambeau Field as a player ever again… dirty rotten scoundrels. But as angry as I was against the organization, there was no way I could say that about the fans, because that was their team. Good or bad, it was still their team, and they had to root for the Packers. As much as I would like to smile at their 5-5 record while the Jets are 7-3, that would only be prideful, because I understand that the Packer Nation stands by their team, which is greatly honorable.
But that’s the nature of sports, to support YOUR team as best you can, even when things are not going so well. No different with sports blogging either. When I talk about sports, I know that anything negative said might be taken out of context by a fan of that same team. If I said something negative about Alabama, somebody might take it the wrong way. If I said something negative about Duke Basketball, somebody might take it the wrong way. If I said something negative about the Lakers, somebody might take it the wrong way. But I also understand that this is the life of a sports blogger.
When I blog, I try to be as fair and respectful of teams as I can, but I am not so pure in thought that I can’t get upset about certain things in sports. I don’t like the way Notre Dame ditched their former coach, and paid their current coach for a less than impressive career. I don’t like the way Nebraska ran out their former coach because they expected to win National Championships every year. I don’t appreciate how Southern Mississippi kicked out their coach who only won bowl games and graduated players, because they felt it was time for a mid-card team to rise to national prominence.
I don’t like how Kentucky Basketball kicked out their coach who led them to a National Title, heck, there are a LOT of things I don’t like, and sometimes I get more emotional about that when I blog. But most times I try to keep a fair temper about me, understanding that the teams I may not like have strong supporters because those people live in that area, or went to school there, or have some strong tie with that team.
Sports blogging by a lot of folks is just a platform to claim why their team is better than anybody elses…that isn’t what I am here to do. I have loved sports for a long time, and truly enjoy the debates of what sports bring. I love talking about the BCS because it proves that no matter how you do it, it will never be perfect…simply because man isn’t perfect. I love talking about the NFL’s greatest running backs, because even though I have my thoughts, there are only my opinions. I love talking about wrestling because not everybody likes wrestling, but some do.
Sports blogging is my way of asking you to let me in your head, and debate some things with you. And if you allow me, then I am very grateful. We don’t have to agree on everything, but if we can just agree that we love sports, then I can live with that.
I started sports blogging a couple of months ago, and I currently blog on three different sites; Blogspot is my main home for blogging, and I also have Blogster and Wordpress. In the last two months I have written about 100 blogs, mostly on college football, and on the NFL. I have also written some blogs on wrestling, something I am interested in as well.
But I wanted to take a moment to just reflect on the nature of blogging, or in this case, sports blogging? Why do I do it…why do WE do it? For some, it’s just a way to voice an opinion to the world, or whomever will read it. For others, there is money involved, as some sports bloggers are hired to write for newspapers or different sites and such.
To me, I enjoy the idea of debate, and sports is the safest way to do that. Now some of you may not agree, because often times sports fanatics are the most brainless people in the world, but in the most extreme, the world of sports is just a part of humanity.
For those who read my blogs, I truly thank you, because it means I am not just talking to the wall. We all have things we think are important, and often times we disagree, but I hope that we can get to a point where IF we disagree, then we can at least do it with some respect.
I don’t say that as a perfect person, because I am at fault when my emotions take over. For example, some readers out there are fans of Notre Dame… you know where I stand on that if you have read my blogs. But even though I am not a Notre Dame fan, that does not mean that every Notre Dame fan is worthless in my eyes. If I get to that point in my life where I place my faults of a team on their fans, then I am less than an honorable man.
Heck, I am an Oakland Raiders fan, but I know we stink. I know Mr. Monty Burns is running things with an iron talon, and unless he changes, there is little to root for, but it is still my team. Good or bad, I have to still have a place for them. So I understand how others may feel about their favorite team, even when things are not going to great. One of the better examples I can share is with Green Bay, and their Packers.
I personally felt that the organization screwed Brett Farve by running him out, and making sure he would never set foot on Lambeau Field as a player ever again… dirty rotten scoundrels. But as angry as I was against the organization, there was no way I could say that about the fans, because that was their team. Good or bad, it was still their team, and they had to root for the Packers. As much as I would like to smile at their 5-5 record while the Jets are 7-3, that would only be prideful, because I understand that the Packer Nation stands by their team, which is greatly honorable.
But that’s the nature of sports, to support YOUR team as best you can, even when things are not going so well. No different with sports blogging either. When I talk about sports, I know that anything negative said might be taken out of context by a fan of that same team. If I said something negative about Alabama, somebody might take it the wrong way. If I said something negative about Duke Basketball, somebody might take it the wrong way. If I said something negative about the Lakers, somebody might take it the wrong way. But I also understand that this is the life of a sports blogger.
When I blog, I try to be as fair and respectful of teams as I can, but I am not so pure in thought that I can’t get upset about certain things in sports. I don’t like the way Notre Dame ditched their former coach, and paid their current coach for a less than impressive career. I don’t like the way Nebraska ran out their former coach because they expected to win National Championships every year. I don’t appreciate how Southern Mississippi kicked out their coach who only won bowl games and graduated players, because they felt it was time for a mid-card team to rise to national prominence.
I don’t like how Kentucky Basketball kicked out their coach who led them to a National Title, heck, there are a LOT of things I don’t like, and sometimes I get more emotional about that when I blog. But most times I try to keep a fair temper about me, understanding that the teams I may not like have strong supporters because those people live in that area, or went to school there, or have some strong tie with that team.
Sports blogging by a lot of folks is just a platform to claim why their team is better than anybody elses…that isn’t what I am here to do. I have loved sports for a long time, and truly enjoy the debates of what sports bring. I love talking about the BCS because it proves that no matter how you do it, it will never be perfect…simply because man isn’t perfect. I love talking about the NFL’s greatest running backs, because even though I have my thoughts, there are only my opinions. I love talking about wrestling because not everybody likes wrestling, but some do.
Sports blogging is my way of asking you to let me in your head, and debate some things with you. And if you allow me, then I am very grateful. We don’t have to agree on everything, but if we can just agree that we love sports, then I can live with that.
BCS Playoffs, scenario #4
BCS Playoffs, Scenario #4
In light of the idea that our President-Elect says that he would like to see an 8-game playoffs in the BCS, I thought I’d open the portals of the alternate worlds and see how that would shape up.
Now, we know that with ESPN now dropping money on the BCS, they are not likely to do anything for awhile. Ironic, since a lot of their sports broadcasters have been whining for a BCS Playoff…will they have a gag order by Mickey Mouse?
(get it?)
So, I went to the secret parts of my house, and opened my closet to find the portals to the other universes, where there actually ARE playoffs. After getting lost and ending up in Narnia, I found the right portal and looked at how this year’s playoffs would have presented itself. This is what I saw:
In this world where there was a BCS Playoff, it was decided that the top 8 teams would represent the NCAA, and the best teams play the lesser teams. From the current top 25 BCS Standings, this was the initial matchups:
As the current #1 team in the nation, Alabama would face the lowest ranked team, that being #8 Penn State.
As the current #2 team in the nation, Texas Tech would then face the second lowest team, that being #7 Utah.
Texas, being the third ranked team in the BCS, would play the sixth ranked USC Trojans, and the fourth and fifth ranked teams would play against each other, that being Florida and Oklahoma.
The highest ranked winning teams would face the lowest ranked team that advanced, and the other two winners would play each other. In what I could make out, I saw Texas Tech defeat Utah and advancing on to the semi-finals. I also saw Texas defeating USC and Florida in a close one over Oklahoma. I really can’t make out the winner of the Alabama vs. Penn State game, but I think Penn State might have won… not quite sure.
If that is true, then Texas Tech becomes the highest remaining team, and would then play Penn State, while Florida plays Texas. From the cloudy mists I think I make out that Texas Tech was a bit too much for Penn State, although I was rooting for Penn State. And in a very classic match, I can’t see who wins that Florida/Texas game, but I would pay to see it again.
So it looks like Texas Tech plays either Texas in a rematch, or Florida. It will either be another classic Big 12 game, or the end-all of “who’s better”. The Big 12 vs. the SEC in a historic matchup. I wanted to see who won that game, but it started getting a bit too cloudy for me…but I think I saw some orange….
Yet this was not without controversy. Although the top eight teams were involved by BCS standards, other teams were not happy with the result. Boise State, ranked #9, was not happy that they were not involved, even with a perfect record, and even though well out the picture, ranked at #17, Ball State felt that they should have been considered as well.
In addition, other conference were also disappointed. The ACC was upset because even though they had no top 10 teams, they were clearly the most competitive conference in the nation, having 8 teams currently qualified for post season play, and currently NO teams disqualified. No other conference could say that. The Big East argued similar points, although they didn’t have as much credibility as the ACC. Both conferences felt that Utah, Boise State and Ball State would not have been so great if they were in a better conference.
It would appear that more work is needed to fix this problem, as the debate continues about the BCS Playoffs. Maybe if I find another portal I can see how other universes solve this problem….until then, we still have great bowls.
In light of the idea that our President-Elect says that he would like to see an 8-game playoffs in the BCS, I thought I’d open the portals of the alternate worlds and see how that would shape up.
Now, we know that with ESPN now dropping money on the BCS, they are not likely to do anything for awhile. Ironic, since a lot of their sports broadcasters have been whining for a BCS Playoff…will they have a gag order by Mickey Mouse?
(get it?)
So, I went to the secret parts of my house, and opened my closet to find the portals to the other universes, where there actually ARE playoffs. After getting lost and ending up in Narnia, I found the right portal and looked at how this year’s playoffs would have presented itself. This is what I saw:
In this world where there was a BCS Playoff, it was decided that the top 8 teams would represent the NCAA, and the best teams play the lesser teams. From the current top 25 BCS Standings, this was the initial matchups:
As the current #1 team in the nation, Alabama would face the lowest ranked team, that being #8 Penn State.
As the current #2 team in the nation, Texas Tech would then face the second lowest team, that being #7 Utah.
Texas, being the third ranked team in the BCS, would play the sixth ranked USC Trojans, and the fourth and fifth ranked teams would play against each other, that being Florida and Oklahoma.
The highest ranked winning teams would face the lowest ranked team that advanced, and the other two winners would play each other. In what I could make out, I saw Texas Tech defeat Utah and advancing on to the semi-finals. I also saw Texas defeating USC and Florida in a close one over Oklahoma. I really can’t make out the winner of the Alabama vs. Penn State game, but I think Penn State might have won… not quite sure.
If that is true, then Texas Tech becomes the highest remaining team, and would then play Penn State, while Florida plays Texas. From the cloudy mists I think I make out that Texas Tech was a bit too much for Penn State, although I was rooting for Penn State. And in a very classic match, I can’t see who wins that Florida/Texas game, but I would pay to see it again.
So it looks like Texas Tech plays either Texas in a rematch, or Florida. It will either be another classic Big 12 game, or the end-all of “who’s better”. The Big 12 vs. the SEC in a historic matchup. I wanted to see who won that game, but it started getting a bit too cloudy for me…but I think I saw some orange….
