Friday, September 18, 2009

Boise State vs Fresno State 3rd quarter

Boise State vs. Fresno State: before the end

Speedblog

Ok, a quick blog to get something off my chest about this game.

Currently Boise State is in a dogfight with Fresno State, with 3 minutes left in the 3rd quarter, leading 34-24, but by the time I finish blogging this, the score could be much closer.

Before this final comes out, I want to spotlight a key play that could have turned this game into Fresno State’s favor…the kickoff.

In the third quarter, if you were watching the game, Fresno State kicks the ball off to Boise State, and the player catches it in the end zone…and proceeds to come out..

And runs 102 yards into the end zone! Touchdown….maybe not.

There was a block in the back by Boise State, but there was also a facemask against Fresno State. With both penalties offsetting, you had a re-kick. Now, this is where I think Fresno State dropped the ball:

If you just kicked the ball to a guy who ran 102 yards, guess what…he is DOG tired! With Fresno State having to re kick, the guys calling the game on ESPN suggested not to kick to this guy again…I strongly disagree.

You kick DIRECTLY to him, because he is extremely tired. This creates a better chance for maybe a turnover for Fresno State. But as I was watching this with my brother, they decided to kick away to him, to the other guy. I quickly said to him, “that’s a terrible idea, because that guy is fresh”.

And Boise State proceeds with that guy to get a HUGE gain on the kick return, setting up another score. And now with the score 34-27, that plays big time on how the results will come out.

It just didn’t make sense to me why you would kick AWAY from a dead tired player into the hands of a fresh one. Would it not have made sense to challenge that same guy who ran across the entire field to do it again. With him being that tired, your chances of a turnover is greater than with a guy that didn’t run full speed, across the length of the field.

But that’s something they may have to live with.

Mark my words, if Fresno State loses by less than one possession, they will regret that unwise decision. With under 2 minutes left in the third quarter, I still think it may be a matter of time before Fresno State sputters with the offense. Well, with a whole quarter to go, we will see.

End of third quarter, Boise State up 34-27...and that unwise decision on that kickoff makes the difference. The full result of that has yet to be determined….

Can Tennessee Volunteers make a bowl this year?

Can Tennessee Volunteers make a bowl?

Well, did they LAST year?

The answer might require a little more thought, I mean, teams can get better from one year to the next…and they can also go backwards too….

So the question for the Volunteer fans is this: can Tennessee qualify for a bowl?

To get a good answer, we have to look at a few elements, including how they fared last year, who they play this year, and how they have done so far.

For any college football program in Division I, the number one objective is to first win the minimum number of games to qualify for a bowl. So the question first is, can Tennessee win six games?

To answer that, we have to first jump back a year. This is a team that won 5 games last year in the very tough SEC conference. The season started out with a loss to UCLA in California before a win over UAB to even the record to 1-1. A “respectable” loss to Florida at Rocky Top dropped them to 1-2, but with the hopes that maybe this team could compete in the SEC.

But losing to Auburn away sunk them further, and it didn’t help that Tennessee barely escaped Northern Illinois at home, 13-9. This once mighty team had a 2-3 record, and not very impressive.

Another road loss to Georgia and a home win over hapless Miss State ran the record to 3-4 before losing two conference games back-to-back, dropping games to Alabama and South Carolina, and not even scoring more than 10 points in either game.

Ugh.

A loss to Wyoming put Tennessee at 3-6, and no chance for post season. But oddly enough, THAT is when they put together a few wins, beating Vanderbilt away and Kentucky at home.

So…how does that change this year?

Beating Western Kentucky 63-10 proves nothing and almost smells like a first time coach trying to impose his will on the weak. Anybody can be a bully for a weekend….

So then the chance comes to put up or shut up against UCLA, a team that beat Tennessee on the West Coast last year…and as it turns out, nothing changed but the date on the calendar. The Volunteers lost by 3 last year to UCLA…lost by 4 this year in their own home.

So now this weekend they have to go to see about a Gator…and to eat some crow. There is no doubt that nobody is picking Tennessee to win, it would be a moral victory if they lose by less than 3 touchdowns, but with Lane Kiffin popping his chops, this might be more about taming a shrew than just a game.

