Saturday, October 10, 2009

ACC Football Soap Opera

ACC Football Soap Opera

The fates of four teams will be seriously forged today as there are two big matchups in the ACC… and I ain’t talking about Duke vs. NC State!

Boston College, a team snubbed my many, plays Virginia Tech, a strong team in the top 10 trying to solidify itself for a major bowl bid. Georgia Tech, barely clinging on the top 25 list, travels to play Florida State, who has inherited a whirlwind of criticism from jokers who know nothing about football.

Three of these teams are currently 4-1, and one of these teams ran out BYU out of their own house. Collectively these teams last year were 37-17, which averages out to about a strong 9-4 record. This year their records combined are 14-6. Yet after you get through those numbers, you see there is some SERIOUS stories that these teams must address.

The cover over this is that the ACC has been criticized for being weak, second only to the Big East. Some idiots believe a team like Boise State can join the ACC and mop them all up…

Yeah, you TRY that and see how fast your fame goes out the window….

But the truth is that the ACC has not been in the top 10 at the end of the year, and it is imperative that somebody from the conference takes that step. Last year we thought Clemson would be that team until they went belly up. This year the thought was that Virginia Tech would be that team, until they lost to Alabama. Then comes Miami, with the promise of bringing the “U” back, but lost to Virginia Tech. And then Florida State whips up on BYU, only to have a crushing defeat afterwards and to fall 2-3.

Each of these four teams playing today has much to prove, at the expense of another team.

Boston College is 4-1, but losing big to Clemson hurt them. Beating Northeastern and Kent State means nothing, so their only credible wins are against Wake Forest and Florida State. But they sit at the top of the division and thus needs this win on the road at Virginia Tech to get on the top 25 poll and make some noise for a possible BCS game.

But Virginia Tech is still stinging from the early season loss to Alabama. Still, with wins over Nebraska and Miami, they are clearly a strong team, perhaps THE team, to beat. It is quite possible that the ACC is hinging their reputation on this team to run the tables and take a stab at the National Title…it would bring great honor to the conference.

Meanwhile Georgia Tech sits on the top 25 but some are wondering how long this triple option thing is gonna work. Are teams getting hip to it? Sure they are 4-1 but those wins come against Jacksonville State, which was simplicity in the making. They beat Clemson but I saw that game and they very nearly lost that because the triple option gave out of gas. And beating UNC is beating a mid-card team. And Mississippi State…well, they are like the Duke of the SEC. In short, these are not that impressive. Is Georgia Tech a good team, sure, but how long before the rest of the conference understands the option and begins to counter? Some think that time is now.

And one of those teams that has to think in the now is Florida State, who has come across very heavy criticism from the trustees. To me this is foolish for some jerk who thinks Bobby Bowden ought to step down…some gratitude for ya. A few years ago the media on ESPN and everywhere else was trying to kick Joe Paterno out of Penn State…idiots. Let the man coach as long as he wants…he BUILT that team. Same as Bowden. But it is imperative that they start winning, the problem is they don’t seem to play so well in their home state. Three of their 4 losses last year was in the state of Florida. Two of their 3 losses this year was in the state of Florida…and they got a home game today. If there is any chance of salvaging a decent season, it has to be now. Mind you, they lost 4 games last year, which most teams will take in a heartbeat. If they can get past Georgia Tech, I can still see FSU winning at least 8 games, and if they get on a good roll, that final game vs. Florida will be a classic.

These four ACC teams have much to prove, and they can’t wait for another loss to begin the road upward…it begins now, and a loss will be devastating to any of these teams. A loss to Boston College closes them out of the top 25 for the next few weeks, a loss to Virginia Tech cuts the ACC down as a real contender. A loss to Georgia Tech might spell the mysteries defined of the triple option, and a loss for Florida State could speed up the growing poison of forcing a great legend from his team.

We shall learn more today as these games are played out…

Wisconsin vs Ohio State

Wisconsin vs. Ohio State

Hmm, let’s jump into this with two questions: who will win, and why is Wisconsin, with a perfect record, not ranked?

Let’s start there first.

The Badgers were 7-6 last year, in a most disappointing season which had a 4 game losing streak in the middle of that year. Much was expected of this team, and little returned. But why no love for the Badgers?

