The NEW BCS: Florida score
In an attempt to make a case about who the REAL best teams in college football are, I came up with a formula that awards points to teams based on 24 different categories. In a foolish attempt to try this out, I decided to see how the top teams would fare in my formula, and where they might land after the first week of the BCS scores have come out.
We start first with the number one team, Florida, and will give points based on the following, and add (or subtract) at the end.
Factor #1 Wins: You get 20 points for every win you have, because this is one of the most significant factors in college football…you must WIN your games. Nobody cares for a team with 2 or 3 losses, we want to see undefeated teams in the BCS Championship (in theory). Florida is 6-0, so that is 6 X 20, or 120 points thus far.
Factor #2 Home wins: I award 7 points for every home win because it seems to be more important to defend your house than to play on the road. These points are added to the current total. Since Florida has 4 home wins, that makes 7 X 4, or 28 points more.
Factor #3 Road wins: I give 5 points for every road game, making it important, but not as important to home wins. Florida gets 2 X 5, or 10 more points added to their score.
That makes a total so far of 158 points.
Factor #4 Conference wins: It is critical for any team to win their conference games, and Florida has won 4 conference games thus far. I award 7 points per conference win, so 7 X 4= 28 more points.
Factor #5 Non Conference wins: I don’t award as many points for this because a non conference win may be against anybody, so I give only 3 points per win. Florida gets 2 X 3 or 6 more points for this factor.
Factor #6 Non FCS win: Here, you actually LOSE points for playing a team that does not factor into a serious championship. You lose 2 points for every “cupcake” you schedule. Florida actually loses 2 points for playing Charleston Southern.
So far the total is 192, but minus those 2 points, they have 190 points.
Factor #7 Wins over top 5 teams: After wins with 20 points each, this is the second most important factor, awarding 10 points for every team you beat that was in the top five at that time. Because Florida did beat LSU when they were #4, they get an additional 10 points.
Factor #8 Win over a team 6-10: Normally I award 7 points, but Florida gets no points at this point in time, having beaten no team ranked 6-10 yet.
Factor #9 Win over a team 11-15: Normally I award 5 points, but Florida does not yet qualify.
Factor #10 Win over a team 16-25. Normally I award 3 points, but Florida does not yet qualify.
So far Florida has 200 points.
Factor #11 Win over a team +.500: I give 7 points for every team that is CURRENTLY over .500. At this moment there are 2 teams over .500 that Florida has defeated, so they get 7 X 2, or 14 points
Factor #12 Wins over a .500 team. 3 points for beating average teams, and Florida has beaten 3 such teams. This means 3 X 3 or 9 more points.
Factor #13 Wins over a -.500 team. You actually lose 2 points for every sub par team you beat. Because this only includes Charleston Southern, they lose only 2 points.
So that brings Florida to 223, minus 2 points, for a total of 221 points.
Factor #14 Wins by +16: I award points for domination, and if a team can win by more than two possessions, they get one point for every win. Each win counts once in the factor, so if a team won by 40 points, they are put in a higher factor. At this point, Florida has beaten no team by 16 plus for the 1 point bonus. They have won by larger margins, so they will be slotted for more points.
Factor #15 Wins by +24 points: I award 3 points for every win over 24 points. The win over Kentucky qualifies, since it is over 24 points. So Florida gets +3 for that win.
Factor #16 Wins by +36 points: I award 5 points for every win of more than 36 points. Florida has 2 games where they won by such a margin, so they get 5 X 2,or 10 more points.
This brings them to a total so far of 234 points.
Factor #17 Top 5 passing: If a team is in the top 5 in EITHER yards or touchdowns, they get 5 more points, for as much as 10 additional points. At this point, Florida does not qualify for any points.
Factor #18 top 10 passing: If a team is in the top 10 in EITHER yards or touchdowns, they get 3 points for each, for as much as 6 additional points. At this point, Florida does not qualify for any points.
