Monday, October 13, 2008

NFL Best teams, week 6

Top 10 NFL Teams: Week 6

Just finished watching the Cleveland Browns knock off the New York Giants, so now there is only one undefeated team in the NFL. But with so much going on, it is nearly impossible to say who is really number one, let alone the top 10. But let’s give it a shot:

#10 Buffalo Bills 4-1

This was the spot these same Bills had last week, and you’d think I might have moved them up a spot or two…not so. I am still not convinced that this team is even good enough to make the playoffs considering they had a very soft schedule. With a team that has a very soft schedule and losing recently to the Cardinals, the jury is still out on the Bills. I am just not convinced that this team is the elite of the AFC.

#9 Arizona Cardinals 4-2

This team has a history of flopping, as well as providing us with one of the best quotes in football, by former head coach Dennis Green. Still, with wins over the then undefeated Bills, and just recently over the Cowboys, there just might be something to this team. With a high scoring offense and a weak division, dare we say that Arizona is playoff bound?

#8 Carolina Panthers 4-2

I don’t understand how a team with potent weapons in receivers and running backs should be losing, but losses to the Vikings and the Buccaneers raises some questions. They score about 20 points more than they allow, which breaks down to about a field goal difference per game. Close games for a team with such a promising offense could spell trouble.

#7 Denver Broncos 4-2

At the beginning of the year, I thought for sure that this was almost a lock for the postseason, and maybe the AFC Championship. I just don’t get it, this team beats quality teams like Tampa Bay and San Diego, whips up on the sad-sack Raiders, but loses to the Chiefs and the Jaguars. You just don’t know what you’re getting from the Broncos. With games upcoming against the Patriots and the Dolphins, we’re gonna see if this is a contender or a mid card team.

#6 Dallas Cowboys 4-2

In truth, I should put this team even lower not just because of the record, but also of the results of injuries. I cannot say in truth that the Cowboys are the 6th best team in the NFL with their quarterback injured and other players. We also don’t know what off field incidents will bring to the team as well. Losing to the Redskins at home was embarrassing enough, but losing to the Cardinals is a punch in the eye socket. This team is in some trouble and I see another loss or two in the next month. But with everybody in the NFL being hurt in some shape or form, maybe it balances out for the Cowboys.

#5 Washington Redskins 4-2

Just a week or two ago everybody was blowing kisses to the Redskins, calling them the elite team of the league. But the NFL has a way of learning new coaches, and sometimes teams that are mid card are not used to the press they read about themselves. Could it be that the Rams, under a new coach, mixed things up and caught the Skins off guard… or was the Redskins just too cocky? Welcome back to earth guys.

#4 New York Giants 4-1

I’ll be honest, I was not really impressed with their 4-0 record. They catch a new coach on his first regular season game in the Redskins, then proceed to beat three teams that 2-14 combined before losing to a team that was 1-3. I had to rank them high earlier because they were the defending Superbowl Champs and undefeated, but now I don’t have to. As with the Redskins, welcome back to earth.

#3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-2

I have been impressed with this team, and they have played the toughest schedule of the previous teams on this list. While everybody is playing the cupcakes of the NFL, the Buccs were playing MAN games. They lose an emotionally charged game in New Orleans against the Saints, I can live with that. They beat the Falcons who are suddenly looking pretty good, then knock off the Bears and Packers back to back. They lose a close game vs. Denver AT Denver and crush the Panthers. This team is good. Watch out for these cats.

#2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4-1

I almost regret putting the Steelers here but the other teams did poorly so they had to move up. Their strength of schedule is soft and even with that they escaped some games. The Brows, Ravens and Jaguars wins were by one possession so I am just not fully convinced that these guys are the ones to beat. The AFC is really up for grabs this year, and the healthiest team is going to take it…not the BEST team. That could be the Steelers…oh wait, they have injuries too!

#1 Tennessee Titans 5-0

I’d like to put an asterisk here, because I have to put them here ONLY because they are the only undefeated team left, and they were #4 on my list last week. With the Giants, Redskins and Cowboys losing, Tennessee gets the #1 spot only by default. Wins over the Jaguars (3-3) and the Vikings (3-3) are decent, but beating the 0-6 Bengals and the 1-4 Texans isn’t saying much. The win over the 2-3 Ravens is quality but we all know the Ravens don’t believe in scoring. Overall this is a decent record…well, who are we kidding, it is a great record. Any team will take a 5-0 start. But it is misleading that they are seen as the best team in the NFL. And with the Chiefs coming up next, they could look like a Superbowl contender. But after that Kansas City game, we’re gonna REALLY see what the Titans are really about. Four very interesting games will show us if, as a coach once said, you are what we THOUGHT you were!

