BCS Busters?
I wanted to make a quick blog about this issue since I hear it so much on television. For the novice to college football, I will back up just a bit to explain what I am talking about:
In Division I-A (now called FBS, or FCW or ECW or WWE or CBS or something) there are several conferences, and currently 4 Independent schools. The “power” conferences are the big six, which consistently have the best teams in the nation. Those conferences are, not in any order, ACC, Big East, Big 10, Big 12, Pac 10 and SEC. From these schools come your national champions (in most cases).
But these are not the only conferences in Division IA, there are a few others. I mentioned there are 4 Independent schools, those being Navy, Army, Western Kentucky and Notre Dame (of which many read my blog on “The Fate of ND”)
But as mentioned, there are other conferences. These conferences include Conference USA, Mid-American Conference, The Mountain West Conference, Sun Belt Conference and the Western Athletic Conference. These conferences are known as the “lesser” power conferences, but I do not say that in any ill will to them.
When the NCAA began putting together the BCS, or Bowl Championship Series, it was designed originally to pit the best teams against each other, but initially it did not include the Rose Bowl. The Bowl and their contracted conferences, (Big 10 and Pac 10) didn’t want change, and was from the onset a problem to the BCS. The idea was to try to pit the #1 and #2 teams in a true Championship, but this was a problem if any team from the Pac 10 or Big 10 finished at the top.
But this was soon fixed and it then included the four major bowls, the Rose Bowl, Orange Bowl, Fiesta Bowl and Sugar Bowl. These bowls now seemed to be in unison that the NCAA could not present the fans of college football with a true National Championship. But the problem was that in doing that, the lesser conferences were left out of the picture.
This was ignored for a few years until teams like Fresno State, Boise State, TCU, Hawaii and others began to put pressure on the NCAA. It forced people to wonder, what if a team like that finished undefeated? Shall the NCAA ignore their success while catering to the “fat cats” of the BCS?
So taking another step, the NCAA created a fifth bowl, thus allowing 10 slots for Division I teams. The purpose for this fifth bowl was to allow room for a non-BCS team to compete in the major bowls instead of leaving them out. Now…having said that, it should be understood that if the NCAA created a fifth bowl FOR the opportunity for a non BCS team to get involved, then it stands to reason that these teams don’t have to “bust” in.
The term “BCS Busters” doesn’t make sense because to “bust” in is to intrude to enter where you were not allowed. To force entry. This is not the situation folks, because the bowl now gives PLACE to such a team that qualifies. If there is a question on this, it is, at this point of the year, WHO will be that team.
“Well why not all the teams that qualify?”
That sounds credible, especially now. If you check the current rankings you will see that currently 7 teams outside the BCS conferences are on the top 25. Of those, we focus more on the top 3, being Utah at #7, Boise State at #10 and Ball State at #14. But if you do the math, you know that with 5 major bowls, there is only room for 10 teams. So how might this play out, and how does this involve the non-BCS schools, or as some call them, “BCS Busters”.
To know how this works, you also must remember that there are certain rules that must be applied first. The first and foremost is that the National Championship game is called the FedEX BCS National Championship Game, which WILL take the #1 and #2 teams. They get the first pick, and if it ended today, we know it would be Alabama and Texas Tech.
But after that, it gets a little different.
You see, many of you assume that the second best bowl will take #3 and #4, in this case being #3 Texas vs. #4 Florida, but that is not quite how it works. There are a lot of sub plots going on that make these selections different, and it does impact the “BCS Busters”.
The order of the bowls this year (which rotate yearly) are: Rose, Orange, Sugar, Fiesta and BCS Championship, in reverse order. The greatest games being last. If the season ended today, the BCS Championship must place Alabama and Texas Tech in this bowl.
After that, certain things apply.
The second biggest game would then be the Fiesta bowl, which has a contractual obligation to the Big 12. This means that normally they would have to take the best Big 12 team, as per their contract with the conference. But this would be different, because this year, Texas Tech, a member of the Big 12, is in the National Championship. That means they are no longer obligated to take a Big 12 team….
But they COULD if they wanted to…and with Texas sitting right there at #3, it is very likely that they would take the Longhorns…but would they take Florida?
You’d think they would…but then there’d be another problem. Just as the Big 12 as a contract with the Fiesta Bowl, the SEC has a contract with the Sugar Bowl. The Sugar bowl has the right to the best SEC team UNLESS they are in the National Championship…and guess what. Alabama is an SEC team. So that then frees up the contractual obligation. On paper, it might seem that the Fiesta Bowl could indeed have the #3 and #4 teams compete.
Now keep in mind that with these 5 bowls, ALL of the power conferences (ACC, Big East, Big 10, Big 12, SEC and Pac-10) MUST be involved. Right now we have two bowls, and four teams, but ironically they both pit the SEC vs. Big 12. So let’s just assume that for a moment and look at the third bowl and see how it plays out and how it involved the BCS Busters.
So the third bowl would then be the Sugar Bowl. As we mentioned, this bowl has an obligation to the SEC, but Alabama is in the National Championship. Normally we’d think that it would then select Florida, but we are not sure if the Fiesta Bowl will select them or not…I assure you, many fans would LOVE to see that matchup. But let’s assume that Florida goes to the Fiesta Bowl. Who then would the Sugar Bowl take?
If you go to the next team on the BCS Rankings, that would be Oklahoma at #5. The Sugar Bowl could have Oklahoma face the next team on the list, that being #6 USC, right?
Wrong.
This creates a problem, maybe two problems. To this point we still have not satisfied the ACC, Big East, Big 10 and Pac 10. Those four teams have to be in the BCS. While the Sugar Bowl could pick Oklahoma, it could not pick USC because the Rose Bowl has contractual obligations to both the Pac-10 AND the Big 10 conferences. And since neither is in the National Championship, they have the rights to both…meaning #6 USC and #8 Penn State.
We’ll get back to that in a sec, but that means the Sugar Bowl must select another team. THIS is where the non-BCS teams come in because Utah is currently ranked #7. This means that it is clearly possible for a non-BCS team to compete in the BCS bowl, that being the Sugar Bowl in New Orleans. Oklahoma vs. Utah…quite possible.
If things go as me mentioned, then the fourth bowl on the list is Orange Bowl, which is contractually obligated to the ACC. This means they must take the best ACC team into their bowl. This is interesting because right now, the best team in the ACC is UNC, way down there at #16. But the Orange Bowl would have to take them, and would also have the option of another team.
Now notice what just happened. IF this plays out like we mentioned, then the BCS bowls would then NOT be guaranteed to the top 10 teams, since UNC is ranked 16. This means that somebody in the top 10 will NOT be going to a major bowl. The Orange Bowl can’t drop UNC because they are obligated to the ACC, so they must now pick one of those top 10 teams. And since the highest ranked team left is #6 USC but we know they must be given to the Rose Bowl. #7 is taken (Utah) and #8 is Penn State, which is likely obligated to the Rose Bowl. This drops us down to #9 Boise State,
But that creates a problem.
Remember folks, the power conferences must all have a representative in the BCS. The ACC has UNC in the Orange Bowl, the SEC has a rep in the BCS Championship and likely the Fiesta Bowl. The Big 10 and Pac-10 will meet in the Rose Bowl. The Big 12 will be in the National Championship and a Fiesta Bowl…that leaves out one conference…
The Big East.
They HAVE to be involved, so they there may be no choice. And according to the BCS rankings, Pittsburgh is ranked #21...but likely the candidate to play UNC in the Orange Bowl…leaving Boise State out of the picture.
