The NEW BCS: Florida score
In an attempt to make a case about who the REAL best teams in college football are, I came up with a formula that awards points to teams based on 24 different categories. In a foolish attempt to try this out, I decided to see how the top teams would fare in my formula, and where they might land after the first week of the BCS scores have come out.
We start first with the number one team, Florida, and will give points based on the following, and add (or subtract) at the end.
Factor #1 Wins: You get 20 points for every win you have, because this is one of the most significant factors in college football…you must WIN your games. Nobody cares for a team with 2 or 3 losses, we want to see undefeated teams in the BCS Championship (in theory). Florida is 6-0, so that is 6 X 20, or 120 points thus far.
Factor #2 Home wins: I award 7 points for every home win because it seems to be more important to defend your house than to play on the road. These points are added to the current total. Since Florida has 4 home wins, that makes 7 X 4, or 28 points more.
Factor #3 Road wins: I give 5 points for every road game, making it important, but not as important to home wins. Florida gets 2 X 5, or 10 more points added to their score.
That makes a total so far of 158 points.
Factor #4 Conference wins: It is critical for any team to win their conference games, and Florida has won 4 conference games thus far. I award 7 points per conference win, so 7 X 4= 28 more points.
Factor #5 Non Conference wins: I don’t award as many points for this because a non conference win may be against anybody, so I give only 3 points per win. Florida gets 2 X 3 or 6 more points for this factor.
Factor #6 Non FCS win: Here, you actually LOSE points for playing a team that does not factor into a serious championship. You lose 2 points for every “cupcake” you schedule. Florida actually loses 2 points for playing Charleston Southern.
So far the total is 192, but minus those 2 points, they have 190 points.
Factor #7 Wins over top 5 teams: After wins with 20 points each, this is the second most important factor, awarding 10 points for every team you beat that was in the top five at that time. Because Florida did beat LSU when they were #4, they get an additional 10 points.
Factor #8 Win over a team 6-10: Normally I award 7 points, but Florida gets no points at this point in time, having beaten no team ranked 6-10 yet.
Factor #9 Win over a team 11-15: Normally I award 5 points, but Florida does not yet qualify.
Factor #10 Win over a team 16-25. Normally I award 3 points, but Florida does not yet qualify.
So far Florida has 200 points.
Factor #11 Win over a team +.500: I give 7 points for every team that is CURRENTLY over .500. At this moment there are 2 teams over .500 that Florida has defeated, so they get 7 X 2, or 14 points
Factor #12 Wins over a .500 team. 3 points for beating average teams, and Florida has beaten 3 such teams. This means 3 X 3 or 9 more points.
Factor #13 Wins over a -.500 team. You actually lose 2 points for every sub par team you beat. Because this only includes Charleston Southern, they lose only 2 points.
So that brings Florida to 223, minus 2 points, for a total of 221 points.
Factor #14 Wins by +16: I award points for domination, and if a team can win by more than two possessions, they get one point for every win. Each win counts once in the factor, so if a team won by 40 points, they are put in a higher factor. At this point, Florida has beaten no team by 16 plus for the 1 point bonus. They have won by larger margins, so they will be slotted for more points.
Factor #15 Wins by +24 points: I award 3 points for every win over 24 points. The win over Kentucky qualifies, since it is over 24 points. So Florida gets +3 for that win.
Factor #16 Wins by +36 points: I award 5 points for every win of more than 36 points. Florida has 2 games where they won by such a margin, so they get 5 X 2,or 10 more points.
This brings them to a total so far of 234 points.
Factor #17 Top 5 passing: If a team is in the top 5 in EITHER yards or touchdowns, they get 5 more points, for as much as 10 additional points. At this point, Florida does not qualify for any points.
Factor #18 top 10 passing: If a team is in the top 10 in EITHER yards or touchdowns, they get 3 points for each, for as much as 6 additional points. At this point, Florida does not qualify for any points.
Factor #19 Top 20 passing team: If a team is in the top 20 in EITHER yards or touchdowns, they get one point for each, for as much as 2 additional points. At this point, Florida does not qualify for any points.
Factor #20 Top 5 rushing team: If a team is in the top 5 in EITHER yards or touchdowns, they get 5 points for each, for as much as 10 additional points. At this point, Florida does not qualify for any points.
Factor #21 Top 10 rushing team: Same as top 10 passing. Florida qualifies for 3 points.
Factor #22 Top 20 rushing team: Same as top 20 passing. Florida qualifies for no points.
So far, the score remains at 234 points, plus the 3 points from factor #21 for a total of 237 points.
Factor #23 Defense gives up under 16 a game: I award 2 points for every game where the defense gives up UNDER 16 points. Each game qualifies either under factor #23 or factor #24. Florida has one game where the defense gave up 13 points, so they get an additional 2 points for that game.
