Is ECU for real??

Is ECU for real?

Tomorrow (or today since I may end up posting this after midnight), East Carolina University will play against NC State in what will be a big rival game, and has some huge implications for both teams. So the question I will blog about here is this: Is ECU for real?

What do I mean by “real”? Well, I mean a quality top 10 team, one that is able to play for one of those prized BCS bowls at the end of the year. East Carolina University comes out of Conference USA, and there isn’t a whole lot of respect for this conference when you compare them to the other “big boys”.

One of them being the ACC…which ain’t as scary as many people are used to seeing them. And I say this as a guy that lives in the middle of ACC country….and not far from Greenville, NC.

Personally speaking, I am not a fan of ECU, and I don’t like the idea that you HAVE to be a fan of the nearest team. That is crap because it’s another way of forcing people to believe what YOU want them to believe. A person can live IN Greenville and not pull for ECU, that’s their prerogative. Last I checked, ECU is still part of the USA, meaning we still have some freedom of choice.

But I am not an NC State fan either.

So my personal opinions aside, who should win, and is ECU real?

Well, on NC State’s side, they will be at home; that’s always a plus. Second, NC State beat ECU last year 34-20 in Greenville. Third, the mere fact that ECU is nationally ranked gives the Wolfpack EVERYTHING to play for, especially if it means salvaging their season. If ever there was a time to go in “a new direction”… meaning WINNING, this is certainly the time.

But what of the Pirates of ECU? What’s on their side? First, they are the favored team, being in the top 15 in the nation. THEY knocked off Virginia Tech and then West Virginia. Imagine this; ECU lost 5 games last year; Virginia Tech, West Virginia, NC State, Marshall and Southern Miss. The face all 5 this year too, and 2 have already been knocked down.

The stakes are very high for both teams because NC State desperately needs a win in the worst way. If they are going to hope to qualify for a bowl, they need this win to jumpstart themselves to 6 Division I wins. Simply put, if they lose this game, the will NOT be going to a bowl.

For ECU, the story is much different. Already 3-0, they are on course to play in a BCS game, and a SLIM chance at a National Championship….ok I know that is waaaaaaay too soon after only 3 games, but the fact of the matter is this is where they stand right now, and being #13 or #14 now is extremely advantageous. And consider that if they win, and with the big matchups this weekend in the SEC, this team could slid up several spots and find themselves in the top 10.

But are they for real?

Can they go undefeated?

There are some arguments on this, starting with the teams they have played. Their first win was against Virginia Tech, IN Charlotte…I don’t care how you slice it, to play in your home state against an out of state foe is to your advantage. And you have to ask if VA Tech was worthy of being a #17 team when they lost to ECU.

Second was the win over West Virginia…in Greenville. I personally thought that WVA was going to ruin ECU, but that didn’t happen at all. In fact, West Virginia played too conservatively…almost as if they already won the game. But now after seeing how poorly the (West Virginia) played against Colorado, I now have to wonder if this West VA team was given too much respect, since they will not be in the top 25 after two straight losses.

So is ECU for real?

Last week I was not convinced that they were as dominant as they suggested, because I felt that they played two home games…and YES I am counting that Charlotte game as a home game. I also question now the strength of the teams they beat. I am not blaming ECU for that, they play whoever puts the pads on. But I wondered how they were going to react when they had to go out of state and play a conference rival. That rival being Tulane, a team that was 4-8 last year.

ECU barely won, 28-24. But you can argue, “so what, a win is a win”.

True, but I think their weakness has been exposed.

I think ECU is in great danger of losing not one, but a couple of games this year because with that ranking beside their name, they now become the Superbowl of every opponent the rest of the year. Conference USA is not known to have heavy hitters, and every team is now marking ECU as THE game for them. ECU will now face the very best from every team on their schedule…and as they say, heavy is the head that wears the crown….

Of the teams ECU beat last year, more than half finished with under .500 records…again this Conference isn’t as intimidating as the other major ones, so it is quite possible that a good team in a poor conference can look like a top 10 team.

The problem is NC State is a team that can make them look great. The last Division I team they beat was last year, against lowly UNC by only 4 points. In fact, of NC State’s 4 Division I wins last year, three of them were by less than 6 points…

The exception being ECU, when they beat the Pirates by 14 points.

So this actually has a great setup for two teams that may end up going in opposite directions. If NC State loses this game, the season is OVER. If they win, it gives them some hope to possibly win 6 games and qualify for a bowl.

If ECU wins this game, they will probably jump into the top 10, or just outside it by the end of the weekend, but will make that target on their head that much bigger for every team remaining on the schedule. Every team remaining will think, “we want to knock off this top 10 team”. I am just not convinced that ECU can “bring it” every week, especially on the road. But this “away” game vs. NC State is still in NC, so there is still some help by their fans. I am just not convinced that they can win their other away games vs. Virginia, Southern Miss, Central Florida and UAB.

If ECU loses, it will not be the only one. They will lose at least one more game, and lose any chance of a BCS bowl. If that happens, which I think is likely, then ECU could be looking at the Liberty Bowl, which usually puts the Conference USA Champion against a lower seeded SEC team. Think South Carolina….

The other issue here is the strength of schedule. ECU has a weak schedule and it won’t impress a lot of voters, especially the way WVA has bombed out of the top 25. ECU really needed West Virginia to back up their talk against Colorado, but they did not. If Virginia Tech falls out and stays out the top 25, this will not look well on ECU because it will give the impress that they have played a very soft schedule.

So…is ECU for real? Can they win it all…I don’t think so. Of course the Pirates don’t wanna hear that, but that’s why I have this blog…to say what I believe, not what somebody wants me to say. I think, at this point, ECU is looking at a 2-loss season, which is still very good, but a far cry from the National Championship they are currently dreaming of. The Liberty bowl usually puts the best Conference USA team against the 6th or 7th ranked SEC team, so we could be looking at ECU vs. South Carolina, or Arkansas or Alabama…who knows?

Everything is based on what happens tomorrow… or today since I have written past midnight…it’s Saturday already. Bring on the football!!!!