Monday, December 15, 2008

UNC vs West Virginia in Car Care Bowl

Meineke Car Care Bowl

West Virginia vs. UNC

So it seems that West Virginia has to return to the state where they were embarrassed earlier this year…

Two teams with identical records, both 8-4. One team was destined for greatness this year, but fell short, another team snuck up on their conference, only to fall at the end.

This is actually a pretty good matchup that makes sense on several levels. Because this bowl takes place in Charlotte, NC, it makes it super-easy to invite an ACC team since all four teams qualified for a bowl (Wake Forest, NC State, UNC and ….oops…not Duke).

But it also makes some sense for West Virginia, since they have actually been in the state earlier this year, losing to ECU. So a return trip isn’t so bad, and not so far away for the Mountaineers.

So as they say in boxing, let’s look at the “Tale of the tape”

West Virginia comes in with great expectations, but losing a great running back. How would they start the season, being a team that could possibly make a major BCS bowl, or dare we say, the National Championship?

The win over Villanova 48-21 was the usual “tune up” and it was expected that the next couple of games would be the same…but not quite.

A stunning loss in Greenville to upstart (and eventual Conference USA Champs) East Carolina crippled their National Title hopes very early…and a second loss to Colorado destroyed any hope of it at all.

Now 1-2, this looked like a team in turmoil and disarray. Unless West Virginia find a way to get their team back on track, there was no hope of even fighting for a conference title and that coveted BCS Bowl birth. Already there were words spoken of how soft the Big East was, as well as the ACC…some had mentioned the desire to leave out such teams if they cannot keep a team in the top 10...

(foolish words, most spoken by even smaller conferences who happened to have a team ranked high off very weak schedules….)

But West Virginia began to pull it together, beating Marshall (what happened to THAT team) and the third win of the year over struggling Rutgers. It would appear that their wins and losses corresponded to their away and home games. They lost to Colorado and ECU away, and all other games were at home. Perhaps that trend will continue…

Wins over Syracuse and Auburn (incidentally both teams ended up getting rid of their coaches) pulled the West Virginia record to 5-2. But they needed to validate this new direction of winning by beating a quality team…away from home.

That win came when they defeated Connecticut 35-13, as the Huskies were currently ranked at the time. This was a signature win, and at 6-2 the Mountaineers were flying high…

Until they lost to Cincinnati, at home, in overtime, 26-23.

West Virginia managed to split the next two away games, beating suffering Louisville and losing to ranked Pittsburgh, before ending the season with a win over South Florida, at home 13-7.

Of the four losses, the one to Colorado is not well tolerated, but losing to ECU (Conference USA Champs), Cincinnati (Big East Champs) and Pittsburgh, are very quality losses…if you have to lose. Six teams will be in a bowl off this schedule, and West Virginia beat half of them.

The Tarheels of UNC won’t have to travel so far to get to Charlotte, and come in bringing an impressive 8-4 record, although it seemed they choked down the stretch.

( I say this being a Tarheel fan…)

The ACC was perhaps the MOST complex conference in Division I. Many claim it was “soft” but that isn’t true, there were numerous great teams. I am not saying they are the best, because they are not, but from top to bottom, they had more to offer than any other conference.

UNC started out strong, beating McNeese State, although barely, and then got a surprising win vs. Rutgers on ESPN…BIG. A 44-12 beat down set the Big East back a few years with that embarrassing loss. So now things were looking good for UNC with Virginia Tech coming off an embarrassing loss to ECU, surely they can run the record to 3-0?

Nope. Back to earth with a 20-17 loss, although it was a great game.

Now 2-1, some thought this might be a good year for the Tarheels, and a big win AT Miami was the beginning of three straight wins. And at the moment, UNC had 2 conference wins, which is always good.

But it wasn’t until UNC knocked off UCONN while they were ranked that had people looking at Chapel Hill as a possible power in the ACC this year. And when they beat storied Notre Dame, there was some national attention placed on the Tarheels. No, this was not a BCS Championship team, but hey, a BCS Bowl??

It was expected that UNC would win at Virginia because the Cavaliers were having such a bad year… but that’s why you have to play every game. In over time UNC lost to Virginia 16-13, and brought the team back to earth again, and reminding them that they were not going to sweep the ACC schedule.

But this team was not about to fold the tents, there was a conference they could win, and they wanted it. Two great wins over Boston College and then ranked Georgia Tech had UNC the talk of the ACC with a 7-2 record, but both losses coming from their conference.

