NEW BCS Standings, Oct 23rd
Ok, if you are not hip to my blog, you might want to jump back a few posts and read what I mean by the “new” BCS. Simply put, I wanted to create a formula to decide who the best teams might be at this stage of the season, based on 24 factors.
I have used that formula to figure out who may well be the top 10 teams of the season thus far, but it is not a perfect formula. It takes into account the current facts, but as each week goes by, it can change quite dramatically. I broke the major factors into groups, and use these following to determine my formulaL
Factor #1 Wins: Most important, and I give 20 points for every win a team has.
Factors 2&3: Road and home wins: I place a bit more emphasis on winning at home, and protecting your house, than on the road. I give 7 extra points for every home win, and 5 extra points for every road win.
Factors 4-6: FBS factor: I give 7 points for every team you beat that is in your conference, and 3 points for every team out of your conference. IF you play a team that is not a FBS school, you LOSE two points. This rewards those who play tougher schedules, and penalizes the cupcakes.
Factors 7-10 Ranked foes: You get extra points for knocking off a top 25 team at the time they were ranked. If you beat a #4 team in week 3, and they fall off by week 6, you still get credit for beating them when they were ranked. I give 10 points to any team that knocks off a top 5 team, 7 points for beating a 6-10 team, 5 points for beating a team ranked between 11-15 and 3 points for beating any team from 16 to 25.
Factors 11-13: Strength factor: I reward extra points if you beat a team that has a winning record, or even a .500 record. I give 7 points for every team on your schedule that has a winning record as the season goes on. Any team with an even record nets you 3 points, but any team that falls under .500, you LOSE 2 points.
Factors 14-16: Beatdown factor: The more points you pile on, the more you get. But you must beat your team by at least 16 to qualify. If a team wins by over 16 points, I give them one extra point. If they win by over 24 points, I give them 3 points. If they crush their opponent by over 36, they get 5 extra points.
Factors 17-19: Passing factor: A team is considered great if they are a top 20 passing team OR rushing…or both. I give 5 points to the team that is in the top 5 in passing yards and touchdowns, for a total of 10 points possible. I give 3 points if they are in the top 10 in either category, and 1 point if they are in the top 20 in either.
Factors 20-22: Rushing factor: Same as Passing, I give 5 points if a team is in the top 5 in rushing yards or rushing touchdowns, and 3 points if in the top 10, and a single point if in the top 20.
Factors 23-24: Defense factor: They say offense wins games but defense wins championships. I am not so sure about that, but I do give 5 additional points if the team holds each opponent to under 8 points, and 2 points if they hold each team under 16. It’s my way of rewarding good defensive play.
Now, having gone through all that, here are my top 1 teams according to my NEW BCS formula:
#12 LSU: 189 points. With no real valuable wins, and nowhere in the top 20 in passing or rushing, this team edges out at the bottom of my list.
#11 Miami: 195 points. Similar to LSU, as far as rushing and passing, but some very quality wins keeps them in the loop.
#10 AND #9 TIE USC and Oregon: 205 points. Two one loss teams out of the Pac 10 look pretty good, but we know that they have to play one another soon… this problem will fix itself.
#8 TCU: 222 points: TCU scores in every category, but they need a couple of quality wins to jump over anybody…they are on track to see those very games ahead.
#7 Boise State: 225 points: Very narrow margin with Boise State, and with no real quality wins left, I see them slipping further down. It won’t take much for TCU to overtake them if both continue to win.
#6 Cincinnati: 234 points: This seems to prove that an undefeated team out of even a “weaker” BCS conference is indeed better than Boise State or TCU, and Cincinnati has a couple of big games yet to come.
#5 Georgia Tech: 237 points: With 7 games played, they do have an advantage over those who have so far played 6, so this score may not be totally honest and even. But considering they have one loss, this will be a serious question if they win out.
#4 Texas: 238 points: Some question how Texas has played lately, and a few even say that Texas will lose to Missouri. But to me this is one of the best teams in the nation, and if they sweep the Big 12, they are a shoe in for the National Title.
#3 Florida: 247 points: Much that is said about Texas can be said about Florida and their many close games. But like Texas, if they win out, they are likely in the BCS Championship.
#2 Iowa: 291 points: I have Iowa here only because they have 7 wins, and no one else underneath them has such. The extra game, to this point, has been the reason why they are here at #2. What my formula seems to imply is that winning, and more of it, is indeed most important. But as the other teams play their schedule, things will even out.
#1 Alabama: 297 points: Just as with Iowa, Alabama has 7 wins as well, which on paper look more impressive than 6 wins. If you consider that they are 40 points ahead of Florida and Texas, this could easily be about even. Alabama has the edge only because they get the benefits of the points for a 7th win. As more games are played, we will see the truth come out.
So that’s what I got so far folks, I don’t claim to say this is the gospel, just something fun to do to make conversation. As it stands right now, I have Alabama and Iowa as the two best teams, but ONLY because they have 7 wins. After all, a 7-0 record is better than a 6-0 record, right?