Yet this was not without controversy. Although the top eight teams were involved by BCS standards, other teams were not happy with the result. Boise State, ranked #9, was not happy that they were not involved, even with a perfect record, and even though well out the picture, ranked at #17, Ball State felt that they should have been considered as well.
In addition, other conference were also disappointed. The ACC was upset because even though they had no top 10 teams, they were clearly the most competitive conference in the nation, having 8 teams currently qualified for post season play, and currently NO teams disqualified. No other conference could say that. The Big East argued similar points, although they didn’t have as much credibility as the ACC. Both conferences felt that Utah, Boise State and Ball State would not have been so great if they were in a better conference.
It would appear that more work is needed to fix this problem, as the debate continues about the BCS Playoffs. Maybe if I find another portal I can see how other universes solve this problem….until then, we still have great bowls.
Nature of Sports Blogging
The Nature of Sports Blogging
I started sports blogging a couple of months ago, and I currently blog on three different sites; Blogspot is my main home for blogging, and I also have Blogster and Wordpress. In the last two months I have written about 100 blogs, mostly on college football, and on the NFL. I have also written some blogs on wrestling, something I am interested in as well.
But I wanted to take a moment to just reflect on the nature of blogging, or in this case, sports blogging? Why do I do it…why do WE do it? For some, it’s just a way to voice an opinion to the world, or whomever will read it. For others, there is money involved, as some sports bloggers are hired to write for newspapers or different sites and such.
To me, I enjoy the idea of debate, and sports is the safest way to do that. Now some of you may not agree, because often times sports fanatics are the most brainless people in the world, but in the most extreme, the world of sports is just a part of humanity.
For those who read my blogs, I truly thank you, because it means I am not just talking to the wall. We all have things we think are important, and often times we disagree, but I hope that we can get to a point where IF we disagree, then we can at least do it with some respect.
I don’t say that as a perfect person, because I am at fault when my emotions take over. For example, some readers out there are fans of Notre Dame… you know where I stand on that if you have read my blogs. But even though I am not a Notre Dame fan, that does not mean that every Notre Dame fan is worthless in my eyes. If I get to that point in my life where I place my faults of a team on their fans, then I am less than an honorable man.
Heck, I am an Oakland Raiders fan, but I know we stink. I know Mr. Monty Burns is running things with an iron talon, and unless he changes, there is little to root for, but it is still my team. Good or bad, I have to still have a place for them. So I understand how others may feel about their favorite team, even when things are not going to great. One of the better examples I can share is with Green Bay, and their Packers.
I personally felt that the organization screwed Brett Farve by running him out, and making sure he would never set foot on Lambeau Field as a player ever again… dirty rotten scoundrels. But as angry as I was against the organization, there was no way I could say that about the fans, because that was their team. Good or bad, it was still their team, and they had to root for the Packers. As much as I would like to smile at their 5-5 record while the Jets are 7-3, that would only be prideful, because I understand that the Packer Nation stands by their team, which is greatly honorable.
But that’s the nature of sports, to support YOUR team as best you can, even when things are not going so well. No different with sports blogging either. When I talk about sports, I know that anything negative said might be taken out of context by a fan of that same team. If I said something negative about Alabama, somebody might take it the wrong way. If I said something negative about Duke Basketball, somebody might take it the wrong way. If I said something negative about the Lakers, somebody might take it the wrong way. But I also understand that this is the life of a sports blogger.
When I blog, I try to be as fair and respectful of teams as I can, but I am not so pure in thought that I can’t get upset about certain things in sports. I don’t like the way Notre Dame ditched their former coach, and paid their current coach for a less than impressive career. I don’t like the way Nebraska ran out their former coach because they expected to win National Championships every year. I don’t appreciate how Southern Mississippi kicked out their coach who only won bowl games and graduated players, because they felt it was time for a mid-card team to rise to national prominence.
I don’t like how Kentucky Basketball kicked out their coach who led them to a National Title, heck, there are a LOT of things I don’t like, and sometimes I get more emotional about that when I blog. But most times I try to keep a fair temper about me, understanding that the teams I may not like have strong supporters because those people live in that area, or went to school there, or have some strong tie with that team.
Sports blogging by a lot of folks is just a platform to claim why their team is better than anybody elses…that isn’t what I am here to do. I have loved sports for a long time, and truly enjoy the debates of what sports bring. I love talking about the BCS because it proves that no matter how you do it, it will never be perfect…simply because man isn’t perfect. I love talking about the NFL’s greatest running backs, because even though I have my thoughts, there are only my opinions. I love talking about wrestling because not everybody likes wrestling, but some do.
Sports blogging is my way of asking you to let me in your head, and debate some things with you. And if you allow me, then I am very grateful. We don’t have to agree on everything, but if we can just agree that we love sports, then I can live with that.
I started sports blogging a couple of months ago, and I currently blog on three different sites; Blogspot is my main home for blogging, and I also have Blogster and Wordpress. In the last two months I have written about 100 blogs, mostly on college football, and on the NFL. I have also written some blogs on wrestling, something I am interested in as well.
But I wanted to take a moment to just reflect on the nature of blogging, or in this case, sports blogging? Why do I do it…why do WE do it? For some, it’s just a way to voice an opinion to the world, or whomever will read it. For others, there is money involved, as some sports bloggers are hired to write for newspapers or different sites and such.
To me, I enjoy the idea of debate, and sports is the safest way to do that. Now some of you may not agree, because often times sports fanatics are the most brainless people in the world, but in the most extreme, the world of sports is just a part of humanity.
For those who read my blogs, I truly thank you, because it means I am not just talking to the wall. We all have things we think are important, and often times we disagree, but I hope that we can get to a point where IF we disagree, then we can at least do it with some respect.
I don’t say that as a perfect person, because I am at fault when my emotions take over. For example, some readers out there are fans of Notre Dame… you know where I stand on that if you have read my blogs. But even though I am not a Notre Dame fan, that does not mean that every Notre Dame fan is worthless in my eyes. If I get to that point in my life where I place my faults of a team on their fans, then I am less than an honorable man.
Heck, I am an Oakland Raiders fan, but I know we stink. I know Mr. Monty Burns is running things with an iron talon, and unless he changes, there is little to root for, but it is still my team. Good or bad, I have to still have a place for them. So I understand how others may feel about their favorite team, even when things are not going to great. One of the better examples I can share is with Green Bay, and their Packers.
I personally felt that the organization screwed Brett Farve by running him out, and making sure he would never set foot on Lambeau Field as a player ever again… dirty rotten scoundrels. But as angry as I was against the organization, there was no way I could say that about the fans, because that was their team. Good or bad, it was still their team, and they had to root for the Packers. As much as I would like to smile at their 5-5 record while the Jets are 7-3, that would only be prideful, because I understand that the Packer Nation stands by their team, which is greatly honorable.
But that’s the nature of sports, to support YOUR team as best you can, even when things are not going so well. No different with sports blogging either. When I talk about sports, I know that anything negative said might be taken out of context by a fan of that same team. If I said something negative about Alabama, somebody might take it the wrong way. If I said something negative about Duke Basketball, somebody might take it the wrong way. If I said something negative about the Lakers, somebody might take it the wrong way. But I also understand that this is the life of a sports blogger.
When I blog, I try to be as fair and respectful of teams as I can, but I am not so pure in thought that I can’t get upset about certain things in sports. I don’t like the way Notre Dame ditched their former coach, and paid their current coach for a less than impressive career. I don’t like the way Nebraska ran out their former coach because they expected to win National Championships every year. I don’t appreciate how Southern Mississippi kicked out their coach who only won bowl games and graduated players, because they felt it was time for a mid-card team to rise to national prominence.
I don’t like how Kentucky Basketball kicked out their coach who led them to a National Title, heck, there are a LOT of things I don’t like, and sometimes I get more emotional about that when I blog. But most times I try to keep a fair temper about me, understanding that the teams I may not like have strong supporters because those people live in that area, or went to school there, or have some strong tie with that team.
Sports blogging by a lot of folks is just a platform to claim why their team is better than anybody elses…that isn’t what I am here to do. I have loved sports for a long time, and truly enjoy the debates of what sports bring. I love talking about the BCS because it proves that no matter how you do it, it will never be perfect…simply because man isn’t perfect. I love talking about the NFL’s greatest running backs, because even though I have my thoughts, there are only my opinions. I love talking about wrestling because not everybody likes wrestling, but some do.
Sports blogging is my way of asking you to let me in your head, and debate some things with you. And if you allow me, then I am very grateful. We don’t have to agree on everything, but if we can just agree that we love sports, then I can live with that.
Thursday, November 13, 2008
BCS and BCS Busters
BCS Busters?
I wanted to make a quick blog about this issue since I hear it so much on television. For the novice to college football, I will back up just a bit to explain what I am talking about:
In Division I-A (now called FBS, or FCW or ECW or WWE or CBS or something) there are several conferences, and currently 4 Independent schools. The “power” conferences are the big six, which consistently have the best teams in the nation. Those conferences are, not in any order, ACC, Big East, Big 10, Big 12, Pac 10 and SEC. From these schools come your national champions (in most cases).
But these are not the only conferences in Division IA, there are a few others. I mentioned there are 4 Independent schools, those being Navy, Army, Western Kentucky and Notre Dame (of which many read my blog on “The Fate of ND”)
But as mentioned, there are other conferences. These conferences include Conference USA, Mid-American Conference, The Mountain West Conference, Sun Belt Conference and the Western Athletic Conference. These conferences are known as the “lesser” power conferences, but I do not say that in any ill will to them.
When the NCAA began putting together the BCS, or Bowl Championship Series, it was designed originally to pit the best teams against each other, but initially it did not include the Rose Bowl. The Bowl and their contracted conferences, (Big 10 and Pac 10) didn’t want change, and was from the onset a problem to the BCS. The idea was to try to pit the #1 and #2 teams in a true Championship, but this was a problem if any team from the Pac 10 or Big 10 finished at the top.
But this was soon fixed and it then included the four major bowls, the Rose Bowl, Orange Bowl, Fiesta Bowl and Sugar Bowl. These bowls now seemed to be in unison that the NCAA could not present the fans of college football with a true National Championship. But the problem was that in doing that, the lesser conferences were left out of the picture.
This was ignored for a few years until teams like Fresno State, Boise State, TCU, Hawaii and others began to put pressure on the NCAA. It forced people to wonder, what if a team like that finished undefeated? Shall the NCAA ignore their success while catering to the “fat cats” of the BCS?
So taking another step, the NCAA created a fifth bowl, thus allowing 10 slots for Division I teams. The purpose for this fifth bowl was to allow room for a non-BCS team to compete in the major bowls instead of leaving them out. Now…having said that, it should be understood that if the NCAA created a fifth bowl FOR the opportunity for a non BCS team to get involved, then it stands to reason that these teams don’t have to “bust” in.
