Why TCU and Boise State again?

Why TCU and Boise State again?

You know, I don’t really get this bowl, why would the Fiesta Bowl take TCU and Boise State when they played last year. To me this does not make a lot of sense, but after some thought I did think about why they would do that.

Since the Fiesta Bowl is in Arizona, it makes sense to get the closest teams to ensure good ticket sales. TCU is of course in Texas, and Boise State is in Idaho, not too far from Arizona, so it makes sense to make this matchup.

A second idea is that these two teams are undefeated, and that alone ought to make for a good game, no doubt if you put these two undefeated teams together, it will draw a lot of attention. But outside of that, the rest of the logic makes no sense at all.

Folks, the BCS needed to make some attempt to show that they were willing to let the non BCS teams have some shot at an argument, but they completely dropped the ball on this one. Why would you put these two teams, who already played each other LAST YEAR, in the same bowl?

I personally felt that TCU got the shaft, because they deserve a better team than Boise State. Not spitting on BSU, because an undefeated team is a good one, but TCU has more of an argument than Boise State. I felt that TCU should play Florida, or maybe Cincinnati. For the Fiesta Bowl to put two non BCS teams together just did not make sense at all.

But again, it does make sense because of locale. Of the top 8 teams, these were the two closest to each other to get to Arizona. Many people seem to forget that after the National Championship is determined, the rest of the bowls have certain protocol and business goals they must meet…which of course means making money.

There are a lot of people split on how this should have been done, some think a playoff would have solved this but I am not really sure about this. I think there ought to be a Mountain West vs. WAC championship game anyway, and the winner ought to get strong consideration for a BCS Championship if they are undefeated. Does TCU deserve consideration… I think so. Does Boise State…I am not too sure. There is no question that of the undefeated left in the nation, that including Alabama, Texas, TCU, Cincinnati and Boist State, that BSU was the least of them….don’t tell me that warrants a playoffs.

And while we are on this, I saw some person talking about having a 16 team playoff…that is insane. Folks, when was the LAST TIME you saw a #16 ranked team that had a legit shot for a National Championship? That is foolish. I am not a big fan for playoffs, because nobody is considering the guidelines of such. Even now, we see that the playoff format isn’t satisfactory, since the NCAA is considering broadening the 65 teams in Basketball to 96...proving that a playoff format still does not solve the problem.

To me, IF you had to have a playoff, I think it should be of 4 teams… very rarely in the history of the NCAA was there in issue of some team ranked #8, #10 or #12 that had a legit shot at the National Title…so don’t start making that in issue.

So TCU and Boise State is in the top 6, to me if you want to determine the National Champs, round the corners of the conferences. ACC, Big 12, SEC all have conference championships, so do other conferences like Conference USA. Pac 10 does not have one, but they play everybody in the conference. Why not force all the other conferences to guarantee that they either have a conference championship, or if too small, to play every team in their own conference. This is not a problem for the Big East, but the Big 10 needs to conform.

And for non BCS conferences, we are really only talking about the Mountain West and the WAC…why not make them play a MWC/WAC championship for a shot for a National Championship, if both teams are undefeated? I mean, they were all in the same conference ANYWAY up until a few years ago when they broke apart.

So does this make sense for TCU to be playing Boise State…to me it does not answer the question about who the best teams are, and I think it is an injustice for two non BCS teams to have to play each other. I would have loved to see TCU vs. Florida or Cincinnati, and Boise State vs. the other. That would have pitted two non BCS teams against two BCS teams, to either prove of disprove the argument of playoffs.

I think the BCS dropped the ball here, but in reality, with business in mind, I think it was the best bowl they could give, considering location. Could Florida come across country to play in Arizona…I think so. Could Cincinnati…not really sure. But Idaho and Texas are closer, which explains why TCU and Boise State got the nod. This is something they need to fix before congress steps in…and it seems they have already done so.

As for me, I MIGHT watch the game, but I saw that last year, not really impressed to watch it unless I am just curious.

2010 Fiesta Bowl

2010 Fiesta Bowl

It is still very early to determine who will be playing in the Fiesta Bowl, but IF things hold its form, this is what we may be looking at:

If you are new to how this works, it is very complicated, but let’s try to make it as simple as possible.

