Florida State Football:Bowl or Bust?

Florida State Football: Bowl or Bust?

Things have not been to great for Florida State Football lately. It seems like it was 42 years ago when the Seminoles went to the National Championship against Virginia Tech…oh, the good times back then.

But now, in 2008 this same team (with different players of course) are now in the crossroads of the season. You would not know it simply by looking at the numbers, but if you dig a bit deeper, you might see the true situation.

From first look, we see that in the ACC (which is playing pretty sub-par this year), every team has at LEAST a even record, or better…except NC State…

Oh, did I mention FSU plays NC State this Thursday?

6 of those ACC teams has only 1 loss, Florida State being one of those. And right now they are in a 3-way tie for second place in the Atlantic Division, with their loss coming to Wake Forest. So they look like they are in decent position to still challenge for the ACC title, and get to a bowl, right?

Maybe.

We were tricked the first couple of weeks when FSU demolished a couple of Southern Conference schools (one being MINE) and figured this was a team to reckon with in the ACC…until Wake Forest showed them the door, winning 12-3. How can you score 115 points and allow 7 in the first two games, but fail to get one touchdown against a conference rival?

This brought a lot of questions about FSU, but a quality win vs. Colorado and an escape vs. Miami seemed to put them back on track. As it stands now, Florida State is 4-1.

Now I’ll be honest, I don’t know if those first two games count because they were not Division I (or FBS) wins. I do know some of those games can count, but let’s just assume they don’t. this means Florida State needs 4 more wins to qualify for a bowl. With 7 games left, this seems to be a pretty good shot…but let’s take a look anyway.

We mentioned the game this Thursday against NC State, the current cellar-team. I think NC State is in as desperate a situation as a team can get, and with a home game this is a critical game…and isn’t the former head coach of the Wolfpack back with the Seminoles….hmmm, makes for an emotional game….

I’d like to say FSU should be favored, but emotional games go either way. Let’s just play devil’s advocate and say FSU loses, whether by 1 point or 20 it does not matter. Can this team rebound and win enough games to make it to a bowl?

This game is critical because it is also a division game. We know any tie breakers with FSU and Wake Forest will lean to the Demon Deacons because in head to head, they beat FSU, so it is vital that Florida State get this win and stay in reach of Wake Forest. They MUST have this game.

But if they don’t, then their next game is against #17 Virginia Tech. Yes this team lost to ECU earlier, but that was then. I think VA Tech is the best team in the ACC this year, and whether home or away, FSU might have their hands full. I’d like to see FSU win, but somehow I am just not convinced.

If you’re scoring, it is possible that FSU could be 4-3 before they see Georgia Tech AT their house. The good thing about this game and the Virginia Tech game is that even though they are ACC opponents, they are not division foes. Theoretically FSU could lose both these games and still contend for the ACC crown if they win the division.

Oh, by the way, what’s up with that 10-7 win over Gardner-Webb?

This might be a pretty good game to watch, and it is not a “gimme game” for FSU. I really see this going either way, and you have to wonder if home field will be the deciding factor. I just can’t call this one yet.

The next two games are home games, against Clemson and Boston College. We know Clemson is going through some very tough times, and you wonder if this team is in a mental state to play quality ball away from home. I think this should be one of the better games for FSU unless they get cocky and think that this game is already over. But the Boston College game will be harder. I personally think Boston College will win the division, but the game they will have vs. Wake Forest may decide that. But if I am picking Boston College to win the division, I then imply that they will beat FSU.

Their final ACC game is at Maryland, which has really been a question the entire season. But by this time, we might have a very important game here. It is quite possible that Maryland may have only 5 wins, needing one more to qualify for a bowl. This game becomes absolutely important to the Terapins, a game the MUST have. Can FSU beat a starving team or will they fall to Maryland’s bowl dreams?

By the time Florida State faces Florida, we could be looking at possibly a Florida team just steps away from a possible National Title game, and will not be interested in FSU being a thorn in their side. But it is also possible that FSU could be sitting at 6-5 and needing to win a signature game and hope for a bowl. I know when it comes to state rivals you throw out the records, but Florida is not likely to lose this game.

Florida State could end up 6-6, meaning I am only giving them 2 wins of the remaining 7 games: Clemson and NC State. I am not saying they can’t beat the other teams, but they will certainly have to earn them. But here’s the question, if those first two games don’t count, then FSU can’t go bowling with a 6-6 record. They MUST win 7 or 8 games, again depending on whether the Western Carolina and UTC games count. I can’t give them Florida, I can’t give them Virginia Tech and I believe Boston College is better than people think. So for FSU to go bowling this year, they’ve likely got to beat Georgia Tech and Maryland. Can they do that?

We’ll see depending on this Thursday’s game. If they lose to NC State, we may have our answers for the rest of they year.