Factor #19 Top 20 passing team: If a team is in the top 20 in EITHER yards or touchdowns, they get one point for each, for as much as 2 additional points. At this point, Florida does not qualify for any points.
Factor #20 Top 5 rushing team: If a team is in the top 5 in EITHER yards or touchdowns, they get 5 points for each, for as much as 10 additional points. At this point, Florida does not qualify for any points.
Factor #21 Top 10 rushing team: Same as top 10 passing. Florida qualifies for 3 points.
Factor #22 Top 20 rushing team: Same as top 20 passing. Florida qualifies for no points.
So far, the score remains at 234 points, plus the 3 points from factor #21 for a total of 237 points.
Factor #23 Defense gives up under 16 a game: I award 2 points for every game where the defense gives up UNDER 16 points. Each game qualifies either under factor #23 or factor #24. Florida has one game where the defense gave up 13 points, so they get an additional 2 points for that game.
Factor #24 Defense gives up under 8 a game: I award 5 points for every game where the defense gives up UNDER 8 points. Each game qualifies either under factor #23 or factor #24. Florida has four games that qualify, having their defense allow under 8 per game, so they get 4 X 5, or 20 points.
The overall total would give Florida 247 points.
If I ran the same formula for Texas, I would get 238 points.
Alabama would have 297 points, but remember, they have 7 games, whereas Florida and Texas have 6.
So where would a team like Boise State fit right now?
They would have 225 points.
So if I used my formula, my top four would be Alabama, Florida, Texas and Boise State…but that is only based on this week, and the fact that Alabama has played one more game than the others. One game can get you as much as 70+ points in a win, so it’s not that Alabama is so far ahead of everybody else. And with other undefeated teams like Cincinnati and Iowa, and good 1-loss teams like USC, this isn’t etched in stone.
But what it does, at least for me, is use many points which make up a great team, not just opinions based on what we like or dislike. I realize it may be a little complicated, but next time I will share more teams and how they might fit in my new BCS formula. And because it changes weekly, this is not going to stay the same by any means.
Tune in and we’ll look at a few other teams and see where they REALLY fit in.
Showing posts with label Florida Football. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Florida Football. Show all posts
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
Saturday, October 10, 2009
Florida Gators vs LSU Tigers
Florida vs. LSU
This is a huge matchup where win or lose, Texas is sitting back and smiling. To Texas, they probably feel that if they can just let the SEC beat each other up, they will assure themselves of at the very least, a #2 spot on the polls. If LSU beats Florida, the Texas (assuming they win today as well) becomes the clear #1 team in the land. If not, they still hold on to #2.
Last year this contest might not have been so academic, but this year is different. With LSU now #4 in the polls, and with Florida, currently #1 but with some quarterback issues, AND playing at LSU, this can be a game that could knock Florida from the ranks of the undefeated.
Who has the advantage?
Florida comes in the defending National Champs, and to date is undefeated. The last time they lost was to Mississippi, and haven’t lost since. In fact their closest game was the National Championship game to Oklahoma, where they won by 7 points.
This year they had 3 home games, including the win over Tennessee, and their last game was a big time win over Kentucky on the road, but it may have cost them dearly, with starting quarterback Tim Tebow getting a concussion. Fortunately they had a bye week and had some time to get ready, but was it enough time? Some question whether Tebow should play, some say to lean to caution, but some insinuate that they will get him to play because it is a big time game.
The question they all have is whether their star player can play.
On the other side, LSU has risen in the ranks mainly because there had been so many upsets this year already. Remember, LSU was 8-5 last year, and one of those loses was on the road at Florida by 30. They also lost big to Georgia at home, then to Mississippi, Alabama and Arkansas…that’s 5 conference loses, and three of those were AT home.
