Alabama Football and the BCS

Alabama Football and the BCS

There’s a lot of whining going on about whether Alabama should have been the #1 team in the nation after a bye week, and Texas jumping over them to take the #1 spot. I watched “Around the Horn” and “Pardon The Interruption” (two of my favorite shows) and listened to the opinions. It amazed me at how there seemed to be two sides.

Folks…what does it matter? Whether you are #1 or #2, if the season ended today, you are still in. Stop whining!

But now the questions become a little more interesting. CAN Alabama actually go undefeated? That’s a hard question, so let’s take a moment to look at that.

Alabama started out the season defeating #9 ranked Clemson, who has since then taken a nosedive and may not even make it to a bowl. You’d have to question the strength of Alabama but you cannot fault them for beating a team that wasn’t as good as all the hype.

Ok, so they’re 1-0 and looking impressive, although now you’d have to wonder about whether they beat a good team, or a team that was bogus to the top 25.

Game two against Tulane, a team that had a losing record last year, and apparently will continue that trend this year. Beating a current 2-4 team by 14 points AT home isn’t really as impressive as you’d like, but again, you cannot blame the team for beating the teams on their schedule. So now Alabama is 2-0.

Another home game vs. Western Kentucky and a big win 41-7 and now Alabama is looking decent at 3-0. But Western Kentucky is 2-5, and you really have to wonder if Alabama is good, or taking advantage of a soft schedule.

This sounds like I am picking at Alabama, but we’re talking about NATIONAL Champions here, so we have to determine if this team really is ready for that spotlight. I mean, at this moment, let’s call it what it is…Alabama has been fortunate to win these games while the other teams have been losing big time games. Are we looking at a legitimate team, or just one holding the #2 spot for awhile?

Alabama goes on the road and defeats Arkansas 49-14, an impressive SEC win against a mid card team. But Arkansas is 3-3 and was questionable in strength until they defeated Auburn recently. Perhaps there is some cred to this Alabama team after all. Now you’d have to at least say they are a decent team.

Then comes the shocker…kicking Georgia’s behind in their own home 41-30. Georgia was ranked as high as #3 in a poll, some had them #1, so now you really have to look at this game and say that Alabama is a GOOD team.

But Georgia’s got a much tougher schedule coming up, playing 3 ranked teams in a row. What if they fail that test and slip 5-4 or 6-3? Alabama actually needs Georgia to play well to justify their win, if they fall off the map like Clemson, it will dilute their strength. Time will tell how that part of the story makes out.

Then there’s Kentucky, and the narrow 3 point win Alabama got in their house. Kentucky just a couple of weeks ago was sitting near the top with an undefeated record, but I blogged about how soft that schedule was, and they have since lost their last 2 games. I can see Kentucky losing 4 more games before the season is over.

So that brings us to where we are now…is Alabama the real thing? Should they have been worth the #1 ranking? My answer is no. And again, the truth to this is the simple fact that right now it does not matter. If this was the end of the season, they would be in the National Championship anyway, so what does it matter whether they are #1 or #2?

The real debate is, can they stay there.

Of the teams Alabama has played, Georgia seems a lock to a bowl, Kentucky SHOULD be able to get one. The others…maybe not. Of the games that Alabama has to play, it could be the same. Mississippi is their next target, a team that just knocked off Florida…this could be a trap for Alabama, but I’ll give the Crimson Tide the victory because they are home. Unless Mississippi turns it up a notch, they might not go to a bowl either.

An away game at a VERY desperate Tennessee team could be a coin toss. Yeah, Tennessee is having a tough year, but 100,000 people in that stadium could give the Volunteers everything to play for. If Tennessee is to go to a bowl this year, this might the game that determines if they can even qualify…this game is serious.

Alabama has an easy game vs. Arkansas State at home before the big game vs. LSU. This away game means everything to both teams. It means redemption for LSU with that whipping they got from Florida, and it is a statement game for Alabama. THIS is the game everyone is circling on the calendar as the big one. But it will be interesting to see if they can get here undefeated. Can they?

If so, they finish the season at home vs. Mississippi State and Auburn, two teams having troubles too. How important is that LSU game? If LSU wins, and both teams finish even in the division, LSU wins on the tie breaker. I think LSU may take that game, and may control the division by the end of the year. Even if Alabama gets through the season untouched, they’d have to face Florida in the SEC Championship. Either way, nobody survives from the SEC without a loss.

So what does this mean for Alabama? It means a fall late in the season hurts much more than a loss early. Southern Cal and Ohio State still have a chance to get back in the picture, while a loss for Alabama could cut their hopes. And considering the strength of their schedule, the opponents of Alabama might see 3 or 4 bowls…that kinda strength of schedule might show up in the BCS poll.

The ONLY way Alabama is going to get to the National Championship is to win everything…the entire SEC and the Championship. But I am just not that convinced that they can. Nobody gets through the SEC without a loss, and Alabama is no exception.

Right now, 13 teams are at this very second, qualified for a bowl with 6 Division I wins, and Alabama is one of them. They are going bowling, but somehow I just don’t see them in the National Championship…unless they sweep, and that isn’t something I can wager on.