College Football teams to be warned....

College teams to be warned!

As we come up on another exciting weekend of college football, the clarity of post season is really not much different than it was a few weeks ago. Theoretically speaking, all 119 teams of the Division I are still eligible for a bowl…yep, even North Texas and Washington, who currently have NO wins. So there is hope for everyone, but that will change starting this weekend.

As such, there are many teams that must heed my warning and gird thy loins, for this weekend can easily turn a team to a path of success…or failure, in one quick afternoon or evening of college football.

So let us begin with my warnings….

Tonight Florida State and NC State will play as both ACC teams struggle to make a post season game. I spoke on this on my blog on Florida State, so I will keep this one short by warning Florida State that if they do not win this game, they may not be seeing any bowl except the cereal bowl in the cafeteria the next morning.

But take heed BYU, your heroics have been called out!

Sure, you’re the #9 team in the nation, but I have heard stories of the soft schedule you have had thus far. Beating Washington seemed good then, but now looks highly suspect. Beating UCLA seemed like a great feather, but now looks like worthless plumage. Are you REALLY as good as you say? If so, prove it now against a worthy opponent in TCU. You remember them, a 1 loss team who was defeated only by Oklahoma. And you are going to THEIR home…I warn you, be careful…

Beware ye of the smurf turf, your perfect season can be in jeopardy.

Boise State hosts Hawaii on Friday, one of a couple of tests for the #15 team in the land. A perfect record won’t get you in the BCS Championship, but it will guarantee a BCS bowl. We know this isn’t the same Hawaii team from last year, but if you play with that same mentality, you’ll find yourselves with your first loss, and likely out of any big-time money bowls.

Take caution, both Wake Forest and Maryland!

The ACC doesn’t scare anybody this year, and there are 9 bowls slotted for ACC teams. Who in the world thought that 9 out of 12 teams were going to qualify for a bowl? At this point there could be only 5, and Maryland desperately needs to steal a couple of wins to make that happen. Wake Forest is almost assured to get a bowl but their eyes are on a greater prize…maybe the Sugar Bowl, but to do that they cannot lose more than 2 games, or else lose the division to maybe Boston College. This is a win Wake Forest needs to stay on pace to the ACC Championship, and a win Maryland needs just to stay alive.

Oh Big East, where is thou sting?

Last year the Big East was supposed to be the up and coming conference of the 6 “big dogs”. But they are average, and two teams fight to maintain that mediocrity. UCONN and Rutgers play just to see some post season games. Connecticut started out great, although many questioned the strength of schedule, but faded with key injuries. It will be a stretch to win 6 quality games and qualify, but it is possible. Rutgers however, must win EVERY game just to qualify…not very likely.

Looks like the same old Rutgers. It is possible they could beat UCONN, but winning 6 of 6 games, not likely.

Let the Huskers of Nebraska hear my words, and be warned!

Playing Texas Tech close showed some promise, but in the end, a loss is still a loss. In fact, THREE losses in a row does not bode well for you, after starting out 3-0. Don’t make me have to use that famous phrase from Dennis Green:

“They are who we THOUGHT they were!”

This game vs. Iowa State is critical because you need 3 wins just to qualify for a bowl. Right now, of your last 6 games, you have a good chance to win 4, which would indeed qualify you for a bowl. But a loss here against Iowa State means you have no more margin for error to get to a bowl, and your chances to play in the Big 12 Championship are toast. It’s time for Nebraska to handle their business, or else plan for next year.

Who will warn Ohio State of the Spartans?

A huge game this weekend between #12 Ohio State and #20 Michigan State. We know Penn State is in the driver’s seat at the moment, and the entire conference took a blow to the jaw when USC embarrassed the Buckeyes, but there is still hope. For Ohio State to hope for a shot at that National Title, they have to win out. If they can beat Michigan State this weekend, and Penn State the next, they’d be right back in the mix unless the other teams involved are still without a loss. If ever there was a time to lose, Ohio State picked the best time…early. But lose again, and the door to the BCS Championship slams on your nose.

Be ye warned, both UNC and Virginia!

Although one of my favorite teams, I still must caution UNC and their #18 ranking to be wary of Virginia. Yes that win vs. Notre Dame was delicious, but do not assume that you have “made it” to the elite teams of Division I. I personally think you are guaranteed a bowl because you can surely win 2 more games (one including Duke). Fear not UNC, you are going bowling this season, but your greater prize of a BCS bowl could be in jeopardy if you overlook Virginia.

But for you, Virginia, there is much to fear. Beating Maryland was impressive, and backing that up with a win over slumping ECU gives hope, but is it enough to get to the post season? You need 4 wins, and the only team that might give you the easiest chance to win is the Clemson Tigers. Every other game you have to fight and claw for, and your margin for error is paper thin.

And finally, beware Navy!

Two quality wins against Wake Forest and Air Force has you riding high and almost assured of that Eaglebank bowl (or Constitutional bowl, whatever they call that), but your schedule looks very interesting. If the Towson game does not count as a legit Division I win (since Towson is not a Division I team) then you need 3 more wins to qualify. I see no trouble with Temple and SMU, but if Pittsburgh is as good as advertised, you might be 6-3 before you see Notre Dame. Remember, if that Towson game does not count, you are actually 5-3.

If you lose to Notre Dame, then that Northern Illinois game is your best chance to qualify for a bowl, because all bets are off when you play Army. You DO realize the tight rope you are walking here, don’t you? But a win vs. Pittsburgh will virtually guarantee you a bowl…maybe even a better one than you are already slated for.

So many great games…so many to warn…