Monday, September 7, 2009

Cincinnati vs Rutgers: Aftermath

Cincinnati vs. Rutgers: Aftermath

Well, there goes that game, 47-15.…

I thought maybe Rutgers might not win, but I figured it would be much closer than that. I watch that game on ESPN and heard the guys talk about the lack of presence of quarterbacks…and how true they were.

It was said that if you have 2 Qbs, you have none, and if you have 3, then you still have none.

I watched Cincinnati march the ball up the field as if they owned Rutgers, and I wondered if this was going to be a blowout. The ease in which they moved the ball in passing made it look like Rutgers needed another 2 weeks in practice.

But I also saw some promise in the running game of Rutgers. Their first possession had them hold on to the ball and move it with great efficiency, and it almost made me think that maybe they got the spirit of Ray Rice back there. It certainly helped to have 5 returning linemen to help push the line.

But Rutger’s problem seemed to be quite…glaring. They had a problem with quarterbacks. It seemed quite obvious that they could not, and would not throw the ball. And then they brought in a second quarterback to run some kinda Wildcat offense. In fact, they KEPT running it to the point where all the Rutgers fans knew when that QB came in, they were running the same old play.

And when it came time to throw, it showed the weakness of not having a true starting QB. But in truth, you can’t fully blame the two senior quarterbacks, having only like 13 passes between them. That’s the problem of having a very good QB who holds the job until he graduates, it leaves very little practice for those who follow… and it showed.

I know people might think that if they third QB (Savage) had started, things would have been different…I doubt it. They might have gotten a few more points, but they still would have been blown out of the water by 3 touchdowns.

And give credit to Cincinnati, they have a pretty good QB with a nice story of never giving up. Pike played pretty well, which will probably get the Bearcats on the top 25 very soon. But was this win over Rutgers respectable…or expected.

I wondered about the quarterback position, which may well be a real problem, and Rutgers pulled the same thing last year, having problems proving their strength at home starting the season. They have work to do, but the season is still young. Cincinnati showed us some stuff, and following a 11-3 record seems to be quite legit. Perhaps this is the chosen one for the Big East, Heaven knows they need some hope to pick the conference up. But this is only week one….

Cincinnati vs Rutgers

Cincinnati vs. Rugters

Sounds like a good conference matchup to me.

In less than 2 hours I will be watching this game on ESPN, and I wanted to take a moment to reflect on who has the better chance of winning today. I heard talk about how Rutgers might be the team to beat in the Big East, but I also remember that Cincinnati had 11 wins last year…including a 13-10 victory over said Rutgers.

But what also is going to be important is the fact that no Big East team was ranked in the top 25...what a slap in the face to the conference! So today’s game will be a strong signal to the true power (or lack of) from the Big East. Let’s look at each team and see who may come out victorious:

Cincinnati finished last year 11-3, losing to Oklahoma, UCONN and Virginia Tech. Some may wonder the true strength of the Bearcats since the schedule seemed questionable, outside of Oklahoma. Playing Eastern Kentucky, Miami (OH), Akron and Marshall does not really make for a BCS powerhouse, but beating South Florida, West Virginia, Pittsburgh and Rutgers does count for something.

Returning many offensive weapons makes it easier to repeat the successes of last year, but the schedule this year may be more challenging. Only one conference foe in the first 5 games, this game is incredibly important for the Bearcats. They won’t see another conference foe until mid October, and with opponents like Oregon State and Fresno State on the schedule, they need to come out of this at BEST 3-2, maybe even 4-1. A loss here to Rutgers could make the conference spin out again, looking for a true leader.

When you consider that each of Cincinnati’s wins were on average about 8 to 9 points, it shows that they play close games…how easy can that change in one year with the same opponents. Cincinnati seems to have problems winning away games too, in fact, two of their three losses were…away. Add in the bowl game vs. VA Tech, and you see my point.

And of those wins, factor in a 2 point win over Akron, a 3 point win over West Virginia, an 8 point win over Louisville and a 5 point win over Hawaii…these are games that can easily turn on you, and playing Rutgers in their house could be problematic.

Rugters, on the other hand, won 8 games last year, after starting out 0-3 and was as bad as1-5 before they started to turn it around. Losing at home to Fresno State and UNC ended any BCS hopes early, and a loss to Navy at home crushed it. The Scarlet Knights also lose their veteran QB, and a few receivers, so there is a time for retooling for Rutgers. The claim is that with 13 starters returning (initially) there is a good chance for Rutgers to snatch the Big East crown. And coming off a 7 game winning streak, including wins over Connecticut, South Florida and NC State in a bowl does have an upswing.

Of all those wins, the Pittsburgh win seemed most impressive, winning away by 20 points at a score of 54-34. Many of the other wins seemed less than stellar, after all, beating Syracuse, Army and UCONN didn’t really convince many people of the power of a Scarlet Knight. And with Louisville having a terrible season, and ACC foe NC State not putting fear in many, some will question if Rutgers is really ready to take the crown.

But the conference itself may even out, as many question the strength of any team in the Big East…again, NO Big East team has been ranked, so the voters must believe that none of these teams is strong enough to contend for a serious BCS title. It almost seems that by default, somebody has to win the Big East. But it cannot be argued that Rutgers and Cincinnati are quality teams.

