Oregon vs Boise State

Oregon vs. Boise State

WOW, a big time matchup already!

A lot of things will be answered in the first game of the college football season. It will tell us how strong Oregon will be in the Pac 10, and it will tell us if Boise State will become the proverbial “thorn in the side” for the entire season.

This is THE game to watch, even though I will be watching the South Carolina vs. NC State game (local game for us). But if this is on tv, you best believe I got my eyes on it.

One could wonder, which is better if you had to call it before the season started. I mean, Oregon finished 10-3 while Boise State finished 12-1. This one game is going to set the stage for a lot of action in the Pac 10 and the nation. So let’s take a look at these two powerhouses and try to figure out who just might be the winner tonight.

We’ll start with Boise State, since they have home field advantage. That alone is a major factor, since they don’t lose at home. The Smurf Turf has been pretty good to the Broncos ( I bet Denver wishes they were there), and this Boise State team has made a very good living off of it. Papa Smurf would be proud.

Boise State started off knocking off Idaho State, then Bowling Green before the big win at Oregon to go 3-0. To many, this was really the only obstacle to keep Boise State from going undefeated. Most thought that the only real chance of them being beaten was possibly by Fresno State. Many people saw the WAC as a sub-par conference, where only one great team can really make noise in the BCS. It seemed that only Nevada would give Boise State any run for their money as the Broncos stampeded through the conference.

But the party ended when they faced TCU, losing by 1 point, 17-16.

Is Boise State credible, or are they a good team coming out of a softer conference? This year’s schedule is not much different, but they do play Miami (OH), and they return the favor of playing Bowling Green away from the blue turf. IF Boise State defeats Oregon tonight, then we could very well be looking at a repeat performance, but the strength of schedule will weight the Broncos down as some will argue that a true champion faces tougher opponents. They play UC Davis…why? Miami (OH)? Why? They were 2-10 last year!

This makes a strong argument against Boise State because in order to really get in that BCS, you have to schedule tougher opponents. On big opponent a year won’t cut it. But this is the first game…anything is possible for now.

Oregon comes in with a strong record in the Pac-10, beating Washington, Utah State and Purdue by a combined total of over 135 points. The problem was, those foes weren’t very tough last year. It seemed that they were brought to reality in the game vs. Boise State, losing only by 5 points, 37-32...but losing nevertheless.

They would lose big to USC and once more to California before beating Oklahoma State in a bowl 42-31. Considering they lost to USC, Boise State and California, that isn’t such a bad trio to lose to, if you HAVE to lose.

This year Oregon has to play two teams from underdog conferences, and they better be ready for them. The Boise State game is just the first game of the season, they also face Utah shortly afterwards, then California after that. Consider folks, of the Ducks first 4 games, three are very strong opponents. They face Southern Cal much later, but the tone will be set by then. We will know much about the Oregon Ducks long before they face USC.

So, who has the advantage? Oregon claims to be a powerful offense, but with a QB with 13 interceptions last year, this will be interesting. And playing AT Boise State, this could be problematic. Oregon NEEDS this win like I need a slice of hot and steamy pizza with all the trimmings….

(pizza….)

But Boise State simply MUST have this win to stay in the picture. If they lose this game, and win all the others, it won’t matter. To them, THIS is the biggest game of the regular season. I might believe they are out to prove a point, and they could very well do that this year. But losing some valuable seniors might be the one flaw that might cost them that BCS shot….

Who do I have? I think Boise State, by the slimmest of margins, can win, by 2 points. We’ll see.