2010 BCS Bowls

2010 BCS Bowls projections

I know I wrote on this earlier, but that was based on what was happening then… and oddly, after a week or so, not too much has changed, but that will DEFINIATELY change this weekend. So let’s talk on this for a bit.

Now, for those that don’t quite understand all about the BCS, I am right there with ya, but we can at least talk on some theories. I am not saying I know it all, but I am a big fan of college football, so we are in the same boat.

Now, to begin, let’s remember that there are FIVE bowls in the BCS. One is the National Championship, which takes the top two teams in the nation by BCS scores, and leaves the other four to at large teams, with some exceptions. We will get to that in a moment.

What is important to also know is the ORDER of the bowls for 2010, because the order determines who picks first. The first order is always the National Championship, but after that it differs. This year, 2010, the order is Orange Bowl, Fiesta Bowl and Sugar Bowl.

Notice something missing? Rose Bowl? That’s because the Rose Bowl isn’t interested in the BCS to mix their “tradition” with the others, they want to keep their Pac-10 and Big 10 rival cemented. So they are not “in the mix”, although they really are.

So, if we were to look at who was going to the BCS, and the other major bowls, lets first determine, at this very moment, who the top 12 teams are…because that is important:

In order, they are: Florida, Alabama, Texas, TCU, Cincinnati, Boise State and Georgia Tech. Following them are LSU, USC, Iowa, Ohio State and Pittsburgh. And for good measure, we throw in the next three, being Oregon, Miami and Houston.

From this list we can put together our theory about who will be going where. Now, even though we are using theory, we still have to make a slight assumption, one I will get to in a sec.

So let’s start first with the National Championship…who is going to the BCS Championship?

The natural assumption is to take the #1 and #2 teams, in this case being Florida and Alabama…but right off the bat this isn’t accurate. The problem is that both teams are from the SEC, and we all know that they must play each other in the SEC Championship… one team will lose, and fall out.

For the sake of argument let us assume that Florida wins, just the assumption that #1 beats #2. IF we go with that, then we can project Florida in the National Championship against the #3 team, Texas. Now, I know Texas still has to play in their Big 12 Championship just as Florida and Alabama must play in their conference championship but we are just going with the idea that those two SEC teams must eliminate one from the conversation. So the BCS Championship in theory would be Florida and Texas.

Now, after that, things get a little hairy.

Once the National Championship has been determined, a lot of clauses kick in, one being the Rose Bowl. The Rose Bowl gets to select their teams, and because they stick with their tradition, they will take the Pac-10 and Big 10 champions. But this can be misleading.

On the BCS rankings, they have Iowa as the best Big 10 team…but it is Ohio State that will be going to the Rose Bowl, which in theory knocks out the #10 team for the #11 team. This already creates some chaos because the idea in the BCS bowls was to get the top 10 teams in, and this has already been disrupted.

So Ohio State is in, bumping out Iowa. What about the Pac-10? Oregon finishes as the best team in the Pac-10, but USC is ranked at #9, while Oregon is ranked #13... Oh my.

So the Rose Bowl has, in theory, already screwed up the system, because two of the top 10 teams in the nation are snubbed initially for a BCS bowl. So let’s recap a bit:

BCS Championship #1 Florida vs. #3 Texas

Rose Bowl #11 Ohio State vs. #13 Oregon.

Hmm, sounds odd already.

Now, after those two bowls, we can get into the order of selections. Remember, this year the order is Orange, Fiesta and Sugar. So the Orange Bowl gets to select who they want in their bowl in Florida.

Now, just as the Rose Bowl must take the champions of the Pac-10 and Big-10, there are other contracts that must be upheld. The Orange Bowl has a contract with the ACC, meaning they MUST take the ACC Champion unless they are in the National Championship. Since neither Florida or Texas is an ACC team, that means they must take whoever wins the ACC Championship…which at this moment would be either Georgia Tech or Clemson.

Now this is interesting because even though Georgia Tech is ranked #7, Clemson is not on that top 15 list. It would be very embarrassing if a team NOT in the top 15 goes to a BCS bowl. For sake of argument, let us assume that the higher ranked team would win, in this case, Georgia Tech (just like we did the SEC Championship with Florida and Alabama). If this was the case, then Georgia Tech would go to the Orange Bowl because that is the contract with the ACC. It would then leave the Orange Bowl to have the first selection of the remaining teams.

