Showing posts with label Cincinnati Football. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Cincinnati Football. Show all posts

Saturday, November 21, 2009

2010 Orange Bowl

2010 Orange Bowl

A quick blog about this year’s Orange Bowl, because it might have some interesting bits about it.

This year, or season if you will, the Orange Bowl has the top spot of the BCS bowls, meaning they get to select first the teams they want to play in their bowl AFTER the BCS Championship is made. I want to take a moment to say how tasteless the ROSE BOWL is acting, where they continue to get what they want without working with the other 3 bowls. Jerks.

Anyway, to give you an idea of who could be playing in that Orange Bowl, consider first that the selection process begins AFTER the BCS is determined. Now we know at this moment Florida and Alabama both are 1 and 2, but we know that will change because they must play each other. (let’s not also forget they both had QUESTIONABLE calls to keep them undefeated…)

But for sake of argument, lets assume Alabama loses to Florida in the SEC Championship. If so then it is safe to assume Texas plays Florida in the BCS Championship, right. So how does that affect the Orange Bowl?

Once that game is set, the Orange Bowl gets to pick the two teams it would like in their bowl game. But because of the Rose Bowl, they can’t touch the best Pac-10 and Big 10, because they are obligated to the Rose bowl. This would take out Oregon and Ohio State…at this moment.

So now the Orange Bowl has its pick of everybody else, including Cincinnati, TCU, Boise State and Alabama. But here is a tricky part…they are contractually obligated to the ACC Champion…which at this moment could be Georgia Tech.

Now that is not a bad choice, since GA Tech is in the mix for the top 10, but the Orange Bowl would be losing some power by taking a #7 team when it can have a #4 vs. #5. So the Orange bowl has to find an opponent for Georgia Tech.

They would likely have some good options with TCU, Cincinnati and Boise State, or even Alabama. None of those schools are obligated anywhere else, so the Orange Bowl would love to have any of those. But I don’t see them picking Boise State, they are just too far out there to guarantee heavy ticket sales… and yes folks, it is about the money for these bowls. I wonder if TCU might be a stretch as well. To me, I think the Orange Bowl might try to snatch undefeated Cincinnati to make this a very good game. By doing that, they might actually do the Sugar and Fiesta bowls a favor, allowing the Fiesta to take EITHER Boise or TCU (not both, since they played last year).

So right now, it looks like the Orange Bowl could be Georgia Tech vs. Cincinnati… if all holds out.

Friday, October 23, 2009

Naysayers of Cincinnati

Any Naysayers of Cincinnati?

Speedblog

Let’s talk a little about Cincinnati…and I don’t mean the BENGALS!

I am pleased to this point about Cincinnati, because I think the media did the Big East an injustice by omitting the ENTIRE conference from the top 25 poll. To me, that is foolish to think that no team in the Big East could be considered to be one of the top 25 teams in the nation.

This seems to show how stupid voters are, when they omit a team that last year, won 11 games. Now I know other teams like Ball State won 12 and stuff like that there, but any team from a BCS conference that had 11 wins last year ought to at least been put on the top 25 at the beginning. If you are foolish enough to put Notre Dame up there for 7 weak wins last year, you ought to have put Cincinnati up there at the beginning of the year.

But they didn’t so the Big East got no love. And all Cincinnati did was fight their way up the rankings up to #5 on the BCS and AP Polls. Personally, I think Cincinnati is right where they need to be, as my New BCS Formula had, at this moment, Alabama, Iowa, Florida, Texas, Cincinnati, Boise State and TCU, in that order… but if you read my blogs on this, you know that Alabama and Iowa’s scores are based on the fact that they had 7 games, and everybody else had 6.

So Cincinnati is in the mix right now…do they have a shot? What is hurting them at the moment is that their schedule isn’t top notch. Their only quality win against a top 25 opponent was against South Florida. And their next two games are against the bottom feeders of the Big East, so they might slip a bit for that.

But with games vs. West Virginia and Pittsburgh, they need those teams to stay in the top 25, so they’ll have to actually be pulling for them until they face them on the field. As it stands now, Cincinnati needs to play tougher foes to stay a step ahead of Boise state. Remember, one of their 3 losses last year came from Connecticut, so they have to be careful.

I have to think that deep down, the entire Big East conference is pulling for Cincinnati just as the ACC was pulling for Virginia Tech, both conferences need to make a mark in the BCS to validate their strength. Most people felt that these two conferences underachieved last year, which is debatable. But right now, Cincinnati commands respect because we know Alabama and Florida must meet if they continue their paths (SEC Championship) and Texas has to run the tables to the Big 12 Championship. Teams like Cincinnati, UCS and Iowa don’t have conference championships, so it is one less game to worry about. Can the Bearcats get there if they go undefeated? Can they???

