The HORROR of College Football
Halloween is upon us, and with it comes the fear that over 100 teams fear to embrace…that there are guarantees in life…one is the demise of a season.
And all teams choose to play a game…much like Jigsaw imposes on his victims…knowing that few, if any are designed to succeed.
And so most fail.
Halloween brings the horror already realized, and the horrors of those realized on All Saints Day, and yet it also delays the feared ending of some, where their seasons come to a quick and correct ending…with no sequel in sight.
This season was nothing but a ruse to many teams, knowing that there are many teams designed to fail…to be fodder, for the greater cause. But let us take a moment to look at this horror movie and sort out the victims….for we know there will be many.
If there is a real Camp Crystal Lake, it will indeed resemble the ACC. As many contenders as sequels, and a body count to match. The ACC continues to slay one another as mindlessly as the next batch of campers find their way to the lake, only to discover too late that their fate was already charted. The ACC had a chance to produce a “Jason” with Virginia Tech, but failed miserably…but word has it that Georgia Tech stands hidden in the forest, with a certain hockey mask.
Can we believe that THIS is the Jason the ACC needs to put fear in the BCS? We have seen this before, and lately the ACC has not put terror in any other conference. And victims this year seemed to have claimed Florida State, Clemson and Wake Forest, while Duke, NC State and Maryland lie at the bottom of the murky swamp.
Shall we fear Jason Yellow Jacket…or shall we look for another?
Haddonfield, seems to be a town hiding a terrible secret…much like that of the Big 10. On that fateful day, when Michael Myers began his terror, few knew, nor read the signs of what would happen, save only Dr. Loomis. Is this any different this year, with Iowa standing at the door of the BCS Championship? The mission for Myers was simple, to find and eradicate his family…which led to a long chase to find his sister… and dispose of her.
How similar can this be of Iowa and the last several games against Penn State, where there has been a grand and epic struggle, only to end in sad endings? But again, Iowa has hunted their quarry and defeated Penn State, but Ohio State may be the only thing keeping them from a BCS Championship. But Ohio State is flawed, much like the aged Dr. Loomis, who did all he could to thwart the actions of Myers. Can Ohio State prevent Iowa from their goal, or will Iowa take for granted the other “lesser” teams, and lose a chance at a most valued prize. Only Illinois has fallen under, as many other teams in the Big 10 can make a challenge. There are more sequels to come.
Beware if there is a moon out on Halloween night, for you never know who will change to a beastly werewolf…such is my warning to the Big 12. Was it not last year where at least 7 quarterbacks proved that they were NFL ready? Was there not six teams that were ranked in the top 25 through much of the year? But this year, not much noise has been made of the conference outside of Texas…and they look exposed.
Has the conference found silver bullets to destroy the Texas Werewolf? You DO know that silver can destroy a werewolf…just as one loss could be a deadly force against Texas’ bid to the BCS. But we have been fooled several times by their changes…who informed us that Colorado would be any better than last year…we were fools to buy that.
And who said that Nebraska was the fear of the town…nay, I saw no claws, fangs or body hair resembling a werewolf on these Huskers…I only saw mere men fall by the wayside. We have however, seen a great man fall in Oklahoma, and with it also went the dreams of the season. It would seem that only Oklahoma State remain to challenge Texas, and by doing such we shall see by the light of the full moon who is REALLY a werewolf… and who is not.
The house of Count Dracula may seem large, but only eight rooms are being used, and one may well be Count Dracula himself. From the grave the Big East was counted as nothing, as a slain evil, never to return. In fact, the beginning of the season there were no Big East teams ranked. Yet from the grave has risen one who bears the marks of Vlad Dracul…and yet there seems to be another.
Cincinnati at this moment is undefeated, and should they run the table, may say they should be in the BCS… but has there been enough “blood” sacrificed to validate this? Who has this team beaten that qualifies this as THE Count…rather than some other vampire who serves another?
Some say Pittsburgh holds the strings, and controls the scene from afar in the conference, and it is only a matter of time before the two meet…to settle once and for all who is the REAL Dracula. Yet consider this…is there a Val Helsing in the mists…. A West Virginia…or maybe a South Florida? Alas, it may well not be West Virginia, as news travels that they were recently slain by South Florida. It would then seem that either Cincinnati OR Pittsburgh is then the true Dracula…but are either strong enough to force themselves into the BCS?
A classic John Carpenter movie, “The Fog”, was about a curse that was laid upon a hapless town on the 100th anniversary of the founding of their town….some might say there is such a “fog” or even “curse” upon the SEC in the recent rumors of less than professional officiating.
More than once has such wickedness cost a team a win, one that Georgia can clearly testify to. In the movie, the curse came because the town lied to a ship of lepers that wanted to make a home near their town, in exchange for much gold. The townsfolk swore on the deal…took the gold…but destroyed the lepers…thus the curse 100 years later.
Victims of greed we all can be of times, but at the expense of other teams in the SEC? Some say a curse will fall upon the SEC, as some say that the poor officiating was used in conspiracy to promote Florida and Alabama, to ensure a SEC remain in the BCS hunt. Others say there is a curse on the SEC for their apparent lack of hiring African American coaches…only ONE in their history…and yet they benefit so greatly from African American players….
What is in the fog of the SEC…most see Florida, maybe Alabama. I have heard some say it was Ole Miss, but I see no truth in that. There were rumors that Tennessee had risen from the depths of the sunken ship and reclaimed what was rightly theirs…we ALMOST saw that at the hands of Alabama, but the Crimson Tide bare escaped with their lives. It leads me to believe they won’t live much longer at that rate. But one could say the same for Florida as well….
There may well be an Elm Street in every state, but the Pac-10 stares at fear tangible in that they now must pray for access to the BCS Championship. With several teams out of BCS Conferences that are perfect, the PAC-10 has no hope of jumping over the likes of a perfect Florida, or Alabama or Texas. And with the East Coast Bias, most people never see these Pac-10 teams unless they play earlier in the day. Out of sight, out of mind…unless you are Freddy Krueger.
In the famed series of movies, the creature of the night would appear in a victim’s nightmare and claim them for his own…the Pac-10 would have to perform similar feats to put fear in the BCS, and force the nation to pay attention to them.
For on Halloween there will be a Nightmare on Elm Street when USC plays against Oregon, and everything is on the line. Both teams have one loss, and neither can afford another. Yet a game of this importance would certainly propel the winner into a greater chance of a BCS shot, right? It is critical that a Duck or Trojan becomes the nightmare of the BCS, and may have to make horrid work of their opponent to put fear in the voters of the polls. Trust me, you don’t want to sleep when this game comes on… especially those on the east coast.
We have discovered that Sleepy Hollow is more than a legend, it is a real place… the name has changed to the Mountain West Conference, and there have been rumors of not one…not two…but possibly THREE Headless horsemen roaming about.
I once heard there may have even been a fourth from the Air Force, but I am being told that this is not so true. It has been more confirmed that those Headless Horsemen come from TCU, Utah and BYU…U know what I mean by that…
These teams seek that which they have lost…respect. For their competitive conference, few give them a chance to actually be in the BCS, even if one goes undefeated. At this moment it remains to be only TCU, as both BYU and Utah have lost their heads earlier in the year. But because it was early, there is a chance…however slight, to get it back.
Will anyone take notice of the Mountain West Horseman as he rides through the night, looking for another victim? How many more will they have to defeat before the BCS acknowledges them as a real threat to the BCS?
And what is this I hear of this Hunchback that clamors about being better than anybody else? Who told this creature that they were the equal of the other teams simply because they have a nice record? Their best win so far this year was at home to Boston College, having lost games to USC and Michigan. Do not try to scare me with such stories from Notre Dame….win games against TOUGH opponents before you try to scare us.
And I have seen the parts being built for this Frankenstein they call Boise State. A powerful creature, with indeed a history of doing damage…but many say the parts are made of cheap material. A weak schedule with only ONE good win makes this a creature with great potential, but very flawed. We can see Boise State as much a contender to the BCS now as we can consider Frankenstein as equal to a human. Until Boise State schedules more quality opponents, we will continue to shun Boise State as the village shunned Frankenstein…which lead to his demise at the end.
I warn you, Halloween will bring many sad tidings for many. For some, the realization that there is no post season, for some, the realization that there is no conference championship, and for others, no BCS Bowl game. Hearts will be broken, spirits will be split…dreams will be shattered in the faces of tens of thousands.
There will be…losers….
(what did you think I was gonna say…it’s all in fun!)
Happy Halloween all, may your favorite team win!
Friday, October 30, 2009
Thursday, October 29, 2009
NEW BCS TOP 15, Oct 29th
The NEW BCS, OCT 29th version
The top 15
Again, if you have not read my blogs before, jump back a few and see how I came up with these numbers. It is NOT etched in stone but give some sense of validity rather than just having a bunch of dudes picking teams.
My NEW BCS is based on rewarding points for factors of the game, the most important being WINNING. I give 20 points for every game a team wins. But I award bonus points for other factors, such as winning at home, winning conference games, winning by certain amounts and so forth. I also award…or penalize a team if the teams on their schedule are above .500, even or below. I penalize teams that play a non Division I foe, whether they win OR lose.
Again, you’ll have to jump back to find the posts on what I am talking about, if you want I can go over it again in my next blog to explain some things. But until then, let’s count down my top 15:
#15 Utah 187 points: Folks, I gotta tell ya, the schedule Utah has played thus far is VERY poor, it is hard to put them in the ranks of the top 10 when more of their teams have losing records than anybody else. This is a heavy penalty that shows a weak strength of schedule. But there is still time to rise in the ranks, since the Mountain West is indeed a good conference this year.
#14 Virginia Tech 233 points: Two losses virtually destroys any chance to the BCS, and we all thought VA Tech was all that too. Consider this folks, this team has two losses, and still is better than Utah…if the Hokies had won one of those two games, they could easily have been in the top 10.
#13 Oklahoma State 234 points: That embarrassing loss to Houston must still be like mud in their face, but the difference between Oklahoma State and a top 10 is actually about 30 points. It’s just harder to compete at this moment with teams with 7 wins under their belt, so this could even out eventually.
#12 Oregon 235 points: This is odd because for a team with 1 loss, I have them outside the top 10. Why? Their strength of schedule takes some punch out of what they have done, although they have defeated two top 15 ranked teams. If you are looking at 6 win teams, this is one of the best, but compared to the undefeated teams, they fall behind a bit. Still plenty of time to get in the mix though.
#11 USC 261 points: Interesting, since they play this weekend against one another. Of my elite teams, I actually had USC ranked at the bottom at this period of time. This was out of my elite 8 teams, but after adding a few more teams on, I had to slide USC down even further. The margin of difference is slim, in fact they missed my top 10 by only 4 points, meaning this is by no means the end of the judgment.
#10 Cincinnati 265 points: This one is funny because I had them ranked much higher when I did the elite teams. But what may be showing is that even with a perfect record, Cincinnati still has to prove some things. Beating South Florida was their only mark, and it was a bottom 25 team. They need to run the tables to get real consideration and votes of confidence to play in that BCS Championship.
#9 TCU 271 points. Between ranks 6-11 only about 16 points separate these teams, meaning these are very close rankings. TCU has an advantage of 7 wins, but very slightly higher quality of wins and a good defense gives them some points as well. IF TCU runs the tables…are they for real?
#8 Penn State 273 points: The loss to Iowa hurts big time to Penn State, but they are only a handful of points off some better teams. Penn State can still make a game of this, if they can run the tables, but they would have to hope that Iowa loses a couple of times. Is it possible….who knows, but Penn State with a few more wins will be making a strong case for a one loss team.
#7 Pittsburgh 274 points: We see that this team is only one point better than Penn State, but that loss to NC State may have ruined a magical season. Like Cincinnati, this team suffers from a weaker schedule that could sooner catch up to them. Both Pittsburgh and Cincinnati are rooting for one another, so that when they play, it will mean much more than just two Big East teams playing one another…it could lead to a BCS Championship.
#6 Boise State 277 points: Even at 7-0 this team could be in trouble for slipping further down in the rankings. Even if Boise State continues to win, the quality of their wins against a weaker schedule could count against them…it clearly is the case with Utah, it could be the same for Boise State. So again, is wins the ONLY thing that counts? Nope, not if you want to be a champion.
#5 Florida 284 points: In light of the SEC officials and stuff going on, and with Florida playing with injured players, and the close games, this is still the team to beat. I have this team here because they are clearly one of the best teams, but now some wonder about the true strength of the SEC, if officials are playing to the “better teams”. Keep in mind that a couple of the teams ahead of Florida have an extra game under their belt, so it should all even out in the wash.
#4 Georgia Tech 287 points: This one is a BIG surprise to me folks, and considering how the ACC beats each other up, I don’t see this standing long, but to this point I think Georgia Tech is one of the best teams in the nation. If you cannot stop their triple option, you will lose. I thought for sure that this was a simplistic strategy that was years out of date, but Georgia Tech is proving that if teams don’t study for it, they will get beat by it. Georgia Tech in the BCS Championship? I think it is still too early, but don’t completely rule that out.
#2 Iowa 310 points: Now understand, Iowa is here because YES they have a perfect record, but also because they have one more game ahead of most other teams. That one game pulls a lot of points. They are only about 12 points ahead of Georgia Tech and Texas, so as those teams even out their schedule, it will tell us the true story. Iowa still has Ohio State on the schedule, which many circle as THE key game for the entire Big 10...if Iowa wins that…it will create some REAL controversy for the BCS Championships.
#1 Alabama 326 points: Everything I said about Iowa…goes for Alabama. They have an extra game ahead of the other teams, and they came within a shade of losing to Tennessee. Is this team REALLY as good as they say. I wasn’t too convinced last year, and they have the advantage of several good home game wins, and a schedule that at the moment is pretty tough, but when things shake out, as they usually do, I am not too sure this team will stay where it is. But for now, they are here.
So, those are my NEW BCS top 15, with Virginia Tech playing UNC tonight, we shall see if that changes any. A win for Virginia Tech could vault them close to the top 10...who knows?
The top 15
Again, if you have not read my blogs before, jump back a few and see how I came up with these numbers. It is NOT etched in stone but give some sense of validity rather than just having a bunch of dudes picking teams.
My NEW BCS is based on rewarding points for factors of the game, the most important being WINNING. I give 20 points for every game a team wins. But I award bonus points for other factors, such as winning at home, winning conference games, winning by certain amounts and so forth. I also award…or penalize a team if the teams on their schedule are above .500, even or below. I penalize teams that play a non Division I foe, whether they win OR lose.
Again, you’ll have to jump back to find the posts on what I am talking about, if you want I can go over it again in my next blog to explain some things. But until then, let’s count down my top 15:
#15 Utah 187 points: Folks, I gotta tell ya, the schedule Utah has played thus far is VERY poor, it is hard to put them in the ranks of the top 10 when more of their teams have losing records than anybody else. This is a heavy penalty that shows a weak strength of schedule. But there is still time to rise in the ranks, since the Mountain West is indeed a good conference this year.
#14 Virginia Tech 233 points: Two losses virtually destroys any chance to the BCS, and we all thought VA Tech was all that too. Consider this folks, this team has two losses, and still is better than Utah…if the Hokies had won one of those two games, they could easily have been in the top 10.
#13 Oklahoma State 234 points: That embarrassing loss to Houston must still be like mud in their face, but the difference between Oklahoma State and a top 10 is actually about 30 points. It’s just harder to compete at this moment with teams with 7 wins under their belt, so this could even out eventually.
#12 Oregon 235 points: This is odd because for a team with 1 loss, I have them outside the top 10. Why? Their strength of schedule takes some punch out of what they have done, although they have defeated two top 15 ranked teams. If you are looking at 6 win teams, this is one of the best, but compared to the undefeated teams, they fall behind a bit. Still plenty of time to get in the mix though.
#11 USC 261 points: Interesting, since they play this weekend against one another. Of my elite teams, I actually had USC ranked at the bottom at this period of time. This was out of my elite 8 teams, but after adding a few more teams on, I had to slide USC down even further. The margin of difference is slim, in fact they missed my top 10 by only 4 points, meaning this is by no means the end of the judgment.
#10 Cincinnati 265 points: This one is funny because I had them ranked much higher when I did the elite teams. But what may be showing is that even with a perfect record, Cincinnati still has to prove some things. Beating South Florida was their only mark, and it was a bottom 25 team. They need to run the tables to get real consideration and votes of confidence to play in that BCS Championship.
#9 TCU 271 points. Between ranks 6-11 only about 16 points separate these teams, meaning these are very close rankings. TCU has an advantage of 7 wins, but very slightly higher quality of wins and a good defense gives them some points as well. IF TCU runs the tables…are they for real?
#8 Penn State 273 points: The loss to Iowa hurts big time to Penn State, but they are only a handful of points off some better teams. Penn State can still make a game of this, if they can run the tables, but they would have to hope that Iowa loses a couple of times. Is it possible….who knows, but Penn State with a few more wins will be making a strong case for a one loss team.
#7 Pittsburgh 274 points: We see that this team is only one point better than Penn State, but that loss to NC State may have ruined a magical season. Like Cincinnati, this team suffers from a weaker schedule that could sooner catch up to them. Both Pittsburgh and Cincinnati are rooting for one another, so that when they play, it will mean much more than just two Big East teams playing one another…it could lead to a BCS Championship.
#6 Boise State 277 points: Even at 7-0 this team could be in trouble for slipping further down in the rankings. Even if Boise State continues to win, the quality of their wins against a weaker schedule could count against them…it clearly is the case with Utah, it could be the same for Boise State. So again, is wins the ONLY thing that counts? Nope, not if you want to be a champion.
#5 Florida 284 points: In light of the SEC officials and stuff going on, and with Florida playing with injured players, and the close games, this is still the team to beat. I have this team here because they are clearly one of the best teams, but now some wonder about the true strength of the SEC, if officials are playing to the “better teams”. Keep in mind that a couple of the teams ahead of Florida have an extra game under their belt, so it should all even out in the wash.
#4 Georgia Tech 287 points: This one is a BIG surprise to me folks, and considering how the ACC beats each other up, I don’t see this standing long, but to this point I think Georgia Tech is one of the best teams in the nation. If you cannot stop their triple option, you will lose. I thought for sure that this was a simplistic strategy that was years out of date, but Georgia Tech is proving that if teams don’t study for it, they will get beat by it. Georgia Tech in the BCS Championship? I think it is still too early, but don’t completely rule that out.
#2 Iowa 310 points: Now understand, Iowa is here because YES they have a perfect record, but also because they have one more game ahead of most other teams. That one game pulls a lot of points. They are only about 12 points ahead of Georgia Tech and Texas, so as those teams even out their schedule, it will tell us the true story. Iowa still has Ohio State on the schedule, which many circle as THE key game for the entire Big 10...if Iowa wins that…it will create some REAL controversy for the BCS Championships.
#1 Alabama 326 points: Everything I said about Iowa…goes for Alabama. They have an extra game ahead of the other teams, and they came within a shade of losing to Tennessee. Is this team REALLY as good as they say. I wasn’t too convinced last year, and they have the advantage of several good home game wins, and a schedule that at the moment is pretty tough, but when things shake out, as they usually do, I am not too sure this team will stay where it is. But for now, they are here.