So we can go ahead and put Tennessee at 1-2, right?

The Volunteers then have three straight home games against Ohio, who was 4-8 last year, then Auburn, who was 5-7 but beat Tennessee last year, and Georgia, who was 10-3, and spanked Tennessee last year.

I am willing to believe Tennessee can split the SEC home games, and win over Ohio, so I can see them coming out of this with a 3-3 record.

They then travel TO Alabama, then home for two more games (South Carolina and Memphis). I can’t see them beating Alabama, and I have doubts about South Carolina too, but it’s not impossible. So the Volunteers can come out of this either 5-4, or 4-5.

But playing Mississippi could be a problem, if they are as good as people think they are…personally I am not fully convinced, but I do think they are better than Tennessee. So with two games left in the season, Tennessee would, by my guesses, be struggling to qualify for a bowl, at either 5-5 or 4-6. If the latter, then the last two games are of HUGE importance.

As it turns out, it is a repeat of last year, playing Vanderbilt and Kentucky, the only difference is the location. Vandy at home, Kentucky away. Tennessee handily beat both teams last year…they might NEED to do so this year to get to a bowl.

So if the question is whether Tennessee can make it to a bowl, my answer is yes they can…but the margin for error is razor thin. If I give Tennessee the last two games, they would either finish 7-5 or 6-6...that is cutting it close.

Still, either way it is a step in the right direction since last year they were 5-7. But losing 4 out of 5 road games ain’t cool, perhaps that’s why they figured out how to give them only FOUR this year. With eight scheduled home games, you BETTER qualify for a bowl game, I can’t imagine how much money will be spent filling up Neyland Stadium.

We’ll get a true measure AFTER the Florida game, I think the Auburn game will tell us much more…heaven forbid if they lose BIG to Florida and then lose to Ohio…oh the agony.

We shall see…..

Georgia Tech vs Miami: Aftermath

Georgia Tech vs. Miami: Aftermath

Georgia Tech 17, Miami 33 Final

This was a pretty nice game to watch, one where there seemed to be more pressure on Miami to win than on Georgia Tech. I watched this game with the idea that maybe the winner here could be the favorite to win the ACC. While that is still possible, I am still not quite sure on that.

But what I am sure of is that the option that Georgia Tech runs may be quickly outdated. Remember that the coach came from Navy, and the option was common there. When he used it last year, it had marginal success, but is it possible that now the competition has adjusted to them?

To me, if you are going to run a triple option, then the quarterback has to have some legit threat to pass. We know from last year that this was not the case at all, as Josh Nesbitt had only two passing touchdowns, and five interceptions. We even saw this last week vs. Clemson, when the glaring problem of the triple option came evident. This does not seem to work against more quality teams and actually hurts when you’re down by more than 8 points.

But last night the game certainly looked like they were going to do a repeat of getting over 400 yards rushing against Miami. This was a revenge game for Miami, and also a very key game for several reasons. One, being embarrassed by Georgia Tech last year, two, in the midst of four very tough games, and three, the real possibility of their head coach’s job on the line.

Beating Florida State was crucial, but it was only the first of four big time games for the Hurricanes. They needed to win this game to make a solid statement for the ACC crown.

It was most important for Miami to stop the run… it’s what Georgia Tech lived by, and if they could stop that, it would force them to do what they are not good at…throwing the ball.

The first drive seemed to start out just like last year, with the Yellow Jackets moving the ball at will, but the Hurricanes managed to stop them from getting into the end zone, settling for a field goal. To Miami, this was a moral victory, even though they were down 3-0.

But the offence of Miami seemed to come alive with this new quarterback, Jacory Harris. I gotta tell ya, he looked like he knew the system every which way but loose. The Hurricanes moved the ball down the field and scored with a 40 yard pass, taking the lead at 7-3 by the end of the first quarter.

The plan for Miami seemed to be simple, if you contain Nesbitt and Dwyer, you contain the option. It seemed that the Hurricanes were willing to gamble that Georgia Tech could not throw the ball, because that was not their strength. However, the passing attack of Miami seemed to have the Yellow Jackets winded as they took a halftime lead of 17-3.

