Can Tennessee Volunteers make a bowl this year?

Can Tennessee Volunteers make a bowl?

Well, did they LAST year?

The answer might require a little more thought, I mean, teams can get better from one year to the next…and they can also go backwards too….

So the question for the Volunteer fans is this: can Tennessee qualify for a bowl?

To get a good answer, we have to look at a few elements, including how they fared last year, who they play this year, and how they have done so far.

For any college football program in Division I, the number one objective is to first win the minimum number of games to qualify for a bowl. So the question first is, can Tennessee win six games?

To answer that, we have to first jump back a year. This is a team that won 5 games last year in the very tough SEC conference. The season started out with a loss to UCLA in California before a win over UAB to even the record to 1-1. A “respectable” loss to Florida at Rocky Top dropped them to 1-2, but with the hopes that maybe this team could compete in the SEC.

But losing to Auburn away sunk them further, and it didn’t help that Tennessee barely escaped Northern Illinois at home, 13-9. This once mighty team had a 2-3 record, and not very impressive.

Another road loss to Georgia and a home win over hapless Miss State ran the record to 3-4 before losing two conference games back-to-back, dropping games to Alabama and South Carolina, and not even scoring more than 10 points in either game.

Ugh.

A loss to Wyoming put Tennessee at 3-6, and no chance for post season. But oddly enough, THAT is when they put together a few wins, beating Vanderbilt away and Kentucky at home.

So…how does that change this year?

Beating Western Kentucky 63-10 proves nothing and almost smells like a first time coach trying to impose his will on the weak. Anybody can be a bully for a weekend….

So then the chance comes to put up or shut up against UCLA, a team that beat Tennessee on the West Coast last year…and as it turns out, nothing changed but the date on the calendar. The Volunteers lost by 3 last year to UCLA…lost by 4 this year in their own home.

So now this weekend they have to go to see about a Gator…and to eat some crow. There is no doubt that nobody is picking Tennessee to win, it would be a moral victory if they lose by less than 3 touchdowns, but with Lane Kiffin popping his chops, this might be more about taming a shrew than just a game.

So we can go ahead and put Tennessee at 1-2, right?

The Volunteers then have three straight home games against Ohio, who was 4-8 last year, then Auburn, who was 5-7 but beat Tennessee last year, and Georgia, who was 10-3, and spanked Tennessee last year.

I am willing to believe Tennessee can split the SEC home games, and win over Ohio, so I can see them coming out of this with a 3-3 record.

They then travel TO Alabama, then home for two more games (South Carolina and Memphis). I can’t see them beating Alabama, and I have doubts about South Carolina too, but it’s not impossible. So the Volunteers can come out of this either 5-4, or 4-5.

But playing Mississippi could be a problem, if they are as good as people think they are…personally I am not fully convinced, but I do think they are better than Tennessee. So with two games left in the season, Tennessee would, by my guesses, be struggling to qualify for a bowl, at either 5-5 or 4-6. If the latter, then the last two games are of HUGE importance.

As it turns out, it is a repeat of last year, playing Vanderbilt and Kentucky, the only difference is the location. Vandy at home, Kentucky away. Tennessee handily beat both teams last year…they might NEED to do so this year to get to a bowl.

So if the question is whether Tennessee can make it to a bowl, my answer is yes they can…but the margin for error is razor thin. If I give Tennessee the last two games, they would either finish 7-5 or 6-6...that is cutting it close.

Still, either way it is a step in the right direction since last year they were 5-7. But losing 4 out of 5 road games ain’t cool, perhaps that’s why they figured out how to give them only FOUR this year. With eight scheduled home games, you BETTER qualify for a bowl game, I can’t imagine how much money will be spent filling up Neyland Stadium.

We’ll get a true measure AFTER the Florida game, I think the Auburn game will tell us much more…heaven forbid if they lose BIG to Florida and then lose to Ohio…oh the agony.

We shall see…..