Does Southern Cal have a shot at the BCS?

Can USC get to the BCS Title?

Quick Answer: Sure, they are within shot.

But it becomes slightly more complicated, and it begins with this weekend’s game vs. Notre Dame.

Southern Cal has this thing about losing one game and then getting all fired up for the rest of the year…that has already happened with the loss to Washington. Now with Southern Cal bounced out of the realm of the undefeated, they must claw their way back into the BCS Championship picture, and to be sure, there is time.

But there are several teams that stand in their way. They need only get to either #2, or of course, #1, to grab a part of that BCS shot. Here is the Rogue’s Gallery of foes that USC must overcome in order to get to the BCS Championship:

#25 Notre Dame: I guess whining has its purpose, since Charlie Weiss cried about why the Fighting Irish was not in the top 25...now they are. For USC to make a run, it begins with a road game vs. Notre Dame, and there are some who think it is possible for the Trojans to lose. They are weakest on the road, and this is not the dominant team some thought it was…after all they lost to Washington on the road. Simply put, a second loss destroys any chances to the BCS title game, so this weekend means everything.

Oregon State: Remember these guys…they beat USC last year. But now the Beavers come to visit, and USC needs redemption from that most embarrassing loss. USC tends to play well at home, but OSU has a winning record. The Pac 10 might be very tough to deal with, including their own members. USC can’t have a hangover from this weekend, win or lose to Notre Dame, because the competition rises after that.

#13 Oregon: A road game vs. a top 15 team will be a real test for USC to get back in the mix. If by this time they still have one loss, the wins over ND and OSU will have then inside the top 5. A win here will lock it down as an easy top 5 team, maybe even top 4.

Arizona State: Again, USC is touchable when they get on the road, as if they play down to the level of their competition. ASU is at this moment 3-2, so this is not a cupcake game. It will be interesting to see how this team will keep the intensity after playing three straight major games to them.

Stanford: Technically on the standings they are better than Southern Cal, but that is a technicality. Still, this is a game the Trojans cannot ignore, especially when you are talking about in state rivalries. In fact, by this time USC will be home the rest of the season, with their remaining games being either a home game, or against a team from California.

#5 Boise State: No, the Trojans don’t play them but they still factor into USC’s goal of getting to that title game. If USC continues to win, the strength of schedule will easily overtake Boise State. If Boise State loses even one game, their dreams will be dashed. But if USC can win the remaining games in a tougher conference, they will surely jump over Boise State.

#4 Virginia Tech: This will be another obstacle that USC cannot control. Some say that Virginia Tech might be able to run the tables and lock a BCS Title game. Both teams have one loss, and few will argue that the ACC is just as competitive as the Pac-10. If things stay the way they are, USC will have to go to style points to get some support. Beating their Pac-10 foes by 20 or more will impress the voters to think that if it came down to Virginia Tech and USC, then the Trojans might be slightly better. And with VA Tech’s schedule getting slightly easier, this may be the MO for USC.

#3 Texas: There are probably a ton of Southern Cal fans rooting for Oklahoma this weekend, because a loss to Texas will give USC some hope. If Texas runs the table, an undefeated Longhorns team will have an absolute shot in the Title game…no doubt about it. The Big 12 isn’t as powerful as it was last year, but no one will argue that an undefeated Texas squad is better than a 1 loss USC team. For any hope, USC has to hope that Texas loses at least one game…preferably this weekend.

EITHER #2 Alabama or #1 Florida: This problem will solve itself because these two teams must play each other sometime if they remain undefeated. Although they are not on the regular season schedule, they can meet in the SEC Championship game. USC needs either of these teams to lose to have a shot. They stand a great chance of jumping over the loser of that game than most other circumstances.

So, does USC have a shot…sure they do. It begins now, in winning a road game vs. a top 25 team, but continues in facing several strong opponents in their conference, but it also requires some favor in higher ranking teams losing. If USC does their part, we know they will jump over Boise State…maybe, MAYBE, even Virginia Tech. But to jump into the top 2, they need Texas to lose a game…with Texas playing Oklahoma, and USC playing Notre Dame…lots of things can happen. We shall see.

The Fate of Southern Cal

The Fate of Southern Cal

Well, looks like USC has lost to another team they should have beaten.

But does this change anything about their chances?

Well….let’s talk about that. USC started out crushing San Jose State 56-3, then barely beat Ohio State 18-15, then loses to Washington 16-13. Seems like a downward spiral for the Trojans.

That’s what happens when you go with a freshman quarterback, and have injuries on the team. Granted the loss to Washington was not based on a freshman quarterback, since he was not playing, but what can’t be missed is that this is not the USC team of old, and apparently away games don’t hold too well for them.

And with games vs. California on the horizon, and a Notre Dame team that now thinks they might be able to take shots at the wounded lion, this could be a problem for USC’s hopes to get to the BCS. So, is it over for a UCS team to make it to the National Championships?

