Friday, October 16, 2009

Is being undefeated enough for BCS?

Is being Undefeated enough?

You know, I was watching one of my favorite shows, “Around the Horn”, and there was a discussion with the panel about whether Boise State should be in the BCS Championship if they go undefeated. This on the heels of them barely beating Tulsa a couple of nights ago.

The discussion split the panel, in where two of the guys felt that it should not guarantee them into the BCS, and the other two felt that it should because if a team goes undefeated, they ought to be considered for a National Championship.

Pardon me, but I think the latter half of that is garbage.

The two columnists who think that can’t possibly be using logic. But it brings in the idea that simply winning all your games is enough to validate being one of the best teams in the nation.

Remind me how many games Ball State won last year…didn’t they go 12-0? They won every game in front of them, but let’s be brutally honest, do YOU really think they were a top 3, or top 5, or even top 10 team? Absolutely not.

Columnists Jackie Macmullen and Woody Paige (spelling may need checking), seem to agree that if Boise State goes undefeated, then they ought to have a shot at the BCS Championship. I could not disagree more.

This places a false sense of credibility ONLY on wins. For many people, the idea that wins is the ONLY factor is a major mistake, one that only the foolish would look at. The BCS National Championship is set aside for the BEST two teams in the nation… not the best looking records.

Woody and Jackie need to really study up on that.

You can have a pretty record and still not be in the top 10. Again, I bring to you Ball State, who beat everybody in their way last year, but because they came out of the Mid American Conference, few gave them real credit. In fact the realization of the truth actually had a very damaging effect on this team.

They found out that just because you have a perfect record does NOT guarantee you any conversation with the best in college football. In fact, once they realized the truth, it destroyed their faith in making a BCS, because they ended up not only losing in the conference championship game, not only in their post season bowl, not only their first game this year to a North Texas that was 1-11 this year…

They are currently 0-6.

It is a sad story about how crushing reality is when a team sees that perfection by records does not equate to greatness. To be sure, their record is indeed great, I give them all the credit in the world for finishing perfect in the regular season, but the rest of the nation will not do as much.

Such is the same for Boise State.

What has been proven is that being undefeated is not the only proof of greatness when it comes to a National Championship. Jackie and Woody seem to be totally ignorant on the fact that Boise State does not play a CHAMPIONSHIP level of competition. Because they don’t there is no way you can consider them for a BCS Championship simply based on the record.

Let me give you an example, and see if you agree:

Since Notre Dame is an Independent team, with no affiliations with any conference, they could set up their schedule thusly, with the team and last year’s record:

Army (3-9)
New Mexico State (2-9)
Idaho (2-10)
North Texas (1-11)
Mississippi State (4-8)
Washington State (2-11)
San Diego State (2-11)
Toledo (3-9)
Tulane (2-10)
Syracuse (3-9)
Iowa State (2-10)
Duke (4-8)

Now, what if Notre Dame beats all these teams and goes 12-0?

Would that make them one of the two best teams in the nation? After all, 5 of those wins would be from BCS Conferences, right? They would have beaten a team from every BCS conference except the Big 10.

I challenge you to believe that if a team played that type of schedule, and won every game, that they could possibly be considered a valid BCS contender. This is an argument that takes no account into the strength of schedule. Just winning your games is not enough to say that a perfect team deserves a BCS Title shot. There has to be credible wins to prove that you are indeed one of the best, not just because your record is nice and shiny, but that you BEAT quality opponents.

It’s like boxing, where lots of times you see guys with nice records like 15-0, with 14 knockouts, and you wonder why you never heard of them before. It’s because lots of times boxers like to build up a pretty record to get attention, but when it is time to prove it in the ring, often times they show that the record was based on soft competition.

Boise State does play a decent schedule, but don’t tell me that their perfect record is better than TCU, who has to play multiple ranked teams in a tougher conference than Boise State. Don’t tell me that the Broncos perfect record is better than Cincinnati, who comes out of a BCS conference, and beating multiple ranked teams.

It’s not enough to just win folks, you have to schedule the tough opponents so that your wins are credible. I believe that IF 8 out of the top 10 teams lose another game, and if Boise State continues to win, then they should get strong consideration for a BCS, but even then it’s not a lock. Do I believe they would be better than a Florida with one loss, or Alabama, or Texas (if they all lose during the season)?

Not at all.

Boise State is still in the mix, let’s not forget that, but as it stands now, their perfect record does not have a lot of strong competition, other than Oregon. That is a great win for the school, no doubt…but one good win does not make you great. And although they did beat Oklahoma…how long ago was that?

