Thursday, October 15, 2009

NFL Top 10, after 5 (2009)

NFL Top 10, after 5

Had to do some changes here because of some great NFL games over the weekend.

I will jump right into this, since I took sometime to look at these teams. To make the top 10, I had to look at the 5 undefeated teams, the 4 teams with one loss, and also I had to look at 9 teams with 2 losses. Anywhere from 5-0 to 2-2 could have made my top 10 list. But after much debate and a few cups of coffee…and a DELICIOUS honey bun, here are my top 10 teams…

But wait! Before I begin, let me share with you one team that didn’t make the cut:

Philadelphia Eagles: Technically speaking, as a 3-1 team they should have been on the top 10, but I can’t put them there yet. They are just outside, looking in. Yes, the record is nice, but beating the Panthers, Chiefs and Buccaneers does not show a power in the NFC. Losing to the Saints is nothing to be ashamed of, but one wonders if this team is really healthy.

Now, let’s countdown the top 10:

#10 Baltimore Ravens: Oh what could have been if they had beaten the Patriots awhile back. At 3-2, I still think this is a very strong team, with a key win over the Chargers. Their losses come to the Patriots and the Bengals, both of which they were in. A few calls here or there and these same Ravens could be 4-1, maybe even 5-0, but there is much more games to play for these guys.

#9 New England Patriots: Is the king dead? Two losses in one year with Tom Brady? I still have this team in the top ten because they beat both the Ravens and the Falcons, two good squads. Losing to the Broncos may be the changing of the guard, but nobody has really man-handled the Pats yet. Still many more games to go, and experience is on their side.

#8 Chicago Bears: I rank this 3-1 team pretty low because their wins over the Steelers may SOUND good, but Pittsburgh seems to be struggling. Also, beating the Seahawks and Lions does not make front line news. Losing to the so-and-so Packers isn’t that great either. Beat the Vikings and then we are talking….

#7 Atlanta Falcons: I put the Falcons ahead of the Bears, even though both are 3-1 for a couple of reasons. Their loss to the Patriots is more credible than the Bear’s loss. And the Falcons beat the 49ers, a decent team, and the Dolphins, who are not so bad as some think. They have yet to play the Saints, and must see them twice. We will know much more about the Falcons then.

#6 Indianapolis Colts: Yeah, I know they are 5-0 and everybody is talking about how great Manning is, and I agree…but have you seen their opponents? The Colts beat the Jaguars, the Dolphins, the Cardinals, Seahawks and Titans…how many of these teams have a winning record? At this point, NONE. We have not seen the Colts truly tested, and until we do, I can’t put them any higher unless other circumstances change. A good team, yes, and by my list the THIRD best team in the AFC.

#5 New York Giants: Yes, another 5-0 team ranked lower than many thought. Last week I had them #1, but when you look at the body of work, and with Manning slightly injured, this could be a problem. Their wins are over the very troubled Redskins, the confusing Cowboys, the hapless Buccaneers, the lowly Chiefs and the “what the heck” Raiders…hardly a strong case for to be the best team in the NFL.

#4 Minnesota Vikings: Last week I had them #6, but the last three weeks they have beaten teams that are at least .500. This includes the Cardinals, Packers and 49ers. Minnesota is playing a tougher competition (though not by too much) than the Giants and the Colts. We know this will play itself out, but right now, I think Brett Farve and AP are worth the top 4 ranking.

#3 New Orleans Saints. I dropped the Saints one spot from last week simply because they are 4-0, not 5-0 like other teams. But I also dropped them one spot becaue their wins over the Lions and Bills don’t seem like so much, and the Eagles are not on my top 10 list. So their only big win was over the Jets, but they didn’t make my list this week either. Still I have them, as of now, as the best NFC team…Superbowl bound?

#2 Cincinnati Bengals: This 3-1 team is playing better than most 4-0 or 5-0 teams, and the wins prove it. I vault them up from #9 to number 2 because their body of work is impressive. They beat the Packers, who are at .500, they beat the defending Superbowl champs in the Steelers, they beat their rival the Browns (ok, not the hardest thing to do) and they beat the Ravens, who I have as #10 on my list. Their only loss comes to the….