The term “BCS Busters” doesn’t make sense because to “bust” in is to intrude to enter where you were not allowed. To force entry. This is not the situation folks, because the bowl now gives PLACE to such a team that qualifies. If there is a question on this, it is, at this point of the year, WHO will be that team.
“Well why not all the teams that qualify?”
That sounds credible, especially now. If you check the current rankings you will see that currently 7 teams outside the BCS conferences are on the top 25. Of those, we focus more on the top 3, being Utah at #7, Boise State at #10 and Ball State at #14. But if you do the math, you know that with 5 major bowls, there is only room for 10 teams. So how might this play out, and how does this involve the non-BCS schools, or as some call them, “BCS Busters”.
To know how this works, you also must remember that there are certain rules that must be applied first. The first and foremost is that the National Championship game is called the FedEX BCS National Championship Game, which WILL take the #1 and #2 teams. They get the first pick, and if it ended today, we know it would be Alabama and Texas Tech.
But after that, it gets a little different.
You see, many of you assume that the second best bowl will take #3 and #4, in this case being #3 Texas vs. #4 Florida, but that is not quite how it works. There are a lot of sub plots going on that make these selections different, and it does impact the “BCS Busters”.
The order of the bowls this year (which rotate yearly) are: Rose, Orange, Sugar, Fiesta and BCS Championship, in reverse order. The greatest games being last. If the season ended today, the BCS Championship must place Alabama and Texas Tech in this bowl.
After that, certain things apply.
The second biggest game would then be the Fiesta bowl, which has a contractual obligation to the Big 12. This means that normally they would have to take the best Big 12 team, as per their contract with the conference. But this would be different, because this year, Texas Tech, a member of the Big 12, is in the National Championship. That means they are no longer obligated to take a Big 12 team….
But they COULD if they wanted to…and with Texas sitting right there at #3, it is very likely that they would take the Longhorns…but would they take Florida?
You’d think they would…but then there’d be another problem. Just as the Big 12 as a contract with the Fiesta Bowl, the SEC has a contract with the Sugar Bowl. The Sugar bowl has the right to the best SEC team UNLESS they are in the National Championship…and guess what. Alabama is an SEC team. So that then frees up the contractual obligation. On paper, it might seem that the Fiesta Bowl could indeed have the #3 and #4 teams compete.
Now keep in mind that with these 5 bowls, ALL of the power conferences (ACC, Big East, Big 10, Big 12, SEC and Pac-10) MUST be involved. Right now we have two bowls, and four teams, but ironically they both pit the SEC vs. Big 12. So let’s just assume that for a moment and look at the third bowl and see how it plays out and how it involved the BCS Busters.
So the third bowl would then be the Sugar Bowl. As we mentioned, this bowl has an obligation to the SEC, but Alabama is in the National Championship. Normally we’d think that it would then select Florida, but we are not sure if the Fiesta Bowl will select them or not…I assure you, many fans would LOVE to see that matchup. But let’s assume that Florida goes to the Fiesta Bowl. Who then would the Sugar Bowl take?
If you go to the next team on the BCS Rankings, that would be Oklahoma at #5. The Sugar Bowl could have Oklahoma face the next team on the list, that being #6 USC, right?
Wrong.
This creates a problem, maybe two problems. To this point we still have not satisfied the ACC, Big East, Big 10 and Pac 10. Those four teams have to be in the BCS. While the Sugar Bowl could pick Oklahoma, it could not pick USC because the Rose Bowl has contractual obligations to both the Pac-10 AND the Big 10 conferences. And since neither is in the National Championship, they have the rights to both…meaning #6 USC and #8 Penn State.
We’ll get back to that in a sec, but that means the Sugar Bowl must select another team. THIS is where the non-BCS teams come in because Utah is currently ranked #7. This means that it is clearly possible for a non-BCS team to compete in the BCS bowl, that being the Sugar Bowl in New Orleans. Oklahoma vs. Utah…quite possible.
If things go as me mentioned, then the fourth bowl on the list is Orange Bowl, which is contractually obligated to the ACC. This means they must take the best ACC team into their bowl. This is interesting because right now, the best team in the ACC is UNC, way down there at #16. But the Orange Bowl would have to take them, and would also have the option of another team.
Now notice what just happened. IF this plays out like we mentioned, then the BCS bowls would then NOT be guaranteed to the top 10 teams, since UNC is ranked 16. This means that somebody in the top 10 will NOT be going to a major bowl. The Orange Bowl can’t drop UNC because they are obligated to the ACC, so they must now pick one of those top 10 teams. And since the highest ranked team left is #6 USC but we know they must be given to the Rose Bowl. #7 is taken (Utah) and #8 is Penn State, which is likely obligated to the Rose Bowl. This drops us down to #9 Boise State,
But that creates a problem.
Remember folks, the power conferences must all have a representative in the BCS. The ACC has UNC in the Orange Bowl, the SEC has a rep in the BCS Championship and likely the Fiesta Bowl. The Big 10 and Pac-10 will meet in the Rose Bowl. The Big 12 will be in the National Championship and a Fiesta Bowl…that leaves out one conference…
The Big East.
They HAVE to be involved, so they there may be no choice. And according to the BCS rankings, Pittsburgh is ranked #21...but likely the candidate to play UNC in the Orange Bowl…leaving Boise State out of the picture.
And actually they would not be the only team snubbed. The #10 team is currently Georgia, and would be left out of a major bowl. But you also add undefeated Ball State. We know that #17 and #18 are BYU and TCU but with Utah being in, nobody is going to argue. This still makes it difficult for more than one non-BCS team to enter the bowl series, but it does acknowledge that at LEAST one can get in.
So….BCS Busters? Not really. This isn’t about allowing 2 or more non-BCS teams in the major bowls, this is about giving the BEST non-BCS team a chance to play against the best teams in the nation. I am not saying it is a perfect system, but hey, it certainly is better than it was a few years ago, when these same teams had NO chance.
You gotta start somewhere.
I wanted to make a quick blog about this issue since I hear it so much on television. For the novice to college football, I will back up just a bit to explain what I am talking about:
In Division I-A (now called FBS, or FCW or ECW or WWE or CBS or something) there are several conferences, and currently 4 Independent schools. The “power” conferences are the big six, which consistently have the best teams in the nation. Those conferences are, not in any order, ACC, Big East, Big 10, Big 12, Pac 10 and SEC. From these schools come your national champions (in most cases).
But these are not the only conferences in Division IA, there are a few others. I mentioned there are 4 Independent schools, those being Navy, Army, Western Kentucky and Notre Dame (of which many read my blog on “The Fate of ND”)
But as mentioned, there are other conferences. These conferences include Conference USA, Mid-American Conference, The Mountain West Conference, Sun Belt Conference and the Western Athletic Conference. These conferences are known as the “lesser” power conferences, but I do not say that in any ill will to them.
When the NCAA began putting together the BCS, or Bowl Championship Series, it was designed originally to pit the best teams against each other, but initially it did not include the Rose Bowl. The Bowl and their contracted conferences, (Big 10 and Pac 10) didn’t want change, and was from the onset a problem to the BCS. The idea was to try to pit the #1 and #2 teams in a true Championship, but this was a problem if any team from the Pac 10 or Big 10 finished at the top.
But this was soon fixed and it then included the four major bowls, the Rose Bowl, Orange Bowl, Fiesta Bowl and Sugar Bowl. These bowls now seemed to be in unison that the NCAA could not present the fans of college football with a true National Championship. But the problem was that in doing that, the lesser conferences were left out of the picture.
This was ignored for a few years until teams like Fresno State, Boise State, TCU, Hawaii and others began to put pressure on the NCAA. It forced people to wonder, what if a team like that finished undefeated? Shall the NCAA ignore their success while catering to the “fat cats” of the BCS?
So taking another step, the NCAA created a fifth bowl, thus allowing 10 slots for Division I teams. The purpose for this fifth bowl was to allow room for a non-BCS team to compete in the major bowls instead of leaving them out. Now…having said that, it should be understood that if the NCAA created a fifth bowl FOR the opportunity for a non BCS team to get involved, then it stands to reason that these teams don’t have to “bust” in.
The term “BCS Busters” doesn’t make sense because to “bust” in is to intrude to enter where you were not allowed. To force entry. This is not the situation folks, because the bowl now gives PLACE to such a team that qualifies. If there is a question on this, it is, at this point of the year, WHO will be that team.
“Well why not all the teams that qualify?”
That sounds credible, especially now. If you check the current rankings you will see that currently 7 teams outside the BCS conferences are on the top 25. Of those, we focus more on the top 3, being Utah at #7, Boise State at #10 and Ball State at #14. But if you do the math, you know that with 5 major bowls, there is only room for 10 teams. So how might this play out, and how does this involve the non-BCS schools, or as some call them, “BCS Busters”.
To know how this works, you also must remember that there are certain rules that must be applied first. The first and foremost is that the National Championship game is called the FedEX BCS National Championship Game, which WILL take the #1 and #2 teams. They get the first pick, and if it ended today, we know it would be Alabama and Texas Tech.
But after that, it gets a little different.
You see, many of you assume that the second best bowl will take #3 and #4, in this case being #3 Texas vs. #4 Florida, but that is not quite how it works. There are a lot of sub plots going on that make these selections different, and it does impact the “BCS Busters”.
The order of the bowls this year (which rotate yearly) are: Rose, Orange, Sugar, Fiesta and BCS Championship, in reverse order. The greatest games being last. If the season ended today, the BCS Championship must place Alabama and Texas Tech in this bowl.
After that, certain things apply.
The second biggest game would then be the Fiesta bowl, which has a contractual obligation to the Big 12. This means that normally they would have to take the best Big 12 team, as per their contract with the conference. But this would be different, because this year, Texas Tech, a member of the Big 12, is in the National Championship. That means they are no longer obligated to take a Big 12 team….
But they COULD if they wanted to…and with Texas sitting right there at #3, it is very likely that they would take the Longhorns…but would they take Florida?
You’d think they would…but then there’d be another problem. Just as the Big 12 as a contract with the Fiesta Bowl, the SEC has a contract with the Sugar Bowl. The Sugar bowl has the right to the best SEC team UNLESS they are in the National Championship…and guess what. Alabama is an SEC team. So that then frees up the contractual obligation. On paper, it might seem that the Fiesta Bowl could indeed have the #3 and #4 teams compete.
Now keep in mind that with these 5 bowls, ALL of the power conferences (ACC, Big East, Big 10, Big 12, SEC and Pac-10) MUST be involved. Right now we have two bowls, and four teams, but ironically they both pit the SEC vs. Big 12. So let’s just assume that for a moment and look at the third bowl and see how it plays out and how it involved the BCS Busters.
So the third bowl would then be the Sugar Bowl. As we mentioned, this bowl has an obligation to the SEC, but Alabama is in the National Championship. Normally we’d think that it would then select Florida, but we are not sure if the Fiesta Bowl will select them or not…I assure you, many fans would LOVE to see that matchup. But let’s assume that Florida goes to the Fiesta Bowl. Who then would the Sugar Bowl take?
