2010 BCS Bowls

2010 BCS Bowls projections

I know I wrote on this earlier, but that was based on what was happening then… and oddly, after a week or so, not too much has changed, but that will DEFINIATELY change this weekend. So let’s talk on this for a bit.

Now, for those that don’t quite understand all about the BCS, I am right there with ya, but we can at least talk on some theories. I am not saying I know it all, but I am a big fan of college football, so we are in the same boat.

Now, to begin, let’s remember that there are FIVE bowls in the BCS. One is the National Championship, which takes the top two teams in the nation by BCS scores, and leaves the other four to at large teams, with some exceptions. We will get to that in a moment.

What is important to also know is the ORDER of the bowls for 2010, because the order determines who picks first. The first order is always the National Championship, but after that it differs. This year, 2010, the order is Orange Bowl, Fiesta Bowl and Sugar Bowl.

Notice something missing? Rose Bowl? That’s because the Rose Bowl isn’t interested in the BCS to mix their “tradition” with the others, they want to keep their Pac-10 and Big 10 rival cemented. So they are not “in the mix”, although they really are.

So, if we were to look at who was going to the BCS, and the other major bowls, lets first determine, at this very moment, who the top 12 teams are…because that is important:

In order, they are: Florida, Alabama, Texas, TCU, Cincinnati, Boise State and Georgia Tech. Following them are LSU, USC, Iowa, Ohio State and Pittsburgh. And for good measure, we throw in the next three, being Oregon, Miami and Houston.

From this list we can put together our theory about who will be going where. Now, even though we are using theory, we still have to make a slight assumption, one I will get to in a sec.

So let’s start first with the National Championship…who is going to the BCS Championship?

The natural assumption is to take the #1 and #2 teams, in this case being Florida and Alabama…but right off the bat this isn’t accurate. The problem is that both teams are from the SEC, and we all know that they must play each other in the SEC Championship… one team will lose, and fall out.

For the sake of argument let us assume that Florida wins, just the assumption that #1 beats #2. IF we go with that, then we can project Florida in the National Championship against the #3 team, Texas. Now, I know Texas still has to play in their Big 12 Championship just as Florida and Alabama must play in their conference championship but we are just going with the idea that those two SEC teams must eliminate one from the conversation. So the BCS Championship in theory would be Florida and Texas.

Now, after that, things get a little hairy.

Once the National Championship has been determined, a lot of clauses kick in, one being the Rose Bowl. The Rose Bowl gets to select their teams, and because they stick with their tradition, they will take the Pac-10 and Big 10 champions. But this can be misleading.

On the BCS rankings, they have Iowa as the best Big 10 team…but it is Ohio State that will be going to the Rose Bowl, which in theory knocks out the #10 team for the #11 team. This already creates some chaos because the idea in the BCS bowls was to get the top 10 teams in, and this has already been disrupted.

So Ohio State is in, bumping out Iowa. What about the Pac-10? Oregon finishes as the best team in the Pac-10, but USC is ranked at #9, while Oregon is ranked #13... Oh my.

So the Rose Bowl has, in theory, already screwed up the system, because two of the top 10 teams in the nation are snubbed initially for a BCS bowl. So let’s recap a bit:

BCS Championship #1 Florida vs. #3 Texas

Rose Bowl #11 Ohio State vs. #13 Oregon.

Hmm, sounds odd already.

Now, after those two bowls, we can get into the order of selections. Remember, this year the order is Orange, Fiesta and Sugar. So the Orange Bowl gets to select who they want in their bowl in Florida.

Now, just as the Rose Bowl must take the champions of the Pac-10 and Big-10, there are other contracts that must be upheld. The Orange Bowl has a contract with the ACC, meaning they MUST take the ACC Champion unless they are in the National Championship. Since neither Florida or Texas is an ACC team, that means they must take whoever wins the ACC Championship…which at this moment would be either Georgia Tech or Clemson.

Now this is interesting because even though Georgia Tech is ranked #7, Clemson is not on that top 15 list. It would be very embarrassing if a team NOT in the top 15 goes to a BCS bowl. For sake of argument, let us assume that the higher ranked team would win, in this case, Georgia Tech (just like we did the SEC Championship with Florida and Alabama). If this was the case, then Georgia Tech would go to the Orange Bowl because that is the contract with the ACC. It would then leave the Orange Bowl to have the first selection of the remaining teams.

To me, that gives them one of four realistic choices: Alabama, TCU, Cincinnati and Boise State. Once we get into any bowl outside of the National Championship, I think it comes do contracts and ticket sales. With that being the case, we also know that you stand a better chance most times in selling tickets if the teams are closer to the bowl. For that reason, I don’t think Boise State would go to the Orange Bowl…just too far to travel. The same could also be said for TCU to some degree. Would the Orange Bowl take Cincinnati…absolutely. How about Alabama? Absolutely! Either would be a great pick, but the charm of being undefeated might mean more dollars than a nearby SEC school. So I think the Orange Bowl might take a Georgia Tech/ Cincinnati matchup. That means you have a #5 vs. a #7...which isn’t that bad.

That leaves two bowls left, and the Fiesta Bowl has next shot.

With the Fiesta Bowl in Arizona, and with the next two picks, there are a few things this bowl has to keep in mind. One, they have a contractual obligation to the Big 12 conference, and they have to look at location, just like the Orange Bowl. But one of the clauses kicks in here, in that IF a Big 12 team is in the National Championship, then the Fiesta Bowl is free to select any other team. And since Texas, a Big 12 team, is in the championship (as per our theory) that leaves the Fiesta Bowl to take two teams.

So in theory, they could take the two highest ranked teams left, which would be TCU, a one loss Alabama, or Boise State. Now immediately you might think that pitting TCU and Boise State would be simplicity, but I beg to differ. Granted this would be a good game, but we saw that game last year. To sell tickets, the bowl may need to give the fans a unique game, not one just held a year ago. Heck, some people got tired of the USC/Ohio State games, so it makes some sense.

I think TCU has the inside track for the Fiesta Bowl, and it would be against either Boise State or Alabama. For sake of not getting a repeat, I think that the Fiesta Bowl would entertain the TCU/Alabama game because it puts a non BCS against a top ranked BCS school…but the temptation to have two undefeated teams could sway them to go with TCU/Boise State. Personally, I think they will drop Boise State for Alabama.

So let’s recap again:

BCS National Championship #1 Florida vs. #3 Texas…
(theory being if Alabama loses and Texas wins, Texas will be #2)

Orange Bowl ACC Champion Georgia Tech (7) vs. #5 Cincinnati (Big East Champs)
(theory being if GA Tech beats Clemson and Cincinnati beats Pittsburgh)

Rose Bowl #11 Ohio State (Big 10 Champs) vs. #13 Oregon (Pac 10 Champs)

Fiesta Bowl #4 TCU (Mountain West Champs) vs. Alabama (SEC Runner up)

That brings us to the final BCS Bowl, the Sugar Bowl. They get the last two picks, but they have a clause too. They must, by contract, take the SEC Champion, but since Florida is the SEC Champs and in the BCS Championships, they are free to take two teams, just like the Fiesta Bowl.

If things go like we discussed, then the highest ranked team still available would be Boise State. For sake of having an undefeated team, the Sugar Bowl will take them… but there may be a question to how well Boise State travels. I mean, New Orleans isn’t a hop, skip and jump away. But still, it is a logical choice of the remaining teams.

So who will the Boise State Broncos play?

There are still several choices based on the remaining teams on that top 15 ranking, but right off the bat, we can eliminate Houston. Just not strong enough to make a good matchup with Boise State. This leaves LSU, USC, Iowa, Pittsburgh and Miami.

The logical choice is by far LSU, but this brings in another clause…one that prevents LSU from playing in New Orleans. By rule, no conference can put in more than two teams out of their own conference in the BCS Bowls. Remember that LSU is a SEC school…so are Florida and Alabama. This means that in theory, LSU would not, COULD NOT, play in the Sugar Bowl.

That leaves USC, which is probably too far to travel. Then you may have to look at Iowa, Pittsburgh and Miami. If we can assume that Cincinnati is undefeated, then it also means they beat Pittsburgh, which knocks them out of the picture. So this leaves Boise State to play either Iowa or Miami…which would sell more tickets?

Iowa is ranked #10, and Miami currently #14, so that might be the choice, but who travels better? Better traveling means more ticket sales. I think the Big 10 does well in traveling, after all, if they can get to Pasadena, they can surely get to New Orleans. I think Iowa plays Boise State in the Sugar Bowl.

So there you have it, the 10 teams selected in the BCS bowls. Of the top 10 teams, LSU and USC will miss out, and will play in lesser bowls. We shall see. Remember, all this is theory at the moment, just to give you an idea of how this might work out. The truth comes this weekend when many of these teams play their conference championships and final regular season games…

Is being undefeated enough for BCS?

Is being Undefeated enough?

You know, I was watching one of my favorite shows, “Around the Horn”, and there was a discussion with the panel about whether Boise State should be in the BCS Championship if they go undefeated. This on the heels of them barely beating Tulsa a couple of nights ago.

The discussion split the panel, in where two of the guys felt that it should not guarantee them into the BCS, and the other two felt that it should because if a team goes undefeated, they ought to be considered for a National Championship.

Pardon me, but I think the latter half of that is garbage.

The two columnists who think that can’t possibly be using logic. But it brings in the idea that simply winning all your games is enough to validate being one of the best teams in the nation.

Remind me how many games Ball State won last year…didn’t they go 12-0? They won every game in front of them, but let’s be brutally honest, do YOU really think they were a top 3, or top 5, or even top 10 team? Absolutely not.

Columnists Jackie Macmullen and Woody Paige (spelling may need checking), seem to agree that if Boise State goes undefeated, then they ought to have a shot at the BCS Championship. I could not disagree more.

This places a false sense of credibility ONLY on wins. For many people, the idea that wins is the ONLY factor is a major mistake, one that only the foolish would look at. The BCS National Championship is set aside for the BEST two teams in the nation… not the best looking records.

Woody and Jackie need to really study up on that.

You can have a pretty record and still not be in the top 10. Again, I bring to you Ball State, who beat everybody in their way last year, but because they came out of the Mid American Conference, few gave them real credit. In fact the realization of the truth actually had a very damaging effect on this team.

They found out that just because you have a perfect record does NOT guarantee you any conversation with the best in college football. In fact, once they realized the truth, it destroyed their faith in making a BCS, because they ended up not only losing in the conference championship game, not only in their post season bowl, not only their first game this year to a North Texas that was 1-11 this year…

They are currently 0-6.

