How many bowl seats left for college football?

Last seats for a bowl game

As of Thursday, November 20th, 2008, I counted 61 teams in the Division I, or FBS, that are now eligible for a bowl. I also count 34 different bowls, meaning there is room for 68 teams to enjoy a post season game. If I do the math, that means at this very moment, there is room for 7 more teams to qualify for a bowl, out of the almost 120 teams in the FBS.

That means there is seven more seats on this train to post seasonville, who wants a ticket?

Before we talk about who can get it, let’s first clear out who ain’t getting it. There are about 32 teams that no longer qualify for a bowl, meaning that there are about 26 teams left out there to fight for those precious 7 spots.

Hmmm, interesting. That means in most cases the record of the teams that have yet to qualify, but also are not DISqualified would be somewhere along the lines of 4-6, 5-5 or 6-4. Let’s take a look at some of these teams by conference and see what their chances are to make a bowl…if at all.

ACC: I made a blog awhile back on how this was the only conference that has the possibility of putting EVERY team in post season, or at least having a .500 or better record. That is still very true, as 4 teams are still in the hunt. NC State saved themselves with a big win, but with games vs. ranked UNC and ranked Miami, all it takes is one loss to end the season. Both Clemson and Virginia are 5-5, and this weekend’s game is huge because the winner qualifies for a bowl, IF the Citadel and South Carolina State games count for Clemson. If not, the Tigers must win their last two games against Virginia and South Carolina, or they are out. Virginia needs one more win, if the Richmond game counts, to make it to post season, and they can get it from either Clemson or VA Tech.

And then there is Duke, who needs to win their last two to qualify, but beating either UNC or VA Tech is not good news, and it looks like their time is coming to an end. I think one more team, likely Virginia, can become bowl eligible here.

Big 12: Only Colorado sits in limbo, trying to make it to a post season bowl. At 5-6, they need one more win to qualify…unfortunately it is against Nebraska. Granted that is not like the end of their season, but this is a game they must have. Can Colorado win this game and qualify? They are 0-4 on away games….that might be your answer.

Big East: Rutgers and Louisville have yet to qualify, and both teams are 5-5, meaning they have a pretty good chance to make it in the post season. With Rutgers having a 4-2 record in the conference, the chances seem greater for them than with 1-4 Louisville. But for either team, one more win is what they need. With Rutgers riding a 4-game winning streak, and playing Army, this ought to be the win they need. If not, it would come down to them and Louisville in their final game. For Louisville, they face two tough opponents in West Virginia and Rutgers. I can’t see how they can beat BOTH, but it is possible for them to beat one of them. It is quite likely they can qualify, along with Rutgers.

Big 10: Illinois is the lone remaining team that still has to fight to qualify for a bowl, at 5-6. With their biggest win of the year over hapless Michigan, and many embarrassing losses, it will be hard to see if Illinois can defeat Northwestern, who is having a pretty good year. Winning only one game away, this might be an uphill battle for them, and it is possible they may not qualify for a bowl.

A pause to note that we have identified 8 teams thus far, and of those, I think one more will qualify out of the ACC, and likely two from the Big East. I just don’t think the Big 12 or Big 10 will put any more in the post season. If that is true, then we have 3 seats filled, making a total of 64 teams…four seats remain.

Conference USA: This conference actually has four teams trying to make the post season. Yet here is a problem, with four teams already qualified, how deep can this conference really go in the bowls? For example, the ACC had 9 slots promised to them, but can Conference USA be so favored? Marshall is the most desperate team, at 4-6 they cannot afford another loss. But with games vs. the two best teams in the West Division, those being Rice and Tulsa, you can pretty much mark them out of post season.

That leaves Southern Miss, at 5-6, who MUST win their last game against SMU…well, that seems like a gimmie. Let’s assume Southern Mississippi wins, that still leaves Memphis and UTEP, both at 5-5. Memphis draws Central Florida, which isn’t a bad team, and finally Tulane, which should not be too much of a problem. I see Memphis splitting the two, but still qualifying. UTEP has Houston and ECU, both teams with a winning record. I think Memphis has a better chance of making it to a bowl than UTEP, if I had to choose one or the other, I’d have to take Memphis. So I think two more teams out of Conference USA can qualify.

Mid-American Conference: Two teams from this conference still have time to qualify: Bowling Green and Akron, both at 5-5. I think even if one or both qualify, they still may not go bowling if there is an abundance of FBS teams. But let’s see if they CAN qualify. Bowling Green has Buffalo and Toledo, the mix of a strong team and a weak team. If you can split it down the middle, then we can all agree that Bowling Green can get in the post season. Akron has it easier, playing Ohio and Temple, and could beat both.