So, those are my NEW BCS top 15, with Virginia Tech playing UNC tonight, we shall see if that changes any. A win for Virginia Tech could vault them close to the top 10...who knows?
Top 10 NFL teams OCT 29th
Top 10 NFL teams, Oct 29th
Ok, so I am a little late, sue me.
Anyway, as we get into the 8th week (7th for many) we see that the list of undefeated teams has dropped by one. So three teams remain undefeated, and they are obviously on the top 10 list.
But there is only 1 team with one loss, so obviously they are on the list too. However, there are 9 teams with 2 losses, so I had to decide who would not make it on my list. I am not putting any team with 3 losses on this week, maybe next week, but not this week.
Before I start with the top 10, let me share with you two teams that didn’t make it and why:
Green Bay Packers 4-2: Yeah, we know about the huge game this weekend when Brett Farve comes back home, but I am not convinced that this is a top 10 team. If they beat the Vikings, then they are in because their record would be 5-2, but there have been some questionable games thus far. Their only quality games thus far was against the Bears, which is now falling down to average, and vs. the Bengals and Vikings…both they lost.
Philadelphia Eagles 4-2: To be honest, I thought they would beat up the Redskins more than they did. The defense of the Eagles looks great, the offense needs a little help, and with an injury to Westbrook, this team looks weaker. I could put them on if I had one more spot, but I just need them to beat a quality team before I can do that.
And so, the top 10:
#10 Atlanta Falcons 4-2 Losing at Dallas hurt the team, whom I had as #6 last week, but I can’t discount this young team’s potential. Their schedule has been pretty hard, and to only lose 2 games is very good, yet coming up they have games against the Saints, Giants and Eagles, with a few softer ones sprinkled in. It may be hard for them to stay here and not get bumped out.
#9 Arizona Cardinals 4-2: I gotta tell you, I am not too impressed with NFC West teams, but for Arizona to travel across the country, and beat the Giants says a heck of a lot for the Cardinals. This to me could be a signature win for the team, and I have them as perhaps the 4th best NFC team in the NFL….maybe 3rd best.
#8 New York Giants 5-2: The Giants drop 3 spots for losing at home to the Cardinals, and now some start to wonder how good this team really is. Their previous 5 wins were against lesser opponents, and now having lost to the Saints and Cardinals changes how we may have to see the Giants… are they the real thing?
#7 Cincinnati Bengals 5-2: These cats are still in the mix, and after beating the Bears they have proven that this may well be a team to keep an eye out for. With the Ravens and Steelers coming up back to back, this may well define whether this team will be in the playoffs or just making cheap noise…we will know soon enough.
#6 Pittsburgh Steelers 5-2: Seems the defending champs are clawing their way back into the mix. Just last week I had them #10, and the week before that not ranked, but that win over the Vikings certainly put them back in. It proves that losing a couple of games early means nothing if you can rebound. The Steelers are certainly looking to get some “get back” from the Bengals, which comes up soon enough.
#5 New England Patriots 5-2: I am just not ready to bail out on the experience that this team has, and at 5-2, they are clearly in the hunt. I had them at #7 last week, and #9 the week before that. Winning their last two games will do that, but then again, beating the Titans and Buccs really doesn’t mean much….did anybody watch that Pats/Buccs game in London? I didn’t
#4 Minnesota Vikings 6-1: Since this is the only team with one loss, I can’t drop them too much further than this. I had them #3 last week, but the week before I had them #4, so this is about average. Losing to the defending Superbowl Champs in their home is a tough assignment, but this week when the travel to Green Bay, it will tell us much more. If Minnesota wins that game, they will have a lockdown on the division, and all but guaranteed to the playoffs. The way they are playing, I see them as the 2nd best NFC team in the league.
#3 Indianapolis Colts 6-0: For the Colts to be here, I am implying that they are the weakest undefeated team so far. Beating the Jags didn’t prove much, but the Miami game was pretty interesting. Handling the Cardinals in their house is nice, but beating Seattle, Tennessee and St. Louis does not prove much. With maybe 4 games left of some caliber, the Colts could easily rack up 10-12 wins, maybe more. I just need to see them against a tough opponent…say New England in about 3 weeks….
#2 New Orleans Saints 6-0: YES, my hometown, my place of birth, finally we are in there like swimwear! There is still a lot of work to be done, because 6-0 does not put you in the Superbowl…ask Tennessee about that 13-0 record that vanished. But I gotta tell ya, this record has been with merit. Factor out the Lions (please) and you see that this is indeed a tough schedule, beating the Eagles, Jets, Giants and Dolphins. To me, right now, this is the best NFC team in the league and seems to run with the belief that they will GLADLY give you 30 points…as long as they score 40.
#1 Denver Broncos 6-0: I thought a moment of whether the Broncos should be #1 or #2, but either way, if it ends like that, both would meet in the Superbowl. The Broncos beat Cincinnati in their house, dumped the Cowboys, beat the Patriots and stopped the Chargers…that is a good list of opponents. And I think this team is on a mission, yet I can’t help shake the feeling that the newness of it won’t last. With games against the Ravens, Steelers, Chargers, Giants, Colts and Eagles, there is NO way they are going undefeated…just not gonna happen, but four of those teams are AFC foes they need to gauge themselves against, so we will know the truth from those games.
So there ya have it, my top 10 as we slide into Halloween weekend. Have fun!
Ok, so I am a little late, sue me.
Anyway, as we get into the 8th week (7th for many) we see that the list of undefeated teams has dropped by one. So three teams remain undefeated, and they are obviously on the top 10 list.
But there is only 1 team with one loss, so obviously they are on the list too. However, there are 9 teams with 2 losses, so I had to decide who would not make it on my list. I am not putting any team with 3 losses on this week, maybe next week, but not this week.
Before I start with the top 10, let me share with you two teams that didn’t make it and why:
Green Bay Packers 4-2: Yeah, we know about the huge game this weekend when Brett Farve comes back home, but I am not convinced that this is a top 10 team. If they beat the Vikings, then they are in because their record would be 5-2, but there have been some questionable games thus far. Their only quality games thus far was against the Bears, which is now falling down to average, and vs. the Bengals and Vikings…both they lost.
Philadelphia Eagles 4-2: To be honest, I thought they would beat up the Redskins more than they did. The defense of the Eagles looks great, the offense needs a little help, and with an injury to Westbrook, this team looks weaker. I could put them on if I had one more spot, but I just need them to beat a quality team before I can do that.
And so, the top 10:
#10 Atlanta Falcons 4-2 Losing at Dallas hurt the team, whom I had as #6 last week, but I can’t discount this young team’s potential. Their schedule has been pretty hard, and to only lose 2 games is very good, yet coming up they have games against the Saints, Giants and Eagles, with a few softer ones sprinkled in. It may be hard for them to stay here and not get bumped out.
#9 Arizona Cardinals 4-2: I gotta tell you, I am not too impressed with NFC West teams, but for Arizona to travel across the country, and beat the Giants says a heck of a lot for the Cardinals. This to me could be a signature win for the team, and I have them as perhaps the 4th best NFC team in the NFL….maybe 3rd best.
#8 New York Giants 5-2: The Giants drop 3 spots for losing at home to the Cardinals, and now some start to wonder how good this team really is. Their previous 5 wins were against lesser opponents, and now having lost to the Saints and Cardinals changes how we may have to see the Giants… are they the real thing?
#7 Cincinnati Bengals 5-2: These cats are still in the mix, and after beating the Bears they have proven that this may well be a team to keep an eye out for. With the Ravens and Steelers coming up back to back, this may well define whether this team will be in the playoffs or just making cheap noise…we will know soon enough.
#6 Pittsburgh Steelers 5-2: Seems the defending champs are clawing their way back into the mix. Just last week I had them #10, and the week before that not ranked, but that win over the Vikings certainly put them back in. It proves that losing a couple of games early means nothing if you can rebound. The Steelers are certainly looking to get some “get back” from the Bengals, which comes up soon enough.
#5 New England Patriots 5-2: I am just not ready to bail out on the experience that this team has, and at 5-2, they are clearly in the hunt. I had them at #7 last week, and #9 the week before that. Winning their last two games will do that, but then again, beating the Titans and Buccs really doesn’t mean much….did anybody watch that Pats/Buccs game in London? I didn’t
#4 Minnesota Vikings 6-1: Since this is the only team with one loss, I can’t drop them too much further than this. I had them #3 last week, but the week before I had them #4, so this is about average. Losing to the defending Superbowl Champs in their home is a tough assignment, but this week when the travel to Green Bay, it will tell us much more. If Minnesota wins that game, they will have a lockdown on the division, and all but guaranteed to the playoffs. The way they are playing, I see them as the 2nd best NFC team in the league.
#3 Indianapolis Colts 6-0: For the Colts to be here, I am implying that they are the weakest undefeated team so far. Beating the Jags didn’t prove much, but the Miami game was pretty interesting. Handling the Cardinals in their house is nice, but beating Seattle, Tennessee and St. Louis does not prove much. With maybe 4 games left of some caliber, the Colts could easily rack up 10-12 wins, maybe more. I just need to see them against a tough opponent…say New England in about 3 weeks….
#2 New Orleans Saints 6-0: YES, my hometown, my place of birth, finally we are in there like swimwear! There is still a lot of work to be done, because 6-0 does not put you in the Superbowl…ask Tennessee about that 13-0 record that vanished. But I gotta tell ya, this record has been with merit. Factor out the Lions (please) and you see that this is indeed a tough schedule, beating the Eagles, Jets, Giants and Dolphins. To me, right now, this is the best NFC team in the league and seems to run with the belief that they will GLADLY give you 30 points…as long as they score 40.
#1 Denver Broncos 6-0: I thought a moment of whether the Broncos should be #1 or #2, but either way, if it ends like that, both would meet in the Superbowl. The Broncos beat Cincinnati in their house, dumped the Cowboys, beat the Patriots and stopped the Chargers…that is a good list of opponents. And I think this team is on a mission, yet I can’t help shake the feeling that the newness of it won’t last. With games against the Ravens, Steelers, Chargers, Giants, Colts and Eagles, there is NO way they are going undefeated…just not gonna happen, but four of those teams are AFC foes they need to gauge themselves against, so we will know the truth from those games.
So there ya have it, my top 10 as we slide into Halloween weekend. Have fun!
NCAA Bans Dez Bryant
NCAA bans Dez Bryant
Let’s call this what it is…a stupid move by the NCAA.
This to me is a hypocrisy of what the NCAA is supposed to stand for. They like to force all these corny public service announcements about how important academics is to these schools, and how every fan ought to act like some docile puppy while watching their favorite teams, but this foolish move seems to imply that the powers that be in the NCAA are nothing but idiots.
Say what you want about what Dez Bryant of Oklahoma State did, but there was nothing wrong with going to visit Deion Sanders…there is no rule against that. But if you are telling me that lying is punishable by losing an entire year, that is crap.
This is a terrible way to punish a student, and lets not forget that this is still a KID, for a full season. This punishment offers no venues for forgiveness at all. And to me, the fact that the NCAA wanted to speak to him again was a slap in the face of what some people call a “forgiving country”.
They kicked him out for the rest of the year a couple of weeks ago, and then wanted to talk to him again…for WHAT? The obvious reason was that maybe there was some way for them to work with Dez Bryant to see if they can still bring him back to play. But whatever came out of that meeting seemed to only reinforce the NCAA that lying is punishable by banishment from football.
I’m surprised the idiots didn’t arrest him…isn’t there a law for lying? (he said, but not laughing)
To me this is a terrible injustice because the NCAA is punishing this kid for lying, and he loses his entire season…how many of you remember the punch the player at Oregon threw at the beginning of the year? Guess what, he is allowed to come back because there is some grace involved.
Now I know that the ruling bodies in those two cases are different, because the NCAA did not kick that player from Oregon out (Blount), the ruling was passed by the university, and as such they could also turn it back, to which at this point they have done. But if they could do that, why couldn’t the NCAA?
Tell me which is more offensive…lying (which we ALL do, EVERYDAY!) or punching another player on national television.
I am not the biggest Oklahoma State fan, but I certainly am not a fan of the idiots of the NCAA who apparently like to destroy a kid’s chances to play for trivial reason.
Grow up NCAA!
Let’s call this what it is…a stupid move by the NCAA.
This to me is a hypocrisy of what the NCAA is supposed to stand for. They like to force all these corny public service announcements about how important academics is to these schools, and how every fan ought to act like some docile puppy while watching their favorite teams, but this foolish move seems to imply that the powers that be in the NCAA are nothing but idiots.
Say what you want about what Dez Bryant of Oklahoma State did, but there was nothing wrong with going to visit Deion Sanders…there is no rule against that. But if you are telling me that lying is punishable by losing an entire year, that is crap.
This is a terrible way to punish a student, and lets not forget that this is still a KID, for a full season. This punishment offers no venues for forgiveness at all. And to me, the fact that the NCAA wanted to speak to him again was a slap in the face of what some people call a “forgiving country”.
They kicked him out for the rest of the year a couple of weeks ago, and then wanted to talk to him again…for WHAT? The obvious reason was that maybe there was some way for them to work with Dez Bryant to see if they can still bring him back to play. But whatever came out of that meeting seemed to only reinforce the NCAA that lying is punishable by banishment from football.
I’m surprised the idiots didn’t arrest him…isn’t there a law for lying? (he said, but not laughing)
To me this is a terrible injustice because the NCAA is punishing this kid for lying, and he loses his entire season…how many of you remember the punch the player at Oregon threw at the beginning of the year? Guess what, he is allowed to come back because there is some grace involved.
Now I know that the ruling bodies in those two cases are different, because the NCAA did not kick that player from Oregon out (Blount), the ruling was passed by the university, and as such they could also turn it back, to which at this point they have done. But if they could do that, why couldn’t the NCAA?
Tell me which is more offensive…lying (which we ALL do, EVERYDAY!) or punching another player on national television.
I am not the biggest Oklahoma State fan, but I certainly am not a fan of the idiots of the NCAA who apparently like to destroy a kid’s chances to play for trivial reason.
Grow up NCAA!
The SEC Conspiracy?
The SEC Conspiracy?
So now we have a little problem here with the SEC football and their officials….
What else is really new?
As many of you know, there has been some VERY questionable calls made by SEC officials, and I remember watching one of my favorite shows, “PTI” on ESPN, and one of the guys there made a very interesting remark. He said that he felt that sometimes the officials make a call that seems to favor the WINNING team, to almost imply that sometimes the SEC officials will favor teams like LSU, Florida and Alabama over the other teams.
In fact, Tennessee Head Coach Lane Kiffin has almost implied as much, which earlier in the year people thought he was nuts.
But when Georgia was called for a celebration penalty that did not exist, that caused a problem. And then the Florida game seemed to make larger waves.
So now we have a problem, is it possible that the SEC officials are biased to the better teams, to ensure that the SEC will get their best teams to the top for a BCS Championship?
That seems foolish because after all, even if they did, Florida DID win the National Championship, right? All the scheming in the world would not have helped if they got there and lost. So there can’t be credibility to this.
But I say to you, it may not be THE factor, but it certainly has been one. Consider right now, people like to say that the SEC is the best conference…have we really seen that? Granted Alabama and Florida are undefeated, but how close did Alabama come to losing to Tennessee? VERY close. Sure they beat Ole Miss, but I honestly felt that they were seriously overrated anyway. I will give them VA Tech, that was a good game.
Florida has not put teams away like in the past, and barely escaped LSU. I know there has been some injuries on the team but sometimes the best teams are the healthiest. Both Florida and Alabama have major games this weekend…both COULD lose those games.
But the question is more about the SEC and the refs, but I think takes root in the SEC. The refs don’t make these decisions unless there is a stronger body of influence on them…that being the conference they come from. So if the refs are called into question… then the SEC as a conference must be called into question.
This is not against every fan or student, by no means am I questioning THEM, I am questioning the governing body of the SEC. Conspiracy, maybe, who am I to say, but I can give you one strong argument… African American coaches.
Everybody do your homework on this now….how many black head coaches has the SEC had in their history of college football?
Come on, you know the answer to this…
20? Nope, too high.
10? Nah, still too high.
5? Close but still to high.
2? Almost…but still too high.
The answer is one.
Folks, we are living in 2009, and the SEC has only had ONE black head coach in their history…if that does not spell a problem in “the land of the free” then something is SERIOUSLY wrong.
Sylvester Crooms is the only black head coach the SEC ever had, and I submit to you, that was conspired several years ago just to get that “goose egg” off their back. Back in about 2001 there was an interview on ABC sports about the lack of black head coaches in the NCAA, and they had the SEC Commissioner in the studio for that interview.
They asked this man about it, and his answer was almost implying “that’s just the way it is in the south”.
Jackass.
I live in the south, and although I know that is how some feel, we cannot continue to have stupid comments like that fall out of somebody’s mouth like that.
In fact, the interview with the SEC Commissioner seemed to almost backfire against him, because his ignorance seemed to be shown on national television. I remember then telling somebody that what the SEC will probably do is conspire to find the team with the worst record in the SEC, get rid of whoever that coach was, and hire a black head coach, just to say they are conforming with society…
A society that believes that quality does not come in color.
Well, to be honest, I thought that would have been Vanderbilt, since they were usually the worst team in the SEC, but Mississippi State wasn’t that far behind. So about a year or two after that interview, the SEC then had their very first black head coach…
Put on the worst team in the SEC…and expected to do miracles…yeah right.
We all know how the story goes, Crooms could not get the team to a National Championship or too many winning seasons, so they ditched him and went back to the “good ole boy” network. It might be 100 years before the SEC decides to get another black head coach, because it’s just not what stupid people do. Stupid people hire based on color of skin, not quality of character or equality.
So yeah, I DO believe there is some conspiracy going on, the past has proven it, and I love college football as much as anybody here, but sometimes the things they do are beyond foolishness. I don’t get it, the SEC has won National Championships with black quarterbacks (Tee Martin of Tennessee and Chris Leak of Florida for starters), so why is there such a racial divide for a black head coach? Heck, even the ACC, which is also in the south, has had more black head coaches in football than the SEC…in fact, got one NOW in Miami.
Oh well, far be it from me to figure this stuff out. Sometimes it just pisses me off when a sport we are supposed to have fun watching and cheering for can get tainted by morons who still live like we’re in 1959 instead of 2009.
So now we have a little problem here with the SEC football and their officials….
What else is really new?
As many of you know, there has been some VERY questionable calls made by SEC officials, and I remember watching one of my favorite shows, “PTI” on ESPN, and one of the guys there made a very interesting remark. He said that he felt that sometimes the officials make a call that seems to favor the WINNING team, to almost imply that sometimes the SEC officials will favor teams like LSU, Florida and Alabama over the other teams.
In fact, Tennessee Head Coach Lane Kiffin has almost implied as much, which earlier in the year people thought he was nuts.
But when Georgia was called for a celebration penalty that did not exist, that caused a problem. And then the Florida game seemed to make larger waves.
So now we have a problem, is it possible that the SEC officials are biased to the better teams, to ensure that the SEC will get their best teams to the top for a BCS Championship?
