Wednesday, December 2, 2009

2010 BCS Bowls

2010 BCS Bowls projections

I know I wrote on this earlier, but that was based on what was happening then… and oddly, after a week or so, not too much has changed, but that will DEFINIATELY change this weekend. So let’s talk on this for a bit.

Now, for those that don’t quite understand all about the BCS, I am right there with ya, but we can at least talk on some theories. I am not saying I know it all, but I am a big fan of college football, so we are in the same boat.

Now, to begin, let’s remember that there are FIVE bowls in the BCS. One is the National Championship, which takes the top two teams in the nation by BCS scores, and leaves the other four to at large teams, with some exceptions. We will get to that in a moment.

What is important to also know is the ORDER of the bowls for 2010, because the order determines who picks first. The first order is always the National Championship, but after that it differs. This year, 2010, the order is Orange Bowl, Fiesta Bowl and Sugar Bowl.

Notice something missing? Rose Bowl? That’s because the Rose Bowl isn’t interested in the BCS to mix their “tradition” with the others, they want to keep their Pac-10 and Big 10 rival cemented. So they are not “in the mix”, although they really are.

So, if we were to look at who was going to the BCS, and the other major bowls, lets first determine, at this very moment, who the top 12 teams are…because that is important:

In order, they are: Florida, Alabama, Texas, TCU, Cincinnati, Boise State and Georgia Tech. Following them are LSU, USC, Iowa, Ohio State and Pittsburgh. And for good measure, we throw in the next three, being Oregon, Miami and Houston.

From this list we can put together our theory about who will be going where. Now, even though we are using theory, we still have to make a slight assumption, one I will get to in a sec.

So let’s start first with the National Championship…who is going to the BCS Championship?

The natural assumption is to take the #1 and #2 teams, in this case being Florida and Alabama…but right off the bat this isn’t accurate. The problem is that both teams are from the SEC, and we all know that they must play each other in the SEC Championship… one team will lose, and fall out.

For the sake of argument let us assume that Florida wins, just the assumption that #1 beats #2. IF we go with that, then we can project Florida in the National Championship against the #3 team, Texas. Now, I know Texas still has to play in their Big 12 Championship just as Florida and Alabama must play in their conference championship but we are just going with the idea that those two SEC teams must eliminate one from the conversation. So the BCS Championship in theory would be Florida and Texas.

Now, after that, things get a little hairy.

Once the National Championship has been determined, a lot of clauses kick in, one being the Rose Bowl. The Rose Bowl gets to select their teams, and because they stick with their tradition, they will take the Pac-10 and Big 10 champions. But this can be misleading.

On the BCS rankings, they have Iowa as the best Big 10 team…but it is Ohio State that will be going to the Rose Bowl, which in theory knocks out the #10 team for the #11 team. This already creates some chaos because the idea in the BCS bowls was to get the top 10 teams in, and this has already been disrupted.

So Ohio State is in, bumping out Iowa. What about the Pac-10? Oregon finishes as the best team in the Pac-10, but USC is ranked at #9, while Oregon is ranked #13... Oh my.

So the Rose Bowl has, in theory, already screwed up the system, because two of the top 10 teams in the nation are snubbed initially for a BCS bowl. So let’s recap a bit:

BCS Championship #1 Florida vs. #3 Texas

Rose Bowl #11 Ohio State vs. #13 Oregon.

Hmm, sounds odd already.

Now, after those two bowls, we can get into the order of selections. Remember, this year the order is Orange, Fiesta and Sugar. So the Orange Bowl gets to select who they want in their bowl in Florida.

Now, just as the Rose Bowl must take the champions of the Pac-10 and Big-10, there are other contracts that must be upheld. The Orange Bowl has a contract with the ACC, meaning they MUST take the ACC Champion unless they are in the National Championship. Since neither Florida or Texas is an ACC team, that means they must take whoever wins the ACC Championship…which at this moment would be either Georgia Tech or Clemson.

