NEW BCS TOP 15, Oct 29th

The NEW BCS, OCT 29th version

The top 15

Again, if you have not read my blogs before, jump back a few and see how I came up with these numbers. It is NOT etched in stone but give some sense of validity rather than just having a bunch of dudes picking teams.

My NEW BCS is based on rewarding points for factors of the game, the most important being WINNING. I give 20 points for every game a team wins. But I award bonus points for other factors, such as winning at home, winning conference games, winning by certain amounts and so forth. I also award…or penalize a team if the teams on their schedule are above .500, even or below. I penalize teams that play a non Division I foe, whether they win OR lose.

Again, you’ll have to jump back to find the posts on what I am talking about, if you want I can go over it again in my next blog to explain some things. But until then, let’s count down my top 15:

#15 Utah 187 points: Folks, I gotta tell ya, the schedule Utah has played thus far is VERY poor, it is hard to put them in the ranks of the top 10 when more of their teams have losing records than anybody else. This is a heavy penalty that shows a weak strength of schedule. But there is still time to rise in the ranks, since the Mountain West is indeed a good conference this year.

#14 Virginia Tech 233 points: Two losses virtually destroys any chance to the BCS, and we all thought VA Tech was all that too. Consider this folks, this team has two losses, and still is better than Utah…if the Hokies had won one of those two games, they could easily have been in the top 10.

#13 Oklahoma State 234 points: That embarrassing loss to Houston must still be like mud in their face, but the difference between Oklahoma State and a top 10 is actually about 30 points. It’s just harder to compete at this moment with teams with 7 wins under their belt, so this could even out eventually.

#12 Oregon 235 points: This is odd because for a team with 1 loss, I have them outside the top 10. Why? Their strength of schedule takes some punch out of what they have done, although they have defeated two top 15 ranked teams. If you are looking at 6 win teams, this is one of the best, but compared to the undefeated teams, they fall behind a bit. Still plenty of time to get in the mix though.

#11 USC 261 points: Interesting, since they play this weekend against one another. Of my elite teams, I actually had USC ranked at the bottom at this period of time. This was out of my elite 8 teams, but after adding a few more teams on, I had to slide USC down even further. The margin of difference is slim, in fact they missed my top 10 by only 4 points, meaning this is by no means the end of the judgment.

#10 Cincinnati 265 points: This one is funny because I had them ranked much higher when I did the elite teams. But what may be showing is that even with a perfect record, Cincinnati still has to prove some things. Beating South Florida was their only mark, and it was a bottom 25 team. They need to run the tables to get real consideration and votes of confidence to play in that BCS Championship.

#9 TCU 271 points. Between ranks 6-11 only about 16 points separate these teams, meaning these are very close rankings. TCU has an advantage of 7 wins, but very slightly higher quality of wins and a good defense gives them some points as well. IF TCU runs the tables…are they for real?

#8 Penn State 273 points: The loss to Iowa hurts big time to Penn State, but they are only a handful of points off some better teams. Penn State can still make a game of this, if they can run the tables, but they would have to hope that Iowa loses a couple of times. Is it possible….who knows, but Penn State with a few more wins will be making a strong case for a one loss team.

#7 Pittsburgh 274 points: We see that this team is only one point better than Penn State, but that loss to NC State may have ruined a magical season. Like Cincinnati, this team suffers from a weaker schedule that could sooner catch up to them. Both Pittsburgh and Cincinnati are rooting for one another, so that when they play, it will mean much more than just two Big East teams playing one another…it could lead to a BCS Championship.

#6 Boise State 277 points: Even at 7-0 this team could be in trouble for slipping further down in the rankings. Even if Boise State continues to win, the quality of their wins against a weaker schedule could count against them…it clearly is the case with Utah, it could be the same for Boise State. So again, is wins the ONLY thing that counts? Nope, not if you want to be a champion.

#5 Florida 284 points: In light of the SEC officials and stuff going on, and with Florida playing with injured players, and the close games, this is still the team to beat. I have this team here because they are clearly one of the best teams, but now some wonder about the true strength of the SEC, if officials are playing to the “better teams”. Keep in mind that a couple of the teams ahead of Florida have an extra game under their belt, so it should all even out in the wash.

#4 Georgia Tech 287 points: This one is a BIG surprise to me folks, and considering how the ACC beats each other up, I don’t see this standing long, but to this point I think Georgia Tech is one of the best teams in the nation. If you cannot stop their triple option, you will lose. I thought for sure that this was a simplistic strategy that was years out of date, but Georgia Tech is proving that if teams don’t study for it, they will get beat by it. Georgia Tech in the BCS Championship? I think it is still too early, but don’t completely rule that out.

#2 Iowa 310 points: Now understand, Iowa is here because YES they have a perfect record, but also because they have one more game ahead of most other teams. That one game pulls a lot of points. They are only about 12 points ahead of Georgia Tech and Texas, so as those teams even out their schedule, it will tell us the true story. Iowa still has Ohio State on the schedule, which many circle as THE key game for the entire Big 10...if Iowa wins that…it will create some REAL controversy for the BCS Championships.

#1 Alabama 326 points: Everything I said about Iowa…goes for Alabama. They have an extra game ahead of the other teams, and they came within a shade of losing to Tennessee. Is this team REALLY as good as they say. I wasn’t too convinced last year, and they have the advantage of several good home game wins, and a schedule that at the moment is pretty tough, but when things shake out, as they usually do, I am not too sure this team will stay where it is. But for now, they are here.

So, those are my NEW BCS top 15, with Virginia Tech playing UNC tonight, we shall see if that changes any. A win for Virginia Tech could vault them close to the top 10...who knows?