That seems foolish because after all, even if they did, Florida DID win the National Championship, right? All the scheming in the world would not have helped if they got there and lost. So there can’t be credibility to this.
But I say to you, it may not be THE factor, but it certainly has been one. Consider right now, people like to say that the SEC is the best conference…have we really seen that? Granted Alabama and Florida are undefeated, but how close did Alabama come to losing to Tennessee? VERY close. Sure they beat Ole Miss, but I honestly felt that they were seriously overrated anyway. I will give them VA Tech, that was a good game.
Florida has not put teams away like in the past, and barely escaped LSU. I know there has been some injuries on the team but sometimes the best teams are the healthiest. Both Florida and Alabama have major games this weekend…both COULD lose those games.
But the question is more about the SEC and the refs, but I think takes root in the SEC. The refs don’t make these decisions unless there is a stronger body of influence on them…that being the conference they come from. So if the refs are called into question… then the SEC as a conference must be called into question.
This is not against every fan or student, by no means am I questioning THEM, I am questioning the governing body of the SEC. Conspiracy, maybe, who am I to say, but I can give you one strong argument… African American coaches.
Everybody do your homework on this now….how many black head coaches has the SEC had in their history of college football?
Come on, you know the answer to this…
20? Nope, too high.
10? Nah, still too high.
5? Close but still to high.
2? Almost…but still too high.
The answer is one.
Folks, we are living in 2009, and the SEC has only had ONE black head coach in their history…if that does not spell a problem in “the land of the free” then something is SERIOUSLY wrong.
Sylvester Crooms is the only black head coach the SEC ever had, and I submit to you, that was conspired several years ago just to get that “goose egg” off their back. Back in about 2001 there was an interview on ABC sports about the lack of black head coaches in the NCAA, and they had the SEC Commissioner in the studio for that interview.
They asked this man about it, and his answer was almost implying “that’s just the way it is in the south”.
Jackass.
I live in the south, and although I know that is how some feel, we cannot continue to have stupid comments like that fall out of somebody’s mouth like that.
In fact, the interview with the SEC Commissioner seemed to almost backfire against him, because his ignorance seemed to be shown on national television. I remember then telling somebody that what the SEC will probably do is conspire to find the team with the worst record in the SEC, get rid of whoever that coach was, and hire a black head coach, just to say they are conforming with society…
A society that believes that quality does not come in color.
Well, to be honest, I thought that would have been Vanderbilt, since they were usually the worst team in the SEC, but Mississippi State wasn’t that far behind. So about a year or two after that interview, the SEC then had their very first black head coach…
Put on the worst team in the SEC…and expected to do miracles…yeah right.
We all know how the story goes, Crooms could not get the team to a National Championship or too many winning seasons, so they ditched him and went back to the “good ole boy” network. It might be 100 years before the SEC decides to get another black head coach, because it’s just not what stupid people do. Stupid people hire based on color of skin, not quality of character or equality.
So yeah, I DO believe there is some conspiracy going on, the past has proven it, and I love college football as much as anybody here, but sometimes the things they do are beyond foolishness. I don’t get it, the SEC has won National Championships with black quarterbacks (Tee Martin of Tennessee and Chris Leak of Florida for starters), so why is there such a racial divide for a black head coach? Heck, even the ACC, which is also in the south, has had more black head coaches in football than the SEC…in fact, got one NOW in Miami.
Oh well, far be it from me to figure this stuff out. Sometimes it just pisses me off when a sport we are supposed to have fun watching and cheering for can get tainted by morons who still live like we’re in 1959 instead of 2009.
Friday, October 23, 2009
New BCS TOP 10 Oct 23rd
NEW BCS Standings, Oct 23rd
Ok, if you are not hip to my blog, you might want to jump back a few posts and read what I mean by the “new” BCS. Simply put, I wanted to create a formula to decide who the best teams might be at this stage of the season, based on 24 factors.
I have used that formula to figure out who may well be the top 10 teams of the season thus far, but it is not a perfect formula. It takes into account the current facts, but as each week goes by, it can change quite dramatically. I broke the major factors into groups, and use these following to determine my formulaL
Factor #1 Wins: Most important, and I give 20 points for every win a team has.
Factors 2&3: Road and home wins: I place a bit more emphasis on winning at home, and protecting your house, than on the road. I give 7 extra points for every home win, and 5 extra points for every road win.
Factors 4-6: FBS factor: I give 7 points for every team you beat that is in your conference, and 3 points for every team out of your conference. IF you play a team that is not a FBS school, you LOSE two points. This rewards those who play tougher schedules, and penalizes the cupcakes.
Factors 7-10 Ranked foes: You get extra points for knocking off a top 25 team at the time they were ranked. If you beat a #4 team in week 3, and they fall off by week 6, you still get credit for beating them when they were ranked. I give 10 points to any team that knocks off a top 5 team, 7 points for beating a 6-10 team, 5 points for beating a team ranked between 11-15 and 3 points for beating any team from 16 to 25.
Factors 11-13: Strength factor: I reward extra points if you beat a team that has a winning record, or even a .500 record. I give 7 points for every team on your schedule that has a winning record as the season goes on. Any team with an even record nets you 3 points, but any team that falls under .500, you LOSE 2 points.
Factors 14-16: Beatdown factor: The more points you pile on, the more you get. But you must beat your team by at least 16 to qualify. If a team wins by over 16 points, I give them one extra point. If they win by over 24 points, I give them 3 points. If they crush their opponent by over 36, they get 5 extra points.
Factors 17-19: Passing factor: A team is considered great if they are a top 20 passing team OR rushing…or both. I give 5 points to the team that is in the top 5 in passing yards and touchdowns, for a total of 10 points possible. I give 3 points if they are in the top 10 in either category, and 1 point if they are in the top 20 in either.
Factors 20-22: Rushing factor: Same as Passing, I give 5 points if a team is in the top 5 in rushing yards or rushing touchdowns, and 3 points if in the top 10, and a single point if in the top 20.
Factors 23-24: Defense factor: They say offense wins games but defense wins championships. I am not so sure about that, but I do give 5 additional points if the team holds each opponent to under 8 points, and 2 points if they hold each team under 16. It’s my way of rewarding good defensive play.
Now, having gone through all that, here are my top 1 teams according to my NEW BCS formula:
#12 LSU: 189 points. With no real valuable wins, and nowhere in the top 20 in passing or rushing, this team edges out at the bottom of my list.
#11 Miami: 195 points. Similar to LSU, as far as rushing and passing, but some very quality wins keeps them in the loop.
#10 AND #9 TIE USC and Oregon: 205 points. Two one loss teams out of the Pac 10 look pretty good, but we know that they have to play one another soon… this problem will fix itself.
#8 TCU: 222 points: TCU scores in every category, but they need a couple of quality wins to jump over anybody…they are on track to see those very games ahead.
#7 Boise State: 225 points: Very narrow margin with Boise State, and with no real quality wins left, I see them slipping further down. It won’t take much for TCU to overtake them if both continue to win.
#6 Cincinnati: 234 points: This seems to prove that an undefeated team out of even a “weaker” BCS conference is indeed better than Boise State or TCU, and Cincinnati has a couple of big games yet to come.
#5 Georgia Tech: 237 points: With 7 games played, they do have an advantage over those who have so far played 6, so this score may not be totally honest and even. But considering they have one loss, this will be a serious question if they win out.
#4 Texas: 238 points: Some question how Texas has played lately, and a few even say that Texas will lose to Missouri. But to me this is one of the best teams in the nation, and if they sweep the Big 12, they are a shoe in for the National Title.
#3 Florida: 247 points: Much that is said about Texas can be said about Florida and their many close games. But like Texas, if they win out, they are likely in the BCS Championship.
#2 Iowa: 291 points: I have Iowa here only because they have 7 wins, and no one else underneath them has such. The extra game, to this point, has been the reason why they are here at #2. What my formula seems to imply is that winning, and more of it, is indeed most important. But as the other teams play their schedule, things will even out.
#1 Alabama: 297 points: Just as with Iowa, Alabama has 7 wins as well, which on paper look more impressive than 6 wins. If you consider that they are 40 points ahead of Florida and Texas, this could easily be about even. Alabama has the edge only because they get the benefits of the points for a 7th win. As more games are played, we will see the truth come out.
So that’s what I got so far folks, I don’t claim to say this is the gospel, just something fun to do to make conversation. As it stands right now, I have Alabama and Iowa as the two best teams, but ONLY because they have 7 wins. After all, a 7-0 record is better than a 6-0 record, right?
Right? (he said, expecting a debate….)
Ok, if you are not hip to my blog, you might want to jump back a few posts and read what I mean by the “new” BCS. Simply put, I wanted to create a formula to decide who the best teams might be at this stage of the season, based on 24 factors.
I have used that formula to figure out who may well be the top 10 teams of the season thus far, but it is not a perfect formula. It takes into account the current facts, but as each week goes by, it can change quite dramatically. I broke the major factors into groups, and use these following to determine my formulaL
Factor #1 Wins: Most important, and I give 20 points for every win a team has.
Factors 2&3: Road and home wins: I place a bit more emphasis on winning at home, and protecting your house, than on the road. I give 7 extra points for every home win, and 5 extra points for every road win.
Factors 4-6: FBS factor: I give 7 points for every team you beat that is in your conference, and 3 points for every team out of your conference. IF you play a team that is not a FBS school, you LOSE two points. This rewards those who play tougher schedules, and penalizes the cupcakes.
Factors 7-10 Ranked foes: You get extra points for knocking off a top 25 team at the time they were ranked. If you beat a #4 team in week 3, and they fall off by week 6, you still get credit for beating them when they were ranked. I give 10 points to any team that knocks off a top 5 team, 7 points for beating a 6-10 team, 5 points for beating a team ranked between 11-15 and 3 points for beating any team from 16 to 25.
Factors 11-13: Strength factor: I reward extra points if you beat a team that has a winning record, or even a .500 record. I give 7 points for every team on your schedule that has a winning record as the season goes on. Any team with an even record nets you 3 points, but any team that falls under .500, you LOSE 2 points.
Factors 14-16: Beatdown factor: The more points you pile on, the more you get. But you must beat your team by at least 16 to qualify. If a team wins by over 16 points, I give them one extra point. If they win by over 24 points, I give them 3 points. If they crush their opponent by over 36, they get 5 extra points.
Factors 17-19: Passing factor: A team is considered great if they are a top 20 passing team OR rushing…or both. I give 5 points to the team that is in the top 5 in passing yards and touchdowns, for a total of 10 points possible. I give 3 points if they are in the top 10 in either category, and 1 point if they are in the top 20 in either.
Factors 20-22: Rushing factor: Same as Passing, I give 5 points if a team is in the top 5 in rushing yards or rushing touchdowns, and 3 points if in the top 10, and a single point if in the top 20.
Factors 23-24: Defense factor: They say offense wins games but defense wins championships. I am not so sure about that, but I do give 5 additional points if the team holds each opponent to under 8 points, and 2 points if they hold each team under 16. It’s my way of rewarding good defensive play.
Now, having gone through all that, here are my top 1 teams according to my NEW BCS formula:
#12 LSU: 189 points. With no real valuable wins, and nowhere in the top 20 in passing or rushing, this team edges out at the bottom of my list.
#11 Miami: 195 points. Similar to LSU, as far as rushing and passing, but some very quality wins keeps them in the loop.
#10 AND #9 TIE USC and Oregon: 205 points. Two one loss teams out of the Pac 10 look pretty good, but we know that they have to play one another soon… this problem will fix itself.
#8 TCU: 222 points: TCU scores in every category, but they need a couple of quality wins to jump over anybody…they are on track to see those very games ahead.
#7 Boise State: 225 points: Very narrow margin with Boise State, and with no real quality wins left, I see them slipping further down. It won’t take much for TCU to overtake them if both continue to win.
#6 Cincinnati: 234 points: This seems to prove that an undefeated team out of even a “weaker” BCS conference is indeed better than Boise State or TCU, and Cincinnati has a couple of big games yet to come.
#5 Georgia Tech: 237 points: With 7 games played, they do have an advantage over those who have so far played 6, so this score may not be totally honest and even. But considering they have one loss, this will be a serious question if they win out.
#4 Texas: 238 points: Some question how Texas has played lately, and a few even say that Texas will lose to Missouri. But to me this is one of the best teams in the nation, and if they sweep the Big 12, they are a shoe in for the National Title.
#3 Florida: 247 points: Much that is said about Texas can be said about Florida and their many close games. But like Texas, if they win out, they are likely in the BCS Championship.
#2 Iowa: 291 points: I have Iowa here only because they have 7 wins, and no one else underneath them has such. The extra game, to this point, has been the reason why they are here at #2. What my formula seems to imply is that winning, and more of it, is indeed most important. But as the other teams play their schedule, things will even out.
#1 Alabama: 297 points: Just as with Iowa, Alabama has 7 wins as well, which on paper look more impressive than 6 wins. If you consider that they are 40 points ahead of Florida and Texas, this could easily be about even. Alabama has the edge only because they get the benefits of the points for a 7th win. As more games are played, we will see the truth come out.
So that’s what I got so far folks, I don’t claim to say this is the gospel, just something fun to do to make conversation. As it stands right now, I have Alabama and Iowa as the two best teams, but ONLY because they have 7 wins. After all, a 7-0 record is better than a 6-0 record, right?
Right? (he said, expecting a debate….)
Florida State 30, UNC 27
Florida State 30 UNC 27
Speedblog
I’ll admit, this was a tough game for me to watch, in fact, I spent more time flipping channels between Southern vs. Prarie View, the UFL game on VS, and even the preseason basketball game of the Lakers vs. the Nuggets.
I was concerned because I had a lot of mixed feelings for this game.
I am a UNC fan through and through, but we all know that the football edge of UNC isn’t why most people support the Tarheels. And I also like Florida State, not because of the Seminoles, but because I believe Bobby Bowden is one of those guys that should be respected for what he has done for the program.
What ticks me off is when some idiot starts to use age discrimination against the man who built the program from the ground up. And sadly, a lot of the guys on ESPN are on the fence about Bobby Bowden.
What this shows is that we as a people are ignorant to history, and we can see something 2 days ago, but still refuse to acknowledge it. Wasn’t it just a few years ago when the media was using age against Joe Paterno? How did that turn out so far?
And people like to talk about the “what have you done for me lately”. Well, wasn’t Florida State 9-4 LAST YEAR? It’s like these idiots developed amnesia about this coaching legend! So now Florida State comes in Chapel Hill 2-4, and Bowden’s coaching life on the line.
I blogged about this and felt that FSU should win because 5 out of the 6 games they have had thus far were against winning teams, and most have been ranked throughout the season. Folks, that is one hell of a schedule so far. But it gets easier, and it is possible that FSU can win at least 6, maybe as much as 7 games. I also felt that a lot of their losses come in their home state, that the road games might be the best thing for these Seminoles.
On the flip side, as much as I love UNC, their 4-2 record seemed bogus to me, although last year it was pretty good. They had only played one ranked team so far this year, and lost to them. I just felt that Florida State was good enough to beat UNC, and I figured it would be by 6 points. Turns out they won by 3.
So FSU is now 3-4, with a home game vs. NC State. Normally I think they can win, but again, there is some uncanny problem about FSU playing in their home state. They NEED this win, but so far they have one 1 game in the last SIX at home…not a good stat.
But if they can get by the Wolfpack, the road games vs. Clemson and Wake Forest could get them on the right track. It is possible for them to be 6-4 after that, or maybe 5-5. They will need to beat Maryland at home to likely qualify for a bowl, because that last game is on the road vs. Florida.
For the Tarheels, life gets harder. They go TO Virginia Tech, which could end up being a 4-4 result. They are home vs. Duke and Miami, and most think they will split that, before going on the road to play Boston College and NC State. It is quite possible that the hated rivals of UNC/NC State could decide whether UNC qualifies for a bowl.
In truth, I am pulling for both teams, but they still have to perform on the field…my best to them both.
Speedblog
I’ll admit, this was a tough game for me to watch, in fact, I spent more time flipping channels between Southern vs. Prarie View, the UFL game on VS, and even the preseason basketball game of the Lakers vs. the Nuggets.
I was concerned because I had a lot of mixed feelings for this game.
I am a UNC fan through and through, but we all know that the football edge of UNC isn’t why most people support the Tarheels. And I also like Florida State, not because of the Seminoles, but because I believe Bobby Bowden is one of those guys that should be respected for what he has done for the program.
What ticks me off is when some idiot starts to use age discrimination against the man who built the program from the ground up. And sadly, a lot of the guys on ESPN are on the fence about Bobby Bowden.
What this shows is that we as a people are ignorant to history, and we can see something 2 days ago, but still refuse to acknowledge it. Wasn’t it just a few years ago when the media was using age against Joe Paterno? How did that turn out so far?
And people like to talk about the “what have you done for me lately”. Well, wasn’t Florida State 9-4 LAST YEAR? It’s like these idiots developed amnesia about this coaching legend! So now Florida State comes in Chapel Hill 2-4, and Bowden’s coaching life on the line.
I blogged about this and felt that FSU should win because 5 out of the 6 games they have had thus far were against winning teams, and most have been ranked throughout the season. Folks, that is one hell of a schedule so far. But it gets easier, and it is possible that FSU can win at least 6, maybe as much as 7 games. I also felt that a lot of their losses come in their home state, that the road games might be the best thing for these Seminoles.
On the flip side, as much as I love UNC, their 4-2 record seemed bogus to me, although last year it was pretty good. They had only played one ranked team so far this year, and lost to them. I just felt that Florida State was good enough to beat UNC, and I figured it would be by 6 points. Turns out they won by 3.
So FSU is now 3-4, with a home game vs. NC State. Normally I think they can win, but again, there is some uncanny problem about FSU playing in their home state. They NEED this win, but so far they have one 1 game in the last SIX at home…not a good stat.
But if they can get by the Wolfpack, the road games vs. Clemson and Wake Forest could get them on the right track. It is possible for them to be 6-4 after that, or maybe 5-5. They will need to beat Maryland at home to likely qualify for a bowl, because that last game is on the road vs. Florida.
For the Tarheels, life gets harder. They go TO Virginia Tech, which could end up being a 4-4 result. They are home vs. Duke and Miami, and most think they will split that, before going on the road to play Boston College and NC State. It is quite possible that the hated rivals of UNC/NC State could decide whether UNC qualifies for a bowl.
In truth, I am pulling for both teams, but they still have to perform on the field…my best to them both.
Naysayers of Cincinnati
Any Naysayers of Cincinnati?
Speedblog
Let’s talk a little about Cincinnati…and I don’t mean the BENGALS!
I am pleased to this point about Cincinnati, because I think the media did the Big East an injustice by omitting the ENTIRE conference from the top 25 poll. To me, that is foolish to think that no team in the Big East could be considered to be one of the top 25 teams in the nation.
This seems to show how stupid voters are, when they omit a team that last year, won 11 games. Now I know other teams like Ball State won 12 and stuff like that there, but any team from a BCS conference that had 11 wins last year ought to at least been put on the top 25 at the beginning. If you are foolish enough to put Notre Dame up there for 7 weak wins last year, you ought to have put Cincinnati up there at the beginning of the year.