If you go to the next team on the BCS Rankings, that would be Oklahoma at #5. The Sugar Bowl could have Oklahoma face the next team on the list, that being #6 USC, right?
Wrong.
This creates a problem, maybe two problems. To this point we still have not satisfied the ACC, Big East, Big 10 and Pac 10. Those four teams have to be in the BCS. While the Sugar Bowl could pick Oklahoma, it could not pick USC because the Rose Bowl has contractual obligations to both the Pac-10 AND the Big 10 conferences. And since neither is in the National Championship, they have the rights to both…meaning #6 USC and #8 Penn State.
We’ll get back to that in a sec, but that means the Sugar Bowl must select another team. THIS is where the non-BCS teams come in because Utah is currently ranked #7. This means that it is clearly possible for a non-BCS team to compete in the BCS bowl, that being the Sugar Bowl in New Orleans. Oklahoma vs. Utah…quite possible.
If things go as me mentioned, then the fourth bowl on the list is Orange Bowl, which is contractually obligated to the ACC. This means they must take the best ACC team into their bowl. This is interesting because right now, the best team in the ACC is UNC, way down there at #16. But the Orange Bowl would have to take them, and would also have the option of another team.
Now notice what just happened. IF this plays out like we mentioned, then the BCS bowls would then NOT be guaranteed to the top 10 teams, since UNC is ranked 16. This means that somebody in the top 10 will NOT be going to a major bowl. The Orange Bowl can’t drop UNC because they are obligated to the ACC, so they must now pick one of those top 10 teams. And since the highest ranked team left is #6 USC but we know they must be given to the Rose Bowl. #7 is taken (Utah) and #8 is Penn State, which is likely obligated to the Rose Bowl. This drops us down to #9 Boise State,
But that creates a problem.
Remember folks, the power conferences must all have a representative in the BCS. The ACC has UNC in the Orange Bowl, the SEC has a rep in the BCS Championship and likely the Fiesta Bowl. The Big 10 and Pac-10 will meet in the Rose Bowl. The Big 12 will be in the National Championship and a Fiesta Bowl…that leaves out one conference…
The Big East.
They HAVE to be involved, so they there may be no choice. And according to the BCS rankings, Pittsburgh is ranked #21...but likely the candidate to play UNC in the Orange Bowl…leaving Boise State out of the picture.
And actually they would not be the only team snubbed. The #10 team is currently Georgia, and would be left out of a major bowl. But you also add undefeated Ball State. We know that #17 and #18 are BYU and TCU but with Utah being in, nobody is going to argue. This still makes it difficult for more than one non-BCS team to enter the bowl series, but it does acknowledge that at LEAST one can get in.
So….BCS Busters? Not really. This isn’t about allowing 2 or more non-BCS teams in the major bowls, this is about giving the BEST non-BCS team a chance to play against the best teams in the nation. I am not saying it is a perfect system, but hey, it certainly is better than it was a few years ago, when these same teams had NO chance.
You gotta start somewhere.
BCS Playoffs, scenario #3
BCS Playoffs: Scenario #3
After looking into the portal of the alternate universe and seeing how the NCAA handled the BCS Playoffs in scenario #2, I wanted to check another portal to see if there was another situation. I found one, and wanted to explain that to you.
Remember, this is a scenario of the “what ifs” in college football. In this particular portal, I see that the NCAA has adopted the playoffs as so many people cried for, but I am not sure about where the games are played, which bowls sponsor them and those kinda details, I can only see who is playing.
In the second scenario, the NCAA went with six teams, giving the top two teams a bye while the others fought it out. The higher seed played the #2 team and the lower seeded team remaining played the #1 team. In that scenario, we saw Florida vs. Texas, but this portal is slightly different.
This universe believes that not six, but EIGHT teams should be in the BCS Playoffs. The idea here was that often times the non-BCS teams don’t get to make it in the top 5, which will likely keep them out of the playoffs. To increase the number to eight gives them a fair shot to compete should they make it that far. It would virtually mean an undefeated season, but it is quite possible.
The BCS Playoffs looks like this: the #1 team plays #8, the #2 team plays the #7, while the #3 team plays the #6 and finally the #4 team plays the #5. The highest seeded team remaining plays the lowest seeded team, and the two remaining teams play one another. The final two play in the BCS National Championship.
With those being the qualifiers, this is what I see in this alternate universe….
#1 Alabama draws #8 Penn State in a classic duel and the attempt of the Big 10 to earn some respect for their conference.
#2 Texas Tech takes on #7 Utah in the great matchup to see if indeed this non-BCS team can hang with the likes of the high scoring Big 12.
#3 Texas faces #6 USC as both 1 loss teams try to take a shot for the National Title.
#4 Florida plays #5 Oklahoma as both teams shake off early losses to try to claim the grand title.
From what I think I see in this universe, Texas Tech wins their game, as do Texas, and I think I see Florida defeating Oklahoma in a classic game. The Alabama vs. Penn State game is very cloudy, I can’t really make it out. It’s possible that there MIGHT have been an upset.
If so, then Penn State, as the lowest seeded team, would draw Texas Tech, and Florida and Texas face off. I can’t swear by that Alabama/Penn State game, but I am hearing a lot of talk about “upset” so I will just assume Penn State won.
But if so, I also see that it would be their only win, as Texas Tech defeats them and advances to the National Championship. The Florida vs. Texas game is another classic, as Florida seems to continually show us their greatness, and I just can’t see clearly enough to tell what hue of orange comes out of that game.
So Texas Tech faces the winner of Florida and Texas in what would promise to be a great game. But there is still controversy.
Boise State, ranked #9 and undefeated, is disappointed in how the NCAA has ignored them, when 3 teams out of the same conference made up almost HALF the playoffs. Even the ACC cries foul even though their best team, UNC is ranked #16 by BCS standards.
It would appear that the playoffs didn’t fully solve the matter of who was the BEST team, when undefeated teams are still left out, and the power conferences don’t all have a representative in the games. The Big East does not have a lot to argue, but they are considered a BCS conference.
It would appear that the issue of playoffs is still not resolved in this universe either…
After looking into the portal of the alternate universe and seeing how the NCAA handled the BCS Playoffs in scenario #2, I wanted to check another portal to see if there was another situation. I found one, and wanted to explain that to you.
Remember, this is a scenario of the “what ifs” in college football. In this particular portal, I see that the NCAA has adopted the playoffs as so many people cried for, but I am not sure about where the games are played, which bowls sponsor them and those kinda details, I can only see who is playing.
In the second scenario, the NCAA went with six teams, giving the top two teams a bye while the others fought it out. The higher seed played the #2 team and the lower seeded team remaining played the #1 team. In that scenario, we saw Florida vs. Texas, but this portal is slightly different.
This universe believes that not six, but EIGHT teams should be in the BCS Playoffs. The idea here was that often times the non-BCS teams don’t get to make it in the top 5, which will likely keep them out of the playoffs. To increase the number to eight gives them a fair shot to compete should they make it that far. It would virtually mean an undefeated season, but it is quite possible.
The BCS Playoffs looks like this: the #1 team plays #8, the #2 team plays the #7, while the #3 team plays the #6 and finally the #4 team plays the #5. The highest seeded team remaining plays the lowest seeded team, and the two remaining teams play one another. The final two play in the BCS National Championship.
With those being the qualifiers, this is what I see in this alternate universe….
#1 Alabama draws #8 Penn State in a classic duel and the attempt of the Big 10 to earn some respect for their conference.
#2 Texas Tech takes on #7 Utah in the great matchup to see if indeed this non-BCS team can hang with the likes of the high scoring Big 12.
#3 Texas faces #6 USC as both 1 loss teams try to take a shot for the National Title.
#4 Florida plays #5 Oklahoma as both teams shake off early losses to try to claim the grand title.
From what I think I see in this universe, Texas Tech wins their game, as do Texas, and I think I see Florida defeating Oklahoma in a classic game. The Alabama vs. Penn State game is very cloudy, I can’t really make it out. It’s possible that there MIGHT have been an upset.
If so, then Penn State, as the lowest seeded team, would draw Texas Tech, and Florida and Texas face off. I can’t swear by that Alabama/Penn State game, but I am hearing a lot of talk about “upset” so I will just assume Penn State won.
But if so, I also see that it would be their only win, as Texas Tech defeats them and advances to the National Championship. The Florida vs. Texas game is another classic, as Florida seems to continually show us their greatness, and I just can’t see clearly enough to tell what hue of orange comes out of that game.
So Texas Tech faces the winner of Florida and Texas in what would promise to be a great game. But there is still controversy.
Boise State, ranked #9 and undefeated, is disappointed in how the NCAA has ignored them, when 3 teams out of the same conference made up almost HALF the playoffs. Even the ACC cries foul even though their best team, UNC is ranked #16 by BCS standards.
It would appear that the playoffs didn’t fully solve the matter of who was the BEST team, when undefeated teams are still left out, and the power conferences don’t all have a representative in the games. The Big East does not have a lot to argue, but they are considered a BCS conference.
It would appear that the issue of playoffs is still not resolved in this universe either…
BCS Playoffs, scenario #2
BCS Playoffs: Scenario #2
If you read my blog on scenario #1, then you may understand what I am talking about. If you have not, this is just an idea of how the playoffs COULD work if there was such a thing in the FBS.
Personally for me, it does not matter, a playoff would not solve anything because of the example I am going to give in a sec, and what I mentioned in scenario #1. But let’s suppose that we could look into the portal of an identical universe, one exactly like ours except they did have the BCS Playoffs. What info could that world provide for us?
As mentioned in the first scenario, there was much talk about how many teams would compete. Immediately the idea of 32 and 16 teams were ruled out because it would be foolish to think that any team outside the top 10 has any REAL shot to compete for a National Title…otherwise they would have already BEEN in the top 10.
The idea of an 8 team playoff was strongly debated, but defeated because in the history of the NCAA, no team outside the top 5 were worthy enough to be considered as THE elite of the NCAA. But the argument of the non-BCS teams brought in the idea that it ought to be fair to try to allow at least one in, if they can manage to prove that they are amongst the best. Still, eight teams was too much, meaning the National Champion would have to play 3 extra games.
So the idea was a split, a compromise, for six teams. The BCS playoffs would have six teams, and the #1 and #2 teams would get a bye, saving them from one game. Of the remaining teams, the #3 team would play the #6 team, and the #4 team would play the #5 team. It was also decided that the lowest seed advancing would play the number one team, and the higher seeded team would play the #2.
And so we peek into this universe to see how this plays out:
Because Alabama is the number one team in the nation, and Texas Tech the number two team, both teams sit back and see whom they will play. As the #3 seed, Texas would play #6 USC and #4 Florida would play #5 Oklahoma. As far as I could see it, it appears that the Big 12 would win AND lose, but I am not quite sure which one falls and which one moves on. It looks like Texas defeats USC and Florida knocks off Oklahoma.
