Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Top 10 NFL teams before Thanksgiving

Top 10 NFL teams BEFORE Thanksgiving

With Thanksgiving tomorrow, I had to make a quick list of the top 10 teams in the NFL. And with some upsets happening, there clearly has been a change in the top ten… although personally I would have made such a change last week, if you read my last top 10 NFL teams. Nevertheless, let me share my top 10 NFL teams BEFORE the Thanksgiving games, which include three games.

The magic line this week is 7-4, and I have to trim the teams there. There are currently 6 teams with a record BETTER than 7-4, and 7 teams with said record. That means I have to cut 3 teams out. Those teams include, in no order, Colts, Ravens, Patriots, Cardinals, Falcons, Cowboys and Redskins.

In looking at those teams, one of the first teams I had to drop was the Ravens. They are a good team, but of the teams that are 7-4, this team had the weakest impression. I also had to drop the Redskins because they have been slipping lately, and I had to drop the Cardinals because even though they have a great record, they come out of the uber-soft division. I had to select 10 teams, not 14.

So, let’s start the countdown:

#10 Atlanta Falcons (7-4)

Even though they are in third place in their own division, it is a pretty competitive division. It will be hard for them to make the Wild Card, but there still is a chance. But I put them here because of their recent win over the Panthers, and they pretty much own the NFC North, beating both Green Bay, Chicago and Detroit. But their remaining games are not that competitive, but not totally winnable either. Games AT the Chargers and at New Orleans will quickly decide if they are going post season or not. And finishing the season against the Buccaneers, Vikings and Rams will mix in a few wins…and losses.

#9 New England Patriots (7-4)

We are not sure if that big win over Miami was a redeeming win for the AFC Champs of last year. A loss to the Jets clearly makes them touchable, as if we didn’t already know that with a star player out. But the Patriots have three quality games left, the next against Pittsburgh, then a west coast trip to play Seattle and Oakland, before dragging the Cardinals back across the country to play before ending it with Buffalo. Dare we say they can win 3 straight before the final game against the Bills? We know they are not the team of last year, but they are clearly in position to get in the Wild Card, if not even take back the AFC East position.

#8 Dallas Cowboys (7-4)

I know they play Seattle tomorrow, and few expect them to lose, but I have them here because they narrowly edge out Washington. The win over the 49ers was not impressive, that is NOT a good team anyway. But a win over the Redskins the week before may have saved the season for them. If healthy, this can be a great team, and maybe back to where we thought they should be…contending for the Superbowl. The Cowboys’ last four games will be brutal, so they better savor Thanksgiving and the Seahawks, because games vs. the Steelers, Giants, Ravens and Eagles will not be fun.

#7 Indianapolis Colts (7-4)

For me to put the Colts here means that I think they are the best 7-4 team in the NFL. After a rough start, they have won 4 games in a row, including wins over the Patriots and the Steelers. This was one of the favorites to win the AFC this year anyway, and it looks like they got some of that swagger back. And with four games against losing teams, they can be 11-4 before they meet the Titans at the end of the year. I think the Colts can beat the Browns, Bengals, Lions and Jaguars, and if so, might make for a pretty interesting game vs. the Titans at the end of the year. This folks, could be a HUGE game, one that just might have some heavy implications in the AFC race.

#6 Carolina Panthers (8-3)

I should put this team lower, because the signs seemed to be there of how maybe this was NOT the team we thought it was. You simply cannot struggle against poor teams like the Raiders and the Lions before some weakness is shown. This seemed the case when they played the Falcons. Granted they beat the Falcons earlier, but with playoff spots on the line, you can’t be playing around. The Panthers’ final five include going to a desperate Green Bay team, at home vs. the Buccs and the Broncos, and going on the road to play the Giants and the Saints. None of these games are easy, and several of these teams are in great need of making a final push. If Carolina is not careful, they can find themselves on the outside looking in, in short order.

#5 Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3)

There are four teams in the NFL with an 8-3 record at this moment, and the Steelers are one of them. If you named the top 3 AFC teams in pre season, one might say the Patriots, Colts and Steelers, but you can argue for the Chargers as well. But the Steelers have not looked like the best team, just a good one. The problem here is that Pittsburgh does not have a lot of quality wins, and with the Ravens hot on their trail, they cannot afford too many slipups. A secondary problem is their schedule: Patriots, Cowboys, Ravens, Titans. This is not a favorable schedule for the Steelers, and oh by the way, three of those games are away. Hard times come for the Steel City.