Friday, October 16, 2009

Cincinnati in the BCS?

Cincinnati in the BCS?

I didn’t get a chance to blog before the Cincinnati/South Florida game, I wanted to but some things came up. But last night the Bearcats doubled up South Florida 34-17, although it may have cost them their NFL prospect quarterback. (well wishes Pike, get well soon).

But now with them winning, we have an interesting question. ESPN talked about this last night, and the question now is; can Cincinnati qualify and get a BCS Title game?

Actually I think the question is wrong, because that is not the real issue. I mean, right now there are still over 20 teams that have a shot at the title, maybe more. The question is just too vague, because anything can happen from week to week. Although not too likely, it is not out of the realm of possibility that Florida, Alabama, Texas, Boise State, USC, Penn State and Iowa can lose two games.

I didn’t say likely, I said possibly.

I mean, with 6-7 games left for most of these teams, even DUKE has a shot…ugh.

So the question of whether Cincinnati can qualify is a foolish one, because the answer is ABSOLUTELY.

We have to refine that question to something more logical. How about this; what are the chances of Cincinnati becoming one of the two best teams in the nation by the end of the year?

See, if they are one of the two best, then we know they should be considered for a National Championship. So let’s explore this on a few issues: first, the Big East Conference, second, Cincinnati’s schedule, and third, whether they could be considered better than other undefeated teams, or one loss teams.

First, we have to address the Big East. The last couple of years they have been in the dumps, considered by many as a worthless conference (but don’t say that in basketball). I personally felt the Mountain West, with Utah, BYU and TCU was a better football conference than the Big East.

But this is a quality conference, yet the voters showed no respect to any team in the Big East at the beginning of the year. Not one team was in the top 25 at the beginning of the year. I wondered about this because Cincinnati won 11 games last year. How can you deny a team with 11 wins on the top 25, when you got teams like Notre Dame that clearly underachieved, but still made the top 25?

Go figure.

The second argument is Cincinnati themselves. Yes they went 11-3 last year, but those three losses were to Oklahoma, Virginia Tech and Connecticut. The first two I can understand, but the jury is still out on UCONN.

But sweeping the other foes has to count for something. Right now Cincinnati is ranked #8 and is 6-0. If any upsets happen over the weekend, they can easily slide into the top 5. To this date they have only beaten one ranked foe, but they beat Fresno State, who Boise State also beat, and they also beat a Pac-10 foe in Oregon State. These are quality wins, if you put them side by side with a team like Boise State.

And with games against West Virginia and Pittsburgh, this could be some valid games to add on. It is quite possible for the Bearcats to run the table…if healthy.

But the main argument here is whether this team is better than any other undefeated team, or any 1 loss teams out there. Do I believe the Bearcats are better than Florida? No. Do I believe they are better than Texas? No. Do I believe they are better than Alabama…not really.

That alone means they are not, at this point, worthy of a BCS Championship shot, even if they go undefeated. Now, I think that they MIGHT be better than Boise State, and in fact if both go undefeated, the Bearcats will get the greater nod than the Broncos.

So what about 1 loss teams? Is Cincinnati better than Virginia Tech…well, they lost to them last year, didn’t they? Do I think they are better than USC…nope. Do I think they are better than Ohio State…no. Do I think they are better than Miami…hmm, interesting.

But this still keeps them out of the top 5 because right now, they are just not THAT team, no more than Boise State, and right now Boise State rests on the win over Oregon, which if I am correct was ranked #20 when they played. Cincinnati beat South Florida last night, who was ranked #21...so by the slimmest of margins, right now, Boise State is better.

So right now, we can’t say that Cincinnati is good enough to contend for the BCS, they would have to slide into it by fault of other teams. If they are the only undefeated team in the nation by the end of the season, it would immediately eliminate Boise State. If everybody in the top 10 lost one more except Cincinnati, it would eliminate USC, Ohio State, Boise State, Virginia Tech, Miami and LSU.

That would leave 4 teams to fight for it…Florida, Alabama, Texas and Cincinnati. So ask yourself this, if Florida, Alabama and Texas each had one loss, and Cincinnati had none, would you consider Cincinnati for a BCS title?

Would a perfect Bearcats team REALLY be better than the Gators, Crimson Tide or Longhorns?