#1 Denver Broncos: At 5-0, who would have thought that? I had the Broncos at #3 last week, even then believing they were the best AFC team, now they may well be the best team period. They beat the Bengals and the Patriots, two very quality wins. And let’s face it folks, with the Raiders and the Chiefs in the division, they seemed to be assured of at least 4 more wins. But the Chargers could make it interesting. Still, right now, who can deny the Broncos?

So that’s my list right now, always subject to change as the weeks go on. Now let’s have some fun this weekend with more football!!!!

Does Southern Cal have a shot at the BCS?

Can USC get to the BCS Title?

Quick Answer: Sure, they are within shot.

But it becomes slightly more complicated, and it begins with this weekend’s game vs. Notre Dame.

Southern Cal has this thing about losing one game and then getting all fired up for the rest of the year…that has already happened with the loss to Washington. Now with Southern Cal bounced out of the realm of the undefeated, they must claw their way back into the BCS Championship picture, and to be sure, there is time.

But there are several teams that stand in their way. They need only get to either #2, or of course, #1, to grab a part of that BCS shot. Here is the Rogue’s Gallery of foes that USC must overcome in order to get to the BCS Championship:

#25 Notre Dame: I guess whining has its purpose, since Charlie Weiss cried about why the Fighting Irish was not in the top 25...now they are. For USC to make a run, it begins with a road game vs. Notre Dame, and there are some who think it is possible for the Trojans to lose. They are weakest on the road, and this is not the dominant team some thought it was…after all they lost to Washington on the road. Simply put, a second loss destroys any chances to the BCS title game, so this weekend means everything.

Oregon State: Remember these guys…they beat USC last year. But now the Beavers come to visit, and USC needs redemption from that most embarrassing loss. USC tends to play well at home, but OSU has a winning record. The Pac 10 might be very tough to deal with, including their own members. USC can’t have a hangover from this weekend, win or lose to Notre Dame, because the competition rises after that.

#13 Oregon: A road game vs. a top 15 team will be a real test for USC to get back in the mix. If by this time they still have one loss, the wins over ND and OSU will have then inside the top 5. A win here will lock it down as an easy top 5 team, maybe even top 4.

Arizona State: Again, USC is touchable when they get on the road, as if they play down to the level of their competition. ASU is at this moment 3-2, so this is not a cupcake game. It will be interesting to see how this team will keep the intensity after playing three straight major games to them.

Stanford: Technically on the standings they are better than Southern Cal, but that is a technicality. Still, this is a game the Trojans cannot ignore, especially when you are talking about in state rivalries. In fact, by this time USC will be home the rest of the season, with their remaining games being either a home game, or against a team from California.

#5 Boise State: No, the Trojans don’t play them but they still factor into USC’s goal of getting to that title game. If USC continues to win, the strength of schedule will easily overtake Boise State. If Boise State loses even one game, their dreams will be dashed. But if USC can win the remaining games in a tougher conference, they will surely jump over Boise State.

#4 Virginia Tech: This will be another obstacle that USC cannot control. Some say that Virginia Tech might be able to run the tables and lock a BCS Title game. Both teams have one loss, and few will argue that the ACC is just as competitive as the Pac-10. If things stay the way they are, USC will have to go to style points to get some support. Beating their Pac-10 foes by 20 or more will impress the voters to think that if it came down to Virginia Tech and USC, then the Trojans might be slightly better. And with VA Tech’s schedule getting slightly easier, this may be the MO for USC.

#3 Texas: There are probably a ton of Southern Cal fans rooting for Oklahoma this weekend, because a loss to Texas will give USC some hope. If Texas runs the table, an undefeated Longhorns team will have an absolute shot in the Title game…no doubt about it. The Big 12 isn’t as powerful as it was last year, but no one will argue that an undefeated Texas squad is better than a 1 loss USC team. For any hope, USC has to hope that Texas loses at least one game…preferably this weekend.