If that is true, then Alabama would then play Florida in order to advance to the National Championship, and Texas Tech would then play Texas. There is a lot of confusion here, because lots of fans are crying foul in that the National Championship is made up of only two conferences, and they are playing familiar foes. The lack of a new matchup brings a lot of criticism to the NCAA. Nevertheless, I see Florida vs. Texas in the National Championship, and although I can’t see the winner, I see that it is a very good game.
But the season still has great controversy, as the Big 10 cries foul for being left out of the BCS playoffs. In addition, Utah and Boise State are very disappointed in not being invited to the playoffs, even with perfect records.
Sports writers and media protest the way the NCAA has performed this playoffs, and some want more changes to allow more teams, while some want to make sure that all major conferences get a shot in the playoffs. More turmoil seems to come about even as the NCAA tries to fix this situation….
We’ll have to look at another portal to see how another world tries to solve this BCS problem…although I don’t really see a problem in what we have now. But it’s interesting to see what could play out…until next time…
If you read my blog on scenario #1, then you may understand what I am talking about. If you have not, this is just an idea of how the playoffs COULD work if there was such a thing in the FBS.
Personally for me, it does not matter, a playoff would not solve anything because of the example I am going to give in a sec, and what I mentioned in scenario #1. But let’s suppose that we could look into the portal of an identical universe, one exactly like ours except they did have the BCS Playoffs. What info could that world provide for us?
As mentioned in the first scenario, there was much talk about how many teams would compete. Immediately the idea of 32 and 16 teams were ruled out because it would be foolish to think that any team outside the top 10 has any REAL shot to compete for a National Title…otherwise they would have already BEEN in the top 10.
The idea of an 8 team playoff was strongly debated, but defeated because in the history of the NCAA, no team outside the top 5 were worthy enough to be considered as THE elite of the NCAA. But the argument of the non-BCS teams brought in the idea that it ought to be fair to try to allow at least one in, if they can manage to prove that they are amongst the best. Still, eight teams was too much, meaning the National Champion would have to play 3 extra games.
So the idea was a split, a compromise, for six teams. The BCS playoffs would have six teams, and the #1 and #2 teams would get a bye, saving them from one game. Of the remaining teams, the #3 team would play the #6 team, and the #4 team would play the #5 team. It was also decided that the lowest seed advancing would play the number one team, and the higher seeded team would play the #2.
And so we peek into this universe to see how this plays out:
Because Alabama is the number one team in the nation, and Texas Tech the number two team, both teams sit back and see whom they will play. As the #3 seed, Texas would play #6 USC and #4 Florida would play #5 Oklahoma. As far as I could see it, it appears that the Big 12 would win AND lose, but I am not quite sure which one falls and which one moves on. It looks like Texas defeats USC and Florida knocks off Oklahoma.
If that is true, then Alabama would then play Florida in order to advance to the National Championship, and Texas Tech would then play Texas. There is a lot of confusion here, because lots of fans are crying foul in that the National Championship is made up of only two conferences, and they are playing familiar foes. The lack of a new matchup brings a lot of criticism to the NCAA. Nevertheless, I see Florida vs. Texas in the National Championship, and although I can’t see the winner, I see that it is a very good game.
But the season still has great controversy, as the Big 10 cries foul for being left out of the BCS playoffs. In addition, Utah and Boise State are very disappointed in not being invited to the playoffs, even with perfect records.
Sports writers and media protest the way the NCAA has performed this playoffs, and some want more changes to allow more teams, while some want to make sure that all major conferences get a shot in the playoffs. More turmoil seems to come about even as the NCAA tries to fix this situation….
We’ll have to look at another portal to see how another world tries to solve this BCS problem…although I don’t really see a problem in what we have now. But it’s interesting to see what could play out…until next time…
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
BCS Bowls and BCS Busters
BCS Busters?
I wanted to make a quick blog about this issue since I hear it so much on television. For the novice to college football, I will back up just a bit to explain what I am talking about:
In Division I-A (now called FBS, or FCW or ECW or WWE or CBS or something) there are several conferences, and currently 4 Independent schools. The “power” conferences are the big six, which consistently have the best teams in the nation. Those conferences are, not in any order, ACC, Big East, Big 10, Big 12, Pac 10 and SEC. From these schools come your national champions (in most cases).
But these are not the only conferences in Division IA, there are a few others. I mentioned there are 4 Independent schools, those being Navy, Army, Western Kentucky and Notre Dame (of which many read my blog on “The Fate of ND”)
But as mentioned, there are other conferences. These conferences include Conference USA, Mid-American Conference, The Mountain West Conference, Sun Belt Conference and the Western Athletic Conference. These conferences are known as the “lesser” power conferences, but I do not say that in any ill will to them.
When the NCAA began putting together the BCS, or Bowl Championship Series, it was designed originally to pit the best teams against each other, but initially it did not include the Rose Bowl. The Bowl and their contracted conferences, (Big 10 and Pac 10) didn’t want change, and was from the onset a problem to the BCS. The idea was to try to pit the #1 and #2 teams in a true Championship, but this was a problem if any team from the Pac 10 or Big 10 finished at the top.
But this was soon fixed and it then included the four major bowls, the Rose Bowl, Orange Bowl, Fiesta Bowl and Sugar Bowl. These bowls now seemed to be in unison that the NCAA could not present the fans of college football with a true National Championship. But the problem was that in doing that, the lesser conferences were left out of the picture.
This was ignored for a few years until teams like Fresno State, Boise State, TCU, Hawaii and others began to put pressure on the NCAA. It forced people to wonder, what if a team like that finished undefeated? Shall the NCAA ignore their success while catering to the “fat cats” of the BCS?
So taking another step, the NCAA created a fifth bowl, thus allowing 10 slots for Division I teams. The purpose for this fifth bowl was to allow room for a non-BCS team to compete in the major bowls instead of leaving them out. Now…having said that, it should be understood that if the NCAA created a fifth bowl FOR the opportunity for a non BCS team to get involved, then it stands to reason that these teams don’t have to “bust” in.
The term “BCS Busters” doesn’t make sense because to “bust” in is to intrude to enter where you were not allowed. To force entry. This is not the situation folks, because the bowl now gives PLACE to such a team that qualifies. If there is a question on this, it is, at this point of the year, WHO will be that team.
“Well why not all the teams that qualify?”
That sounds credible, especially now. If you check the current rankings you will see that currently 7 teams outside the BCS conferences are on the top 25. Of those, we focus more on the top 3, being Utah at #7, Boise State at #10 and Ball State at #14. But if you do the math, you know that with 5 major bowls, there is only room for 10 teams. So how might this play out, and how does this involve the non-BCS schools, or as some call them, “BCS Busters”.
To know how this works, you also must remember that there are certain rules that must be applied first. The first and foremost is that the National Championship game is called the FedEX BCS National Championship Game, which WILL take the #1 and #2 teams. They get the first pick, and if it ended today, we know it would be Alabama and Texas Tech.
But after that, it gets a little different.
You see, many of you assume that the second best bowl will take #3 and #4, in this case being #3 Texas vs. #4 Florida, but that is not quite how it works. There are a lot of sub plots going on that make these selections different, and it does impact the “BCS Busters”.
The order of the bowls this year (which rotate yearly) are: Rose, Orange, Sugar, Fiesta and BCS Championship, in reverse order. The greatest games being last. If the season ended today, the BCS Championship must place Alabama and Texas Tech in this bowl.
After that, certain things apply.
The second biggest game would then be the Fiesta bowl, which has a contractual obligation to the Big 12. This means that normally they would have to take the best Big 12 team, as per their contract with the conference. But this would be different, because this year, Texas Tech, a member of the Big 12, is in the National Championship. That means they are no longer obligated to take a Big 12 team….
But they COULD if they wanted to…and with Texas sitting right there at #3, it is very likely that they would take the Longhorns…but would they take Florida?
You’d think they would…but then there’d be another problem. Just as the Big 12 as a contract with the Fiesta Bowl, the SEC has a contract with the Sugar Bowl. The Sugar bowl has the right to the best SEC team UNLESS they are in the National Championship…and guess what. Alabama is an SEC team. So that then frees up the contractual obligation. On paper, it might seem that the Fiesta Bowl could indeed have the #3 and #4 teams compete.
Now keep in mind that with these 5 bowls, ALL of the power conferences (ACC, Big East, Big 10, Big 12, SEC and Pac-10) MUST be involved. Right now we have two bowls, and four teams, but ironically they both pit the SEC vs. Big 12. So let’s just assume that for a moment and look at the third bowl and see how it plays out and how it involved the BCS Busters.
So the third bowl would then be the Sugar Bowl. As we mentioned, this bowl has an obligation to the SEC, but Alabama is in the National Championship. Normally we’d think that it would then select Florida, but we are not sure if the Fiesta Bowl will select them or not…I assure you, many fans would LOVE to see that matchup. But let’s assume that Florida goes to the Fiesta Bowl. Who then would the Sugar Bowl take?
If you go to the next team on the BCS Rankings, that would be Oklahoma at #5. The Sugar Bowl could have Oklahoma face the next team on the list, that being #6 USC, right?
Wrong.
This creates a problem, maybe two problems. To this point we still have not satisfied the ACC, Big East, Big 10 and Pac 10. Those four teams have to be in the BCS. While the Sugar Bowl could pick Oklahoma, it could not pick USC because the Rose Bowl has contractual obligations to both the Pac-10 AND the Big 10 conferences. And since neither is in the National Championship, they have the rights to both…meaning #6 USC and #8 Penn State.
We’ll get back to that in a sec, but that means the Sugar Bowl must select another team. THIS is where the non-BCS teams come in because Utah is currently ranked #7. This means that it is clearly possible for a non-BCS team to compete in the BCS bowl, that being the Sugar Bowl in New Orleans. Oklahoma vs. Utah…quite possible.
If things go as me mentioned, then the fourth bowl on the list is Orange Bowl, which is contractually obligated to the ACC. This means they must take the best ACC team into their bowl. This is interesting because right now, the best team in the ACC is UNC, way down there at #16. But the Orange Bowl would have to take them, and would also have the option of another team.
Now notice what just happened. IF this plays out like we mentioned, then the BCS bowls would then NOT be guaranteed to the top 10 teams, since UNC is ranked 16. This means that somebody in the top 10 will NOT be going to a major bowl. The Orange Bowl can’t drop UNC because they are obligated to the ACC, so they must now pick one of those top 10 teams. And since the highest ranked team left is #6 USC but we know they must be given to the Rose Bowl. #7 is taken (Utah) and #8 is Penn State, which is likely obligated to the Rose Bowl. This drops us down to #9 Boise State,
But that creates a problem.