At this point, I believed Georgia Tech was half beaten, because to come back, they would either have to hope that Miami got lazy with the option, or would have to throw the ball. But Miami seemed dead set to stop the option at all costs, even if it meant being burnt on a few passing plays. Although there was some glimpses of the option working, it took some rare long passes for Georgia Tech to get back in. Still, near the end of the 3rd, quarter, the score was 31-14.

Then there was that odd safety penalty thing….

I am not quite sure what Coach Paul Johnson of Georgia Tech was so upset about here, and why it was directed at his kicker. GA Tech snaps the ball, it goes sailing over the kicker’s head into the end zone. The kid has only a couple of options; get rid of the ball or try to make something out of it. He decides to purposely kick it out the end zone, which is an automatic safety, rather than giving Miami superior field position or a touchdown should something crazy happens. Yet he is flagged for intentionally kicking the ball out, which still results in a safety.

Ok, fine. But why then was coach Johnson all hot at the kicker? Didn’t he do only what he had to do? It was quite likely it was going to be a safety anyway, if he had tried to be a hero and save the ball and try to kick it, it could have easily ended up inside the 10 or 5 yard line, almost guaranteeing Miami a touchdown or field goal. I just didn’t see what the kicker did wrong except save GA Tech some points.

So we go into the 4th quarter, and I see something else…early in the 4th, Miami inside the GA Tech 10 yard line, and Coach Randy Shannon opts to go for a field goal…

WHY?

With the score being 33-10 early in the 4th, I would not think it would be running up the score to try for one more touchdown. Yet I think Shannon, to his credit, was concerned about that, and even with his team inside the 10, he takes a penalty to back up and try for a field goal…and misses.

The problem here that Miami might need to fix is when you are beating a team, make sure you have the BEAT before you show mercy. The problem with this is that once you take your foot off the pedal, sometimes it is hard to find it again. And by missing that field goal, you offer the ball back to Georgia Tech with better field position, and you give them the slightest gleam of hope.

This is something Georgia Tech learned last week against Clemson, and it almost cost them the game. But now with a little light, the Yellow Jackets do the rare thing and get the passing game going, and nets a touchdown. Now the score is 33-17 with 10 minutes left…and Georgia Tech has some hope.

The onside kick does not work, but they would not have tried it unless they thought there was a chance they could come back. But the defense holds and Miami gets the ball back, but misses a second field goal…this gives Georgia Tech every thought that they just might make a game of it.

But Georgia Tech was contained by the Hurricanes, as Nesbitt could not get anything going, passing or running, and it choked any hope of them coming back. End the end, Miami wins…but we see that they have two problems. One, the kicking game, and two, the lack of a “killer instinct”.

This might come back to haunt them, especially with games vs. Virginia Tech and Oklahoma back to back. Is the “U” back…I am not completely convinced, but I like what I see.

As for Georgia Tech, I think they have been exposed and I think average teams will be able to set up a counter for that option, forcing Nesbitt to lean on his weakness, that of throwing. A bad team can’t stop Georgia Tech, but a decent team can seriously challenge them. Some people might think this option stuff is awesome, but without a good quarterback who can throw the ball, it makes them too one dimensional. At this rate, I can’t see 9 wins for them…maybe 7.

But we shall see as the season goes on…

Michael Crabtree being Crabby!

Michael Crabtree being Crabby!

“Oh greed, from which pit of hell cometh thou?”

I don’t get this folks, SOMEBODY tell me what I am missing here!

The last few years I was fortunate enough to watch some Texas Tech games on television and loved how these guys played. We were almost guaranteed many points every game, and it was most exciting. This high scoring team had a great quarterback, and also a great receiver, showcased last year when Texas Tech beat Texas in a thriller.

(R.I.P MJ)

One of the stars was Michael Crabtree, a sure-fire first round pick in the NFL draft. I realized that whoever picked this guy would certainly be in a good position to build a good offense, even with a decent quarterback.