Already qualified for a bowl, perhaps the team got overconfident when they traveled to Maryland, and lost 17-15. But surely they would be able to beat lowly NC State, a team that needed to win all their remaining games just to qualify for a bowl…

But alas, the Wolfpack crushed UNC in their own house, 41-10. Something was going on with the mindset of the Tarheels, and it seemed that once they secured post season, they relaxed. This was NOT the way to finish a season, and they had to get it together against Duke…I mean, surely they can beat Duke..

Even at Duke this should have been an easier game, but UNC wins only by 8 points, and limps into post season against West Virginia.

NINE of the 12 teams on UNC’s schedule will be in a bowl, a very strong schedule. But is this team “burned out”? To be sure, they overachieved, and West Virginia may have underachieved; will we see the balance of that in this bowl game?

This is a very good game to watch, and I think West Virginia has an advantage, being a more veteran team with a great quarterback. But West Virginia has already tasted defeat in the state, and UNC is practically home…how will this play out…

Florida Atlantic vs Central Michigan in MC Bowl

2008 Motor City Bowl

Florida Atlantic vs. Central Michigan

The MAC gave the nation a nice ride with Ball State, but there were several other teams that had pretty good records, one being Central Michigan. Their reward is the post season, and a game near home against one of 200 different Florida teams in Division I…

(just kidding, there are only 149 division I teams in Florida)

This bowl game matches up a team from the Sun Belt vs. a team from the MAC, and on paper, this really looks like a tough game for Florida Atlantic. But for sake of argument, let’s look at the resumes of both teams:

As mentioned, the Sun Belt gives Florida Atlantic to this bowl. Consider that in the FBS (Division I), there are 11 conferences and 4 independent teams. Of those conferences, the Sun Belt is almost nationally known as the least of the FBS conferences. If there was a second weakest, it would be a nice debate between Conference USA and the MAC.

And from this Sun Belt Conference comes a 6-6 team, Florida Atlantic Owls. The started out the year against then #11 Texas, losing big (52-10). But that was to be expected.

Their first win of the season came against UAB, which is a decent win for this team against a Conference USA team. But the next four games would be quite brutal…

A shutout to Michigan State, 17-0, then a big loss to Minnesota 37-3 before a third away game loss in as many weeks to Middle Tennessee State 14-13.

Things were not looking good for the Owls, now 1-4, and all losses away. It seemed that what they needed was some “home cooking”. But that was not to be, losing to Troy at home 30-17. Now at 1-5, the season for the Florida Atlantic Owls looked bleak. Already two games down in conference, only one win, what was there left to play for?

But this is a team with resolve, and showed that in the next game…and several after that.

Turning things around, the next win was on the road, beating Western Kentucky 24-20, then beating Louisiana-Monroe 29-28. The winning continued with a victory over North Texas 46-13, and against Louisiana-Lafayette 40-29. All of a sudden things were turning around for the Owls, and were now 5-5 with 2 games remaining.

They would split games, losing to Arkansas State before winning in overtime against Florida International 57-50. But it was enough, they were going bowling. Six teams on the schedule will be in bowls, and the Owls went 1-5 against them.

So what of Central Michigan?

An 8-4 team out of the MAC, this team faced many tough challenges throughout the season. A win against Eastern Illinois started the season as expected until they ran into then #2 ranked Georgia, losing 56-17.

Two away games were split as the Chippewas won against Ohio 31-28, but turned around and lost to the Big 10 foe Purdue 35-25. With a record of 2-2, they were doing fine, as whispers around the conference began to swell about Ball State….

But Central Michigan would then go on an incredible SIX game winning streak, dispatching every team in their way, regardless of what conference they came out of.

Buffalo fell to the Chippewas 27-25 as did Temple (Owls…interesting…) 24-14. The winning continued as Central bests Western Michigan 38-28 and raising their record to 5-2, and starting to get a little attention as well.

Three away games added to the greatness of this team, beating on the road, Toledo by one point, Big 10 foe Indiana by 3, and Northern Illinois in overtime by 3 points. It had all set up a HUGE game at home, with ranked Ball State (and conference rival) coming to their house.

But alas, it was not in the Chippewas’ favor, losing 31-24, and then losing the final game of the year to Eastern Michigan 56-52. Half of the season was faced playing teams that would eventually go to a bowl, so just as Florida Atlantic, they are battle tested.

But who is in favor? It kinda seems obvious.

Remind me where they are playing again…Detroit? As in MICHIGAN?

Central Michigan may be considered the 4th best team in the MAC, following Buffalo, Ball State and Western Michigan. Florida Atlantic was the fourth in a weaker conference, this could be a blow out. The Chippewas have seen owls before, and beat them before, this could be a repeat…but then again, that’s why they PLAY the game.