Wednesday, December 10, 2008

2008 St. Petersburg Bowl

2008 St. Petersburg Bowl

Yeah, I know this has a longer name, but I am getting a bit sick of these sponsors and these long names. So I am just calling it the St. Petersburg Bowl, one of several bowl games played in the state of Florida.

It’s also another regional bowl, featuring teams close to the area. In this case, we have from the Big East, South Florida, and from Conference USA, Memphis. If you had to rank the bowls, this one is kinda where it is, near the bottom. If you were actually ran the bowls from the least desired up to the BCS bowls and the national championship, this bowl would be somewhere near the bottom. Why do I say that?

This bowl features a team from Conference USA that is 6-6, barely qualifying for a bowl, and South Florida with a 7-5 record and having a disappointing season. It was just last year where they were ranked almost the top team in the nation, and fell from grace. Even this year there was promise, but it never materialized.

But this is a nice matchup. Let’s look at both teams’ resume.

Memphis: As we said earlier, a 6-6 record, barely qualifying for a bowl in the soft Conference USA. Yeah, we know ECU beat West Virginia and Virginia Tech, but Memphis didn’t.

There is a strange pattern with this team, going by 3, 2 and 1. Memphis started out the season losing three straight, to Mississippi, Rice and Marshall. They then WON three games straight, over teams like Nicholls State, Arkansas State and UAB.

They then LOST two games in a row to Louisville and ECU, before switching around and winning two games over Southern Miss and SMU. It just seems like it was right for this team to then lose to Central Florida and win their final game vs. Tulane. Perhaps the best win of the year was against Southern Mississippi, who also finished 6-6.

Many will argue that the strength of schedule was incredibly low, and they have no real quality wins in the entire year. Very few teams on Memphis’ schedule will see post season, which makes the Tigers seem like a longshot to win this bowl.

So let’s look at South Florida’s resume:

South Florida started out like a house on fire, beating everybody in their way. Wins over Tennessee-Martin, then Central Florida, and the big win over ranked Kansas had the Bulls on their way. Knocking of Florida International and then NC State seemed to be good wins as they ran the record to 5-0. They looked like the Big East Champs after a month and a half.

Then Pittsburgh came over and ended the dream. South Florida tried to recover by knocking off basement-dwelling Syracuse, but it was never the same. They would then lose THREE straight, losing to Louisville, Cincinnati and Rutgers, before finding themselves in time to beat Connecticut before losing to West Virginia. What started out so great didn’t end so well, but they still qualified for a bowl.

Seven teams on South Florida’s schedule will be in a bowl, of those, South Florida beat 3 of them. This is still a good team, but they folded much like they did last year. They started out great, and shook the college world, then fell hard from grace.

Of these two teams, I think South Florida has a very strong upside and should be the easy favorite to win this one, especially in their home state. The Bulls have played and beaten quality teams. Consider that the best team Memphis beat was a 6-6 Southern Miss, while South Florida beat Kansas and once ranked Connecticut. To me it looks like a lop-sided game.

But Memphis has this thing about beating teams with “south” in them. They beat Southern Miss and SMU (Southern Methodist U), so maybe South Florida has their work cut out for them….

Hey, don’t laugh, didn’t ECU beat VIRGINIA Tech and West VIRGINIA? I mean, there’s some funny stuff going on here. But we will see when they play December 20th. Big East vs. Conference USA, an interesting matchup.

2008 New Mexico Bowl

2008 New Mexico Bowl

To many folks on the East Coast, this game is a question mark. We all heard of the “East Coast Bias” meaning that many on the eastern part of the US rarely hear about stuff on the west coast. Time zones and conference affiliations play a part in that.

So now you’ve got the 2008 New Mexico Bowl, played in…where else, Albuquerque, New Mexico, featuring Colorado State and Fresno State. Colorado State comes in as lowest Mountain West Conference team eligible for a bowl, while Fresno State limps in as the 5th out of 6 eligible teams out of the WAC. This game will be the second of 4 bowls on December 20th, and follows the Eaglebank Bowl. So, what do we know about these two teams, and who is favored?