It is a sad story about how crushing reality is when a team sees that perfection by records does not equate to greatness. To be sure, their record is indeed great, I give them all the credit in the world for finishing perfect in the regular season, but the rest of the nation will not do as much.

Such is the same for Boise State.

What has been proven is that being undefeated is not the only proof of greatness when it comes to a National Championship. Jackie and Woody seem to be totally ignorant on the fact that Boise State does not play a CHAMPIONSHIP level of competition. Because they don’t there is no way you can consider them for a BCS Championship simply based on the record.

Let me give you an example, and see if you agree:

Since Notre Dame is an Independent team, with no affiliations with any conference, they could set up their schedule thusly, with the team and last year’s record:

Army (3-9)
New Mexico State (2-9)
Idaho (2-10)
North Texas (1-11)
Mississippi State (4-8)
Washington State (2-11)
San Diego State (2-11)
Toledo (3-9)
Tulane (2-10)
Syracuse (3-9)
Iowa State (2-10)
Duke (4-8)

Now, what if Notre Dame beats all these teams and goes 12-0?

Would that make them one of the two best teams in the nation? After all, 5 of those wins would be from BCS Conferences, right? They would have beaten a team from every BCS conference except the Big 10.

I challenge you to believe that if a team played that type of schedule, and won every game, that they could possibly be considered a valid BCS contender. This is an argument that takes no account into the strength of schedule. Just winning your games is not enough to say that a perfect team deserves a BCS Title shot. There has to be credible wins to prove that you are indeed one of the best, not just because your record is nice and shiny, but that you BEAT quality opponents.

It’s like boxing, where lots of times you see guys with nice records like 15-0, with 14 knockouts, and you wonder why you never heard of them before. It’s because lots of times boxers like to build up a pretty record to get attention, but when it is time to prove it in the ring, often times they show that the record was based on soft competition.

Boise State does play a decent schedule, but don’t tell me that their perfect record is better than TCU, who has to play multiple ranked teams in a tougher conference than Boise State. Don’t tell me that the Broncos perfect record is better than Cincinnati, who comes out of a BCS conference, and beating multiple ranked teams.

It’s not enough to just win folks, you have to schedule the tough opponents so that your wins are credible. I believe that IF 8 out of the top 10 teams lose another game, and if Boise State continues to win, then they should get strong consideration for a BCS, but even then it’s not a lock. Do I believe they would be better than a Florida with one loss, or Alabama, or Texas (if they all lose during the season)?

Not at all.

Boise State is still in the mix, let’s not forget that, but as it stands now, their perfect record does not have a lot of strong competition, other than Oregon. That is a great win for the school, no doubt…but one good win does not make you great. And although they did beat Oklahoma…how long ago was that?

If you wanted to show that you were a true power, why didn’t they try to schedule Oklahoma during the regular season…I am sure the Sooners would have loved to have some “get back”. Or how about TCU, since they lost to them last year? There clearly have been opportunities for Boise State to step up and schedule tougher foes, but they have not. Until they do, they cannot be considered an “A” list team until they start beating them more regularly. Not once a year…but a few times a year.

So Boise State might go undefeated, and people will try to pull for the underdog…but remember why they are considered an underdog…it’s because they have not yet proven to be a BIG dog.

Top Football Conferences

The top Football Conferences

After the first couple of weeks of the college football season, I’d like to argue which conferences are the best, and why. I wanted to make the argument because no matter what people think, the strength of the conference has a major impact on whether their champion makes a BCS Championship or not. You can’t go undefeated out of a weaker conference and expect to play in the title game.

I love “Pardon the Interruption” it is one of my favorite shows, but I don’t agree with Michael Wilbon’s opinion that if a team goes undefeated, they ought to get a shot at a National Title. He believes that a team like Boise State ought to have a shot if they go undefeated…I don’t quite agree.

If you reward a team out of a weak conference a BCS Championship, then what stops independent teams like Notre Dame from taking out USC on the schedule and substituting Duke, or removing Boston College for Miami (OH)? The quality of opponents must play a factor because it substantiates greatness of a team.

So what I want to do is rank the conferences in order, from best to… well, not so great. Let’s start:

#1 Conference in College Football: SEC A+

If you have the defending National Champs still ranked at #1, AND a team like Alabama at #4, and Mississippi in the top ten, you have a strong conference. Toss in teams like LSU and Georgia and you have a pretty tough conference. Last year there was a great argument of who was the best conference; the SEC or Big 12, and personally I thought that from top to bottom, the Big 12 was ever so slightly better, but you could not go wrong either way. This year, I put SEC on top, but not by such a large margin.

#2 Conference in College Football: Big 12 A

Personally, if Oklahoma had beaten BYU, I would have made the Big 12 the top conference by a slight margin. But with the injury, I had to put them here, by a close margin. You still have Texas as the #2 team in the nation, Oklahoma is still in the mix, and you have teams like Oklahoma State and Kansas still in the mix. What happened to Texas Tech? Missouri is still on the radar, so you have half the conference making noise, and oh by the way Nebraska is in the top 20 too.

#3 Conference in College Football: Pac-10 B-

I had to think long on this one, because I wonder how strong this conference really is. I mean, one of their teams loses to Boise State at the beginning of the season, and eyes start to roll around when it comes to the true strength of the Pac-10. Sure, USC is good, but with a freshman quarterback, how soon before they lose a game…or even two? But they are the #3 team in the nation, with California in the top 10...but after that, what is there? Oregon State is on one poll, and UCLA got a few votes, but many wonder if this conference can give USC a run. If USC wasn’t in the top 3, I would not have put this conference here.

#4 Conference in College Football: Big 10: B-

It didn’t help that Ohio State lost to USC…it didn’t help that Michigan State lost to Central Michigan, and Michigan beating Notre Dame didn’t really count for so much. But Penn State is in the top 5 and Ohio State is still in the top 25. Iowa just might be able to make some noise in the conference, but we have to wait and see on that. The Big 10 has been getting pushed around lately, and need some key wins to validate their strength, they may have to rely on Penn State to get it done, since Ohio State seems to slip whenever the chips are on the table.

#5 Conference in College Football: Mountain West Conference C+

When you have a “lesser” conference with not one, not two but THREE teams in the top 25, you have to pay attention. This is one of those examples where if any team out of the Mountain West goes undefeated, they ought to have a legit shot at the BCS Championship. When you consider that BYU is in the top 10, TCU is in the top 15 and Utah is just outside the top 15, this is a strong conference. And with decent teams like Air Force and Colorado State, this is a very competitive conference. I say again, if either Utah, BYU or TCU goes undefeated, somebody ought to put them in the BCS Championship. Add on that BYU beat Oklahoma and has Florida State on the schedule, TCU beat Virginia (so what) and plays Clemson, and Utah having Oregon and Louisville, these are hard schedules for a team not considered to be with the “big boys”. This is a good conference, one that could produce an undefeated team.

#6 Conference in College Football: ACC C-

Last year I can argue that top to bottom this conference was one of the most competitive. Only two teams failed to win 6 games, that being Virginia and Duke, and the Cavaliers missed it by one game. But this year I questioned why Virginia Tech was so high in the rankings. They are good, but not THAT good. Florida State could not hold on to it’s ranking after the first game, and there were some VERY poorly played games by Florida State and Maryland.

Lots of people felt that the ACC ought not be considered in the BCS, and rather let teams like Boise State or…ugh…Notre Dame, take their spot in the BCS bowls. I can see their point, but this is still a very tough conference, and I doubt a team like Boise State can run through it like they do their conference. Team for team, this is a very tough conference, but in comparison to the others, they do look kinda…bland. Georgia Tech, Miami, Virginia Tech and UNC are on the top 25...but for how long?

#7 Conference in College Football: Big East C-

At the beginning of the year, NOBODY from the Big East was on the list. How insulting is that when 6 out of the 8 teams won at least EIGHT games? Cincinnati went 11-3 and got no love at the beginning of the year…how insulting is that?

Right now Cincinnati is on the bottom half of the top 25, but no other team is on the list. If Pittsburgh wins another game, they can likely climb into the list, but the entire conference looks very weak, in comparison to the other BCS conferences, and even the Mountain West Conference. I gotta tell ya, if the Big East can’t start pulling somebody out as a power team, they will continued to be laughed at as one of the weakest conferences in college football.

With other conferences like the WAC, Sun Belt, Mid-American and Conference USA, there can be arguments made for a few of those as well. We all like the underdog, and Boise State is certainly one of those, but their conference just isn’t strong enough to be in the top 7. That does not take away from the Broncos wins, but when you look at the body of work in conference match ups, it does count against you.

So as of the second week, these are my top 7 conferences in college football… which are clearly subject to change week by week.

Can Notre Dame get to a BCS Bowl?

Can Notre Dame get to BCS Bowl?

If we’re talking about getting to the BCS Championship, the answer is no, although the absolute purist would argue that IF Notre Dame wins ALL the rest of their games, they could in theory, get there.

Uh…yeah. I guess they COULD, but let’s not hold our breaths for that.

With one loss already, the question is no longer about whether the Fighting Irish will get to the BCS Championship, the priorities fall a bit. Now one had to wonder if they can qualify for a BCS Bowl game.

To do that, Notre Dame has to win perhaps all their games, and their margin for error might ONLY be one more game. With them losing to Michigan already, few see them beating USC later on.

So consider the following schedule and see where Notre Dame can finish. They would have needed a perfect season just to make a shot for the National Championship… that is gone. They might be allowed one…maybe two more losses to still get in a BCS Bowl, and they need 6 wins to qualify for any bowl.

With them falling out of BOTH polls, that hurts them a lot, but because they have a soft schedule, they might be able to climb back in. And with butt kissers like Lou Holtz pushing them, and NBC showcasing them, they have a good shot.

They’ll be playing a Michigan State team that was embarrassed by Central Michigan last week…you better believe they are looking for redemption. But this is a home game for the Irish, so I think you have to favor Notre Dame.

Purdue played well against Oregon, but still lost. They take on ND in another away game for the Irish, if Purdue has improved on any level, I think they could possibly steal a game.

Notre Dame’s next three games are home, with Washington, USC and Boston College. If ND had beaten Michigan handily, I might say that ND could be two of those three…now I can only give them Washington. If it goes this way, the Fighting Irish will be fighting with a possible 3-4 record, or as good as maybe a 5-2.

They’ll play away at Washington State, then home vs. Navy, which could be a split. Another away game at Pittsburgh, home vs. UCONN and ending the season at Stanford could give Notre Dame two wins at the end of the season. But overall, we could be looking at 8-4, maybe 9-3 at best.