So that’s my top 10. I actually wanted to put the Colts on the list, but if I had a top 11, they would be there. I also had to pinch off the Patriots, and that loss clearly shows that the AFC is up for grabs. Heck, the NFC is too. I guess my early thoughts for the Patriots vs. the Cowboys is over rated. But there are 10 weeks left to go, anything can happen. Let’s keep watching and see…

Alabama Football and the BCS

Alabama Football and the BCS

There’s a lot of whining going on about whether Alabama should have been the #1 team in the nation after a bye week, and Texas jumping over them to take the #1 spot. I watched “Around the Horn” and “Pardon The Interruption” (two of my favorite shows) and listened to the opinions. It amazed me at how there seemed to be two sides.

Folks…what does it matter? Whether you are #1 or #2, if the season ended today, you are still in. Stop whining!

But now the questions become a little more interesting. CAN Alabama actually go undefeated? That’s a hard question, so let’s take a moment to look at that.

Alabama started out the season defeating #9 ranked Clemson, who has since then taken a nosedive and may not even make it to a bowl. You’d have to question the strength of Alabama but you cannot fault them for beating a team that wasn’t as good as all the hype.

Ok, so they’re 1-0 and looking impressive, although now you’d have to wonder about whether they beat a good team, or a team that was bogus to the top 25.

Game two against Tulane, a team that had a losing record last year, and apparently will continue that trend this year. Beating a current 2-4 team by 14 points AT home isn’t really as impressive as you’d like, but again, you cannot blame the team for beating the teams on their schedule. So now Alabama is 2-0.

Another home game vs. Western Kentucky and a big win 41-7 and now Alabama is looking decent at 3-0. But Western Kentucky is 2-5, and you really have to wonder if Alabama is good, or taking advantage of a soft schedule.

This sounds like I am picking at Alabama, but we’re talking about NATIONAL Champions here, so we have to determine if this team really is ready for that spotlight. I mean, at this moment, let’s call it what it is…Alabama has been fortunate to win these games while the other teams have been losing big time games. Are we looking at a legitimate team, or just one holding the #2 spot for awhile?

Alabama goes on the road and defeats Arkansas 49-14, an impressive SEC win against a mid card team. But Arkansas is 3-3 and was questionable in strength until they defeated Auburn recently. Perhaps there is some cred to this Alabama team after all. Now you’d have to at least say they are a decent team.

Then comes the shocker…kicking Georgia’s behind in their own home 41-30. Georgia was ranked as high as #3 in a poll, some had them #1, so now you really have to look at this game and say that Alabama is a GOOD team.

But Georgia’s got a much tougher schedule coming up, playing 3 ranked teams in a row. What if they fail that test and slip 5-4 or 6-3? Alabama actually needs Georgia to play well to justify their win, if they fall off the map like Clemson, it will dilute their strength. Time will tell how that part of the story makes out.

Then there’s Kentucky, and the narrow 3 point win Alabama got in their house. Kentucky just a couple of weeks ago was sitting near the top with an undefeated record, but I blogged about how soft that schedule was, and they have since lost their last 2 games. I can see Kentucky losing 4 more games before the season is over.

So that brings us to where we are now…is Alabama the real thing? Should they have been worth the #1 ranking? My answer is no. And again, the truth to this is the simple fact that right now it does not matter. If this was the end of the season, they would be in the National Championship anyway, so what does it matter whether they are #1 or #2?

The real debate is, can they stay there.

Of the teams Alabama has played, Georgia seems a lock to a bowl, Kentucky SHOULD be able to get one. The others…maybe not. Of the games that Alabama has to play, it could be the same. Mississippi is their next target, a team that just knocked off Florida…this could be a trap for Alabama, but I’ll give the Crimson Tide the victory because they are home. Unless Mississippi turns it up a notch, they might not go to a bowl either.

An away game at a VERY desperate Tennessee team could be a coin toss. Yeah, Tennessee is having a tough year, but 100,000 people in that stadium could give the Volunteers everything to play for. If Tennessee is to go to a bowl this year, this might the game that determines if they can even qualify…this game is serious.

Alabama has an easy game vs. Arkansas State at home before the big game vs. LSU. This away game means everything to both teams. It means redemption for LSU with that whipping they got from Florida, and it is a statement game for Alabama. THIS is the game everyone is circling on the calendar as the big one. But it will be interesting to see if they can get here undefeated. Can they?

