Thursday, September 25, 2008

Greatest Running Backs EVER....PREPARE!

Best Running Backs EVER: PREPARE!

A few days back I wrote a blog promising the BEST running backs EVER in the NFL. Well, I now have my list and I am ready to reveal to the universe (or whomever cares to read my blogs) the best running back to ever play in the NFL.

I will count them down from 25 to number one…hey, it helps build the suspense!

I mentioned to you about my “formula”; I will explain that as we go along. When I first thought about doing this, I realized that I have my favorites but I didn’t want to try to favor them. So what I did was come up with some characteristics that establish a GREAT running back.

See, we all have our own ideas on what makes the greatest running back ever, so you know that what I share certainly won’t be the “end all” of debates. But what I am going to do is share with you HOW I got my ranking and why each of these legendary backs are where they are.

But to start, I had to justify a formula. I had to come up with 4 basic elements that make a great back. If you read my earlier blog, you already know, but I will go over them again:

The first major element is TEAM ACCOMPLISHMENTS. I mean, what good are you if your team never makes it to a championship or finds some level of success. Guys, football is a TEAM sport, and a great player makes his team great. This is very critical when you want to talk about the best running back ever.

So I broke this element into 3 particular values. I gave 10 points for every Superbowl the back ever won, 5 points for every Superbowl they lost, and 2 points for every Conference Championship they lost. I am rewarding the absolute best a team can achieve, but I also reward those that got there but lost, as well as those who were the elite of their conference.

“But that’s not fair to guys who played BEFORE the Superbowl!”

Don’t worry, I did something for that, I’ll tell you about it when we get there.

The second element is INDIVIDUAL STATS. It makes sense that the greatest have to put up some legendary numbers, right? Even though football is a team game, it is the individuals that make it great. We cannot ignore the greatness of a player, even on an average team.

I broke down this element into 3 sections: Yards gained, touchdowns scored and average yards per carry. Any player that finished #1 gets 10 points for each category, for a total of 30 points. Any player that finishes in the top 5 gets 7 points each. Any running back that finishes in the top 10 gets 5 points each, and any back that finishes in the top 20 gets 3 points each. I also award 1 point for any running back that finishes in the top 30 all time for each of those categories. So the max a running back can get is 30 points here, but only if they are #1 in Yards career, touchdowns career AND average yards per carry.

I also adjusted the average yards per carry to separate the competition a bit. Most guys average about 4 yards, so I decided to award 10 points for any back that averages 5 yards or more per carry, 7 points for any back that averages 4.8 yards per carry, 5 points for any back with 4.6 yards per carry and 3 points for any running back that averages 4.4 yards per carry. I also awarded 1 point for any back that averages 4.2 yard or better per carry.

Theoretically, the values for team accomplishments is still better than this element, but it can add quite a bit to any player’s numbers.

The third element in my formula is INDIVIDUAL AWARDS. I mean, if you are so GREAT, then there should be awards given to you, right? Now I know today they come up with all kinds of silly awards, and if I went purely on what was awarded today, then there would just be too many points given out. So I decided to break this element into 6 parts, banking it off the most prestigious awards given to an NFL player.

To me, the most important award a player can receive is the MVP, whether by the league or as the Superbowl MVP, so I am awarding 10 points for every MVP a running back gets. I also decided to award 5 points for every Offensive MVP, NFC Player of the Year and AFC Player of the Year a player gets. Yeah, I think they stopped doing the conference POY thing, but it still proves superiority, so I awarded that.

I also gave 2 points for Rookie of the Year, and that includes Offensive Rookie of the Year. So a player could get 4 points for being the Offensive Rookie of the Year as well as the overall ROY.

In addition, I also awarded 1 point for every Pro-Bowl that running back was selected for. Note I did not say ALL PRO, just Pro-Bowl.

A great running back should be able to rack up here, picking up a ton of points…if they are GREAT.

Finally, I added in what I call, ERA ADJUSTMENT. Some people may not like this, but I think greatness has to be penalized based on the fact that the players that are out now are generally better in every way than players of old. That does not mean that every running back that is in the NFL now is BETTER than those of the 1970’s, but it does mean that the game has gotten much better. For that reason, I have to deduct points from the “old school”.

What I decided to do was subtract 1 point for every decade of that player from the time he retired. If a running back retired in 2000 or later, I take off NO points. If he retired anywhere between 1990 to 1999, he loses 1 point off his total. If he retired anywhere from 1980 to 1989, he loses 2 points…and so on.

Why is this necessary? Because there has to be a tempering to indicate that the running backs of the NFL have progressed, otherwise someone who played back in 1950 is equal in every way to an athlete who plays now…and we KNOW that isn’t true.

So everything is in place, and now I can begin right?

Special note; don’t get bent out of shape with the results folks, I’m not an MIT or Yale grad, just a sports fan.

Ok, in my research, I wrote down over 60 of some of the most well-known backs in NFL history. I ran my formula for each and tabulated the results. But before I begin, let me give you a couple of names that did not make my top 25 list, and my justification for it.

Christian Okoye: 8 points.

If I did a top 40, he would not be up there because the points are just too low. But why, might you say? I personally LIKED Christian Okoye, I remember how well he played for the Chiefs. I even have some of his football cards. But the formula shows some very obvious flaws as to why he cannot be the greatest of all time, or even on the list of best 25.

First off, there are NO points for team success. Okoye’s team never made the Superbowl or even AFC Championships. If you are great, there has to be some indication in the success of the teams. Second, there are NO individual stat points. He is not on the top 30 in yards, or touchdowns and he averages under 4.2 yards per carry. He actually got 9 points because he went to 2 Pro-bowls and got a couple of awards, but he lost a point because of era adjustment. It’s really a shame because as I understood it, he got out of the sport because he was not enjoying it, in fact, he didn’t like football at first. If he had played a little longer, maybe the Chiefs would have done some things. I still like him though.

Herschel Walker: 2 points

“WHAT??”

I know, I was kinda disappointed myself, Hershel Walker was one of my favorite running backs, but my formula says he is not anywhere near the best in the NFL. Why? Well, like Christian Okoye, he has no real post season experience. No Superbowl or conference championships. Second, he does not rank high on yards or touchdowns, but does average over 4.2 yards, so he gets one point for that. He does not get but 2 points on the Individual awards element, but then loses one point to era adjustment. So 2 points is all he gets.

What this kinda tells me is that sometimes we have ideas of what great is, because we have certain feelings for certain players, but sometimes you have to look at the whole scope of his work in the NFL. This does not mean these two guys are not good, it just means they are not in the realm of the GREATEST. It takes a player that makes his team great, has legendary stats, and wins awards and can survive the tests of time. Only can these guys make my list of the top 25 of ALL TIME.

So, roll out the carpet, it’s time to count them down…..

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