To date, LSU beat Washington on the road 31-23, then beat Vanderbilt and Louisiana-Layfayette. They beat Mississippi State on the road by only 4, and then there’s that controversial (as utterly STUPID) call by the refs during the Georgia game that could very well have cost them that game. But LSU wins and runs out of the state like they stole something.
(mind you, I AM an LSU fan)
It seems that LSU is barely getting by these games, because outside of Georgia, none of these teams currently have a winning record, and we know how that Georgia game went down. Yes a win is a win, but the QUALITY of the win determines if LSU is truly a top 5 power, or a top 25 power. Now you can argue that Florida’s only foe thus far with a winning record was Troy, but I counter immediately by saying that this IS the defending NATIONAL CHAMPS. We know this is a great team.
I think the question comes down to 1) can Florida beat LSU with any quarterback, and 2) can a team that lost 5 games in LSU, all conference games, beat the defending National Champs. Beating Auburn and Mississippi State says nothing, since they won about 4 or 5 games last year, and beating South Carolina was a close game as well.
Folks, I think whether Tebow plays or not, the Florida Gators may be good enough to beat LSU, remember, this is a team that didn’t exactly protect their house last year, losing 3 home games and some of those other home games were a little too close for comfort.
But the X factor is emotion, how will LSU feel to have a chance to knock off the number one team in the land? It is quite possible that this could be part one of a two parter, since they could easily meet again in the SEC Championship. I am an LSU fan, and I have my LSU hat, but I think that with or without Tim Tebow, Florida has the advantage, and can win by 7 points….but if Tebow is healthy, this could be a 14 point win.
This is a huge matchup where win or lose, Texas is sitting back and smiling. To Texas, they probably feel that if they can just let the SEC beat each other up, they will assure themselves of at the very least, a #2 spot on the polls. If LSU beats Florida, the Texas (assuming they win today as well) becomes the clear #1 team in the land. If not, they still hold on to #2.
Last year this contest might not have been so academic, but this year is different. With LSU now #4 in the polls, and with Florida, currently #1 but with some quarterback issues, AND playing at LSU, this can be a game that could knock Florida from the ranks of the undefeated.
Who has the advantage?
Florida comes in the defending National Champs, and to date is undefeated. The last time they lost was to Mississippi, and haven’t lost since. In fact their closest game was the National Championship game to Oklahoma, where they won by 7 points.
This year they had 3 home games, including the win over Tennessee, and their last game was a big time win over Kentucky on the road, but it may have cost them dearly, with starting quarterback Tim Tebow getting a concussion. Fortunately they had a bye week and had some time to get ready, but was it enough time? Some question whether Tebow should play, some say to lean to caution, but some insinuate that they will get him to play because it is a big time game.
The question they all have is whether their star player can play.
On the other side, LSU has risen in the ranks mainly because there had been so many upsets this year already. Remember, LSU was 8-5 last year, and one of those loses was on the road at Florida by 30. They also lost big to Georgia at home, then to Mississippi, Alabama and Arkansas…that’s 5 conference loses, and three of those were AT home.
To date, LSU beat Washington on the road 31-23, then beat Vanderbilt and Louisiana-Layfayette. They beat Mississippi State on the road by only 4, and then there’s that controversial (as utterly STUPID) call by the refs during the Georgia game that could very well have cost them that game. But LSU wins and runs out of the state like they stole something.
(mind you, I AM an LSU fan)
It seems that LSU is barely getting by these games, because outside of Georgia, none of these teams currently have a winning record, and we know how that Georgia game went down. Yes a win is a win, but the QUALITY of the win determines if LSU is truly a top 5 power, or a top 25 power. Now you can argue that Florida’s only foe thus far with a winning record was Troy, but I counter immediately by saying that this IS the defending NATIONAL CHAMPS. We know this is a great team.
I think the question comes down to 1) can Florida beat LSU with any quarterback, and 2) can a team that lost 5 games in LSU, all conference games, beat the defending National Champs. Beating Auburn and Mississippi State says nothing, since they won about 4 or 5 games last year, and beating South Carolina was a close game as well.
