Thursday, September 3, 2009

Should Notre Dame start out as #23?

Should Notre Dame be #23?

Here is an interesting question that a lot of college football fans may be asking; Does Notre Dame deserve to be ranked in the top 25?

This is a legit question because the preseason rankings should reflect who the best 25 college football teams are in the nation. And it is all speculative, based on what “experts” think will happen.

But a huge part of that is based off last year’s success too, and for that reason, we have to start there. The question we have to address is, does Notre Dame deserve to be on the top 25, at #23?

We start from last year.

The Fighting Irish finished last year with a 7-6 record, capped off with a huge win in Hawaii over…well…Hawaii. Notre Dame started the season beating San Diego State 21-13...San Diego would finish the season 2-10.

Notre Dame would then have a “big name” matchup with Michigan, winning 35-17, but we all saw how terrible Michigan’s season was, ending up with a 3-9 record. To this point, Notre Dame’s 2-0 record comprised of teams who would finish the season 5-19.

Why is this important? Because to be a top 25 teams, it is more than wins, you have to be good teams, teams that you can hang your hat on. You can go 11-0 or 12-0 and seem like a great team, but if you have not played real competition, how then can you be seen as a top 25 team?

Let’s continue…

In an away game, Notre Dame loses to Michigan State 23-7, but rebounds against Purdue, winning 38-21. Michigan State was indeed a good team, but the Irish did not beat them. Purdue however, was 4-8.

Stanford was the next opponent for Notre Dame, giving the Irish a 4-1 record and starting to look like a top 25 caliber. But Stanford would finish 5-7. So to this point, Notre Dame has 4 wins against teams with losing records, and their lone loss was to a team that was above par.

This is what a lot of voters miss when they vote for the top 25, lots of times it turns out to be a popularity contest, not one where the best teams qualify. Now I will admit, 4-1 is a very good record, and with it being still early, it could be possible for Notre Dame to get a ranking out of this, but many would question the level of talent they are playing.

The next game was in Chapel Hill, losing to UNC 29-24. The Tarheels would go on to an 8-5 record as Notre Dame now slips to 4-2. But they would make up for it the next game, by playing Washington and winning big 33-7, to up the record to 5-2.

And that looks fine, but Washington finished the season 0-12.

So again, strength of schedule has to apply somewhere. Notre Dame has 5 wins, but none against teams that are average. They have two losses to teams with better than .500 records. This would be further complicated when they lost their next two games to Pittsburgh and Boston College, both winning teams at the end of the season, both winning 9 games.

The first credible win of the year comes when they beat Navy 27-21 to get their record to 6-4, but loses an embarrassing game to Syracuse 24-23 to make the record 6-5. They take the hit from Southern Cal to finish the regular season and as mentioned before, beat Hawaii.

When you look back at this, only two games give Notre Dame any credibility as being a top 25 team…beating Navy and Hawaii, but with a 7-6 record, it hardly screams of a major power in the NCAA. Yet from then to now, the voters have put the Irish in the top 25, at #23. A lot of this is based on speculation that the players that were there last year will play better this year. I won’t argue that, because that applies theoretically to ANY team, but the speculation is also clouded by preconceived thoughts of the schedule.

This year, Notre Dame starts the season against Nevada, then goes TO Michigan, home for Michigan State and away at Purdue. With 7 home games, this plays to the Irish’s favor. Add to this that Michigan State might be the only obstacle early on, and you can see how Notre Dame can be 3-1 after the first 4 games.

The next three games are at home, where they will invite Washington, Southern Cal and Boston College to their confines. The key game is that USC game, but Boston College has a recent advantage over Notre Dame. It is possible that the Irish could come out of this 4-3, or even 5-2 before traveling to Washington State to pick up another win against a team that won 2 games last year.

Notre Dame ends the season home against Navy, on the road at Pittsburgh, home against UCONN and across the country at Stanford. Notre Dame could possibly win all these games, but outside of Pittsburgh, the strength of schedule could be argued. For sake of the argument, I will say that the Fighting Irish will win 3 games out of the final four.