If you wanted to show that you were a true power, why didn’t they try to schedule Oklahoma during the regular season…I am sure the Sooners would have loved to have some “get back”. Or how about TCU, since they lost to them last year? There clearly have been opportunities for Boise State to step up and schedule tougher foes, but they have not. Until they do, they cannot be considered an “A” list team until they start beating them more regularly. Not once a year…but a few times a year.

So Boise State might go undefeated, and people will try to pull for the underdog…but remember why they are considered an underdog…it’s because they have not yet proven to be a BIG dog.

Cincinnati in the BCS?

Cincinnati in the BCS?

I didn’t get a chance to blog before the Cincinnati/South Florida game, I wanted to but some things came up. But last night the Bearcats doubled up South Florida 34-17, although it may have cost them their NFL prospect quarterback. (well wishes Pike, get well soon).

But now with them winning, we have an interesting question. ESPN talked about this last night, and the question now is; can Cincinnati qualify and get a BCS Title game?

Actually I think the question is wrong, because that is not the real issue. I mean, right now there are still over 20 teams that have a shot at the title, maybe more. The question is just too vague, because anything can happen from week to week. Although not too likely, it is not out of the realm of possibility that Florida, Alabama, Texas, Boise State, USC, Penn State and Iowa can lose two games.

I didn’t say likely, I said possibly.

I mean, with 6-7 games left for most of these teams, even DUKE has a shot…ugh.

So the question of whether Cincinnati can qualify is a foolish one, because the answer is ABSOLUTELY.

We have to refine that question to something more logical. How about this; what are the chances of Cincinnati becoming one of the two best teams in the nation by the end of the year?

See, if they are one of the two best, then we know they should be considered for a National Championship. So let’s explore this on a few issues: first, the Big East Conference, second, Cincinnati’s schedule, and third, whether they could be considered better than other undefeated teams, or one loss teams.

First, we have to address the Big East. The last couple of years they have been in the dumps, considered by many as a worthless conference (but don’t say that in basketball). I personally felt the Mountain West, with Utah, BYU and TCU was a better football conference than the Big East.

But this is a quality conference, yet the voters showed no respect to any team in the Big East at the beginning of the year. Not one team was in the top 25 at the beginning of the year. I wondered about this because Cincinnati won 11 games last year. How can you deny a team with 11 wins on the top 25, when you got teams like Notre Dame that clearly underachieved, but still made the top 25?

Go figure.

The second argument is Cincinnati themselves. Yes they went 11-3 last year, but those three losses were to Oklahoma, Virginia Tech and Connecticut. The first two I can understand, but the jury is still out on UCONN.

But sweeping the other foes has to count for something. Right now Cincinnati is ranked #8 and is 6-0. If any upsets happen over the weekend, they can easily slide into the top 5. To this date they have only beaten one ranked foe, but they beat Fresno State, who Boise State also beat, and they also beat a Pac-10 foe in Oregon State. These are quality wins, if you put them side by side with a team like Boise State.

And with games against West Virginia and Pittsburgh, this could be some valid games to add on. It is quite possible for the Bearcats to run the table…if healthy.

But the main argument here is whether this team is better than any other undefeated team, or any 1 loss teams out there. Do I believe the Bearcats are better than Florida? No. Do I believe they are better than Texas? No. Do I believe they are better than Alabama…not really.

That alone means they are not, at this point, worthy of a BCS Championship shot, even if they go undefeated. Now, I think that they MIGHT be better than Boise State, and in fact if both go undefeated, the Bearcats will get the greater nod than the Broncos.

So what about 1 loss teams? Is Cincinnati better than Virginia Tech…well, they lost to them last year, didn’t they? Do I think they are better than USC…nope. Do I think they are better than Ohio State…no. Do I think they are better than Miami…hmm, interesting.

But this still keeps them out of the top 5 because right now, they are just not THAT team, no more than Boise State, and right now Boise State rests on the win over Oregon, which if I am correct was ranked #20 when they played. Cincinnati beat South Florida last night, who was ranked #21...so by the slimmest of margins, right now, Boise State is better.

So right now, we can’t say that Cincinnati is good enough to contend for the BCS, they would have to slide into it by fault of other teams. If they are the only undefeated team in the nation by the end of the season, it would immediately eliminate Boise State. If everybody in the top 10 lost one more except Cincinnati, it would eliminate USC, Ohio State, Boise State, Virginia Tech, Miami and LSU.

That would leave 4 teams to fight for it…Florida, Alabama, Texas and Cincinnati. So ask yourself this, if Florida, Alabama and Texas each had one loss, and Cincinnati had none, would you consider Cincinnati for a BCS title?

Would a perfect Bearcats team REALLY be better than the Gators, Crimson Tide or Longhorns?