Folks, I think whether Tebow plays or not, the Florida Gators may be good enough to beat LSU, remember, this is a team that didn’t exactly protect their house last year, losing 3 home games and some of those other home games were a little too close for comfort.
But the X factor is emotion, how will LSU feel to have a chance to knock off the number one team in the land? It is quite possible that this could be part one of a two parter, since they could easily meet again in the SEC Championship. I am an LSU fan, and I have my LSU hat, but I think that with or without Tim Tebow, Florida has the advantage, and can win by 7 points….but if Tebow is healthy, this could be a 14 point win.
Thursday, September 17, 2009
Will Florida CRUSH Tennessee?
Should Florida CRUSH Tennessee?
This is a hard question for me, because I have some biases about this game. First off, I live in ACC country, so to talk about SEC matchups is kinda odd to begin with. But there is no question that the SEC is better, it has been proven several times in the last few years.
But this Tennessee vs. Florida game is pretty big because there is a promise of a major beat down. But my problem is that Lane Kiffin, the head coach of Tennessee, is a former Oakland Raider coach…and I am a HEAVY Raider fan.
And I felt sorry for how Monty Burns….er….Al Davis, ran him out of the NFL. At that time he looked like the guy that was stepped on by the mean ole grumpy businessman, and had a lot of sympathy votes. So when Tennessee called him up, it just seemed like the great fit.
And I was a very big fan of Tennessee, I have always admired their very strong fan base and they have been a great team up until recently. But I personally felt that the alumni of Tennessee was too hasty in getting rid of their former head coach because they wanted to be in the National Title hunt every single year. It lends to the phrase, “what have you done for me lately”…of which Janet Jackson made famous years ago.
I lost respect for Tennessee for getting rid of a good coach, and hiring one with virtually NO experience…this just didn’t really add up unless they were hoping that Lane Kiffin’s NFL aura could recruit more talent to Tennessee.
So I have mixed feelings for the Volunteers. I have admired the school for a long time, but lately I kinda feel like they listened to rich alumni rather than being patient. But it didn’t help one bit when Kiffin stepped into the college spotlight by opening his big mouth about what Tennessee was going to do.
What is his pedigree in winning…mind you, not his dad’s but Lane himself? How can a guy that had a bad record with the Raiders can come across the country and pop his chops as if he won the Superbowl? Come on now, being confident is one thing…being arrogant is quite another.
So now Lane Kiffin has written a check that is bigger than the stadium he coaches in…not very wise. Sometimes when coaches get God-like egos, it is nice to see it popped. When Steve Spurrier was the head coach at Florida, he used to run up the score a lot. When he got the head coach’s job for the Washington Redskins, he thought he could do the same thing during preseason, but learned a HUGE lesson about doing that. His coaching career didn’t last so long in the NFL…
So now Lane Kiffin has called the thunder, of the best team in the country, and playing in the “Swamp”, with a team that was 5-7 last year, already lost their first game of the season, and playing Florida, who beat them handily last year in their own house. Does this smell like a legendary beat down to you?
It ought to.
And I gotta tell you, I am not the biggest Florida fan, since I like Florida State more, but I have no problem cheering for Florida this year. Tim Tebow has been like the ray of sunshine to the sport, and all I ever hear is good things about him. I have to give major props to the coach, because Urban Meyer is trying to prepare his quarterback for the NFL, rather than just running the same system. This is a man that is trying to help his player, who helped them win a National Championship. I see nothing but honor in that.
I remember years ago when Emmitt Smith was playing for Florida, when Steve Spurrier took over. It was said that the “ole ball coach” told Smith that if he was going to play on the Gator team, he had to play it HIS way…so Emmitt Smith decided to go pro a little earlier…and the rest as they say…is history for Emmitt Smith, but for Steve Spurrier as well, both having legendary careers.
