Cincinnati in the BCS?

Cincinnati in the BCS?

I didn’t get a chance to blog before the Cincinnati/South Florida game, I wanted to but some things came up. But last night the Bearcats doubled up South Florida 34-17, although it may have cost them their NFL prospect quarterback. (well wishes Pike, get well soon).

But now with them winning, we have an interesting question. ESPN talked about this last night, and the question now is; can Cincinnati qualify and get a BCS Title game?

Actually I think the question is wrong, because that is not the real issue. I mean, right now there are still over 20 teams that have a shot at the title, maybe more. The question is just too vague, because anything can happen from week to week. Although not too likely, it is not out of the realm of possibility that Florida, Alabama, Texas, Boise State, USC, Penn State and Iowa can lose two games.

I didn’t say likely, I said possibly.

I mean, with 6-7 games left for most of these teams, even DUKE has a shot…ugh.

So the question of whether Cincinnati can qualify is a foolish one, because the answer is ABSOLUTELY.

We have to refine that question to something more logical. How about this; what are the chances of Cincinnati becoming one of the two best teams in the nation by the end of the year?

See, if they are one of the two best, then we know they should be considered for a National Championship. So let’s explore this on a few issues: first, the Big East Conference, second, Cincinnati’s schedule, and third, whether they could be considered better than other undefeated teams, or one loss teams.

First, we have to address the Big East. The last couple of years they have been in the dumps, considered by many as a worthless conference (but don’t say that in basketball). I personally felt the Mountain West, with Utah, BYU and TCU was a better football conference than the Big East.

But this is a quality conference, yet the voters showed no respect to any team in the Big East at the beginning of the year. Not one team was in the top 25 at the beginning of the year. I wondered about this because Cincinnati won 11 games last year. How can you deny a team with 11 wins on the top 25, when you got teams like Notre Dame that clearly underachieved, but still made the top 25?

Go figure.

The second argument is Cincinnati themselves. Yes they went 11-3 last year, but those three losses were to Oklahoma, Virginia Tech and Connecticut. The first two I can understand, but the jury is still out on UCONN.

But sweeping the other foes has to count for something. Right now Cincinnati is ranked #8 and is 6-0. If any upsets happen over the weekend, they can easily slide into the top 5. To this date they have only beaten one ranked foe, but they beat Fresno State, who Boise State also beat, and they also beat a Pac-10 foe in Oregon State. These are quality wins, if you put them side by side with a team like Boise State.

And with games against West Virginia and Pittsburgh, this could be some valid games to add on. It is quite possible for the Bearcats to run the table…if healthy.

But the main argument here is whether this team is better than any other undefeated team, or any 1 loss teams out there. Do I believe the Bearcats are better than Florida? No. Do I believe they are better than Texas? No. Do I believe they are better than Alabama…not really.

That alone means they are not, at this point, worthy of a BCS Championship shot, even if they go undefeated. Now, I think that they MIGHT be better than Boise State, and in fact if both go undefeated, the Bearcats will get the greater nod than the Broncos.

So what about 1 loss teams? Is Cincinnati better than Virginia Tech…well, they lost to them last year, didn’t they? Do I think they are better than USC…nope. Do I think they are better than Ohio State…no. Do I think they are better than Miami…hmm, interesting.

But this still keeps them out of the top 5 because right now, they are just not THAT team, no more than Boise State, and right now Boise State rests on the win over Oregon, which if I am correct was ranked #20 when they played. Cincinnati beat South Florida last night, who was ranked #21...so by the slimmest of margins, right now, Boise State is better.

So right now, we can’t say that Cincinnati is good enough to contend for the BCS, they would have to slide into it by fault of other teams. If they are the only undefeated team in the nation by the end of the season, it would immediately eliminate Boise State. If everybody in the top 10 lost one more except Cincinnati, it would eliminate USC, Ohio State, Boise State, Virginia Tech, Miami and LSU.

That would leave 4 teams to fight for it…Florida, Alabama, Texas and Cincinnati. So ask yourself this, if Florida, Alabama and Texas each had one loss, and Cincinnati had none, would you consider Cincinnati for a BCS title?

Would a perfect Bearcats team REALLY be better than the Gators, Crimson Tide or Longhorns?