Rutgers indeed has the home field advantage, but one can quickly counter by saying that last year Rutgers started the season off with a home loss to Fresno State 24-7, then got thumped by UNC 44-12 in their own living room. This is a situation Rutgers cannot repeat, scoring only 19 points in the first two games. Looking at Rutger’s schedule, if they can get by Cincinnati, it is quite possible that this could be the banner year they once had a couple years ago with great running back Ray Rice.

IF (a big if) Rutgers can beat Cincinnati, their next few games include Howard, Florida International before a trip to Maryland. Three home games before they go on the road, then after Maryland they are home for Texas Southern and Pittsburgh, a team they beat away by 20...

You can see the possibilities here for Rutgers. Yes they lost to Cincinnati and West Virginia last year, but those were away games…this year they are home. IF Rutgers can get past Cincinnati, this could quite easily be a 9+ win season, maybe even 10, as the Scarlet Knights would become the heir apparent to the Big East.

So who wins? Home field advantage means so much to any college team, and you’d like to automatically favor Rutgers, but we saw how they lost their first 2 home games last year. And if they are looking past this game in hopes of a 10 win season, something that is quite possible, then they may fail their first test.

It’s like legendary wrestler Ric Flair once said, “in order to BE the man, you gotta BEAT the man”, and that “man”, is actually a Bearcat.

Cincinnati beat Rutgers by three, can they do the same in Rutger’s house? This one is really close to me, and I personally like both teams, but without the leadership at the quarterback position, I just have to favor Cincinnati by a slim margin. One possession might make the difference…maybe even one point.

Miami vs Florida State

Miami vs. #18 Florida State

You know, several years ago this would have been THE game to watch… now, it’s THE only game on tv tonight, after the afternoon game of Cincinnati and Rutgers.

Two once very storied programs, giving us great NFL stars such as Deon Sanders and Michael Irving, Charlie Ward and Vinny Testaverde, now we have two schools struggling to not only reclaim some past glory, but a conference as well.

But to me, the ACC has done fairly well for itself. Last year 10 out of 12 teams in the ACC finished with 6 wins or more. Only Duke and Virginia failed to do so. This means that the conference is competitive, regardless of what others say. Of all the power conferences, I believe the ACC is above the Big East, but under the other 4. But tonight’s matchup is going to pre-determine who will have a legit shot at the ACC crown. Already Virginia Tech has fallen (not really sure how they got such a high ranking anyway) so it is already up for grabs. Which Florida team will step forward?

For Miami, tonight’s matchup is incredibly important. You just can’t keep losing to your state rival, and last year winning seven games is not worth celebrating if you are the Hurricanes. Losing early to Florida last year can be overlooked, but dropping games to conference foes UNC AND Florida State did not look good. It also didn’t look good the way Miami lost the last three games of the season to Georgia Tech, NC State and California. Most will credit only one good win, that over Virginia Tech…but that was last year.

This year brings many challenges, including a new quarterback and a schedule that leaves no mercy. It is not out of the realms of possibility that Miami could be 0-4 before they see Florida A&M. Playing away against FSU, home against a good Georgia Tech team, away at VA Tech and home vs. Oklahoma could be more than the Hurricanes can take. The schedule still seems favorable enough to put Miami in post season, but a win vs. Florida State can really go a long way. A loss could set the table for a disappointing season.

For Florida State, a 9-4 season is decent, but still below expectations. Long have the Seminoles been the rulers of the ACC, now they are feared by no one in the conference. But this is still a team to consider for the ACC crown. Last year the Seminoles dismantled my beloved Catamounts by a score unmentionable, and then crushed another foe 46-7.

But it could be argued that money can’t buy you wins…although that isn’t true. Western Carolina and UTC made decent money getting their butts kicked by Florida State. But it didn’t really prepare FSU for the schedule, as they lost their first REAL game vs. Wake Forest 12-3. All those points scored in the first two games, and only 3 points when it really mattered.

Still, Florida State recovered and won 4 games in a row, until they ran into Georgia Tech in Atlanta, losing their second conference game. They would lose again to Boston College and once more to state rival Florida before finishing the season with a win over Wisconsin in a bowl game.

The only real blowout was against Florida, losing 45-15. The loss to Wake Forest was only by 9 points, the loss to Boston College by 10 and the loss to Georgia Tech, only 3 points. All four losses were to decent teams, it seemed that Florida State beat the teams they were supposed to beat. Still, it isn’t the standard of FSU.

With a returning QB and a host of other starters, some say Florida State can indeed be the team to beat, especially since they also beat Virginia Tech last year. The problem is that they have a key game vs. BYU next, and state rival South Florida this year. Not a lot of traveling for the Seminoles, outside of going to Boston College and BYU, all the other games are in the deep south, which could bring familiarity to the team. This could play in their favor, but you still have to win games.

With a quarterback that threw almost as many interceptions as touchdowns, this is still kinda hairy. Florida State at home always has a great crowd, yet three of their 4 losses came in Tallahassee. Miami’s wins on the road last year were against Texas A&M, Duke and Virginia…all three combined were 13-22...all losing records.

These clearly are not the glory days for either team, but as long as the ACC Title is on the line, you might as well go get it. A win for either team is obviously important, but I think Florida State might have a slight edge here…not by too much, but considering Miami has a new QB it could possibly get ugly. I think Florida State can win this by a touchdown, maybe even 10 points, but I wonder since FSU has dropped several home games last year…not a sign of a force in the ACC. Still, with Virginia Tech slipping, everything is up for grabs now.