Right? (he said, expecting a debate….)
Friday, October 23, 2009
Florida State 30, UNC 27
Florida State 30 UNC 27
Speedblog
I’ll admit, this was a tough game for me to watch, in fact, I spent more time flipping channels between Southern vs. Prarie View, the UFL game on VS, and even the preseason basketball game of the Lakers vs. the Nuggets.
I was concerned because I had a lot of mixed feelings for this game.
I am a UNC fan through and through, but we all know that the football edge of UNC isn’t why most people support the Tarheels. And I also like Florida State, not because of the Seminoles, but because I believe Bobby Bowden is one of those guys that should be respected for what he has done for the program.
What ticks me off is when some idiot starts to use age discrimination against the man who built the program from the ground up. And sadly, a lot of the guys on ESPN are on the fence about Bobby Bowden.
What this shows is that we as a people are ignorant to history, and we can see something 2 days ago, but still refuse to acknowledge it. Wasn’t it just a few years ago when the media was using age against Joe Paterno? How did that turn out so far?
And people like to talk about the “what have you done for me lately”. Well, wasn’t Florida State 9-4 LAST YEAR? It’s like these idiots developed amnesia about this coaching legend! So now Florida State comes in Chapel Hill 2-4, and Bowden’s coaching life on the line.
I blogged about this and felt that FSU should win because 5 out of the 6 games they have had thus far were against winning teams, and most have been ranked throughout the season. Folks, that is one hell of a schedule so far. But it gets easier, and it is possible that FSU can win at least 6, maybe as much as 7 games. I also felt that a lot of their losses come in their home state, that the road games might be the best thing for these Seminoles.
On the flip side, as much as I love UNC, their 4-2 record seemed bogus to me, although last year it was pretty good. They had only played one ranked team so far this year, and lost to them. I just felt that Florida State was good enough to beat UNC, and I figured it would be by 6 points. Turns out they won by 3.
So FSU is now 3-4, with a home game vs. NC State. Normally I think they can win, but again, there is some uncanny problem about FSU playing in their home state. They NEED this win, but so far they have one 1 game in the last SIX at home…not a good stat.
But if they can get by the Wolfpack, the road games vs. Clemson and Wake Forest could get them on the right track. It is possible for them to be 6-4 after that, or maybe 5-5. They will need to beat Maryland at home to likely qualify for a bowl, because that last game is on the road vs. Florida.
For the Tarheels, life gets harder. They go TO Virginia Tech, which could end up being a 4-4 result. They are home vs. Duke and Miami, and most think they will split that, before going on the road to play Boston College and NC State. It is quite possible that the hated rivals of UNC/NC State could decide whether UNC qualifies for a bowl.
In truth, I am pulling for both teams, but they still have to perform on the field…my best to them both.
Speedblog
I’ll admit, this was a tough game for me to watch, in fact, I spent more time flipping channels between Southern vs. Prarie View, the UFL game on VS, and even the preseason basketball game of the Lakers vs. the Nuggets.
I was concerned because I had a lot of mixed feelings for this game.
I am a UNC fan through and through, but we all know that the football edge of UNC isn’t why most people support the Tarheels. And I also like Florida State, not because of the Seminoles, but because I believe Bobby Bowden is one of those guys that should be respected for what he has done for the program.
What ticks me off is when some idiot starts to use age discrimination against the man who built the program from the ground up. And sadly, a lot of the guys on ESPN are on the fence about Bobby Bowden.
What this shows is that we as a people are ignorant to history, and we can see something 2 days ago, but still refuse to acknowledge it. Wasn’t it just a few years ago when the media was using age against Joe Paterno? How did that turn out so far?
And people like to talk about the “what have you done for me lately”. Well, wasn’t Florida State 9-4 LAST YEAR? It’s like these idiots developed amnesia about this coaching legend! So now Florida State comes in Chapel Hill 2-4, and Bowden’s coaching life on the line.
I blogged about this and felt that FSU should win because 5 out of the 6 games they have had thus far were against winning teams, and most have been ranked throughout the season. Folks, that is one hell of a schedule so far. But it gets easier, and it is possible that FSU can win at least 6, maybe as much as 7 games. I also felt that a lot of their losses come in their home state, that the road games might be the best thing for these Seminoles.
On the flip side, as much as I love UNC, their 4-2 record seemed bogus to me, although last year it was pretty good. They had only played one ranked team so far this year, and lost to them. I just felt that Florida State was good enough to beat UNC, and I figured it would be by 6 points. Turns out they won by 3.
So FSU is now 3-4, with a home game vs. NC State. Normally I think they can win, but again, there is some uncanny problem about FSU playing in their home state. They NEED this win, but so far they have one 1 game in the last SIX at home…not a good stat.
But if they can get by the Wolfpack, the road games vs. Clemson and Wake Forest could get them on the right track. It is possible for them to be 6-4 after that, or maybe 5-5. They will need to beat Maryland at home to likely qualify for a bowl, because that last game is on the road vs. Florida.