EITHER #2 Alabama or #1 Florida: This problem will solve itself because these two teams must play each other sometime if they remain undefeated. Although they are not on the regular season schedule, they can meet in the SEC Championship game. USC needs either of these teams to lose to have a shot. They stand a great chance of jumping over the loser of that game than most other circumstances.

So, does USC have a shot…sure they do. It begins now, in winning a road game vs. a top 25 team, but continues in facing several strong opponents in their conference, but it also requires some favor in higher ranking teams losing. If USC does their part, we know they will jump over Boise State…maybe, MAYBE, even Virginia Tech. But to jump into the top 2, they need Texas to lose a game…with Texas playing Oklahoma, and USC playing Notre Dame…lots of things can happen. We shall see.

Is Boise State worth a top 5 ranking?

Where should Boise State REALLY be ranked?

Is this REALLY the 5th best team in the nation?

And that’s what the top 25 is supposed to do, indicate the top teams, IN ORDER. That means whoever is the #1 team (in this case Florida at the moment) means they are the BEST team in the nation. There is debate about whether Texas or Alabama are the second best, and it dips a bit from there.

Last night on ESPN Boise State beat Tulsa 28-21. So the debate begins, is this really a top 5 team?

To me, to be a great team you have to have a schedule that indicates that you beat some quality teams. And lately many average non-BCS schools have been scheduling cupcakes out of the BCS conferences so they can say they “beat” teams out of the BCS conferences.

Folks, just because you beat Vanderbilt out of the SEC does not mean you get much more credibility for beating a BCS conference team. Just because you beat Duke from the ACC does not give you credibility for beating a BCS conference team. Now, you beat Virginia tech or LSU, THEN we are talking.

The heavy criticism on Boise State is that they shy away from doing what Fresno State commonly does…schedule anybody, anywhere at anytime. Last year the only real games on Boise State’s schedule was Oregon and Southern Miss, and to their credit they won both. But a perfect record out of the weak WAC does not make them a top 5 contender.

The same applies this year. Boise State, to their great credit, did beat Oregon…on their smurf turf, so that indeed is a quality win. Ok, fine…what have you done lately? The game last night was against a Tulsa team that is one of the best of the Conference USA, but Tulsa is still an average team. And does it look like they are pretty touchable this year? Lots of close games, even against average and below average opponents.

If you ask me if Boise State is better than USC, that answer is NO. If you asked me if they were better than Ohio State, I say NO. And the same if paired against Penn State, LSU, Iowa and Virginia Tech. Boise State does not play big time games week in and week out, but only schedule one big game a year. I mean, let’s be honest, they didn’t HAVE to schedule UC Davis or Miami Ohio, did they? The WAC conference schedule is weak enough, you didn’t bolster the schedule by putting them on.

Granted, the win over Oregon looks great now, but look at what happened after that game: Boise State goes on to play a sub par schedule, although still winning. Oregon goes on and knocks off top 20 Utah, and top 6 California…back to back.

To me, Oregon is the better team, at this point than Boise State. Why? Because the level of competition is far greater on Oregon’s side than Boise State. Yeah, I know Boise State beat Oregon, at home, but Oregon beat two ranked teams…at home.

I just can’t see Boise State as a top 5 team, they have not beaten enough teams to earn such a high mark. Top 10, maybe. There is no more quality games on their schedule, so the only way they are going to get respect is if more teams lose to give the Broncos some level of security. There are many one-loss teams that are better than Boise State, there might be a couple of 2 loss teams that can match up with Boise State.

But you can’t blame Boise State players…blame the AD. If you REALLY want to start an argument about Boise State and the BCS, schedule tougher teams. Drop UC Davis and pop in Missouri. Change Miami Oh for Wisconsin. Exchange Tulsa for Arkansas. These may not be the cream of the crop for their conferences, but they are no easy wins either. You do that, and sweep, then nobody can argue that Boise State deserves strong consideration for a BCS if they go perfect.

Or at least force more conversations for a playoff… which I am not in favor of.

How good is Alabama football?