But they didn’t so the Big East got no love. And all Cincinnati did was fight their way up the rankings up to #5 on the BCS and AP Polls. Personally, I think Cincinnati is right where they need to be, as my New BCS Formula had, at this moment, Alabama, Iowa, Florida, Texas, Cincinnati, Boise State and TCU, in that order… but if you read my blogs on this, you know that Alabama and Iowa’s scores are based on the fact that they had 7 games, and everybody else had 6.
So Cincinnati is in the mix right now…do they have a shot? What is hurting them at the moment is that their schedule isn’t top notch. Their only quality win against a top 25 opponent was against South Florida. And their next two games are against the bottom feeders of the Big East, so they might slip a bit for that.
But with games vs. West Virginia and Pittsburgh, they need those teams to stay in the top 25, so they’ll have to actually be pulling for them until they face them on the field. As it stands now, Cincinnati needs to play tougher foes to stay a step ahead of Boise state. Remember, one of their 3 losses last year came from Connecticut, so they have to be careful.
I have to think that deep down, the entire Big East conference is pulling for Cincinnati just as the ACC was pulling for Virginia Tech, both conferences need to make a mark in the BCS to validate their strength. Most people felt that these two conferences underachieved last year, which is debatable. But right now, Cincinnati commands respect because we know Alabama and Florida must meet if they continue their paths (SEC Championship) and Texas has to run the tables to the Big 12 Championship. Teams like Cincinnati, UCS and Iowa don’t have conference championships, so it is one less game to worry about. Can the Bearcats get there if they go undefeated? Can they???
Speedblog
Let’s talk a little about Cincinnati…and I don’t mean the BENGALS!
I am pleased to this point about Cincinnati, because I think the media did the Big East an injustice by omitting the ENTIRE conference from the top 25 poll. To me, that is foolish to think that no team in the Big East could be considered to be one of the top 25 teams in the nation.
This seems to show how stupid voters are, when they omit a team that last year, won 11 games. Now I know other teams like Ball State won 12 and stuff like that there, but any team from a BCS conference that had 11 wins last year ought to at least been put on the top 25 at the beginning. If you are foolish enough to put Notre Dame up there for 7 weak wins last year, you ought to have put Cincinnati up there at the beginning of the year.
But they didn’t so the Big East got no love. And all Cincinnati did was fight their way up the rankings up to #5 on the BCS and AP Polls. Personally, I think Cincinnati is right where they need to be, as my New BCS Formula had, at this moment, Alabama, Iowa, Florida, Texas, Cincinnati, Boise State and TCU, in that order… but if you read my blogs on this, you know that Alabama and Iowa’s scores are based on the fact that they had 7 games, and everybody else had 6.
So Cincinnati is in the mix right now…do they have a shot? What is hurting them at the moment is that their schedule isn’t top notch. Their only quality win against a top 25 opponent was against South Florida. And their next two games are against the bottom feeders of the Big East, so they might slip a bit for that.
But with games vs. West Virginia and Pittsburgh, they need those teams to stay in the top 25, so they’ll have to actually be pulling for them until they face them on the field. As it stands now, Cincinnati needs to play tougher foes to stay a step ahead of Boise state. Remember, one of their 3 losses last year came from Connecticut, so they have to be careful.
I have to think that deep down, the entire Big East conference is pulling for Cincinnati just as the ACC was pulling for Virginia Tech, both conferences need to make a mark in the BCS to validate their strength. Most people felt that these two conferences underachieved last year, which is debatable. But right now, Cincinnati commands respect because we know Alabama and Florida must meet if they continue their paths (SEC Championship) and Texas has to run the tables to the Big 12 Championship. Teams like Cincinnati, UCS and Iowa don’t have conference championships, so it is one less game to worry about. Can the Bearcats get there if they go undefeated? Can they???
Thursday, October 22, 2009
Florida State vs UNC
Florida State vs. UNC
This is one of those games that few outside the ACC are paying attention to, but those in North Carolina and Florida are looking at very seriously.
Two teams that were thought to be in the mix for the ACC crown, but to this point have been very disappointing. UNC was 8-5 last year, and Florida State was 9-4, so you assume that these two teams would have much to say about playing in that ACC Championship.
Not exactly.
Both teams are at the bottom of their division; neither team has a conference win yet, collectively 0-5 and yet their records are reversed. While UNC is at least 4-2, Florida State is the inverse, at 2-4.
Florida State needs this win for every reason known to man. A coach being forced to quit, the team struggling to win games, and the need to restore some pride to the Seminole nation. But get this, of the last 8 losses, extending to last year, SIX of them come from their own home. Imagine that, not winning in your own house!
Last year they lost home games to Wake Forest by 9, Boston College by 10 and to Florida by 30. That’s three of their 4 losses last year. This year they lose at home to Miami by 4, South Florida by 10, and Georgia Tech by 5. Outside of the Florida loss last year, Florida State has not lost by much, by usually one possession.
So this could just as well be a team that is winning more than they are losing, but why do I think that maybe familiarity is the Seminole’s problem? Sometimes you spend too much time playing in front of Florida fans that you forget that you are a target to everybody else. Maybe Florida State is too comfortable at home, and NEEDS to get out of the state and play. Hey, it worked against BYU didn’t it?
And correct me if I am wrong…aren’t they playing AT UNC tonight?
On the other end, UNC has a decent record, but it still isn’t proving a thing. Last year their 8-5 record seemed nice, with wins over Connecticut, Notre Dame and Rutgers. But they were not consistent in their conference, losing games to Maryland, NC State and even Duke…back to back to back!
This year that 4-2 record looks cute, but beating Citadel, ECU and Georgia Southern is hardly impressive at all. They do have a decent win over Connecticut, but the Huskies have been a mid-card team in the Big East (prayers to their lost player).
The schedule gets much tougher for UNC, and they have only beaten Florida State once in their history. With upcoming games vs. Virginia Tech, Miami, Boston College and rival NC State, UNC really, REALLY needs this win to hope for a bowl. If they lose this game to Florida State, they could struggle to get those 6 wins needed to go to a bowl.
This is going to be a hard game to call, because I personally think Florida State is much better than they have shown. Mind you, FSU has played 5 teams that have been, or currently ranked…that is a tough schedule. UNC played only one…and lost. I think Florida State plays better outside of the state, because they don’t have the distractions of the expectations of playing in a historically great program. Perhaps they need this game to get out and, oddly enough, relax.
But UNC has some quality wins with them from last year. At home they did beat Connecticut, Notre Dame, Boston College and Georgia Tech. Something has to give.
I am a UNC fan at heart, but I still think FSU has what it takes to win, and with their backs against the wall, I think they will perform. This may not be the team that crushed BYU, but it won’t be the team that barely beat Jacksonville State…which by the way was another Florida game.
Perhaps FSU ought to consider playing all their games outside the state of Florida… if they win tonight, expect some radical changes in their schedules (smile). I think Florida State wins by 6 points.
This is one of those games that few outside the ACC are paying attention to, but those in North Carolina and Florida are looking at very seriously.
Two teams that were thought to be in the mix for the ACC crown, but to this point have been very disappointing. UNC was 8-5 last year, and Florida State was 9-4, so you assume that these two teams would have much to say about playing in that ACC Championship.
Not exactly.
Both teams are at the bottom of their division; neither team has a conference win yet, collectively 0-5 and yet their records are reversed. While UNC is at least 4-2, Florida State is the inverse, at 2-4.
Florida State needs this win for every reason known to man. A coach being forced to quit, the team struggling to win games, and the need to restore some pride to the Seminole nation. But get this, of the last 8 losses, extending to last year, SIX of them come from their own home. Imagine that, not winning in your own house!
Last year they lost home games to Wake Forest by 9, Boston College by 10 and to Florida by 30. That’s three of their 4 losses last year. This year they lose at home to Miami by 4, South Florida by 10, and Georgia Tech by 5. Outside of the Florida loss last year, Florida State has not lost by much, by usually one possession.
So this could just as well be a team that is winning more than they are losing, but why do I think that maybe familiarity is the Seminole’s problem? Sometimes you spend too much time playing in front of Florida fans that you forget that you are a target to everybody else. Maybe Florida State is too comfortable at home, and NEEDS to get out of the state and play. Hey, it worked against BYU didn’t it?
And correct me if I am wrong…aren’t they playing AT UNC tonight?
On the other end, UNC has a decent record, but it still isn’t proving a thing. Last year their 8-5 record seemed nice, with wins over Connecticut, Notre Dame and Rutgers. But they were not consistent in their conference, losing games to Maryland, NC State and even Duke…back to back to back!
This year that 4-2 record looks cute, but beating Citadel, ECU and Georgia Southern is hardly impressive at all. They do have a decent win over Connecticut, but the Huskies have been a mid-card team in the Big East (prayers to their lost player).
The schedule gets much tougher for UNC, and they have only beaten Florida State once in their history. With upcoming games vs. Virginia Tech, Miami, Boston College and rival NC State, UNC really, REALLY needs this win to hope for a bowl. If they lose this game to Florida State, they could struggle to get those 6 wins needed to go to a bowl.
This is going to be a hard game to call, because I personally think Florida State is much better than they have shown. Mind you, FSU has played 5 teams that have been, or currently ranked…that is a tough schedule. UNC played only one…and lost. I think Florida State plays better outside of the state, because they don’t have the distractions of the expectations of playing in a historically great program. Perhaps they need this game to get out and, oddly enough, relax.
But UNC has some quality wins with them from last year. At home they did beat Connecticut, Notre Dame, Boston College and Georgia Tech. Something has to give.
I am a UNC fan at heart, but I still think FSU has what it takes to win, and with their backs against the wall, I think they will perform. This may not be the team that crushed BYU, but it won’t be the team that barely beat Jacksonville State…which by the way was another Florida game.
Perhaps FSU ought to consider playing all their games outside the state of Florida… if they win tonight, expect some radical changes in their schedules (smile). I think Florida State wins by 6 points.
New BCS: Iowa and Cincinnati
New BCS Formula: Iowa and Cincinnati
Now, if you are confused about what I am writing, bounce back to the previous post about the Florida rankings and my new BCS Formula. It will explain a few things for you.
This is simply my attempt to find a different way to determine who the best teams in the FCS are, rather than simply letting media-heads with biased opinions guess on who are the top 25.
To do this, I thought about some of the most basic factors in determining the best teams. I combined them, gave values for each and award such points to every team who accomplishes the factor. I came up with 24 different factors, but they actually can be broken down into 9 different groups.
To demonstrate, I will run two undefeated teams through this formula, using Iowa and Cincinnati:
To start off, I give the most points simply for winning…it is of course the most important factor of getting to the BCS, right?
Factor #1 Winning: I give 20 points for every win a team has. Because Iowa is 7-0, they get 140 points. Because Cincinnati is 6-0, they get 120 points.
Factors 2&3: Where you win is important, and you get points for that. I believe home wins are more important because you must “protect this house” as a commercial once said. I give 7 points for each home win, and 5 points for each road win. Iowa has 4 home wins, which gives them 28 points, while Cincinnati has 2 home wins, for 14 points. For the road games, Iowa has 3 road wins for 15 points, Cincinnati has 4 road wins, for 20 points.
If you are keeping score, that gives Iowa 183 points to Cincinnati’s 154.
Factors 3-5: The type of opponent you beat is important, and can even cost you a few points. I give credit to beating conference opponents, non conference opponents and I also penalize for playing a non-division I team. To me, a great team has to dominate their own conference first, then any wins outside the conference is extra. Beating a team not in the Division I means nothing to a great team.
So under these factors, Iowa gets 21 points for conference wins, 20 points for non-conference wins, but loses 2 points for playing Northern Iowa. That gives them 39 points.
Cincinnati gets 14 points for conference wins, 20 points for non-conference wins, but loses 2 points for playing SE Missouri State. That gives them a total of 32 points.
Score so far, Iowa 222 points, Cincinnati 186.
Factors 7-10: It is also important to beat teams that are ranked, and I used the AP poll as a constant to determine the points awarded. You get more points if you knock off a top 25 team. I give 10 points to any team beating a top 5 squad, 7 points for beating a team 6-10, I give 5 points for beating a team ranked 11-15, and 3 points for any team under that, but still ranked.
This rewards teams that prove that they are indeed one of the best teams in the land, rather than beating cupcakes every Saturday. To date, Iowa has only beaten one team that was ranked, which was #5 Penn State. That gives them 10 points.
Cincinnati has only defeated formerly ranked South Florida, which was #21. For that they get only 3 points.
Total so far, Iowa 232, Cincinnati 189.
Factors 11-13: Strength of opponent: I award points if you beat a team that is currently over .500 or even. I penalize if you beat a team that is under .500. This awards beating teams with winning records, and although a team can’t control the fate of their opponents, it still has to factor in.
Amazingly, 6 of Iowa’s 7 opponents have a winning record, and I give 7 points for each win, for a big 49 points. They lose only 2 points after that because they have one opponent with a losing record at this time, so their total here is 47 points.
Cincinnati has beaten 3 teams with a current winning record, which gives them 21 points. They also have a victory against a team that is even, which gives them 3 more points, but loses 4 points because they beat two teams with losing records. This gives them a sub total of 20 points.
So far, Iowa 279, Cincinnati 209.
Factors 14-16: Style points: I don’t care what anybody says, the way you beat your opponent does say a lot about how good you are. This is not to influence running up the score, but clearly it determines your strength. I give 5 points for every win over 36 points, 3 points for every win over 24 points and 1 point for every win over 16 points. So if a team wins by 30, I slot them in the highest slot possible, which would be the 24+ factor, giving them 3 points. I would not put them in multiple slots, I put them in the highest one they qualify for.
Knowing this, Iowa only gets 3 points because of their win over Iowa State. No other games qualify them since nearly all their games have been close. Cincinnati has one game where they won by over 36 points (+5), one other game where they won by over 24 points (+3) and two games where they won by over 16 (1 pt for each win). That gives Cincinnati a total of 10 points in this set of factors.
Score, Iowa 282, Cincinnati 219
Factors 17-19 Passing credits: I award points if a team is in the top 5, 10 or 20 in passing by either yards or touchdowns. Because teams may use multiple quarterbacks, I use any that are on the top 20. I give 5 points if a team is in the top 5 in yards OR touchdowns. I give 3 points if they are in the top 10, and 1 point if they are on the top 20.
In this case, which does change weekly, Iowa is NOT on the top 20 in either case, but Cincinnati is on the top 5 in touchdowns and top 20 in yards. The Bearcats get 6 points for this, while Iowa gets none.
Iowa still at 282, Cincinnati now has 225.
Factors 20-22 Rushing credits: Just like passing, the points are the same if a team is in the top 5, 10 or 20 for rushing in either yards or touchdowns. But in this case, NEITHER team gets any points since they do not rank in the top 20 in either touchdowns or yards. So the score remains the same.
Factors 23 & 24: Points given up: I award 5 points for every game where the defense allowed UNDER 8 points, and 2 points for every game the defense allowed under 16 points. This acknowledges defensive play, and could rack up some nice numbers.
Under these factors, Iowa had 2 games where they allowed under 16 points, and one game where they allowed under 8 points. They get 2 points for each of those two games, and 5 points for allowing under 8 in a game, for a total of 9 points. Cincinnati is exactly the same, having two games where they allowed under 16, and one game where the defense allowed under 8 points, so they get 9 points as well.
So the grand total, as of this week, Iowa 291, Cincinnati 234.
So where does this put them in the top 5? If we used the same formula for Florida, Boise State, Alabama and Texas, which I did in the previous blog, this is what we have:
1. Alabama 297 points
2. Iowa 291 points
3. Florida 247 points
4. Texas 238 points
5. Cincinnati 234 points
6. Boise State 225 points.
I remind you that Alabama and Iowa have the advantage of playing 7 games, not six, so that explains why they are so far ahead of the others at this point in time. Remember, I award 20 points off the top just for winning, so the 50 point difference between them and the others is partly based on that.
But you can also see where Boise State is, at number 6, based on the current circumstances. I ran TCU under the same formula and they came out with 222 points, just a hair short of Boise State…but remember, this is just for this week, it changes weekly.
So at this moment, Iowa and Alabama are the best teams in the nation, but only because they have one more game under their belts. Considering that you can get a good 40-60 points per win, Texas, Florida and Cincinnati are not that far behind at all.
We will see how it goes.
Now, if you are confused about what I am writing, bounce back to the previous post about the Florida rankings and my new BCS Formula. It will explain a few things for you.
This is simply my attempt to find a different way to determine who the best teams in the FCS are, rather than simply letting media-heads with biased opinions guess on who are the top 25.
To do this, I thought about some of the most basic factors in determining the best teams. I combined them, gave values for each and award such points to every team who accomplishes the factor. I came up with 24 different factors, but they actually can be broken down into 9 different groups.
To demonstrate, I will run two undefeated teams through this formula, using Iowa and Cincinnati:
To start off, I give the most points simply for winning…it is of course the most important factor of getting to the BCS, right?
Factor #1 Winning: I give 20 points for every win a team has. Because Iowa is 7-0, they get 140 points. Because Cincinnati is 6-0, they get 120 points.
Factors 2&3: Where you win is important, and you get points for that. I believe home wins are more important because you must “protect this house” as a commercial once said. I give 7 points for each home win, and 5 points for each road win. Iowa has 4 home wins, which gives them 28 points, while Cincinnati has 2 home wins, for 14 points. For the road games, Iowa has 3 road wins for 15 points, Cincinnati has 4 road wins, for 20 points.
If you are keeping score, that gives Iowa 183 points to Cincinnati’s 154.
Factors 3-5: The type of opponent you beat is important, and can even cost you a few points. I give credit to beating conference opponents, non conference opponents and I also penalize for playing a non-division I team. To me, a great team has to dominate their own conference first, then any wins outside the conference is extra. Beating a team not in the Division I means nothing to a great team.
So under these factors, Iowa gets 21 points for conference wins, 20 points for non-conference wins, but loses 2 points for playing Northern Iowa. That gives them 39 points.
Cincinnati gets 14 points for conference wins, 20 points for non-conference wins, but loses 2 points for playing SE Missouri State. That gives them a total of 32 points.
Score so far, Iowa 222 points, Cincinnati 186.
Factors 7-10: It is also important to beat teams that are ranked, and I used the AP poll as a constant to determine the points awarded. You get more points if you knock off a top 25 team. I give 10 points to any team beating a top 5 squad, 7 points for beating a team 6-10, I give 5 points for beating a team ranked 11-15, and 3 points for any team under that, but still ranked.
This rewards teams that prove that they are indeed one of the best teams in the land, rather than beating cupcakes every Saturday. To date, Iowa has only beaten one team that was ranked, which was #5 Penn State. That gives them 10 points.
Cincinnati has only defeated formerly ranked South Florida, which was #21. For that they get only 3 points.
Total so far, Iowa 232, Cincinnati 189.
Factors 11-13: Strength of opponent: I award points if you beat a team that is currently over .500 or even. I penalize if you beat a team that is under .500. This awards beating teams with winning records, and although a team can’t control the fate of their opponents, it still has to factor in.