Remember folks, the power conferences must all have a representative in the BCS. The ACC has UNC in the Orange Bowl, the SEC has a rep in the BCS Championship and likely the Fiesta Bowl. The Big 10 and Pac-10 will meet in the Rose Bowl. The Big 12 will be in the National Championship and a Fiesta Bowl…that leaves out one conference…
The Big East.
They HAVE to be involved, so they there may be no choice. And according to the BCS rankings, Pittsburgh is ranked #21...but likely the candidate to play UNC in the Orange Bowl…leaving Boise State out of the picture.
And actually they would not be the only team snubbed. The #10 team is currently Georgia, and would be left out of a major bowl. But you also add undefeated Ball State. We know that #17 and #18 are BYU and TCU but with Utah being in, nobody is going to argue. This still makes it difficult for more than one non-BCS team to enter the bowl series, but it does acknowledge that at LEAST one can get in.
So….BCS Busters? Not really. This isn’t about allowing 2 or more non-BCS teams in the major bowls, this is about giving the BEST non-BCS team a chance to play against the best teams in the nation. I am not saying it is a perfect system, but hey, it certainly is better than it was a few years ago, when these same teams had NO chance.
You gotta start somewhere.
I wanted to make a quick blog about this issue since I hear it so much on television. For the novice to college football, I will back up just a bit to explain what I am talking about:
In Division I-A (now called FBS, or FCW or ECW or WWE or CBS or something) there are several conferences, and currently 4 Independent schools. The “power” conferences are the big six, which consistently have the best teams in the nation. Those conferences are, not in any order, ACC, Big East, Big 10, Big 12, Pac 10 and SEC. From these schools come your national champions (in most cases).
But these are not the only conferences in Division IA, there are a few others. I mentioned there are 4 Independent schools, those being Navy, Army, Western Kentucky and Notre Dame (of which many read my blog on “The Fate of ND”)
But as mentioned, there are other conferences. These conferences include Conference USA, Mid-American Conference, The Mountain West Conference, Sun Belt Conference and the Western Athletic Conference. These conferences are known as the “lesser” power conferences, but I do not say that in any ill will to them.
When the NCAA began putting together the BCS, or Bowl Championship Series, it was designed originally to pit the best teams against each other, but initially it did not include the Rose Bowl. The Bowl and their contracted conferences, (Big 10 and Pac 10) didn’t want change, and was from the onset a problem to the BCS. The idea was to try to pit the #1 and #2 teams in a true Championship, but this was a problem if any team from the Pac 10 or Big 10 finished at the top.
But this was soon fixed and it then included the four major bowls, the Rose Bowl, Orange Bowl, Fiesta Bowl and Sugar Bowl. These bowls now seemed to be in unison that the NCAA could not present the fans of college football with a true National Championship. But the problem was that in doing that, the lesser conferences were left out of the picture.
This was ignored for a few years until teams like Fresno State, Boise State, TCU, Hawaii and others began to put pressure on the NCAA. It forced people to wonder, what if a team like that finished undefeated? Shall the NCAA ignore their success while catering to the “fat cats” of the BCS?
So taking another step, the NCAA created a fifth bowl, thus allowing 10 slots for Division I teams. The purpose for this fifth bowl was to allow room for a non-BCS team to compete in the major bowls instead of leaving them out. Now…having said that, it should be understood that if the NCAA created a fifth bowl FOR the opportunity for a non BCS team to get involved, then it stands to reason that these teams don’t have to “bust” in.
The term “BCS Busters” doesn’t make sense because to “bust” in is to intrude to enter where you were not allowed. To force entry. This is not the situation folks, because the bowl now gives PLACE to such a team that qualifies. If there is a question on this, it is, at this point of the year, WHO will be that team.
“Well why not all the teams that qualify?”
That sounds credible, especially now. If you check the current rankings you will see that currently 7 teams outside the BCS conferences are on the top 25. Of those, we focus more on the top 3, being Utah at #7, Boise State at #10 and Ball State at #14. But if you do the math, you know that with 5 major bowls, there is only room for 10 teams. So how might this play out, and how does this involve the non-BCS schools, or as some call them, “BCS Busters”.
To know how this works, you also must remember that there are certain rules that must be applied first. The first and foremost is that the National Championship game is called the FedEX BCS National Championship Game, which WILL take the #1 and #2 teams. They get the first pick, and if it ended today, we know it would be Alabama and Texas Tech.
But after that, it gets a little different.
You see, many of you assume that the second best bowl will take #3 and #4, in this case being #3 Texas vs. #4 Florida, but that is not quite how it works. There are a lot of sub plots going on that make these selections different, and it does impact the “BCS Busters”.
The order of the bowls this year (which rotate yearly) are: Rose, Orange, Sugar, Fiesta and BCS Championship, in reverse order. The greatest games being last. If the season ended today, the BCS Championship must place Alabama and Texas Tech in this bowl.
After that, certain things apply.
The second biggest game would then be the Fiesta bowl, which has a contractual obligation to the Big 12. This means that normally they would have to take the best Big 12 team, as per their contract with the conference. But this would be different, because this year, Texas Tech, a member of the Big 12, is in the National Championship. That means they are no longer obligated to take a Big 12 team….
But they COULD if they wanted to…and with Texas sitting right there at #3, it is very likely that they would take the Longhorns…but would they take Florida?
You’d think they would…but then there’d be another problem. Just as the Big 12 as a contract with the Fiesta Bowl, the SEC has a contract with the Sugar Bowl. The Sugar bowl has the right to the best SEC team UNLESS they are in the National Championship…and guess what. Alabama is an SEC team. So that then frees up the contractual obligation. On paper, it might seem that the Fiesta Bowl could indeed have the #3 and #4 teams compete.
Now keep in mind that with these 5 bowls, ALL of the power conferences (ACC, Big East, Big 10, Big 12, SEC and Pac-10) MUST be involved. Right now we have two bowls, and four teams, but ironically they both pit the SEC vs. Big 12. So let’s just assume that for a moment and look at the third bowl and see how it plays out and how it involved the BCS Busters.
So the third bowl would then be the Sugar Bowl. As we mentioned, this bowl has an obligation to the SEC, but Alabama is in the National Championship. Normally we’d think that it would then select Florida, but we are not sure if the Fiesta Bowl will select them or not…I assure you, many fans would LOVE to see that matchup. But let’s assume that Florida goes to the Fiesta Bowl. Who then would the Sugar Bowl take?
If you go to the next team on the BCS Rankings, that would be Oklahoma at #5. The Sugar Bowl could have Oklahoma face the next team on the list, that being #6 USC, right?
Wrong.
This creates a problem, maybe two problems. To this point we still have not satisfied the ACC, Big East, Big 10 and Pac 10. Those four teams have to be in the BCS. While the Sugar Bowl could pick Oklahoma, it could not pick USC because the Rose Bowl has contractual obligations to both the Pac-10 AND the Big 10 conferences. And since neither is in the National Championship, they have the rights to both…meaning #6 USC and #8 Penn State.
We’ll get back to that in a sec, but that means the Sugar Bowl must select another team. THIS is where the non-BCS teams come in because Utah is currently ranked #7. This means that it is clearly possible for a non-BCS team to compete in the BCS bowl, that being the Sugar Bowl in New Orleans. Oklahoma vs. Utah…quite possible.
If things go as me mentioned, then the fourth bowl on the list is Orange Bowl, which is contractually obligated to the ACC. This means they must take the best ACC team into their bowl. This is interesting because right now, the best team in the ACC is UNC, way down there at #16. But the Orange Bowl would have to take them, and would also have the option of another team.
Now notice what just happened. IF this plays out like we mentioned, then the BCS bowls would then NOT be guaranteed to the top 10 teams, since UNC is ranked 16. This means that somebody in the top 10 will NOT be going to a major bowl. The Orange Bowl can’t drop UNC because they are obligated to the ACC, so they must now pick one of those top 10 teams. And since the highest ranked team left is #6 USC but we know they must be given to the Rose Bowl. #7 is taken (Utah) and #8 is Penn State, which is likely obligated to the Rose Bowl. This drops us down to #9 Boise State,
But that creates a problem.
Remember folks, the power conferences must all have a representative in the BCS. The ACC has UNC in the Orange Bowl, the SEC has a rep in the BCS Championship and likely the Fiesta Bowl. The Big 10 and Pac-10 will meet in the Rose Bowl. The Big 12 will be in the National Championship and a Fiesta Bowl…that leaves out one conference…
The Big East.
They HAVE to be involved, so they there may be no choice. And according to the BCS rankings, Pittsburgh is ranked #21...but likely the candidate to play UNC in the Orange Bowl…leaving Boise State out of the picture.
And actually they would not be the only team snubbed. The #10 team is currently Georgia, and would be left out of a major bowl. But you also add undefeated Ball State. We know that #17 and #18 are BYU and TCU but with Utah being in, nobody is going to argue. This still makes it difficult for more than one non-BCS team to enter the bowl series, but it does acknowledge that at LEAST one can get in.
So….BCS Busters? Not really. This isn’t about allowing 2 or more non-BCS teams in the major bowls, this is about giving the BEST non-BCS team a chance to play against the best teams in the nation. I am not saying it is a perfect system, but hey, it certainly is better than it was a few years ago, when these same teams had NO chance.
You gotta start somewhere.
Saturday, October 25, 2008
Why playoffs in college football?
Why Playoffs in Football?
I have less than an hour before kickoff, so I need to jump right in this so I can have time to watch the games today. Before I do, those who have read my first part of the wrestling blog can catch the rest on blogspot.com, which is where I will be blogging out ideas on how to get wrestling fans.
So, let’s look at this, why should there be Division I playoffs in football?
Lots of media whine and cry about this all the time, and they get upset when the teams they think should be in the championship mix are left out. Ironically, this is interesting because Penn State is currently undefeated, but has been left out of the championship picture before, even with an undefeated record.
So let’s chew on this for a second. Why do we want playoffs?
I wonder a lot about this, and I personally think it is a personal belief of the media. It just seems to me that the media wants to force the NCAA to have playoffs for Division I, but the hypocrisy here is that when you report news and sports, you are to do just that… report it, not CREATE it.
We all have our opinions when it comes to sports, I am no different, but we cross the line when we start thinking that the sports world ought to do what we want them to do. This is one of the reasons there is such a big debate for playoffs in college football, especially in Division I…
(and YEAH, I know it’s the FBS or CBS or CSI or something, but hey, it’s my blog!)
So why have playoffs? What is the real reason behind it? Well, as you know, the playoffs is a tournament styled form of competition which gives more than 2 teams a chance to compete for a championship.
Sounds simple but follow me….
The key words being “more than two”. If it’s just two, then it’s called a championship, a competition between the two BEST teams. But to imply that there should be a playoff means that there are more than 2 teams that could make a case as being the best.
Now, factor out professional sports because we’re talking about college kids here, remembering that those guys in the pros get paid for it. So the idea of playoffs in Division I is based on the idea that there should be more than 2 teams competing for the National Championship.
THIS is where the argument really begins. Every year people in the media start creating the hysteria, many times they start after 2 weeks. What if this team and this team and THIS team finish undefeated, what happens then?