How good is Alabama?

Let’s take a hard look at the Alabama Crimson Tide, and see the greatness of the team…or how they might be a little over rated.

This is not made in cruel jest to the fans of Alabama, but let’s face it, to be a GREAT team, there has to be some strong indicators of it, and the signs of a great team are not just in wins, but WHO you beat, WHERE you beat them, and how much.

Last night, during the Boise State/Tulsa game, Lou Holtz (of whom I am NOT a fan of) said that style points didn’t matter when you are trying to prove to the nation how good you are…

That is spaghetti hogwash!

The power of a team is strongly based on who you beat and by how much. So I use that formula to examine whether Alabama is worthy of the #3 ranking that much of the pollsters feel they belong.

We start from last year, because it is how they vaulted so high at the beginning of this year.

Last year Alabama finished 12-2, one of the better teams of the nation. I mean, surely if you come out of the SEC with such a record, and only lose two games that year, it means you are poised for a real shot at the National Championship, right?

Alabama went 12-0 at one point, until it came to playing Florida in the SEC Championship, and lost that by 11. They went to a bowl and lost to Utah by 14. The Crimson Tide lost to two “better than average” teams. So am I implying that all they beat were “average” teams last year? Let’s examine:

Factor out the cupcakes like Western Kentucky and Arkansas State and we’ll start with the 10 teams they played. They beat Clemson first, and remember this was a team ranked as one of the top 10, maybe top 5 in the nation…how did that work out? Finished a dismal 7-6.

Then there was Tulane…finished 2-10. But by then the nation thought that Alabama was immediately a top 5 team because they dismantled Clemson, who clearly was not who anybody thought they were.

So now we get into the SEC schedule. Home game wins over Kentucky, Mississippi, Mississippi State and Auburn. The latter two teams didn’t even qualify for a bowl, Kentucky goes 7-6 and Mississippi turns out to be a decent team, so credit to Alabama for winning that game. The Kentucky and MSU games turn out to be closer than the other home games.

The road games included Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee and LSU. Arkansas and Tennessee don’t win enough to qualify for a bowl, but Georgia has a 10 win season, and LSU has a good 8 win season. The Georgia win on the road may well have been Alabama’s best win of the year.

If you melt down the games and pick out the defining games, it would have to be the road wins over Georgia and LSU. This indeed validates Alabama as a good team…but a top 10 team? I think so. Top 5? I am not too certain.

Now fast forward to this year, 2009.

Currently 6-0, let’s go ahead and factor out Florida International and North Texas. These are cupcake games that do not factor in the greatness of a team should they win, but cripple a season when they lose. Simply put, Alabama was supposed to win those anyway.

But what of Virginia Tech? Now THAT is a credible win. Virginia Tech has only lost one game so far this year…to this very same Alabama squad. Some might question the strength of the ACC, but to me, this is a very valid win for Alabama.

So now we look at their other wins, home at Arkansas, and on the road at Kentucky and then ranked #20 Mississippi. This Arkansas team might be pretty decent, after knocking off ranked Auburn, but is this an over rated team? Still many more games to go, and Arkansas has historically been a mid-card team.

Kentucky has lost 3 straight, after barely beating Louisville in the second game…looks like a basement team for the SEC. Mississippi was once a top 5 team but we all found out that this was mirror magic. As Dennis Green once said of the Chicago Bears, “they are who we THOUGHT they were!”

So right now, Alabama has a good win over Virginia Tech, and the jury is still out on Arkansas. That is the length of their greatness…does THAT warrant a top 3 ranking?

I gotta tell ya, I am not fully convinced about a top 3 ranking, especially since many teams got political slides based on other teams losing. You tell me how Mississippi can jump up to #4 because better teams lost big time games. Many teams got that advantage this year, only to prove that they weren’t worth the high ranking. Is Alabama the same way? Remember folks, this was a team that went 12-0 over an average schedule, or slightly better than average, before losing to Florida and Utah, back to back.

Top 10? Definitely! Top 5? No probs with that. Top 3? Not too sure. Not yet.