Amazingly, 6 of Iowa’s 7 opponents have a winning record, and I give 7 points for each win, for a big 49 points. They lose only 2 points after that because they have one opponent with a losing record at this time, so their total here is 47 points.
Cincinnati has beaten 3 teams with a current winning record, which gives them 21 points. They also have a victory against a team that is even, which gives them 3 more points, but loses 4 points because they beat two teams with losing records. This gives them a sub total of 20 points.
So far, Iowa 279, Cincinnati 209.
Factors 14-16: Style points: I don’t care what anybody says, the way you beat your opponent does say a lot about how good you are. This is not to influence running up the score, but clearly it determines your strength. I give 5 points for every win over 36 points, 3 points for every win over 24 points and 1 point for every win over 16 points. So if a team wins by 30, I slot them in the highest slot possible, which would be the 24+ factor, giving them 3 points. I would not put them in multiple slots, I put them in the highest one they qualify for.
Knowing this, Iowa only gets 3 points because of their win over Iowa State. No other games qualify them since nearly all their games have been close. Cincinnati has one game where they won by over 36 points (+5), one other game where they won by over 24 points (+3) and two games where they won by over 16 (1 pt for each win). That gives Cincinnati a total of 10 points in this set of factors.
Score, Iowa 282, Cincinnati 219
Factors 17-19 Passing credits: I award points if a team is in the top 5, 10 or 20 in passing by either yards or touchdowns. Because teams may use multiple quarterbacks, I use any that are on the top 20. I give 5 points if a team is in the top 5 in yards OR touchdowns. I give 3 points if they are in the top 10, and 1 point if they are on the top 20.
In this case, which does change weekly, Iowa is NOT on the top 20 in either case, but Cincinnati is on the top 5 in touchdowns and top 20 in yards. The Bearcats get 6 points for this, while Iowa gets none.
Iowa still at 282, Cincinnati now has 225.
Factors 20-22 Rushing credits: Just like passing, the points are the same if a team is in the top 5, 10 or 20 for rushing in either yards or touchdowns. But in this case, NEITHER team gets any points since they do not rank in the top 20 in either touchdowns or yards. So the score remains the same.
Factors 23 & 24: Points given up: I award 5 points for every game where the defense allowed UNDER 8 points, and 2 points for every game the defense allowed under 16 points. This acknowledges defensive play, and could rack up some nice numbers.
Under these factors, Iowa had 2 games where they allowed under 16 points, and one game where they allowed under 8 points. They get 2 points for each of those two games, and 5 points for allowing under 8 in a game, for a total of 9 points. Cincinnati is exactly the same, having two games where they allowed under 16, and one game where the defense allowed under 8 points, so they get 9 points as well.
So the grand total, as of this week, Iowa 291, Cincinnati 234.
So where does this put them in the top 5? If we used the same formula for Florida, Boise State, Alabama and Texas, which I did in the previous blog, this is what we have:
1. Alabama 297 points
2. Iowa 291 points
3. Florida 247 points
4. Texas 238 points
5. Cincinnati 234 points
6. Boise State 225 points.
I remind you that Alabama and Iowa have the advantage of playing 7 games, not six, so that explains why they are so far ahead of the others at this point in time. Remember, I award 20 points off the top just for winning, so the 50 point difference between them and the others is partly based on that.
But you can also see where Boise State is, at number 6, based on the current circumstances. I ran TCU under the same formula and they came out with 222 points, just a hair short of Boise State…but remember, this is just for this week, it changes weekly.
So at this moment, Iowa and Alabama are the best teams in the nation, but only because they have one more game under their belts. Considering that you can get a good 40-60 points per win, Texas, Florida and Cincinnati are not that far behind at all.
We will see how it goes.
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
The NEW BCS: Florida scores
The NEW BCS: Florida score
In an attempt to make a case about who the REAL best teams in college football are, I came up with a formula that awards points to teams based on 24 different categories. In a foolish attempt to try this out, I decided to see how the top teams would fare in my formula, and where they might land after the first week of the BCS scores have come out.
We start first with the number one team, Florida, and will give points based on the following, and add (or subtract) at the end.
Factor #1 Wins: You get 20 points for every win you have, because this is one of the most significant factors in college football…you must WIN your games. Nobody cares for a team with 2 or 3 losses, we want to see undefeated teams in the BCS Championship (in theory). Florida is 6-0, so that is 6 X 20, or 120 points thus far.
Factor #2 Home wins: I award 7 points for every home win because it seems to be more important to defend your house than to play on the road. These points are added to the current total. Since Florida has 4 home wins, that makes 7 X 4, or 28 points more.
Factor #3 Road wins: I give 5 points for every road game, making it important, but not as important to home wins. Florida gets 2 X 5, or 10 more points added to their score.
That makes a total so far of 158 points.
Factor #4 Conference wins: It is critical for any team to win their conference games, and Florida has won 4 conference games thus far. I award 7 points per conference win, so 7 X 4= 28 more points.
Factor #5 Non Conference wins: I don’t award as many points for this because a non conference win may be against anybody, so I give only 3 points per win. Florida gets 2 X 3 or 6 more points for this factor.
Factor #6 Non FCS win: Here, you actually LOSE points for playing a team that does not factor into a serious championship. You lose 2 points for every “cupcake” you schedule. Florida actually loses 2 points for playing Charleston Southern.
So far the total is 192, but minus those 2 points, they have 190 points.
Factor #7 Wins over top 5 teams: After wins with 20 points each, this is the second most important factor, awarding 10 points for every team you beat that was in the top five at that time. Because Florida did beat LSU when they were #4, they get an additional 10 points.
Factor #8 Win over a team 6-10: Normally I award 7 points, but Florida gets no points at this point in time, having beaten no team ranked 6-10 yet.
Factor #9 Win over a team 11-15: Normally I award 5 points, but Florida does not yet qualify.
Factor #10 Win over a team 16-25. Normally I award 3 points, but Florida does not yet qualify.
So far Florida has 200 points.
Factor #11 Win over a team +.500: I give 7 points for every team that is CURRENTLY over .500. At this moment there are 2 teams over .500 that Florida has defeated, so they get 7 X 2, or 14 points
Factor #12 Wins over a .500 team. 3 points for beating average teams, and Florida has beaten 3 such teams. This means 3 X 3 or 9 more points.
Factor #13 Wins over a -.500 team. You actually lose 2 points for every sub par team you beat. Because this only includes Charleston Southern, they lose only 2 points.
So that brings Florida to 223, minus 2 points, for a total of 221 points.
Factor #14 Wins by +16: I award points for domination, and if a team can win by more than two possessions, they get one point for every win. Each win counts once in the factor, so if a team won by 40 points, they are put in a higher factor. At this point, Florida has beaten no team by 16 plus for the 1 point bonus. They have won by larger margins, so they will be slotted for more points.
Factor #15 Wins by +24 points: I award 3 points for every win over 24 points. The win over Kentucky qualifies, since it is over 24 points. So Florida gets +3 for that win.
Factor #16 Wins by +36 points: I award 5 points for every win of more than 36 points. Florida has 2 games where they won by such a margin, so they get 5 X 2,or 10 more points.
This brings them to a total so far of 234 points.
Factor #17 Top 5 passing: If a team is in the top 5 in EITHER yards or touchdowns, they get 5 more points, for as much as 10 additional points. At this point, Florida does not qualify for any points.
Factor #18 top 10 passing: If a team is in the top 10 in EITHER yards or touchdowns, they get 3 points for each, for as much as 6 additional points. At this point, Florida does not qualify for any points.
Factor #19 Top 20 passing team: If a team is in the top 20 in EITHER yards or touchdowns, they get one point for each, for as much as 2 additional points. At this point, Florida does not qualify for any points.
Factor #20 Top 5 rushing team: If a team is in the top 5 in EITHER yards or touchdowns, they get 5 points for each, for as much as 10 additional points. At this point, Florida does not qualify for any points.
Factor #21 Top 10 rushing team: Same as top 10 passing. Florida qualifies for 3 points.
Factor #22 Top 20 rushing team: Same as top 20 passing. Florida qualifies for no points.
So far, the score remains at 234 points, plus the 3 points from factor #21 for a total of 237 points.
Factor #23 Defense gives up under 16 a game: I award 2 points for every game where the defense gives up UNDER 16 points. Each game qualifies either under factor #23 or factor #24. Florida has one game where the defense gave up 13 points, so they get an additional 2 points for that game.
Factor #24 Defense gives up under 8 a game: I award 5 points for every game where the defense gives up UNDER 8 points. Each game qualifies either under factor #23 or factor #24. Florida has four games that qualify, having their defense allow under 8 per game, so they get 4 X 5, or 20 points.
The overall total would give Florida 247 points.
If I ran the same formula for Texas, I would get 238 points.
Alabama would have 297 points, but remember, they have 7 games, whereas Florida and Texas have 6.
So where would a team like Boise State fit right now?
They would have 225 points.
So if I used my formula, my top four would be Alabama, Florida, Texas and Boise State…but that is only based on this week, and the fact that Alabama has played one more game than the others. One game can get you as much as 70+ points in a win, so it’s not that Alabama is so far ahead of everybody else. And with other undefeated teams like Cincinnati and Iowa, and good 1-loss teams like USC, this isn’t etched in stone.
But what it does, at least for me, is use many points which make up a great team, not just opinions based on what we like or dislike. I realize it may be a little complicated, but next time I will share more teams and how they might fit in my new BCS formula. And because it changes weekly, this is not going to stay the same by any means.
Tune in and we’ll look at a few other teams and see where they REALLY fit in.
In an attempt to make a case about who the REAL best teams in college football are, I came up with a formula that awards points to teams based on 24 different categories. In a foolish attempt to try this out, I decided to see how the top teams would fare in my formula, and where they might land after the first week of the BCS scores have come out.
We start first with the number one team, Florida, and will give points based on the following, and add (or subtract) at the end.
Factor #1 Wins: You get 20 points for every win you have, because this is one of the most significant factors in college football…you must WIN your games. Nobody cares for a team with 2 or 3 losses, we want to see undefeated teams in the BCS Championship (in theory). Florida is 6-0, so that is 6 X 20, or 120 points thus far.
Factor #2 Home wins: I award 7 points for every home win because it seems to be more important to defend your house than to play on the road. These points are added to the current total. Since Florida has 4 home wins, that makes 7 X 4, or 28 points more.
Factor #3 Road wins: I give 5 points for every road game, making it important, but not as important to home wins. Florida gets 2 X 5, or 10 more points added to their score.
That makes a total so far of 158 points.
Factor #4 Conference wins: It is critical for any team to win their conference games, and Florida has won 4 conference games thus far. I award 7 points per conference win, so 7 X 4= 28 more points.
Factor #5 Non Conference wins: I don’t award as many points for this because a non conference win may be against anybody, so I give only 3 points per win. Florida gets 2 X 3 or 6 more points for this factor.
Factor #6 Non FCS win: Here, you actually LOSE points for playing a team that does not factor into a serious championship. You lose 2 points for every “cupcake” you schedule. Florida actually loses 2 points for playing Charleston Southern.
So far the total is 192, but minus those 2 points, they have 190 points.
Factor #7 Wins over top 5 teams: After wins with 20 points each, this is the second most important factor, awarding 10 points for every team you beat that was in the top five at that time. Because Florida did beat LSU when they were #4, they get an additional 10 points.
Factor #8 Win over a team 6-10: Normally I award 7 points, but Florida gets no points at this point in time, having beaten no team ranked 6-10 yet.
Factor #9 Win over a team 11-15: Normally I award 5 points, but Florida does not yet qualify.
Factor #10 Win over a team 16-25. Normally I award 3 points, but Florida does not yet qualify.
So far Florida has 200 points.
Factor #11 Win over a team +.500: I give 7 points for every team that is CURRENTLY over .500. At this moment there are 2 teams over .500 that Florida has defeated, so they get 7 X 2, or 14 points
Factor #12 Wins over a .500 team. 3 points for beating average teams, and Florida has beaten 3 such teams. This means 3 X 3 or 9 more points.
Factor #13 Wins over a -.500 team. You actually lose 2 points for every sub par team you beat. Because this only includes Charleston Southern, they lose only 2 points.
So that brings Florida to 223, minus 2 points, for a total of 221 points.
Factor #14 Wins by +16: I award points for domination, and if a team can win by more than two possessions, they get one point for every win. Each win counts once in the factor, so if a team won by 40 points, they are put in a higher factor. At this point, Florida has beaten no team by 16 plus for the 1 point bonus. They have won by larger margins, so they will be slotted for more points.
Factor #15 Wins by +24 points: I award 3 points for every win over 24 points. The win over Kentucky qualifies, since it is over 24 points. So Florida gets +3 for that win.
Factor #16 Wins by +36 points: I award 5 points for every win of more than 36 points. Florida has 2 games where they won by such a margin, so they get 5 X 2,or 10 more points.
This brings them to a total so far of 234 points.
Factor #17 Top 5 passing: If a team is in the top 5 in EITHER yards or touchdowns, they get 5 more points, for as much as 10 additional points. At this point, Florida does not qualify for any points.
Factor #18 top 10 passing: If a team is in the top 10 in EITHER yards or touchdowns, they get 3 points for each, for as much as 6 additional points. At this point, Florida does not qualify for any points.
Factor #19 Top 20 passing team: If a team is in the top 20 in EITHER yards or touchdowns, they get one point for each, for as much as 2 additional points. At this point, Florida does not qualify for any points.
Factor #20 Top 5 rushing team: If a team is in the top 5 in EITHER yards or touchdowns, they get 5 points for each, for as much as 10 additional points. At this point, Florida does not qualify for any points.
Factor #21 Top 10 rushing team: Same as top 10 passing. Florida qualifies for 3 points.
Factor #22 Top 20 rushing team: Same as top 20 passing. Florida qualifies for no points.
So far, the score remains at 234 points, plus the 3 points from factor #21 for a total of 237 points.
Factor #23 Defense gives up under 16 a game: I award 2 points for every game where the defense gives up UNDER 16 points. Each game qualifies either under factor #23 or factor #24. Florida has one game where the defense gave up 13 points, so they get an additional 2 points for that game.
Factor #24 Defense gives up under 8 a game: I award 5 points for every game where the defense gives up UNDER 8 points. Each game qualifies either under factor #23 or factor #24. Florida has four games that qualify, having their defense allow under 8 per game, so they get 4 X 5, or 20 points.
The overall total would give Florida 247 points.
If I ran the same formula for Texas, I would get 238 points.
Alabama would have 297 points, but remember, they have 7 games, whereas Florida and Texas have 6.
So where would a team like Boise State fit right now?
They would have 225 points.
So if I used my formula, my top four would be Alabama, Florida, Texas and Boise State…but that is only based on this week, and the fact that Alabama has played one more game than the others. One game can get you as much as 70+ points in a win, so it’s not that Alabama is so far ahead of everybody else. And with other undefeated teams like Cincinnati and Iowa, and good 1-loss teams like USC, this isn’t etched in stone.
But what it does, at least for me, is use many points which make up a great team, not just opinions based on what we like or dislike. I realize it may be a little complicated, but next time I will share more teams and how they might fit in my new BCS formula. And because it changes weekly, this is not going to stay the same by any means.
Tune in and we’ll look at a few other teams and see where they REALLY fit in.
Top 10 NFL teams, week 7
NFL Top 10 teams, week 7
So after 6 games for most of the NFL teams, much has been learned. We have now 4 undefeated teams, two with one loss, and nine with 2 losses. My math tells me that makes 15 teams, meaning I have to trim the fat with 5 teams in order to make my top 10 list.
That meant I had to drop 5 teams with 2 losses, and right off the bat I got rid of the NFC West teams, Arizona and San Francisco. To me, this is a very weak division, and any team with 2 losses out of there is not worth of a top 10 ranking. Yeah, I know the Cardinals got to the Superbowl last year, but a lot of that was built off this weak division.
So without further delay, let’s crank up the NFL top 10 teams, starting with one that missed the cut:
Dallas Cowboys: At 3-2, they are certainly in the mix, but nobody is predicting them to right the ship and have the successful season they thought they would have. It would seem that Emmitt Smith was correct in saying that this team may not win more than 7 games. It seems that “America’s Team” is on pace for that, although mathematically they are on pace for 9 wins….not sure if they can get that though.
#10 Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2): The defending Superbowl champs was not on my list last week, and barely makes it this week because they do have a winning record, and I felt they were better than 5 other 2-loss teams. You still have to give this team a chance, and with four wins they still have a little work to do. Beating the Browns does not make for so much of an argument, but they are one of 3 teams at this moment with a 4-2 record.
#9 Chicago Bears (3-2): Last week this team was #8 on my list, and I didn’t drop them far because they lost to the Atlanta Falcons, which is a pretty decent team. I am not fully convinced that this team can make the playoffs, but we will learn much when they play the Vikings. Between the Bears, Vikings and Packers, this could get interesting as a few losses may be traded around.
#8 Cincinnati Bengals (4-2):Well, back down a bit to reality, with a loss to Houston. Yeah, they fell hard from the second best team in the NFL to the 8th, but that still gets them in the playoffs in my book. The Bengals rode that high of winning for awhile, and I think they are not through yet. But losing to a team they should have beaten, if they are who we think they are, can make a cross check on whether this team is indeed an elite team, or a good team.
#7 New England Patriots (4-2): Are we seeing the beginning signs of a team that is about to go in a southern direction? Is the world coming to an end with the Pats losing two games already? Well, the dismemberment they put on Tennessee in the snow shows that this team is not done yet, and is still strongly in the hunt for the AFC Champs. The Patriots are still a heavy favorite, but after losing many key members, the armor is starting to crack…perhaps one reason they went back to get Junior Seau, who is quite ancient in football terms. Still, this is still an elite AFC squad, whether they have 2 losses or none. It just so happens they have two now… and I am sure it won’t be the last loss this year either.
#6 Atlanta Falcons (4-1): There is much to be said for this team, and with only one loss, to the aforementioned Patriots, this is indeed a quality team. And consider they just beat the Bears, so they are surely a good squad. But the Bears was the first quality opponent they have beaten, so they are as good as their record. But when they meet the Saints…and they will, we will learn how good this 4-1 record is. In fact, they have to play twice, so this will be two very tough games between two teams that seem poised to make a strong run in the NFC.
#5 New York Giants (5-1): To me, this is, right now, the best one loss team in the NFL…but that’s not saying much since there are only 2 teams with one loss. The Giants lost to the Saints bad, which was in fact the first REAL team they played this year. I do think that the Giants are more experienced than the Falcons, but the big loss they suffered made them quite touchable. With division games against the Eagles, Cowboys and Redskins, it is now a question if this team really is as good as we think. Time will tell.
#4 Indianapolis Colts (5-0): For me to put them here says that right now, I think the Colts are the weakest undefeated team in the NFL. I gotta tell you, beating the Jags, Dolphins, Cardinals, Seahawks and Titans cannot make you the best team. Of all those teams, only the Cardinals has a legit shot of even making the top 10. Who, if anybody, can challenge the Colts? Or maybe the other question is, how good are the Colts since they have not played anybody yet? Didn’t we think the same of the Giants until they met with a real team? For me to have them here means I think the Colts could be in the AFC Championship game, but I am not totally sold on it just yet….need to see them win against quality opponents.