From the MWC we have Colorado State, coming in at 6-6. This year has been pretty tough for the Rams, starting with the state rival loss to Colorado. The Rams were able to right the ship for a moment, beating Sacramento State and Houston, before losing to California in an away game. Interesting set, 2 wins at home, two losses away.

A third win at home vs. UNLV would be the last they would see for awhile, with big games vs. ranked foes TCU and Utah, losing both of those. There was a brief air of hope when they defeated San Diego State, but was quickly dashed when they faced and lost to BYU and then Air Force.

At 4-6, Colorado State needed to win their last two games just to qualify for a bowl, and they were able to do just that with wins over New Mexico and Wyoming, putting themselves in a position to get to the bowl they now have.

While there are several teams on Colorado State’s schedule that will see bowls and have been ranked, only Houston lost to Colorado State. They defeated the 4 worst teams in the conference, along with said Houston and Sacramento State. Many will severely question the strength of this team in the upcoming bowl.

But what of Fresno State?

The Bulldogs come in 7-5, and having a very tough season as well. Many thought this would be one of the two best teams out of the WAC. Scheduling Rutgers and Wisconsin seemed to be very tough games to start the season, and all seemed well when they traveled across the country to beat Rutgers. But a home loss to then top ranked Wisconsin raised an eyebrow or two. But that was seen to be a hard game to win anyway, I mean, Wisconsin seemed to be poised to fight for the Big 10 Championship.

Who knew?

Fresno State built some ground by beating Toledo and UCLA, both away. This was quickly becoming a team people were talking about. That loss to Wisconsin was only by 3 points, they could easily be 4-0 and possibly ranked. But then came the overtime loss to Hawaii, which cut the Bulldogs out of any BCS chats. They would have to try to shoot for lower goals with 2 losses.

With two games versus basement teams in Utah State and Idaho, the record improved to 5-2 and it seemed Fresno State was making a comeback, until the two game slide to Louisiana Tech and Nevada. Two conference losses punched a hole in their hearts, and was making it hard for the Bulldogs to even qualify for a bowl. Now at 5-4, the Bulldogs had to concentrate on just making a bowl…any bowl.

During the course of the year, many were building the Fresno State vs. Boise State as the “BIG” game, but with Fresno State struggling to just make it to a bowl, and Boise State trying to get in the BCS, they were worlds apart. Even though Fresno State beat New Mexico State and San Jose State, these were two teams at the bottom of the conference. Sure, Fresno State was now qualified for a bowl, but could they justify the season with a win over highly ranked Boise State?

Nope. They lost 61-10.

So Fresno State plays two teams that have been ranked sometime this year, and lost to them both. Only one team, Rutgers, will see post season of the teams Fresno State has played. This spells out a team that just didn’t have it this year.

And so you have the New Mexico Bowl, with two teams that have had a rough season, and both probably lucky to even BE in a bowl. Yet with all the difficulties they have had, this is still a time of hope. This is a bowl where you get to make one more statement, either that of success or failure. Nobody wants to go out a loser, so you can believe both Colorado State and Fresno State will bring their best to this game. If there were several other games on at the same time, I MIGHT not watch this. Not out of disrespect, but because there would likely be a better game on. But unless the Eaglebank Bowl goes too long, this bowl will be the only one on. I will watch it and enjoy it.

Good luck Fresno State and Colorado State.

2008 Eaglebank Bowl

2008 Eaglebank Bowl

One of the first bowls of the season features a game with a team that was slated long ago for this bowl. The Eaglebank Bowl was one of just a couple of games where half of the matchup was already decided…if they qualified for a bowl.

That team was Navy. The only other bowl with a specific name on it would have been any bowl in the state of Hawaii, because you KNOW the home team would have been invited unless they were going to a greater bowl.

So we have Navy vs. an ACC foe in Wake Forest. Hmm, interesting. Anyway, let’s look at these two teams, and who may win.