Now this is interesting because even though Georgia Tech is ranked #7, Clemson is not on that top 15 list. It would be very embarrassing if a team NOT in the top 15 goes to a BCS bowl. For sake of argument, let us assume that the higher ranked team would win, in this case, Georgia Tech (just like we did the SEC Championship with Florida and Alabama). If this was the case, then Georgia Tech would go to the Orange Bowl because that is the contract with the ACC. It would then leave the Orange Bowl to have the first selection of the remaining teams.

To me, that gives them one of four realistic choices: Alabama, TCU, Cincinnati and Boise State. Once we get into any bowl outside of the National Championship, I think it comes do contracts and ticket sales. With that being the case, we also know that you stand a better chance most times in selling tickets if the teams are closer to the bowl. For that reason, I don’t think Boise State would go to the Orange Bowl…just too far to travel. The same could also be said for TCU to some degree. Would the Orange Bowl take Cincinnati…absolutely. How about Alabama? Absolutely! Either would be a great pick, but the charm of being undefeated might mean more dollars than a nearby SEC school. So I think the Orange Bowl might take a Georgia Tech/ Cincinnati matchup. That means you have a #5 vs. a #7...which isn’t that bad.

That leaves two bowls left, and the Fiesta Bowl has next shot.

With the Fiesta Bowl in Arizona, and with the next two picks, there are a few things this bowl has to keep in mind. One, they have a contractual obligation to the Big 12 conference, and they have to look at location, just like the Orange Bowl. But one of the clauses kicks in here, in that IF a Big 12 team is in the National Championship, then the Fiesta Bowl is free to select any other team. And since Texas, a Big 12 team, is in the championship (as per our theory) that leaves the Fiesta Bowl to take two teams.

So in theory, they could take the two highest ranked teams left, which would be TCU, a one loss Alabama, or Boise State. Now immediately you might think that pitting TCU and Boise State would be simplicity, but I beg to differ. Granted this would be a good game, but we saw that game last year. To sell tickets, the bowl may need to give the fans a unique game, not one just held a year ago. Heck, some people got tired of the USC/Ohio State games, so it makes some sense.

I think TCU has the inside track for the Fiesta Bowl, and it would be against either Boise State or Alabama. For sake of not getting a repeat, I think that the Fiesta Bowl would entertain the TCU/Alabama game because it puts a non BCS against a top ranked BCS school…but the temptation to have two undefeated teams could sway them to go with TCU/Boise State. Personally, I think they will drop Boise State for Alabama.

So let’s recap again:

BCS National Championship #1 Florida vs. #3 Texas…
(theory being if Alabama loses and Texas wins, Texas will be #2)

Orange Bowl ACC Champion Georgia Tech (7) vs. #5 Cincinnati (Big East Champs)
(theory being if GA Tech beats Clemson and Cincinnati beats Pittsburgh)

Rose Bowl #11 Ohio State (Big 10 Champs) vs. #13 Oregon (Pac 10 Champs)

Fiesta Bowl #4 TCU (Mountain West Champs) vs. Alabama (SEC Runner up)

That brings us to the final BCS Bowl, the Sugar Bowl. They get the last two picks, but they have a clause too. They must, by contract, take the SEC Champion, but since Florida is the SEC Champs and in the BCS Championships, they are free to take two teams, just like the Fiesta Bowl.

If things go like we discussed, then the highest ranked team still available would be Boise State. For sake of having an undefeated team, the Sugar Bowl will take them… but there may be a question to how well Boise State travels. I mean, New Orleans isn’t a hop, skip and jump away. But still, it is a logical choice of the remaining teams.

So who will the Boise State Broncos play?

There are still several choices based on the remaining teams on that top 15 ranking, but right off the bat, we can eliminate Houston. Just not strong enough to make a good matchup with Boise State. This leaves LSU, USC, Iowa, Pittsburgh and Miami.

The logical choice is by far LSU, but this brings in another clause…one that prevents LSU from playing in New Orleans. By rule, no conference can put in more than two teams out of their own conference in the BCS Bowls. Remember that LSU is a SEC school…so are Florida and Alabama. This means that in theory, LSU would not, COULD NOT, play in the Sugar Bowl.

