Florida State vs UNC

Florida State vs. UNC

This is one of those games that few outside the ACC are paying attention to, but those in North Carolina and Florida are looking at very seriously.

Two teams that were thought to be in the mix for the ACC crown, but to this point have been very disappointing. UNC was 8-5 last year, and Florida State was 9-4, so you assume that these two teams would have much to say about playing in that ACC Championship.

Not exactly.

Both teams are at the bottom of their division; neither team has a conference win yet, collectively 0-5 and yet their records are reversed. While UNC is at least 4-2, Florida State is the inverse, at 2-4.

Florida State needs this win for every reason known to man. A coach being forced to quit, the team struggling to win games, and the need to restore some pride to the Seminole nation. But get this, of the last 8 losses, extending to last year, SIX of them come from their own home. Imagine that, not winning in your own house!

Last year they lost home games to Wake Forest by 9, Boston College by 10 and to Florida by 30. That’s three of their 4 losses last year. This year they lose at home to Miami by 4, South Florida by 10, and Georgia Tech by 5. Outside of the Florida loss last year, Florida State has not lost by much, by usually one possession.

So this could just as well be a team that is winning more than they are losing, but why do I think that maybe familiarity is the Seminole’s problem? Sometimes you spend too much time playing in front of Florida fans that you forget that you are a target to everybody else. Maybe Florida State is too comfortable at home, and NEEDS to get out of the state and play. Hey, it worked against BYU didn’t it?

And correct me if I am wrong…aren’t they playing AT UNC tonight?

On the other end, UNC has a decent record, but it still isn’t proving a thing. Last year their 8-5 record seemed nice, with wins over Connecticut, Notre Dame and Rutgers. But they were not consistent in their conference, losing games to Maryland, NC State and even Duke…back to back to back!

This year that 4-2 record looks cute, but beating Citadel, ECU and Georgia Southern is hardly impressive at all. They do have a decent win over Connecticut, but the Huskies have been a mid-card team in the Big East (prayers to their lost player).

The schedule gets much tougher for UNC, and they have only beaten Florida State once in their history. With upcoming games vs. Virginia Tech, Miami, Boston College and rival NC State, UNC really, REALLY needs this win to hope for a bowl. If they lose this game to Florida State, they could struggle to get those 6 wins needed to go to a bowl.

This is going to be a hard game to call, because I personally think Florida State is much better than they have shown. Mind you, FSU has played 5 teams that have been, or currently ranked…that is a tough schedule. UNC played only one…and lost. I think Florida State plays better outside of the state, because they don’t have the distractions of the expectations of playing in a historically great program. Perhaps they need this game to get out and, oddly enough, relax.

But UNC has some quality wins with them from last year. At home they did beat Connecticut, Notre Dame, Boston College and Georgia Tech. Something has to give.

I am a UNC fan at heart, but I still think FSU has what it takes to win, and with their backs against the wall, I think they will perform. This may not be the team that crushed BYU, but it won’t be the team that barely beat Jacksonville State…which by the way was another Florida game.

Perhaps FSU ought to consider playing all their games outside the state of Florida… if they win tonight, expect some radical changes in their schedules (smile). I think Florida State wins by 6 points.