Should Notre Dame start out as #23?

Should Notre Dame be #23?

Here is an interesting question that a lot of college football fans may be asking; Does Notre Dame deserve to be ranked in the top 25?

This is a legit question because the preseason rankings should reflect who the best 25 college football teams are in the nation. And it is all speculative, based on what “experts” think will happen.

But a huge part of that is based off last year’s success too, and for that reason, we have to start there. The question we have to address is, does Notre Dame deserve to be on the top 25, at #23?

We start from last year.

The Fighting Irish finished last year with a 7-6 record, capped off with a huge win in Hawaii over…well…Hawaii. Notre Dame started the season beating San Diego State 21-13...San Diego would finish the season 2-10.

Notre Dame would then have a “big name” matchup with Michigan, winning 35-17, but we all saw how terrible Michigan’s season was, ending up with a 3-9 record. To this point, Notre Dame’s 2-0 record comprised of teams who would finish the season 5-19.

Why is this important? Because to be a top 25 teams, it is more than wins, you have to be good teams, teams that you can hang your hat on. You can go 11-0 or 12-0 and seem like a great team, but if you have not played real competition, how then can you be seen as a top 25 team?

Let’s continue…

In an away game, Notre Dame loses to Michigan State 23-7, but rebounds against Purdue, winning 38-21. Michigan State was indeed a good team, but the Irish did not beat them. Purdue however, was 4-8.

Stanford was the next opponent for Notre Dame, giving the Irish a 4-1 record and starting to look like a top 25 caliber. But Stanford would finish 5-7. So to this point, Notre Dame has 4 wins against teams with losing records, and their lone loss was to a team that was above par.

This is what a lot of voters miss when they vote for the top 25, lots of times it turns out to be a popularity contest, not one where the best teams qualify. Now I will admit, 4-1 is a very good record, and with it being still early, it could be possible for Notre Dame to get a ranking out of this, but many would question the level of talent they are playing.

The next game was in Chapel Hill, losing to UNC 29-24. The Tarheels would go on to an 8-5 record as Notre Dame now slips to 4-2. But they would make up for it the next game, by playing Washington and winning big 33-7, to up the record to 5-2.

And that looks fine, but Washington finished the season 0-12.

So again, strength of schedule has to apply somewhere. Notre Dame has 5 wins, but none against teams that are average. They have two losses to teams with better than .500 records. This would be further complicated when they lost their next two games to Pittsburgh and Boston College, both winning teams at the end of the season, both winning 9 games.

The first credible win of the year comes when they beat Navy 27-21 to get their record to 6-4, but loses an embarrassing game to Syracuse 24-23 to make the record 6-5. They take the hit from Southern Cal to finish the regular season and as mentioned before, beat Hawaii.

When you look back at this, only two games give Notre Dame any credibility as being a top 25 team…beating Navy and Hawaii, but with a 7-6 record, it hardly screams of a major power in the NCAA. Yet from then to now, the voters have put the Irish in the top 25, at #23. A lot of this is based on speculation that the players that were there last year will play better this year. I won’t argue that, because that applies theoretically to ANY team, but the speculation is also clouded by preconceived thoughts of the schedule.

This year, Notre Dame starts the season against Nevada, then goes TO Michigan, home for Michigan State and away at Purdue. With 7 home games, this plays to the Irish’s favor. Add to this that Michigan State might be the only obstacle early on, and you can see how Notre Dame can be 3-1 after the first 4 games.

The next three games are at home, where they will invite Washington, Southern Cal and Boston College to their confines. The key game is that USC game, but Boston College has a recent advantage over Notre Dame. It is possible that the Irish could come out of this 4-3, or even 5-2 before traveling to Washington State to pick up another win against a team that won 2 games last year.

Notre Dame ends the season home against Navy, on the road at Pittsburgh, home against UCONN and across the country at Stanford. Notre Dame could possibly win all these games, but outside of Pittsburgh, the strength of schedule could be argued. For sake of the argument, I will say that the Fighting Irish will win 3 games out of the final four.

This means by the end of the year, Notre Dame could have a 8-3 record, and likely an invite to a BCS bowl. But is this a strong schedule? I mean, Notre Dame ought to be able to schedule any team it wants, and most teams would jump at the chance to play them, whether home or away… is this just a time to pad up numbers and put lipstick on the proverbial pig?

Granted Boston College, with 9 wins last year would indeed be a good win to take.

Navy is a pretty decent team, so I can’t argue a win against them either.

Nevada is average at best, and to me, if Notre Dame beats them, it does not make them much better.

Of the Big East teams, I think UCONN is a little overrated but a good team. I can’t argue Pittsburgh either, but also add to this that many people felt the Big East overall, was weak. Should Notre Dame beat both, I can’t argue it.

Of the Big 10 teams, only Michigan State is credible. Beating Michigan and Purdue would not really make Notre Dame seem so much better, unless both teams make some serious moves upward this year, as opposed to last year.

And of the Pac-10 teams, we know how good USC is, but Washington, Washington State and Stanford collectively had 7 wins…it would hardly qualify to me as big wins if Notre Dame wins those.

So overall, I think Notre Dame’s schedule is average. If you beat USC, then you are in the mix, but nobody sees that happening. So the question comes back, is Notre Dame WORTH the top 25 ranking?

If it is indeed based on last years performance and what carries over to this year, I guess I could see them maybe #25, or just off the radar. I clearly don’t see them as one of the elite teams, but the soft schedule just might buy them a BCS bowl. They have the schedule to get there, and I personally see them winning either 7 or 8 games. If they don’t win 8 or more, they won’t be considered in the BCS, but if they get 8, it just might be possible.

We have a whole season to see how this pans out, but the voters have spoken. Notre Dame IS one of the top 25 teams…but can they keep it?