Ok, they beat Northern Illinois 28-20, ok I get it, a little too close but a win is a win, right?

They beat Fresno State in overtime 34-31 at home… not bad, I mean, Fresno is a quality team, but still, an overtime win is kinda close.

Beating Wofford 44-14? Now that’s just wrong!

But beating Michigan State at home 38-30 is better…still close for comfort.

And beating Minnesota on the road 31-28 is still close, but again, a win is a win.

These are some wins that many would wonder about, and considering that Minnesota is their best win so far, I can see why the jury is still out on the Badgers. But five wins is still a heck of a lot, I think they deserved to get on the top 25 because those are decent wins…except that Wofford one.

(oh, and just to throw this in, Wisconsin lost 4 games on the road…)

So now we have Ohio State, ranked in the top 10, with that embarrassing loss to USC, one I really thought they could win. They were scared at the beginning of the season to Navy, but since those first two games, have taken charge. Shutting out Toledo and Illinois, the defense of the Buckeyes are proving that they are taking no prisoners. And a 33-14 win over Indiana on the road helps their conference record…

(on a side note, why don’t the Big 10 add one more team and create a conference championship…)

Do I think Ohio State can lose… sure. This Wisconsin team is clearly better than last year, but I don’t see them going undefeated…that mantle rested with Penn State and they dropped it. Ohio State has far more to gain with a win, even though a possible 6-0 Wisconsin team will vault them in the standings. And remember, Ohio State beat them last year only by 3 points…but it was a road game for the Buckeyes. OSU by 8.

Alabama vs Mississippi

Alabama vs. Mississippi

Now that we have seen that Ole Miss isn’t that top 5 team some thought they were, now it is time for them to show that they are at least a top 25 team.

And on the other end, this is Alabama’s golden chance to make a serious statement in the SEC and in the nation.

I’ll be honest, I am not totally sold on Alabama, even though they were 12-2 last year. The Crimson Tide beat a Clemson team that had nothing in them last year, and the only legit wins for the Tide was beating Ole Miss by 4 at home, and LSU on the road by 6. I gotta be honest, I am not too impressed by the record last year, and it showed when they played Florida and lost…then played Utah…and lost.

But beating Virginia Tech is impressive, considering what the Hokies have done so far this year, so I cannot argue on that. And beating Arkansas and Kentucky do count for conference wins, but are they a true top 5 team…I am not too sure about that. While the SEC was one of the two best conferences last year, there were a heck of a lot of teams that submerged rather than rose to the surface. Alabama could have possibly taken advantage of being at the right place, at the right time.

But the same can be said for Mississippi. Sure they were 9-4 last year, but they did lose to Vandy, South Carolina and Alabama…oh they also lost to Wake Forest too. Much of their fanfare was based on the fact that they did beat Florida, and also beat a good Texas Tech team last year…but all hopes of an undefeated season ended early when South Carolina punched them in the guts this year, kicking them off the top 10 polls. Now hanging on at #20, they need this win to prove that last year was no fluke.

If Miss can beat Florida, on the road, then why can’t they beat Alabama…at home? This could very possibly be a game that Ole Miss can win, and the victory at home will have the entire state of Mississippi rejoicing. But can they do it?

I have no qualms believing ole Miss is a top 25 team, considering who they beat last year and who they have beaten this year, I see them about right where they should be, about #20 if not a spot or two lower. But a win here validates any moves up, and considering how tough the SEC is this year, that says a heck of a lot.

But do I believe Alabama is a top 5 team? Do I believe they can beat USC, or Penn State, or teams like that? Well, they did beat Virginia Tech, so there is great credibility, but I think they have what it takes to beat Mississippi. Remember, they won by 4 points last year at home, how will the Tide do on the road? Mississippi has lost a few at home, so it’s not like a clear cut home field advantage, but I will nod ever so slightly to the Rebels for some advantage.

But I still pick Alabama to win, by 5 points…yeah I said FIVE!

Colorado vs Texas

Colorado vs. #2 Texas

Now is the time to put up or shut up…for the Buffaloes.

I have blogged a few times this year and last year about how I personally felt that the Colorado Buffaloes have seriously underachieved mainly because the team seems to have been built around one person…the coach’s son, who just happens to be the starting quarterback.