#3 Minnesota Vikings (6-0): Well, well, where are all those Brett Farve nay-sayers now? I know it is still early, but I am sure right now the Packers are wondering why they let Farve walk away. Now last week’s game was too close, showing me that the Viking defense can be suspect, and I am not sure if they can continue to win games like that. But with a very experienced quarterback, and a great running back, they are as good as any team in the NFL. Yet right now I think they are the third best team, meaning I could not put them in the Superbowl, because I think there is a better NFC team out there…
#2 New Orleans Saints (5-0): I had the Saints as the third best team in the NFL, but the best NFC team, that has not changed. Beating the Giants the way they did clearly proves that this is a very good team, and seems to be on a mission to bring the Superbowl Trophy to New Orleans…the place of my birth. Of all the teams, I think the Saints have, so far, the toughest schedule, and has sliced through it all. They have yet to play the Falcons, so we will see them face each other twice, and they also play the Patriots this year. Can they continue to go undefeated? Who can say, with such a high maintenance offense? If they stay healthy, I see them winning at least 12 games, maybe more.
#1 Denver Broncos (6-0): With the win over the Chargers, this puts the Broncos miles ahead of everybody else in their division…but who are we kidding? Between the Raiders, Chiefs and now the confusing Chargers, the Broncos may have already locked in their bid to the playoffs. But this team has overachieved like few could believe. Beating the Patriots and Cowboys are indeed quality wins, and the Chargers were average as well. It seems to show that sometimes when an organization flips as much as they have, it is hard to prepare for them. This is a new animal that the rest of the NFL has to solve, and until they do, the Broncos will keep winning…I mean come on, you see them losing to the Chiefs or Raiders? They are almost assured of 3 more wins. But with games ahead vs. the Ravens, Steelers, Giants, Colts, Eagles and a second game vs. the Chargers, this could get interesting.
So there you have it, my 10 best teams in the NFL. That would imply that I think the Broncos will play the Saints in the Superbowl…not necessarily. Let us not forget that the Titans had a perfect record for 13 weeks, and then the bottom fell out. Four undefeated teams remain, and I see none of them going perfect… the 1972 Dolphins might as well crack that champagne now. But there is much parity in the NFL, so any team has a shot…well, other than those that are winless now.
Until next week…
So after 6 games for most of the NFL teams, much has been learned. We have now 4 undefeated teams, two with one loss, and nine with 2 losses. My math tells me that makes 15 teams, meaning I have to trim the fat with 5 teams in order to make my top 10 list.
That meant I had to drop 5 teams with 2 losses, and right off the bat I got rid of the NFC West teams, Arizona and San Francisco. To me, this is a very weak division, and any team with 2 losses out of there is not worth of a top 10 ranking. Yeah, I know the Cardinals got to the Superbowl last year, but a lot of that was built off this weak division.
So without further delay, let’s crank up the NFL top 10 teams, starting with one that missed the cut:
Dallas Cowboys: At 3-2, they are certainly in the mix, but nobody is predicting them to right the ship and have the successful season they thought they would have. It would seem that Emmitt Smith was correct in saying that this team may not win more than 7 games. It seems that “America’s Team” is on pace for that, although mathematically they are on pace for 9 wins….not sure if they can get that though.
#10 Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2): The defending Superbowl champs was not on my list last week, and barely makes it this week because they do have a winning record, and I felt they were better than 5 other 2-loss teams. You still have to give this team a chance, and with four wins they still have a little work to do. Beating the Browns does not make for so much of an argument, but they are one of 3 teams at this moment with a 4-2 record.
#9 Chicago Bears (3-2): Last week this team was #8 on my list, and I didn’t drop them far because they lost to the Atlanta Falcons, which is a pretty decent team. I am not fully convinced that this team can make the playoffs, but we will learn much when they play the Vikings. Between the Bears, Vikings and Packers, this could get interesting as a few losses may be traded around.
#8 Cincinnati Bengals (4-2):Well, back down a bit to reality, with a loss to Houston. Yeah, they fell hard from the second best team in the NFL to the 8th, but that still gets them in the playoffs in my book. The Bengals rode that high of winning for awhile, and I think they are not through yet. But losing to a team they should have beaten, if they are who we think they are, can make a cross check on whether this team is indeed an elite team, or a good team.
#7 New England Patriots (4-2): Are we seeing the beginning signs of a team that is about to go in a southern direction? Is the world coming to an end with the Pats losing two games already? Well, the dismemberment they put on Tennessee in the snow shows that this team is not done yet, and is still strongly in the hunt for the AFC Champs. The Patriots are still a heavy favorite, but after losing many key members, the armor is starting to crack…perhaps one reason they went back to get Junior Seau, who is quite ancient in football terms. Still, this is still an elite AFC squad, whether they have 2 losses or none. It just so happens they have two now… and I am sure it won’t be the last loss this year either.
#6 Atlanta Falcons (4-1): There is much to be said for this team, and with only one loss, to the aforementioned Patriots, this is indeed a quality team. And consider they just beat the Bears, so they are surely a good squad. But the Bears was the first quality opponent they have beaten, so they are as good as their record. But when they meet the Saints…and they will, we will learn how good this 4-1 record is. In fact, they have to play twice, so this will be two very tough games between two teams that seem poised to make a strong run in the NFC.
#5 New York Giants (5-1): To me, this is, right now, the best one loss team in the NFL…but that’s not saying much since there are only 2 teams with one loss. The Giants lost to the Saints bad, which was in fact the first REAL team they played this year. I do think that the Giants are more experienced than the Falcons, but the big loss they suffered made them quite touchable. With division games against the Eagles, Cowboys and Redskins, it is now a question if this team really is as good as we think. Time will tell.
#4 Indianapolis Colts (5-0): For me to put them here says that right now, I think the Colts are the weakest undefeated team in the NFL. I gotta tell you, beating the Jags, Dolphins, Cardinals, Seahawks and Titans cannot make you the best team. Of all those teams, only the Cardinals has a legit shot of even making the top 10. Who, if anybody, can challenge the Colts? Or maybe the other question is, how good are the Colts since they have not played anybody yet? Didn’t we think the same of the Giants until they met with a real team? For me to have them here means I think the Colts could be in the AFC Championship game, but I am not totally sold on it just yet….need to see them win against quality opponents.
#3 Minnesota Vikings (6-0): Well, well, where are all those Brett Farve nay-sayers now? I know it is still early, but I am sure right now the Packers are wondering why they let Farve walk away. Now last week’s game was too close, showing me that the Viking defense can be suspect, and I am not sure if they can continue to win games like that. But with a very experienced quarterback, and a great running back, they are as good as any team in the NFL. Yet right now I think they are the third best team, meaning I could not put them in the Superbowl, because I think there is a better NFC team out there…
#2 New Orleans Saints (5-0): I had the Saints as the third best team in the NFL, but the best NFC team, that has not changed. Beating the Giants the way they did clearly proves that this is a very good team, and seems to be on a mission to bring the Superbowl Trophy to New Orleans…the place of my birth. Of all the teams, I think the Saints have, so far, the toughest schedule, and has sliced through it all. They have yet to play the Falcons, so we will see them face each other twice, and they also play the Patriots this year. Can they continue to go undefeated? Who can say, with such a high maintenance offense? If they stay healthy, I see them winning at least 12 games, maybe more.
#1 Denver Broncos (6-0): With the win over the Chargers, this puts the Broncos miles ahead of everybody else in their division…but who are we kidding? Between the Raiders, Chiefs and now the confusing Chargers, the Broncos may have already locked in their bid to the playoffs. But this team has overachieved like few could believe. Beating the Patriots and Cowboys are indeed quality wins, and the Chargers were average as well. It seems to show that sometimes when an organization flips as much as they have, it is hard to prepare for them. This is a new animal that the rest of the NFL has to solve, and until they do, the Broncos will keep winning…I mean come on, you see them losing to the Chiefs or Raiders? They are almost assured of 3 more wins. But with games ahead vs. the Ravens, Steelers, Giants, Colts, Eagles and a second game vs. the Chargers, this could get interesting.
So there you have it, my 10 best teams in the NFL. That would imply that I think the Broncos will play the Saints in the Superbowl…not necessarily. Let us not forget that the Titans had a perfect record for 13 weeks, and then the bottom fell out. Four undefeated teams remain, and I see none of them going perfect… the 1972 Dolphins might as well crack that champagne now. But there is much parity in the NFL, so any team has a shot…well, other than those that are winless now.
Until next week…
Friday, October 16, 2009
Is being undefeated enough for BCS?
Is being Undefeated enough?
You know, I was watching one of my favorite shows, “Around the Horn”, and there was a discussion with the panel about whether Boise State should be in the BCS Championship if they go undefeated. This on the heels of them barely beating Tulsa a couple of nights ago.
The discussion split the panel, in where two of the guys felt that it should not guarantee them into the BCS, and the other two felt that it should because if a team goes undefeated, they ought to be considered for a National Championship.
Pardon me, but I think the latter half of that is garbage.
The two columnists who think that can’t possibly be using logic. But it brings in the idea that simply winning all your games is enough to validate being one of the best teams in the nation.
Remind me how many games Ball State won last year…didn’t they go 12-0? They won every game in front of them, but let’s be brutally honest, do YOU really think they were a top 3, or top 5, or even top 10 team? Absolutely not.
Columnists Jackie Macmullen and Woody Paige (spelling may need checking), seem to agree that if Boise State goes undefeated, then they ought to have a shot at the BCS Championship. I could not disagree more.
This places a false sense of credibility ONLY on wins. For many people, the idea that wins is the ONLY factor is a major mistake, one that only the foolish would look at. The BCS National Championship is set aside for the BEST two teams in the nation… not the best looking records.
Woody and Jackie need to really study up on that.
You can have a pretty record and still not be in the top 10. Again, I bring to you Ball State, who beat everybody in their way last year, but because they came out of the Mid American Conference, few gave them real credit. In fact the realization of the truth actually had a very damaging effect on this team.
They found out that just because you have a perfect record does NOT guarantee you any conversation with the best in college football. In fact, once they realized the truth, it destroyed their faith in making a BCS, because they ended up not only losing in the conference championship game, not only in their post season bowl, not only their first game this year to a North Texas that was 1-11 this year…
They are currently 0-6.
It is a sad story about how crushing reality is when a team sees that perfection by records does not equate to greatness. To be sure, their record is indeed great, I give them all the credit in the world for finishing perfect in the regular season, but the rest of the nation will not do as much.
Such is the same for Boise State.
What has been proven is that being undefeated is not the only proof of greatness when it comes to a National Championship. Jackie and Woody seem to be totally ignorant on the fact that Boise State does not play a CHAMPIONSHIP level of competition. Because they don’t there is no way you can consider them for a BCS Championship simply based on the record.
Let me give you an example, and see if you agree:
Since Notre Dame is an Independent team, with no affiliations with any conference, they could set up their schedule thusly, with the team and last year’s record:
Army (3-9)
New Mexico State (2-9)
Idaho (2-10)
North Texas (1-11)
Mississippi State (4-8)
Washington State (2-11)
San Diego State (2-11)
Toledo (3-9)
Tulane (2-10)
Syracuse (3-9)
Iowa State (2-10)
Duke (4-8)
Now, what if Notre Dame beats all these teams and goes 12-0?
Would that make them one of the two best teams in the nation? After all, 5 of those wins would be from BCS Conferences, right? They would have beaten a team from every BCS conference except the Big 10.
I challenge you to believe that if a team played that type of schedule, and won every game, that they could possibly be considered a valid BCS contender. This is an argument that takes no account into the strength of schedule. Just winning your games is not enough to say that a perfect team deserves a BCS Title shot. There has to be credible wins to prove that you are indeed one of the best, not just because your record is nice and shiny, but that you BEAT quality opponents.
It’s like boxing, where lots of times you see guys with nice records like 15-0, with 14 knockouts, and you wonder why you never heard of them before. It’s because lots of times boxers like to build up a pretty record to get attention, but when it is time to prove it in the ring, often times they show that the record was based on soft competition.
Boise State does play a decent schedule, but don’t tell me that their perfect record is better than TCU, who has to play multiple ranked teams in a tougher conference than Boise State. Don’t tell me that the Broncos perfect record is better than Cincinnati, who comes out of a BCS conference, and beating multiple ranked teams.
It’s not enough to just win folks, you have to schedule the tough opponents so that your wins are credible. I believe that IF 8 out of the top 10 teams lose another game, and if Boise State continues to win, then they should get strong consideration for a BCS, but even then it’s not a lock. Do I believe they would be better than a Florida with one loss, or Alabama, or Texas (if they all lose during the season)?
Not at all.
Boise State is still in the mix, let’s not forget that, but as it stands now, their perfect record does not have a lot of strong competition, other than Oregon. That is a great win for the school, no doubt…but one good win does not make you great. And although they did beat Oklahoma…how long ago was that?
If you wanted to show that you were a true power, why didn’t they try to schedule Oklahoma during the regular season…I am sure the Sooners would have loved to have some “get back”. Or how about TCU, since they lost to them last year? There clearly have been opportunities for Boise State to step up and schedule tougher foes, but they have not. Until they do, they cannot be considered an “A” list team until they start beating them more regularly. Not once a year…but a few times a year.
So Boise State might go undefeated, and people will try to pull for the underdog…but remember why they are considered an underdog…it’s because they have not yet proven to be a BIG dog.
You know, I was watching one of my favorite shows, “Around the Horn”, and there was a discussion with the panel about whether Boise State should be in the BCS Championship if they go undefeated. This on the heels of them barely beating Tulsa a couple of nights ago.
The discussion split the panel, in where two of the guys felt that it should not guarantee them into the BCS, and the other two felt that it should because if a team goes undefeated, they ought to be considered for a National Championship.
Pardon me, but I think the latter half of that is garbage.
The two columnists who think that can’t possibly be using logic. But it brings in the idea that simply winning all your games is enough to validate being one of the best teams in the nation.
Remind me how many games Ball State won last year…didn’t they go 12-0? They won every game in front of them, but let’s be brutally honest, do YOU really think they were a top 3, or top 5, or even top 10 team? Absolutely not.
Columnists Jackie Macmullen and Woody Paige (spelling may need checking), seem to agree that if Boise State goes undefeated, then they ought to have a shot at the BCS Championship. I could not disagree more.
This places a false sense of credibility ONLY on wins. For many people, the idea that wins is the ONLY factor is a major mistake, one that only the foolish would look at. The BCS National Championship is set aside for the BEST two teams in the nation… not the best looking records.
Woody and Jackie need to really study up on that.
You can have a pretty record and still not be in the top 10. Again, I bring to you Ball State, who beat everybody in their way last year, but because they came out of the Mid American Conference, few gave them real credit. In fact the realization of the truth actually had a very damaging effect on this team.
They found out that just because you have a perfect record does NOT guarantee you any conversation with the best in college football. In fact, once they realized the truth, it destroyed their faith in making a BCS, because they ended up not only losing in the conference championship game, not only in their post season bowl, not only their first game this year to a North Texas that was 1-11 this year…
They are currently 0-6.
It is a sad story about how crushing reality is when a team sees that perfection by records does not equate to greatness. To be sure, their record is indeed great, I give them all the credit in the world for finishing perfect in the regular season, but the rest of the nation will not do as much.
Such is the same for Boise State.
What has been proven is that being undefeated is not the only proof of greatness when it comes to a National Championship. Jackie and Woody seem to be totally ignorant on the fact that Boise State does not play a CHAMPIONSHIP level of competition. Because they don’t there is no way you can consider them for a BCS Championship simply based on the record.
Let me give you an example, and see if you agree:
Since Notre Dame is an Independent team, with no affiliations with any conference, they could set up their schedule thusly, with the team and last year’s record:
Army (3-9)
New Mexico State (2-9)
Idaho (2-10)
North Texas (1-11)
Mississippi State (4-8)
Washington State (2-11)
San Diego State (2-11)
Toledo (3-9)
Tulane (2-10)
Syracuse (3-9)
Iowa State (2-10)
Duke (4-8)
Now, what if Notre Dame beats all these teams and goes 12-0?
Would that make them one of the two best teams in the nation? After all, 5 of those wins would be from BCS Conferences, right? They would have beaten a team from every BCS conference except the Big 10.
I challenge you to believe that if a team played that type of schedule, and won every game, that they could possibly be considered a valid BCS contender. This is an argument that takes no account into the strength of schedule. Just winning your games is not enough to say that a perfect team deserves a BCS Title shot. There has to be credible wins to prove that you are indeed one of the best, not just because your record is nice and shiny, but that you BEAT quality opponents.
It’s like boxing, where lots of times you see guys with nice records like 15-0, with 14 knockouts, and you wonder why you never heard of them before. It’s because lots of times boxers like to build up a pretty record to get attention, but when it is time to prove it in the ring, often times they show that the record was based on soft competition.
Boise State does play a decent schedule, but don’t tell me that their perfect record is better than TCU, who has to play multiple ranked teams in a tougher conference than Boise State. Don’t tell me that the Broncos perfect record is better than Cincinnati, who comes out of a BCS conference, and beating multiple ranked teams.
It’s not enough to just win folks, you have to schedule the tough opponents so that your wins are credible. I believe that IF 8 out of the top 10 teams lose another game, and if Boise State continues to win, then they should get strong consideration for a BCS, but even then it’s not a lock. Do I believe they would be better than a Florida with one loss, or Alabama, or Texas (if they all lose during the season)?
Not at all.
Boise State is still in the mix, let’s not forget that, but as it stands now, their perfect record does not have a lot of strong competition, other than Oregon. That is a great win for the school, no doubt…but one good win does not make you great. And although they did beat Oklahoma…how long ago was that?
If you wanted to show that you were a true power, why didn’t they try to schedule Oklahoma during the regular season…I am sure the Sooners would have loved to have some “get back”. Or how about TCU, since they lost to them last year? There clearly have been opportunities for Boise State to step up and schedule tougher foes, but they have not. Until they do, they cannot be considered an “A” list team until they start beating them more regularly. Not once a year…but a few times a year.
So Boise State might go undefeated, and people will try to pull for the underdog…but remember why they are considered an underdog…it’s because they have not yet proven to be a BIG dog.
Cincinnati in the BCS?
Cincinnati in the BCS?
I didn’t get a chance to blog before the Cincinnati/South Florida game, I wanted to but some things came up. But last night the Bearcats doubled up South Florida 34-17, although it may have cost them their NFL prospect quarterback. (well wishes Pike, get well soon).
But now with them winning, we have an interesting question. ESPN talked about this last night, and the question now is; can Cincinnati qualify and get a BCS Title game?
Actually I think the question is wrong, because that is not the real issue. I mean, right now there are still over 20 teams that have a shot at the title, maybe more. The question is just too vague, because anything can happen from week to week. Although not too likely, it is not out of the realm of possibility that Florida, Alabama, Texas, Boise State, USC, Penn State and Iowa can lose two games.
I didn’t say likely, I said possibly.
I mean, with 6-7 games left for most of these teams, even DUKE has a shot…ugh.
