New Orleans Bowl 2009

R & L Carriers New Orleans Bowl

Southern Miss vs. Middle Tennessee State

So we have a showdown with the Sun Belt Conference and the Conference USA. Interesting.

This is actually pretty interesting because the record of these two teams is 16-6, for an average of an 8-3 mark…not bad for a bowl that is lowly ranked. But let’s look at the tales of the tape of these teams and see what is real, and what is not.

Southern Miss comes out of the CUSA with a 7-5 record, while Middle Tennessee State has an impressive 9-3 mark. But let’s explore those numbers and see what’s what.

Southern Miss is still trying to get back into the national spotlight after running out their head coach a few years ago, because they weren’t winning like they wanted to… somebody remind me how many National Championships Southern Miss has won…none? I thought so. Southern Miss alumni reminds me a lot of Nebraska and Notre Dame alumni where they feel like if they can’t get their way right now, they want heads to roll. Nebraska has paid for their impatience with years in the cellar, Notre Dame is there now and Southern Miss has been forgotten like old newspaper.

Southern Miss has two decent wins from the start, with wins over Central Florida and Virginia. But Virginia has been in the dumps and UCF has not been a national threat. And beating the basement teams of Conference USA hardly qualifies as a powerhouse. It might be safe to say that perhaps all of their 7 wins, minus UCF was based on a weak schedule.

Everything looked fine when they went 3-0, but all those games were at home, the next three games, vs. then #20 Kansas, UAB and Louisville, quickly evened the record. Beating Memphis and Tulane got them to the 5 win mark, which is about how many wins those teams had combined this year. A loss at then #18 Houston and then a win over average Marshall gave them a 6-4 record. Beating a 5-win Tulsa team and losing to ECU gives them the record they have now. So what have we learned?

Southern Miss is an average team in an average conference. Outside of beating Marshall, all their losses come on the road, and their wins against less than average teams. Simply put, they beat the lesser foes, and struggle against the good ones…especially on the road. So is Middle Tennessee a good team, an average or less than average?

Sadly, many right off the bat put the Sun Belt Conference as the weakest in the division. While the WAC and Mountain West sport the “BCS Buster” phrases, the Sun Belt is far from such grand claims. But let’s look at MTSU and see what we have.

Only two teams in the Sun Belt had winning seasons, so you can assume that MTSU was able to sop up with the bottom feeders, especially with Western Kentucky winning no games, and North Texas winning two all year. But it’s the first 6 games of the season that is interesting. Middle Tennessee loses the first game to Clemson, which is not bad at all, after all, Clemson played in the ACC Championship game vs. Georgia Tech. This is not a bad loss.

Afterwards they beat Memphis…a Conference USA team, before beating ACC team Maryland. Folks, for a Sun Belt team, this is very good, and shows a strong team in this conference. A win over hapless North Texas gave way to two losses back to back, against Sun Belt Conference Champs Troy, and SEC foe Mississippi State. Think about that folks, this team played to ACC teams, one SEC team and a Conference USA team. Not bad at all.

The rest of the schedule isn’t too important, because outside of LA-Monroe, all the other teams had a losing record. Even LA-Mon was 6-6. But you have to give credit to this team for bulking up their schedule.

How will this translate against a tougher CUSA foe in Southern Miss? I think this game means more to MTSU by a long shot than to Southern Miss, and we may have missed the boat on this team. Nobody seemed to care that they were 9-3, because nobody from the Sun Belt has threatened the BCS. But this team has beaten some quality names like Maryland and Memphis. They CAN beat you. Southern Miss has wins over Central Florida and Virginia, so they can beat names too.

I think at first glance you will favor Southern Miss, simply because most Sun Belt teams don’t get much respect, but I would not be surprised if there was an upset here. My head says Southern Miss will win by a touchdown, maybe even 10 points… but I gotta wonder, can Middle Tennessee State steal one…they have played tough enough talent to do so. We shall see…..