NO, you cannot go BOWLING!

NO, you may NOT go!

At this moment, there are nine teams in Division I that have unfortunately been delivered the news that they cannot compete for a post season game. That’s tough news for those teams, but if you look at this carefully, it might also say something about the conference, and the strength of it (or lack of strength). Let’s take a quick look at these teams and what it may represent in the conference they come from.

North Texas represents the Sun Belt Conference and was actually one of the first teams to fall out of the post season picture. This is one of 2 teams in the nation that still has no wins to their credit. So how does this represent the conference?

This 8-team conference isn’t one of the power conferences, but is still competitive inside their own. Nobody’s saying that they should have a team in the BCS bowls, but that does not mean these guys can’t play. But the fact that no one IS talking about a BCS or big wins for the conference seems to be shown in the representation of North Texas. Of all the conferences, this may be the one that few talk about when it comes to top 25 caliber, and often times the proof is in the representation of their lowest team, that being North Texas. Before the next couple of weeks, there may be 3 more teams that fall out of any chance of a bowl.

Utah State and Idaho represent the WAC (Western Athletic Conference) and both of these teams will be watching the post season together. Utah State is 1-7 and Idaho is currently 2-7. This is part of the implications when it comes to a team like Boise State who is currently undefeated, and why some don’t believe they belong in a BCS Championship. In a way there is argument here, when you have two teams that are already out of any post season. One may argue that teams like this make it easier for Boise State to pick up wins and advance up the polls.

And there may be some truth to it, but Boise State does what it can to play a competitive schedule and so far they have not lost. And let’s not lose the fact that there are some pretty decent teams in the WAC, such as Fresno State, Hawaii and San Jose State. You can very likely see 4 teams playing somewhere after the regular season is over, but when the authorities of the BCS look at teams like Boise State and their conference, they will continue to label them “BCS Busters” because technically they don’t belong with the “big dogs”. Having two teams already out of post season seems to be proof of that.

Ohio University and Eastern Michigan from the Mid American Conference are also out. With both teams being 2-7, it won’t be long before several more teams out of their conference are added next weekend. Four more teams may be added by the end of Saturday, bringing question to the strength of the conference.

And even with Ball State at 8-0, few people will put this team in the top ten because the strength of schedule is very suspect. Again, this does not mean these teams are not competitive, but when one looks at the conference, they look at the best teams, and the worst teams, and see how easy it was for the best teams to get those wins. One may argue that if Ball State was in another conference, they would not be undefeated. So it does make a difference when it comes to the strength of the schedule, but at the same time, do not fault Ball State for being undefeated…they played everyone on their schedule.

San Diego State represents the Mountain West Conference, and are also out of any hopes of a post season, and will be joined by another very soon. But here’s the counter to this argument, there are already FOUR teams that are already eligible. So it’s hard to say that the MWC is not as worth when you’ve already got several teams already eligible for a bowl. We can expect that from the power conferences, but the MWC is not one of those power conferences. This is a GOOD conference, and even in such conferences, there will always be a “cellar” team. So even though San Diego State is out, and Wyoming at the door, this is still a credible conference.

But having said that, it still plays against teams like Utah, who stand undefeated. BYU was the early talk of the town, and before them, TCU, both having lost a game, so one wonders how long before Utah loses one game in this competitive arena. All it takes is one loss to lose any hopes for a BCS Championship, but MAYBE one loss keeps them in the picture for a BCS bowl. The fact that there is only one team not going to post season as this moment helps a bit.

SMU and Conference USA is a strange thing. A conference with 12 teams, and one team now out of post season, yet only one that is currently eligible. It’s amazing that only Tulsa with 8 wins is eligible, and Rice being the only team that can become eligible this weekend, one argues if this is a competitive conference or a very soft one. It wasn’t too long when we sang the praises of ECU, now everyone outside of NC has forgotten them. Outside of Tulsa, who has already qualified, and Rice, who MIGHT qualify with a win this weekend, nobody else will qualify for a bowl for at LEAST two weeks, if even then.

For that reason, Tulsa will not be given serious consideration when it comes to a BCS Championship even if they go undefeated. One wonders if they will even get a serious bid at a BCS Bowl, rather than the Liberty Bowl. I am sure the conference would love to have a representative in the bigger bowls, but a lot of things have to happen for them to get in that ball room. There is little doubt that the conference just isn’t strong enough to warrant an undefeated team in the National Championship.

And then there’s the Pac-10, with the state of Washington out of luck this year. With Washington University winless at 0-7 and Washington State at 1-7, this is a sad year for the state. This is odd because the Pac-10 is a power conference, not like the MWC or Conference USA. And yet, they have one shot at the National Title with USC. The problem is that unless the current undefeated teams lose, Southern Cal won’t get in.

It is quite possible that half of the Pac-10 won’t see post season, which raises some questions about the strength of the conference this year. Some have said that according to the computers, USC cannot improve their current rankings by the numbers, but of course they can improve their POSITION if Texas, Penn State and Alabama lose a game… or two.

But this speaks some volumes how a power conference can have two teams already out of any hopes of post season. With two teams with a combined 1-14 record, how easy has it been (or will it be) for USC and Oregon to snatch up two easy wins? It can make the conference lose some punch when it comes down to those one-loss teams like USC and others like Florida, Georgia, Oklahoma and the like. It will play a factor, but ultimately, USC needs charity to get to a national championship.

You can indeed tell the strength of a conference by the best teams, but you can learn a lot from the teams on the bottom too. As the weeks go on, we will see more teams fall outside the post season, but the balance of who is great and who was bad will play a role in who really is the best teams in the Division I…we shall see…