#4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-3)

This is odd, because in retrospect I could have moved the Bucs down a spot, maybe two. I mean, sure they beat Carolina, Atlanta, Green Bay and Chicago, but they also had a pretty soft schedule too, and lost to Denver, New Orleans and Dallas. What makes them so good at #4? I put them here because you Tampa Bay does not play easy. In their three losses, none were more than 4 points. They have lost 3 games by a total of 11 points. This means the Bucs are ALWAYS in the game. Their next 3 games will be a true test and they need to distance themselves in the division. They play the Saints, Falcons and Panthers before ending the season with the Chargers and Raiders. We will see if this team can finish off the NFC South and get to the playoffs.

#3 New York Jets (8-3)

Beating the formerly undefeated Titans was a statement for this team, one the management of Green Bay is personally fearful of. We see that an old quarterback still has it, and has brought the Jets to new heights not seen in years. Yes that loss vs. the Raiders was bad, but how did they recover? A win over the Chiefs seemed a scare, but then a crushing blow to the Bills, then Rams before outstanding wins over the Patriots and Titans, back to back. This is a credible team. And yet, the schedule gets a lot softer, which could be a problem. The Jets had problems against lowly Oakland and Kansas City, how will they fare against the 49ers, Seahawks and Dolphins. Mix in a rematch against the Bills and a game vs. the Broncos, and you still have to be careful. Nothing is guaranteed for the Jets, but they do look pretty good.

#2 Tennessee Titans (10-1)

Ok, we can now say what I have been believing for weeks, this was not the best team in the NFL. A very good team, yes but best, no. And yet, we saw it coming weeks ago. Yes they had a soft schedule but the overtime win over the Colts should have been a sign. Close wins at Chicago and at Jacksonville should have been other signs that this team was good, but maybe not so great. The Jets proved that this team was not perfect and beat them in their own home…bad. With games vs. the losing Lions, the bad Browns and terrible Texans, they can get back on schedule, unless these teams have figured the Titans out. If not, then it is likely the Steelers and Colts will by the end of the year. We shall see.

#1 New York Giants (10-1)

Well well, looks like the state of New York could have a personal Superbowl. This is a very good team, and has had several hard games, and as the defending Superbowl Champs, it seems fitting to have them here. Unstoppable, I am not buying into that yet. That Arizona game showed some interesting things about the Giants, and with upcoming games against divisional foes, they will be hard pressed to beat the Redskins, Eagles AND Cowboys back to back to back. Then after that, they get Carolina (if they show up) before ending the season with Minnesota, a team that would like to get into the playoffs. None of these teams are easy, but a true champion can get through it. Who better?

Well, that takes care of my list, wishing you guys the best Thanksgiving, and here’s hoping your teams win.

Should undefeated teams go to BCS Bowls?

Do Undefeated teams deserve BCS?

Last night I was watching Ball State as they won their game, and also going perfect for the year. Because it was on ESPN, there was a lot of talk about whether non-BCS teams deserve to play in the National Championship, or even in the BCS.

There were a lot of people who felt that Ball State, currently 12-0, should have a shot a the BCS National Championship, or at least a BCS Bowl. Others feel that they don’t deserve a shot because they have not proven that they are worthy of such an honor.

One argument centers around the idea of rewarding teams with a perfect season. Where do we stand on it, especially with four undefeated teams left in the nation, as of this moment. Nobody will argue that IF Alabama goes undefeated, they clearly deserve a place in the National Championship, right?

RIGHT???

Come on folks, you don’t have to be an Alabama fan to understand that if a team in a power conference such as the SEC goes undefeated, they are in as one of the best teams in the nation. So there is no argument about that as of now. Don’t give me any cheap talk about “but what if Florida beats them”. We are talking about this very second, not what MIGHT happen.

Right now there are four undefeated teams, and nobody will argue Alabama’s record. But we do have problems with Utah, Boise State and Ball State. Many people want their team, who is currently undefeated, to play in the national championship. See that’s the problem with the “interactive” days on ESPN, most of those people who open their mouths are ONLY speaking out of extreme prejudice.

Ball State fans are obviously going to cry foul and even get mixed up in thinking that their team OUGHT to be one of the 2, or even 4 best teams in the nation. Now don’t get me mixed up here, I came from a small school too, in the Southern Conference, but a real sports fan has to understand if there is a legit argument.

So let’s address that. Do undefeated teams deserve to play in a BCS or National Championship. I can answer that right away with this answer…

NO.

