Cincinnati vs Rutgers

Cincinnati vs. Rugters

Sounds like a good conference matchup to me.

In less than 2 hours I will be watching this game on ESPN, and I wanted to take a moment to reflect on who has the better chance of winning today. I heard talk about how Rutgers might be the team to beat in the Big East, but I also remember that Cincinnati had 11 wins last year…including a 13-10 victory over said Rutgers.

But what also is going to be important is the fact that no Big East team was ranked in the top 25...what a slap in the face to the conference! So today’s game will be a strong signal to the true power (or lack of) from the Big East. Let’s look at each team and see who may come out victorious:

Cincinnati finished last year 11-3, losing to Oklahoma, UCONN and Virginia Tech. Some may wonder the true strength of the Bearcats since the schedule seemed questionable, outside of Oklahoma. Playing Eastern Kentucky, Miami (OH), Akron and Marshall does not really make for a BCS powerhouse, but beating South Florida, West Virginia, Pittsburgh and Rutgers does count for something.

Returning many offensive weapons makes it easier to repeat the successes of last year, but the schedule this year may be more challenging. Only one conference foe in the first 5 games, this game is incredibly important for the Bearcats. They won’t see another conference foe until mid October, and with opponents like Oregon State and Fresno State on the schedule, they need to come out of this at BEST 3-2, maybe even 4-1. A loss here to Rutgers could make the conference spin out again, looking for a true leader.

When you consider that each of Cincinnati’s wins were on average about 8 to 9 points, it shows that they play close games…how easy can that change in one year with the same opponents. Cincinnati seems to have problems winning away games too, in fact, two of their three losses were…away. Add in the bowl game vs. VA Tech, and you see my point.

And of those wins, factor in a 2 point win over Akron, a 3 point win over West Virginia, an 8 point win over Louisville and a 5 point win over Hawaii…these are games that can easily turn on you, and playing Rutgers in their house could be problematic.

Rugters, on the other hand, won 8 games last year, after starting out 0-3 and was as bad as1-5 before they started to turn it around. Losing at home to Fresno State and UNC ended any BCS hopes early, and a loss to Navy at home crushed it. The Scarlet Knights also lose their veteran QB, and a few receivers, so there is a time for retooling for Rutgers. The claim is that with 13 starters returning (initially) there is a good chance for Rutgers to snatch the Big East crown. And coming off a 7 game winning streak, including wins over Connecticut, South Florida and NC State in a bowl does have an upswing.

Of all those wins, the Pittsburgh win seemed most impressive, winning away by 20 points at a score of 54-34. Many of the other wins seemed less than stellar, after all, beating Syracuse, Army and UCONN didn’t really convince many people of the power of a Scarlet Knight. And with Louisville having a terrible season, and ACC foe NC State not putting fear in many, some will question if Rutgers is really ready to take the crown.

But the conference itself may even out, as many question the strength of any team in the Big East…again, NO Big East team has been ranked, so the voters must believe that none of these teams is strong enough to contend for a serious BCS title. It almost seems that by default, somebody has to win the Big East. But it cannot be argued that Rutgers and Cincinnati are quality teams.

Rutgers indeed has the home field advantage, but one can quickly counter by saying that last year Rutgers started the season off with a home loss to Fresno State 24-7, then got thumped by UNC 44-12 in their own living room. This is a situation Rutgers cannot repeat, scoring only 19 points in the first two games. Looking at Rutger’s schedule, if they can get by Cincinnati, it is quite possible that this could be the banner year they once had a couple years ago with great running back Ray Rice.

IF (a big if) Rutgers can beat Cincinnati, their next few games include Howard, Florida International before a trip to Maryland. Three home games before they go on the road, then after Maryland they are home for Texas Southern and Pittsburgh, a team they beat away by 20...

You can see the possibilities here for Rutgers. Yes they lost to Cincinnati and West Virginia last year, but those were away games…this year they are home. IF Rutgers can get past Cincinnati, this could quite easily be a 9+ win season, maybe even 10, as the Scarlet Knights would become the heir apparent to the Big East.

So who wins? Home field advantage means so much to any college team, and you’d like to automatically favor Rutgers, but we saw how they lost their first 2 home games last year. And if they are looking past this game in hopes of a 10 win season, something that is quite possible, then they may fail their first test.

It’s like legendary wrestler Ric Flair once said, “in order to BE the man, you gotta BEAT the man”, and that “man”, is actually a Bearcat.

Cincinnati beat Rutgers by three, can they do the same in Rutger’s house? This one is really close to me, and I personally like both teams, but without the leadership at the quarterback position, I just have to favor Cincinnati by a slim margin. One possession might make the difference…maybe even one point.