Factor #24 Defense gives up under 8 a game: I award 5 points for every game where the defense gives up UNDER 8 points. Each game qualifies either under factor #23 or factor #24. Florida has four games that qualify, having their defense allow under 8 per game, so they get 4 X 5, or 20 points.
The overall total would give Florida 247 points.
If I ran the same formula for Texas, I would get 238 points.
Alabama would have 297 points, but remember, they have 7 games, whereas Florida and Texas have 6.
So where would a team like Boise State fit right now?
They would have 225 points.
So if I used my formula, my top four would be Alabama, Florida, Texas and Boise State…but that is only based on this week, and the fact that Alabama has played one more game than the others. One game can get you as much as 70+ points in a win, so it’s not that Alabama is so far ahead of everybody else. And with other undefeated teams like Cincinnati and Iowa, and good 1-loss teams like USC, this isn’t etched in stone.
But what it does, at least for me, is use many points which make up a great team, not just opinions based on what we like or dislike. I realize it may be a little complicated, but next time I will share more teams and how they might fit in my new BCS formula. And because it changes weekly, this is not going to stay the same by any means.
Tune in and we’ll look at a few other teams and see where they REALLY fit in.
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
Top 10 NFL teams, week 7
NFL Top 10 teams, week 7
So after 6 games for most of the NFL teams, much has been learned. We have now 4 undefeated teams, two with one loss, and nine with 2 losses. My math tells me that makes 15 teams, meaning I have to trim the fat with 5 teams in order to make my top 10 list.
That meant I had to drop 5 teams with 2 losses, and right off the bat I got rid of the NFC West teams, Arizona and San Francisco. To me, this is a very weak division, and any team with 2 losses out of there is not worth of a top 10 ranking. Yeah, I know the Cardinals got to the Superbowl last year, but a lot of that was built off this weak division.
So without further delay, let’s crank up the NFL top 10 teams, starting with one that missed the cut:
Dallas Cowboys: At 3-2, they are certainly in the mix, but nobody is predicting them to right the ship and have the successful season they thought they would have. It would seem that Emmitt Smith was correct in saying that this team may not win more than 7 games. It seems that “America’s Team” is on pace for that, although mathematically they are on pace for 9 wins….not sure if they can get that though.
#10 Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2): The defending Superbowl champs was not on my list last week, and barely makes it this week because they do have a winning record, and I felt they were better than 5 other 2-loss teams. You still have to give this team a chance, and with four wins they still have a little work to do. Beating the Browns does not make for so much of an argument, but they are one of 3 teams at this moment with a 4-2 record.
#9 Chicago Bears (3-2): Last week this team was #8 on my list, and I didn’t drop them far because they lost to the Atlanta Falcons, which is a pretty decent team. I am not fully convinced that this team can make the playoffs, but we will learn much when they play the Vikings. Between the Bears, Vikings and Packers, this could get interesting as a few losses may be traded around.
#8 Cincinnati Bengals (4-2):Well, back down a bit to reality, with a loss to Houston. Yeah, they fell hard from the second best team in the NFL to the 8th, but that still gets them in the playoffs in my book. The Bengals rode that high of winning for awhile, and I think they are not through yet. But losing to a team they should have beaten, if they are who we think they are, can make a cross check on whether this team is indeed an elite team, or a good team.
#7 New England Patriots (4-2): Are we seeing the beginning signs of a team that is about to go in a southern direction? Is the world coming to an end with the Pats losing two games already? Well, the dismemberment they put on Tennessee in the snow shows that this team is not done yet, and is still strongly in the hunt for the AFC Champs. The Patriots are still a heavy favorite, but after losing many key members, the armor is starting to crack…perhaps one reason they went back to get Junior Seau, who is quite ancient in football terms. Still, this is still an elite AFC squad, whether they have 2 losses or none. It just so happens they have two now… and I am sure it won’t be the last loss this year either.
#6 Atlanta Falcons (4-1): There is much to be said for this team, and with only one loss, to the aforementioned Patriots, this is indeed a quality team. And consider they just beat the Bears, so they are surely a good squad. But the Bears was the first quality opponent they have beaten, so they are as good as their record. But when they meet the Saints…and they will, we will learn how good this 4-1 record is. In fact, they have to play twice, so this will be two very tough games between two teams that seem poised to make a strong run in the NFC.
#5 New York Giants (5-1): To me, this is, right now, the best one loss team in the NFL…but that’s not saying much since there are only 2 teams with one loss. The Giants lost to the Saints bad, which was in fact the first REAL team they played this year. I do think that the Giants are more experienced than the Falcons, but the big loss they suffered made them quite touchable. With division games against the Eagles, Cowboys and Redskins, it is now a question if this team really is as good as we think. Time will tell.