Hard to say.

For us to buy into USC still in the hunt, we first have to remember where they are. They are currently ranked #12 in one poll, and #10 in another. This means they need some help from other teams to fall out, so they can climb back in. As it stands right now, the biggest game left on USC’s schedule is against California, which is coming fast.

So your question would then be, IF USC can hold off Cal, and finish the season, who then are the most likely teams to fall out the top 10, and thus allow USC to slip back in the top 10 and further up the ladder.

There are at this moment FOUR SEC teams ahead of USC, and you just know that won’t last. They have to play each other, and between Florida, Alabama, Mississippi and LSU, there will be “L”s handed out. And the fact that they have a conference championship means they will settle it out once and for all, leaving USC able to slip a few spots up the ladder.

You have to wonder if Miami is for real, being now ranked #9 in one poll. I just can’t buy into that now, especially with two very tough games ahead of them before sinking into the ACC schedule. As much as I would like to think Miami can hang in there, I can’t see it.

The same would hold true for Virginia Tech, as the ACC has brutally beaten each other last year, and I don’t see how that would change this year. I can’t see anybody from the ACC going undefeated, so even one loss will drop them to the point where USC could jump them.

Remember, this is based on USC running the tables, and their chances of getting back at a BCS Championship.

From the Big 12 you have a wounded Oklahoma and #2 Texas. We KNOW they have to play, and it looks like the favorites will be Texas. If so, then Oklahoma, with two losses, is out of any BCS Title game…but if Texas LOSES, what then?

Is Penn State beatable? As good as I think they are, I still don’t think they can run the tables in the Big 10. One loss, maybe two, but I just can’t see them going undefeated. But one loss might not kill their shots at the BCS if other things happen.

And what of Boise State? Their win over Fresno State shows that they are touchable, but with the weak conference they are in, it would be hard to see them losing. Yet when the BCS rankings come out, I wonder if Boise State will be penalized for such a soft schedule. I said in another blog about Boise State, scheduling UC Davis and Miami Ohio isn’t the way to go if you REALLY want to compete for a National Championship, it might cost them when the first BCS polls come out later this season.

So, having said all this, does USC have a legit shot? Yeah, because the season is still young. I mean, if USC can lose…so can anybody else, right. I mean, Florida barely won their game, BYU lost, Utah lost, so we seem to have a pretty competitive season so far…anything is possible.

So Southern Cal is still in the mix….for now.

USC vs Ohio State

USC vs. Ohio State

Speedblog

Sounds like a Rose Bowl to me.

In about half an hour, college football starts on the second week, and I wanted to blog this out as fast as I can, or as fast as I can type. I heard and read all the hype about this major game, and the implications it has on the BCS. And I grant you, many teams in the top 10 and top 15 are eyeballing this game, because the loser of this game will slip down, and possibly out the BCS Championship picture.

Ohio State has a huge burden to bear, not just for the coach or the team, but the conference as well. Many people have criticized the Big 10 as not being as tough as the SEC or Big 12, and how many times these schools fold up like a lawn chair in the post season…Ohio State being case number one.

Losing at USC 35-3 was embarrassing as the Buckeyes hauled their behinds back home, licking their wounds, and would lose to conference foe Penn State and to Texas at the end of the year. Losing Chris Wells hurts them too, meaning that Terrelle Pryor (not to be confused with Richard) will be bearing a lot of the weight.

We saw how Ohio State survived Navy…this leaves MUCH to be desired. But to play at home, with a more experience quarterback could be what the doctor ordered. There is no question to Pryor’s talents, but he does not throw the ball very much. It reminds me a lot of Georgia Tech’s game with Clemson…but we saw how disastrous that could be.

This is a MAJOR game for Ohio State on every level. The conference needs to have something to brag about, the team needs to have this win and the players need some “get back” against the Trojans who spanked them like they stole something.

For USC, this is not so easy a task, regardless of how they did last year. Some question the strength of the Pac-10, especially after Oregon lost to Boise State recently. We know the Trojans lost only one game last year, that being to Oregon State in an away game, which is one of the weaknesses of USC…playing away against good teams. Not counting Stanford and UCLA since they are in the same state, USC went to Virginia, Washington State and Arizona last year. Washington State was 2-11, Virginia finished 5-7 and Arizona was the only team with a winning record…but USC escaped that one 17-10.

There could be a problem here with USC playing away against strong foes, and add to that a brand new quarterback, and this could really get interesting. Sure USC mopped up San Jose State, but they were SUPPOSED to. Now we’ll get to see how a top ranked team plays on the road where they have had problems, against a real quality team in Ohio State, in that HUGE stadium that holds more people than the city I live in TIMES three, with a freshman quarterback at the helm…

Good luck USC, you’re gonna need it.

