BCS Busters

BCS Buster Teams

Every year the media scrambles to find the flies in the ointment, and then create stories to force them into the BCS National Championship. Even some of my favorite sports commentators on some of the shows seem to whine like babies when it comes to whether the BCS Championship should invite teams outside the power conferences to the National Championship.

To me, the National Championship should represent the two BEST teams in the country, not the teams with the best records. This is where the spirit of competition is often misplaced, because although I have nothing against teams from outside the power conferences, I just am not convinced that a team with an 11-0 or 12-0 record is better than a team like Oklahoma, Ohio State, USC or Florida with 1, or even 2 losses.

Now don’t get me wrong, there are exceptions, but let’s talk about that.

As of this date October 15th 2008, there are 6 teams of note that are not in the power conferences…

(For the novice, the “Power Conferences” are the ACC, Big East, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-10 and SEC…)

So the question becomes, who, if any, has a chance to play in the National Championship. This also begs the question as whether any of these teams can sincerely be seen as the BEST in the country.

Let’s chew on this. I mentioned 6 teams, let’s start with one that currently is not ranked on the polls: Tulsa University.

This team is currently 6-0 in Conference USA, a team that does not have an automatic invitation to the BCS bowls. Usually the champs of this conference get a trip to the Liberty Bowl. Funny, a few weeks ago we had placed ECU in that game, if not in the BCS, but now it looks like neither is gonna happen.

The record might look great, but there is a ZERO chance of Tulsa playing in the National Championship, and a 1% chance of playing in a BCS bowl. Why? The strength of schedule is very soft. Of their 6 wins, the current record of their opponents is 13-26. And if you take out Central Arkansas State, which isn’t a Division I school, that record changes to 8-25. Tulsa has three interesting games on their schedule, including Central Florida, Arkansas and Marshall. IF they win the division, they may well have to play Marshall again in the Conference USA Championship, or possibly UCF or even, dare we say…ECU?

But even undefeated, the strength of schedule keeps Tulsa from any National Championship, and unless everybody in the top 25 loses again, they can’t make it to the BCS bowls.

Ball State is the new darling of the NCAA, currently 7-0. Impressive, but coming out of the Mid-American Conference where currently 3 teams have a better than .500 record is a big problem. The strength of schedule will hurt them tremendously, but add on to this they have key division games vs. Western Michigan and Central Michigan just to fight to the division title. It seems whoever comes out of this division will win the MAC Championship, but even if Ball State goes undefeated, there is just no way they could be considered one of the two best teams in the nation. I can’t even see an invite to a BCS bowl if they go undefeated.

Understand what I am saying folks, I am not putting down these teams, I am looking at the theory that the National Championship is about the two best teams in the nation. Having a perfect record is great but it does not make you the best. If the BCS started awarding National Title games to undefeated teams, then schools like Notre Dame will water down their schedules even further to beg for a title that is not earned. Florida State played two Southern Conference teams this year and beat them with a combined 115 points…but that does not make them great. Heck, they are not a lock for even a bowl yet.

So although it seems like I am picking on Ball State and Tulsa, I am not.

Whereas Ball State is ranked #24 and #25 on two different polls, Boise State is ranked #16 and #17. This is a team that has shocked the nation, and although you can always question the strength of the Western Athletic Conference, you cannot question these guys.

A quality win over Oregon makes these guys legit, and you have to consider if this team deserves a national title shot IF they go undefeated. They still have some tough games in their conference with Fresno State and San Jose State and Hawaii, but overall nobody is going to compare the WAC to the SEC or Big 12, or even the ACC.

Strength of schedule is going to hurt them but they have a legit case of at least a BCS bowl if they go undefeated. But if so, you’d be saying they are one of the top 10 teams in the nation…I don’t have a problem with that at all if they go undefeated.