#4 Indianapolis Colts (5-0): For me to put them here says that right now, I think the Colts are the weakest undefeated team in the NFL. I gotta tell you, beating the Jags, Dolphins, Cardinals, Seahawks and Titans cannot make you the best team. Of all those teams, only the Cardinals has a legit shot of even making the top 10. Who, if anybody, can challenge the Colts? Or maybe the other question is, how good are the Colts since they have not played anybody yet? Didn’t we think the same of the Giants until they met with a real team? For me to have them here means I think the Colts could be in the AFC Championship game, but I am not totally sold on it just yet….need to see them win against quality opponents.
#3 Minnesota Vikings (6-0): Well, well, where are all those Brett Farve nay-sayers now? I know it is still early, but I am sure right now the Packers are wondering why they let Farve walk away. Now last week’s game was too close, showing me that the Viking defense can be suspect, and I am not sure if they can continue to win games like that. But with a very experienced quarterback, and a great running back, they are as good as any team in the NFL. Yet right now I think they are the third best team, meaning I could not put them in the Superbowl, because I think there is a better NFC team out there…
#2 New Orleans Saints (5-0): I had the Saints as the third best team in the NFL, but the best NFC team, that has not changed. Beating the Giants the way they did clearly proves that this is a very good team, and seems to be on a mission to bring the Superbowl Trophy to New Orleans…the place of my birth. Of all the teams, I think the Saints have, so far, the toughest schedule, and has sliced through it all. They have yet to play the Falcons, so we will see them face each other twice, and they also play the Patriots this year. Can they continue to go undefeated? Who can say, with such a high maintenance offense? If they stay healthy, I see them winning at least 12 games, maybe more.
#1 Denver Broncos (6-0): With the win over the Chargers, this puts the Broncos miles ahead of everybody else in their division…but who are we kidding? Between the Raiders, Chiefs and now the confusing Chargers, the Broncos may have already locked in their bid to the playoffs. But this team has overachieved like few could believe. Beating the Patriots and Cowboys are indeed quality wins, and the Chargers were average as well. It seems to show that sometimes when an organization flips as much as they have, it is hard to prepare for them. This is a new animal that the rest of the NFL has to solve, and until they do, the Broncos will keep winning…I mean come on, you see them losing to the Chiefs or Raiders? They are almost assured of 3 more wins. But with games ahead vs. the Ravens, Steelers, Giants, Colts, Eagles and a second game vs. the Chargers, this could get interesting.
So there you have it, my 10 best teams in the NFL. That would imply that I think the Broncos will play the Saints in the Superbowl…not necessarily. Let us not forget that the Titans had a perfect record for 13 weeks, and then the bottom fell out. Four undefeated teams remain, and I see none of them going perfect… the 1972 Dolphins might as well crack that champagne now. But there is much parity in the NFL, so any team has a shot…well, other than those that are winless now.
Until next week…
So after 6 games for most of the NFL teams, much has been learned. We have now 4 undefeated teams, two with one loss, and nine with 2 losses. My math tells me that makes 15 teams, meaning I have to trim the fat with 5 teams in order to make my top 10 list.
That meant I had to drop 5 teams with 2 losses, and right off the bat I got rid of the NFC West teams, Arizona and San Francisco. To me, this is a very weak division, and any team with 2 losses out of there is not worth of a top 10 ranking. Yeah, I know the Cardinals got to the Superbowl last year, but a lot of that was built off this weak division.
So without further delay, let’s crank up the NFL top 10 teams, starting with one that missed the cut:
Dallas Cowboys: At 3-2, they are certainly in the mix, but nobody is predicting them to right the ship and have the successful season they thought they would have. It would seem that Emmitt Smith was correct in saying that this team may not win more than 7 games. It seems that “America’s Team” is on pace for that, although mathematically they are on pace for 9 wins….not sure if they can get that though.
#10 Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2): The defending Superbowl champs was not on my list last week, and barely makes it this week because they do have a winning record, and I felt they were better than 5 other 2-loss teams. You still have to give this team a chance, and with four wins they still have a little work to do. Beating the Browns does not make for so much of an argument, but they are one of 3 teams at this moment with a 4-2 record.
#9 Chicago Bears (3-2): Last week this team was #8 on my list, and I didn’t drop them far because they lost to the Atlanta Falcons, which is a pretty decent team. I am not fully convinced that this team can make the playoffs, but we will learn much when they play the Vikings. Between the Bears, Vikings and Packers, this could get interesting as a few losses may be traded around.