And actually they would not be the only team snubbed. The #10 team is currently Georgia, and would be left out of a major bowl. But you also add undefeated Ball State. We know that #17 and #18 are BYU and TCU but with Utah being in, nobody is going to argue. This still makes it difficult for more than one non-BCS team to enter the bowl series, but it does acknowledge that at LEAST one can get in.
So….BCS Busters? Not really. This isn’t about allowing 2 or more non-BCS teams in the major bowls, this is about giving the BEST non-BCS team a chance to play against the best teams in the nation. I am not saying it is a perfect system, but hey, it certainly is better than it was a few years ago, when these same teams had NO chance.
You gotta start somewhere.
Thursday, November 13, 2008
BCS Playoffs, scenario #3
BCS Playoffs: Scenario #3
After looking into the portal of the alternate universe and seeing how the NCAA handled the BCS Playoffs in scenario #2, I wanted to check another portal to see if there was another situation. I found one, and wanted to explain that to you.
Remember, this is a scenario of the “what ifs” in college football. In this particular portal, I see that the NCAA has adopted the playoffs as so many people cried for, but I am not sure about where the games are played, which bowls sponsor them and those kinda details, I can only see who is playing.
In the second scenario, the NCAA went with six teams, giving the top two teams a bye while the others fought it out. The higher seed played the #2 team and the lower seeded team remaining played the #1 team. In that scenario, we saw Florida vs. Texas, but this portal is slightly different.
This universe believes that not six, but EIGHT teams should be in the BCS Playoffs. The idea here was that often times the non-BCS teams don’t get to make it in the top 5, which will likely keep them out of the playoffs. To increase the number to eight gives them a fair shot to compete should they make it that far. It would virtually mean an undefeated season, but it is quite possible.
The BCS Playoffs looks like this: the #1 team plays #8, the #2 team plays the #7, while the #3 team plays the #6 and finally the #4 team plays the #5. The highest seeded team remaining plays the lowest seeded team, and the two remaining teams play one another. The final two play in the BCS National Championship.
With those being the qualifiers, this is what I see in this alternate universe….
#1 Alabama draws #8 Penn State in a classic duel and the attempt of the Big 10 to earn some respect for their conference.
#2 Texas Tech takes on #7 Utah in the great matchup to see if indeed this non-BCS team can hang with the likes of the high scoring Big 12.
#3 Texas faces #6 USC as both 1 loss teams try to take a shot for the National Title.
#4 Florida plays #5 Oklahoma as both teams shake off early losses to try to claim the grand title.
From what I think I see in this universe, Texas Tech wins their game, as do Texas, and I think I see Florida defeating Oklahoma in a classic game. The Alabama vs. Penn State game is very cloudy, I can’t really make it out. It’s possible that there MIGHT have been an upset.
If so, then Penn State, as the lowest seeded team, would draw Texas Tech, and Florida and Texas face off. I can’t swear by that Alabama/Penn State game, but I am hearing a lot of talk about “upset” so I will just assume Penn State won.
But if so, I also see that it would be their only win, as Texas Tech defeats them and advances to the National Championship. The Florida vs. Texas game is another classic, as Florida seems to continually show us their greatness, and I just can’t see clearly enough to tell what hue of orange comes out of that game.
So Texas Tech faces the winner of Florida and Texas in what would promise to be a great game. But there is still controversy.
Boise State, ranked #9 and undefeated, is disappointed in how the NCAA has ignored them, when 3 teams out of the same conference made up almost HALF the playoffs. Even the ACC cries foul even though their best team, UNC is ranked #16 by BCS standards.
It would appear that the playoffs didn’t fully solve the matter of who was the BEST team, when undefeated teams are still left out, and the power conferences don’t all have a representative in the games. The Big East does not have a lot to argue, but they are considered a BCS conference.
It would appear that the issue of playoffs is still not resolved in this universe either…
After looking into the portal of the alternate universe and seeing how the NCAA handled the BCS Playoffs in scenario #2, I wanted to check another portal to see if there was another situation. I found one, and wanted to explain that to you.
Remember, this is a scenario of the “what ifs” in college football. In this particular portal, I see that the NCAA has adopted the playoffs as so many people cried for, but I am not sure about where the games are played, which bowls sponsor them and those kinda details, I can only see who is playing.
In the second scenario, the NCAA went with six teams, giving the top two teams a bye while the others fought it out. The higher seed played the #2 team and the lower seeded team remaining played the #1 team. In that scenario, we saw Florida vs. Texas, but this portal is slightly different.
This universe believes that not six, but EIGHT teams should be in the BCS Playoffs. The idea here was that often times the non-BCS teams don’t get to make it in the top 5, which will likely keep them out of the playoffs. To increase the number to eight gives them a fair shot to compete should they make it that far. It would virtually mean an undefeated season, but it is quite possible.
The BCS Playoffs looks like this: the #1 team plays #8, the #2 team plays the #7, while the #3 team plays the #6 and finally the #4 team plays the #5. The highest seeded team remaining plays the lowest seeded team, and the two remaining teams play one another. The final two play in the BCS National Championship.
With those being the qualifiers, this is what I see in this alternate universe….
#1 Alabama draws #8 Penn State in a classic duel and the attempt of the Big 10 to earn some respect for their conference.
#2 Texas Tech takes on #7 Utah in the great matchup to see if indeed this non-BCS team can hang with the likes of the high scoring Big 12.
#3 Texas faces #6 USC as both 1 loss teams try to take a shot for the National Title.
#4 Florida plays #5 Oklahoma as both teams shake off early losses to try to claim the grand title.
From what I think I see in this universe, Texas Tech wins their game, as do Texas, and I think I see Florida defeating Oklahoma in a classic game. The Alabama vs. Penn State game is very cloudy, I can’t really make it out. It’s possible that there MIGHT have been an upset.
If so, then Penn State, as the lowest seeded team, would draw Texas Tech, and Florida and Texas face off. I can’t swear by that Alabama/Penn State game, but I am hearing a lot of talk about “upset” so I will just assume Penn State won.
But if so, I also see that it would be their only win, as Texas Tech defeats them and advances to the National Championship. The Florida vs. Texas game is another classic, as Florida seems to continually show us their greatness, and I just can’t see clearly enough to tell what hue of orange comes out of that game.
So Texas Tech faces the winner of Florida and Texas in what would promise to be a great game. But there is still controversy.
Boise State, ranked #9 and undefeated, is disappointed in how the NCAA has ignored them, when 3 teams out of the same conference made up almost HALF the playoffs. Even the ACC cries foul even though their best team, UNC is ranked #16 by BCS standards.
It would appear that the playoffs didn’t fully solve the matter of who was the BEST team, when undefeated teams are still left out, and the power conferences don’t all have a representative in the games. The Big East does not have a lot to argue, but they are considered a BCS conference.
It would appear that the issue of playoffs is still not resolved in this universe either…
BCS Playoffs, scenario #2
BCS Playoffs: Scenario #2
If you read my blog on scenario #1, then you may understand what I am talking about. If you have not, this is just an idea of how the playoffs COULD work if there was such a thing in the FBS.
Personally for me, it does not matter, a playoff would not solve anything because of the example I am going to give in a sec, and what I mentioned in scenario #1. But let’s suppose that we could look into the portal of an identical universe, one exactly like ours except they did have the BCS Playoffs. What info could that world provide for us?
As mentioned in the first scenario, there was much talk about how many teams would compete. Immediately the idea of 32 and 16 teams were ruled out because it would be foolish to think that any team outside the top 10 has any REAL shot to compete for a National Title…otherwise they would have already BEEN in the top 10.