If so, they finish the season at home vs. Mississippi State and Auburn, two teams having troubles too. How important is that LSU game? If LSU wins, and both teams finish even in the division, LSU wins on the tie breaker. I think LSU may take that game, and may control the division by the end of the year. Even if Alabama gets through the season untouched, they’d have to face Florida in the SEC Championship. Either way, nobody survives from the SEC without a loss.

So what does this mean for Alabama? It means a fall late in the season hurts much more than a loss early. Southern Cal and Ohio State still have a chance to get back in the picture, while a loss for Alabama could cut their hopes. And considering the strength of their schedule, the opponents of Alabama might see 3 or 4 bowls…that kinda strength of schedule might show up in the BCS poll.

The ONLY way Alabama is going to get to the National Championship is to win everything…the entire SEC and the Championship. But I am just not that convinced that they can. Nobody gets through the SEC without a loss, and Alabama is no exception.

Right now, 13 teams are at this very second, qualified for a bowl with 6 Division I wins, and Alabama is one of them. They are going bowling, but somehow I just don’t see them in the National Championship…unless they sweep, and that isn’t something I can wager on.

Clemson Football: Fallen

Clemson Football: Fallen

I didn’t expect to see this story line, but well, there it is. It was recently reported that Clemson Head Football Coach Tommy Bowden decided to step down as the head coach of the Clemson Tigers, in light of the titanic fall this team has had this year.

Clemson, currently 3-3 has fallen hard from grace. At the beginning of the year the Clemson Tigers were ranked about #8 in the nation, and were the favorites to compete for the ACC Championship and a BCS bowl. But that dream ended immediately with an embarrassing loss to Alabama 34-10. The Tigers might take some comfort in the fact that currently this same team is #2 in the nation.

A win over Citadel wasn’t that impressive, but a win over NC State at the time seemed like the promise could still come true for the predicted ACC Champs. Another win over South Carolina State gave Clemson a winning record, but nothing to be proud of.

Then two ACC losses in a row, losing to Maryland 20-17 and losing to Wake Forest 12-7 seemed to be too much to endure.

I personally don’t know if the NCAA will count the wins over Citadel and South Carolina State as legit Division I wins. If they don’t then technically Clemson has only 1 quality win, needing 5 more just to qualify for a bowl. That means they’d have to win 5 of the last 6 games just to qualify for a bowl, and that does not look possible considering how they have played so far this year.

In a year where the ACC has looked VERY soft, it makes it even harder to see how Clemson can be playing so poorly when some had them in the ACC Championships, and possibly in the Sugar Bowl. So now if you are a Clemson fan, you have to look at what can be salvaged, now with a head coach gone.

First things first…can you qualify for a bowl?

As mentioned, I don’t know if the NCAA counts the Citadel and South Carolina State games as quality wins. Let’s go on the idea that it does not count. If so, Clemson then has to win 5 of their last 6 games just to qualify. Their next game is at home against Georgia Tech. IF there is any hope to saving this team, it starts here.

If you look at how Georgia Tech barely survived Gardner-Webb, then maybe there is a chance that Clemson, at home could take that. Lots of times a team plays much more inspired after something dramatic happens to a team…say losing a head coach. It is conceivable that Clemson could win this emotionally charged game, although I might say that Georgia Tech may win this game.

The next two games are AT Boston College and Florida State. I am not too sure about FSU because it seems that the Bowden there is having trouble keeping his team together too. Clemson might be having a bad year so far, but I do think they have the talent to split these two games.

The Tigers then have a home game against Duke…that ought to be a win… I mean, it IS Duke, right?

And then an away game vs. Virginia. Now, if Clemson did beat Georgia Tech and split the two away games, they have a good chance of making it to a bowl with a win here. At this point (still considering the Citadel and South Carolina State games are not valid) Clemson needs to be 6-4 before this game, and needs to beat Virginia. If so, the entire season lies in a state rival…South Carolina.

I gotta tell you, this may not be good for Clemson. If they get to this point, they have to be on a strong roll and need to play inspired ball to beat South Carolina. It may be a mirror game, because South Carolina could be playing for a bowl as well. Clemson could be fighting for their post season life at this point, unless it was already lost earlier in the season.

No doubt this is a very difficult season for Clemson and their fans, and their head coach stepping down did not help, but sometimes a team can play “inspired ball” in light of a very dramatic change. But right now, Clemson University will have to learn to get up after falling down…and the future for these players is going to be very tough. We’ll see how this turns out as the season goes on….

ACC Bowls for 2008

2008 ACC Bowl Predictions

With most ACC teams halfway through their season, it will now be interesting to see the possibilities of where some of these teams may end up. There are a ton of bowls out there for the post season, but where will your favorite ACC team end up…if they go to a bowl at all?

