Saturday, October 18, 2008

The BEST college football team

The BEST college football team

With a little more than an hour before the Saturday begins with the college games, I wanted to take a moment to consider who the best college football team really is. I mean, it is actually a theoretical question because nobody can really answer that. Sure we have our rankings and the BCS poll is due out this weekend, so we can get an idea of what the theory is on the best team.

What I mean by “best” is the idea that this team is better than all others, and can beat them more times than they lose. Notice what I said there, in that even the best teams CAN lose. Some of you might argue that it then would not make them best, but that is not correct. I said “best” not “perfect”. Nobody can say who is perfect but we can give our opinions on who is the “best”.

Just look at the polls. There is the AP Poll, the USA Today Poll, the Harris Poll, the Legends Poll, and tons of other polls across the country. This proves that we all have an opinion to what we believe the best team actually is. But remember, it’s just an opinion. And opinions are often based on a bias.

For example, I have nothing against Florida State, and we know they won Thursday against NC State, but if there was a top 30 poll, FSU would be on it. Some say they may make the top 25 this week. I can’t see it.

You’re telling me that a team that beat TWO Southern Conference teams and has beaten no team with a better than .500 record is amongst the top 30 in the nation? I am not convinced. That is not to say it won’t change, because if they sweep the schedule, then they would have proven it. But as of now, I cannot see why some people have them near the top 25.

But that’s their opinion.

And how Notre Dame is even GETTING votes is just insane. You can tell who’s been brown-nosing with votes like that.

Still, the idea is to determine the BEST team in the NCAA. How do you do that without being biased? I mean, how many of you saw Texas beat Oklahoma on television last week? That game influenced a LOT of people, and rightly so. But others felt Alabama was slighted because they did not play last weekend…it also factored in that they had a pretty weak showing in their last game.

In the AP Poll, the #1 team and the #10 team are separated by 518 votes. That’s pretty tight. In the USA Poll, first and 10th are separated by 547 votes. So what really makes a team the “best”?

The easiest thing to say is a team’s record, but that is subject to debate. I mean, really, if records determined the best teams, then Tulsa should be up there in the top 10. I think there are 10 remaining undefeated teams in Division I (yeah I know, FBS, but who cares). And if you ARE going by records as the priority, then any team with a loss should be out of the top 10. That includes USC, Ohio State, Florida, Georgia and Oklahoma.

So we have to agree that a team’s record is NOT the deciding factor of whether that team is the best. A second argument would be the strength of schedule, which is quite valid.

I mean, if you play 11 teams with a losing record, do you really think you deserve a chance to play in the National Championship? Your perfect record is a weak structure of non-competitive games, and does not make for a great team.

But by this measure, this hurts a lot of the smaller conferences. Teams like Ball State are going to be judged by this because their schedule is not nearly as tough as teams like Texas or Florida or Ohio State. Should that take away from their greatness?

Well, sadly, it must.

The sympathetic way to look at this is to just GIVE a team a shot at a national title if they go undefeated, but that is not how it works. The National Championship goes to the two BEST teams in the nation…you have to be the BEST. Ball State is playing very well, no doubt about that, but could you really say that they are one of the two best teams in the nation, even if they go undefeated?

Their conference makes for a weaker strength of schedule, and this isn’t their fault, this is just the nature of the Division I. But we cannot ignore that strength of schedule plays a big role.

And consider this as well, strength of schedule changes weekly, and should be adjusted in the teams.

For example, when BYU beat Washington, many thought this was a big victory for BYU, even though Washington wasn’t very good last year. Then the win over UCLA seemed to indicate that BYU was clearly one of the best teams in the nation. Defeating two Pac-10 teams, whoever they are, is a nice feather.

But as the season went on, we began to see that maybe those two teams wasn’t as good as we gave them credit for. Maybe BYU didn’t beat quality teams and thus were riding opinionated shoulders to the rankings.

Even UCLA is proof of that, they started out their season beating Tennessee, which most saw as a HUGE upset…but Tennessee at this point isn’t as good as we thought, so the idea of their greatness and the actuality are now in great contrast. They just are not the team we thought they were….to kinda twist a phrase by Dennis Green.

Even USC’s big win over Virginia at the beginning of the year proves the every changing strength of schedule. When Southern Cal mopped up Virginia, the media was already crowning the Trojans as the National Champs. I mean, Virginia is a great team, so to whip them like a dog proves that USC was great, right?

But now that same Virginia is struggling just to make it to a bowl, and a loss today to UNC might mark the end of the season. And of course, USC lost that game to Oregon State, and now are praying for a few upsets to get back in the race.

Every game, every weekend changes the strength of schedule for every team trying to make it to that coveted BCS Championship, but right now, two teams are in the driver’s seat: Texas and Alabama. About 40-50 votes separate them, which also brings in a third factor, something they call “style points”.

The NCAA tried to ignore this in their BCS equation, but to me that is foolish. You tell me who gets more consideration and more votes: Texas beats Missouri IN Texas by a score of 35-30, Alabama beats Mississippi IN Alabama 21-6 or Penn State beating Ohio State AT Ohio 35-14.

Tell me who has the greater influence on the voters?

It’s the human element of impressing voters and it cannot be ruled out. I don’t care what anyone else says, the more points you score, the more votes you are going to get. If you crush a team 56-3 and another team beats that same opponent 17-14, you look much better. It proves that you were more dominant against a common foe.

Now, does that mean you are better…not necessarily, but it does give voters a reason to THINK you are.

This is a topic that I think the media will be debating for a long time, which is why some want the playoffs. Personally, I like debate, so it does not bother me at all. But at any rate, it’s something to think about.

Anyway, it’s less than an hour before kickoff, gotta get ready!