The idea of an 8 team playoff was strongly debated, but defeated because in the history of the NCAA, no team outside the top 5 were worthy enough to be considered as THE elite of the NCAA. But the argument of the non-BCS teams brought in the idea that it ought to be fair to try to allow at least one in, if they can manage to prove that they are amongst the best. Still, eight teams was too much, meaning the National Champion would have to play 3 extra games.
So the idea was a split, a compromise, for six teams. The BCS playoffs would have six teams, and the #1 and #2 teams would get a bye, saving them from one game. Of the remaining teams, the #3 team would play the #6 team, and the #4 team would play the #5 team. It was also decided that the lowest seed advancing would play the number one team, and the higher seeded team would play the #2.
And so we peek into this universe to see how this plays out:
Because Alabama is the number one team in the nation, and Texas Tech the number two team, both teams sit back and see whom they will play. As the #3 seed, Texas would play #6 USC and #4 Florida would play #5 Oklahoma. As far as I could see it, it appears that the Big 12 would win AND lose, but I am not quite sure which one falls and which one moves on. It looks like Texas defeats USC and Florida knocks off Oklahoma.
If that is true, then Alabama would then play Florida in order to advance to the National Championship, and Texas Tech would then play Texas. There is a lot of confusion here, because lots of fans are crying foul in that the National Championship is made up of only two conferences, and they are playing familiar foes. The lack of a new matchup brings a lot of criticism to the NCAA. Nevertheless, I see Florida vs. Texas in the National Championship, and although I can’t see the winner, I see that it is a very good game.
But the season still has great controversy, as the Big 10 cries foul for being left out of the BCS playoffs. In addition, Utah and Boise State are very disappointed in not being invited to the playoffs, even with perfect records.
Sports writers and media protest the way the NCAA has performed this playoffs, and some want more changes to allow more teams, while some want to make sure that all major conferences get a shot in the playoffs. More turmoil seems to come about even as the NCAA tries to fix this situation….
We’ll have to look at another portal to see how another world tries to solve this BCS problem…although I don’t really see a problem in what we have now. But it’s interesting to see what could play out…until next time…
If you read my blog on scenario #1, then you may understand what I am talking about. If you have not, this is just an idea of how the playoffs COULD work if there was such a thing in the FBS.
Personally for me, it does not matter, a playoff would not solve anything because of the example I am going to give in a sec, and what I mentioned in scenario #1. But let’s suppose that we could look into the portal of an identical universe, one exactly like ours except they did have the BCS Playoffs. What info could that world provide for us?
As mentioned in the first scenario, there was much talk about how many teams would compete. Immediately the idea of 32 and 16 teams were ruled out because it would be foolish to think that any team outside the top 10 has any REAL shot to compete for a National Title…otherwise they would have already BEEN in the top 10.
The idea of an 8 team playoff was strongly debated, but defeated because in the history of the NCAA, no team outside the top 5 were worthy enough to be considered as THE elite of the NCAA. But the argument of the non-BCS teams brought in the idea that it ought to be fair to try to allow at least one in, if they can manage to prove that they are amongst the best. Still, eight teams was too much, meaning the National Champion would have to play 3 extra games.
So the idea was a split, a compromise, for six teams. The BCS playoffs would have six teams, and the #1 and #2 teams would get a bye, saving them from one game. Of the remaining teams, the #3 team would play the #6 team, and the #4 team would play the #5 team. It was also decided that the lowest seed advancing would play the number one team, and the higher seeded team would play the #2.
And so we peek into this universe to see how this plays out:
Because Alabama is the number one team in the nation, and Texas Tech the number two team, both teams sit back and see whom they will play. As the #3 seed, Texas would play #6 USC and #4 Florida would play #5 Oklahoma. As far as I could see it, it appears that the Big 12 would win AND lose, but I am not quite sure which one falls and which one moves on. It looks like Texas defeats USC and Florida knocks off Oklahoma.
If that is true, then Alabama would then play Florida in order to advance to the National Championship, and Texas Tech would then play Texas. There is a lot of confusion here, because lots of fans are crying foul in that the National Championship is made up of only two conferences, and they are playing familiar foes. The lack of a new matchup brings a lot of criticism to the NCAA. Nevertheless, I see Florida vs. Texas in the National Championship, and although I can’t see the winner, I see that it is a very good game.
But the season still has great controversy, as the Big 10 cries foul for being left out of the BCS playoffs. In addition, Utah and Boise State are very disappointed in not being invited to the playoffs, even with perfect records.
Sports writers and media protest the way the NCAA has performed this playoffs, and some want more changes to allow more teams, while some want to make sure that all major conferences get a shot in the playoffs. More turmoil seems to come about even as the NCAA tries to fix this situation….
We’ll have to look at another portal to see how another world tries to solve this BCS problem…although I don’t really see a problem in what we have now. But it’s interesting to see what could play out…until next time…
ACC Football
Some love for ACC Football
It’s very interesting that only a month or so ago, many believed that the ACC was so beat up that they might only get 5 teams in post season play. When I looked at teams like Virginia and Clemson falling apart, I thought that this team of 12 would get less than half of the members into a bowl.
But things have changed quite a bit hasn’t it?
It’s interesting that lots of fans of other smaller conferences like to say that their teams could beat ANYBODY in the ACC or the Big East. I remember watching ESPN on their “Interactive Tuesday” games and read a lot of the comments people put about their non-BCS teams. Lots of people believe that their teams like Ball State, Tulsa or Utah could beat any team in the ACC.
This is because they claim that the ACC is very soft this year, and I saw this as well. But maybe we have misinterpreted that from “soft” to very competitive. Let me show you what I mean.
There are 9 bowls…NINE that have courted ACC teams. That is a heck of a lot of bids out of a conference of 12 teams. And as I said earlier, I thought that maybe 5 would get there. But at this very moment, as of November 13th, 2008, there are not five, but EIGHT teams now qualified for a bowl.
From the Atlantic division Florida State leads the way at 7-2, followed by Wake Forest and Maryland, both at 6-3. Boston College makes the fourth, also at 6-2, but with a tough conference record.
On the Coastal division, you have UNC on the top at 7-2, followed by Virginia Tech and Miami, both at 6-3, with Georgia Tech below them at 7-3 because of conference records. Eight teams now qualified for a bowl.
And get this…NO teams in the ACC are excluded. NONE.
The Big 12 can’t say that because they have 2 teams out of post season contention, and 7 teams currently eligible.
The Big East can’t say that because they have one team out of the post season, and only 5 currently eligible.
The Big 10 can’t say that because they have 3 teams out, and 6 teams currently eligible.
Conference USA can’t say that because they have 4 teams out, 3 currently eligible.
The MAC? Nope, they have SIX teams out, three teams in.
Mountain West? Two teams out, 4 teams in.
Pac-10? Two teams out, 5 teams in.
The great SEC? Nope, Tennessee is out and they have only 6 teams now eligible.
Sun Belt? Not hardly. Two teams out and only one has qualified.
And the WAC? Two teams out, two teams in.
So for all the critics who said the ACC was garbage, your proof is in the fact that this is the ONLY conference in Division IA (FBS) that had the MOST teams already eligible for bowl season, and at this moment has NO teams excluded. That makes this conference pretty competitive, doesn’t it?
I didn’t say it was the BEST, so don’t say something silly, I said they were the most competitive.