The teams selected in the BCS Bowls are based off the BCS rankings, which were ONLY designed to determine the #1 and #2 teams…that is all. Don’t get fooled in thinking it was designed for anything else. Now, there are 5 BCS Bowls, starting with the National Championship game, then the other four bowls, Rose, Orange, Fiesta and Sugar.

Once the National Championship is determined, then the other major bowls get to pick who they want, depending on contractual obligations and ranking of selections. That gets a little complicated but I will touch on that in a sec.

This year, BCS will take place at the same local as the Rose Bowl, but it is NOT the Rose Bowl. IF the season ended today, Florida and Alabama would play in the National Championship…but that is a huge error.

We all know they MUST play each other in the SEC Championship, so there is no way they will both meet in the BCS Championships, right? One must lose, and the other moves on. For sake of argument, let’s say Florida wins. If they do, then the BCS Title game will likely be Florida vs. Texas.

So where does all the other teams fall, like Alabama, TCU, Cincinnati, Boise State, and others? Well, they fall based on the bowls they are contractually obligated to. For example, the Rose Bowl will take the best Pac-10 and Big 10 teams, which in this case would be Oregon (Pac 10) and Ohio State (Big 10). That is how it looks right now.

The other three have a rotating ranking system, and actually take turns each year on who picks first, second and third. This year the order is Orange, Fiesta and Sugar. That means the Orange Bowl gets to pick from the remaining teams, then Fiesta and finally Sugar.

Now since this is about the Fiesta bowl, we know they pick AFTER the Orange bowl…but there are some complications. The Fiesta bowl is normally obligated to take the Big 12 Champion…UNLESS that same team is in the National Championship. If that happens, then they are free to take anyone else. Since Texas is (in this example) in the BCS Title game, they can pick any other two teams (minding you that they can’t pick Oregon or Ohio State because of the Rose Bowl.

It is quite likely that the Orange Bowl will take Georgia Tech because they must take the ACC champs, and it might be quite desirable that they will also take Cincinnati, because they are undefeated and nearer to the site of the Orange Bowl (Florida) than TCU or Boise State. If such is the case, who then would the Fiesta Bowl take?

I believe the Fiesta would have a choice of three teams…TCU, Boise State and Alabama. Two are undefeated (TCU and BSU), but you have a quality team in Alabama, and you know they travel well. I could see the Fiesta Bowl taking Alabama, because I am not so sure they want to take a repeat of TCU/Boise State…after all they played last year.

So I think either TCU or Boise State would be out, but can you ignore a bowl with two undefeated teams? This puts the Fiesta Bowl in a tough spot. A TCU/Alabama game would be nice, but so would a Boise State/Alabama game. I think if all things being equal, I think TCU and Alabama would be their choice. Alabama played the tougher schedule and is indeed better with one loss than Boise State with none, and TCU has the tough schedule to prove they are better than Boise State.

So that’s who I see in the Fiesta at this moment, TCU and Alabama.

Mountain West Conference Football

What’s up with the Mountain West Conference?

You know, just a few days ago I was singing the praises of the Mountain West Conference, and I even went so far as to say that they are better than the Big East and ACC because they had (at that time) three ranked teams.

My, how much changes in one week.

With teams like Utah, BYU and TCU, and sprinkle in some Air Force, I really thought this conference was better than the WAC and Boise State. When you have three teams out of your conference on the top 25, and you are not a power conference, that is awesome!

But what happened? I would have bet my last peanut butter and jelly sandwich that BYU was going to rout Florida State, and I CERTAINLY didn’t see a 54-28 smashing in BYU’s own living room.

And Utah losing at home to Oregon helps Boise State feel bigger than the Mountain West, since they beat Oregon at the beginning of the year.

With all the Mountain West teams 3 games in except TCU, only two teams remain that are undefeated: the afore-mentioned TCU and Colorado State, who at the moment is 3-0.

This is odd because this is a very tough conference, and if Colorado State is currently 3-0, with Utah just falling out the top 25, and TCU undefeated, with BYU still on the rankings, this to me is still a very tough conference…ok let’s not bring up that New Mexico is 0-3.

So the question might be, is this conference for real, or are they all pretenders to the BCS Buster Crown? Again, many will swear by Boise State, but I still think the WAC is not as competitive as the Mountain West.

Yes Boise State beat Oregon…at home, but outside of that, few see their schedule as competitive to the end. Look at the schedule of the Mountain West Conference and key games:

Air Force: Played at Minnesota, will play at Navy, home to TCU, away to Utah and Colorado State, and BYU.