#8 Cincinnati Bengals (4-2):Well, back down a bit to reality, with a loss to Houston. Yeah, they fell hard from the second best team in the NFL to the 8th, but that still gets them in the playoffs in my book. The Bengals rode that high of winning for awhile, and I think they are not through yet. But losing to a team they should have beaten, if they are who we think they are, can make a cross check on whether this team is indeed an elite team, or a good team.
#7 New England Patriots (4-2): Are we seeing the beginning signs of a team that is about to go in a southern direction? Is the world coming to an end with the Pats losing two games already? Well, the dismemberment they put on Tennessee in the snow shows that this team is not done yet, and is still strongly in the hunt for the AFC Champs. The Patriots are still a heavy favorite, but after losing many key members, the armor is starting to crack…perhaps one reason they went back to get Junior Seau, who is quite ancient in football terms. Still, this is still an elite AFC squad, whether they have 2 losses or none. It just so happens they have two now… and I am sure it won’t be the last loss this year either.
#6 Atlanta Falcons (4-1): There is much to be said for this team, and with only one loss, to the aforementioned Patriots, this is indeed a quality team. And consider they just beat the Bears, so they are surely a good squad. But the Bears was the first quality opponent they have beaten, so they are as good as their record. But when they meet the Saints…and they will, we will learn how good this 4-1 record is. In fact, they have to play twice, so this will be two very tough games between two teams that seem poised to make a strong run in the NFC.
#5 New York Giants (5-1): To me, this is, right now, the best one loss team in the NFL…but that’s not saying much since there are only 2 teams with one loss. The Giants lost to the Saints bad, which was in fact the first REAL team they played this year. I do think that the Giants are more experienced than the Falcons, but the big loss they suffered made them quite touchable. With division games against the Eagles, Cowboys and Redskins, it is now a question if this team really is as good as we think. Time will tell.
#4 Indianapolis Colts (5-0): For me to put them here says that right now, I think the Colts are the weakest undefeated team in the NFL. I gotta tell you, beating the Jags, Dolphins, Cardinals, Seahawks and Titans cannot make you the best team. Of all those teams, only the Cardinals has a legit shot of even making the top 10. Who, if anybody, can challenge the Colts? Or maybe the other question is, how good are the Colts since they have not played anybody yet? Didn’t we think the same of the Giants until they met with a real team? For me to have them here means I think the Colts could be in the AFC Championship game, but I am not totally sold on it just yet….need to see them win against quality opponents.
#3 Minnesota Vikings (6-0): Well, well, where are all those Brett Farve nay-sayers now? I know it is still early, but I am sure right now the Packers are wondering why they let Farve walk away. Now last week’s game was too close, showing me that the Viking defense can be suspect, and I am not sure if they can continue to win games like that. But with a very experienced quarterback, and a great running back, they are as good as any team in the NFL. Yet right now I think they are the third best team, meaning I could not put them in the Superbowl, because I think there is a better NFC team out there…
#2 New Orleans Saints (5-0): I had the Saints as the third best team in the NFL, but the best NFC team, that has not changed. Beating the Giants the way they did clearly proves that this is a very good team, and seems to be on a mission to bring the Superbowl Trophy to New Orleans…the place of my birth. Of all the teams, I think the Saints have, so far, the toughest schedule, and has sliced through it all. They have yet to play the Falcons, so we will see them face each other twice, and they also play the Patriots this year. Can they continue to go undefeated? Who can say, with such a high maintenance offense? If they stay healthy, I see them winning at least 12 games, maybe more.
#1 Denver Broncos (6-0): With the win over the Chargers, this puts the Broncos miles ahead of everybody else in their division…but who are we kidding? Between the Raiders, Chiefs and now the confusing Chargers, the Broncos may have already locked in their bid to the playoffs. But this team has overachieved like few could believe. Beating the Patriots and Cowboys are indeed quality wins, and the Chargers were average as well. It seems to show that sometimes when an organization flips as much as they have, it is hard to prepare for them. This is a new animal that the rest of the NFL has to solve, and until they do, the Broncos will keep winning…I mean come on, you see them losing to the Chiefs or Raiders? They are almost assured of 3 more wins. But with games ahead vs. the Ravens, Steelers, Giants, Colts, Eagles and a second game vs. the Chargers, this could get interesting.
So there you have it, my 10 best teams in the NFL. That would imply that I think the Broncos will play the Saints in the Superbowl…not necessarily. Let us not forget that the Titans had a perfect record for 13 weeks, and then the bottom fell out. Four undefeated teams remain, and I see none of them going perfect… the 1972 Dolphins might as well crack that champagne now. But there is much parity in the NFL, so any team has a shot…well, other than those that are winless now.
Until next week…
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