Why? Because if you automatically award teams with a perfect record, you will then encourage teams to pervert the system for themselves. Teams will stop scheduling tougher records and go for softer ones, just to claim the “perfect” record. Let’s understand this folks, being perfect does not always mean being elite.

I say again, being perfect does NOT always mean being elite.

To me, there is an honorable way of winning, and having a perfect season, and then there are perversions to fool people. If having a perfect record was an automatic invite to the BCS or National Championship, then if I am an AD in a Division I school, I would schedule the softest record I can come up with. Imagine if somebody scheduled Washington, North Texas, Idaho, New Mexico State, Utah State, Washington State, and Eastern Michigan and going 7-0. Sure, the strength of schedule would truly suck, but there would still be people whining about “why can our team be in the BCS, we’re perfect so far?”

Awarding teams that way only leads to perversion, because athletic directors will find a way to “cheat the system” just to have a better record. So no, I do not believe an undefeated team should have an automatic invitation to the BCS Championship or BCS Bowl.

But let’s examine those four teams and argue each one. The easiest is the first…Alabama. They come out of the SEC, arguably the best or second best conference in the nation. Now, I will argue their strength of schedule because Clemson has fallen apart, LSU has fallen out of the top 25 and Georgia has been slipping, but I will not argue the strength of the SEC. So I have no arguments that Alabama is the best team in the nation…at this moment in time.

But then from there you drop down to #6 Utah. Now here, there is no question that Utah will be in a BCS bowl, but do they deserve to be in the National Championship? Utah defeats a team from the Big 10 (Michigan), defeats Air Force and ranked teams TCU and BYU, as well as Oregon State who is also currently ranked and headed for the Rose Bowl.. Utah clearly deserves a BCS Bowl, but a National Championship?

This one is hard, but if I had to argue against it, it goes back to the strength of the conference. Personally, I think if there had to be one more power conference this year, it must be the MWC. But we also know that Utah had some cupcakes in 2-10 San Diego State, 4-8 Wyoming and 4-8 New Mexico. The top 3 or 4 teams in the MWC are good, but after that, it’s not that impressive. And playing Weber State does not help either. I won’t argue Utah State, because you gotta keep your state rivals, but overall, this hurts Utah. It’s pretty clear, if you want to be in a serious chase for a National Championship, then PLAY serious contenders. But I say that with the greatest respect for Utah, I really like them.

Next is Boise State, a team that gave college fans one of the best games in recent memory, and one Oklahoma wants to forget. The problem is Boise State is currently #9 on the BCS polls, and will likely get knocked off the list because the BCS has to satisfy all the power conferences.

Now, does Boise State deserve a chance at a National Championship or a BCS Bowl? Remember, this team is undefeated and fans have been arguing that they deserve a shot… but does their schedule show this?

Remember folks, I strongly believe that just because you are perfect does NOT make you an automatic to a National Championship. Perfection can be perverted just like stats to say what YOU want, not what truly is. Of the four teams, Alabama is the only one out of a major conference, one NOBODY will argue on its strength. Utah is from a lesser conference, but NOBODY better argue that this team knocked off 3 ranked foes, and a pretty decent Air Force team.

But where does Boise State fit in? What is their resume? How many teams has Boise State defeated this year that were/are ranked? I think Oregon is the only one, and I will credit them with that game because it was away. But who else?

Idaho State? They are 1-11!

Bowling Green? They are 5-6!

Louisiana Tech? They are the second best team in the WAC at 7-4.

Southern Miss? They are 5-6!

Hawaii? They are 6-5.

San Jose State? 6-6, even though ESPN tried to bill that game up as something big.

New Mexico State? 3-8

Utah State? Even worse at 2-9!

Idaho? 2-10!

And Nevada? 6-5.

Most of Boise State’s teams are UNDER .500, and the conference is clearly not in league with the power conferences. This is where some people get a little drunk and think that Boise State could run the tables in the ACC or Big East… not likely folks. Don’t fool yourselves to think that the Idahos and New Mexicos are the same as Syracuse, NC State or teams at the bottom of POWER conferences.

And this is clearly shown in the BCS polls. Utah is #6 and Boise State is #9 because their conference is weak. Yes they are perfect, but beating lesser foes and becoming perfect does not make you elite. Do I believe Boise State deserves a shot at the BCS Title…absolutely not. Now, do I think they deserve a BCS Bowl?

