New BCS: Iowa and Cincinnati

New BCS Formula: Iowa and Cincinnati

Now, if you are confused about what I am writing, bounce back to the previous post about the Florida rankings and my new BCS Formula. It will explain a few things for you.

This is simply my attempt to find a different way to determine who the best teams in the FCS are, rather than simply letting media-heads with biased opinions guess on who are the top 25.

To do this, I thought about some of the most basic factors in determining the best teams. I combined them, gave values for each and award such points to every team who accomplishes the factor. I came up with 24 different factors, but they actually can be broken down into 9 different groups.

To demonstrate, I will run two undefeated teams through this formula, using Iowa and Cincinnati:

To start off, I give the most points simply for winning…it is of course the most important factor of getting to the BCS, right?

Factor #1 Winning: I give 20 points for every win a team has. Because Iowa is 7-0, they get 140 points. Because Cincinnati is 6-0, they get 120 points.

Factors 2&3: Where you win is important, and you get points for that. I believe home wins are more important because you must “protect this house” as a commercial once said. I give 7 points for each home win, and 5 points for each road win. Iowa has 4 home wins, which gives them 28 points, while Cincinnati has 2 home wins, for 14 points. For the road games, Iowa has 3 road wins for 15 points, Cincinnati has 4 road wins, for 20 points.

If you are keeping score, that gives Iowa 183 points to Cincinnati’s 154.

Factors 3-5: The type of opponent you beat is important, and can even cost you a few points. I give credit to beating conference opponents, non conference opponents and I also penalize for playing a non-division I team. To me, a great team has to dominate their own conference first, then any wins outside the conference is extra. Beating a team not in the Division I means nothing to a great team.

So under these factors, Iowa gets 21 points for conference wins, 20 points for non-conference wins, but loses 2 points for playing Northern Iowa. That gives them 39 points.

Cincinnati gets 14 points for conference wins, 20 points for non-conference wins, but loses 2 points for playing SE Missouri State. That gives them a total of 32 points.

Score so far, Iowa 222 points, Cincinnati 186.

Factors 7-10: It is also important to beat teams that are ranked, and I used the AP poll as a constant to determine the points awarded. You get more points if you knock off a top 25 team. I give 10 points to any team beating a top 5 squad, 7 points for beating a team 6-10, I give 5 points for beating a team ranked 11-15, and 3 points for any team under that, but still ranked.

This rewards teams that prove that they are indeed one of the best teams in the land, rather than beating cupcakes every Saturday. To date, Iowa has only beaten one team that was ranked, which was #5 Penn State. That gives them 10 points.

Cincinnati has only defeated formerly ranked South Florida, which was #21. For that they get only 3 points.

Total so far, Iowa 232, Cincinnati 189.

Factors 11-13: Strength of opponent: I award points if you beat a team that is currently over .500 or even. I penalize if you beat a team that is under .500. This awards beating teams with winning records, and although a team can’t control the fate of their opponents, it still has to factor in.

Amazingly, 6 of Iowa’s 7 opponents have a winning record, and I give 7 points for each win, for a big 49 points. They lose only 2 points after that because they have one opponent with a losing record at this time, so their total here is 47 points.

Cincinnati has beaten 3 teams with a current winning record, which gives them 21 points. They also have a victory against a team that is even, which gives them 3 more points, but loses 4 points because they beat two teams with losing records. This gives them a sub total of 20 points.

So far, Iowa 279, Cincinnati 209.

Factors 14-16: Style points: I don’t care what anybody says, the way you beat your opponent does say a lot about how good you are. This is not to influence running up the score, but clearly it determines your strength. I give 5 points for every win over 36 points, 3 points for every win over 24 points and 1 point for every win over 16 points. So if a team wins by 30, I slot them in the highest slot possible, which would be the 24+ factor, giving them 3 points. I would not put them in multiple slots, I put them in the highest one they qualify for.

Knowing this, Iowa only gets 3 points because of their win over Iowa State. No other games qualify them since nearly all their games have been close. Cincinnati has one game where they won by over 36 points (+5), one other game where they won by over 24 points (+3) and two games where they won by over 16 (1 pt for each win). That gives Cincinnati a total of 10 points in this set of factors.

Score, Iowa 282, Cincinnati 219

Factors 17-19 Passing credits: I award points if a team is in the top 5, 10 or 20 in passing by either yards or touchdowns. Because teams may use multiple quarterbacks, I use any that are on the top 20. I give 5 points if a team is in the top 5 in yards OR touchdowns. I give 3 points if they are in the top 10, and 1 point if they are on the top 20.

In this case, which does change weekly, Iowa is NOT on the top 20 in either case, but Cincinnati is on the top 5 in touchdowns and top 20 in yards. The Bearcats get 6 points for this, while Iowa gets none.

Iowa still at 282, Cincinnati now has 225.

Factors 20-22 Rushing credits: Just like passing, the points are the same if a team is in the top 5, 10 or 20 for rushing in either yards or touchdowns. But in this case, NEITHER team gets any points since they do not rank in the top 20 in either touchdowns or yards. So the score remains the same.

Factors 23 & 24: Points given up: I award 5 points for every game where the defense allowed UNDER 8 points, and 2 points for every game the defense allowed under 16 points. This acknowledges defensive play, and could rack up some nice numbers.

Under these factors, Iowa had 2 games where they allowed under 16 points, and one game where they allowed under 8 points. They get 2 points for each of those two games, and 5 points for allowing under 8 in a game, for a total of 9 points. Cincinnati is exactly the same, having two games where they allowed under 16, and one game where the defense allowed under 8 points, so they get 9 points as well.

So the grand total, as of this week, Iowa 291, Cincinnati 234.

So where does this put them in the top 5? If we used the same formula for Florida, Boise State, Alabama and Texas, which I did in the previous blog, this is what we have:

1. Alabama 297 points

2. Iowa 291 points

3. Florida 247 points

4. Texas 238 points

5. Cincinnati 234 points

6. Boise State 225 points.

I remind you that Alabama and Iowa have the advantage of playing 7 games, not six, so that explains why they are so far ahead of the others at this point in time. Remember, I award 20 points off the top just for winning, so the 50 point difference between them and the others is partly based on that.

But you can also see where Boise State is, at number 6, based on the current circumstances. I ran TCU under the same formula and they came out with 222 points, just a hair short of Boise State…but remember, this is just for this week, it changes weekly.

So at this moment, Iowa and Alabama are the best teams in the nation, but only because they have one more game under their belts. Considering that you can get a good 40-60 points per win, Texas, Florida and Cincinnati are not that far behind at all.

We will see how it goes.