But here is something interesting…can they put MORE in post season? Let’s see:
Of the four teams in “limbo” we start with Virginia. The Cavaliers are currently 3-3 in ACC play and 5-5 overall. We know they have 2 games left, against Clemson at home and vs. Virginia Tech away. With wins over UNC and Georgia Tech, there is still a shot that Virginia COULD still take the division, but they need UNC to lose, and they need to beat Virginia Tech. I am not sure if the Richmond game they played earlier counts, if it does, then one win is all they need. If not, they need to win both games, which is pretty tough to do. But there IS a good chance for Virginia to qualify for a bowl if they can beat Clemson.
What of Duke? Sure they are 1-4 in conference, but 4-5 overall. With three games, they need two wins. But I gotta tell ya, I can’t see it. There might be a slight chance against Clemson, but playing in Death Valley won’t be good for Duke, and then to turn around and go TO Virginia Tech…nope. Then to end the season against currently ranked UNC could spell 3 losses in a row. But if they can steal ONE game, they might have a shot. A longshot, but still a shot.
I mentioned Clemson, they too still have a chance, even at 4-5. They too have 3 games remaining, first at home vs. Duke. Even in difficulty, I can still see Clemson beating Duke, but it is not automatic. If they can beat the Blue Devils, then they would be 5-5, needing one more win. Their last two games are against Virginia and a home stand against South Carolina. It’s not out the realm of possibility for Clemson to win 2 games, but I really don’t see it. It’s just a tough road.
And then there is NC State, who is actually the closest team to being knocked out of post season. At 3-6, any loss will finish them off. It’s actually amazing that a team that logs on so few miles the entire season can play so poorly. Have you seen their schedule?
Of their 9 games, FIVE have been home in North Carolina. Of the four away games, one was in Durham, and TWO was in South Carolina! Up to now the only time NC State has left the Carolinas was when they played Maryland. And yet, only 3 wins?
Of their last 3 games, get this…they STAY at home to play ranked Wake Forest, and then have an away game to Chapel Hill. It’s quite possible that the Wolfpack may have logged the fewest miles in the nation before their big trip to Miami to finish the season. But regardless of how you slice it, if they lose ONE game, their season is over. I see no way they can get through playing 2 ranked teams and then making a trip completely out of their comfort zone to end the season, knowing by then that it’s just a game.
So of the four teams in the ACC trying to make a bowl, mathematically there is still hope for NC State, but maybe a 1% chance to win 3 games in a row. Duke has maybe a 3% chance because they need two wins instead of 3. Clemson has maybe a 10% chance because they are playing 2 teams with a losing record, and is it possible they could beat them both. But if they cannot, the won’t beat South Carolina. And for Virginia, they need only one win (if Richmond counts) so I give them a 25% chance.
So show some love for the ACC guys, there is a slight chance that they can do something probably never done…put ALL teams in post season….ok stop laughing, I know it’s highly unlikely… but as of this moment, no other conference can say that…
Can they? I didn’t think so.
It’s very interesting that only a month or so ago, many believed that the ACC was so beat up that they might only get 5 teams in post season play. When I looked at teams like Virginia and Clemson falling apart, I thought that this team of 12 would get less than half of the members into a bowl.
But things have changed quite a bit hasn’t it?
It’s interesting that lots of fans of other smaller conferences like to say that their teams could beat ANYBODY in the ACC or the Big East. I remember watching ESPN on their “Interactive Tuesday” games and read a lot of the comments people put about their non-BCS teams. Lots of people believe that their teams like Ball State, Tulsa or Utah could beat any team in the ACC.
This is because they claim that the ACC is very soft this year, and I saw this as well. But maybe we have misinterpreted that from “soft” to very competitive. Let me show you what I mean.
There are 9 bowls…NINE that have courted ACC teams. That is a heck of a lot of bids out of a conference of 12 teams. And as I said earlier, I thought that maybe 5 would get there. But at this very moment, as of November 13th, 2008, there are not five, but EIGHT teams now qualified for a bowl.
From the Atlantic division Florida State leads the way at 7-2, followed by Wake Forest and Maryland, both at 6-3. Boston College makes the fourth, also at 6-2, but with a tough conference record.
On the Coastal division, you have UNC on the top at 7-2, followed by Virginia Tech and Miami, both at 6-3, with Georgia Tech below them at 7-3 because of conference records. Eight teams now qualified for a bowl.
And get this…NO teams in the ACC are excluded. NONE.
The Big 12 can’t say that because they have 2 teams out of post season contention, and 7 teams currently eligible.
The Big East can’t say that because they have one team out of the post season, and only 5 currently eligible.
The Big 10 can’t say that because they have 3 teams out, and 6 teams currently eligible.
Conference USA can’t say that because they have 4 teams out, 3 currently eligible.
The MAC? Nope, they have SIX teams out, three teams in.
Mountain West? Two teams out, 4 teams in.
Pac-10? Two teams out, 5 teams in.
The great SEC? Nope, Tennessee is out and they have only 6 teams now eligible.
Sun Belt? Not hardly. Two teams out and only one has qualified.
And the WAC? Two teams out, two teams in.
So for all the critics who said the ACC was garbage, your proof is in the fact that this is the ONLY conference in Division IA (FBS) that had the MOST teams already eligible for bowl season, and at this moment has NO teams excluded. That makes this conference pretty competitive, doesn’t it?
I didn’t say it was the BEST, so don’t say something silly, I said they were the most competitive.
But here is something interesting…can they put MORE in post season? Let’s see:
Of the four teams in “limbo” we start with Virginia. The Cavaliers are currently 3-3 in ACC play and 5-5 overall. We know they have 2 games left, against Clemson at home and vs. Virginia Tech away. With wins over UNC and Georgia Tech, there is still a shot that Virginia COULD still take the division, but they need UNC to lose, and they need to beat Virginia Tech. I am not sure if the Richmond game they played earlier counts, if it does, then one win is all they need. If not, they need to win both games, which is pretty tough to do. But there IS a good chance for Virginia to qualify for a bowl if they can beat Clemson.
What of Duke? Sure they are 1-4 in conference, but 4-5 overall. With three games, they need two wins. But I gotta tell ya, I can’t see it. There might be a slight chance against Clemson, but playing in Death Valley won’t be good for Duke, and then to turn around and go TO Virginia Tech…nope. Then to end the season against currently ranked UNC could spell 3 losses in a row. But if they can steal ONE game, they might have a shot. A longshot, but still a shot.
I mentioned Clemson, they too still have a chance, even at 4-5. They too have 3 games remaining, first at home vs. Duke. Even in difficulty, I can still see Clemson beating Duke, but it is not automatic. If they can beat the Blue Devils, then they would be 5-5, needing one more win. Their last two games are against Virginia and a home stand against South Carolina. It’s not out the realm of possibility for Clemson to win 2 games, but I really don’t see it. It’s just a tough road.
And then there is NC State, who is actually the closest team to being knocked out of post season. At 3-6, any loss will finish them off. It’s actually amazing that a team that logs on so few miles the entire season can play so poorly. Have you seen their schedule?
Of their 9 games, FIVE have been home in North Carolina. Of the four away games, one was in Durham, and TWO was in South Carolina! Up to now the only time NC State has left the Carolinas was when they played Maryland. And yet, only 3 wins?
Of their last 3 games, get this…they STAY at home to play ranked Wake Forest, and then have an away game to Chapel Hill. It’s quite possible that the Wolfpack may have logged the fewest miles in the nation before their big trip to Miami to finish the season. But regardless of how you slice it, if they lose ONE game, their season is over. I see no way they can get through playing 2 ranked teams and then making a trip completely out of their comfort zone to end the season, knowing by then that it’s just a game.