But how much luck will they need against a Buckeye team that had trouble with Navy? I admit that the style Navy showed is not what USC will bring, so I think Ohio State can adjust easily, but the question will be whether Pryor can get the job done without “Beanie’ Wells being there. I am not confident that Pryor can lead his team if it comes to passing, and I think USC has a strong enough defense to force him to have to throw more than they need him to.

This might be closer than some think, but you have to decide which is greater, a team with a freshman quarterback playing away against a top 10 foe, or a team that was blasted last year by this same opponent, and struggled against Navy in a conference some are starting to question. I think I will take experience in QB, but I am not confident in his passing.

IF USC can’t force Pryor to throw more, I can see Ohio State winning by less than 7 points. IF he is forced to throw a lot, I can see turnovers galore…but the same could be said for USC. I think if both teams play at even par…USC still wins.

But not by much.

Southern Cal in BCS

Southern Cal in National Championships?

I was watching some of my favorite shows (“Around the Horn” and “PTI”) and there was talk about USC and Head Coach Pete Carroll. It appears he thinks the BCS “stinks”.

I wonder why?

Is it because his team isn’t IN it at this moment? Gosh, why is it that people whine so much about stuff when they are outside, looking in. It’s sour grapes and you’d think USC could bridle their tongue and let things play out.

Right now, in the current BCS Standings, Southern Cal is ranked #7 and out of the BCS Championship…so naturally there is a lot of whining going on. What’s next, will Notre Dame cry about how they ought to get an automatic BCS bowl if they have a winning record?

Come on guys, let things play out before you start saying what “stinks”.

But let’s examine the pros and cons of USC getting to the National Championship, shall we? The BCS has them at #7, what then are the credible wins and losses (albeit one loss) for this team, and how strong is the Pac-10 to support this record?

That first win over Virginia looked decent, then we saw the Cavaliers slump and then questioned the strength of this win for USC. But recently Virginia has turned it on, and with some help they just might get in a bowl.

The second win over then #5 Ohio State was huge and seemed to show that this was THE team to beat…but the Buckeyes have fallen a little too, though still quite tough. Don’t take anything away from USC on this one, but the Big 10 is slowly developing a bad rep of “losing the big ones”.

Then there’s the Oregon State loss, which dropped USC like a hot rock. All that talk about them being unbeatable came crashing down, and brought the Trojans back to earth. It seemed that the chance for a National Title was over.

Then came the rebirth and the stomping of then #23 ranked Oregon 44-10. This was the beginning of an insane run to get back in the top spots for the Trojans. Shutting out Arizona State and Washington State before allowing Arizona only 10 points got USC back in the top 10 but there were just too many other good teams ranked above them. Last week’s win over poor Washington has USC right where it is now.

This is a pretty decent conference, the Pac-10, but USC’s wins over Washington, Washington State and Arizona State are not impressive. Those three teams are 3-22, so who are you impressing by beating them by 498 points a game? Yet we can counter with the Oregon State and Oregon games, and we cannot ignore Ohio State and surging Virginia. At the very least, this is a good team.

And consider, they play #21 California next, and it is likely they believe they need to crush them by at least 50 to sway some votes…style points as they like to say. Games against Stanford and UCLA won’t mean much, and the Notre Dame game might be about style points too.

So what can USC do to get to the BCS. The simplest answer is simply to win, but there is more to it. We know the team that has the best shot right now is Penn State because like USC there is no conference championship and their remaining schedule isn’t as tough as the SEC or Big 12.

We also know that between Texas Tech, Texas and Oklahoma, there is going to be a few more losses to pass around. Nobody sees Texas Tech going undefeated, so their reign as #2 is limited, and some even think Oklahoma can beat Texas Tech. But it might appear that Texas might actually still have the inside track to the BCS Championship. USC needs each of these teams to lose one more game.

And between Alabama and Florida, well nobody believes Alabama going undefeated either. At the beginning of the year, I would have given LSU a 90% chance of winning against Alabama, but I am not that confident in that…maybe a 55% chance. But even if Alabama gets by that, Florida will likely take them down. But if so, does this mean Florida takes the spot USC has their eyes on?

There may be lots left to play in the season, but even more would have to happen for USC, even with one loss, to get in the National Championship. That’s why Pete is singing the blues. But here’s a thought that maybe Pete Carroll, USC and the Pac-10 ought to do…

Change the conference to 12 teams.

Peel off a team from the WAC and MWC and make the Pac-10 into the Pac-12. That way you get the benefit of a conference championship, which can further make your record legitimate (not to mention the money on sponsors). I would also suggest the WAC and MWC consider joining up again but that is another story.

So does Pete Carroll have a point? Does the BCS stink because his Trojans are on the outside looking in? Maybe, but before you cry about the spilt milk, first wait until the milk has been spilt. There are still games to play, and by both computers and human polls, USC is NOT the best team in the NCAA…nor second…

Or third….

Or fourth….