Let’s add on here that they were beaten by a team that was 3-9 last year… Michigan is NOT a very good team, and Notre Dame lost to them. If this is the case, then I think some of the people gave Notre Dame more credit than they ought to have. With a 8-4 record, I can’t see how they can get a BCS Bowl game, and 9-3 would be highly questionable, but not out of the question.

If this is true, then Notre Dame’s margin for error is 2 games, having already lost one. Almost everybody sees USC beating Notre Dame, but will they lose another game this year? I think an embarrassed Michigan State team can be a problem, and an away game vs. Purdue can be tough. Add on a good Boston College team, and a Navy team that almost beat Ohio State, this will be a serious challenge for Notre Dame.

It’s going to be very tough to get a BCS bowl bid folks, no matter how much Lou Holtz kisses up to them. We’ll see all soon….

Can Oklahoma and VA Tech still make it to BCS?

Can Oklahoma and Virginia Tech Still Get to BCS?

Quick answer…absolutely…

But a more detailed description is necessary.

Folks, to be very blunt, NO team in ANY BCS power conference is eliminated from the BCS in the FIRST game of the season…NONE.

Folks, even DUKE still has a shot at the BCS after the first week.

There is just too much left in the season, and remind me again how many games these teams play? Last I counted, it was more than one, so there is always a chance.

But after we say the logical, we have to get more specific. Yes, Oklahoma losing to BYU hurts them, and yes Virginia Tech losing to Alabama hurts them, but they are not out of the BCS picture. But if you asked me which team has the better chance of still getting there, my money is on Oklahoma.

As a guy that lives in the middle of ACC territory, I had a raised eyebrow to how Virginia Tech was in the top 10. The ACC didn’t scare too many teams last year so I wondered how they got ranked so high. The Hokies are good, but I wasn’t sure they were top 10 good.

But Oklahoma has a top ranked quarterback, who by the way just won the Heisman, although last night he got injured. I am convinced they would have won if Sam Bradford had been healthy, but it might be likely that he might miss a game or two. And I gotta tell ya, that offensive line looked kinda porous.

But if I had to give you a percentage of the chances of either getting to the BCS Championship, I’d say 75% chance for Oklahoma, and maybe 40% for Virginia Tech. The reason why they have a chance at all is because they are in power conferences, and will be playing other quality opponents. Teams like Boise State have already played their one big game…the power conferences play MANY big games.

Add on to this that both Hokies and Sooners have a conference in which there is a championship game…meaning if they make it there, they will likely play one more ranked opponent. It would be a strong shot in the arm for either to win and make a case for the BCS Championship.

But we know that for that to happen, many teams must lose. Now we know there won’t be 25 undefeated teams in the nation, but for either team to make a case, all they need is for one or no teams to go undefeated. IF that happens, then you have to look at the schedule of both teams, to see IF they can run the tables and get back in the picture.

Let’s look at both teams and see, starting with the Oklahoma Sooners:

Their next couple of games include Idaho State and Tulsa…if Sam Bradford is injured (and he is) then maybe the next couple of weeks will give him time to rehab, as Oklahoma would clearly be favored over the next two games. They then travel to Miami to play the Hurricanes before starting the conference schedule, which starts out with Baylor, but has Texas immediately after that, then Kansas, Kansas State and Nebraska before finishing the last three against Texas A&M, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State.

Folks… that is a tough schedule. IF Oklahoma can run the tables, and I understand it is a BIG if, then they would play in the Big 12 Championship. Should they win that, they would have every right to claim a stake in the BCS Championship IF, there are less than two undefeated power teams in the nation.

A lot of things has to happen but by no means are the Sooners out after the first game of the season.

But it gets a little more complicated for the Virginia Tech Hokies:

After losing to Alabama, the Hokies play Marshall, the travel to Nebraska before starting their conference season against Miami. They then play Duke, Boston College and Georgia Tech by mid season. After the next game against UNC, they play ECU (who beat them last year) before closing the season against Maryland, NC State and Virginia. If they best the conference, then they will be in the ACC Championship game.

But of the two teams, who has the tougher schedule? It would seem that Oklahoma would, and if so, then their wins would be more impressive than those of VA Tech. Now this applies IF both teams run the tables. If both teams end the season with only 1 loss, which would look more impressive to the voters?

Mind you, many critics spat on the ACC for being a weak conference last year, although I think they were equally balanced almost from top to bottom. Still, this makes it harder for Virginia Tech to make the BCS Championship. Oklahoma may well get a “pardon” from the voters since Sam Bradford was injured, but they will still fall hard from the #3 spot they had.

But remember, this is only week one….there is far, far too much more football to play, so both teams are still in the mix, even at 0-1. We’ll just have to see how it plays out.

Prepare ye the bowls!

Prepare Ye The Bowls!

Season’s Greetings to you guys, as we come upon the final turn of the great college football season we have had. I always enjoy this sport because it brings up so much debate about who is the best, and who isn’t. No doubt that college football brings out the best, and sometimes the worst in the fanatics. It is my hope that we learn to temper those emotions to a minimum as we continue to talk about the sport we love.

With only a handful of regular games left, I have yet to see a bowl that has locked in two teams, but there are many stories of potential bowls that have come and gone. The first one was the Boise State vs. Ball State game, one a lot of people figured could be pretty good.

I didn’t agree.

If you read one of my blogs earlier, I said that I didn’t think these two teams should play against each other, because both were trying to earn the respect of the major conferences. You don’t earn that by playing each other, since you BOTH come from lesser conferences. You earn that by playing somebody from the power conferences.

And besides that, Boise State’s proposition was so one-sided that it was a joke. Boise State wanted Ball State to play in the Humanitarian Bowl….which by the way is the HOME FIELD of Boise State, and dare to call it “neutral”. You gotta be out of your minds!

To me, and no disrespect to Boise State, it just sounded too self serving to try to lure Ball State to their front door, and then beat them on their home turf, then use that excuse to claim that they are just as good as the Big 12, Pac-10, SEC, ACC, Big 10 or SEC. No Boise State, that won’t do it. You have to BEAT those teams, not talk about them.

So that bowl ain’t gonna happen, good for Ball State. They deserve every bit of respect as Boise State, and has every right to find leverage for themselves and their fans.

The Humanitarian Bowl matches up the WAC vs. usually an ACC team, in this case you could see Boise State vs. a mid card ACC team. But I have heard that maybe TCU might get the nod, which would be interesting. If so, this would be a decent game, but it still undermines the idea that Boise State should be trying to do. You need to play a power conference team, not a non-BCS team. And granted, TCU is very good, I still think you would have been better off playing a BCS team. We shall see how this shakes out, could you see maybe UNC if they take an ACC? Not sure, since UNC fans don’t travel that well.

We know that Navy is in the Eaglebank Bowl, or some call the Constitution Bowl, or whatever they are gonna call it. Because they are playing in Washington DC, and supposedly slotted against an ACC team, think Maryland, or maybe Wake Forest. But didn’t they already play Wake Forest? If so, then what about NC State? Hmmmm

The New Orleans Bowl seems to have already slotted Southern Mississippi against somebody from the Sun Belt. Southern Miss may never see the success they USED to have since they fired their former coach, who did nothing but give that team WINNING seasons and a great graduation rate. Shame on you Southern Miss. And playing a Sun Belt team will likely be one of the least watched bowls this year. Good luck on that.

(NOTE: No offense to any Sun Belt teams, in fact I wish you well)

It goes without saying that a bowl in Hawaii will certainly HAVE Hawaii in it as long as they qualify. So we know they will be playing somebody, and likely a team from the PAC 10. This actually is a eye-pleasing bowl, because who DOESN’T want to be in Hawaii? But because this isn’t one of the bigger bowls, we could be looking at a low seed Pac 10 team going there. Possibly California, if not then Arizona. The Pac-10 has almost half of its teams not qualified, so the pickings may be slim. It may be possible that the Hawaii Bowl could take a Big 12, or MWC team.

Rice will take the Houston Bowl, which is convenient for them and Conference USA, as they will likely play a team in the Big 12. This is interesting because since the Big 12 is so top heavy, you would hate to see a potential blow out. I mean, if Oklahoma State or Missouri plays Rice, I can see a 50-10 score real easy. If they take a Big 12 team, and to keep it competitive, the only teams I could see going might be Nebraska or Kansas, but rumor has it that Nebraska is going to play Georgia Tech in the Chick-fil-A bowl, formerly the Peach Bowl. Rice vs. Kansas? Still a potential for a lop-sided game, I wonder if the bowl will consider a Sun Belt team, or a Colorado State out of the Mountain West?

As mentioned, Georgia Tech is going to the Peach Bowl…and while I am at it, it sucks when businesses change the name of a bowl to fit their own selfish promotions… but that is business.

Georgia Tech plays in this bowl, and it is possible they could play a SEC team. If so, then one might consider an LSU, Mississippi or South Carolina team, but there is talk that maybe Nebraska has accepted the bid. That would actually be a nice matchup, one I would be willing to watch. Odd because bowls try to pick based on locale and potential of tickets to be sold, so Nebraska must have promised to sell a lot of tickets for the event.

There is a lot of juggling that may happen in the next few days, because bowls have conferences in mind, and some of them may not be able to fulfill it. For example, the SEC is almost guaranteed a spot in the National Title, as well as another BCS Bowl. That’s two teams right there. But if I am correct, the SEC also has ties to the Capital One Bowl, Outback Bowl, Chick-Fil-A Bowl, The Music City Bowl, The PapaJohns Bowl, and The Independence Bowl. That means a possible 8 spots for the SEC. I am not sure if the lesser bowls are willing to take a 6-6 team like Vanderbilt or Kentucky unless a bowl like the Music City, which is in Tennessee, takes a team like Kentucky or Vanderbilt. We will see.

The Mountain West could have as many as 5 spots, since Utah is going to be in the BCS, while TCU, BYU and Air Force are certainly assured a good bowl. Yet we have heard that TCU could take the bowl against Boise State, which would leave a gap for the MWC. Only 5 teams in this conference qualified for a bowl, so if TCU takes the Humanitarian Bowl, then that would leave an at large spot available.

The Big 10 has 7 teams eligible, but we know Penn State is going to the Rose Bowl, and there is talk that maybe Ohio State could be a second team in a BCS (not quite sure how, unless they are bringing lots of fans). But there are enough slots for the Big 10 to fill, from the Motor City Bowl, which matches up a Big 10 against a MAC, on up to the bigger bowls such as the Rose. The appealing thing about the Big 10 is that most bowls are played in warmer climates, like Florida, New Orleans, Atlanta and California. The Big 10 would be welcome to come out of the cold and into the warmer confines. For that reason I might imagine the Motor City Bowl being the least desired of the conference, but not ignored.