For a long time I didn’t like Florida, not really hate them (come on folks, it’s just a game) but up until recently I have set a place in my heart for Florida. I like the way they play and they seem to be as professional as students can be.
So, if you asked me who I am pulling for, I would say Florida…BIG. I think beating Tennessee by 35 points would be an understatement. If they were playing at Tennessee, the score would be less, but at home, you don’t have to show any mercy to anybody. Lane Kiffin will go 1-2 and start to eat those words he spit out when he took to that podium. I see this game possibly ending up maybe 45-10, maybe even higher…
And somewhere in California, Al Davis is laughing and saying… “excellent”, as only Monty Burns could say.
Good luck on qualifying for a bowl this year Tennessee.
This is a hard question for me, because I have some biases about this game. First off, I live in ACC country, so to talk about SEC matchups is kinda odd to begin with. But there is no question that the SEC is better, it has been proven several times in the last few years.
But this Tennessee vs. Florida game is pretty big because there is a promise of a major beat down. But my problem is that Lane Kiffin, the head coach of Tennessee, is a former Oakland Raider coach…and I am a HEAVY Raider fan.
And I felt sorry for how Monty Burns….er….Al Davis, ran him out of the NFL. At that time he looked like the guy that was stepped on by the mean ole grumpy businessman, and had a lot of sympathy votes. So when Tennessee called him up, it just seemed like the great fit.
And I was a very big fan of Tennessee, I have always admired their very strong fan base and they have been a great team up until recently. But I personally felt that the alumni of Tennessee was too hasty in getting rid of their former head coach because they wanted to be in the National Title hunt every single year. It lends to the phrase, “what have you done for me lately”…of which Janet Jackson made famous years ago.
I lost respect for Tennessee for getting rid of a good coach, and hiring one with virtually NO experience…this just didn’t really add up unless they were hoping that Lane Kiffin’s NFL aura could recruit more talent to Tennessee.
So I have mixed feelings for the Volunteers. I have admired the school for a long time, but lately I kinda feel like they listened to rich alumni rather than being patient. But it didn’t help one bit when Kiffin stepped into the college spotlight by opening his big mouth about what Tennessee was going to do.
What is his pedigree in winning…mind you, not his dad’s but Lane himself? How can a guy that had a bad record with the Raiders can come across the country and pop his chops as if he won the Superbowl? Come on now, being confident is one thing…being arrogant is quite another.
So now Lane Kiffin has written a check that is bigger than the stadium he coaches in…not very wise. Sometimes when coaches get God-like egos, it is nice to see it popped. When Steve Spurrier was the head coach at Florida, he used to run up the score a lot. When he got the head coach’s job for the Washington Redskins, he thought he could do the same thing during preseason, but learned a HUGE lesson about doing that. His coaching career didn’t last so long in the NFL…
So now Lane Kiffin has called the thunder, of the best team in the country, and playing in the “Swamp”, with a team that was 5-7 last year, already lost their first game of the season, and playing Florida, who beat them handily last year in their own house. Does this smell like a legendary beat down to you?
It ought to.
And I gotta tell you, I am not the biggest Florida fan, since I like Florida State more, but I have no problem cheering for Florida this year. Tim Tebow has been like the ray of sunshine to the sport, and all I ever hear is good things about him. I have to give major props to the coach, because Urban Meyer is trying to prepare his quarterback for the NFL, rather than just running the same system. This is a man that is trying to help his player, who helped them win a National Championship. I see nothing but honor in that.
I remember years ago when Emmitt Smith was playing for Florida, when Steve Spurrier took over. It was said that the “ole ball coach” told Smith that if he was going to play on the Gator team, he had to play it HIS way…so Emmitt Smith decided to go pro a little earlier…and the rest as they say…is history for Emmitt Smith, but for Steve Spurrier as well, both having legendary careers.
For a long time I didn’t like Florida, not really hate them (come on folks, it’s just a game) but up until recently I have set a place in my heart for Florida. I like the way they play and they seem to be as professional as students can be.
