Alabama VS Penn State

Alabama Football: Can they go Undefeated?

As of Monday, October 20th of 2008, we can all agree to some degree that Alabama is the second best team in the nation. With the current BCS poll out, we see that the clear number 1 at the moment is Texas, and I don’t think anybody is going to argue that.

Second place is Alabama, with Penn State behind. These three teams are all undefeated, and come out of three different conferences. It’s a cinch that any two teams that finish undefeated will play in the Championship Bowl, especially if they come out of the Big 12 and the SEC.

But I wondered if Penn State might be slightly better than Alabama, and thus should have maybe moved up over the Tide. Well, let’s look at this and see if there is any credibility to my argument.

What I am going to do is look at each game and see who should have the upper hand between Alabama and Penn State. We’re going on a wide assumption that Texas will go undefeated, but understand that this is just speculation. Any team can lose on any Saturday.

The fact that Alabama’s BCS rating of .9487 and Penn State’s rating of .8666 seems to imply that there is a pretty valid argument for Alabama is better suited for the second spot, let’s examine this game by game:

First game: Alabama beats #9 ranked Clemson in Clemson 34-10 while Penn State beats Coastal Carolina at home 66-10.

At the beginning of they year, there is no question that of the two games, Alabama looked MUCH better. Penn State beat a team they were supposed to beat, while Alabama pulled off one of the early surprises of the year. This is what rocketed the Tide off to a great start.

Second game: Alabama beats Tulane at home 20-6 while Penn State crushes Oregon State 45-14 at home.

Of these two games, Penn State had the tougher challenge, and proved that a good team can beat another good team with that kind of margin. Alabama handles their business against a lesser foe, but maybe the low score comes of the high of beating Clemson the week before. If I said Alabama was the better of the two schools after the first game, I might still have Alabama better but with Penn State gaining on a slim margin.

Third game: Alabama beats Western Kentucky 41-7 at home while Penn State beats Syracuse AT Syracuse 55-13.

This one is almost even, since neither of the two losing teams makes a heavy impact on the National Championship team. But if you forced me to pick a better team from this, I have to say Penn State ONLY because Syracuse is from a power conference school. This also implies that if Syracuse was to play Western Kentucky, then the Orangemen should win. But that’s theory. So after three games, I might have both Alabama and Penn State about dead even.

Game four: Alabama beats Arkansas AT Arkansas 49-14 while Penn State beats Temple at home 45-3.

I give Alabama the nod here because even though Arkansas is rebuilding, it is still a conference game and Alabama had to win that away from home. Penn State has a home game against Temple…even I could win that game if I had some friends come over and suit up. So I give the nod to Alabama after four games.

Game five: Alabama slaps #3 Georgia in their face, in the Bulldogs’ home 41-30 while Penn State beats #22 Illinois 38-24 at home.

Both quality wins to be sure, but there is no denying that to beat a then high ranked team in their house is much better than beating a lower ranked team while at home. That is not to take anything away from Penn State, it’s just that Alabama’s win was clearly more impressive. Give a strong nod to Alabama.

Game six: Alabama escapes Kentucky 17-14 at home while Penn State travels to Purdue and win 20-6.

Two key conference games, but different looks on it. Sure, Alabama won, but it was close to a team many thought was overachieving with a soft schedule. You could justify it by saying it was a letdown after the big win at Georgia. Penn State wins a game against a mid-card team in Purdue, but a conference game nevertheless. I’d like to say this one would be about even, but if forced to pick I would say PSU’s win is slightly better ONLY because it was an away game. But overall, I still have Alabama as the better team of the two.

Game seven: Alabama survives a home game vs. Ole Miss 24-20 while Penn State stomps on Wisconsin AT Wisconsin 48-7.

I know the Badgers ain’t what they were last year but this is still a big win for Penn State to beat a conference foe in their house by this much. Alabama has actually had a few games that were too close for call, and it could signal the actual strength of the team. Granted every conference game can be tough, but beating Ole Miss by 4 points in your house does not compare to crushing a conference foe known for winning by over 40 points. Huge nod to Penn State for this week, and it draws the two teams even to me.

Now we know Alabama has not played an 8th game yet, but Penn State has, defeating Michigan at home 46-17. This win, even against a rebuilding conference foe, is a strong indication of how well Penn State is playing. If I give credit to Alabama for beating a rebuilding Arkansas, I must give the same to PSU. So although with unbalanced games at this point, I might have Penn State ahead of Alabama with a slight nod.

But let’s look at the strength of schedule. Alabama’s foes are currently 24-25, with key teams being Georgia at 6-1 and Kentucky at 5-2. Penn State’s foes are currently 22-35 with strong teams being Illinois at 4-3 and Oregon State at 4-3. If you had to look at it this way, I might have to agree that Alabama is currently slightly better than Penn State, but not by a whole lot.

I think the game vs. Costal Carolina may hurt Penn State’s strength of schedule, but I guess I cannot argue about Alabama being #2. This does not mean it will end that way, because if Alabama loses any games, they will fall hard, and I just can’t see Alabama running the tables in the SEC AND winning the SEC Championship. In fact, it would not surprise me if they lost 2 games before the end of the season. The LSU game is their biggest, but they better not forget Tennessee or Auburn. Penn State has a huge game against Ohio State and one at the end of the season against Michigan State.

It’s not a cakewalk for either team, but if both finish out, and go perfect, you have to give the nod, however slight, to Alabama.