There is so much more to consider, but we must wait one more weekend…who will go where, who will be left out? We will all know these things soon.

Should undefeated teams go to BCS Bowls?

Do Undefeated teams deserve BCS?

Last night I was watching Ball State as they won their game, and also going perfect for the year. Because it was on ESPN, there was a lot of talk about whether non-BCS teams deserve to play in the National Championship, or even in the BCS.

There were a lot of people who felt that Ball State, currently 12-0, should have a shot a the BCS National Championship, or at least a BCS Bowl. Others feel that they don’t deserve a shot because they have not proven that they are worthy of such an honor.

One argument centers around the idea of rewarding teams with a perfect season. Where do we stand on it, especially with four undefeated teams left in the nation, as of this moment. Nobody will argue that IF Alabama goes undefeated, they clearly deserve a place in the National Championship, right?

RIGHT???

Come on folks, you don’t have to be an Alabama fan to understand that if a team in a power conference such as the SEC goes undefeated, they are in as one of the best teams in the nation. So there is no argument about that as of now. Don’t give me any cheap talk about “but what if Florida beats them”. We are talking about this very second, not what MIGHT happen.

Right now there are four undefeated teams, and nobody will argue Alabama’s record. But we do have problems with Utah, Boise State and Ball State. Many people want their team, who is currently undefeated, to play in the national championship. See that’s the problem with the “interactive” days on ESPN, most of those people who open their mouths are ONLY speaking out of extreme prejudice.

Ball State fans are obviously going to cry foul and even get mixed up in thinking that their team OUGHT to be one of the 2, or even 4 best teams in the nation. Now don’t get me mixed up here, I came from a small school too, in the Southern Conference, but a real sports fan has to understand if there is a legit argument.

So let’s address that. Do undefeated teams deserve to play in a BCS or National Championship. I can answer that right away with this answer…

NO.

Why? Because if you automatically award teams with a perfect record, you will then encourage teams to pervert the system for themselves. Teams will stop scheduling tougher records and go for softer ones, just to claim the “perfect” record. Let’s understand this folks, being perfect does not always mean being elite.

I say again, being perfect does NOT always mean being elite.

To me, there is an honorable way of winning, and having a perfect season, and then there are perversions to fool people. If having a perfect record was an automatic invite to the BCS or National Championship, then if I am an AD in a Division I school, I would schedule the softest record I can come up with. Imagine if somebody scheduled Washington, North Texas, Idaho, New Mexico State, Utah State, Washington State, and Eastern Michigan and going 7-0. Sure, the strength of schedule would truly suck, but there would still be people whining about “why can our team be in the BCS, we’re perfect so far?”

Awarding teams that way only leads to perversion, because athletic directors will find a way to “cheat the system” just to have a better record. So no, I do not believe an undefeated team should have an automatic invitation to the BCS Championship or BCS Bowl.

But let’s examine those four teams and argue each one. The easiest is the first…Alabama. They come out of the SEC, arguably the best or second best conference in the nation. Now, I will argue their strength of schedule because Clemson has fallen apart, LSU has fallen out of the top 25 and Georgia has been slipping, but I will not argue the strength of the SEC. So I have no arguments that Alabama is the best team in the nation…at this moment in time.

But then from there you drop down to #6 Utah. Now here, there is no question that Utah will be in a BCS bowl, but do they deserve to be in the National Championship? Utah defeats a team from the Big 10 (Michigan), defeats Air Force and ranked teams TCU and BYU, as well as Oregon State who is also currently ranked and headed for the Rose Bowl.. Utah clearly deserves a BCS Bowl, but a National Championship?

This one is hard, but if I had to argue against it, it goes back to the strength of the conference. Personally, I think if there had to be one more power conference this year, it must be the MWC. But we also know that Utah had some cupcakes in 2-10 San Diego State, 4-8 Wyoming and 4-8 New Mexico. The top 3 or 4 teams in the MWC are good, but after that, it’s not that impressive. And playing Weber State does not help either. I won’t argue Utah State, because you gotta keep your state rivals, but overall, this hurts Utah. It’s pretty clear, if you want to be in a serious chase for a National Championship, then PLAY serious contenders. But I say that with the greatest respect for Utah, I really like them.

Next is Boise State, a team that gave college fans one of the best games in recent memory, and one Oklahoma wants to forget. The problem is Boise State is currently #9 on the BCS polls, and will likely get knocked off the list because the BCS has to satisfy all the power conferences.

Now, does Boise State deserve a chance at a National Championship or a BCS Bowl? Remember, this team is undefeated and fans have been arguing that they deserve a shot… but does their schedule show this?

Remember folks, I strongly believe that just because you are perfect does NOT make you an automatic to a National Championship. Perfection can be perverted just like stats to say what YOU want, not what truly is. Of the four teams, Alabama is the only one out of a major conference, one NOBODY will argue on its strength. Utah is from a lesser conference, but NOBODY better argue that this team knocked off 3 ranked foes, and a pretty decent Air Force team.

But where does Boise State fit in? What is their resume? How many teams has Boise State defeated this year that were/are ranked? I think Oregon is the only one, and I will credit them with that game because it was away. But who else?

Idaho State? They are 1-11!

Bowling Green? They are 5-6!

Louisiana Tech? They are the second best team in the WAC at 7-4.

Southern Miss? They are 5-6!

Hawaii? They are 6-5.

San Jose State? 6-6, even though ESPN tried to bill that game up as something big.

New Mexico State? 3-8

Utah State? Even worse at 2-9!

Idaho? 2-10!

And Nevada? 6-5.

Most of Boise State’s teams are UNDER .500, and the conference is clearly not in league with the power conferences. This is where some people get a little drunk and think that Boise State could run the tables in the ACC or Big East… not likely folks. Don’t fool yourselves to think that the Idahos and New Mexicos are the same as Syracuse, NC State or teams at the bottom of POWER conferences.

And this is clearly shown in the BCS polls. Utah is #6 and Boise State is #9 because their conference is weak. Yes they are perfect, but beating lesser foes and becoming perfect does not make you elite. Do I believe Boise State deserves a shot at the BCS Title…absolutely not. Now, do I think they deserve a BCS Bowl?

That is different, because I think maybe they do. But the current system and the way it is set up won’t allow that. This is because the bowls have contractual obligations to those conferences, and something a lot of readers never think about…these bowls are also made in relation to distance.

A bowl in Florida is NOT going to court a team on the west coast unless it is absolutely sure that that university can make the trip and PAY those tickets. I don’t care what you think about the BCS, it is still about money, and each bowl committee has an obligation to make a profit, not put who YOU want in a bowl. So the problem with Boise State is that any bowl is going to want to ensure that the university can sell the tickets so they can make a profit. Can Boise State go to the Orange Bowl, can they sell enough tickets to make it worth while? That we do not know. I do believe that there should be some consideration for Boise State in a BCS bowl, but I also think that there is a way to solve this.

The NCAA added a fifth bowl just for the chance of a non-BCS team making the top 10, why not add one more? Throw in something like the Cotton Bowl, or some other mid-major bowl, creating two more slots. This way, you make more room 12 slots, and giving one or even two undefeated teams a chance to participate in the BCS bowls.

Now, we come to the last team, Ball State. Ball State is ranked pretty low on the BCS, at #15, even with a win last night and a possible win in the MAC Championship. Lots of people whined about them being able to have a chance in the BCS Bowl or the BCS Championship.

Easy question first, NO Ball State does NOT deserve a National Championship. Even though Boise State defeated a ranked team…ONE ranked team, it is one MORE than Ball State.

Ball State has defeated NO teams that are ranked or have been ranked, in the course of the season. NONE. How then can such a team dare to argue about contention for a National Championship? I truly hope that Ball State fans are not missing the point here, because I cheer for the underdog too, and there is great credit to what Ball State has done. But can you HONESTLY say that your record is equal to that of teams that has played tougher competition?

Ok, let’s look at who Ball State played this year: Northeastern, not to be confused with Northwestern. The first win for Ball State is a team currently 2-10. Second is Navy, which is probably the best team on their schedule, even at 7-4.

Akron is currently 5-6, Kent State is 3-8, just like Toledo, and Western Kentucky is 2-9. Yes, Ball State defeated Indiana, from a power conference, but this is the worst team in the Big 10 at 2-9. So tell me again why this perfect record deserves a shot at the National Title, when only 1 team thus far has a winning record?

Continuing, Eastern Michigan is currently 2-9, Northern Illinois is 6-6 and Miami (OH) is 2-9. The record of Ball State’s opponents is what, 31-70? Is THIS worthy of a reward of a National Title? How can you reward such a lofty goal when the road was so easy?

Now, we come to the last two games, Central Michigan and Western Michigan. Now, these two teams are 8-3 and 9-3, but if you check the schedule, neither of these teams beat anybody worthy of mentioning either. In fact, both Central and Western Michigan are examples of soft schedules, and even though the record LOOKS good, they were never ranked. Ball State gets ranked ONLY because they are undefeated, not because they had a tough schedule.

So we have to be honest, does Ball State deserve a National Championship, no. Do they deserve a BCS Bowl? That is hard, because if you reward them for a perfect record in a very soft conference, you then must wonder if they are better than an average team in the power conferences. Do you think a Ball State can beat Virginia, or South Florida, Arkansas, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Michigan State, or Arizona?

DO you?

I think as much as people would like to see Ball State vs. Boise State, I think the matchup should be against one of those teams. Sure, you’d like to see two perfect teams play each other, but what do you gain from it? If you want to make your case for next year, why not play somebody THIS year?

If Boise State cannot get in a BCS bowl, try to get a power conference team in a bowl. If Ball State cannot get in a BCS bowl, try to get a power conference team in a bowl. If you win, you set the stage for next year for serious consideration. We know Boise State beat a legit team, but it was only one legit team. Ball State has not done that, so use this year to earn respect, rather than trying to beg for it.

Until there is a playoff system, which ain’t gonna happen anytime soon with ESPN buying the rights to the bowls, lesser conference teams must earn respect by beating teams, not by having soft schedules and whining about why they are not listed amongst the best.

So….do undefeated teams DESERVE to be in the BCS. No. You earn respect by beating quality teams. If they are not on your schedule, PUT them on the schedule. Alabama deserves it because they survive a SEC conference, Utah ought to be considered because they are out of a tough conference this year and has defeated good teams. Boise State just can’t be considered for a National Championship because their schedule is too weak, but a BCS bowl might be ok. And Ball State… not a chance at a BCS Title, and sadly, not one for the BCS Bowl. Schedule some better teams and earn more respect, and then you force the NCAA to consider you.

