Monday, October 20, 2008

Saints and Chargers: Fair losses?

Saints and Chargers: Fair losses?

Ok, I KNOW some of you guys think I am trying to side with the Saints since I am a Saints (and Raiders) fan, but hear me out on this.

I know both the New Orleans Saints and the Sand Diego Chargers lost yesterday, but I want to make a case for both teams. I say this because after watching one of my favorite shows, PTI, I seem to think Tony and Michael have forgotten some important things about the next few days.

To recap, the Saints lost to the Carolina Panthers in Charlotte by a score of 30-7, while the Chargers lost to the Buffalo Bills in Buffalo 23-14. The losses hurt both teams pretty bad because this drops the Saints to 3-4, with three of those losses away from home, while the Chargers fall to the same record, winning only one in four games away.

Why is this important? Why am I only trying to defend two losers? Because these same two teams have to play an away game in a whole different country! The Chargers are supposedly “AT” New Orleans in London, England, which I think is a terrible mistake for the NFL.

Now note, I am not saying it is a bad idea to have football in Europe, but it is highly unfair for two teams trying to make it to post season. And yeah, I know about the Giants, but that wasn’t this late in the season.

To me it is hypocritical that the NFL just dumped the entire World League after finding out that it does not work, but yet are trying to push our beliefs down their throats. When they try to bring soccer here, we shun it like the plague, but we expect them to embrace the “American sport”. But that’s a whole different blog…

But you have to really wonder if this got into both team’s heads. I mean, it’s one thing if you’re the Chargers, knowing that your next game is about 2000 miles away in a week. But what if it’s 5500 miles? That’s how far it is from San Diego to London. You can’t tell me that this does not have an effect on any player. The same goes for the Saints, and we’re not even talking about the major injury to Reggie Bush, and how it directly impacts the team.

I cannot buy for a second the idea that a player can play hard without these things affecting him. How many of you remember the World League and all the problems the US teams had when they traveled overseas? Their records were so bad, the NFL had to dissolve all the US teams, thus keeping the European teams (until recently). Heck, just last night the commentators were talking about how hard it was for Seattle to win games on the other side of the country…how much so for teams traveling to another country altogether?

I know these guys are professionals, but before they are athletes, they are human, and subject to some of the same things as all humans who travel. I personally think those losses came before they took to the field, knowing all the things about traveling overseas.

And let’s not forget the schedule the Saints have had thus far. Of the 7 teams they have played, 4 of them could be in the playoffs at the end of the year. Again, I don’t want to make it sound like I am siding only for them, but they have had a difficult schedule, with the Bush injury, and now traveling to another country in the middle of the season to play a game the desperately need to win…the NFL is asking a crap load out of these guys.

San Diego is in the same fix. Their benefit is in the fact that their division stinks, with Oakland and Kansas City at the bottom (yeah, I know the Raiders are my team too, but they DO stink, even with that win).

Where the Saints are at the bottom of their division, the Chargers are in second place, but they cannot afford to fall behind any more. Their previous games were just as hard as the Saints, and outside of the Raiders and Chiefs, the remainder of the schedule is just as difficult. Right now, the Chargers might be looking at 7 wins, maybe 8 at the rate they are going, so it is imperative that they get this win in London.

These are two teams that really, really need a win, and maybe in an ironic way, it becomes very important when they play in London. But somehow, I think they both got screwed for the benefit of the NFL and their bid to try to bring football back to Europe.

I don’t think it’s gonna work…if it did, they would not have dissolved the European teams before. Sadly, it’s gonna cost the Saints and the Chargers. I know they get the bye week after the game, but we’re gonna see if this trip was all it was cracked up to be.

Anyway, I gotta fly, if you missed my blog on Alabama and Penn State in the BCS, check out my blogs on blogspot.com. See ya later!

http://raidersaint.blogspot.com

Alabama VS Penn State

Alabama Football: Can they go Undefeated?

As of Monday, October 20th of 2008, we can all agree to some degree that Alabama is the second best team in the nation. With the current BCS poll out, we see that the clear number 1 at the moment is Texas, and I don’t think anybody is going to argue that.

Second place is Alabama, with Penn State behind. These three teams are all undefeated, and come out of three different conferences. It’s a cinch that any two teams that finish undefeated will play in the Championship Bowl, especially if they come out of the Big 12 and the SEC.