So, if you asked me who I am pulling for, I would say Florida…BIG. I think beating Tennessee by 35 points would be an understatement. If they were playing at Tennessee, the score would be less, but at home, you don’t have to show any mercy to anybody. Lane Kiffin will go 1-2 and start to eat those words he spit out when he took to that podium. I see this game possibly ending up maybe 45-10, maybe even higher…
And somewhere in California, Al Davis is laughing and saying… “excellent”, as only Monty Burns could say.
Good luck on qualifying for a bowl this year Tennessee.
Wednesday, September 9, 2009
Why is Florida #1
Why is Florida #1?
Speedblog
After the initial week of the glorious college football season, there may well be a debate why Florida is ranked #1 in the nation. Let’s debate that.
Now I am not sitting here as a super Florida fan, but I have sense enough to know that at worst, the Gators are one of the best teams in the land. And sure, they played a cupcake, but every team has one or two in their schedule. Hey, back in the “good ole days” some college played HIGH SCHOOL teams…check Michigan’s records for example.
(note: that was WAY back in the day folks, when college football was very young)
So, does Florida deserve to be the best ranked team in the nation? Sure, I have absolutely no argument about this because they are coming off a National Championship, meaning they WERE the best team in the country.
And as the famous Ric Flair said, “in order to BE the man, you gotta BEAT the man” and that “man” is a Gator. So yeah, I have no problems with Florida being where they are.
A second reason is because the season is still extremely young. Nobody is playing in the BCS this week, because there is far too much that can happen. It’s funny because some people already have Boise State in the BCS after one win, not likely folks.
In order for a team like Boise State to hope to get there, teams like Florida has to lose. And to me, even if they lose one game, they are still better than Boise State. Now granted the Gators have another tasty cupcake in Troy, and then play shaky Tennessee, so we could easily be looking at a 3-0 team, even 4-0 when they see Kentucky.
But this is not guaranteed, we need only look at Oklahoma to see that injuries can change ANY team from superior to average an the blink of an eye. And there may be a few questions about who is the prime receiver for Florida. Hey, they ALL looked good when playing Charleston Southern…how about when they get to conference play?
We’ll know all soon enough, but for me, the Gators are right where they should be.
Speedblog
After the initial week of the glorious college football season, there may well be a debate why Florida is ranked #1 in the nation. Let’s debate that.
Now I am not sitting here as a super Florida fan, but I have sense enough to know that at worst, the Gators are one of the best teams in the land. And sure, they played a cupcake, but every team has one or two in their schedule. Hey, back in the “good ole days” some college played HIGH SCHOOL teams…check Michigan’s records for example.
(note: that was WAY back in the day folks, when college football was very young)
So, does Florida deserve to be the best ranked team in the nation? Sure, I have absolutely no argument about this because they are coming off a National Championship, meaning they WERE the best team in the country.
And as the famous Ric Flair said, “in order to BE the man, you gotta BEAT the man” and that “man” is a Gator. So yeah, I have no problems with Florida being where they are.
A second reason is because the season is still extremely young. Nobody is playing in the BCS this week, because there is far too much that can happen. It’s funny because some people already have Boise State in the BCS after one win, not likely folks.
In order for a team like Boise State to hope to get there, teams like Florida has to lose. And to me, even if they lose one game, they are still better than Boise State. Now granted the Gators have another tasty cupcake in Troy, and then play shaky Tennessee, so we could easily be looking at a 3-0 team, even 4-0 when they see Kentucky.
But this is not guaranteed, we need only look at Oklahoma to see that injuries can change ANY team from superior to average an the blink of an eye. And there may be a few questions about who is the prime receiver for Florida. Hey, they ALL looked good when playing Charleston Southern…how about when they get to conference play?
We’ll know all soon enough, but for me, the Gators are right where they should be.
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