How many bowl seats left for college football?

Last seats for a bowl game

As of Thursday, November 20th, 2008, I counted 61 teams in the Division I, or FBS, that are now eligible for a bowl. I also count 34 different bowls, meaning there is room for 68 teams to enjoy a post season game. If I do the math, that means at this very moment, there is room for 7 more teams to qualify for a bowl, out of the almost 120 teams in the FBS.

That means there is seven more seats on this train to post seasonville, who wants a ticket?

Before we talk about who can get it, let’s first clear out who ain’t getting it. There are about 32 teams that no longer qualify for a bowl, meaning that there are about 26 teams left out there to fight for those precious 7 spots.

Hmmm, interesting. That means in most cases the record of the teams that have yet to qualify, but also are not DISqualified would be somewhere along the lines of 4-6, 5-5 or 6-4. Let’s take a look at some of these teams by conference and see what their chances are to make a bowl…if at all.

ACC: I made a blog awhile back on how this was the only conference that has the possibility of putting EVERY team in post season, or at least having a .500 or better record. That is still very true, as 4 teams are still in the hunt. NC State saved themselves with a big win, but with games vs. ranked UNC and ranked Miami, all it takes is one loss to end the season. Both Clemson and Virginia are 5-5, and this weekend’s game is huge because the winner qualifies for a bowl, IF the Citadel and South Carolina State games count for Clemson. If not, the Tigers must win their last two games against Virginia and South Carolina, or they are out. Virginia needs one more win, if the Richmond game counts, to make it to post season, and they can get it from either Clemson or VA Tech.

And then there is Duke, who needs to win their last two to qualify, but beating either UNC or VA Tech is not good news, and it looks like their time is coming to an end. I think one more team, likely Virginia, can become bowl eligible here.

Big 12: Only Colorado sits in limbo, trying to make it to a post season bowl. At 5-6, they need one more win to qualify…unfortunately it is against Nebraska. Granted that is not like the end of their season, but this is a game they must have. Can Colorado win this game and qualify? They are 0-4 on away games….that might be your answer.

Big East: Rutgers and Louisville have yet to qualify, and both teams are 5-5, meaning they have a pretty good chance to make it in the post season. With Rutgers having a 4-2 record in the conference, the chances seem greater for them than with 1-4 Louisville. But for either team, one more win is what they need. With Rutgers riding a 4-game winning streak, and playing Army, this ought to be the win they need. If not, it would come down to them and Louisville in their final game. For Louisville, they face two tough opponents in West Virginia and Rutgers. I can’t see how they can beat BOTH, but it is possible for them to beat one of them. It is quite likely they can qualify, along with Rutgers.

Big 10: Illinois is the lone remaining team that still has to fight to qualify for a bowl, at 5-6. With their biggest win of the year over hapless Michigan, and many embarrassing losses, it will be hard to see if Illinois can defeat Northwestern, who is having a pretty good year. Winning only one game away, this might be an uphill battle for them, and it is possible they may not qualify for a bowl.

A pause to note that we have identified 8 teams thus far, and of those, I think one more will qualify out of the ACC, and likely two from the Big East. I just don’t think the Big 12 or Big 10 will put any more in the post season. If that is true, then we have 3 seats filled, making a total of 64 teams…four seats remain.

Conference USA: This conference actually has four teams trying to make the post season. Yet here is a problem, with four teams already qualified, how deep can this conference really go in the bowls? For example, the ACC had 9 slots promised to them, but can Conference USA be so favored? Marshall is the most desperate team, at 4-6 they cannot afford another loss. But with games vs. the two best teams in the West Division, those being Rice and Tulsa, you can pretty much mark them out of post season.

That leaves Southern Miss, at 5-6, who MUST win their last game against SMU…well, that seems like a gimmie. Let’s assume Southern Mississippi wins, that still leaves Memphis and UTEP, both at 5-5. Memphis draws Central Florida, which isn’t a bad team, and finally Tulane, which should not be too much of a problem. I see Memphis splitting the two, but still qualifying. UTEP has Houston and ECU, both teams with a winning record. I think Memphis has a better chance of making it to a bowl than UTEP, if I had to choose one or the other, I’d have to take Memphis. So I think two more teams out of Conference USA can qualify.

Mid-American Conference: Two teams from this conference still have time to qualify: Bowling Green and Akron, both at 5-5. I think even if one or both qualify, they still may not go bowling if there is an abundance of FBS teams. But let’s see if they CAN qualify. Bowling Green has Buffalo and Toledo, the mix of a strong team and a weak team. If you can split it down the middle, then we can all agree that Bowling Green can get in the post season. Akron has it easier, playing Ohio and Temple, and could beat both.

But this plot goes a bit deeper. Both Bowling Green and Akron are fighting for the MAC Championship, and could get an extra game in the conference championship game. Akron would need a lot of help since they are in third, and have lost to the two ahead of them. Bowling Green needs to beat Buffalo, so that will be a huge game. But of these two teams, I can see both Akron and Bowling Green winning enough to qualify for a bowl.

Now, another pause, as we have now identified 14 teams, and of that I think four more teams can qualify, two from the MAC and two from CUSA. Technically that means all the seats are filled, but that isn’t very true. Just because we have the seats filled does not mean these teams will take those seats. There is still more to be decided.

Pac-10: Stanford, UCLA and Arizona State still vie to make it to the post season. Of these teams, UCLA and Arizona State are in trouble, needing 2 wins. And ironically enough, UCLA and Arizona State play this weekend, with the loser being knocked out. Both teams are 4-6 and cannot afford another loss, but one will get one. And IF Arizona State wins, they must play Arizona and win to qualify. IF UCLA wins, they must play USC…and we KNOW that won’t be good. It is quite possible that neither of these teams will qualify. But what of Stanford? With one game left, they face California to determine if they can go to a bowl or not. This will be a very tough game to call, and we’d like to think that maybe they can give Cal a run for their money, but I think it will be a stretch for Stanford to qualify. I didn’t say it was impossible, I said it would be a stretch. So I can’t see any of these teams qualifying for a bowl.

SEC: Arkansas and Auburn are in the last legs of their journey, trying to buy time for an extra game after the regular season is over. For both teams, a loss ends the season. For Arkansas, a 4-6 record means they MUST win out, meaning wins over Mississippi State and LSU…maybe they can win one, but not both. Auburn is 5-6 and must win just to qualify, but have only one game left….unfortunately, that last game is against Alabama, the number one team in the nation. Everything hangs on this huge game…I won’t doubt that Auburn CAN beat them, but I am not sure if they can.

Sun Belt: This little-known conference has FIVE teams that can still qualify for a bowl…but who are we kidding? They might put 3 in at best. Middle Tennessee State must win their last two games to qualify, one against lowly North Texas. While that should be an easy win, they must also play LA-Lafayette. It would be hard to expect them to win two, so I might rule them out. But the way the Sun Belt goes, it is almost even for the top 5 or 6 teams, so who can really tell?

Arkansas State actually has 3 games left, so must win 2 of three. With one being against North Texas, and one being against the top team in the Sun Belt (Troy), you can split the difference. The game vs. Florida Atlantic will be the deciding factor, and again, this is hard to call. Speaking of Florida Atlantic, they are 5-5 with two games remaining, those being Florida International and Arkansas State. Again, with a conference so tight, you might just play it safe and split it down the middle. That means we can have 3 more teams from the Sun Belt qualifying for a bowl.

Florida International is another of those 4-5 teams that must face LA-Monroe, Florida Atlantic and Western Kentucky, needing to win 2 of those three games. It could come down to the WKU game, a 2-9 team that might just help Florida International to become bowl eligible. That leaves LA-Lafayette, with a 5-5 record, needing one win out of two remaining games. They have Troy and Middle Tennessee State, so again, we might be looking at a split. If so, the Sun Belt could possibly provide SIX teams, but we know they won’t all get in, so it might be about who has the BEST record outside of the Sun Belt Champion.

MWC: Colorado State and UNLV are left with a single game to win to qualify for a bowl, both are 5-6 and need that win like Scooby Doo needs a Scooby snack. Colorado State has a good chance because they play Wyoming who is currently 4-7, while UNLV must face San Diego State, which is even worse at 1-10. You can pretty much put two more teams into post season eligibility. And when you consider that this conference has tough teams like Air Force, Utah, BYU and TCU, this could make Colorado State and UNLV attractive to some low-level bowl.

WAC: And finally there is Hawaii, amazing how much a year changes things. With three games left, and with a 5-5 record, they need to win at least six games to qualify. With games vs. Idaho, Washington State and Cincinnati, all at home, they can easily qualify with two wins. I think they will get that, but it is a FAR cry from one year ago, when they shocked the nation.

So, that brings us to 27 teams I have identified that can become bowl eligible. We know they won’t all qualify, and as we said at the top there is only about 7 spots available. I believe of those 27, I can see about 12 teams qualifying, but several coming from the Sun Belt. This means that the bowls will have all the teams they need to fill all those bowls, and will probably be enticed to add yet ANOTHER new bowl next year. As I see it, there may be 6 to 8 teams that may qualify, but not play.

We’ll see how this all plays out.

5 BCS Bowls

The Nature of Sports Blogging

I started sports blogging a couple of months ago, and I currently blog on three different sites; Blogspot is my main home for blogging, and I also have Blogster and Wordpress. In the last two months I have written about 100 blogs, mostly on college football, and on the NFL. I have also written some blogs on wrestling, something I am interested in as well.

But I wanted to take a moment to just reflect on the nature of blogging, or in this case, sports blogging? Why do I do it…why do WE do it? For some, it’s just a way to voice an opinion to the world, or whomever will read it. For others, there is money involved, as some sports bloggers are hired to write for newspapers or different sites and such.

To me, I enjoy the idea of debate, and sports is the safest way to do that. Now some of you may not agree, because often times sports fanatics are the most brainless people in the world, but in the most extreme, the world of sports is just a part of humanity.

For those who read my blogs, I truly thank you, because it means I am not just talking to the wall. We all have things we think are important, and often times we disagree, but I hope that we can get to a point where IF we disagree, then we can at least do it with some respect.

I don’t say that as a perfect person, because I am at fault when my emotions take over. For example, some readers out there are fans of Notre Dame… you know where I stand on that if you have read my blogs. But even though I am not a Notre Dame fan, that does not mean that every Notre Dame fan is worthless in my eyes. If I get to that point in my life where I place my faults of a team on their fans, then I am less than an honorable man.