Wake Forest comes in off the strength of the ACC schedule, but at the same time, underachieving in the season that could have been. Wake Forest won big in their first game vs. Baylor, then knocked off Mississippi… interesting, an ACC team beating a Big 12 and SEC team back to back…

But I digress…

When Wake Forest knocked off then ranked Florida State, people started singing hymns about the Demon Deacons. But there seemed to be questions about the offence of Wake Forest.

Then comes Navy, beating the Deacons in their home 24-17. YEP, these two teams have already met before. So I guess you wonder why they would match up a bowl of two teams that have already played? Let’s think about that later.

After Wake Forest defeats a troubled Clemson, they lose two straight away games before rebounding against Duke. Another home game win vs. Virginia before losing again on the road to NC State. Tack on one more loss to Boston College before Wake Forest finds themselves again to beat Vanderbilt at the end of the season.

I think 5 of those teams had been ranked during the course of the year, and to their credit, Wake Forest is 3-2 against those teams. Other than Baylor, Duke and Virginia, I think all those other teams are in bowl season too. This proved to be a tough schedule for Wake Forest, and to come out of it 7-5 is actually quite impressive.

Now, for Navy…

This team has no conference to call home, so we are going off the strength of an independent schedule. One of only 4 independent teams in the nation, Navy started off with a win vs. Towson before losing two in a row to Ball State and Duke….

You lost to DUKE?????

Both games were away games, and we now know that Ball State turned out to be pretty good this year. But losing to Duke in football…wow. This put Navy behind the curve to qualify for their own bowl unless they turned things around. And turn around they did.

Their next 3 games were very tough, and yet, Navy won all three. Beating Rutgers when they were down was opportunistic, but knocking off ranked Wake Forest….

Wake Forest? Isn’t that who they are playing in a bowl…

And a third win against Air Force put the Midshipmen at 4-2, and looking pretty good. Then comes ranked Pittsburgh to hand Navy their 3rd loss of the year. I remember personally blogging about whether this team could actually make the bowl, because there were some concerns.

With 5 games left, only Notre Dame seemed to poise any problems, even though they were having major issues (ha!). Navy won their next two games vs. SMU and Temple, which should have been the case anyway. While they had every opportunity to beat Notre Dame, they slipped, losing that one.

The Midshipmen rebounded by not only beating, but shutting out their last two opponents (Northern Illinois and Army).

Six teams on the Navy schedule should see a bowl, and of those six, Navy split it 3-3. A decent schedule, with a few “cupcakes” mixed in.

So, who wins, and why make this matchup anyway?

I think Wake Forest has a good chance to win this game with great defense, but has had a very hard time with the “O”. It will be interesting to see how Navy’s offence is going to match up against a very stout Wake Forest team. On merit of a very competitive conference, I believe Wake Forest has a pretty good chance of evening the score on Navy, but the last game showed who was better…did Wake Forest learn from that?

Now, why make this matchup? Navy certainly had other teams they could have played, right? This could be dangerous because a Navy team that has already beaten Wake Forest could be misled to think that it could be done twice in the same year. That could spell problems.

Why pick Wake Forest? Well, we know that this bowl will be in Washington DC, and if you factor in that bowls are looking for the closest teams to make traveling minimal, then you’d have to keep it mainly in the Maryland, Virginia and NC area. You don’t want teams traveling too far, and you have to ensure that tickets can be sold. Right of the top of my head, you’d have teams like Virginia Tech, Maryland, ECU, UNC and NC State on that list. Well, we know Virginia Tech was not available, neither UNC. With ECU being the Conference USA Champs, they have bigger aspirations. So between the remaining 3 ACC teams, I supposed it was based on where those teams or schools selected. Seems kinda odd to go to a bowl vs. a team you have already played, but hey, if that is what Wake Forest and Navy wants, so be it.

I think that Wake Forest will come looking for revenge, and if Navy isn’t careful, they will get it. But I am still not convinced of Wake’s offense, which may prove fatal when they fall behind. I will give it to Navy, 28-17.