That leaves USC, which is probably too far to travel. Then you may have to look at Iowa, Pittsburgh and Miami. If we can assume that Cincinnati is undefeated, then it also means they beat Pittsburgh, which knocks them out of the picture. So this leaves Boise State to play either Iowa or Miami…which would sell more tickets?

Iowa is ranked #10, and Miami currently #14, so that might be the choice, but who travels better? Better traveling means more ticket sales. I think the Big 10 does well in traveling, after all, if they can get to Pasadena, they can surely get to New Orleans. I think Iowa plays Boise State in the Sugar Bowl.

So there you have it, the 10 teams selected in the BCS bowls. Of the top 10 teams, LSU and USC will miss out, and will play in lesser bowls. We shall see. Remember, all this is theory at the moment, just to give you an idea of how this might work out. The truth comes this weekend when many of these teams play their conference championships and final regular season games…

Who Judges Tiger Woods?

Who Judges Tiger Woods?

You know, sometimes we show ourselves to be some of the most wicked people on the planet when we gossip about other people. I say “we” because I am human too, and last I checked, I was not perfect.

But we seem to live in a time where idiots look for the flaws in a human, just to make a dollar or to destroy credibility. This was seen perfectly in the Tiger Woods incident just a few days ago.

When I first heard of the story, my immediate concern was, “is he ok?” To me that was far, far more important than anything else. I don’t watch golf nearly as much as I do football or basketball, but everybody knows of Tiger. So when I heard on ESPN that he was in serious condition, my heart sank a bit.

I turned to CNN where they had helicopters flying around his house and talking about what they knew, and I was worried. So I did something maybe a lot of self righteous people don’t do… I took a moment to pray for him.

Sounds corny? Be careful what you believe, there will likely be a time you need somebody to pray for you…

So after I prayed for a minute or so, I thought more about it. They said Tiger was in “serious condition”. Not “Critical”. There is a HUGE difference, and once I thought about it, I took comfort that he should be ok. Hours later I heard that he had been treated and was released. And I want you to notice something…

When I heard that he had been released, I stop watching anything more about it. I heard what I wanted to hear, and I was satisfied. He was alive, and that to me was good enough.

But for many, it wasn’t enough. There then came all kinds of rumors and gossip about why he was even out that early in the morning (or late at night as one might say), and I remember my mom mentioning it to me. I told her, “I don’t pay attention to any of that stuff, once I learned he was ok, I stopped following the story”.

But the world of entertainment and gossip respects no man or woman, only the glory of a dollar bill, and the pride of “being the first to break the story”. So today I am watching two of my fav shows, “Around the Horn” and “Pardon the Interruption”, both on ESPN, and it was the lead story.

It bothered me because we as a nation are looking for gossip, vain imaginations and faults from everybody in the world. It is funny because some of those guys on those ESPN shows keep saying that we are a forgiving country…

Here is news for you…no we are not. We SHOULD be a forgiving nation, but many people like to rehash your past sins…meaning we do not forgive.

Quick example…today the were talking about Ron Artest, and while they were talking about him, they showed the clips from the big fight in Indiana several years ago… known to many as the “Malice in the Palace”. If we are such a forgiving nation, why do we keep showing that?

So I wondered, who has the right to judge Tiger Woods? Ironically, many people feel that they deserve to know what happened? Why? So you can hang him? This is absolutely foolish how we are so nosy in everybody elses affairs just to find a sin. Tiger admitted in his own words that he has some issues to take care of… to me, that is more than fine. In fact, I say again, once I found out he was ok, that was all I needed to know.

But it really shows the mentality and morality of our nation when we are digging in other people’s affairs as if we have a personal right to do it. We all live in glass houses and last I checked, nobody walking the earth right now is perfect. But in the same way, that was how many saw Tiger Woods…as almost a perfect individual in every way.