Say what you want about Cody Hawkins’ numbers, the fact remains that this team has done very poorly ever since his dad, Dan Hawkins, got the job. I am all for a father looking out for his son, but when it comes at an expense to an entire university, screw that.

I used to be a big fan of Colorado during the Kordell Stewart days, but the changes the university has gone through leave little impression with me. Sometimes a school makes a “righteous” move in coach changes, but the act was less than righteous. So here is Dan Hawkins, a successful coach from Boise State who comes in with the family oriented style of play. But the wins has been as dysfunctional as “The Simpsons”…

(or “Family Guy” if you watch that too)

So here comes Colorado, to visit Texas today, they bring in their 1-3 record, with their only win at home vs. Wyoming. Losses to Toledo, Colorado State and West Virginia have the Buffaloes on the ropes, looking at perhaps another dismal season…which could seriously threaten the head coach’s job…and maybe his son’s position.

Now, I don’t want Colorado fans to think that I am “hating” on Cody Hawkins, that is not true, he is a decent QB, but is that because Dan Hawkins focused all his resources to MAKE him look decent? I mean, he averages about 3-4 wins a YEAR, that does not cut it in a BCS conference.

With 8 games remaining on the schedule for Colorado, they need 5 more wins quick, fast and in a hurry. After Texas they get #16 Kansas at home, #24 Missouri at home (although no longer ranked because of that loss to Nebraska), and they also have Oklahoma State on the road and Nebraska at home…those two teams are ranked too.

Nobody is expecting Colorado to win, but let’s look at Texas anyway…

Texas is #2 in the land, and will have an eye on that Florida/LSU matchup as well as that Alabama/Mississippi game, but they need to focus on crushing Colorado. Their previous games have been expected wins, but nothing stands out to show that this team is for real…I mean, for REALLY real. I have no qualms of them being #2 because they are that good, it’s just that we have not seen them in a big time game yet. They did beat Texas Tech 34-24, so there is some flair there, but they can’t overlook Colorado. I think Texas needs to send a message that they deserve to be either #2, or possibly #1 if they can beat Colorado by more than 21 points. If they do that, the voters might have to reconsider who they think is the best in the land.

Texas as a huge factor going for it…their starting quarterback is not injured as bad as Florida and Oklahoma. Sometimes the best team is the healthiest, and this is a game Texas needs to win big, but stay healthy.

So there is no question, I have Texas winning this by 17 points, but they need a big beat down to impress voters to possibly push them to #1.

Duke vs NC State college football

Duke vs. NC State

How DARE you make me watch Duke play football!

Oh well, football is football….might as well take a look at this one.

Being in the middle of ACC country, this game will be on I think ESPNU, because it certainly isn’t a top level game. But even in games like this, there is a lot at stake. Without a whole lot of fanfare, let’s take a quick look at this game and see who had the advantage:

Both teams sit next to last in the standings of their division, but that could be misleading since conference games are really just getting started. NC State actually has a winning record at 3-2 after having a very rough 6-7 season last year. This year they start off paying tribute to baseball by losing to South Carolina 7-3 in a low scoring evening.

Cheap home wins over Murray State and Gardner-Webb bumped them to 2-1 and made it look like they are a rocket in scoring, having outscored their opponents 110-21. And to beat Pittsburgh the next week, at home, was a strong indicator of how good this team could be, but winning 38-31 might have shown some weakness….is there any defense?

But the first road game of the Wolfpack proved to be fatal, losing to Wake Forest in a road game that actually was more like an hour drive or so. Outside of Raleigh, the Wolfpack seem to be powerless…so far. And today they stay home as the Blue Devils come to visit.

For Duke, their 2-3 record has been mentioned by a few people to be pretty good, that this team is a quality team….

Ok…wait a minute…Duke…Football…GOOD? Hulk not understand.

This was a team that lost to Richmond at the beginning of the year 24-16...this is a GOOD team? They did manage to rebound by beating Army 35-19, then got drilled by #22 Kansas 44-16 in a game more people would have watched if it was basketball than football.

And then there’s that “Gridiron Classic” that they shoved down our throats, when they played NC Central…come on folks, there was nothing classic in that game! But Duke wins, beating a historic black college football team 49-14.