This means by the end of the year, Notre Dame could have a 8-3 record, and likely an invite to a BCS bowl. But is this a strong schedule? I mean, Notre Dame ought to be able to schedule any team it wants, and most teams would jump at the chance to play them, whether home or away… is this just a time to pad up numbers and put lipstick on the proverbial pig?

Granted Boston College, with 9 wins last year would indeed be a good win to take.

Navy is a pretty decent team, so I can’t argue a win against them either.

Nevada is average at best, and to me, if Notre Dame beats them, it does not make them much better.

Of the Big East teams, I think UCONN is a little overrated but a good team. I can’t argue Pittsburgh either, but also add to this that many people felt the Big East overall, was weak. Should Notre Dame beat both, I can’t argue it.

Of the Big 10 teams, only Michigan State is credible. Beating Michigan and Purdue would not really make Notre Dame seem so much better, unless both teams make some serious moves upward this year, as opposed to last year.

And of the Pac-10 teams, we know how good USC is, but Washington, Washington State and Stanford collectively had 7 wins…it would hardly qualify to me as big wins if Notre Dame wins those.

So overall, I think Notre Dame’s schedule is average. If you beat USC, then you are in the mix, but nobody sees that happening. So the question comes back, is Notre Dame WORTH the top 25 ranking?

If it is indeed based on last years performance and what carries over to this year, I guess I could see them maybe #25, or just off the radar. I clearly don’t see them as one of the elite teams, but the soft schedule just might buy them a BCS bowl. They have the schedule to get there, and I personally see them winning either 7 or 8 games. If they don’t win 8 or more, they won’t be considered in the BCS, but if they get 8, it just might be possible.

We have a whole season to see how this pans out, but the voters have spoken. Notre Dame IS one of the top 25 teams…but can they keep it?

Oregon vs Boise State

Oregon vs. Boise State

WOW, a big time matchup already!

A lot of things will be answered in the first game of the college football season. It will tell us how strong Oregon will be in the Pac 10, and it will tell us if Boise State will become the proverbial “thorn in the side” for the entire season.

This is THE game to watch, even though I will be watching the South Carolina vs. NC State game (local game for us). But if this is on tv, you best believe I got my eyes on it.

One could wonder, which is better if you had to call it before the season started. I mean, Oregon finished 10-3 while Boise State finished 12-1. This one game is going to set the stage for a lot of action in the Pac 10 and the nation. So let’s take a look at these two powerhouses and try to figure out who just might be the winner tonight.

We’ll start with Boise State, since they have home field advantage. That alone is a major factor, since they don’t lose at home. The Smurf Turf has been pretty good to the Broncos ( I bet Denver wishes they were there), and this Boise State team has made a very good living off of it. Papa Smurf would be proud.

Boise State started off knocking off Idaho State, then Bowling Green before the big win at Oregon to go 3-0. To many, this was really the only obstacle to keep Boise State from going undefeated. Most thought that the only real chance of them being beaten was possibly by Fresno State. Many people saw the WAC as a sub-par conference, where only one great team can really make noise in the BCS. It seemed that only Nevada would give Boise State any run for their money as the Broncos stampeded through the conference.

But the party ended when they faced TCU, losing by 1 point, 17-16.

Is Boise State credible, or are they a good team coming out of a softer conference? This year’s schedule is not much different, but they do play Miami (OH), and they return the favor of playing Bowling Green away from the blue turf. IF Boise State defeats Oregon tonight, then we could very well be looking at a repeat performance, but the strength of schedule will weight the Broncos down as some will argue that a true champion faces tougher opponents. They play UC Davis…why? Miami (OH)? Why? They were 2-10 last year!

This makes a strong argument against Boise State because in order to really get in that BCS, you have to schedule tougher opponents. On big opponent a year won’t cut it. But this is the first game…anything is possible for now.

Oregon comes in with a strong record in the Pac-10, beating Washington, Utah State and Purdue by a combined total of over 135 points. The problem was, those foes weren’t very tough last year. It seemed that they were brought to reality in the game vs. Boise State, losing only by 5 points, 37-32...but losing nevertheless.

They would lose big to USC and once more to California before beating Oklahoma State in a bowl 42-31. Considering they lost to USC, Boise State and California, that isn’t such a bad trio to lose to, if you HAVE to lose.