Heck, I am an Oakland Raiders fan, but I know we stink. I know Mr. Monty Burns is running things with an iron talon, and unless he changes, there is little to root for, but it is still my team. Good or bad, I have to still have a place for them. So I understand how others may feel about their favorite team, even when things are not going to great. One of the better examples I can share is with Green Bay, and their Packers.

I personally felt that the organization screwed Brett Farve by running him out, and making sure he would never set foot on Lambeau Field as a player ever again… dirty rotten scoundrels. But as angry as I was against the organization, there was no way I could say that about the fans, because that was their team. Good or bad, it was still their team, and they had to root for the Packers. As much as I would like to smile at their 5-5 record while the Jets are 7-3, that would only be prideful, because I understand that the Packer Nation stands by their team, which is greatly honorable.

But that’s the nature of sports, to support YOUR team as best you can, even when things are not going so well. No different with sports blogging either. When I talk about sports, I know that anything negative said might be taken out of context by a fan of that same team. If I said something negative about Alabama, somebody might take it the wrong way. If I said something negative about Duke Basketball, somebody might take it the wrong way. If I said something negative about the Lakers, somebody might take it the wrong way. But I also understand that this is the life of a sports blogger.

When I blog, I try to be as fair and respectful of teams as I can, but I am not so pure in thought that I can’t get upset about certain things in sports. I don’t like the way Notre Dame ditched their former coach, and paid their current coach for a less than impressive career. I don’t like the way Nebraska ran out their former coach because they expected to win National Championships every year. I don’t appreciate how Southern Mississippi kicked out their coach who only won bowl games and graduated players, because they felt it was time for a mid-card team to rise to national prominence.

I don’t like how Kentucky Basketball kicked out their coach who led them to a National Title, heck, there are a LOT of things I don’t like, and sometimes I get more emotional about that when I blog. But most times I try to keep a fair temper about me, understanding that the teams I may not like have strong supporters because those people live in that area, or went to school there, or have some strong tie with that team.

Sports blogging by a lot of folks is just a platform to claim why their team is better than anybody elses…that isn’t what I am here to do. I have loved sports for a long time, and truly enjoy the debates of what sports bring. I love talking about the BCS because it proves that no matter how you do it, it will never be perfect…simply because man isn’t perfect. I love talking about the NFL’s greatest running backs, because even though I have my thoughts, there are only my opinions. I love talking about wrestling because not everybody likes wrestling, but some do.

Sports blogging is my way of asking you to let me in your head, and debate some things with you. And if you allow me, then I am very grateful. We don’t have to agree on everything, but if we can just agree that we love sports, then I can live with that.

BCS Playoffs, scenario #4

BCS Playoffs, Scenario #4

In light of the idea that our President-Elect says that he would like to see an 8-game playoffs in the BCS, I thought I’d open the portals of the alternate worlds and see how that would shape up.

Now, we know that with ESPN now dropping money on the BCS, they are not likely to do anything for awhile. Ironic, since a lot of their sports broadcasters have been whining for a BCS Playoff…will they have a gag order by Mickey Mouse?

(get it?)

So, I went to the secret parts of my house, and opened my closet to find the portals to the other universes, where there actually ARE playoffs. After getting lost and ending up in Narnia, I found the right portal and looked at how this year’s playoffs would have presented itself. This is what I saw:

In this world where there was a BCS Playoff, it was decided that the top 8 teams would represent the NCAA, and the best teams play the lesser teams. From the current top 25 BCS Standings, this was the initial matchups:

As the current #1 team in the nation, Alabama would face the lowest ranked team, that being #8 Penn State.

As the current #2 team in the nation, Texas Tech would then face the second lowest team, that being #7 Utah.

Texas, being the third ranked team in the BCS, would play the sixth ranked USC Trojans, and the fourth and fifth ranked teams would play against each other, that being Florida and Oklahoma.

The highest ranked winning teams would face the lowest ranked team that advanced, and the other two winners would play each other. In what I could make out, I saw Texas Tech defeat Utah and advancing on to the semi-finals. I also saw Texas defeating USC and Florida in a close one over Oklahoma. I really can’t make out the winner of the Alabama vs. Penn State game, but I think Penn State might have won… not quite sure.

If that is true, then Texas Tech becomes the highest remaining team, and would then play Penn State, while Florida plays Texas. From the cloudy mists I think I make out that Texas Tech was a bit too much for Penn State, although I was rooting for Penn State. And in a very classic match, I can’t see who wins that Florida/Texas game, but I would pay to see it again.

So it looks like Texas Tech plays either Texas in a rematch, or Florida. It will either be another classic Big 12 game, or the end-all of “who’s better”. The Big 12 vs. the SEC in a historic matchup. I wanted to see who won that game, but it started getting a bit too cloudy for me…but I think I saw some orange….

Yet this was not without controversy. Although the top eight teams were involved by BCS standards, other teams were not happy with the result. Boise State, ranked #9, was not happy that they were not involved, even with a perfect record, and even though well out the picture, ranked at #17, Ball State felt that they should have been considered as well.

In addition, other conference were also disappointed. The ACC was upset because even though they had no top 10 teams, they were clearly the most competitive conference in the nation, having 8 teams currently qualified for post season play, and currently NO teams disqualified. No other conference could say that. The Big East argued similar points, although they didn’t have as much credibility as the ACC. Both conferences felt that Utah, Boise State and Ball State would not have been so great if they were in a better conference.

It would appear that more work is needed to fix this problem, as the debate continues about the BCS Playoffs. Maybe if I find another portal I can see how other universes solve this problem….until then, we still have great bowls.

More college football warnings!

Team that must be careful

For many weeks I have tried to warn teams of college football, to warn them of the dangers of the games they face. With now just a couple of weeks left in the regular season, there is so much on the line for so many teams…

Will they hear my cries of warning?

Will Rutgers and South Florida hear me? Or will they continue to believe that last year is THIS year, when there was so much success? Time has not been kind to either of these two teams. Neither of these two teams are the talk of the conference, and to be honest, the Big East has not had much to talk about. But there is still pride on the line, and a chance for a bowl still out there. And there is still an outside chance for Rutgers to still steal the Big East Title, but lots of things have to happen. And what of the great South Florida? Has all the fame and glory gone out the window, like their rankings. I warn both of you teams, your post season is on the line, even if South Florida is 6-3. Lose this game, and we will forget about last year’s success.

There must also be a warning to Michigan, although it won’t mean much. This year marks a dark day, one that will not see you participate in the post season. A 3-7 team is an absolute embarrassment to the Big 10 and your university. But we wonder, have the Wolverines packed it in for the year, or will they fight until the bitter end. Your fans better see the best you got against Northwestern, or else this loss will be most bitter. You were warned.

Who then shall warn Duke and Clemson, in a game that could very well determine if one or the other may see post season play? Do not brag too loud about the fact that the ACC still has a slim chance to put EVERY team in post season, and currently has 8 teams bowl eligible…for you two are NOT amongst them. Duke has lost 4 of the last 5, and their record is exactly that…4-5. Your margin for error is slim, fail this game, and you may very well fail the season. And what of the great Clemson team we were led to believe would dominate the ACC. Yet now, you, like Duke are 4-5 and dangerously close to being knocked out of post season. I warn BOTH of you, a loss here makes it hard for either of you to make a bowl, but there are reportedly NINE bowl games with an ACC name on it…Eight now are qualified. Will you be the ninth?

And who deserves greater warnings than Notre Dame, who must travel to Navy this weekend? What is this rumor I have heard of the rich alumni getting upset at their head coach, whom they just given a 10 YEAR extension? How hypocritical of your “educated” alumni, in kicking out a good coach, hiring his replacement and rewarding him for mediocrity. Now just after giving this coach millions of dollars for an average performance, they are getting upset. Many say that your failures are deserved, but now the team must perform on a much higher level…they must beat Navy.

How then will you meet the challenge, Notre Dame? Your wins were all at home, with the exception of beating lowly Washington away. And every team on your schedule that is at least average has beaten you…Navy seems to be BETTER than average. Your coach has a warning on him, to beat Navy or heads may roll…how then will the great Notre Dame face this challenge. I warn you, your names will go down in history should you lose…you were warned…

Does Florida need to be warned of the coming of their former great head coach as South Carolina visits them? Is it necessary to warn the Gators of the importance of this game, not just because of who coaches against them, but also the fight for the National Title just might land right in their laps.

A National Title seems within reach of Florida, if they can just win the SEC Championship…but is it possible that MAYBE they will look past South Carolina, who are currently ranked at #25? South Carolina needs this win to validate their standings, and create havoc in the BCS, but will anyone give them a shot of knocking off Florida? We DO know that they can be beaten, and by an unranked foe at that…I warn you Florida, look past this game, and it will cost you a shot at the National Title.

And finally, another warning to the ACC, specifically Florida State? What is this I hear of you and all your receivers getting in a fight? What is it, some gang or something? Who is Florida State that these player act as great as a warrior, but struggle to win their own division? Shame on you for acting like petty thugs in a school of higher learning, and I warn you greatly, you may have but great risk on your team this weekend. Boston College comes to see you, and although both of you are bowl eligible, there is still an issue. The Atlantic Division is not sown up by you, with a game with Maryland still in the future. Lose this game to Boston College and you will show us just how undisciplined you are. I warn you Florida State, prove your power and defeat Boston College or we may turn our backs on you and your up-and-down season. And to think…you still must play Florida….

You teams have been warned! Now, let’s watch some FOOTBALL!

BCS and BCS Busters

BCS Busters?

I wanted to make a quick blog about this issue since I hear it so much on television. For the novice to college football, I will back up just a bit to explain what I am talking about:

In Division I-A (now called FBS, or FCW or ECW or WWE or CBS or something) there are several conferences, and currently 4 Independent schools. The “power” conferences are the big six, which consistently have the best teams in the nation. Those conferences are, not in any order, ACC, Big East, Big 10, Big 12, Pac 10 and SEC. From these schools come your national champions (in most cases).

But these are not the only conferences in Division IA, there are a few others. I mentioned there are 4 Independent schools, those being Navy, Army, Western Kentucky and Notre Dame (of which many read my blog on “The Fate of ND”)

But as mentioned, there are other conferences. These conferences include Conference USA, Mid-American Conference, The Mountain West Conference, Sun Belt Conference and the Western Athletic Conference. These conferences are known as the “lesser” power conferences, but I do not say that in any ill will to them.

