Utah Football in the BCS

Should Utah Play in the BCS Championship

I was watching television today and there was the question of whether Utah can play in the National Championship if they go undefeated.

Answer…no.

……………………………….................................

Well, if I don’t go any further, we won’t have much of a blog here, so let me explain.

Right now, Utah is ranked #11 in the BCS rankings with a .6345. This means there are 10 other teams that are better than Utah, so at the very moment, there is NO chance for Utah to play in the BCS Championship at the current pace. None. Any team from a power conference with either zero losses or one loss will be more favored than Utah, even if they are undefeated.

I personally believe that the Mountain West Champion SHOULD play in a BCS bowl, because I think this year there are very good, with BYU, TCU, Utah and Air Force. This is a pretty strong conference, perhaps the equal of the ACC this year (maybe better).

But the strength of schedule goes against Utah just a bit. This is what has been hurting the Utes this year, but it’s not their fault, they have to play the teams on their schedule. And with big games against BYU and TCU, they can surely make a case.

But I don’t think this is about whether they can play in the BCS Championship if they go undefeated, I think the argument should be, what conditions can play into Utah’s favor to play in the BCS Championship?

I mean, let’s be honest here. If the top 10 teams on the BCS rankings suddenly LOSE two games, then you HAVE to put Utah in the Championship, right? Know, I know that’s not likely to happen, but you have to think about situations that could get Utah into the National Championship.

What are the chances of them jumping over 9 teams to at least get in position to get a shot? Well, who’s #10? Florida.

This is going to be interesting because Florida has to play 5 teams with current winning records (not counting Citadel). Can Florida beat Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Florida State and Vanderbilt, and then play in the SEC Championship against likely Alabama? That’s a tall order, but for Utah to jump over them, Florida needs to lose at least one game…maybe even two. But another loss for Florida would knock them out anyway…is it possible?

# 9 on that list is Ohio State, and with one loss they cannot afford to lose anymore either. Even though they lost to then #1 USC, they have been at the bottom of the top 10 for several weeks. With games against Penn State, Northwestern and Illinois, we will see if they can get back in the game. All things being equal, Ohio State would look better than Utah, so the Utes need Ohio State to fall off the map…but only AFTER they beat Penn State, the team that is currently #3 on the BCS list.

#8 is Texas Tech, and while we are talking about this, we might as well add in #6 Oklahoma State, #4 Oklahoma and #1 Texas. All four of these teams are not only in the same conference, but the same division. So SOMEBODY’S got to fall. But here’s the problem, even if all these teams take one loss, they’d all be better than Utah because the strength of schedule would be so high. I mean, Texas Tech has to play #23 Kansas, then #1 Texas, then #6 Oklahoma State and then #4 Oklahoma. Even if Utah goes undefeated, I think there will be at least 2 teams in the Big 12 that will still have a better BCS ranking then them.

When I mentioned #10 Florida, I should have also mentioned #7 Georgia and #2 Alabama, because these teams will fight it out for that SEC Championship. I think it might be Florida and maybe LSU in the SEC Championship, which might clear the way for Utah, but that same spot might be snatched by whoever wins the SEC Championship, unless there is a big upset.

Finally there is USC at #5. With their schedule looking pretty light, and with no Pac-10 Championship, this team could coast to a top spot if the other teams slip. Sometimes it is good to lose early so you can build back into the top 5 or top 3. Utah just has too much ground to cover, and their perfect record will be at least equal to other teams with one loss.

It’s hard folks, very hard, to see Utah in the BCS National Championship. But nothing is impossible…they just need a lot of teams to fall on their faces. If that does not happen, there is just no room for the Utah Utes to get in the BCS Championship. But I DO believe if they go undefeated they should get a BCS bowl…the deserve at least that.