So the question of whether Cincinnati can qualify is a foolish one, because the answer is ABSOLUTELY.
We have to refine that question to something more logical. How about this; what are the chances of Cincinnati becoming one of the two best teams in the nation by the end of the year?
See, if they are one of the two best, then we know they should be considered for a National Championship. So let’s explore this on a few issues: first, the Big East Conference, second, Cincinnati’s schedule, and third, whether they could be considered better than other undefeated teams, or one loss teams.
First, we have to address the Big East. The last couple of years they have been in the dumps, considered by many as a worthless conference (but don’t say that in basketball). I personally felt the Mountain West, with Utah, BYU and TCU was a better football conference than the Big East.
But this is a quality conference, yet the voters showed no respect to any team in the Big East at the beginning of the year. Not one team was in the top 25 at the beginning of the year. I wondered about this because Cincinnati won 11 games last year. How can you deny a team with 11 wins on the top 25, when you got teams like Notre Dame that clearly underachieved, but still made the top 25?
Go figure.
The second argument is Cincinnati themselves. Yes they went 11-3 last year, but those three losses were to Oklahoma, Virginia Tech and Connecticut. The first two I can understand, but the jury is still out on UCONN.
But sweeping the other foes has to count for something. Right now Cincinnati is ranked #8 and is 6-0. If any upsets happen over the weekend, they can easily slide into the top 5. To this date they have only beaten one ranked foe, but they beat Fresno State, who Boise State also beat, and they also beat a Pac-10 foe in Oregon State. These are quality wins, if you put them side by side with a team like Boise State.
And with games against West Virginia and Pittsburgh, this could be some valid games to add on. It is quite possible for the Bearcats to run the table…if healthy.
But the main argument here is whether this team is better than any other undefeated team, or any 1 loss teams out there. Do I believe the Bearcats are better than Florida? No. Do I believe they are better than Texas? No. Do I believe they are better than Alabama…not really.
That alone means they are not, at this point, worthy of a BCS Championship shot, even if they go undefeated. Now, I think that they MIGHT be better than Boise State, and in fact if both go undefeated, the Bearcats will get the greater nod than the Broncos.
So what about 1 loss teams? Is Cincinnati better than Virginia Tech…well, they lost to them last year, didn’t they? Do I think they are better than USC…nope. Do I think they are better than Ohio State…no. Do I think they are better than Miami…hmm, interesting.
But this still keeps them out of the top 5 because right now, they are just not THAT team, no more than Boise State, and right now Boise State rests on the win over Oregon, which if I am correct was ranked #20 when they played. Cincinnati beat South Florida last night, who was ranked #21...so by the slimmest of margins, right now, Boise State is better.
So right now, we can’t say that Cincinnati is good enough to contend for the BCS, they would have to slide into it by fault of other teams. If they are the only undefeated team in the nation by the end of the season, it would immediately eliminate Boise State. If everybody in the top 10 lost one more except Cincinnati, it would eliminate USC, Ohio State, Boise State, Virginia Tech, Miami and LSU.
That would leave 4 teams to fight for it…Florida, Alabama, Texas and Cincinnati. So ask yourself this, if Florida, Alabama and Texas each had one loss, and Cincinnati had none, would you consider Cincinnati for a BCS title?
Would a perfect Bearcats team REALLY be better than the Gators, Crimson Tide or Longhorns?
I didn’t get a chance to blog before the Cincinnati/South Florida game, I wanted to but some things came up. But last night the Bearcats doubled up South Florida 34-17, although it may have cost them their NFL prospect quarterback. (well wishes Pike, get well soon).
But now with them winning, we have an interesting question. ESPN talked about this last night, and the question now is; can Cincinnati qualify and get a BCS Title game?
Actually I think the question is wrong, because that is not the real issue. I mean, right now there are still over 20 teams that have a shot at the title, maybe more. The question is just too vague, because anything can happen from week to week. Although not too likely, it is not out of the realm of possibility that Florida, Alabama, Texas, Boise State, USC, Penn State and Iowa can lose two games.
I didn’t say likely, I said possibly.
I mean, with 6-7 games left for most of these teams, even DUKE has a shot…ugh.
So the question of whether Cincinnati can qualify is a foolish one, because the answer is ABSOLUTELY.
We have to refine that question to something more logical. How about this; what are the chances of Cincinnati becoming one of the two best teams in the nation by the end of the year?
See, if they are one of the two best, then we know they should be considered for a National Championship. So let’s explore this on a few issues: first, the Big East Conference, second, Cincinnati’s schedule, and third, whether they could be considered better than other undefeated teams, or one loss teams.
First, we have to address the Big East. The last couple of years they have been in the dumps, considered by many as a worthless conference (but don’t say that in basketball). I personally felt the Mountain West, with Utah, BYU and TCU was a better football conference than the Big East.
But this is a quality conference, yet the voters showed no respect to any team in the Big East at the beginning of the year. Not one team was in the top 25 at the beginning of the year. I wondered about this because Cincinnati won 11 games last year. How can you deny a team with 11 wins on the top 25, when you got teams like Notre Dame that clearly underachieved, but still made the top 25?
Go figure.
The second argument is Cincinnati themselves. Yes they went 11-3 last year, but those three losses were to Oklahoma, Virginia Tech and Connecticut. The first two I can understand, but the jury is still out on UCONN.
But sweeping the other foes has to count for something. Right now Cincinnati is ranked #8 and is 6-0. If any upsets happen over the weekend, they can easily slide into the top 5. To this date they have only beaten one ranked foe, but they beat Fresno State, who Boise State also beat, and they also beat a Pac-10 foe in Oregon State. These are quality wins, if you put them side by side with a team like Boise State.
And with games against West Virginia and Pittsburgh, this could be some valid games to add on. It is quite possible for the Bearcats to run the table…if healthy.
But the main argument here is whether this team is better than any other undefeated team, or any 1 loss teams out there. Do I believe the Bearcats are better than Florida? No. Do I believe they are better than Texas? No. Do I believe they are better than Alabama…not really.
That alone means they are not, at this point, worthy of a BCS Championship shot, even if they go undefeated. Now, I think that they MIGHT be better than Boise State, and in fact if both go undefeated, the Bearcats will get the greater nod than the Broncos.
So what about 1 loss teams? Is Cincinnati better than Virginia Tech…well, they lost to them last year, didn’t they? Do I think they are better than USC…nope. Do I think they are better than Ohio State…no. Do I think they are better than Miami…hmm, interesting.
But this still keeps them out of the top 5 because right now, they are just not THAT team, no more than Boise State, and right now Boise State rests on the win over Oregon, which if I am correct was ranked #20 when they played. Cincinnati beat South Florida last night, who was ranked #21...so by the slimmest of margins, right now, Boise State is better.
So right now, we can’t say that Cincinnati is good enough to contend for the BCS, they would have to slide into it by fault of other teams. If they are the only undefeated team in the nation by the end of the season, it would immediately eliminate Boise State. If everybody in the top 10 lost one more except Cincinnati, it would eliminate USC, Ohio State, Boise State, Virginia Tech, Miami and LSU.
That would leave 4 teams to fight for it…Florida, Alabama, Texas and Cincinnati. So ask yourself this, if Florida, Alabama and Texas each had one loss, and Cincinnati had none, would you consider Cincinnati for a BCS title?
Would a perfect Bearcats team REALLY be better than the Gators, Crimson Tide or Longhorns?
Thursday, October 15, 2009
NFL Top 10, after 5 (2009)
NFL Top 10, after 5
Had to do some changes here because of some great NFL games over the weekend.
I will jump right into this, since I took sometime to look at these teams. To make the top 10, I had to look at the 5 undefeated teams, the 4 teams with one loss, and also I had to look at 9 teams with 2 losses. Anywhere from 5-0 to 2-2 could have made my top 10 list. But after much debate and a few cups of coffee…and a DELICIOUS honey bun, here are my top 10 teams…
But wait! Before I begin, let me share with you one team that didn’t make the cut:
Philadelphia Eagles: Technically speaking, as a 3-1 team they should have been on the top 10, but I can’t put them there yet. They are just outside, looking in. Yes, the record is nice, but beating the Panthers, Chiefs and Buccaneers does not show a power in the NFC. Losing to the Saints is nothing to be ashamed of, but one wonders if this team is really healthy.
Now, let’s countdown the top 10:
#10 Baltimore Ravens: Oh what could have been if they had beaten the Patriots awhile back. At 3-2, I still think this is a very strong team, with a key win over the Chargers. Their losses come to the Patriots and the Bengals, both of which they were in. A few calls here or there and these same Ravens could be 4-1, maybe even 5-0, but there is much more games to play for these guys.
#9 New England Patriots: Is the king dead? Two losses in one year with Tom Brady? I still have this team in the top ten because they beat both the Ravens and the Falcons, two good squads. Losing to the Broncos may be the changing of the guard, but nobody has really man-handled the Pats yet. Still many more games to go, and experience is on their side.
#8 Chicago Bears: I rank this 3-1 team pretty low because their wins over the Steelers may SOUND good, but Pittsburgh seems to be struggling. Also, beating the Seahawks and Lions does not make front line news. Losing to the so-and-so Packers isn’t that great either. Beat the Vikings and then we are talking….
#7 Atlanta Falcons: I put the Falcons ahead of the Bears, even though both are 3-1 for a couple of reasons. Their loss to the Patriots is more credible than the Bear’s loss. And the Falcons beat the 49ers, a decent team, and the Dolphins, who are not so bad as some think. They have yet to play the Saints, and must see them twice. We will know much more about the Falcons then.
#6 Indianapolis Colts: Yeah, I know they are 5-0 and everybody is talking about how great Manning is, and I agree…but have you seen their opponents? The Colts beat the Jaguars, the Dolphins, the Cardinals, Seahawks and Titans…how many of these teams have a winning record? At this point, NONE. We have not seen the Colts truly tested, and until we do, I can’t put them any higher unless other circumstances change. A good team, yes, and by my list the THIRD best team in the AFC.
#5 New York Giants: Yes, another 5-0 team ranked lower than many thought. Last week I had them #1, but when you look at the body of work, and with Manning slightly injured, this could be a problem. Their wins are over the very troubled Redskins, the confusing Cowboys, the hapless Buccaneers, the lowly Chiefs and the “what the heck” Raiders…hardly a strong case for to be the best team in the NFL.
#4 Minnesota Vikings: Last week I had them #6, but the last three weeks they have beaten teams that are at least .500. This includes the Cardinals, Packers and 49ers. Minnesota is playing a tougher competition (though not by too much) than the Giants and the Colts. We know this will play itself out, but right now, I think Brett Farve and AP are worth the top 4 ranking.
#3 New Orleans Saints. I dropped the Saints one spot from last week simply because they are 4-0, not 5-0 like other teams. But I also dropped them one spot becaue their wins over the Lions and Bills don’t seem like so much, and the Eagles are not on my top 10 list. So their only big win was over the Jets, but they didn’t make my list this week either. Still I have them, as of now, as the best NFC team…Superbowl bound?
#2 Cincinnati Bengals: This 3-1 team is playing better than most 4-0 or 5-0 teams, and the wins prove it. I vault them up from #9 to number 2 because their body of work is impressive. They beat the Packers, who are at .500, they beat the defending Superbowl champs in the Steelers, they beat their rival the Browns (ok, not the hardest thing to do) and they beat the Ravens, who I have as #10 on my list. Their only loss comes to the….
#1 Denver Broncos: At 5-0, who would have thought that? I had the Broncos at #3 last week, even then believing they were the best AFC team, now they may well be the best team period. They beat the Bengals and the Patriots, two very quality wins. And let’s face it folks, with the Raiders and the Chiefs in the division, they seemed to be assured of at least 4 more wins. But the Chargers could make it interesting. Still, right now, who can deny the Broncos?
So that’s my list right now, always subject to change as the weeks go on. Now let’s have some fun this weekend with more football!!!!
Had to do some changes here because of some great NFL games over the weekend.
I will jump right into this, since I took sometime to look at these teams. To make the top 10, I had to look at the 5 undefeated teams, the 4 teams with one loss, and also I had to look at 9 teams with 2 losses. Anywhere from 5-0 to 2-2 could have made my top 10 list. But after much debate and a few cups of coffee…and a DELICIOUS honey bun, here are my top 10 teams…
But wait! Before I begin, let me share with you one team that didn’t make the cut:
Philadelphia Eagles: Technically speaking, as a 3-1 team they should have been on the top 10, but I can’t put them there yet. They are just outside, looking in. Yes, the record is nice, but beating the Panthers, Chiefs and Buccaneers does not show a power in the NFC. Losing to the Saints is nothing to be ashamed of, but one wonders if this team is really healthy.
Now, let’s countdown the top 10:
#10 Baltimore Ravens: Oh what could have been if they had beaten the Patriots awhile back. At 3-2, I still think this is a very strong team, with a key win over the Chargers. Their losses come to the Patriots and the Bengals, both of which they were in. A few calls here or there and these same Ravens could be 4-1, maybe even 5-0, but there is much more games to play for these guys.
#9 New England Patriots: Is the king dead? Two losses in one year with Tom Brady? I still have this team in the top ten because they beat both the Ravens and the Falcons, two good squads. Losing to the Broncos may be the changing of the guard, but nobody has really man-handled the Pats yet. Still many more games to go, and experience is on their side.
#8 Chicago Bears: I rank this 3-1 team pretty low because their wins over the Steelers may SOUND good, but Pittsburgh seems to be struggling. Also, beating the Seahawks and Lions does not make front line news. Losing to the so-and-so Packers isn’t that great either. Beat the Vikings and then we are talking….
#7 Atlanta Falcons: I put the Falcons ahead of the Bears, even though both are 3-1 for a couple of reasons. Their loss to the Patriots is more credible than the Bear’s loss. And the Falcons beat the 49ers, a decent team, and the Dolphins, who are not so bad as some think. They have yet to play the Saints, and must see them twice. We will know much more about the Falcons then.
#6 Indianapolis Colts: Yeah, I know they are 5-0 and everybody is talking about how great Manning is, and I agree…but have you seen their opponents? The Colts beat the Jaguars, the Dolphins, the Cardinals, Seahawks and Titans…how many of these teams have a winning record? At this point, NONE. We have not seen the Colts truly tested, and until we do, I can’t put them any higher unless other circumstances change. A good team, yes, and by my list the THIRD best team in the AFC.
#5 New York Giants: Yes, another 5-0 team ranked lower than many thought. Last week I had them #1, but when you look at the body of work, and with Manning slightly injured, this could be a problem. Their wins are over the very troubled Redskins, the confusing Cowboys, the hapless Buccaneers, the lowly Chiefs and the “what the heck” Raiders…hardly a strong case for to be the best team in the NFL.
#4 Minnesota Vikings: Last week I had them #6, but the last three weeks they have beaten teams that are at least .500. This includes the Cardinals, Packers and 49ers. Minnesota is playing a tougher competition (though not by too much) than the Giants and the Colts. We know this will play itself out, but right now, I think Brett Farve and AP are worth the top 4 ranking.
#3 New Orleans Saints. I dropped the Saints one spot from last week simply because they are 4-0, not 5-0 like other teams. But I also dropped them one spot becaue their wins over the Lions and Bills don’t seem like so much, and the Eagles are not on my top 10 list. So their only big win was over the Jets, but they didn’t make my list this week either. Still I have them, as of now, as the best NFC team…Superbowl bound?
#2 Cincinnati Bengals: This 3-1 team is playing better than most 4-0 or 5-0 teams, and the wins prove it. I vault them up from #9 to number 2 because their body of work is impressive. They beat the Packers, who are at .500, they beat the defending Superbowl champs in the Steelers, they beat their rival the Browns (ok, not the hardest thing to do) and they beat the Ravens, who I have as #10 on my list. Their only loss comes to the….
#1 Denver Broncos: At 5-0, who would have thought that? I had the Broncos at #3 last week, even then believing they were the best AFC team, now they may well be the best team period. They beat the Bengals and the Patriots, two very quality wins. And let’s face it folks, with the Raiders and the Chiefs in the division, they seemed to be assured of at least 4 more wins. But the Chargers could make it interesting. Still, right now, who can deny the Broncos?
So that’s my list right now, always subject to change as the weeks go on. Now let’s have some fun this weekend with more football!!!!
Does Southern Cal have a shot at the BCS?
Can USC get to the BCS Title?
Quick Answer: Sure, they are within shot.
But it becomes slightly more complicated, and it begins with this weekend’s game vs. Notre Dame.
Southern Cal has this thing about losing one game and then getting all fired up for the rest of the year…that has already happened with the loss to Washington. Now with Southern Cal bounced out of the realm of the undefeated, they must claw their way back into the BCS Championship picture, and to be sure, there is time.
But there are several teams that stand in their way. They need only get to either #2, or of course, #1, to grab a part of that BCS shot. Here is the Rogue’s Gallery of foes that USC must overcome in order to get to the BCS Championship:
#25 Notre Dame: I guess whining has its purpose, since Charlie Weiss cried about why the Fighting Irish was not in the top 25...now they are. For USC to make a run, it begins with a road game vs. Notre Dame, and there are some who think it is possible for the Trojans to lose. They are weakest on the road, and this is not the dominant team some thought it was…after all they lost to Washington on the road. Simply put, a second loss destroys any chances to the BCS title game, so this weekend means everything.
Oregon State: Remember these guys…they beat USC last year. But now the Beavers come to visit, and USC needs redemption from that most embarrassing loss. USC tends to play well at home, but OSU has a winning record. The Pac 10 might be very tough to deal with, including their own members. USC can’t have a hangover from this weekend, win or lose to Notre Dame, because the competition rises after that.
#13 Oregon: A road game vs. a top 15 team will be a real test for USC to get back in the mix. If by this time they still have one loss, the wins over ND and OSU will have then inside the top 5. A win here will lock it down as an easy top 5 team, maybe even top 4.
Arizona State: Again, USC is touchable when they get on the road, as if they play down to the level of their competition. ASU is at this moment 3-2, so this is not a cupcake game. It will be interesting to see how this team will keep the intensity after playing three straight major games to them.
Stanford: Technically on the standings they are better than Southern Cal, but that is a technicality. Still, this is a game the Trojans cannot ignore, especially when you are talking about in state rivalries. In fact, by this time USC will be home the rest of the season, with their remaining games being either a home game, or against a team from California.
#5 Boise State: No, the Trojans don’t play them but they still factor into USC’s goal of getting to that title game. If USC continues to win, the strength of schedule will easily overtake Boise State. If Boise State loses even one game, their dreams will be dashed. But if USC can win the remaining games in a tougher conference, they will surely jump over Boise State.
#4 Virginia Tech: This will be another obstacle that USC cannot control. Some say that Virginia Tech might be able to run the tables and lock a BCS Title game. Both teams have one loss, and few will argue that the ACC is just as competitive as the Pac-10. If things stay the way they are, USC will have to go to style points to get some support. Beating their Pac-10 foes by 20 or more will impress the voters to think that if it came down to Virginia Tech and USC, then the Trojans might be slightly better. And with VA Tech’s schedule getting slightly easier, this may be the MO for USC.