So the NFL Draft comes around, and Michael Crabtree is picked #10 by the San Francisco 49ers…ok, not exactly the best team in the NFL at the moment, but to be sure there is great promise with what they have there. Seems like a no brainer; Crabtree signs, he gets on the team, works out and bingo, the 49ers have a new weapon that could just make the difference in them getting to the playoffs.

Problem.

That rare disease called Divamentia has descended on Michael Crabtree, where he thinks that he should be paid even more than the offer.

Let’s see…the 49ers are offering him about $20,000,000 over a 5 year period, with about $16,000,000 guaranteed. He’d be making about $4 million a year. He wants MORE money, comparable to the higher picks.

Comparable to what?

Darrius Heyward-Bey was picked #7 in the draft, the only other receiver ahead of Crabtree. He signed a 5 year deal guaranteeing him at least $23 million, but can make over $38 million.

Eugene Monroe was picked #8, and will get about $35 million, with about $19 million guaranteed. So what in the world is Crabbytree looking for?

If you looked at the 2009 draft, and what the players all signed for (except Crabtree) you can see a progressive change from the first pick on down. Generally speaking, the higher you are drafted, the more money you can be signed for, over a 4-6 year deal. Most players signed for 5 years, a few signed for 4 or 6.

The progression of salaries and guaranteed contracts goes lower as the picks go lower. For example, Matthew Stafford was the #1 pick, and signed with the Lions for 6 years, $72 million with almost $42 million guaranteed. The second pick was Jason Smith, who signed for the St. Louis Rams for 5 years, almost $62 million with $33 million guaranteed.

From there it decreases in salary as the pick get lower. One exception is Andre Smith, who signed with the Bengals for only 4 years, $26 million ,but $21 million of that guaranteed. From there the contract gets progressively lower.

If you look at the lower picks under Crabtree, you see that the #12 pick was Knowshon Moreno was picked by Denver for 5 years, $23 million, with $13 million of that guaranteed. Fellow receiver Jeremy Maclin was selected #19, and his contract was for 5 years, almost $15 million, with just over $9 million guaranteed.

You get the idea? The higher you are picked, the more money you can get, the lower you are picked, the less money you will sign for. If we were to use some kinda math at what Michael Crabtree should get since he was picked #10, it might be something along maybe $21 or $22 million, with about $16 million guaranteed…there abouts.

But that’s not enough. Crabtree wants similar money to what Darrius Heyward-Bey makes, which is about $15 million MORE than the contract that Crabtree has on the table, and about another 8 or 9 million guaranteed.

He wants #7 money when he was NOT the #7 pick….what makes this dude think he deserves that kind of money?

And the problem is that he looks at Brandon Marshall with the Broncos throw a temper tantrum and get what he wants, he sees Terrell Owens as “Mouth Almighty” and gets what he wants, and thinks that every receiver has to be the center of the universe. So Crabtree has already missed every bit of training camp, and the season has already started…he is now of no use to the 49ers.

And there is the thought of reentering the draft next year for a higher pick… a foolish gamble if you ask me.

Guys like this make me wish that he gets picked MUCH later in the first round, preferably the second round, so he can dream about those big dollars he left on the table. I realize this is a business, but the business wanted to award him $16 million guaranteed! That would have made him the 10th highest paid rookie of the draft…isn’t that the way it is supposed to work?

With the length of contract and the overall salary, it gets a little sketchy, but maybe his argument was that there was such a dropoff from the #9 pick, B.J. Raji, picked by the Packers for 5 years, $28 million with $18 guaranteed to his $20 million, $16 million guaranteed. The difference of $8 million dollars might have been what upset him…and his agent.

If the 49ers make a deal with him, (and I hope they don’t), they might offer a few million more, maybe give him a $24 or $25 million dollar deal, maybe $17 million guaranteed, but how can they go any higher? He does not deserve it, he has not shown anything on the field, and he is suffering from Divamentia…somebody help the poor guy!

A sad story to be sure…where $20 million dollars just doesn’t buy what it used to…maybe he ought to take a part time job at Wal-Mart…I am sure they got one in San Francisco….