For the Tarheels, life gets harder. They go TO Virginia Tech, which could end up being a 4-4 result. They are home vs. Duke and Miami, and most think they will split that, before going on the road to play Boston College and NC State. It is quite possible that the hated rivals of UNC/NC State could decide whether UNC qualifies for a bowl.
In truth, I am pulling for both teams, but they still have to perform on the field…my best to them both.
Naysayers of Cincinnati
Any Naysayers of Cincinnati?
Speedblog
Let’s talk a little about Cincinnati…and I don’t mean the BENGALS!
I am pleased to this point about Cincinnati, because I think the media did the Big East an injustice by omitting the ENTIRE conference from the top 25 poll. To me, that is foolish to think that no team in the Big East could be considered to be one of the top 25 teams in the nation.
This seems to show how stupid voters are, when they omit a team that last year, won 11 games. Now I know other teams like Ball State won 12 and stuff like that there, but any team from a BCS conference that had 11 wins last year ought to at least been put on the top 25 at the beginning. If you are foolish enough to put Notre Dame up there for 7 weak wins last year, you ought to have put Cincinnati up there at the beginning of the year.
But they didn’t so the Big East got no love. And all Cincinnati did was fight their way up the rankings up to #5 on the BCS and AP Polls. Personally, I think Cincinnati is right where they need to be, as my New BCS Formula had, at this moment, Alabama, Iowa, Florida, Texas, Cincinnati, Boise State and TCU, in that order… but if you read my blogs on this, you know that Alabama and Iowa’s scores are based on the fact that they had 7 games, and everybody else had 6.
So Cincinnati is in the mix right now…do they have a shot? What is hurting them at the moment is that their schedule isn’t top notch. Their only quality win against a top 25 opponent was against South Florida. And their next two games are against the bottom feeders of the Big East, so they might slip a bit for that.
But with games vs. West Virginia and Pittsburgh, they need those teams to stay in the top 25, so they’ll have to actually be pulling for them until they face them on the field. As it stands now, Cincinnati needs to play tougher foes to stay a step ahead of Boise state. Remember, one of their 3 losses last year came from Connecticut, so they have to be careful.
I have to think that deep down, the entire Big East conference is pulling for Cincinnati just as the ACC was pulling for Virginia Tech, both conferences need to make a mark in the BCS to validate their strength. Most people felt that these two conferences underachieved last year, which is debatable. But right now, Cincinnati commands respect because we know Alabama and Florida must meet if they continue their paths (SEC Championship) and Texas has to run the tables to the Big 12 Championship. Teams like Cincinnati, UCS and Iowa don’t have conference championships, so it is one less game to worry about. Can the Bearcats get there if they go undefeated? Can they???
Speedblog
Let’s talk a little about Cincinnati…and I don’t mean the BENGALS!
I am pleased to this point about Cincinnati, because I think the media did the Big East an injustice by omitting the ENTIRE conference from the top 25 poll. To me, that is foolish to think that no team in the Big East could be considered to be one of the top 25 teams in the nation.
This seems to show how stupid voters are, when they omit a team that last year, won 11 games. Now I know other teams like Ball State won 12 and stuff like that there, but any team from a BCS conference that had 11 wins last year ought to at least been put on the top 25 at the beginning. If you are foolish enough to put Notre Dame up there for 7 weak wins last year, you ought to have put Cincinnati up there at the beginning of the year.
But they didn’t so the Big East got no love. And all Cincinnati did was fight their way up the rankings up to #5 on the BCS and AP Polls. Personally, I think Cincinnati is right where they need to be, as my New BCS Formula had, at this moment, Alabama, Iowa, Florida, Texas, Cincinnati, Boise State and TCU, in that order… but if you read my blogs on this, you know that Alabama and Iowa’s scores are based on the fact that they had 7 games, and everybody else had 6.
So Cincinnati is in the mix right now…do they have a shot? What is hurting them at the moment is that their schedule isn’t top notch. Their only quality win against a top 25 opponent was against South Florida. And their next two games are against the bottom feeders of the Big East, so they might slip a bit for that.
But with games vs. West Virginia and Pittsburgh, they need those teams to stay in the top 25, so they’ll have to actually be pulling for them until they face them on the field. As it stands now, Cincinnati needs to play tougher foes to stay a step ahead of Boise state. Remember, one of their 3 losses last year came from Connecticut, so they have to be careful.
I have to think that deep down, the entire Big East conference is pulling for Cincinnati just as the ACC was pulling for Virginia Tech, both conferences need to make a mark in the BCS to validate their strength. Most people felt that these two conferences underachieved last year, which is debatable. But right now, Cincinnati commands respect because we know Alabama and Florida must meet if they continue their paths (SEC Championship) and Texas has to run the tables to the Big 12 Championship. Teams like Cincinnati, UCS and Iowa don’t have conference championships, so it is one less game to worry about. Can the Bearcats get there if they go undefeated? Can they???
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