Well…who’s stupid fault is that? It’s not Tiger’s fault, it’s those people who hold him in such high regard. But I counter also by saying this, those who truly loved Tiger Woods are probably smart enough to know that nobody is perfect, and love him just as much as they did before. It is the idiots who prostitute gossip and sleazy stories who create a venue to put Tiger on trial for his sins, as if they never did anything wrong.

I remember how I felt when Magic Johnson contracted the HIV virus, and the rumors and gossip that came with that. To me, none of that other crap mattered, I wanted Magic to get better, and even then I prayed for him. This does NOT make me a saint by no means, but to me, that was important, far more than a man’s sin. I am sure Magic had thousands of fans that felt the same way.

A REAL fan loves the man, not the image…some would do well to remember that.

So Tiger isn’t perfect…if you didn’t know that before, that makes you an idiot, because nobody is perfect. But knowing that, I am not going to go on some witch hunt to find out the “juicy” details of his problems. To me, he is ok, and I am glad for that.

Get well soon Tiger Woods.

The Fate of Notre Dame, part 2

The Fate of Notre Dame, pt2

I think I blogged on this before, and the answer is still up in the air.

Ok, so Charlie Weis was fired from Notre Dame, and now they are looking at a new head coach…to me if you want to ever see the foolishness of man’s wisdom, which comes to naught, here it is…Notre Dame.

Sometimes we are so smart we outsmart ourselves, to the humiliation of the rest of the nation. I think we all knew this was going to happen, but the foolishness in all this is how this “school of higher learning” and “religious” school has gone about this.

Let’s recap the last 20 years of Notre Dame football, starting with the last time the won the National Championship… 1988.

The coach of that team was (ugh) Lou Holtz. Only a couple of years after he got the Notre Dame job, he led the Irish to a National Championship, but it would appear that the rich alumni wasn’t too happy with that. Even haven gone to a bowl on New Years Day 9 straight times, there was some problems with the team. He “resigned” in 1996, but get this… he was only about FIVE games away from tying or breaking the great Knute Rockne as the most victories by a Notre Dame head coach. It was rumored at that time that a lot of these alumni didn’t want such a “holy” record broken by Lou Holtz, so there was pressure for Lou to resign. Lou Holtz had 100 victories, with 95 of those being during the regular season.

Yet this wasn’t good enough for Notre Dame, and there was heavy criticism to get rid of him…understand the foolishness of this folks…Lou Holts won them a National Championship, and outside of 1986, they had a winning season every year…it was quite obvious that he would have broken Knute Rockne’s record, no doubt about it, but the Notre Dame alumni didn’t want him to do it, so they ran him out. Sure, Lou said he resigned…but he also jumped right back into coaching shortly afterwards, at South Carolina…it implies he was never finished coaching, just forced out.

So then Notre Dame gets Bob Davie in 1997, trying to find a way to get back into the National Championship. The Irish struggled as it was ranked as high as #15 during Davie’s tenure, but failed to get the National Championship the blind Irish wanted. Strange though, because the 2001 squad received praise from the American Football Coaches Association for a 100% graduation rate…

Folks…isn’t THAT what is should be about? Graduating your players?

But no, that wasn’t good enough for Notre Dame, and with a few other problems in the university, they got rid of Bob Davie, after a 35-25 record. It was then they tried to hire George O’Leary from Georgia Tech, but some inconsistent facts in his resume forced Notre Dame to think twice, being humiliated by the scandal of getting a coach that wasn’t really on the level. In their embarrassment, they turned to hire Tyrone Willingham in 2002, and was immediately rewarded with a 10-2 season, one they had not seen in years. But problems stemmed from rich alumni for several reasons, some racist, some foolish pride. With Willingham not winning the way they wanted, and with the demand to have a National Championship, there was pressure to get rid of Willingham, especially since he was not their first choice anyway. Notre Dame would soon fire Willingham, and fearing a backlash of African American recruits not going to the school, was quick to get former Notre Dame player Tim Brown (and Heisman Trophy winner) to work in recruitment.

