Florida State and TCU Football

Florida State and TCU Football

You know, that blog I did during the Florida State/NC State game was kinda fun, I don’t know if I will make a habit of it, but it was fun to do.

But the two games last night had some implications on how the post season will be determined. In our area, we had the Florida State vs. NC State on ESPN, but the bigger game, that being BYU vs. TCU was not on television.

That was the game to watch. But let’s talk about the results of those two games, and how it shapes the destiny of all four schools.

Last night, in Raleigh NC (about an hour from where I am currently typing) the Florida State Seminoles made a close game with the NC State Wolfpack, but ended up winning 26-17. If you read my last blog, you know it started out very slow, but picked up in the second half.

The win makes FSU 5-1 and a step closer to the post season. There are a lot of people who think the ACC can’t put 9 teams in post season, and I am inclined to agree. I think 5 is a better number, but Florida State has a say in that. I am still not sure if the NCAA has allowed the two Southern Conference wins for FSU or not. If they did, then the Seminoles need only one more win to qualify for a bowl. The only game I MIGHT give them is Clemson, considering everything that is going on, but I gotta tell you, this win was not that impressive enough to assume that they can win 3 more games let alone enough to qualify for a bowl.

If those two SC games don’t count, then FSU might be in some serious trouble to reach the 6 wins needed. This won’t be easy for them, but not totally impossible.

Now, with the loss, NC State STILL has a chance at a bowl. Yeah, even at 2-5 there is still a very slight chance. IF we assume that their win vs. William & Mary counts, then they still need 4 more wins. Two away games vs. Maryland and Duke could be a split, then home against ranked Wake Forest, and away against ranked UNC. I won’t rule out an upset, and I’ll give them the Duke game (please).

But even with that, you’re looking at 4-7 with the Miami game left. That means the Wolfpack cannot go bowling, win or lose on that final game. This means that they need not one, but TWO upsets just to qualify.

But if that William & Mary game does NOT count, NC State must win EVERY game…not gonna happen.

Now, we also know that last night, BYU played TCU and lost…big. I had questions about the ranking of BYU considering the teams they have played. I just wasn’t fully convinced of their high ranking until they beat real good teams. We knew TCU had a tough scrap with Oklahoma and are at the bottom of the top 25. But last night, they made a strong case by defeating BYU 32-9.

What this means for TCU is now they are 7-1 and already bowl eligible. Where they go is anybody’s guess but they are in the post season now. The question is, can they climb high enough, fast enough to grab one of those BCS bowls? I personally believe if the MWC can get a team either undefeated or with one loss at the end of the season, they ought to play in a BCS bowl…not the BCS Championship, but a strong bowl.

TCU still has to play Utah and Air Force, so they have chances to move up the rankings. If there is a lot of shifting this weekend, TCU could jump into the top 15 very quickly.

But what of BYU?

The loss leaves BYU 6-1 and likely out for any chance of that elusive BCS Championship. A tie in the conference goes to TCU since they lost to them, but BYU is eligible for a bowl now with 6 wins. They still have to play Utah as well, so there is a chance to redeem themselves.

The Mountain West has some pretty good teams in it this year, with TCU, BYU and Utah, and I’ll throw in Air Force as well. It then is possible that they could beat each other up and knock out any BCS bowl hopes. But I believe if TCU or BYU finishes with only one loss, they ought to be considered in a major bowl UNLESS Utah runs the tables. With Air Force losing two games already, they won’t be invited to a major bowl, but they still play a part in this. We’ll see how things turn out.