But they did come close to beating #6 Virginia Tech, 34-26, so maybe there is hope. But I can’t buy into a 4-8 team from last year being “good” this year. You have to prove it with wins, not promises.

Duke had two valid wins last year, at home vs. Navy and on the road vs. Vanderbilt. Now neither of those two were top 15 caliber, but it is far better than beating some Division IAA school.

So who has the advantage? It is incredibly important for NC State to win their home games, because they have Boston College, Florida State and Virginia Tech on the road…could easily be 3 losses, especially since 4 of their 7 losses last year was on the road. Beating Duke would propel them in their standings for a minute.

Duke needs this win like I need a cold glass of Coca-Cola and a bag of hot chips while I watch today’s football games (yeah I know Pepsi is more of a southern drink, but screw that, I like Coca-Cola!)

But all the talk about winning means nothing if you can’t do it. Is Duke as good as they say? My only evidence to it is that they beat Army and NC Central…hardly a recommendation for a good team. But because State isn’t scaring anybody, this could possibly be a decent game. I might watch, depending on the other 4pm games, but I expect the home town to win…even though Durham and Raleigh are like 3 feet from one another.

NC State wins by 12.

Florida Gators vs LSU Tigers

Florida vs. LSU

This is a huge matchup where win or lose, Texas is sitting back and smiling. To Texas, they probably feel that if they can just let the SEC beat each other up, they will assure themselves of at the very least, a #2 spot on the polls. If LSU beats Florida, the Texas (assuming they win today as well) becomes the clear #1 team in the land. If not, they still hold on to #2.

Last year this contest might not have been so academic, but this year is different. With LSU now #4 in the polls, and with Florida, currently #1 but with some quarterback issues, AND playing at LSU, this can be a game that could knock Florida from the ranks of the undefeated.

Who has the advantage?

Florida comes in the defending National Champs, and to date is undefeated. The last time they lost was to Mississippi, and haven’t lost since. In fact their closest game was the National Championship game to Oklahoma, where they won by 7 points.

This year they had 3 home games, including the win over Tennessee, and their last game was a big time win over Kentucky on the road, but it may have cost them dearly, with starting quarterback Tim Tebow getting a concussion. Fortunately they had a bye week and had some time to get ready, but was it enough time? Some question whether Tebow should play, some say to lean to caution, but some insinuate that they will get him to play because it is a big time game.

The question they all have is whether their star player can play.

On the other side, LSU has risen in the ranks mainly because there had been so many upsets this year already. Remember, LSU was 8-5 last year, and one of those loses was on the road at Florida by 30. They also lost big to Georgia at home, then to Mississippi, Alabama and Arkansas…that’s 5 conference loses, and three of those were AT home.

To date, LSU beat Washington on the road 31-23, then beat Vanderbilt and Louisiana-Layfayette. They beat Mississippi State on the road by only 4, and then there’s that controversial (as utterly STUPID) call by the refs during the Georgia game that could very well have cost them that game. But LSU wins and runs out of the state like they stole something.

(mind you, I AM an LSU fan)

It seems that LSU is barely getting by these games, because outside of Georgia, none of these teams currently have a winning record, and we know how that Georgia game went down. Yes a win is a win, but the QUALITY of the win determines if LSU is truly a top 5 power, or a top 25 power. Now you can argue that Florida’s only foe thus far with a winning record was Troy, but I counter immediately by saying that this IS the defending NATIONAL CHAMPS. We know this is a great team.

I think the question comes down to 1) can Florida beat LSU with any quarterback, and 2) can a team that lost 5 games in LSU, all conference games, beat the defending National Champs. Beating Auburn and Mississippi State says nothing, since they won about 4 or 5 games last year, and beating South Carolina was a close game as well.

Folks, I think whether Tebow plays or not, the Florida Gators may be good enough to beat LSU, remember, this is a team that didn’t exactly protect their house last year, losing 3 home games and some of those other home games were a little too close for comfort.

But the X factor is emotion, how will LSU feel to have a chance to knock off the number one team in the land? It is quite possible that this could be part one of a two parter, since they could easily meet again in the SEC Championship. I am an LSU fan, and I have my LSU hat, but I think that with or without Tim Tebow, Florida has the advantage, and can win by 7 points….but if Tebow is healthy, this could be a 14 point win.