BYU: Played away at Oklahoma, home to Florida State and Colorado State and TCU, Air Force and Utah.

Colorado State: Played away at Colorado, away to BYU, home to Utah, away to TCU and home to Air Force

New Mexico: Played away at Texas A&M, home to Air Force, away to Texas Tech and Utah, home to BYU and away to TCU

San Diego State: Away at UCLA and Air Force, home to BYU, away to Colorado State, home to TCU and way to Utah.

TCU: Away at Virginia and Clemson, Air Force and BYU, home to Utah.

UNLV: Home to Oregon State, BYU, Utah, away to TCU and Air Force.

Utah: Away at Oregon, home to Louisville, away to Colorado State, home to Air Force, away to TCU and BYU.

Folks, that is a competitive schedule.

It’s a shame that the old WAC super conference can’t get back together, when they had 16 teams. This would have ended a lot of talk about BCS Busters and stuff like that when you had teams like Boise State, Utah, BYU and TCU all fighting for one crown before stating a case for a BCS Championship. But as it stands, this Mountain West Conference is indeed a tough conference.

Sure, one loss hurts Utah and BYU a ton, in fact it kicked Utah out of one poll. So it might appear that the pride of the conference rests on TCU, or maybe Colorado State, since they need an undefeated team to make a serious charge at the BCS. I am not as confident in the Rams as I am in Horned Frogs, but both are still undefeated at the moment, after Saturday we will know much more about this conference.

I still think that IF a team goes undefeated in the MWC, they deserve serious consideration at a BCS Title IF there are no undefeated teams out of the BCS conferences. I mean, if people talk about Boise State getting that shot, why not TCU or Colorado State, if they go undefeated?

But there is still much to see, many more games to play, time will tell all.

Boise State vs TCU in New Orleans Bowl

2008 New Orleans Bowl

Boise State vs. TCU

Now this ought to be good!

The New Orleans Bowl will feature two very good programs, and in my opinion one of the best matchups outside the BCS. Undefeated Boise State vs. TCU out of the Mountain West, with two losses.

Before I begin, I want to say that I STILL think Boise State should not have taken this game. The non-BCS conferences always whine about how they are not getting respect from the BCS conferences…well, why don’t you PLAY one in a bowl? TCU is a great team, I will not argue that, but refresh my memory of which conference they come from…and ask yourself if that is a BCS conference or not?

Anyway, this is still a great matchup, who has the advantage? Let’s look at some resumes:

Boise State comes from the WAC, and have been the only team worth talking about from the entire conference. Their season started against Idaho State and continued when they defeated Bowling Green and then shocked people with a win over #17 Oregon.

It was then that people started looking at the chances of the Broncos busting into the BCS, but the season was still very young. The Broncos of Boise State gave up only 17 points the next three games, winning over Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss and Hawaii, pulling their record to 6-0.

Three more conference games were no match for Boise State, crushing San Jose State, New Mexico State and Utah State, and anybody else with a “state” in their name. At 9-0 there were serious talks about whether this team could, or should get into the BCS. But there were some major factors. One, Utah was still undefeated, and two, the strength of schedule counted against them. Sure they beat Oregon, but is that ALL you beat?

As if trying to impress voters by running up the score, Boise State continued to crush foes, putting over 145 points in the final three games over Idaho, Nevada and Fresno State. A perfect 12-0...but alas, no room for them in the BCS.

Almost half the teams that Boise State beat will be in a bowl, and they beat them all…but what they cannot shake is that the strength of schedule was incredibly low, and what certainly kept them from jumping over Utah.

So what of TCU; are they any better?

Wasn’t it several years ago when MWC and WAC were actually one conference, a SUPER conference? Perhaps if they had never broken up, they could be in the conversation for a BCS Championship. As it stands, TCU represents the Mountain West, finishing second, behind undefeated Utah.

TCU started out very hot, scoring over 120 points in their first three games, although it was against New Mexico, Stephen F Austin and Stanford. There were early talks that this MIGHT be the team to watch out for, and the Horned Frogs continued to stoke the fires by beating SMU 48-7

The big test was against Oklahoma…and the test ended with the Sooners winning by 25 points.