So of the four teams in the ACC trying to make a bowl, mathematically there is still hope for NC State, but maybe a 1% chance to win 3 games in a row. Duke has maybe a 3% chance because they need two wins instead of 3. Clemson has maybe a 10% chance because they are playing 2 teams with a losing record, and is it possible they could beat them both. But if they cannot, the won’t beat South Carolina. And for Virginia, they need only one win (if Richmond counts) so I give them a 25% chance.
So show some love for the ACC guys, there is a slight chance that they can do something probably never done…put ALL teams in post season….ok stop laughing, I know it’s highly unlikely… but as of this moment, no other conference can say that…
Can they? I didn’t think so.
Navy vs Notre Dame
Can Navy Beat Notre Dame?
Or you can easily flip this and say, “Can Notre Dame Beat Navy”, depending on who you pull for.
This is an interesting blog because some of you who have read my blogs know that the Irish is not my favorite team, and some fans are quite fanatical about their team. It’s like you can’t say anything wrong about Notre Dame because they are holy…
Yeah, right.
But whether I like them or not, they still have to try to qualify for a bowl, after being shut out by Boston College. They need one more win, and have three shots at it… let’s go ahead and rule out Southern Cal…they AIN’T getting that one.
And Syracuse is bad enough to almost guarantee that win to Notre Dame. But before both of those, is the game vs. Navy. So the question is, who will win?
Why is this game important? For Notre Dame, they need the win like Winnie the Pooh needs honey. They need this like Smurfs need smurf berries. They need this like Scooby needs Scooby Snacks.
The Irish must win 6 games to qualify for a bowl, and right now they have 5 wins. We know that even with just 6 wins, Notre Dame will likely get a better bowl than a team like Ball State (the rich get richer). But they still have to qualify, and this game means a lot to them.
For Navy, they are already bowl eligible at 6-3, but oh what could have been, losing to 10-0 Ball State 35-23, and to then ranked Pittsburgh by 3 touchdowns… and then there is that Duke loss…
Navy is already slated for a bowl, the Congressional Bowl, vs. a low ranked ACC team (oh by the way, 8 are currently eligible). Maybe a Virginia or maybe Miami? So it is already settled for them, which COULD create some problems. Often times once you know your fate, you lose the edge to play hard. This could play into Notre Dame’s hands.
But beating Notre Dame is a feather in anyone’s cap, regardless of what their record is. So Navy would have to get up big time for this game, especially since Navy will be home, and Notre Dame does not play well on the road. Navy COULD possibly get 10 wins if they beat Notre Dame, and win their last two games of the year and the bowl.
So what else can we go on? Here are some stats:
Notre Dame is 69th in the nation in scoring, at 24.3 a game; Navy is 42nd at 29.3 This almost spells a close game, where one possession will make the difference between a win for Navy or one for the Irish.
Notre Dame is 95th in the country in rushing yards per game at 115.6. Navy is #2 in the nation with 308 yards per game rushing. If Notre Dame cannot stop the run, that option game plan is going to walk all over Notre Dame.
Notre Dame is 21st in the nation in passing yards per game at 259.4, while Navy is better than ONLY Army, passing 66.9 yards per game. We know that is by design, but does this mean Navy can stop the pass?
Notre Dame has 52 penalties for a total of 455 yards, while Navy has only 28 penalties for 246 yards… discipline will be a major factor in who will control this game. As we have already seen, the scores between the two are only one possession apart.
Well, if it comes down to that, then let’s look at the kicking game:
Notre Dame’s kicker has made 27 of 27 extra points, and have made 8 of 15 field goals…ouch. His longest was 48 yards, which is good, but he is 4-8 when it comes to field goals between 40 and 49 yards. He’s automatic from 20-29 yards, making 3-3 but after that, it kinda gets dicey. What this may spell out is that Notre Dame does not have a very good kicking game, making only 5-12 outside the 30 yard line. If it comes down to a field goal…watch out.
Navy’s kicker has some interesting stats as well. He is 29 of 30, which puts him on par with Notre Dame’s kicker. But he kicks 14-16, much better than his counterpart. His longest field goal was 49 yards, one yard longer than Notre Dame’s kicker but we are not going to argue one yard this way or the other. What IS interesting is that he has NO field goals attempted from 1-19 yards, so this tells us that Navy does not believe in giving up a shot for a touchdown. But from 20-29 yards he is perfect at 6-6. From 30-39 yards out he is 5 of 6...not bad at all. Further, he is 3-4 from 40 to 49 yards out. This seems to be a pretty accurate kicker and someone you want when you need a last second field goal.
So having said all that, who has the advantage? Will Navy play “down” since they already have a bowl locked up, while Notre Dame plays with everything to gain? Will Notre Dame run into a problem they have had all year, in losing away games and to better competition? Will Navy look at this game as a great accomplishment in beating Notre Dame and possibly winning 10 games this year, or will Notre Dame play “up” and qualify for a bowl? Lots of things to be seen on this game.
So…who will win? The stats say this will be close, maybe by the foot of a kicker, but hey, when does the games ever go by what the stats say?
Or you can easily flip this and say, “Can Notre Dame Beat Navy”, depending on who you pull for.
This is an interesting blog because some of you who have read my blogs know that the Irish is not my favorite team, and some fans are quite fanatical about their team. It’s like you can’t say anything wrong about Notre Dame because they are holy…
Yeah, right.
But whether I like them or not, they still have to try to qualify for a bowl, after being shut out by Boston College. They need one more win, and have three shots at it… let’s go ahead and rule out Southern Cal…they AIN’T getting that one.
And Syracuse is bad enough to almost guarantee that win to Notre Dame. But before both of those, is the game vs. Navy. So the question is, who will win?
Why is this game important? For Notre Dame, they need the win like Winnie the Pooh needs honey. They need this like Smurfs need smurf berries. They need this like Scooby needs Scooby Snacks.
The Irish must win 6 games to qualify for a bowl, and right now they have 5 wins. We know that even with just 6 wins, Notre Dame will likely get a better bowl than a team like Ball State (the rich get richer). But they still have to qualify, and this game means a lot to them.
For Navy, they are already bowl eligible at 6-3, but oh what could have been, losing to 10-0 Ball State 35-23, and to then ranked Pittsburgh by 3 touchdowns… and then there is that Duke loss…
Navy is already slated for a bowl, the Congressional Bowl, vs. a low ranked ACC team (oh by the way, 8 are currently eligible). Maybe a Virginia or maybe Miami? So it is already settled for them, which COULD create some problems. Often times once you know your fate, you lose the edge to play hard. This could play into Notre Dame’s hands.
But beating Notre Dame is a feather in anyone’s cap, regardless of what their record is. So Navy would have to get up big time for this game, especially since Navy will be home, and Notre Dame does not play well on the road. Navy COULD possibly get 10 wins if they beat Notre Dame, and win their last two games of the year and the bowl.
So what else can we go on? Here are some stats:
Notre Dame is 69th in the nation in scoring, at 24.3 a game; Navy is 42nd at 29.3 This almost spells a close game, where one possession will make the difference between a win for Navy or one for the Irish.
Notre Dame is 95th in the country in rushing yards per game at 115.6. Navy is #2 in the nation with 308 yards per game rushing. If Notre Dame cannot stop the run, that option game plan is going to walk all over Notre Dame.
