Navy vs Notre Dame

Can Navy Beat Notre Dame?

Or you can easily flip this and say, “Can Notre Dame Beat Navy”, depending on who you pull for.

This is an interesting blog because some of you who have read my blogs know that the Irish is not my favorite team, and some fans are quite fanatical about their team. It’s like you can’t say anything wrong about Notre Dame because they are holy…

Yeah, right.

But whether I like them or not, they still have to try to qualify for a bowl, after being shut out by Boston College. They need one more win, and have three shots at it… let’s go ahead and rule out Southern Cal…they AIN’T getting that one.

And Syracuse is bad enough to almost guarantee that win to Notre Dame. But before both of those, is the game vs. Navy. So the question is, who will win?

Why is this game important? For Notre Dame, they need the win like Winnie the Pooh needs honey. They need this like Smurfs need smurf berries. They need this like Scooby needs Scooby Snacks.

The Irish must win 6 games to qualify for a bowl, and right now they have 5 wins. We know that even with just 6 wins, Notre Dame will likely get a better bowl than a team like Ball State (the rich get richer). But they still have to qualify, and this game means a lot to them.

For Navy, they are already bowl eligible at 6-3, but oh what could have been, losing to 10-0 Ball State 35-23, and to then ranked Pittsburgh by 3 touchdowns… and then there is that Duke loss…

Navy is already slated for a bowl, the Congressional Bowl, vs. a low ranked ACC team (oh by the way, 8 are currently eligible). Maybe a Virginia or maybe Miami? So it is already settled for them, which COULD create some problems. Often times once you know your fate, you lose the edge to play hard. This could play into Notre Dame’s hands.

But beating Notre Dame is a feather in anyone’s cap, regardless of what their record is. So Navy would have to get up big time for this game, especially since Navy will be home, and Notre Dame does not play well on the road. Navy COULD possibly get 10 wins if they beat Notre Dame, and win their last two games of the year and the bowl.

So what else can we go on? Here are some stats:

Notre Dame is 69th in the nation in scoring, at 24.3 a game; Navy is 42nd at 29.3 This almost spells a close game, where one possession will make the difference between a win for Navy or one for the Irish.

Notre Dame is 95th in the country in rushing yards per game at 115.6. Navy is #2 in the nation with 308 yards per game rushing. If Notre Dame cannot stop the run, that option game plan is going to walk all over Notre Dame.

Notre Dame is 21st in the nation in passing yards per game at 259.4, while Navy is better than ONLY Army, passing 66.9 yards per game. We know that is by design, but does this mean Navy can stop the pass?

Notre Dame has 52 penalties for a total of 455 yards, while Navy has only 28 penalties for 246 yards… discipline will be a major factor in who will control this game. As we have already seen, the scores between the two are only one possession apart.

Well, if it comes down to that, then let’s look at the kicking game:

Notre Dame’s kicker has made 27 of 27 extra points, and have made 8 of 15 field goals…ouch. His longest was 48 yards, which is good, but he is 4-8 when it comes to field goals between 40 and 49 yards. He’s automatic from 20-29 yards, making 3-3 but after that, it kinda gets dicey. What this may spell out is that Notre Dame does not have a very good kicking game, making only 5-12 outside the 30 yard line. If it comes down to a field goal…watch out.

Navy’s kicker has some interesting stats as well. He is 29 of 30, which puts him on par with Notre Dame’s kicker. But he kicks 14-16, much better than his counterpart. His longest field goal was 49 yards, one yard longer than Notre Dame’s kicker but we are not going to argue one yard this way or the other. What IS interesting is that he has NO field goals attempted from 1-19 yards, so this tells us that Navy does not believe in giving up a shot for a touchdown. But from 20-29 yards he is perfect at 6-6. From 30-39 yards out he is 5 of 6...not bad at all. Further, he is 3-4 from 40 to 49 yards out. This seems to be a pretty accurate kicker and someone you want when you need a last second field goal.

So having said all that, who has the advantage? Will Navy play “down” since they already have a bowl locked up, while Notre Dame plays with everything to gain? Will Notre Dame run into a problem they have had all year, in losing away games and to better competition? Will Navy look at this game as a great accomplishment in beating Notre Dame and possibly winning 10 games this year, or will Notre Dame play “up” and qualify for a bowl? Lots of things to be seen on this game.

So…who will win? The stats say this will be close, maybe by the foot of a kicker, but hey, when does the games ever go by what the stats say?