When the NCAA began putting together the BCS, or Bowl Championship Series, it was designed originally to pit the best teams against each other, but initially it did not include the Rose Bowl. The Bowl and their contracted conferences, (Big 10 and Pac 10) didn’t want change, and was from the onset a problem to the BCS. The idea was to try to pit the #1 and #2 teams in a true Championship, but this was a problem if any team from the Pac 10 or Big 10 finished at the top.

But this was soon fixed and it then included the four major bowls, the Rose Bowl, Orange Bowl, Fiesta Bowl and Sugar Bowl. These bowls now seemed to be in unison that the NCAA could not present the fans of college football with a true National Championship. But the problem was that in doing that, the lesser conferences were left out of the picture.

This was ignored for a few years until teams like Fresno State, Boise State, TCU, Hawaii and others began to put pressure on the NCAA. It forced people to wonder, what if a team like that finished undefeated? Shall the NCAA ignore their success while catering to the “fat cats” of the BCS?

So taking another step, the NCAA created a fifth bowl, thus allowing 10 slots for Division I teams. The purpose for this fifth bowl was to allow room for a non-BCS team to compete in the major bowls instead of leaving them out. Now…having said that, it should be understood that if the NCAA created a fifth bowl FOR the opportunity for a non BCS team to get involved, then it stands to reason that these teams don’t have to “bust” in.

The term “BCS Busters” doesn’t make sense because to “bust” in is to intrude to enter where you were not allowed. To force entry. This is not the situation folks, because the bowl now gives PLACE to such a team that qualifies. If there is a question on this, it is, at this point of the year, WHO will be that team.

“Well why not all the teams that qualify?”

That sounds credible, especially now. If you check the current rankings you will see that currently 7 teams outside the BCS conferences are on the top 25. Of those, we focus more on the top 3, being Utah at #7, Boise State at #10 and Ball State at #14. But if you do the math, you know that with 5 major bowls, there is only room for 10 teams. So how might this play out, and how does this involve the non-BCS schools, or as some call them, “BCS Busters”.

To know how this works, you also must remember that there are certain rules that must be applied first. The first and foremost is that the National Championship game is called the FedEX BCS National Championship Game, which WILL take the #1 and #2 teams. They get the first pick, and if it ended today, we know it would be Alabama and Texas Tech.

But after that, it gets a little different.

You see, many of you assume that the second best bowl will take #3 and #4, in this case being #3 Texas vs. #4 Florida, but that is not quite how it works. There are a lot of sub plots going on that make these selections different, and it does impact the “BCS Busters”.

The order of the bowls this year (which rotate yearly) are: Rose, Orange, Sugar, Fiesta and BCS Championship, in reverse order. The greatest games being last. If the season ended today, the BCS Championship must place Alabama and Texas Tech in this bowl.

After that, certain things apply.

The second biggest game would then be the Fiesta bowl, which has a contractual obligation to the Big 12. This means that normally they would have to take the best Big 12 team, as per their contract with the conference. But this would be different, because this year, Texas Tech, a member of the Big 12, is in the National Championship. That means they are no longer obligated to take a Big 12 team….

But they COULD if they wanted to…and with Texas sitting right there at #3, it is very likely that they would take the Longhorns…but would they take Florida?

You’d think they would…but then there’d be another problem. Just as the Big 12 as a contract with the Fiesta Bowl, the SEC has a contract with the Sugar Bowl. The Sugar bowl has the right to the best SEC team UNLESS they are in the National Championship…and guess what. Alabama is an SEC team. So that then frees up the contractual obligation. On paper, it might seem that the Fiesta Bowl could indeed have the #3 and #4 teams compete.

Now keep in mind that with these 5 bowls, ALL of the power conferences (ACC, Big East, Big 10, Big 12, SEC and Pac-10) MUST be involved. Right now we have two bowls, and four teams, but ironically they both pit the SEC vs. Big 12. So let’s just assume that for a moment and look at the third bowl and see how it plays out and how it involved the BCS Busters.

So the third bowl would then be the Sugar Bowl. As we mentioned, this bowl has an obligation to the SEC, but Alabama is in the National Championship. Normally we’d think that it would then select Florida, but we are not sure if the Fiesta Bowl will select them or not…I assure you, many fans would LOVE to see that matchup. But let’s assume that Florida goes to the Fiesta Bowl. Who then would the Sugar Bowl take?

If you go to the next team on the BCS Rankings, that would be Oklahoma at #5. The Sugar Bowl could have Oklahoma face the next team on the list, that being #6 USC, right?

Wrong.

This creates a problem, maybe two problems. To this point we still have not satisfied the ACC, Big East, Big 10 and Pac 10. Those four teams have to be in the BCS. While the Sugar Bowl could pick Oklahoma, it could not pick USC because the Rose Bowl has contractual obligations to both the Pac-10 AND the Big 10 conferences. And since neither is in the National Championship, they have the rights to both…meaning #6 USC and #8 Penn State.

We’ll get back to that in a sec, but that means the Sugar Bowl must select another team. THIS is where the non-BCS teams come in because Utah is currently ranked #7. This means that it is clearly possible for a non-BCS team to compete in the BCS bowl, that being the Sugar Bowl in New Orleans. Oklahoma vs. Utah…quite possible.

If things go as me mentioned, then the fourth bowl on the list is Orange Bowl, which is contractually obligated to the ACC. This means they must take the best ACC team into their bowl. This is interesting because right now, the best team in the ACC is UNC, way down there at #16. But the Orange Bowl would have to take them, and would also have the option of another team.

Now notice what just happened. IF this plays out like we mentioned, then the BCS bowls would then NOT be guaranteed to the top 10 teams, since UNC is ranked 16. This means that somebody in the top 10 will NOT be going to a major bowl. The Orange Bowl can’t drop UNC because they are obligated to the ACC, so they must now pick one of those top 10 teams. And since the highest ranked team left is #6 USC but we know they must be given to the Rose Bowl. #7 is taken (Utah) and #8 is Penn State, which is likely obligated to the Rose Bowl. This drops us down to #9 Boise State,

But that creates a problem.

Remember folks, the power conferences must all have a representative in the BCS. The ACC has UNC in the Orange Bowl, the SEC has a rep in the BCS Championship and likely the Fiesta Bowl. The Big 10 and Pac-10 will meet in the Rose Bowl. The Big 12 will be in the National Championship and a Fiesta Bowl…that leaves out one conference…

The Big East.

They HAVE to be involved, so they there may be no choice. And according to the BCS rankings, Pittsburgh is ranked #21...but likely the candidate to play UNC in the Orange Bowl…leaving Boise State out of the picture.

And actually they would not be the only team snubbed. The #10 team is currently Georgia, and would be left out of a major bowl. But you also add undefeated Ball State. We know that #17 and #18 are BYU and TCU but with Utah being in, nobody is going to argue. This still makes it difficult for more than one non-BCS team to enter the bowl series, but it does acknowledge that at LEAST one can get in.

So….BCS Busters? Not really. This isn’t about allowing 2 or more non-BCS teams in the major bowls, this is about giving the BEST non-BCS team a chance to play against the best teams in the nation. I am not saying it is a perfect system, but hey, it certainly is better than it was a few years ago, when these same teams had NO chance.

You gotta start somewhere.

BCS Playoffs, scenario #3

BCS Playoffs: Scenario #3

After looking into the portal of the alternate universe and seeing how the NCAA handled the BCS Playoffs in scenario #2, I wanted to check another portal to see if there was another situation. I found one, and wanted to explain that to you.

Remember, this is a scenario of the “what ifs” in college football. In this particular portal, I see that the NCAA has adopted the playoffs as so many people cried for, but I am not sure about where the games are played, which bowls sponsor them and those kinda details, I can only see who is playing.

In the second scenario, the NCAA went with six teams, giving the top two teams a bye while the others fought it out. The higher seed played the #2 team and the lower seeded team remaining played the #1 team. In that scenario, we saw Florida vs. Texas, but this portal is slightly different.

This universe believes that not six, but EIGHT teams should be in the BCS Playoffs. The idea here was that often times the non-BCS teams don’t get to make it in the top 5, which will likely keep them out of the playoffs. To increase the number to eight gives them a fair shot to compete should they make it that far. It would virtually mean an undefeated season, but it is quite possible.

The BCS Playoffs looks like this: the #1 team plays #8, the #2 team plays the #7, while the #3 team plays the #6 and finally the #4 team plays the #5. The highest seeded team remaining plays the lowest seeded team, and the two remaining teams play one another. The final two play in the BCS National Championship.

With those being the qualifiers, this is what I see in this alternate universe….

#1 Alabama draws #8 Penn State in a classic duel and the attempt of the Big 10 to earn some respect for their conference.

#2 Texas Tech takes on #7 Utah in the great matchup to see if indeed this non-BCS team can hang with the likes of the high scoring Big 12.

#3 Texas faces #6 USC as both 1 loss teams try to take a shot for the National Title.

#4 Florida plays #5 Oklahoma as both teams shake off early losses to try to claim the grand title.

From what I think I see in this universe, Texas Tech wins their game, as do Texas, and I think I see Florida defeating Oklahoma in a classic game. The Alabama vs. Penn State game is very cloudy, I can’t really make it out. It’s possible that there MIGHT have been an upset.

If so, then Penn State, as the lowest seeded team, would draw Texas Tech, and Florida and Texas face off. I can’t swear by that Alabama/Penn State game, but I am hearing a lot of talk about “upset” so I will just assume Penn State won.

But if so, I also see that it would be their only win, as Texas Tech defeats them and advances to the National Championship. The Florida vs. Texas game is another classic, as Florida seems to continually show us their greatness, and I just can’t see clearly enough to tell what hue of orange comes out of that game.

So Texas Tech faces the winner of Florida and Texas in what would promise to be a great game. But there is still controversy.

Boise State, ranked #9 and undefeated, is disappointed in how the NCAA has ignored them, when 3 teams out of the same conference made up almost HALF the playoffs. Even the ACC cries foul even though their best team, UNC is ranked #16 by BCS standards.

It would appear that the playoffs didn’t fully solve the matter of who was the BEST team, when undefeated teams are still left out, and the power conferences don’t all have a representative in the games. The Big East does not have a lot to argue, but they are considered a BCS conference.

It would appear that the issue of playoffs is still not resolved in this universe either…

BCS Playoffs, scenario #2

BCS Playoffs: Scenario #2

If you read my blog on scenario #1, then you may understand what I am talking about. If you have not, this is just an idea of how the playoffs COULD work if there was such a thing in the FBS.

Personally for me, it does not matter, a playoff would not solve anything because of the example I am going to give in a sec, and what I mentioned in scenario #1. But let’s suppose that we could look into the portal of an identical universe, one exactly like ours except they did have the BCS Playoffs. What info could that world provide for us?