This year Oregon has to play two teams from underdog conferences, and they better be ready for them. The Boise State game is just the first game of the season, they also face Utah shortly afterwards, then California after that. Consider folks, of the Ducks first 4 games, three are very strong opponents. They face Southern Cal much later, but the tone will be set by then. We will know much about the Oregon Ducks long before they face USC.

So, who has the advantage? Oregon claims to be a powerful offense, but with a QB with 13 interceptions last year, this will be interesting. And playing AT Boise State, this could be problematic. Oregon NEEDS this win like I need a slice of hot and steamy pizza with all the trimmings….

(pizza….)

But Boise State simply MUST have this win to stay in the picture. If they lose this game, and win all the others, it won’t matter. To them, THIS is the biggest game of the regular season. I might believe they are out to prove a point, and they could very well do that this year. But losing some valuable seniors might be the one flaw that might cost them that BCS shot….

Who do I have? I think Boise State, by the slimmest of margins, can win, by 2 points. We’ll see.

Utah vs Utah State

Utah State vs. Utah

Here is a game that has a lot of importance to the BCS.

Recall if you will one of the teams that was a thorn in the side of the BCS, that being this team, Utah. It’s odd that there are several games to kick off the season that remind us of old rivalries played at the end of the season. But this game is important in that it is the first steps for Utah to try to get back to where they were.

Utah comes out of the Mountain West Conference, while Utah State comes out of the Western Athletic Conference. This game comes on tonight, but because I am on the east coast, I am likely not going to be able to see it. Might be a pretty good game.

Let’s recap these two teams and see what they’ll look like this year:

We’ll start with Utah State, who had a pretty rough year in 2008. Nowhere close to a bowl, the Aggies finished 3-9 and was out of any chance of a post season bowl before Halloween (how’s that for scary). A loss to UNLV to start the season, then a devastating defeat at the hands of Oregon 66-24 seemed to set the tone for the Aggies.

They would then lose to Utah 58-10 before rebounding in a win over Idaho. But from there playing and losing to foes like BYU and Fresno State ended up dropping 4 losses to them, and pretty soon it just looked like the season was over. A good win over rebuilding Hawaii seemed to spark interest but playing Boise State and losing big seemed to cap off the season, although winning the last game of the year vs. New Mexico State.

I’ll be honest, this could be rough for Utah State, granted they played Utah, BYU and Boise State as well as Oregon, those are four tough games. But two of their wins was against teams with 4 wins combined…something has to change. The schedule starts out very rough, playing Utah, then Texas A&M and BYU, all inside of 4 games…ugggh!

If there is any hope for Utah State to make this a successful season (meaning wining 6 games) it has to start with S. Utah. No, it’s not much, but it is a win, and maybe they can repeat the performance by beating New Mexico State, Nevada and maybe Louisiana Tech. Getting 5 wins will be hard, and it won’t start tonight.

Utah on the other hand, Utah Utes look to punch a hole in the BCS, and it starts with a beat down tonight. As you know, the Utes went 13-0, sweeping every opponent in their sights. A perfect 8-0 in the conference and topped off the season with a 31-17 spanking of SEC foe Alabama.

What do you do for an encore? What else…shoot for the BCS Championship.

But how much credit will they give Utah? Beating Michigan last year seemed cool, but turned out to be something a half decent high school team could have done, considering how terrible Michigan was. I don’t blame Utah for that, they played the opponent and won. But much has been said for the strength of schedule, that Utah’s foes have not really been of high quality. Of their first 5 games, only the Air Force game was credible.

But how can you deny wins over Oregon State, TCU and BYU? Clearly this is an excellent team, and to me, very deserving of the credits any top 10 team should have. This year they have Oregon and Louisville on the schedule, and they have to see TCU and BYU again. To me, if they sweep, they must be given STRONG consideration for the BCS, but I did not say it should be automatic.

Clearly, Utah is the heavy favorites, and my money’s on the Utes. The real drama for them will play out over the next few months. Can they go undefeated…hmmmm……

South Carolina vs NC State

South Carolina vs. NC State

In about 5hours the college football season will…well…kick off, and one of the first games for the college football championship series is a neighborhood brawl between South Carolina and NC State. A good ole’ clash between the ACC and the SEC.