To me, that gives them one of four realistic choices: Alabama, TCU, Cincinnati and Boise State. Once we get into any bowl outside of the National Championship, I think it comes do contracts and ticket sales. With that being the case, we also know that you stand a better chance most times in selling tickets if the teams are closer to the bowl. For that reason, I don’t think Boise State would go to the Orange Bowl…just too far to travel. The same could also be said for TCU to some degree. Would the Orange Bowl take Cincinnati…absolutely. How about Alabama? Absolutely! Either would be a great pick, but the charm of being undefeated might mean more dollars than a nearby SEC school. So I think the Orange Bowl might take a Georgia Tech/ Cincinnati matchup. That means you have a #5 vs. a #7...which isn’t that bad.

That leaves two bowls left, and the Fiesta Bowl has next shot.

With the Fiesta Bowl in Arizona, and with the next two picks, there are a few things this bowl has to keep in mind. One, they have a contractual obligation to the Big 12 conference, and they have to look at location, just like the Orange Bowl. But one of the clauses kicks in here, in that IF a Big 12 team is in the National Championship, then the Fiesta Bowl is free to select any other team. And since Texas, a Big 12 team, is in the championship (as per our theory) that leaves the Fiesta Bowl to take two teams.

So in theory, they could take the two highest ranked teams left, which would be TCU, a one loss Alabama, or Boise State. Now immediately you might think that pitting TCU and Boise State would be simplicity, but I beg to differ. Granted this would be a good game, but we saw that game last year. To sell tickets, the bowl may need to give the fans a unique game, not one just held a year ago. Heck, some people got tired of the USC/Ohio State games, so it makes some sense.

I think TCU has the inside track for the Fiesta Bowl, and it would be against either Boise State or Alabama. For sake of not getting a repeat, I think that the Fiesta Bowl would entertain the TCU/Alabama game because it puts a non BCS against a top ranked BCS school…but the temptation to have two undefeated teams could sway them to go with TCU/Boise State. Personally, I think they will drop Boise State for Alabama.

So let’s recap again:

BCS National Championship #1 Florida vs. #3 Texas…
(theory being if Alabama loses and Texas wins, Texas will be #2)

Orange Bowl ACC Champion Georgia Tech (7) vs. #5 Cincinnati (Big East Champs)
(theory being if GA Tech beats Clemson and Cincinnati beats Pittsburgh)

Rose Bowl #11 Ohio State (Big 10 Champs) vs. #13 Oregon (Pac 10 Champs)

Fiesta Bowl #4 TCU (Mountain West Champs) vs. Alabama (SEC Runner up)

That brings us to the final BCS Bowl, the Sugar Bowl. They get the last two picks, but they have a clause too. They must, by contract, take the SEC Champion, but since Florida is the SEC Champs and in the BCS Championships, they are free to take two teams, just like the Fiesta Bowl.

If things go like we discussed, then the highest ranked team still available would be Boise State. For sake of having an undefeated team, the Sugar Bowl will take them… but there may be a question to how well Boise State travels. I mean, New Orleans isn’t a hop, skip and jump away. But still, it is a logical choice of the remaining teams.

So who will the Boise State Broncos play?

There are still several choices based on the remaining teams on that top 15 ranking, but right off the bat, we can eliminate Houston. Just not strong enough to make a good matchup with Boise State. This leaves LSU, USC, Iowa, Pittsburgh and Miami.

The logical choice is by far LSU, but this brings in another clause…one that prevents LSU from playing in New Orleans. By rule, no conference can put in more than two teams out of their own conference in the BCS Bowls. Remember that LSU is a SEC school…so are Florida and Alabama. This means that in theory, LSU would not, COULD NOT, play in the Sugar Bowl.

That leaves USC, which is probably too far to travel. Then you may have to look at Iowa, Pittsburgh and Miami. If we can assume that Cincinnati is undefeated, then it also means they beat Pittsburgh, which knocks them out of the picture. So this leaves Boise State to play either Iowa or Miami…which would sell more tickets?

Iowa is ranked #10, and Miami currently #14, so that might be the choice, but who travels better? Better traveling means more ticket sales. I think the Big 10 does well in traveling, after all, if they can get to Pasadena, they can surely get to New Orleans. I think Iowa plays Boise State in the Sugar Bowl.

So there you have it, the 10 teams selected in the BCS bowls. Of the top 10 teams, LSU and USC will miss out, and will play in lesser bowls. We shall see. Remember, all this is theory at the moment, just to give you an idea of how this might work out. The truth comes this weekend when many of these teams play their conference championships and final regular season games…