As mentioned in the first scenario, there was much talk about how many teams would compete. Immediately the idea of 32 and 16 teams were ruled out because it would be foolish to think that any team outside the top 10 has any REAL shot to compete for a National Title…otherwise they would have already BEEN in the top 10.

The idea of an 8 team playoff was strongly debated, but defeated because in the history of the NCAA, no team outside the top 5 were worthy enough to be considered as THE elite of the NCAA. But the argument of the non-BCS teams brought in the idea that it ought to be fair to try to allow at least one in, if they can manage to prove that they are amongst the best. Still, eight teams was too much, meaning the National Champion would have to play 3 extra games.

So the idea was a split, a compromise, for six teams. The BCS playoffs would have six teams, and the #1 and #2 teams would get a bye, saving them from one game. Of the remaining teams, the #3 team would play the #6 team, and the #4 team would play the #5 team. It was also decided that the lowest seed advancing would play the number one team, and the higher seeded team would play the #2.

And so we peek into this universe to see how this plays out:

Because Alabama is the number one team in the nation, and Texas Tech the number two team, both teams sit back and see whom they will play. As the #3 seed, Texas would play #6 USC and #4 Florida would play #5 Oklahoma. As far as I could see it, it appears that the Big 12 would win AND lose, but I am not quite sure which one falls and which one moves on. It looks like Texas defeats USC and Florida knocks off Oklahoma.

If that is true, then Alabama would then play Florida in order to advance to the National Championship, and Texas Tech would then play Texas. There is a lot of confusion here, because lots of fans are crying foul in that the National Championship is made up of only two conferences, and they are playing familiar foes. The lack of a new matchup brings a lot of criticism to the NCAA. Nevertheless, I see Florida vs. Texas in the National Championship, and although I can’t see the winner, I see that it is a very good game.

But the season still has great controversy, as the Big 10 cries foul for being left out of the BCS playoffs. In addition, Utah and Boise State are very disappointed in not being invited to the playoffs, even with perfect records.

Sports writers and media protest the way the NCAA has performed this playoffs, and some want more changes to allow more teams, while some want to make sure that all major conferences get a shot in the playoffs. More turmoil seems to come about even as the NCAA tries to fix this situation….

We’ll have to look at another portal to see how another world tries to solve this BCS problem…although I don’t really see a problem in what we have now. But it’s interesting to see what could play out…until next time…

BCS Bowls and BCS Busters

BCS Busters?

I wanted to make a quick blog about this issue since I hear it so much on television. For the novice to college football, I will back up just a bit to explain what I am talking about:

In Division I-A (now called FBS, or FCW or ECW or WWE or CBS or something) there are several conferences, and currently 4 Independent schools. The “power” conferences are the big six, which consistently have the best teams in the nation. Those conferences are, not in any order, ACC, Big East, Big 10, Big 12, Pac 10 and SEC. From these schools come your national champions (in most cases).

But these are not the only conferences in Division IA, there are a few others. I mentioned there are 4 Independent schools, those being Navy, Army, Western Kentucky and Notre Dame (of which many read my blog on “The Fate of ND”)

But as mentioned, there are other conferences. These conferences include Conference USA, Mid-American Conference, The Mountain West Conference, Sun Belt Conference and the Western Athletic Conference. These conferences are known as the “lesser” power conferences, but I do not say that in any ill will to them.

When the NCAA began putting together the BCS, or Bowl Championship Series, it was designed originally to pit the best teams against each other, but initially it did not include the Rose Bowl. The Bowl and their contracted conferences, (Big 10 and Pac 10) didn’t want change, and was from the onset a problem to the BCS. The idea was to try to pit the #1 and #2 teams in a true Championship, but this was a problem if any team from the Pac 10 or Big 10 finished at the top.

But this was soon fixed and it then included the four major bowls, the Rose Bowl, Orange Bowl, Fiesta Bowl and Sugar Bowl. These bowls now seemed to be in unison that the NCAA could not present the fans of college football with a true National Championship. But the problem was that in doing that, the lesser conferences were left out of the picture.

This was ignored for a few years until teams like Fresno State, Boise State, TCU, Hawaii and others began to put pressure on the NCAA. It forced people to wonder, what if a team like that finished undefeated? Shall the NCAA ignore their success while catering to the “fat cats” of the BCS?

So taking another step, the NCAA created a fifth bowl, thus allowing 10 slots for Division I teams. The purpose for this fifth bowl was to allow room for a non-BCS team to compete in the major bowls instead of leaving them out. Now…having said that, it should be understood that if the NCAA created a fifth bowl FOR the opportunity for a non BCS team to get involved, then it stands to reason that these teams don’t have to “bust” in.

The term “BCS Busters” doesn’t make sense because to “bust” in is to intrude to enter where you were not allowed. To force entry. This is not the situation folks, because the bowl now gives PLACE to such a team that qualifies. If there is a question on this, it is, at this point of the year, WHO will be that team.

“Well why not all the teams that qualify?”

That sounds credible, especially now. If you check the current rankings you will see that currently 7 teams outside the BCS conferences are on the top 25. Of those, we focus more on the top 3, being Utah at #7, Boise State at #10 and Ball State at #14. But if you do the math, you know that with 5 major bowls, there is only room for 10 teams. So how might this play out, and how does this involve the non-BCS schools, or as some call them, “BCS Busters”.

To know how this works, you also must remember that there are certain rules that must be applied first. The first and foremost is that the National Championship game is called the FedEX BCS National Championship Game, which WILL take the #1 and #2 teams. They get the first pick, and if it ended today, we know it would be Alabama and Texas Tech.

But after that, it gets a little different.

You see, many of you assume that the second best bowl will take #3 and #4, in this case being #3 Texas vs. #4 Florida, but that is not quite how it works. There are a lot of sub plots going on that make these selections different, and it does impact the “BCS Busters”.

The order of the bowls this year (which rotate yearly) are: Rose, Orange, Sugar, Fiesta and BCS Championship, in reverse order. The greatest games being last. If the season ended today, the BCS Championship must place Alabama and Texas Tech in this bowl.

After that, certain things apply.

The second biggest game would then be the Fiesta bowl, which has a contractual obligation to the Big 12. This means that normally they would have to take the best Big 12 team, as per their contract with the conference. But this would be different, because this year, Texas Tech, a member of the Big 12, is in the National Championship. That means they are no longer obligated to take a Big 12 team….

But they COULD if they wanted to…and with Texas sitting right there at #3, it is very likely that they would take the Longhorns…but would they take Florida?

You’d think they would…but then there’d be another problem. Just as the Big 12 as a contract with the Fiesta Bowl, the SEC has a contract with the Sugar Bowl. The Sugar bowl has the right to the best SEC team UNLESS they are in the National Championship…and guess what. Alabama is an SEC team. So that then frees up the contractual obligation. On paper, it might seem that the Fiesta Bowl could indeed have the #3 and #4 teams compete.

Now keep in mind that with these 5 bowls, ALL of the power conferences (ACC, Big East, Big 10, Big 12, SEC and Pac-10) MUST be involved. Right now we have two bowls, and four teams, but ironically they both pit the SEC vs. Big 12. So let’s just assume that for a moment and look at the third bowl and see how it plays out and how it involved the BCS Busters.

So the third bowl would then be the Sugar Bowl. As we mentioned, this bowl has an obligation to the SEC, but Alabama is in the National Championship. Normally we’d think that it would then select Florida, but we are not sure if the Fiesta Bowl will select them or not…I assure you, many fans would LOVE to see that matchup. But let’s assume that Florida goes to the Fiesta Bowl. Who then would the Sugar Bowl take?

If you go to the next team on the BCS Rankings, that would be Oklahoma at #5. The Sugar Bowl could have Oklahoma face the next team on the list, that being #6 USC, right?

Wrong.

This creates a problem, maybe two problems. To this point we still have not satisfied the ACC, Big East, Big 10 and Pac 10. Those four teams have to be in the BCS. While the Sugar Bowl could pick Oklahoma, it could not pick USC because the Rose Bowl has contractual obligations to both the Pac-10 AND the Big 10 conferences. And since neither is in the National Championship, they have the rights to both…meaning #6 USC and #8 Penn State.

We’ll get back to that in a sec, but that means the Sugar Bowl must select another team. THIS is where the non-BCS teams come in because Utah is currently ranked #7. This means that it is clearly possible for a non-BCS team to compete in the BCS bowl, that being the Sugar Bowl in New Orleans. Oklahoma vs. Utah…quite possible.

If things go as me mentioned, then the fourth bowl on the list is Orange Bowl, which is contractually obligated to the ACC. This means they must take the best ACC team into their bowl. This is interesting because right now, the best team in the ACC is UNC, way down there at #16. But the Orange Bowl would have to take them, and would also have the option of another team.

Now notice what just happened. IF this plays out like we mentioned, then the BCS bowls would then NOT be guaranteed to the top 10 teams, since UNC is ranked 16. This means that somebody in the top 10 will NOT be going to a major bowl. The Orange Bowl can’t drop UNC because they are obligated to the ACC, so they must now pick one of those top 10 teams. And since the highest ranked team left is #6 USC but we know they must be given to the Rose Bowl. #7 is taken (Utah) and #8 is Penn State, which is likely obligated to the Rose Bowl. This drops us down to #9 Boise State,

But that creates a problem.

Remember folks, the power conferences must all have a representative in the BCS. The ACC has UNC in the Orange Bowl, the SEC has a rep in the BCS Championship and likely the Fiesta Bowl. The Big 10 and Pac-10 will meet in the Rose Bowl. The Big 12 will be in the National Championship and a Fiesta Bowl…that leaves out one conference…

The Big East.

They HAVE to be involved, so they there may be no choice. And according to the BCS rankings, Pittsburgh is ranked #21...but likely the candidate to play UNC in the Orange Bowl…leaving Boise State out of the picture.

And actually they would not be the only team snubbed. The #10 team is currently Georgia, and would be left out of a major bowl. But you also add undefeated Ball State. We know that #17 and #18 are BYU and TCU but with Utah being in, nobody is going to argue. This still makes it difficult for more than one non-BCS team to enter the bowl series, but it does acknowledge that at LEAST one can get in.

So….BCS Busters? Not really. This isn’t about allowing 2 or more non-BCS teams in the major bowls, this is about giving the BEST non-BCS team a chance to play against the best teams in the nation. I am not saying it is a perfect system, but hey, it certainly is better than it was a few years ago, when these same teams had NO chance.

You gotta start somewhere.