But I wondered if Penn State might be slightly better than Alabama, and thus should have maybe moved up over the Tide. Well, let’s look at this and see if there is any credibility to my argument.

What I am going to do is look at each game and see who should have the upper hand between Alabama and Penn State. We’re going on a wide assumption that Texas will go undefeated, but understand that this is just speculation. Any team can lose on any Saturday.

The fact that Alabama’s BCS rating of .9487 and Penn State’s rating of .8666 seems to imply that there is a pretty valid argument for Alabama is better suited for the second spot, let’s examine this game by game:

First game: Alabama beats #9 ranked Clemson in Clemson 34-10 while Penn State beats Coastal Carolina at home 66-10.

At the beginning of they year, there is no question that of the two games, Alabama looked MUCH better. Penn State beat a team they were supposed to beat, while Alabama pulled off one of the early surprises of the year. This is what rocketed the Tide off to a great start.

Second game: Alabama beats Tulane at home 20-6 while Penn State crushes Oregon State 45-14 at home.

Of these two games, Penn State had the tougher challenge, and proved that a good team can beat another good team with that kind of margin. Alabama handles their business against a lesser foe, but maybe the low score comes of the high of beating Clemson the week before. If I said Alabama was the better of the two schools after the first game, I might still have Alabama better but with Penn State gaining on a slim margin.

Third game: Alabama beats Western Kentucky 41-7 at home while Penn State beats Syracuse AT Syracuse 55-13.

This one is almost even, since neither of the two losing teams makes a heavy impact on the National Championship team. But if you forced me to pick a better team from this, I have to say Penn State ONLY because Syracuse is from a power conference school. This also implies that if Syracuse was to play Western Kentucky, then the Orangemen should win. But that’s theory. So after three games, I might have both Alabama and Penn State about dead even.

Game four: Alabama beats Arkansas AT Arkansas 49-14 while Penn State beats Temple at home 45-3.

I give Alabama the nod here because even though Arkansas is rebuilding, it is still a conference game and Alabama had to win that away from home. Penn State has a home game against Temple…even I could win that game if I had some friends come over and suit up. So I give the nod to Alabama after four games.

Game five: Alabama slaps #3 Georgia in their face, in the Bulldogs’ home 41-30 while Penn State beats #22 Illinois 38-24 at home.

Both quality wins to be sure, but there is no denying that to beat a then high ranked team in their house is much better than beating a lower ranked team while at home. That is not to take anything away from Penn State, it’s just that Alabama’s win was clearly more impressive. Give a strong nod to Alabama.

Game six: Alabama escapes Kentucky 17-14 at home while Penn State travels to Purdue and win 20-6.

Two key conference games, but different looks on it. Sure, Alabama won, but it was close to a team many thought was overachieving with a soft schedule. You could justify it by saying it was a letdown after the big win at Georgia. Penn State wins a game against a mid-card team in Purdue, but a conference game nevertheless. I’d like to say this one would be about even, but if forced to pick I would say PSU’s win is slightly better ONLY because it was an away game. But overall, I still have Alabama as the better team of the two.

Game seven: Alabama survives a home game vs. Ole Miss 24-20 while Penn State stomps on Wisconsin AT Wisconsin 48-7.

I know the Badgers ain’t what they were last year but this is still a big win for Penn State to beat a conference foe in their house by this much. Alabama has actually had a few games that were too close for call, and it could signal the actual strength of the team. Granted every conference game can be tough, but beating Ole Miss by 4 points in your house does not compare to crushing a conference foe known for winning by over 40 points. Huge nod to Penn State for this week, and it draws the two teams even to me.

Now we know Alabama has not played an 8th game yet, but Penn State has, defeating Michigan at home 46-17. This win, even against a rebuilding conference foe, is a strong indication of how well Penn State is playing. If I give credit to Alabama for beating a rebuilding Arkansas, I must give the same to PSU. So although with unbalanced games at this point, I might have Penn State ahead of Alabama with a slight nod.

But let’s look at the strength of schedule. Alabama’s foes are currently 24-25, with key teams being Georgia at 6-1 and Kentucky at 5-2. Penn State’s foes are currently 22-35 with strong teams being Illinois at 4-3 and Oregon State at 4-3. If you had to look at it this way, I might have to agree that Alabama is currently slightly better than Penn State, but not by a whole lot.

