Wednesday, September 24, 2008

College Football's Basement Teams

College Football’s Basement Teams

I know it is still very early to say this, but after a few weeks of the 2008 college football season, it is worth noting that at this very moment, Wednesday, September 24th, 2008, there are 8 winless teams in Division 1A. Now that is to be expected so early in the season, but some of the names are kinda head-scratching.

There are, if I am correct, 27 teams that are perfect, with no losses, and there are 8 winless teams. Even the most die-hard fans don’t want anybody to finish 0-11, right? So which teams have a chance of turning their season around, and which ones will struggle just to get out of the basement? Let’s take a look:

The Sun Belt has 2 teams that are 0-3; Florida International and North Texas. We all know that this isn’t one of the power conferences, but we all remember Troy in how they tested an angry Ohio State.

The Golden Panthers of Florida International won ONLY one game last year, against North Texas, the last game of the year. It was a convincing win too, maybe something they can build on. The problem is that the other losses were big, meaning they have a lot of work to do. Their closest loss was against Arkansas State by only 3 points, but many of their games were, as the saying goes…beat downs.

It may be difficult for them to win more than 3 games, but consider that their first few games were very tough, it is possible that it will prepare them for the Sun Belt conference…but you know what they say about pressure…it makes diamonds… and burst pipes…diamonds and Golden Panthers seem to go together…but somehow I think they may be in for a two win season.

Their nemesis, North Texas, is also 0-3, and they are coming off 2 wins last year. The odd thing about North Texas is that they seem to be able to score a heck of a lot of points. Problem is, they give up more than they get. If they can fine-tune the defense just a bit, that could make the difference in a couple of games. Most of their losses were by more than 10 points, so there clearly is work to do, but in conference play, there is always a chance for North Texas to steal a couple of wins…not much more than that though.

In the Mid-American, Ohio sits alone in the basement at 0-4. This was a team that went 6-6 last year. Lots of times when you look at lesser conferences (no offense to those outside the power conferences), you have to look at the first 3 or 4 games, because for many of these teams, they are the “cupcake” games for the better schools. Ohio last year played Virginia Tech and lost 28-7. This year they played Ohio State and Northwestern, and as of this moment, Northwestern is undefeated. So you have to apply a little grace with their current 0-4 record.

But that grace is melting with every loss they get. I actually pull for this team because Frank Solich is there, and I remember how terrible Nebraska treated him when they could not get to the National Championship every year (as if there are only 2 teams in Division I). To be sure, this team will not go 0-11 and I think they have a good shot at winning at least 4 or 5 games. They’d have to sweep to get a bowl, which I think might be a stretch, but they are just as good as most teams in the conference.

San Diego State is currently 0-3 in the Mountain West, trying to build off that 4-8 record last year. The problem is they lost to some VERY suspect teams, and there are currently 3 undefeated teams in their conference (Utah, BYU, TCU) as well as the 3-1 Air Force. You can almost count 4 more losses to the Aztecs.

They are probably assured of NO chance of a bowl, because winning 6 games will be close to impossible, and you have to wonder if they can match their wins from last year. Nobody wants to slide backwards, but San Diego State could be headed for that mark. I don’t see them losing every game, but their three wins was by an average of about 4 points. It’s going to be a long season….for a 3 win team.

In Conference USA, the only winless team is UTEP at 0-3. This in a conference where 9 of the 12 teams do not have a winning record at the moment. So there obviously is hope. UTEP won 4 games last year, but they lost the last 6 games…meaning they are on a 9 game losing streak. Not good.

I guess the signs were there when they won 3 of their 4 games by 8 total points. Close wins are nice, but there were not many convincing wins unless you count Texas Southern (52-12). UTEP can score, at least they did last year, but defense is like swiss cheese. It might be hard for the Miners to match their wins from last year, but in this conference, there is a chance they could…but not much better.

Of the Independents, Army is 0-3, and I have watched a few of their games. To me it just seems like the only teams they are going to beat are those who can’t stop the run or those who run options like they do. The problem with the option is that you are almost throwing away any plays that involve passing. A team that lives by the option will have an early death when the score gets to more than 2 or 3 touchdowns. I’ve seen Army play behind, knowing they there was no way they were going to catch up. This style of play, without some serious passing, just does not seem to work.

Now, they did get 3 wins last year, and it is possible they can match that. But one of their wins last year was to Temple, and they didn’t get the win this year. But all of their losses were big, meaning by at least 8 points or more. When you’re down by more than a touchdown, especially in the 4th quarter, running the option is NOT an option.

It’s gonna be tough for Army this year, maybe they can find 2 wins…I wish they could get more…

What’s up with Rutgers? Wasn’t this the darling of the Big East last year? Going to a bowl and a regular season of 8-5 seemed to promise a big jump in 2008, but was it a one-trick pony? With their star back gone (Rice) things seem to be different. Either Rutgers was just a “midcard” team or maybe they had too much swagger. Four of their losses are from conference foes, so they have to see them again this year and hope to return the favor.

Rutgers is in a crisis now, because there are many people that are expecting big things from the Scarlet Knights, but with an 0-3 start, things look very shaky. They need to get to that 6-win plateau to at least qualify for a bowl, meaning they need to get on a big winning streak. Normally I might say this is impossible, but the Big East has been showing signs of weakness this year, something Rutgers needs to take advantage of. West Virginia has fallen hard, Louisville has problems, Pittsburgh is stumbling and Uconn is still untested. If ever there is a chance to salvage a season, that time is now.

But will Rutgers go to a bowl? I think they will slip this year to 5 wins, maybe six, but that may be stretching it.

And then we come to Washington.

And DON’T get me started on the celebration call…I can write 10 pages on the stupidity of the NCAA to punish emotion.

Yet it does not change the fact that Washington has 3 losses. Never mind that they came to Oregon, BYU and Oklahoma, they are still three losses. If you are going to lose 3 games, there is no honor lost in losing to these foes, right?

Wrong.

Unfortunately Washington is in the basement. However, I have no problem believing that Washington will rebound, after going through a very tough 3 games. BYU could go undefeated, as well as Oklahoma, and Oregon isn’t half bad. So hopefully Washington has put themselves in a position to win 5 games or more. They won 4 last year, and it is possible to win 5 or 6. Remember, this is the same team that lost by only 3 points to USC and by 7 points to Hawaii. Of all the basement teams, this seems like the one with the MOST promise…and maybe the only one with a real chance of getting to a 6 win season.

It’s gonna be tough, and I actually think they will get 5 wins, but there is certainly great promise here.

Anyway, those are the basement teams for now. Hopefully nobody goes 0-11, but these 8 teams need to focus on getting off that egg, and picking up some wins. Let’s see if they do.