Notre Dame is 21st in the nation in passing yards per game at 259.4, while Navy is better than ONLY Army, passing 66.9 yards per game. We know that is by design, but does this mean Navy can stop the pass?
Notre Dame has 52 penalties for a total of 455 yards, while Navy has only 28 penalties for 246 yards… discipline will be a major factor in who will control this game. As we have already seen, the scores between the two are only one possession apart.
Well, if it comes down to that, then let’s look at the kicking game:
Notre Dame’s kicker has made 27 of 27 extra points, and have made 8 of 15 field goals…ouch. His longest was 48 yards, which is good, but he is 4-8 when it comes to field goals between 40 and 49 yards. He’s automatic from 20-29 yards, making 3-3 but after that, it kinda gets dicey. What this may spell out is that Notre Dame does not have a very good kicking game, making only 5-12 outside the 30 yard line. If it comes down to a field goal…watch out.
Navy’s kicker has some interesting stats as well. He is 29 of 30, which puts him on par with Notre Dame’s kicker. But he kicks 14-16, much better than his counterpart. His longest field goal was 49 yards, one yard longer than Notre Dame’s kicker but we are not going to argue one yard this way or the other. What IS interesting is that he has NO field goals attempted from 1-19 yards, so this tells us that Navy does not believe in giving up a shot for a touchdown. But from 20-29 yards he is perfect at 6-6. From 30-39 yards out he is 5 of 6...not bad at all. Further, he is 3-4 from 40 to 49 yards out. This seems to be a pretty accurate kicker and someone you want when you need a last second field goal.
So having said all that, who has the advantage? Will Navy play “down” since they already have a bowl locked up, while Notre Dame plays with everything to gain? Will Notre Dame run into a problem they have had all year, in losing away games and to better competition? Will Navy look at this game as a great accomplishment in beating Notre Dame and possibly winning 10 games this year, or will Notre Dame play “up” and qualify for a bowl? Lots of things to be seen on this game.
So…who will win? The stats say this will be close, maybe by the foot of a kicker, but hey, when does the games ever go by what the stats say?
Ball State Football
Where will Ball State Go?
To the BCS Championship……
Well, maybe not, a TON of stuff has to happen for them to have any kind of dream of going. I mean, EVERYBODY has to lose for Ball State to get into the BCS.
But in light of their win the other night, and a 10-0 record, it is possible they could be 13-0 before a bowl. We KNOW they are going to a bowl, one of about 51 teams currently now eligible for a bowl, but where will they go?
Let’s talk about that.
The MAC, if I am correct, has contractual affiliations to 3 bowls: the GMAC Bowl, the Motor City Bowl and the International Bowl. It’s kinda hard for me to tell you the order of importance without taking a serious look at it, but if the premise is that the lesser bowls are usually played early, then the Motor City Bowl seems to be the least of the three, and may potentially have a MAC vs. a very low ranked Big 10 team.
If we go on the idea that a 10-0 Ball State is THE best team right now in the conference, then we’d have to at LEAST put them in the best MAC bowl game. It is possible that the International Bowl in Canada would put Ball State against a Big East team, OR they could play in the GMAC Bowl vs. a Conference USA Team… personally, I’d like to see Ball State against a Big East team, because CUSA just isn’t making the noise that the MAC, WAC or MWC has this year.
So IF Ball State wins out, they would be going to maybe the International Bowl in Canada against a team like maybe Connecticut or Cincinnati. Interesting. But the problem is that it would be a huge drop for the hopes that this team has. How can you be 10-0 (and a possible 13-0) and not get a better shot at a better bowl?
There was discussion on “Around the Horn” about whether Ball State deserves to be in the BCS Bowls…sadly I just can’t put them there. With Utah, Boise State, TCU and BYU having much tougher schedules, and with Utah and Boise State also undefeated, I just can’t put Ball State past those teams. So unless those teams lose, there is no way Ball State can participate in the BCS Bowls.
But there has GOT to be a better bowl for them, right? Well, you have to remember that they are contractually obligated to those aforementioned bowls, so it’s not really their call. It’s not like they can petition the Cotton Bowl in Dallas Texas and play there, because every bowl has particular teams and conferences they are contracted to. And if you notice, many of those bowls are contracted not just by conference, but by LOCATION.
Why is this important? Because bowl committees want teams that are close enough to sell tickets. Nobody wants to have a bowl on national television where half the seats are empty. Remember folks this is about MONEY, so the bowls that are affiliated with the MAC are also based near that conference’s area.
Ball State is located in Indiana. The Motor City Bowl is located in Detroit, Michigan. The GMAC Bowl is located in Mobile Alabama, about 670 miles and the International Bowl is…well, it’s in Canada. But it’s actually CLOSER by almost 300 miles than Mobile.
This is important because a bowl wants to know of the team, in this case, Ball State, can sell enough tickets to make this a profitable venture. Remember, it’s about money folks, regardless of your record.
So Ball State might be stuck in a small bowl because of contractual obligations and location, and the only way into the BCS bowls is if they first handle their business and go 13-0 AND both Utah AND Boise State lose. It’s gonna be tough because Ball State deserves better, but may be seen either in Canada or in Mobile, Alabama. I don’t see them in the Motor City Bowl, because this bowl is too soon to showcase Ball State. We will see what the future holds.
To the BCS Championship……
Well, maybe not, a TON of stuff has to happen for them to have any kind of dream of going. I mean, EVERYBODY has to lose for Ball State to get into the BCS.
But in light of their win the other night, and a 10-0 record, it is possible they could be 13-0 before a bowl. We KNOW they are going to a bowl, one of about 51 teams currently now eligible for a bowl, but where will they go?
Let’s talk about that.
The MAC, if I am correct, has contractual affiliations to 3 bowls: the GMAC Bowl, the Motor City Bowl and the International Bowl. It’s kinda hard for me to tell you the order of importance without taking a serious look at it, but if the premise is that the lesser bowls are usually played early, then the Motor City Bowl seems to be the least of the three, and may potentially have a MAC vs. a very low ranked Big 10 team.
If we go on the idea that a 10-0 Ball State is THE best team right now in the conference, then we’d have to at LEAST put them in the best MAC bowl game. It is possible that the International Bowl in Canada would put Ball State against a Big East team, OR they could play in the GMAC Bowl vs. a Conference USA Team… personally, I’d like to see Ball State against a Big East team, because CUSA just isn’t making the noise that the MAC, WAC or MWC has this year.
So IF Ball State wins out, they would be going to maybe the International Bowl in Canada against a team like maybe Connecticut or Cincinnati. Interesting. But the problem is that it would be a huge drop for the hopes that this team has. How can you be 10-0 (and a possible 13-0) and not get a better shot at a better bowl?
There was discussion on “Around the Horn” about whether Ball State deserves to be in the BCS Bowls…sadly I just can’t put them there. With Utah, Boise State, TCU and BYU having much tougher schedules, and with Utah and Boise State also undefeated, I just can’t put Ball State past those teams. So unless those teams lose, there is no way Ball State can participate in the BCS Bowls.
But there has GOT to be a better bowl for them, right? Well, you have to remember that they are contractually obligated to those aforementioned bowls, so it’s not really their call. It’s not like they can petition the Cotton Bowl in Dallas Texas and play there, because every bowl has particular teams and conferences they are contracted to. And if you notice, many of those bowls are contracted not just by conference, but by LOCATION.
Why is this important? Because bowl committees want teams that are close enough to sell tickets. Nobody wants to have a bowl on national television where half the seats are empty. Remember folks this is about MONEY, so the bowls that are affiliated with the MAC are also based near that conference’s area.