In 2005 Notre Dame hired Charlie Weis, a Notre Dame graduate and Offensive coordinator of the New England Patriots. In an effort to spark offense and get the NFL flavor for recruiting, the rich alumn of Notre Dame felt that this would get them to the “promised land”. Like Willingham, Weis started out great, so great that in his first year the rich alumni gave him a 10 year extension…something they never offered Willingham after similar performances. They were even ranked as high as #2 in 2006, but it was shortly afterwards when Notre Dame would suffer numerous defeats. With soft schedules and weak performances, it seemed apparent that the mystique of Notre Dame had left, and exactly 5 years after firing Tyrone Willingham, Notre Dame fired Charlie Weis.

Yet in the midst of these times, we have seen the foolishness of Notre Dame extremists, with former coach Lou Holtz now working for ESPN who, with a lying mouth and heart, sits there and proclaims that Notre Dame will win the National Championship and go undefeated…he said this TWO YEARS straight…and was gravely wrong both times.

This is the same university, in some sad attempt to create glory for itself and their greatness, erected a statue of Lou Holtz during a Michigan/Notre Dame football game, perhaps hoping to appease the football gods to help them…remember folks, Notre Dame is a RELIGIOUS school…where are the standards…oh I forgot, it’s in the money.

So here we stand, just over 20 years since Notre Dame won their last National Championship. Notre Dame has had over 30 head coaches. Notre Dame, in their own selfish pride, has pushed off Lou Holtz for fear of him catching Knute Rockne, fired Bob Davie who seemed to emphasize education, forced out Tyrone Willingham amidst pressure from rich Caucasian alumni who obviously were about 50 years behind the rest of the known world as far as racial relationships and equality, and today are STILL looking for somebody to coach this radioactive university.

So what is the fate of this school? Times have changed since the late 80’s, and with ESPN, Fox, and other sports channels, the regular list of college football teams like Notre Dame, Michigan, UCLA, Nebraska and Oklahoma no longer apply. Back then, in the late 80s, you might be able to watch as many as 5 football games per Saturday, if you were lucky. This year, when Saturday comes around, and with even basic cable, I can watch as many as 15 games a day…and we are not including the Thursday or Wednesday or even Friday games that are on ESPN from time to time. Exposure is far, far greater now than it has ever been.

To Notre Dame, this means you are not the marquee team anymore. With more visibility teams like TCU, Miami, Florida, Boise State, Virginia Tech and many others get just as much time as Notre Dame does, even if NBC does carry them virtually every week. With scholarships down to 85 and such exposure, these old school teams no longer are the great teams they used to be. This is not to say that they cannot be any longer, it just means it is much harder to get those recruits than they used to.

Remember, it has been 20 years, and that was early in Lou Holtz’s tenure, so with it being over 20 years, the times have truly changed. But sadly, the rich alumni of Notre Dame are too dead set to those “good ole days”. I can dig that, because we always value the good times once time has passed. Notre Dame didn’t realize when they forced Lou Holtz out that they would relive those glory days 20 years later…if they had, they might not have gotten rid of Lou Holtz. But that’s man’s wisdom for ya, we always think we know what we are doing…only to make a fool of ourselves.

But to me, it is worse than that for Notre Dame. To me, the idea of being a Catholic school is almost a joke, because money speaks far greater than God to them. When rich alumni can make the call on who they want for such a job as a football coach, how can you truly say you are religious? Seems to me that money is the god of Notre Dame, or at least those with a lot of it.

Perhaps…just perhaps, this is their problem. If the school would operate more like a religious school, concentrating on human values and faith in God, maybe they would get in a better position to win a National Championship. I mean, after all, they won a ton of them right? They won 11 National Championships, and two in the last 32 years…it can happen. But who am I to say such things, I am no rich Notre Dame alumni, I don’t make decisions of a religious school with my money…

I let the foolish do that, the fruit of such efforts, and the fate of Notre Dame, seems to be clearly established in what they have sown….