In fact, we can use the current BCS ranking as an example. Currently Texas is number one, followed by Alabama and Penn State. All three are undefeated. What if all three finish the season undefeated?
Well certainly the Big 10 will cry out for justice because they felt that the conference was slighted a chance in the National Championship (although they’ll GLADLY take the Rose Bowl and all that MONEY!).
But there’s another argument here, one many don’t really say much about. Many people want to see the playoffs because they want to give the “little guy” a shot at the championship.
The “little guy” being teams out of the power conferences. I bring to your attention Boise State, currently ranked #12 and came off a win last night over San Jose State.
The media wants to see schools like this in the national spotlight, and I don’t blame them. It’s always a “feel-good” story when teams out of the power conferences go undefeated. Several teams have had some success, and several others are in the mix… they call them “BCS Busters”. Teams like ECU, TCU, Utah, BYU and others have made news because of their early or continuing success.
And because of that, the media wants us to root for the “little guy”. So when a team goes undefeated, we immediately want the world to crown them champions, or put them in the National Championship. And when they can’t get that, they try to force them in with the idea of “playoffs”.
But how legit is this?
Now it might sound like I’m talking in favor of the power conferences, as if that rich cat in Oklahoma State just sent me a whopping donation on my blog, but that’s not it. I mean, I graduated from a Southern Conference school (not to be confused with SEC), so I know about the “little guy”. But many times the media, in an attempt to look for a great story, tries to create one.
Still….should there be playoffs in football?
As mentioned earlier, the reasons for playoffs in Division I are theoretically to give the overachieving “little guy” a chance, and to place more than 2 teams in competition for the National Championship. But there are so many other factors, such as money, but the media doesn’t care about that…only the colleges and universities.
But let’s say there is a playoff…who gets invited? Right now the teams out of the power conferences that are ranked are Boise State and Utah…but that’s 12 teams down. You can’t have a post season with that many teams and hope to finish before the end of the year. That’s too many teams! So if the idea is to get the “little guy” in, the idea becomes a crusade just to get teams like Boise State and Utah in. And even though those teams are good, where do you draw the line on who is good, and who are the BEST?
How many teams would be in it, or should there be a “sliding scale”? For example, if Texas and Alabama finish undefeated (just saying) and all the other power conferences lose at least one game (including Penn State) then is there REALLY a need for a playoff if you have the two best teams?
But what if Boise State…
NO! I said the two BEST TEAMS, not the feel good stories of the year! I am not going to argue about Boise State being good, they are very good and have proven it year after year. And we know about that game where they beat Oklahoma. But you cannot tell me that this team, which has only beaten ONE top 25 team in #17 Oregon State is in the same category as any power conference team that goes undefeated.
If Boise State goes undefeated, they would have beaten 2 teams that were ranked throughout the course of the year (Oregon State and Fresno State). That’s fine… but tell me how many ranked teams Texas and Alabama would have beaten, not to mention the conference championship game?
We’re talking a whole different plane of competition. So if a power conference school goes undefeated, they get greater favor than a team not in a power conference school. Now, Utah has a legit argument too, if they go undefeated, and I personally think they might jump OVER Boise State because if they go undefeated, they would have had the tougher schedule.
And all this is fine when we talk about undefeated teams…but it really gets wild when there are NO undefeated teams…what do you do then? What if all the undefeated teams lose, who then is the best teams to compete in the BCS Championship. Well of course we have the rankings to identify that, but it still makes for debate.
I know there is no real answer to the playoffs issue, but I wondered how much easier it would be if some of the conferences took some measures to help themselves. For example, the Pac-10 and Big 10 don’t have conference championships, which means in theory they can have two undefeated teams that don’t have to play one another…just a theory. Why not get the power conferences to at least 12 teams so they can have a championship like the SEC, ACC and Big 12? Would it be so hard for the Pac-10 to absorb Fresno State and San Jose State for example, making them a 12 team conference?
Would it be too hard to get the MWC and WAC together again, so you’d have Boise State, BYU, Utah, Air Force, TCU and others in a much more competitive conference? You’d have enough to have a conference championship, and if anybody comes out of THAT undefeated, then you’d have a real argument for a BCS Champion contender.
I think before you start throwing teams in the playoff mix, you first have to identify the best teams. Until you do, we’re just picking the teams as the rankings show it, and lots of times those rankings can be deceptive…I mean, where is that #9 Clemson team now? Where is that West Virginia team now that was so highly ranked, or that Wisconsin team? Let the teams prove it in their conference, and in the conference championships. Would it be too hard for the Big 10 to add one more team? Now, I can’t help you with the Big East, but you get my point.
Anyway, just something to run my mouth about. I’ve been typing too long and I got 7 minutes to get some pancakes, bacon and get my spot for college football!!!!
I have less than an hour before kickoff, so I need to jump right in this so I can have time to watch the games today. Before I do, those who have read my first part of the wrestling blog can catch the rest on blogspot.com, which is where I will be blogging out ideas on how to get wrestling fans.
So, let’s look at this, why should there be Division I playoffs in football?
Lots of media whine and cry about this all the time, and they get upset when the teams they think should be in the championship mix are left out. Ironically, this is interesting because Penn State is currently undefeated, but has been left out of the championship picture before, even with an undefeated record.
So let’s chew on this for a second. Why do we want playoffs?
I wonder a lot about this, and I personally think it is a personal belief of the media. It just seems to me that the media wants to force the NCAA to have playoffs for Division I, but the hypocrisy here is that when you report news and sports, you are to do just that… report it, not CREATE it.
We all have our opinions when it comes to sports, I am no different, but we cross the line when we start thinking that the sports world ought to do what we want them to do. This is one of the reasons there is such a big debate for playoffs in college football, especially in Division I…
(and YEAH, I know it’s the FBS or CBS or CSI or something, but hey, it’s my blog!)
So why have playoffs? What is the real reason behind it? Well, as you know, the playoffs is a tournament styled form of competition which gives more than 2 teams a chance to compete for a championship.
Sounds simple but follow me….
The key words being “more than two”. If it’s just two, then it’s called a championship, a competition between the two BEST teams. But to imply that there should be a playoff means that there are more than 2 teams that could make a case as being the best.
Now, factor out professional sports because we’re talking about college kids here, remembering that those guys in the pros get paid for it. So the idea of playoffs in Division I is based on the idea that there should be more than 2 teams competing for the National Championship.
THIS is where the argument really begins. Every year people in the media start creating the hysteria, many times they start after 2 weeks. What if this team and this team and THIS team finish undefeated, what happens then?
In fact, we can use the current BCS ranking as an example. Currently Texas is number one, followed by Alabama and Penn State. All three are undefeated. What if all three finish the season undefeated?
Well certainly the Big 10 will cry out for justice because they felt that the conference was slighted a chance in the National Championship (although they’ll GLADLY take the Rose Bowl and all that MONEY!).
But there’s another argument here, one many don’t really say much about. Many people want to see the playoffs because they want to give the “little guy” a shot at the championship.
The “little guy” being teams out of the power conferences. I bring to your attention Boise State, currently ranked #12 and came off a win last night over San Jose State.
The media wants to see schools like this in the national spotlight, and I don’t blame them. It’s always a “feel-good” story when teams out of the power conferences go undefeated. Several teams have had some success, and several others are in the mix… they call them “BCS Busters”. Teams like ECU, TCU, Utah, BYU and others have made news because of their early or continuing success.
And because of that, the media wants us to root for the “little guy”. So when a team goes undefeated, we immediately want the world to crown them champions, or put them in the National Championship. And when they can’t get that, they try to force them in with the idea of “playoffs”.
But how legit is this?
Now it might sound like I’m talking in favor of the power conferences, as if that rich cat in Oklahoma State just sent me a whopping donation on my blog, but that’s not it. I mean, I graduated from a Southern Conference school (not to be confused with SEC), so I know about the “little guy”. But many times the media, in an attempt to look for a great story, tries to create one.
Still….should there be playoffs in football?
As mentioned earlier, the reasons for playoffs in Division I are theoretically to give the overachieving “little guy” a chance, and to place more than 2 teams in competition for the National Championship. But there are so many other factors, such as money, but the media doesn’t care about that…only the colleges and universities.
But let’s say there is a playoff…who gets invited? Right now the teams out of the power conferences that are ranked are Boise State and Utah…but that’s 12 teams down. You can’t have a post season with that many teams and hope to finish before the end of the year. That’s too many teams! So if the idea is to get the “little guy” in, the idea becomes a crusade just to get teams like Boise State and Utah in. And even though those teams are good, where do you draw the line on who is good, and who are the BEST?
How many teams would be in it, or should there be a “sliding scale”? For example, if Texas and Alabama finish undefeated (just saying) and all the other power conferences lose at least one game (including Penn State) then is there REALLY a need for a playoff if you have the two best teams?
But what if Boise State…
NO! I said the two BEST TEAMS, not the feel good stories of the year! I am not going to argue about Boise State being good, they are very good and have proven it year after year. And we know about that game where they beat Oklahoma. But you cannot tell me that this team, which has only beaten ONE top 25 team in #17 Oregon State is in the same category as any power conference team that goes undefeated.
If Boise State goes undefeated, they would have beaten 2 teams that were ranked throughout the course of the year (Oregon State and Fresno State). That’s fine… but tell me how many ranked teams Texas and Alabama would have beaten, not to mention the conference championship game?
We’re talking a whole different plane of competition. So if a power conference school goes undefeated, they get greater favor than a team not in a power conference school. Now, Utah has a legit argument too, if they go undefeated, and I personally think they might jump OVER Boise State because if they go undefeated, they would have had the tougher schedule.
And all this is fine when we talk about undefeated teams…but it really gets wild when there are NO undefeated teams…what do you do then? What if all the undefeated teams lose, who then is the best teams to compete in the BCS Championship. Well of course we have the rankings to identify that, but it still makes for debate.
I know there is no real answer to the playoffs issue, but I wondered how much easier it would be if some of the conferences took some measures to help themselves. For example, the Pac-10 and Big 10 don’t have conference championships, which means in theory they can have two undefeated teams that don’t have to play one another…just a theory. Why not get the power conferences to at least 12 teams so they can have a championship like the SEC, ACC and Big 12? Would it be so hard for the Pac-10 to absorb Fresno State and San Jose State for example, making them a 12 team conference?
Would it be too hard to get the MWC and WAC together again, so you’d have Boise State, BYU, Utah, Air Force, TCU and others in a much more competitive conference? You’d have enough to have a conference championship, and if anybody comes out of THAT undefeated, then you’d have a real argument for a BCS Champion contender.
I think before you start throwing teams in the playoff mix, you first have to identify the best teams. Until you do, we’re just picking the teams as the rankings show it, and lots of times those rankings can be deceptive…I mean, where is that #9 Clemson team now? Where is that West Virginia team now that was so highly ranked, or that Wisconsin team? Let the teams prove it in their conference, and in the conference championships. Would it be too hard for the Big 10 to add one more team? Now, I can’t help you with the Big East, but you get my point.
