Boise State vs TCU in New Orleans Bowl

2008 New Orleans Bowl

Boise State vs. TCU

Now this ought to be good!

The New Orleans Bowl will feature two very good programs, and in my opinion one of the best matchups outside the BCS. Undefeated Boise State vs. TCU out of the Mountain West, with two losses.

Before I begin, I want to say that I STILL think Boise State should not have taken this game. The non-BCS conferences always whine about how they are not getting respect from the BCS conferences…well, why don’t you PLAY one in a bowl? TCU is a great team, I will not argue that, but refresh my memory of which conference they come from…and ask yourself if that is a BCS conference or not?

Anyway, this is still a great matchup, who has the advantage? Let’s look at some resumes:

Boise State comes from the WAC, and have been the only team worth talking about from the entire conference. Their season started against Idaho State and continued when they defeated Bowling Green and then shocked people with a win over #17 Oregon.

It was then that people started looking at the chances of the Broncos busting into the BCS, but the season was still very young. The Broncos of Boise State gave up only 17 points the next three games, winning over Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss and Hawaii, pulling their record to 6-0.

Three more conference games were no match for Boise State, crushing San Jose State, New Mexico State and Utah State, and anybody else with a “state” in their name. At 9-0 there were serious talks about whether this team could, or should get into the BCS. But there were some major factors. One, Utah was still undefeated, and two, the strength of schedule counted against them. Sure they beat Oregon, but is that ALL you beat?

As if trying to impress voters by running up the score, Boise State continued to crush foes, putting over 145 points in the final three games over Idaho, Nevada and Fresno State. A perfect 12-0...but alas, no room for them in the BCS.

Almost half the teams that Boise State beat will be in a bowl, and they beat them all…but what they cannot shake is that the strength of schedule was incredibly low, and what certainly kept them from jumping over Utah.

So what of TCU; are they any better?

Wasn’t it several years ago when MWC and WAC were actually one conference, a SUPER conference? Perhaps if they had never broken up, they could be in the conversation for a BCS Championship. As it stands, TCU represents the Mountain West, finishing second, behind undefeated Utah.

TCU started out very hot, scoring over 120 points in their first three games, although it was against New Mexico, Stephen F Austin and Stanford. There were early talks that this MIGHT be the team to watch out for, and the Horned Frogs continued to stoke the fires by beating SMU 48-7

The big test was against Oklahoma…and the test ended with the Sooners winning by 25 points.

With National Title hopes smashed, TCU still had a chance at a BCS bowl if they won out. They defeated San Diego State and Colorado State before a big game vs. BYU. This was a HUGE game because it could potentially decide who would get that BCS bowl. In the end, it was TCU, proving how great they were by beating BYU 32-7.

So that BCS bowl hope was still alive as they continue to mow down conference foes Wyoming and UNLV. Then came the big game vs. Utah…a major game that had all the implications on it for national exposure and prominence. In a surprisingly low scoring game, TCU lost by only 3 points… but it might as well been 30.

With BCS bowl hopes dashed, they could only finish as best they could, beating a good Air Force team to end the season. Five teams TCU has faced will see post season, losing only to undefeated Utah and potential National Champion Oklahoma… not a bad two to lose to.

So, who wins?

On strength of conferences, I would rank the MWC as the best conference outside the BCS conferences. I might put the WAC second, just slightly ahead of Conference USA. That means that I think TCU’s record is better by competition than Boise State, but not by much.

The BEST team Boise State has faced this year was Oregon…the BEST team TCU faced was Oklahoma AND UTAH. And here is something else… outside of Oklahoma, NOBODY has scored more than 14 against TCU. This team gives up about 10 points a game, a pretty good defense that has seen very tough competition.

Even though Boise State has a great offense, their defense can be exposed. A narrow win over Nevada could have been a sign of a weakness, but this Boise State team has scored bunches of points over their foes.

I personally think TCU has the advantage because of strength of schedule, and has played tougher opponents than Boise State. A number of Boise State’s wins were against below par teams, but who can question the fact that they DID win those games? I mean, that is what you are supposed to do, right?

This will be a classic game, one that I just cannot miss. I think TCU wins this, but I wonder if it will be a shootout or a close game. Both teams are good in defense, but we are going to see true colors if they play to the level of their past schedule. I got TCU by 10 points.