That is different, because I think maybe they do. But the current system and the way it is set up won’t allow that. This is because the bowls have contractual obligations to those conferences, and something a lot of readers never think about…these bowls are also made in relation to distance.

A bowl in Florida is NOT going to court a team on the west coast unless it is absolutely sure that that university can make the trip and PAY those tickets. I don’t care what you think about the BCS, it is still about money, and each bowl committee has an obligation to make a profit, not put who YOU want in a bowl. So the problem with Boise State is that any bowl is going to want to ensure that the university can sell the tickets so they can make a profit. Can Boise State go to the Orange Bowl, can they sell enough tickets to make it worth while? That we do not know. I do believe that there should be some consideration for Boise State in a BCS bowl, but I also think that there is a way to solve this.

The NCAA added a fifth bowl just for the chance of a non-BCS team making the top 10, why not add one more? Throw in something like the Cotton Bowl, or some other mid-major bowl, creating two more slots. This way, you make more room 12 slots, and giving one or even two undefeated teams a chance to participate in the BCS bowls.

Now, we come to the last team, Ball State. Ball State is ranked pretty low on the BCS, at #15, even with a win last night and a possible win in the MAC Championship. Lots of people whined about them being able to have a chance in the BCS Bowl or the BCS Championship.

Easy question first, NO Ball State does NOT deserve a National Championship. Even though Boise State defeated a ranked team…ONE ranked team, it is one MORE than Ball State.

Ball State has defeated NO teams that are ranked or have been ranked, in the course of the season. NONE. How then can such a team dare to argue about contention for a National Championship? I truly hope that Ball State fans are not missing the point here, because I cheer for the underdog too, and there is great credit to what Ball State has done. But can you HONESTLY say that your record is equal to that of teams that has played tougher competition?

Ok, let’s look at who Ball State played this year: Northeastern, not to be confused with Northwestern. The first win for Ball State is a team currently 2-10. Second is Navy, which is probably the best team on their schedule, even at 7-4.

Akron is currently 5-6, Kent State is 3-8, just like Toledo, and Western Kentucky is 2-9. Yes, Ball State defeated Indiana, from a power conference, but this is the worst team in the Big 10 at 2-9. So tell me again why this perfect record deserves a shot at the National Title, when only 1 team thus far has a winning record?

Continuing, Eastern Michigan is currently 2-9, Northern Illinois is 6-6 and Miami (OH) is 2-9. The record of Ball State’s opponents is what, 31-70? Is THIS worthy of a reward of a National Title? How can you reward such a lofty goal when the road was so easy?

Now, we come to the last two games, Central Michigan and Western Michigan. Now, these two teams are 8-3 and 9-3, but if you check the schedule, neither of these teams beat anybody worthy of mentioning either. In fact, both Central and Western Michigan are examples of soft schedules, and even though the record LOOKS good, they were never ranked. Ball State gets ranked ONLY because they are undefeated, not because they had a tough schedule.

So we have to be honest, does Ball State deserve a National Championship, no. Do they deserve a BCS Bowl? That is hard, because if you reward them for a perfect record in a very soft conference, you then must wonder if they are better than an average team in the power conferences. Do you think a Ball State can beat Virginia, or South Florida, Arkansas, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Michigan State, or Arizona?

DO you?

I think as much as people would like to see Ball State vs. Boise State, I think the matchup should be against one of those teams. Sure, you’d like to see two perfect teams play each other, but what do you gain from it? If you want to make your case for next year, why not play somebody THIS year?

If Boise State cannot get in a BCS bowl, try to get a power conference team in a bowl. If Ball State cannot get in a BCS bowl, try to get a power conference team in a bowl. If you win, you set the stage for next year for serious consideration. We know Boise State beat a legit team, but it was only one legit team. Ball State has not done that, so use this year to earn respect, rather than trying to beg for it.

Until there is a playoff system, which ain’t gonna happen anytime soon with ESPN buying the rights to the bowls, lesser conference teams must earn respect by beating teams, not by having soft schedules and whining about why they are not listed amongst the best.

So….do undefeated teams DESERVE to be in the BCS. No. You earn respect by beating quality teams. If they are not on your schedule, PUT them on the schedule. Alabama deserves it because they survive a SEC conference, Utah ought to be considered because they are out of a tough conference this year and has defeated good teams. Boise State just can’t be considered for a National Championship because their schedule is too weak, but a BCS bowl might be ok. And Ball State… not a chance at a BCS Title, and sadly, not one for the BCS Bowl. Schedule some better teams and earn more respect, and then you force the NCAA to consider you.