Mississippi vs South Carolina 2009

Mississippi vs. South Carolina 2009

Looks like we got us a SEC matchup tonight….

Tonight on ESPN there will be a pretty interesting matchup between two SEC foes, as South Carolina will host the Mississippi Rebels. This is a game to watch, because for a lot of folks like myself, we are waiting to see if this Miss team is really the real deal.

I think the jury is still out on it.

Now Mississippi is ranked #5 on one poll, and #4 on the other, so we’re talking about a top 5 team in the nation. I can’t argue that. Mississippi has two wins already, while South Carolina is 2-1. By numbers alone, one might assume that South Carolina is doomed to lose…I mean, even under Steve Spurrier the Gamecocks have not really kicked open the door to the SEC Championship, have they?

But let’s look a little further, and see if we can find out what may happen tonight, shall we?

South Carolina, as mentioned, is 2-1, but came off a 7-6 record last year. Since they are playing home, let’s look at their home games from 2008. The Gamecocks beat NC State 34-0 to start the season, lost to Georgia 14-7 and barely beat Wofford 23-13...

Only ten points? What’s up with that Spurrier?

South Carolina beats UAB 26-13, loses to LSU 24-17, beats Tennessee 27-6 and stops Arkansas 34-21. So the home record for South Carolina is 5-2...not bad. When you consider that they lost to Georgia and LSU, that’s nothing to get too upset about. It might appear that South Carolina has a strong home field advantage.

Add to this that they beat Mississippi away last year 34-21, and one could guess that a little home cooking might make things better. This year they started out with Wolfpack, sweaking by 7-3, then lost at Georgia 41-37 before beating Florida Atlantic 38-16. I think the Gamecocks are a tad better this year than last year. Consider last year about this time they had about 58 points, this year they have scored over 80. If they can improve their defense just a little, it might make the difference in winning 7 games, or winning 9. To be sure, they have a chance tonight.

But Mississippi is a top 5 ranked team, with a quarterback that has been mentioned as a Heisman hopeful. With a 9-4 record last year, their losses were to Wake Forest on the road, Vanderbilt at home, South Carolina at home and Alabama away…hmmm.

The strength of Mississippi rests on the fact that they beat Florida, LSU and Texas Tech last year…not a bad trio to hang your hat on. So the Rebels get a nice big ranking early this year, and with upsets already abound, it was easy for them to move up the BCS ladder.

Question…are they REALLY a top 5 team?

That’s hard to answer right now, because even at 2-0 they have no conference games yet…until tonight. Beating Memphis isn’t saying a lot, crushing the Tigers 45-14, and beating Southeastern Louisiana 52-6 does not really make a real mark either. Granted, two wins is two wins, but who have you beat so far?

But you can’t ignore a quarterback that has thrown only 50 times this year, and has 5 touchdowns. With a high powered offense, this could be a team that will give South Carolina fits. We know the Rebels love to score, whether home or away, so the South Carolina fans better be ready for scoring galore.

Can Mississippi win on the road against Steve Spurrier? Can the Gamecocks beat a top 5 team, which would give an incredible boost to the university and the team? I think Mississippi can beat South Carolina in their house, after all they beat Florida AND LSU last year in their houses…why would this be any different?

It’s different because South Carolina beat them last year.

But folks, I am going to drink a little bit of that Rebel Gatorade, and think that this team can…and will pull out a victory. This will be their first real test of the year, and I do wonder if they are mentally ready for that. Whipping up on lesser foes can make you dull, but I think this South Carolina team is average at best, and may put up a good fight, but it won’t be enough.

I see Mississippi winning by about 7 points, maybe as much as 10.