Now if this battle was based on conferences, then the ACC would be severely lacking in power, meaning NC State would be in for a world of hurt, but South Carolina wasn’t exactly on the top ten list last year either. This is a key game, even though the first of the year. Lets look at both and see what they’re about:

The South Carolina Gamecocks finished last year 7-6, just a sliver above the .500 mark, which is indeed an accomplishment in the SEC. Let’s face it folks this was one of the two toughest conferences in the nation, and Steve Spurrier did a good job to come out with a winning record. They won conference games against Arkansas and Tennessee, but some may argue that those were home games…you are supposed to win those. But they also had away games vs. Mississippi and Kentucky.

And oh by the way, they beat NC State last year, 34-0.

The knock on the Gamecocks was that they were one of the worst rushing teams in Division I and was near the bottom in scoring, averaging about 20 points a game. In fact they seemed to be doing pretty well, beating Tennessee by 21, then followed it up with a win over Arkansas by 13, but the bottom fell out when they lost big to Florida 56-6, then to Clemson 31-14, and ended the season in a bowl, losing to Iowa 31-10. The fans down in South Carolina expect a better record from the old ball coach.

The NC State Wolfpack comes off a rough season, winning only 6 games last year and losing 7. This is a team that has been trying to “turn that corner” for years, and has not had a lot of success doing so. What’s interesting is that they won’t be playing ECU, as it has always been a huge matchup in the state. But you look at they schedule they had last year and you wonder if they can turn the corner this year as well.

They lost the first game last year to South Carolina in a shutout, 34-0, then ran into some problems after beating William & Mary. But they salvaged the season by winning 4 straight games. Beating Duke, Wake Forest, UNC and Miami in good form helped them to a bowl, where they lost to Rutgers in a close game. Some say the Wolfpack just might be the team to watch. With their schedule including Murray State and Gardner-Webb after the South Carolina game, it’s quite possible they could be 2-1 before they see Pittsburgh. With a lot of home games, and games inside North Carolina, this could be in interesting team to watch.

So having said all this, who has the advantage?

All things being equal, to me the edge still stands with South Carolina, but I won’t put that much on that. True, South Carolina crushed the Wolfpack last year, and I will not argue the strength of the SEC to the ACC. But the Gamecocks had one of the weakest offensive units in Division I, not that the Wolfpack was so much better. It’s going to come down to coaching power, and Steve Spurrier is one of the best. Granted Tom O’Brien is good, having coached at Boston College, but NC State still has some work to do in order to be considered a legit top 25.

I think this will be an interesting game to watch (and I will be watching) but I see South Carolina winning this by 10 points. I have to imagine that SC knows they need to work on offense because it will make or break their season. Both teams would love to see the post season, and tonight is the first step in seeing that.

Hope you guys enjoy the game!

2009 College Football is HERE!

2009 College Football Begins!

Shall we dance?

Tonight as I blog this out (although it is actually 1:18 in the afternoon), college football begins. I have not written in awhile, but with the excitement of the upcoming college games, and the season, there may well be much to talk about. Right now every team has a chance to make it to the National Championships…but we know that more than half the teams are already eliminated.

The fun will see how this story unfolds, the debates, arguments and the success stories of the upcoming college season. Believe me, I am ready to jump in this, I love writing about football.

I had actually been gone so long I forgot where my blogs were, and had to hunt them down and remember what I had posted. I hope as the season rolls on, there will be much to speak about, and already there are stories that are controversial…take Michigan.

I would like to get into that a little more, but at this moment I just need to knock some rust off the keys as I prepare for the season. Another topic is Notre Dame, and how they could possibly got a top 25 ranking…based off WHAT?

Oh yeah, this will be a nice year to yap about….

Anyway, look forward to more posts as the season goes on, not just college football, but the NFL and other stories as we go along. Before I start to sink my teeth into this season, I hope you remember that what I talk about is in the context of sports, knowing that we can’t all agree on any one thing…except that college football fans love college football, and NFL fans love NFL. I am both. We certainly won’t agree on the teams we like and dislike, but I hope you remember that it is just a game…heh heh.

(he said, KNOWING his Raiders are in SERIOUS trouble this year…)

Anyway, look for some more blogs as we go along…let’s all enjoy the ride!