Ball State is located in Indiana. The Motor City Bowl is located in Detroit, Michigan. The GMAC Bowl is located in Mobile Alabama, about 670 miles and the International Bowl is…well, it’s in Canada. But it’s actually CLOSER by almost 300 miles than Mobile.
This is important because a bowl wants to know of the team, in this case, Ball State, can sell enough tickets to make this a profitable venture. Remember, it’s about money folks, regardless of your record.
So Ball State might be stuck in a small bowl because of contractual obligations and location, and the only way into the BCS bowls is if they first handle their business and go 13-0 AND both Utah AND Boise State lose. It’s gonna be tough because Ball State deserves better, but may be seen either in Canada or in Mobile, Alabama. I don’t see them in the Motor City Bowl, because this bowl is too soon to showcase Ball State. We will see what the future holds.
Top 10 NFL teams week 10
NFL Top 10 Teams, after week 10
Some things change, some things stay the same with the top teams in the NFL. As the season goes on, you see a bit of shuffling as the games become even more important. There MIGHT be two teams that the media has already put in the Superbowl, but even if you go with that, there are a lot of teams fighting for the chance to get to the playoffs. So let’s count down the top 10 teams of the NFL, as of the end of week 10, going into week 11.
Before I begin, I need to make one addition. Because there were so many 6-3 teams, it was tough for me to decide how to rank them, and because of that, one team had to be left out of the top 10. Rather than ignore them, I decided to add them on this week, making them the 11th best team in the NFL. So we will start there:
#11 Baltimore Ravens (6-3)
In the land of the 6-3 teams, this one probably ranks at the bottom. Why? When I look at the quality wins, I only see one, that being their win over Miami. I know the Dolphins are not the best team around, but they are quality this year. For the Ravens to beat them means something, but losing to the Steelers, Titans and Colts hurt. And with games against FIVE tough teams, it may be hard for the Ravens to make it to the playoffs. Imagine playing the Giants, Eagles, Redskins, Steelers and Cowboys, and tell me what you think?
#10 Atlanta Falcons (6-3)
Nobody saw this team rising the way they have this year, and it is possible that the Falcons can see the post season. With a 6-3 record, they have quality wins over Green Bay and Chicago, but some may argue the strength of that division. With losses to Tampa Bay, the Panthers and the Eagles, they are going to have a tough time winning their own division. They’ll get a chance since they play both Tampa Bay and Carolina again, with Denver also on the schedule. It’s possible we could see them in post season, so watch out.
#9 Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3)
The Steelers have had a rough year so far, losing to some of the better teams of the NFL, but also winning a couple as well. Wins over the Ravens and Redskins are big feathers in the Steelers chance to make a solid run in the playoffs. The problem isn’t whether they get in or not, it’s where they will be seeded. Losses to the Giants, Colts and Eagles make them touchable, and with games against the Patriots, Cowboys, Ravens and Titans will test these guys to decide if they are one of the three best AFC teams, or one that just limps in at the end.
#8 Arizona Cardinals (6-3)
This is one of those stories that you kinda root for, with the sudden success of these guys. Granted they come out of an uber-soft division, but they still have to win. They have quality wins over the Bills and the Cowboys, but also quality losses to the Jets, Redskins and Panthers. We’re going to see how good they are when they play the Giants, Eagles and the Patriots. If the Cardinals were an AFC team, they’d be a lock to the playoffs, but because they are in the NFL, that is not guaranteed. We’re hoping that this is a good team, instead of waiting for the other shoe to drop…and the Cardinals end up outside looking in.
#7 New England Patriots (6-3)
We know injuries are a major factor of why this team is where they are now, but the same can be said for many other teams. While the Pats have wins over Denver and Buffalo, both of those teams have taken a fall lately. With losses to Miami and the Colts, we see that this is a team that can be beaten. Many teams would love to have revenge on the Pats for their past success, and with games upcoming against the Dolphins, Steelers, Cardinals and Bills, every game might as well be either an AFC Championship or a Superbowl.
#6 Washington Redskins (6-3)
The Skins are slipping, after once being at the top of the NFC. In a very competitive conference, the margin for error is paper thin for any team. With key losses to the Giants and the Steelers, they can still rest on the fact that it takes the cream of the crop to beat them. Their wins over the Cardinals, Cowboys and Eagles are very credible, and we certainly would have had them higher if not for that loss to the Rams. But the Redskins’ schedule does not get easier by any means. They must face each of their division foes once more, and also face the Ravens. Playoff team? Maybe, if they can handle their business.
#5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3)
I actually should have put this team even higher, but the strikes against this team the number of losses. Granted they lost to Denver and Dallas, but most will say those are quality losses. But of the 6-3 teams, the Buccaneers have defeated more quality teams than anyone else. This includes Atlanta, Chicago, Green Bay and Carolina. If they can take care of business, they are easily in the NFC playoffs. They must face Atlanta and Carolina again, but we could see a 10-win season for Tampa Bay before it is all over…perhaps more than 10 wins. This is a pretty good team that will make a mark in the NFC this year.
#4 New York Jets (6-3)
I never thought I’d put the Jets as the best 6-3 team in the NFL, which is very odd. But in a year where the AFC is wide open, the Jets have just as good a chance at winning as anyone else in the AFC. Ok, so the pitiful Oakland Raiders beat them, I know, but they do have a quality loss to the Patriots, and have quality wins over the Dolphins, Cardinals and Bills. This is a team that may find themselves in control of the AFC East if they can beat the Patriots. And with remaining games against decent AFC teams, they have a strong shot into the playoffs. However, we can’t ignore the game vs. the Titans coming up, and they still have to beat the Patriots, Dolphins and Bills once more. I didn’t say it was easy, but the Jets seem to have the best shot at making this work and surprising the NFL.
#3 Carolina Panthers (7-2)
This is going to be interesting because the Panthers almost gave the Raiders the game last week, so you wonder how good this team REALLY is. Of their two losses, one came to Tampa Bay, and the Panthers have quality wins over the Bears, Falcons and Cardinals. But when you look ahead, they have a very tough road. They face the Falcons again, as well as Green Bay, Tampa Bay, Denver and the Giants. Five tough games, and this from a team that struggled against the Raiders…the jury is still out on these guys, but they do have great offensive weapons. We just don’t want to be flipping coins to decide if they will win or not.
#2 New York Giants (8-1)
I actually wanted to put the Giants at #1 because to me, their schedule has been much harder. They barely escaped the Eagles, but as they say, a win is a win. Putting aside the loss to the Browns, the Giants have had a tough road, and have won nearly every game. But the Giants have a very, VERY hard road ahead of them. They face the Ravens next, then the Cardinals. After that, they face divisional foes Redskins, Eagles and Cowboys, in that order, before facing the Panthers and the Vikings. Can ANY team get through that kinda schedule? A slide could put the Giants right out of the playoffs, so they must take great care the next several games. We don’t envy the Giants at all.
#1 Tennessee Titans (9-0)
Yes this is still the number one team by default, but I will give them a little more credit than last week. While the Titans have defeated the Bears and Packers and Ravens, they have yet to beat a team that is making a serious run into the playoffs. Against my #11 ranked Ravens, they win by 3. Against unranked Green Bay, a 3 point win in overtime and against unranked Chicago, a 7 point win. Wins nevertheless, but ones that let you know that this team is not made of steel.