With National Title hopes smashed, TCU still had a chance at a BCS bowl if they won out. They defeated San Diego State and Colorado State before a big game vs. BYU. This was a HUGE game because it could potentially decide who would get that BCS bowl. In the end, it was TCU, proving how great they were by beating BYU 32-7.

So that BCS bowl hope was still alive as they continue to mow down conference foes Wyoming and UNLV. Then came the big game vs. Utah…a major game that had all the implications on it for national exposure and prominence. In a surprisingly low scoring game, TCU lost by only 3 points… but it might as well been 30.

With BCS bowl hopes dashed, they could only finish as best they could, beating a good Air Force team to end the season. Five teams TCU has faced will see post season, losing only to undefeated Utah and potential National Champion Oklahoma… not a bad two to lose to.

So, who wins?

On strength of conferences, I would rank the MWC as the best conference outside the BCS conferences. I might put the WAC second, just slightly ahead of Conference USA. That means that I think TCU’s record is better by competition than Boise State, but not by much.

The BEST team Boise State has faced this year was Oregon…the BEST team TCU faced was Oklahoma AND UTAH. And here is something else… outside of Oklahoma, NOBODY has scored more than 14 against TCU. This team gives up about 10 points a game, a pretty good defense that has seen very tough competition.

Even though Boise State has a great offense, their defense can be exposed. A narrow win over Nevada could have been a sign of a weakness, but this Boise State team has scored bunches of points over their foes.

I personally think TCU has the advantage because of strength of schedule, and has played tougher opponents than Boise State. A number of Boise State’s wins were against below par teams, but who can question the fact that they DID win those games? I mean, that is what you are supposed to do, right?

This will be a classic game, one that I just cannot miss. I think TCU wins this, but I wonder if it will be a shootout or a close game. Both teams are good in defense, but we are going to see true colors if they play to the level of their past schedule. I got TCU by 10 points.

Florida State and TCU Football

Florida State and TCU Football

You know, that blog I did during the Florida State/NC State game was kinda fun, I don’t know if I will make a habit of it, but it was fun to do.

But the two games last night had some implications on how the post season will be determined. In our area, we had the Florida State vs. NC State on ESPN, but the bigger game, that being BYU vs. TCU was not on television.

That was the game to watch. But let’s talk about the results of those two games, and how it shapes the destiny of all four schools.

Last night, in Raleigh NC (about an hour from where I am currently typing) the Florida State Seminoles made a close game with the NC State Wolfpack, but ended up winning 26-17. If you read my last blog, you know it started out very slow, but picked up in the second half.

The win makes FSU 5-1 and a step closer to the post season. There are a lot of people who think the ACC can’t put 9 teams in post season, and I am inclined to agree. I think 5 is a better number, but Florida State has a say in that. I am still not sure if the NCAA has allowed the two Southern Conference wins for FSU or not. If they did, then the Seminoles need only one more win to qualify for a bowl. The only game I MIGHT give them is Clemson, considering everything that is going on, but I gotta tell you, this win was not that impressive enough to assume that they can win 3 more games let alone enough to qualify for a bowl.

If those two SC games don’t count, then FSU might be in some serious trouble to reach the 6 wins needed. This won’t be easy for them, but not totally impossible.

Now, with the loss, NC State STILL has a chance at a bowl. Yeah, even at 2-5 there is still a very slight chance. IF we assume that their win vs. William & Mary counts, then they still need 4 more wins. Two away games vs. Maryland and Duke could be a split, then home against ranked Wake Forest, and away against ranked UNC. I won’t rule out an upset, and I’ll give them the Duke game (please).

But even with that, you’re looking at 4-7 with the Miami game left. That means the Wolfpack cannot go bowling, win or lose on that final game. This means that they need not one, but TWO upsets just to qualify.

But if that William & Mary game does NOT count, NC State must win EVERY game…not gonna happen.

Now, we also know that last night, BYU played TCU and lost…big. I had questions about the ranking of BYU considering the teams they have played. I just wasn’t fully convinced of their high ranking until they beat real good teams. We knew TCU had a tough scrap with Oklahoma and are at the bottom of the top 25. But last night, they made a strong case by defeating BYU 32-9.

What this means for TCU is now they are 7-1 and already bowl eligible. Where they go is anybody’s guess but they are in the post season now. The question is, can they climb high enough, fast enough to grab one of those BCS bowls? I personally believe if the MWC can get a team either undefeated or with one loss at the end of the season, they ought to play in a BCS bowl…not the BCS Championship, but a strong bowl.