National Championship? I don’t think so. It goes back to whether Boise State with no losses is better than an Oklahoma with one loss, or Florida, Ohio State, LSU or other top ranked teams in stronger conferences with one loss. Yeah, I know they got that huge win awhile back, but could they do it again for a national title? I’m just not convinced that even if they go undefeated that they could be one of the two best teams in the nation. But if they DO go undefeated, they should be invited to a BCS bowl.

TCU is actually in one poll, and out of another. At 6-1, we know their only loss was to Oklahoma, and nobody is gonna fault them for that. The Mountain West Conference should be “popping their collars” because they have made some noise this year, with TCU being one of them. But because they already have one loss, they have no chance for a BCS Championship. Like the WAC, there is no championship game so there is no extra shot to move up the ranks. TCU will not be considered for a BCS title, even if they run the tables, but they CAN possibly get an invite to a BCS bowl if they clean out the MWC. If you consider who is on that schedule, that would really be saying something, even moreso that if Boise State goes undefeated. But one loss from an non-power conference school means elimination from the National Championship…

Unless everybody else loses 2 games….

Utah is currently #14 on one poll, and #13 in another. With 5 games left, and 2 very key games left, this is a team that can easily slip into the top 10 if other teams are caught napping. We know the SEC and Big 12 will knock each other around, so any teams like Utah, Boise State or even TCU can have a chance to slip in the elite circle if they go undefeated the rest of the season.

With wins over Michigan (ugh), Air Force and Oregon State, you have to give the Utes credit for being a good team. And their positioning is perfect right now, much better than TCU since the Horned Frogs are very low in the top 25. But Utah has to play TCU in a few weeks, and just like the SEC and Big 12, it is quite possible that the MWC can knock each other out of the national title.

But let’s say the don’t and Utah goes undefeated. Do they deserve a trip to the Orange bowl? I think IF they go undefeated, you have to seriously consider it because they have quality wins and the still have to play two teams that are ranked in one or more polls. This is a quality team. But are they better than a 1-loss team from a power conference?

Good question. I honestly don’t know the answer to that yet.

Then there’s BYU at 6-0.

Right now they are virtually guaranteed at LEAST a BCS bowl because they are in the top 10 in two polls. As I said, the MWC must be mighty happy with Utah, TCU and BYU making noise in the polls, and Air Force not being a shabby team either. This conference is very good, and I might say the best non-power conference in the nation. So if the power conferences are guaranteed a BCS bowl for their champions, then I think the Mountain West deserves at least that too.

But here’s the knocks on BYU. Yes they beat Washington and UCLA, and at the time it looked like very quality wins. But the Washington win was a controversial one, and barely beating an 0-6 team is not that impressive. Crushing the UCLA Bruins was nice, but we’re finding out that this team wasn’t all it was cracked up to be either.

In fact, only one team has a winning record of the 6 wins BYU has…hardly qualifying for a national championship. But they’ll get to prove themselves with some major games. Of their 6 remaining games, only one team at this point has a losing record in San Diego State (Marshall Faulk??).

With games vs. TCU, Utah and Air Force, the second half of the season will surely prove if BYU is worth of the hype. Go undefeated and I believe they deserve a BCS bowl. But a National Championship? Maybe, but to do that, 7 of the top 8 teams in the nation must lose, because BYU will not be jumping over anybody any other way.

Four teams from the Big 12 are still in the mix; if any of those win out, they are in, and BYU could be out. Alabama and Florida are still in, but I just can’t see Alabama going undefeated, so we may be talking about Florida, but the SEC is a tough conference. USC is still in the mix, even though they don’t have a conference championship game, and then there is Penn State. If they get through the Big 10, they are in.

This means the favor is against BYU, it’s not enough for them to win out, they need a LOT of help. They’ll get it from the Big 12 and maybe the SEC, but the Pac-10 and Big 10 are risky allies to depend on.

The next few weeks will reveal all. BCS busters, for the bowls sure, but for the National Championship…well, lots of stuff need to happen…and they just might…