The Titans play the Jaguars, in what could be a close game, even with a sub par team as the Jags. After that, they play the Jets before getting some super soft cream puffs in the Lions, Browns and Texans. Then they end the season against the Steelers and the seemingly improving Colts. Can they go undefeated…sure. Will they? No.
Their schedule isn’t as tough as the Giants and I really wanted to put the Titans in #2 but I cannot fault the Titans for winning the games on their schedule. They did exactly what they were supposed to do…win. And right now, they are the only team in the NFL with a perfect record. So they deserve the top spot…for now.
We’ll see how things shape up in a few days, see ya then!
Some things change, some things stay the same with the top teams in the NFL. As the season goes on, you see a bit of shuffling as the games become even more important. There MIGHT be two teams that the media has already put in the Superbowl, but even if you go with that, there are a lot of teams fighting for the chance to get to the playoffs. So let’s count down the top 10 teams of the NFL, as of the end of week 10, going into week 11.
Before I begin, I need to make one addition. Because there were so many 6-3 teams, it was tough for me to decide how to rank them, and because of that, one team had to be left out of the top 10. Rather than ignore them, I decided to add them on this week, making them the 11th best team in the NFL. So we will start there:
#11 Baltimore Ravens (6-3)
In the land of the 6-3 teams, this one probably ranks at the bottom. Why? When I look at the quality wins, I only see one, that being their win over Miami. I know the Dolphins are not the best team around, but they are quality this year. For the Ravens to beat them means something, but losing to the Steelers, Titans and Colts hurt. And with games against FIVE tough teams, it may be hard for the Ravens to make it to the playoffs. Imagine playing the Giants, Eagles, Redskins, Steelers and Cowboys, and tell me what you think?
#10 Atlanta Falcons (6-3)
Nobody saw this team rising the way they have this year, and it is possible that the Falcons can see the post season. With a 6-3 record, they have quality wins over Green Bay and Chicago, but some may argue the strength of that division. With losses to Tampa Bay, the Panthers and the Eagles, they are going to have a tough time winning their own division. They’ll get a chance since they play both Tampa Bay and Carolina again, with Denver also on the schedule. It’s possible we could see them in post season, so watch out.
#9 Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3)
The Steelers have had a rough year so far, losing to some of the better teams of the NFL, but also winning a couple as well. Wins over the Ravens and Redskins are big feathers in the Steelers chance to make a solid run in the playoffs. The problem isn’t whether they get in or not, it’s where they will be seeded. Losses to the Giants, Colts and Eagles make them touchable, and with games against the Patriots, Cowboys, Ravens and Titans will test these guys to decide if they are one of the three best AFC teams, or one that just limps in at the end.
#8 Arizona Cardinals (6-3)
This is one of those stories that you kinda root for, with the sudden success of these guys. Granted they come out of an uber-soft division, but they still have to win. They have quality wins over the Bills and the Cowboys, but also quality losses to the Jets, Redskins and Panthers. We’re going to see how good they are when they play the Giants, Eagles and the Patriots. If the Cardinals were an AFC team, they’d be a lock to the playoffs, but because they are in the NFL, that is not guaranteed. We’re hoping that this is a good team, instead of waiting for the other shoe to drop…and the Cardinals end up outside looking in.
#7 New England Patriots (6-3)
We know injuries are a major factor of why this team is where they are now, but the same can be said for many other teams. While the Pats have wins over Denver and Buffalo, both of those teams have taken a fall lately. With losses to Miami and the Colts, we see that this is a team that can be beaten. Many teams would love to have revenge on the Pats for their past success, and with games upcoming against the Dolphins, Steelers, Cardinals and Bills, every game might as well be either an AFC Championship or a Superbowl.
#6 Washington Redskins (6-3)
The Skins are slipping, after once being at the top of the NFC. In a very competitive conference, the margin for error is paper thin for any team. With key losses to the Giants and the Steelers, they can still rest on the fact that it takes the cream of the crop to beat them. Their wins over the Cardinals, Cowboys and Eagles are very credible, and we certainly would have had them higher if not for that loss to the Rams. But the Redskins’ schedule does not get easier by any means. They must face each of their division foes once more, and also face the Ravens. Playoff team? Maybe, if they can handle their business.
#5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3)
I actually should have put this team even higher, but the strikes against this team the number of losses. Granted they lost to Denver and Dallas, but most will say those are quality losses. But of the 6-3 teams, the Buccaneers have defeated more quality teams than anyone else. This includes Atlanta, Chicago, Green Bay and Carolina. If they can take care of business, they are easily in the NFC playoffs. They must face Atlanta and Carolina again, but we could see a 10-win season for Tampa Bay before it is all over…perhaps more than 10 wins. This is a pretty good team that will make a mark in the NFC this year.
#4 New York Jets (6-3)
I never thought I’d put the Jets as the best 6-3 team in the NFL, which is very odd. But in a year where the AFC is wide open, the Jets have just as good a chance at winning as anyone else in the AFC. Ok, so the pitiful Oakland Raiders beat them, I know, but they do have a quality loss to the Patriots, and have quality wins over the Dolphins, Cardinals and Bills. This is a team that may find themselves in control of the AFC East if they can beat the Patriots. And with remaining games against decent AFC teams, they have a strong shot into the playoffs. However, we can’t ignore the game vs. the Titans coming up, and they still have to beat the Patriots, Dolphins and Bills once more. I didn’t say it was easy, but the Jets seem to have the best shot at making this work and surprising the NFL.
#3 Carolina Panthers (7-2)
This is going to be interesting because the Panthers almost gave the Raiders the game last week, so you wonder how good this team REALLY is. Of their two losses, one came to Tampa Bay, and the Panthers have quality wins over the Bears, Falcons and Cardinals. But when you look ahead, they have a very tough road. They face the Falcons again, as well as Green Bay, Tampa Bay, Denver and the Giants. Five tough games, and this from a team that struggled against the Raiders…the jury is still out on these guys, but they do have great offensive weapons. We just don’t want to be flipping coins to decide if they will win or not.
#2 New York Giants (8-1)
I actually wanted to put the Giants at #1 because to me, their schedule has been much harder. They barely escaped the Eagles, but as they say, a win is a win. Putting aside the loss to the Browns, the Giants have had a tough road, and have won nearly every game. But the Giants have a very, VERY hard road ahead of them. They face the Ravens next, then the Cardinals. After that, they face divisional foes Redskins, Eagles and Cowboys, in that order, before facing the Panthers and the Vikings. Can ANY team get through that kinda schedule? A slide could put the Giants right out of the playoffs, so they must take great care the next several games. We don’t envy the Giants at all.
#1 Tennessee Titans (9-0)
Yes this is still the number one team by default, but I will give them a little more credit than last week. While the Titans have defeated the Bears and Packers and Ravens, they have yet to beat a team that is making a serious run into the playoffs. Against my #11 ranked Ravens, they win by 3. Against unranked Green Bay, a 3 point win in overtime and against unranked Chicago, a 7 point win. Wins nevertheless, but ones that let you know that this team is not made of steel.
The Titans play the Jaguars, in what could be a close game, even with a sub par team as the Jags. After that, they play the Jets before getting some super soft cream puffs in the Lions, Browns and Texans. Then they end the season against the Steelers and the seemingly improving Colts. Can they go undefeated…sure. Will they? No.
Their schedule isn’t as tough as the Giants and I really wanted to put the Titans in #2 but I cannot fault the Titans for winning the games on their schedule. They did exactly what they were supposed to do…win. And right now, they are the only team in the NFL with a perfect record. So they deserve the top spot…for now.
We’ll see how things shape up in a few days, see ya then!
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