TCU still has to play Utah and Air Force, so they have chances to move up the rankings. If there is a lot of shifting this weekend, TCU could jump into the top 15 very quickly.

But what of BYU?

The loss leaves BYU 6-1 and likely out for any chance of that elusive BCS Championship. A tie in the conference goes to TCU since they lost to them, but BYU is eligible for a bowl now with 6 wins. They still have to play Utah as well, so there is a chance to redeem themselves.

The Mountain West has some pretty good teams in it this year, with TCU, BYU and Utah, and I’ll throw in Air Force as well. It then is possible that they could beat each other up and knock out any BCS bowl hopes. But I believe if TCU or BYU finishes with only one loss, they ought to be considered in a major bowl UNLESS Utah runs the tables. With Air Force losing two games already, they won’t be invited to a major bowl, but they still play a part in this. We’ll see how things turn out.

BCS Busters

BCS Buster Teams

Every year the media scrambles to find the flies in the ointment, and then create stories to force them into the BCS National Championship. Even some of my favorite sports commentators on some of the shows seem to whine like babies when it comes to whether the BCS Championship should invite teams outside the power conferences to the National Championship.

To me, the National Championship should represent the two BEST teams in the country, not the teams with the best records. This is where the spirit of competition is often misplaced, because although I have nothing against teams from outside the power conferences, I just am not convinced that a team with an 11-0 or 12-0 record is better than a team like Oklahoma, Ohio State, USC or Florida with 1, or even 2 losses.

Now don’t get me wrong, there are exceptions, but let’s talk about that.

As of this date October 15th 2008, there are 6 teams of note that are not in the power conferences…

(For the novice, the “Power Conferences” are the ACC, Big East, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-10 and SEC…)

So the question becomes, who, if any, has a chance to play in the National Championship. This also begs the question as whether any of these teams can sincerely be seen as the BEST in the country.

Let’s chew on this. I mentioned 6 teams, let’s start with one that currently is not ranked on the polls: Tulsa University.

This team is currently 6-0 in Conference USA, a team that does not have an automatic invitation to the BCS bowls. Usually the champs of this conference get a trip to the Liberty Bowl. Funny, a few weeks ago we had placed ECU in that game, if not in the BCS, but now it looks like neither is gonna happen.

The record might look great, but there is a ZERO chance of Tulsa playing in the National Championship, and a 1% chance of playing in a BCS bowl. Why? The strength of schedule is very soft. Of their 6 wins, the current record of their opponents is 13-26. And if you take out Central Arkansas State, which isn’t a Division I school, that record changes to 8-25. Tulsa has three interesting games on their schedule, including Central Florida, Arkansas and Marshall. IF they win the division, they may well have to play Marshall again in the Conference USA Championship, or possibly UCF or even, dare we say…ECU?

But even undefeated, the strength of schedule keeps Tulsa from any National Championship, and unless everybody in the top 25 loses again, they can’t make it to the BCS bowls.

Ball State is the new darling of the NCAA, currently 7-0. Impressive, but coming out of the Mid-American Conference where currently 3 teams have a better than .500 record is a big problem. The strength of schedule will hurt them tremendously, but add on to this they have key division games vs. Western Michigan and Central Michigan just to fight to the division title. It seems whoever comes out of this division will win the MAC Championship, but even if Ball State goes undefeated, there is just no way they could be considered one of the two best teams in the nation. I can’t even see an invite to a BCS bowl if they go undefeated.

Understand what I am saying folks, I am not putting down these teams, I am looking at the theory that the National Championship is about the two best teams in the nation. Having a perfect record is great but it does not make you the best. If the BCS started awarding National Title games to undefeated teams, then schools like Notre Dame will water down their schedules even further to beg for a title that is not earned. Florida State played two Southern Conference teams this year and beat them with a combined 115 points…but that does not make them great. Heck, they are not a lock for even a bowl yet.

So although it seems like I am picking on Ball State and Tulsa, I am not.

Whereas Ball State is ranked #24 and #25 on two different polls, Boise State is ranked #16 and #17. This is a team that has shocked the nation, and although you can always question the strength of the Western Athletic Conference, you cannot question these guys.

A quality win over Oregon makes these guys legit, and you have to consider if this team deserves a national title shot IF they go undefeated. They still have some tough games in their conference with Fresno State and San Jose State and Hawaii, but overall nobody is going to compare the WAC to the SEC or Big 12, or even the ACC.