Let’s try to run down some ideas of where the ACC teams may go, and see how this will look a month or two down the road, shall we?

First, we have to get an idea of what bowls the ACC are eligible for:

Fed-Ex BCS National Championship

Ok, let’s go ahead a nip this in the bud…no chance. Now, outside of that the ACC does have a lot of slots available.

BCS Bowl: Available to ACC Champion
Chick-Fil-A Bowl: #2 ACC vs. SEC
Gator Bowl: #3 ACC vs. Big East or Big 12
Champ Sports Bowl: #4 ACC vs. Big 10 #4 or #5
Music City Bowl: ACC #5, #6 or #7 vs. SEC #6 or #7
Emerald Bowl: ACC #5, #6 or #7 vs. Pac 10 #5
Meinike Car Care Bowl: ACC #5, #6 or #7 vs. Big East #3
Humanitarian Bowl: WAC vs. ACC #8
Congressional (Eaglebank) Bowl: Navy vs. ACC #9

I have read on some other sites that the ACC is not going to be able to put 9 teams in the bowls, but let’s see if that is possible. We know there are 12 teams in the ACC, and as of October 12th, every team still has, in THEORY a chance to win enough games to go to the post season. But somehow, we know that’s not really gonna work out.

But we do know that there will be an ACC Championship, and the winner is guaranteed a BCS bowl. I think it is quite likely that the ACC winner will go to the Sugar bowl, because distance also determines where a team may play. Since the Fed-Ex Orange Bowl is the National Championship this year, the ACC will have no part of that. So the next closest place is New Orleans and the Sugar Bowl. To me, it looks like Virginia Tech may be playing either Wake Forest or Boston College. Either way, at this moment it looks like Virginia Tech going to the Sugar Bowl, meaning the loser will be going to the Chick-Fil-A Bowl vs. some SEC team.

I want to say Wake Forest is going to be that team, but I’m not 100% convinced that they can score enough to do that. Right now, I’ll say Boston College might be the surprise for that. But to do that, Wake Forest will have to lose a couple of games in their division, something they have not done yet. But with Boston College traveling TO Wake Forest, that might be in the Demon Deacons’ favor. But just to sound controversial, I will say Boston College loses the ACC Championship and goes to the Chick-Fil-A Bowl.

That means the third place ACC team gets to go to the Gator Bowl against either a Big 12, or Big East, or even Notre Dame. With Notre Dame losing 2 games, they may be out of any chance for a BCS bowl, so they may be going to the highest paying bowl. Here’s a thought, could UNC be that team to play in the Gator Bowl? With 6 games left, I can see them winning at least half of those, maybe even stealing a game. Three losses would look real good to them at the end of the year.

Which could drop Wake Forest to a 4th seed Bowl, that being the Champs Sports Bowl vs. a Big 10 #4 or #5. Think maybe Wisconsin or maybe even Northwestern. I could see Wake Forest going to this bowl if they don’t win their division.

It may get tricky with the next 3 bowls because the Music City Bowl, the Emerald Bowl and the Meinike Car Care Bowl have some options with the 5th, 6th and 7th ACC teams. So now you’d have to ask yourself, who else in the ACC would have qualified for a bowl after Virginia Tech, Boston College, UNC and Wake Forest?

Of those, Florida State might be in trouble, if they don’t count the two Southern Conference teams they beat earlier, then I cannot see them qualifying for a bowl. They’d have to win 4 of 7 games, and I can’t give them the Florida game and maybe not the Virginia Tech game. That means FSU has to win 4-5...I can’t see that.

IF Maryland wins 6, it will be the hard way, and it may ONLY be 6 if they play like they did against Virginia. But I think it is possible for them to get 7 wins. As far as any other teams…it might be true…the ACC can’t put 9 teams in bowl season.

Now I say that with the idea that there are a couple of ACC teams such as Miami and Clemson, and maybe Virginia that has outside shots, but from what I have seen, it don’t look too good. What this may mean is that those bowls will open up for at large teams, but if Maryland is the only one to qualify after the previous ones that I have going to a bowl, I think the Meinike Car Care Bowl will take Maryland because travel isn’t too far for the fans of Maryland. The Emerald Bowl, in San Francisco, could be too much of a stretch to ask fans to travel across the country for a mid card bowl.

So right now, it seems that the ACC might put 5 teams in a bowl; Virginia Tech, Boston College, UNC, Wake Forest and Maryland. There are other teams that could change this, but it might be a stretch. We’ll see how this plays out and update this if we can.