NEW BCS top 8, November 4th 2009

My NEW BCS Top 8

I know the real BCS scores are out, and right now if you are an undefeated team, you are on that top 10 list easily, but there are also a few one-loss teams that are making a statement to try to get to that BCS Championship.

As I speak there are still technically MANY teams that can fight for that Championship game. To be truthful, at this moment if you have one loss, you are still in the mix IF you are in a BCS conference.

For example, from the ACC there is still Georgia Tech with one loss. You have Pittsburgh with one loss from the Big East, and Penn State from the Big 10. LSU still has one loss in the SEC, while Oregon remains with only one loss from the first game of their season. And although they are not a BCS Conference, I give Utah a nod too because the Mountain West Conference is as tough as most of the BCS conferences this year.

But because Oregon defeated USC in a major game, I would, at least for the moment, make them the best one loss team in the nation, and include them in my list of the top 8...this is temporary, because I have not run other teams through my NEW BCS formula. I only did the 7 undefeated teams and Oregon. So for the moment, I have my top 8 teams, based on my formula.

#8 Oregon (291 points): This is premature, because I have not run the other one loss teams through my formula, but I will give them the TEMPORARY benefit of the doubt for this spot because they knocked off USC, which was a major win. But because they have played a lot of the bottom feeders of the Pac-10, this could be with mixed reviews.

#7 Boise State (300 points): You see here how a BCS team with one loss is almost as good as a team from a weak conference like Boise State? To their credit, they have won every game, including beating Oregon, but when your WAC schedule turns weak as water, there isn’t much respect that one can give over the other teams. Beating one great team is awesome, but to be a BCS Champ, you gotta beat more than one a year.

#6 Cincinnati (303 points): Only 3 points make the difference between Cincinnati and Boise State, and the strength of schedule favors Cincinnati. Granted, both teams are seen as underdogs, but if the Bearcats can get that big game with Pittsburgh without them losing another game, it would clearly validate them over Boise State…still gotta win to get there though.

#5 TCU (311 points): TCU to me is coming out of a better and stronger conference at the moment than Cincinnati. Having Utah, BYU and Air Force makes a pretty tough conference, not to take anything away from the Big East. But the formula also shows that this TCU team has a very good defense, and they do have 2 quality wins over top 25 teams, as opposed to one by Boise State or Cincinnati.

#4 Florida (326 points): The difference between Florida and the two teams above them is only 5 points…this is razor thin. But you can easily guess one of those teams above Florida, and if both go undefeated, they would meet in the SEC Championship… as I said on other blogs, this is a problem that will solve itself.

#3 Alabama (331 points): Alabama is by my stats the best defensive team on the list, and this is what helped them lock in this spot. But some wonder how good this team is, and we will learn everything this weekend when LSU plays Alabama. If they get by LSU, we expect a date with Florida in the SEC Championships. Few will argue that the winner goes to the BCS Championship.

#2 Texas (332 points): Slimmest of margins make Texas almost a shoe in for the BCS Championship. The Big 12 isn’t as dangerous as it was last year, and Texas has no equal. The next few games could be a walk in the park, but the Longhorns have to be careful not to slip up on games they are favored to win. Texas gets a bonus game in the Big 12 Championship, which if they win should remove any doubt as to them being either the best, or second best, in the nation.

#1 Iowa (342 points): Many wonder if Iowa could squeeze in the BCS if they go undefeated, and my formula has them as the best team in the nation…BUT there is an exception here. Iowa is the only team in this list with 9 games and 9 wins. That extra game gives them many more points above anyone with 8 wins. As you can see, they have 11 points more than Texas, who is number 2. But a couple of weeks ago when I started doing this, Iowa had about a 40 point lead, having played one more game than anybody else. What this may be showing is that as the season goes on, we learn the true strength of Iowa in that even after 9 wins, their hold on the number 1 spot is very small…and apparently shrinking.

So if the season ended now, one might assume that I am saying that Iowa and Texas plays in the National Championship…not really. Remember, Iowa has played more games at this point than anybody else, and is benefiting from that advantage. All things being equal, it seems to boil back down to Texas vs. the likely winner of the Alabama/Florida SEC championship …but that is only if Alabama gets by LSU.

And what if Iowa beats Ohio State?

What if Cincinnati beats Pittsburgh?

So many questions…but all will be told in time….