But this plot goes a bit deeper. Both Bowling Green and Akron are fighting for the MAC Championship, and could get an extra game in the conference championship game. Akron would need a lot of help since they are in third, and have lost to the two ahead of them. Bowling Green needs to beat Buffalo, so that will be a huge game. But of these two teams, I can see both Akron and Bowling Green winning enough to qualify for a bowl.

Now, another pause, as we have now identified 14 teams, and of that I think four more teams can qualify, two from the MAC and two from CUSA. Technically that means all the seats are filled, but that isn’t very true. Just because we have the seats filled does not mean these teams will take those seats. There is still more to be decided.

Pac-10: Stanford, UCLA and Arizona State still vie to make it to the post season. Of these teams, UCLA and Arizona State are in trouble, needing 2 wins. And ironically enough, UCLA and Arizona State play this weekend, with the loser being knocked out. Both teams are 4-6 and cannot afford another loss, but one will get one. And IF Arizona State wins, they must play Arizona and win to qualify. IF UCLA wins, they must play USC…and we KNOW that won’t be good. It is quite possible that neither of these teams will qualify. But what of Stanford? With one game left, they face California to determine if they can go to a bowl or not. This will be a very tough game to call, and we’d like to think that maybe they can give Cal a run for their money, but I think it will be a stretch for Stanford to qualify. I didn’t say it was impossible, I said it would be a stretch. So I can’t see any of these teams qualifying for a bowl.

SEC: Arkansas and Auburn are in the last legs of their journey, trying to buy time for an extra game after the regular season is over. For both teams, a loss ends the season. For Arkansas, a 4-6 record means they MUST win out, meaning wins over Mississippi State and LSU…maybe they can win one, but not both. Auburn is 5-6 and must win just to qualify, but have only one game left….unfortunately, that last game is against Alabama, the number one team in the nation. Everything hangs on this huge game…I won’t doubt that Auburn CAN beat them, but I am not sure if they can.

Sun Belt: This little-known conference has FIVE teams that can still qualify for a bowl…but who are we kidding? They might put 3 in at best. Middle Tennessee State must win their last two games to qualify, one against lowly North Texas. While that should be an easy win, they must also play LA-Lafayette. It would be hard to expect them to win two, so I might rule them out. But the way the Sun Belt goes, it is almost even for the top 5 or 6 teams, so who can really tell?

Arkansas State actually has 3 games left, so must win 2 of three. With one being against North Texas, and one being against the top team in the Sun Belt (Troy), you can split the difference. The game vs. Florida Atlantic will be the deciding factor, and again, this is hard to call. Speaking of Florida Atlantic, they are 5-5 with two games remaining, those being Florida International and Arkansas State. Again, with a conference so tight, you might just play it safe and split it down the middle. That means we can have 3 more teams from the Sun Belt qualifying for a bowl.

Florida International is another of those 4-5 teams that must face LA-Monroe, Florida Atlantic and Western Kentucky, needing to win 2 of those three games. It could come down to the WKU game, a 2-9 team that might just help Florida International to become bowl eligible. That leaves LA-Lafayette, with a 5-5 record, needing one win out of two remaining games. They have Troy and Middle Tennessee State, so again, we might be looking at a split. If so, the Sun Belt could possibly provide SIX teams, but we know they won’t all get in, so it might be about who has the BEST record outside of the Sun Belt Champion.

MWC: Colorado State and UNLV are left with a single game to win to qualify for a bowl, both are 5-6 and need that win like Scooby Doo needs a Scooby snack. Colorado State has a good chance because they play Wyoming who is currently 4-7, while UNLV must face San Diego State, which is even worse at 1-10. You can pretty much put two more teams into post season eligibility. And when you consider that this conference has tough teams like Air Force, Utah, BYU and TCU, this could make Colorado State and UNLV attractive to some low-level bowl.

WAC: And finally there is Hawaii, amazing how much a year changes things. With three games left, and with a 5-5 record, they need to win at least six games to qualify. With games vs. Idaho, Washington State and Cincinnati, all at home, they can easily qualify with two wins. I think they will get that, but it is a FAR cry from one year ago, when they shocked the nation.

So, that brings us to 27 teams I have identified that can become bowl eligible. We know they won’t all qualify, and as we said at the top there is only about 7 spots available. I believe of those 27, I can see about 12 teams qualifying, but several coming from the Sun Belt. This means that the bowls will have all the teams they need to fill all those bowls, and will probably be enticed to add yet ANOTHER new bowl next year. As I see it, there may be 6 to 8 teams that may qualify, but not play.

We’ll see how this all plays out.