#3 Texas: There are probably a ton of Southern Cal fans rooting for Oklahoma this weekend, because a loss to Texas will give USC some hope. If Texas runs the table, an undefeated Longhorns team will have an absolute shot in the Title game…no doubt about it. The Big 12 isn’t as powerful as it was last year, but no one will argue that an undefeated Texas squad is better than a 1 loss USC team. For any hope, USC has to hope that Texas loses at least one game…preferably this weekend.
EITHER #2 Alabama or #1 Florida: This problem will solve itself because these two teams must play each other sometime if they remain undefeated. Although they are not on the regular season schedule, they can meet in the SEC Championship game. USC needs either of these teams to lose to have a shot. They stand a great chance of jumping over the loser of that game than most other circumstances.
So, does USC have a shot…sure they do. It begins now, in winning a road game vs. a top 25 team, but continues in facing several strong opponents in their conference, but it also requires some favor in higher ranking teams losing. If USC does their part, we know they will jump over Boise State…maybe, MAYBE, even Virginia Tech. But to jump into the top 2, they need Texas to lose a game…with Texas playing Oklahoma, and USC playing Notre Dame…lots of things can happen. We shall see.
Quick Answer: Sure, they are within shot.
But it becomes slightly more complicated, and it begins with this weekend’s game vs. Notre Dame.
Southern Cal has this thing about losing one game and then getting all fired up for the rest of the year…that has already happened with the loss to Washington. Now with Southern Cal bounced out of the realm of the undefeated, they must claw their way back into the BCS Championship picture, and to be sure, there is time.
But there are several teams that stand in their way. They need only get to either #2, or of course, #1, to grab a part of that BCS shot. Here is the Rogue’s Gallery of foes that USC must overcome in order to get to the BCS Championship:
#25 Notre Dame: I guess whining has its purpose, since Charlie Weiss cried about why the Fighting Irish was not in the top 25...now they are. For USC to make a run, it begins with a road game vs. Notre Dame, and there are some who think it is possible for the Trojans to lose. They are weakest on the road, and this is not the dominant team some thought it was…after all they lost to Washington on the road. Simply put, a second loss destroys any chances to the BCS title game, so this weekend means everything.
Oregon State: Remember these guys…they beat USC last year. But now the Beavers come to visit, and USC needs redemption from that most embarrassing loss. USC tends to play well at home, but OSU has a winning record. The Pac 10 might be very tough to deal with, including their own members. USC can’t have a hangover from this weekend, win or lose to Notre Dame, because the competition rises after that.
#13 Oregon: A road game vs. a top 15 team will be a real test for USC to get back in the mix. If by this time they still have one loss, the wins over ND and OSU will have then inside the top 5. A win here will lock it down as an easy top 5 team, maybe even top 4.
Arizona State: Again, USC is touchable when they get on the road, as if they play down to the level of their competition. ASU is at this moment 3-2, so this is not a cupcake game. It will be interesting to see how this team will keep the intensity after playing three straight major games to them.
Stanford: Technically on the standings they are better than Southern Cal, but that is a technicality. Still, this is a game the Trojans cannot ignore, especially when you are talking about in state rivalries. In fact, by this time USC will be home the rest of the season, with their remaining games being either a home game, or against a team from California.
#5 Boise State: No, the Trojans don’t play them but they still factor into USC’s goal of getting to that title game. If USC continues to win, the strength of schedule will easily overtake Boise State. If Boise State loses even one game, their dreams will be dashed. But if USC can win the remaining games in a tougher conference, they will surely jump over Boise State.
#4 Virginia Tech: This will be another obstacle that USC cannot control. Some say that Virginia Tech might be able to run the tables and lock a BCS Title game. Both teams have one loss, and few will argue that the ACC is just as competitive as the Pac-10. If things stay the way they are, USC will have to go to style points to get some support. Beating their Pac-10 foes by 20 or more will impress the voters to think that if it came down to Virginia Tech and USC, then the Trojans might be slightly better. And with VA Tech’s schedule getting slightly easier, this may be the MO for USC.
#3 Texas: There are probably a ton of Southern Cal fans rooting for Oklahoma this weekend, because a loss to Texas will give USC some hope. If Texas runs the table, an undefeated Longhorns team will have an absolute shot in the Title game…no doubt about it. The Big 12 isn’t as powerful as it was last year, but no one will argue that an undefeated Texas squad is better than a 1 loss USC team. For any hope, USC has to hope that Texas loses at least one game…preferably this weekend.
EITHER #2 Alabama or #1 Florida: This problem will solve itself because these two teams must play each other sometime if they remain undefeated. Although they are not on the regular season schedule, they can meet in the SEC Championship game. USC needs either of these teams to lose to have a shot. They stand a great chance of jumping over the loser of that game than most other circumstances.
So, does USC have a shot…sure they do. It begins now, in winning a road game vs. a top 25 team, but continues in facing several strong opponents in their conference, but it also requires some favor in higher ranking teams losing. If USC does their part, we know they will jump over Boise State…maybe, MAYBE, even Virginia Tech. But to jump into the top 2, they need Texas to lose a game…with Texas playing Oklahoma, and USC playing Notre Dame…lots of things can happen. We shall see.
Is Boise State worth a top 5 ranking?
Where should Boise State REALLY be ranked?
Is this REALLY the 5th best team in the nation?
And that’s what the top 25 is supposed to do, indicate the top teams, IN ORDER. That means whoever is the #1 team (in this case Florida at the moment) means they are the BEST team in the nation. There is debate about whether Texas or Alabama are the second best, and it dips a bit from there.
Last night on ESPN Boise State beat Tulsa 28-21. So the debate begins, is this really a top 5 team?
To me, to be a great team you have to have a schedule that indicates that you beat some quality teams. And lately many average non-BCS schools have been scheduling cupcakes out of the BCS conferences so they can say they “beat” teams out of the BCS conferences.
Folks, just because you beat Vanderbilt out of the SEC does not mean you get much more credibility for beating a BCS conference team. Just because you beat Duke from the ACC does not give you credibility for beating a BCS conference team. Now, you beat Virginia tech or LSU, THEN we are talking.
The heavy criticism on Boise State is that they shy away from doing what Fresno State commonly does…schedule anybody, anywhere at anytime. Last year the only real games on Boise State’s schedule was Oregon and Southern Miss, and to their credit they won both. But a perfect record out of the weak WAC does not make them a top 5 contender.
The same applies this year. Boise State, to their great credit, did beat Oregon…on their smurf turf, so that indeed is a quality win. Ok, fine…what have you done lately? The game last night was against a Tulsa team that is one of the best of the Conference USA, but Tulsa is still an average team. And does it look like they are pretty touchable this year? Lots of close games, even against average and below average opponents.
If you ask me if Boise State is better than USC, that answer is NO. If you asked me if they were better than Ohio State, I say NO. And the same if paired against Penn State, LSU, Iowa and Virginia Tech. Boise State does not play big time games week in and week out, but only schedule one big game a year. I mean, let’s be honest, they didn’t HAVE to schedule UC Davis or Miami Ohio, did they? The WAC conference schedule is weak enough, you didn’t bolster the schedule by putting them on.
Granted, the win over Oregon looks great now, but look at what happened after that game: Boise State goes on to play a sub par schedule, although still winning. Oregon goes on and knocks off top 20 Utah, and top 6 California…back to back.
To me, Oregon is the better team, at this point than Boise State. Why? Because the level of competition is far greater on Oregon’s side than Boise State. Yeah, I know Boise State beat Oregon, at home, but Oregon beat two ranked teams…at home.
I just can’t see Boise State as a top 5 team, they have not beaten enough teams to earn such a high mark. Top 10, maybe. There is no more quality games on their schedule, so the only way they are going to get respect is if more teams lose to give the Broncos some level of security. There are many one-loss teams that are better than Boise State, there might be a couple of 2 loss teams that can match up with Boise State.
But you can’t blame Boise State players…blame the AD. If you REALLY want to start an argument about Boise State and the BCS, schedule tougher teams. Drop UC Davis and pop in Missouri. Change Miami Oh for Wisconsin. Exchange Tulsa for Arkansas. These may not be the cream of the crop for their conferences, but they are no easy wins either. You do that, and sweep, then nobody can argue that Boise State deserves strong consideration for a BCS if they go perfect.
Or at least force more conversations for a playoff… which I am not in favor of.
Is this REALLY the 5th best team in the nation?
And that’s what the top 25 is supposed to do, indicate the top teams, IN ORDER. That means whoever is the #1 team (in this case Florida at the moment) means they are the BEST team in the nation. There is debate about whether Texas or Alabama are the second best, and it dips a bit from there.
Last night on ESPN Boise State beat Tulsa 28-21. So the debate begins, is this really a top 5 team?
To me, to be a great team you have to have a schedule that indicates that you beat some quality teams. And lately many average non-BCS schools have been scheduling cupcakes out of the BCS conferences so they can say they “beat” teams out of the BCS conferences.
Folks, just because you beat Vanderbilt out of the SEC does not mean you get much more credibility for beating a BCS conference team. Just because you beat Duke from the ACC does not give you credibility for beating a BCS conference team. Now, you beat Virginia tech or LSU, THEN we are talking.
The heavy criticism on Boise State is that they shy away from doing what Fresno State commonly does…schedule anybody, anywhere at anytime. Last year the only real games on Boise State’s schedule was Oregon and Southern Miss, and to their credit they won both. But a perfect record out of the weak WAC does not make them a top 5 contender.
The same applies this year. Boise State, to their great credit, did beat Oregon…on their smurf turf, so that indeed is a quality win. Ok, fine…what have you done lately? The game last night was against a Tulsa team that is one of the best of the Conference USA, but Tulsa is still an average team. And does it look like they are pretty touchable this year? Lots of close games, even against average and below average opponents.
If you ask me if Boise State is better than USC, that answer is NO. If you asked me if they were better than Ohio State, I say NO. And the same if paired against Penn State, LSU, Iowa and Virginia Tech. Boise State does not play big time games week in and week out, but only schedule one big game a year. I mean, let’s be honest, they didn’t HAVE to schedule UC Davis or Miami Ohio, did they? The WAC conference schedule is weak enough, you didn’t bolster the schedule by putting them on.
Granted, the win over Oregon looks great now, but look at what happened after that game: Boise State goes on to play a sub par schedule, although still winning. Oregon goes on and knocks off top 20 Utah, and top 6 California…back to back.
To me, Oregon is the better team, at this point than Boise State. Why? Because the level of competition is far greater on Oregon’s side than Boise State. Yeah, I know Boise State beat Oregon, at home, but Oregon beat two ranked teams…at home.
I just can’t see Boise State as a top 5 team, they have not beaten enough teams to earn such a high mark. Top 10, maybe. There is no more quality games on their schedule, so the only way they are going to get respect is if more teams lose to give the Broncos some level of security. There are many one-loss teams that are better than Boise State, there might be a couple of 2 loss teams that can match up with Boise State.
But you can’t blame Boise State players…blame the AD. If you REALLY want to start an argument about Boise State and the BCS, schedule tougher teams. Drop UC Davis and pop in Missouri. Change Miami Oh for Wisconsin. Exchange Tulsa for Arkansas. These may not be the cream of the crop for their conferences, but they are no easy wins either. You do that, and sweep, then nobody can argue that Boise State deserves strong consideration for a BCS if they go perfect.
Or at least force more conversations for a playoff… which I am not in favor of.
How good is Alabama football?
How good is Alabama?
Let’s take a hard look at the Alabama Crimson Tide, and see the greatness of the team…or how they might be a little over rated.
This is not made in cruel jest to the fans of Alabama, but let’s face it, to be a GREAT team, there has to be some strong indicators of it, and the signs of a great team are not just in wins, but WHO you beat, WHERE you beat them, and how much.
Last night, during the Boise State/Tulsa game, Lou Holtz (of whom I am NOT a fan of) said that style points didn’t matter when you are trying to prove to the nation how good you are…
That is spaghetti hogwash!
The power of a team is strongly based on who you beat and by how much. So I use that formula to examine whether Alabama is worthy of the #3 ranking that much of the pollsters feel they belong.
We start from last year, because it is how they vaulted so high at the beginning of this year.
Last year Alabama finished 12-2, one of the better teams of the nation. I mean, surely if you come out of the SEC with such a record, and only lose two games that year, it means you are poised for a real shot at the National Championship, right?
Alabama went 12-0 at one point, until it came to playing Florida in the SEC Championship, and lost that by 11. They went to a bowl and lost to Utah by 14. The Crimson Tide lost to two “better than average” teams. So am I implying that all they beat were “average” teams last year? Let’s examine:
Factor out the cupcakes like Western Kentucky and Arkansas State and we’ll start with the 10 teams they played. They beat Clemson first, and remember this was a team ranked as one of the top 10, maybe top 5 in the nation…how did that work out? Finished a dismal 7-6.
Then there was Tulane…finished 2-10. But by then the nation thought that Alabama was immediately a top 5 team because they dismantled Clemson, who clearly was not who anybody thought they were.
So now we get into the SEC schedule. Home game wins over Kentucky, Mississippi, Mississippi State and Auburn. The latter two teams didn’t even qualify for a bowl, Kentucky goes 7-6 and Mississippi turns out to be a decent team, so credit to Alabama for winning that game. The Kentucky and MSU games turn out to be closer than the other home games.
The road games included Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee and LSU. Arkansas and Tennessee don’t win enough to qualify for a bowl, but Georgia has a 10 win season, and LSU has a good 8 win season. The Georgia win on the road may well have been Alabama’s best win of the year.
If you melt down the games and pick out the defining games, it would have to be the road wins over Georgia and LSU. This indeed validates Alabama as a good team…but a top 10 team? I think so. Top 5? I am not too certain.
Now fast forward to this year, 2009.
Currently 6-0, let’s go ahead and factor out Florida International and North Texas. These are cupcake games that do not factor in the greatness of a team should they win, but cripple a season when they lose. Simply put, Alabama was supposed to win those anyway.
But what of Virginia Tech? Now THAT is a credible win. Virginia Tech has only lost one game so far this year…to this very same Alabama squad. Some might question the strength of the ACC, but to me, this is a very valid win for Alabama.
So now we look at their other wins, home at Arkansas, and on the road at Kentucky and then ranked #20 Mississippi. This Arkansas team might be pretty decent, after knocking off ranked Auburn, but is this an over rated team? Still many more games to go, and Arkansas has historically been a mid-card team.
Kentucky has lost 3 straight, after barely beating Louisville in the second game…looks like a basement team for the SEC. Mississippi was once a top 5 team but we all found out that this was mirror magic. As Dennis Green once said of the Chicago Bears, “they are who we THOUGHT they were!”
So right now, Alabama has a good win over Virginia Tech, and the jury is still out on Arkansas. That is the length of their greatness…does THAT warrant a top 3 ranking?
I gotta tell ya, I am not fully convinced about a top 3 ranking, especially since many teams got political slides based on other teams losing. You tell me how Mississippi can jump up to #4 because better teams lost big time games. Many teams got that advantage this year, only to prove that they weren’t worth the high ranking. Is Alabama the same way? Remember folks, this was a team that went 12-0 over an average schedule, or slightly better than average, before losing to Florida and Utah, back to back.
Top 10? Definitely! Top 5? No probs with that. Top 3? Not too sure. Not yet.
Let’s take a hard look at the Alabama Crimson Tide, and see the greatness of the team…or how they might be a little over rated.
This is not made in cruel jest to the fans of Alabama, but let’s face it, to be a GREAT team, there has to be some strong indicators of it, and the signs of a great team are not just in wins, but WHO you beat, WHERE you beat them, and how much.
Last night, during the Boise State/Tulsa game, Lou Holtz (of whom I am NOT a fan of) said that style points didn’t matter when you are trying to prove to the nation how good you are…
That is spaghetti hogwash!
The power of a team is strongly based on who you beat and by how much. So I use that formula to examine whether Alabama is worthy of the #3 ranking that much of the pollsters feel they belong.
We start from last year, because it is how they vaulted so high at the beginning of this year.
Last year Alabama finished 12-2, one of the better teams of the nation. I mean, surely if you come out of the SEC with such a record, and only lose two games that year, it means you are poised for a real shot at the National Championship, right?
Alabama went 12-0 at one point, until it came to playing Florida in the SEC Championship, and lost that by 11. They went to a bowl and lost to Utah by 14. The Crimson Tide lost to two “better than average” teams. So am I implying that all they beat were “average” teams last year? Let’s examine:
Factor out the cupcakes like Western Kentucky and Arkansas State and we’ll start with the 10 teams they played. They beat Clemson first, and remember this was a team ranked as one of the top 10, maybe top 5 in the nation…how did that work out? Finished a dismal 7-6.
Then there was Tulane…finished 2-10. But by then the nation thought that Alabama was immediately a top 5 team because they dismantled Clemson, who clearly was not who anybody thought they were.
So now we get into the SEC schedule. Home game wins over Kentucky, Mississippi, Mississippi State and Auburn. The latter two teams didn’t even qualify for a bowl, Kentucky goes 7-6 and Mississippi turns out to be a decent team, so credit to Alabama for winning that game. The Kentucky and MSU games turn out to be closer than the other home games.
The road games included Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee and LSU. Arkansas and Tennessee don’t win enough to qualify for a bowl, but Georgia has a 10 win season, and LSU has a good 8 win season. The Georgia win on the road may well have been Alabama’s best win of the year.
If you melt down the games and pick out the defining games, it would have to be the road wins over Georgia and LSU. This indeed validates Alabama as a good team…but a top 10 team? I think so. Top 5? I am not too certain.
Now fast forward to this year, 2009.
Currently 6-0, let’s go ahead and factor out Florida International and North Texas. These are cupcake games that do not factor in the greatness of a team should they win, but cripple a season when they lose. Simply put, Alabama was supposed to win those anyway.
But what of Virginia Tech? Now THAT is a credible win. Virginia Tech has only lost one game so far this year…to this very same Alabama squad. Some might question the strength of the ACC, but to me, this is a very valid win for Alabama.
So now we look at their other wins, home at Arkansas, and on the road at Kentucky and then ranked #20 Mississippi. This Arkansas team might be pretty decent, after knocking off ranked Auburn, but is this an over rated team? Still many more games to go, and Arkansas has historically been a mid-card team.
Kentucky has lost 3 straight, after barely beating Louisville in the second game…looks like a basement team for the SEC. Mississippi was once a top 5 team but we all found out that this was mirror magic. As Dennis Green once said of the Chicago Bears, “they are who we THOUGHT they were!”
So right now, Alabama has a good win over Virginia Tech, and the jury is still out on Arkansas. That is the length of their greatness…does THAT warrant a top 3 ranking?
I gotta tell ya, I am not fully convinced about a top 3 ranking, especially since many teams got political slides based on other teams losing. You tell me how Mississippi can jump up to #4 because better teams lost big time games. Many teams got that advantage this year, only to prove that they weren’t worth the high ranking. Is Alabama the same way? Remember folks, this was a team that went 12-0 over an average schedule, or slightly better than average, before losing to Florida and Utah, back to back.
Top 10? Definitely! Top 5? No probs with that. Top 3? Not too sure. Not yet.
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