Anyway, just something to run my mouth about. I’ve been typing too long and I got 7 minutes to get some pancakes, bacon and get my spot for college football!!!!
Monday, October 20, 2008
Alabama VS Penn State
Alabama Football: Can they go Undefeated?
As of Monday, October 20th of 2008, we can all agree to some degree that Alabama is the second best team in the nation. With the current BCS poll out, we see that the clear number 1 at the moment is Texas, and I don’t think anybody is going to argue that.
Second place is Alabama, with Penn State behind. These three teams are all undefeated, and come out of three different conferences. It’s a cinch that any two teams that finish undefeated will play in the Championship Bowl, especially if they come out of the Big 12 and the SEC.
But I wondered if Penn State might be slightly better than Alabama, and thus should have maybe moved up over the Tide. Well, let’s look at this and see if there is any credibility to my argument.
What I am going to do is look at each game and see who should have the upper hand between Alabama and Penn State. We’re going on a wide assumption that Texas will go undefeated, but understand that this is just speculation. Any team can lose on any Saturday.
The fact that Alabama’s BCS rating of .9487 and Penn State’s rating of .8666 seems to imply that there is a pretty valid argument for Alabama is better suited for the second spot, let’s examine this game by game:
First game: Alabama beats #9 ranked Clemson in Clemson 34-10 while Penn State beats Coastal Carolina at home 66-10.
At the beginning of they year, there is no question that of the two games, Alabama looked MUCH better. Penn State beat a team they were supposed to beat, while Alabama pulled off one of the early surprises of the year. This is what rocketed the Tide off to a great start.
Second game: Alabama beats Tulane at home 20-6 while Penn State crushes Oregon State 45-14 at home.
Of these two games, Penn State had the tougher challenge, and proved that a good team can beat another good team with that kind of margin. Alabama handles their business against a lesser foe, but maybe the low score comes of the high of beating Clemson the week before. If I said Alabama was the better of the two schools after the first game, I might still have Alabama better but with Penn State gaining on a slim margin.
Third game: Alabama beats Western Kentucky 41-7 at home while Penn State beats Syracuse AT Syracuse 55-13.
This one is almost even, since neither of the two losing teams makes a heavy impact on the National Championship team. But if you forced me to pick a better team from this, I have to say Penn State ONLY because Syracuse is from a power conference school. This also implies that if Syracuse was to play Western Kentucky, then the Orangemen should win. But that’s theory. So after three games, I might have both Alabama and Penn State about dead even.
Game four: Alabama beats Arkansas AT Arkansas 49-14 while Penn State beats Temple at home 45-3.
I give Alabama the nod here because even though Arkansas is rebuilding, it is still a conference game and Alabama had to win that away from home. Penn State has a home game against Temple…even I could win that game if I had some friends come over and suit up. So I give the nod to Alabama after four games.
Game five: Alabama slaps #3 Georgia in their face, in the Bulldogs’ home 41-30 while Penn State beats #22 Illinois 38-24 at home.
Both quality wins to be sure, but there is no denying that to beat a then high ranked team in their house is much better than beating a lower ranked team while at home. That is not to take anything away from Penn State, it’s just that Alabama’s win was clearly more impressive. Give a strong nod to Alabama.
Game six: Alabama escapes Kentucky 17-14 at home while Penn State travels to Purdue and win 20-6.
Two key conference games, but different looks on it. Sure, Alabama won, but it was close to a team many thought was overachieving with a soft schedule. You could justify it by saying it was a letdown after the big win at Georgia. Penn State wins a game against a mid-card team in Purdue, but a conference game nevertheless. I’d like to say this one would be about even, but if forced to pick I would say PSU’s win is slightly better ONLY because it was an away game. But overall, I still have Alabama as the better team of the two.
Game seven: Alabama survives a home game vs. Ole Miss 24-20 while Penn State stomps on Wisconsin AT Wisconsin 48-7.
I know the Badgers ain’t what they were last year but this is still a big win for Penn State to beat a conference foe in their house by this much. Alabama has actually had a few games that were too close for call, and it could signal the actual strength of the team. Granted every conference game can be tough, but beating Ole Miss by 4 points in your house does not compare to crushing a conference foe known for winning by over 40 points. Huge nod to Penn State for this week, and it draws the two teams even to me.
Now we know Alabama has not played an 8th game yet, but Penn State has, defeating Michigan at home 46-17. This win, even against a rebuilding conference foe, is a strong indication of how well Penn State is playing. If I give credit to Alabama for beating a rebuilding Arkansas, I must give the same to PSU. So although with unbalanced games at this point, I might have Penn State ahead of Alabama with a slight nod.
But let’s look at the strength of schedule. Alabama’s foes are currently 24-25, with key teams being Georgia at 6-1 and Kentucky at 5-2. Penn State’s foes are currently 22-35 with strong teams being Illinois at 4-3 and Oregon State at 4-3. If you had to look at it this way, I might have to agree that Alabama is currently slightly better than Penn State, but not by a whole lot.
I think the game vs. Costal Carolina may hurt Penn State’s strength of schedule, but I guess I cannot argue about Alabama being #2. This does not mean it will end that way, because if Alabama loses any games, they will fall hard, and I just can’t see Alabama running the tables in the SEC AND winning the SEC Championship. In fact, it would not surprise me if they lost 2 games before the end of the season. The LSU game is their biggest, but they better not forget Tennessee or Auburn. Penn State has a huge game against Ohio State and one at the end of the season against Michigan State.
It’s not a cakewalk for either team, but if both finish out, and go perfect, you have to give the nod, however slight, to Alabama.
As of Monday, October 20th of 2008, we can all agree to some degree that Alabama is the second best team in the nation. With the current BCS poll out, we see that the clear number 1 at the moment is Texas, and I don’t think anybody is going to argue that.
Second place is Alabama, with Penn State behind. These three teams are all undefeated, and come out of three different conferences. It’s a cinch that any two teams that finish undefeated will play in the Championship Bowl, especially if they come out of the Big 12 and the SEC.
But I wondered if Penn State might be slightly better than Alabama, and thus should have maybe moved up over the Tide. Well, let’s look at this and see if there is any credibility to my argument.
What I am going to do is look at each game and see who should have the upper hand between Alabama and Penn State. We’re going on a wide assumption that Texas will go undefeated, but understand that this is just speculation. Any team can lose on any Saturday.
The fact that Alabama’s BCS rating of .9487 and Penn State’s rating of .8666 seems to imply that there is a pretty valid argument for Alabama is better suited for the second spot, let’s examine this game by game:
First game: Alabama beats #9 ranked Clemson in Clemson 34-10 while Penn State beats Coastal Carolina at home 66-10.
At the beginning of they year, there is no question that of the two games, Alabama looked MUCH better. Penn State beat a team they were supposed to beat, while Alabama pulled off one of the early surprises of the year. This is what rocketed the Tide off to a great start.
Second game: Alabama beats Tulane at home 20-6 while Penn State crushes Oregon State 45-14 at home.
Of these two games, Penn State had the tougher challenge, and proved that a good team can beat another good team with that kind of margin. Alabama handles their business against a lesser foe, but maybe the low score comes of the high of beating Clemson the week before. If I said Alabama was the better of the two schools after the first game, I might still have Alabama better but with Penn State gaining on a slim margin.
Third game: Alabama beats Western Kentucky 41-7 at home while Penn State beats Syracuse AT Syracuse 55-13.
This one is almost even, since neither of the two losing teams makes a heavy impact on the National Championship team. But if you forced me to pick a better team from this, I have to say Penn State ONLY because Syracuse is from a power conference school. This also implies that if Syracuse was to play Western Kentucky, then the Orangemen should win. But that’s theory. So after three games, I might have both Alabama and Penn State about dead even.
Game four: Alabama beats Arkansas AT Arkansas 49-14 while Penn State beats Temple at home 45-3.
I give Alabama the nod here because even though Arkansas is rebuilding, it is still a conference game and Alabama had to win that away from home. Penn State has a home game against Temple…even I could win that game if I had some friends come over and suit up. So I give the nod to Alabama after four games.
Game five: Alabama slaps #3 Georgia in their face, in the Bulldogs’ home 41-30 while Penn State beats #22 Illinois 38-24 at home.
Both quality wins to be sure, but there is no denying that to beat a then high ranked team in their house is much better than beating a lower ranked team while at home. That is not to take anything away from Penn State, it’s just that Alabama’s win was clearly more impressive. Give a strong nod to Alabama.
Game six: Alabama escapes Kentucky 17-14 at home while Penn State travels to Purdue and win 20-6.
Two key conference games, but different looks on it. Sure, Alabama won, but it was close to a team many thought was overachieving with a soft schedule. You could justify it by saying it was a letdown after the big win at Georgia. Penn State wins a game against a mid-card team in Purdue, but a conference game nevertheless. I’d like to say this one would be about even, but if forced to pick I would say PSU’s win is slightly better ONLY because it was an away game. But overall, I still have Alabama as the better team of the two.
Game seven: Alabama survives a home game vs. Ole Miss 24-20 while Penn State stomps on Wisconsin AT Wisconsin 48-7.
I know the Badgers ain’t what they were last year but this is still a big win for Penn State to beat a conference foe in their house by this much. Alabama has actually had a few games that were too close for call, and it could signal the actual strength of the team. Granted every conference game can be tough, but beating Ole Miss by 4 points in your house does not compare to crushing a conference foe known for winning by over 40 points. Huge nod to Penn State for this week, and it draws the two teams even to me.
Now we know Alabama has not played an 8th game yet, but Penn State has, defeating Michigan at home 46-17. This win, even against a rebuilding conference foe, is a strong indication of how well Penn State is playing. If I give credit to Alabama for beating a rebuilding Arkansas, I must give the same to PSU. So although with unbalanced games at this point, I might have Penn State ahead of Alabama with a slight nod.
But let’s look at the strength of schedule. Alabama’s foes are currently 24-25, with key teams being Georgia at 6-1 and Kentucky at 5-2. Penn State’s foes are currently 22-35 with strong teams being Illinois at 4-3 and Oregon State at 4-3. If you had to look at it this way, I might have to agree that Alabama is currently slightly better than Penn State, but not by a whole lot.
I think the game vs. Costal Carolina may hurt Penn State’s strength of schedule, but I guess I cannot argue about Alabama being #2. This does not mean it will end that way, because if Alabama loses any games, they will fall hard, and I just can’t see Alabama running the tables in the SEC AND winning the SEC Championship. In fact, it would not surprise me if they lost 2 games before the end of the season. The LSU game is their biggest, but they better not forget Tennessee or Auburn. Penn State has a huge game against Ohio State and one at the end of the season against Michigan State.
It’s not a cakewalk for either team, but if both finish out, and go perfect, you have to give the nod, however slight, to Alabama.
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