I think the game vs. Costal Carolina may hurt Penn State’s strength of schedule, but I guess I cannot argue about Alabama being #2. This does not mean it will end that way, because if Alabama loses any games, they will fall hard, and I just can’t see Alabama running the tables in the SEC AND winning the SEC Championship. In fact, it would not surprise me if they lost 2 games before the end of the season. The LSU game is their biggest, but they better not forget Tennessee or Auburn. Penn State has a huge game against Ohio State and one at the end of the season against Michigan State.

It’s not a cakewalk for either team, but if both finish out, and go perfect, you have to give the nod, however slight, to Alabama.

The BCS Standings, first view

The First BCS Rankings of 2008

Now note, this isn’t the FIRST showing of the BCS rankings, I may well be the last guy to talk about it this week, but it is the first poll of the season. I thought we’d take a look at it and see if there is any surprises.

Before the rankings came out, I actually thought there was a chance that Penn State might jump over Alabama. I know both are undefeated, but it seemed like Penn State’s crushing win over Michigan seemed more convincing than Alabama’s win over Ole Miss. I thought there might be a slight chance of that happening, not that it would.

So Texas is number 1, no surprise there. With that big win over Oklahoma and a win over Missouri, this IS the best team in the NCAA…for now. There is no question here, if Texas runs the tables, they are in. But here’s another bit for you, if ANY Big 12 team that is currently undefeated runs the tables, they are in. The conference is just too good to NOT have the Big 12 in the National Championship. Texas scores a .9979 out of a 10, so that is near perfect…as it should be.

Alabama is second with a BCS rating of .9487. I mentioned earlier that I thought there might be a chance of Penn State jumping over them, not that I would argue either way. I think if Alabama sweeps the SEC, they obviously are in… but I will debate the strength of schedule.

Yes they beat Clemson, but where is Clemson now? They’ll be lucky to even make a bowl. Tulane, Western Kentucky and Arkansas aren’t scaring anybody, and we know Arkansas is in a rebuilding year. Granted the Georgia game was incredible, but adding on wins over a Kentucky team that has a soft schedule and ANY Mississippi team, and I gotta tell you, I am just not convinced that this is the second best team in the nation.

That’s not a knock against Alabama fans, because you always cheer for your team, regardless of the situation (CLEMSON) but to me, I don’t agree with the BCS having Alabama here. But IF they sweep, they will have proven that they are the second best team in the nation.

Penn State holds position at #3 with a .8666 and you can now make an argument of the “what ifs”. The media does this every year, stirring questions without giving time for things to play out. What if Texas, Alabama and Penn State finish undefeated?

I thought PSU would jump but when you look at the schedule, I guess I can see why they didn’t. They do have a couple of quality wins, but the Wisconsin game should have helped Penn State out, but they also needed the Badgers to not flop like they are currently doing. And wins against Temple and Syracuse isn’t raising any eyebrows either. They’re gonna have to beat Ohio State and hope Michigan State finishes in the top 25 by the end of the year to have a chance to jump over Alabama. Penn State needs QUALITY wins if the top two teams aren’t budging. But this is the curse of the Big 10, without a conference championship, you don’t get that extra game to make your point.

Oklahoma is 4th with a .8319 and we all know that their loss was against Texas. Now here is something to think about. What if Oklahoma wins the rest of their games and Alabama loses one game? Is it possible that with ranked teams Texas Tech AND Oklahoma State left on the schedule, could Oklahoma jump into a second spot, OVER Penn State?

I mean, it COULD happen. The strength of schedule is in Oklahoma’s favor….

Just thinking out loud…..

USC rounds out the top 5 at a ranking of .7751, a far cry from the Championship game unless things happen. The problem for USC is that currently, NONE of the remaining teams on the schedule are ranked, so we’re looking at a very weak schedule. They may have to crush everybody 69-0 to get some serious looks, but that one loss against Oregon State may have done them in. There is still hope to move up, but they won’t get any help from the remaining teams. MAYBE Cal, and there might be some mercy votes for Notre Dame, but outside of that, they are kinda in the same boat as Penn State. Without a Pac-10 Championship to stir the pot, they are at the mercy of the other teams above them.

I’ll probably get in more detail on this in another blog, as you guys know I am blogging more on Blogspot than on Wordpress and Blogster, Until then….

http://raidersaint.blogspot.com/