Strength of schedule is going to hurt them but they have a legit case of at least a BCS bowl if they go undefeated. But if so, you’d be saying they are one of the top 10 teams in the nation…I don’t have a problem with that at all if they go undefeated.

National Championship? I don’t think so. It goes back to whether Boise State with no losses is better than an Oklahoma with one loss, or Florida, Ohio State, LSU or other top ranked teams in stronger conferences with one loss. Yeah, I know they got that huge win awhile back, but could they do it again for a national title? I’m just not convinced that even if they go undefeated that they could be one of the two best teams in the nation. But if they DO go undefeated, they should be invited to a BCS bowl.

TCU is actually in one poll, and out of another. At 6-1, we know their only loss was to Oklahoma, and nobody is gonna fault them for that. The Mountain West Conference should be “popping their collars” because they have made some noise this year, with TCU being one of them. But because they already have one loss, they have no chance for a BCS Championship. Like the WAC, there is no championship game so there is no extra shot to move up the ranks. TCU will not be considered for a BCS title, even if they run the tables, but they CAN possibly get an invite to a BCS bowl if they clean out the MWC. If you consider who is on that schedule, that would really be saying something, even moreso that if Boise State goes undefeated. But one loss from an non-power conference school means elimination from the National Championship…

Unless everybody else loses 2 games….

Utah is currently #14 on one poll, and #13 in another. With 5 games left, and 2 very key games left, this is a team that can easily slip into the top 10 if other teams are caught napping. We know the SEC and Big 12 will knock each other around, so any teams like Utah, Boise State or even TCU can have a chance to slip in the elite circle if they go undefeated the rest of the season.

With wins over Michigan (ugh), Air Force and Oregon State, you have to give the Utes credit for being a good team. And their positioning is perfect right now, much better than TCU since the Horned Frogs are very low in the top 25. But Utah has to play TCU in a few weeks, and just like the SEC and Big 12, it is quite possible that the MWC can knock each other out of the national title.

But let’s say the don’t and Utah goes undefeated. Do they deserve a trip to the Orange bowl? I think IF they go undefeated, you have to seriously consider it because they have quality wins and the still have to play two teams that are ranked in one or more polls. This is a quality team. But are they better than a 1-loss team from a power conference?

Good question. I honestly don’t know the answer to that yet.

Then there’s BYU at 6-0.

Right now they are virtually guaranteed at LEAST a BCS bowl because they are in the top 10 in two polls. As I said, the MWC must be mighty happy with Utah, TCU and BYU making noise in the polls, and Air Force not being a shabby team either. This conference is very good, and I might say the best non-power conference in the nation. So if the power conferences are guaranteed a BCS bowl for their champions, then I think the Mountain West deserves at least that too.

But here’s the knocks on BYU. Yes they beat Washington and UCLA, and at the time it looked like very quality wins. But the Washington win was a controversial one, and barely beating an 0-6 team is not that impressive. Crushing the UCLA Bruins was nice, but we’re finding out that this team wasn’t all it was cracked up to be either.

In fact, only one team has a winning record of the 6 wins BYU has…hardly qualifying for a national championship. But they’ll get to prove themselves with some major games. Of their 6 remaining games, only one team at this point has a losing record in San Diego State (Marshall Faulk??).

With games vs. TCU, Utah and Air Force, the second half of the season will surely prove if BYU is worth of the hype. Go undefeated and I believe they deserve a BCS bowl. But a National Championship? Maybe, but to do that, 7 of the top 8 teams in the nation must lose, because BYU will not be jumping over anybody any other way.

Four teams from the Big 12 are still in the mix; if any of those win out, they are in, and BYU could be out. Alabama and Florida are still in, but I just can’t see Alabama going undefeated, so we may be talking about Florida, but the SEC is a tough conference. USC is still in the mix, even though they don’t have a conference championship game, and then there is Penn State. If they get through the Big 10, they are in.

This means the favor is against BYU, it’s not enough for them to win out, they need a LOT of help. They’ll get it from the Big 12 and maybe the SEC, but the Pac-10 and Big 10 are risky allies to depend on.

The next few weeks will reveal all. BCS busters, for the bowls sure, but for the National Championship…well, lots of stuff need to happen…and they just might…