Texas Football and the BCS

Texas Football and the BCS

In light of the Texas Longhorns becoming the new number one team in the nation, it makes sense for us to kinda look at where this could go as far as the BCS is concerned.

As we all know, Texas recently knocked off then #1 Oklahoma and jumped four spots to take the top position in the NCAA Division I. And again, I know they got a new word for it, but the novice sports fan understands what I am talking about.

So, what are Texas’ chances of playing in the Orange Bowl…oops, the Fed-Ex National Championship…

To see where they may go, we have to jump back and see where they have been.

I think many saw this team as a strong Big 12 team this year, even before the season started. A 10-3 team from last year, with a pretty good quarterback and a great coach…and I’m not just saying that because Mack Brown used to be the head coach of the UNC Tarheels…he brought them great success even then.

Last year they lost 3 games, all coming from conference opponents, and two of those games were home games. They had a quarterback in Colt McCoy who threw ALMOST as many interceptions as touchdowns but was still pretty good. You’d think it would be something to build on as the season started.

Two easy wins with big numbers didn’t hurt Texas, but really didn’t make them stand out either. A 52-10 win over Florida Atlantic and 42-13 win over UTEP were ok because they showed that Texas could put points on the board. But they were not being mentioned in the top 5 elite…at that time.

Two wins with the exact same score gave Texas some ranking cred, crushing both Rice and Arkansas 51-10. Few were putting them in that top 5 still, but at the same time, some of the better teams were knocking each other around, which was moving Texas up that ladder. But we still had to see more from this team.

Things started to change when the went to Colorado and beat them 38-14, but the signature mark came last Saturday when they knocked off #1 Oklahoma 45-35. I think that because the game was played earlier (a noon kickoff) it may have persuaded east coast voters to see how good Texas really was. This COULD have influenced the idea of Texas jumping over Alabama, to which many argue. I still think it’s a moot point, because they would have been #1 and #2 anyway.

But now you’ve got to ask yourself, can Texas win the rest of their games? If they do, they are an easy shoe in for the National Title, but what if they lose one game? We know there are a lot of 1-loss teams ready to take that spot, and then you got teams like Penn State that have yet to lose. Texas is walking a thin line here.

So consider the next few games. Texas has two home games against 2 top 25 teams, the first being Missouri, currently ranked #11 on one poll. Then they play Oklahoma State, currently ranked #8. This Missouri game is going to be big because they got kicked out by Oklahoma State just last week, and all chances for a National Title rest on them winning the rest of their games…no more slipups or the BCS Championship is gone for Missouri. Can Texas bring it for this huge game, coming off the other huge game over Oklahoma?

And IF they can, then they’ve got to meet Oklahoma State, a team that beat Texas last year. It’s real hard to have 3 straight heavyweight fights, and you’d like to think Texas can get through this, but the Big 12 is really tough. You’d have to really believe that Texas is THE best team in the nation to get through these next two games. Can they?

And even after that, they’ve got to see #7 Texas Tech in their house? How can anybody possibly make it through these difficult games and NOT lose at least one? Now granted, the jury is still kinda out on Texas Tech, but we know they put a heck of a lot of points on the board. But then, who doesn’t in the Big 12?

After those tough games, they get Baylor, then they have to meet #16 Kansas before meeting Texas A&M. Another ranked team, and they finish the regular season against a team that beat them last year. Folks, this is gonna be really tough.

And IF they can get through all this, and win the division, they play in the SEC Championship against most likely Missouri, if not Kansas…again. Guys….this is tough!

I am one of those guys that think that nobody in the Big 12 or the SEC can possibly get through undefeated, both conferences are just that good. It’s just hard to imagine Texas going undefeated when they’re looking at playing in all likelihood 5 ranked teams and one team that beat them last year at the end of the season. And at this stage of the season, a loss now makes it harder to climb back in the top positions for the title game. If anything, Texas as the strength of schedule working for them, even if they get one loss.

But will a l-loss Texas team be able to play for a National Title? I think right now Penn State could be sitting in the driver’s seat because they don’t have a conference championship, so if either Alabama OR Texas lose one game, Penn State would have a nice seat for that Fed-Ex bowl game…barring they not lose ANY games.

Personally speaking, I think Alabama may lose 2 games, which may take them out of the National Title, but in doing that, I also have to believe that not even Texas can go undefeated. Does Oklahoma jump OVER Texas for that title game, even though they lost to Texas? I can see this IF Texas loses 2 games and Oklahoma runs the table to the Big 12 Championship. But what of other teams lurking in the background?

Florida and BYU are big threats to Texas, although I think strength of schedule might keep BYU out unless everybody else loses 2 games. But if Florida manages to finish off their remaining games and win the SEC Championship, would they deserve a trip to the National Championship? I gotta be honest, their remaining schedule compared to Texas is softer. If for example Penn State finished undefeated, they are in, but if I had to choose between Texas and Florida, I’d have to take Texas because they had a tougher schedule. No knock against Florida, mind you.

So the Texas Longhorns have to handle business the old fashioned way…just win. If they do that, they are guaranteed a National Title game. Lose just ONE game, and it falls on the fates…beware.