Monday, September 7, 2009

Cincinnati vs Rutgers: Aftermath

Cincinnati vs. Rutgers: Aftermath

Well, there goes that game, 47-15.…

I thought maybe Rutgers might not win, but I figured it would be much closer than that. I watch that game on ESPN and heard the guys talk about the lack of presence of quarterbacks…and how true they were.

It was said that if you have 2 Qbs, you have none, and if you have 3, then you still have none.

I watched Cincinnati march the ball up the field as if they owned Rutgers, and I wondered if this was going to be a blowout. The ease in which they moved the ball in passing made it look like Rutgers needed another 2 weeks in practice.

But I also saw some promise in the running game of Rutgers. Their first possession had them hold on to the ball and move it with great efficiency, and it almost made me think that maybe they got the spirit of Ray Rice back there. It certainly helped to have 5 returning linemen to help push the line.

But Rutger’s problem seemed to be quite…glaring. They had a problem with quarterbacks. It seemed quite obvious that they could not, and would not throw the ball. And then they brought in a second quarterback to run some kinda Wildcat offense. In fact, they KEPT running it to the point where all the Rutgers fans knew when that QB came in, they were running the same old play.

And when it came time to throw, it showed the weakness of not having a true starting QB. But in truth, you can’t fully blame the two senior quarterbacks, having only like 13 passes between them. That’s the problem of having a very good QB who holds the job until he graduates, it leaves very little practice for those who follow… and it showed.

I know people might think that if they third QB (Savage) had started, things would have been different…I doubt it. They might have gotten a few more points, but they still would have been blown out of the water by 3 touchdowns.

And give credit to Cincinnati, they have a pretty good QB with a nice story of never giving up. Pike played pretty well, which will probably get the Bearcats on the top 25 very soon. But was this win over Rutgers respectable…or expected.

I wondered about the quarterback position, which may well be a real problem, and Rutgers pulled the same thing last year, having problems proving their strength at home starting the season. They have work to do, but the season is still young. Cincinnati showed us some stuff, and following a 11-3 record seems to be quite legit. Perhaps this is the chosen one for the Big East, Heaven knows they need some hope to pick the conference up. But this is only week one….

Cincinnati vs Rutgers

Cincinnati vs. Rugters

Sounds like a good conference matchup to me.

In less than 2 hours I will be watching this game on ESPN, and I wanted to take a moment to reflect on who has the better chance of winning today. I heard talk about how Rutgers might be the team to beat in the Big East, but I also remember that Cincinnati had 11 wins last year…including a 13-10 victory over said Rutgers.

But what also is going to be important is the fact that no Big East team was ranked in the top 25...what a slap in the face to the conference! So today’s game will be a strong signal to the true power (or lack of) from the Big East. Let’s look at each team and see who may come out victorious:

Cincinnati finished last year 11-3, losing to Oklahoma, UCONN and Virginia Tech. Some may wonder the true strength of the Bearcats since the schedule seemed questionable, outside of Oklahoma. Playing Eastern Kentucky, Miami (OH), Akron and Marshall does not really make for a BCS powerhouse, but beating South Florida, West Virginia, Pittsburgh and Rutgers does count for something.

Returning many offensive weapons makes it easier to repeat the successes of last year, but the schedule this year may be more challenging. Only one conference foe in the first 5 games, this game is incredibly important for the Bearcats. They won’t see another conference foe until mid October, and with opponents like Oregon State and Fresno State on the schedule, they need to come out of this at BEST 3-2, maybe even 4-1. A loss here to Rutgers could make the conference spin out again, looking for a true leader.

When you consider that each of Cincinnati’s wins were on average about 8 to 9 points, it shows that they play close games…how easy can that change in one year with the same opponents. Cincinnati seems to have problems winning away games too, in fact, two of their three losses were…away. Add in the bowl game vs. VA Tech, and you see my point.

And of those wins, factor in a 2 point win over Akron, a 3 point win over West Virginia, an 8 point win over Louisville and a 5 point win over Hawaii…these are games that can easily turn on you, and playing Rutgers in their house could be problematic.

Rugters, on the other hand, won 8 games last year, after starting out 0-3 and was as bad as1-5 before they started to turn it around. Losing at home to Fresno State and UNC ended any BCS hopes early, and a loss to Navy at home crushed it. The Scarlet Knights also lose their veteran QB, and a few receivers, so there is a time for retooling for Rutgers. The claim is that with 13 starters returning (initially) there is a good chance for Rutgers to snatch the Big East crown. And coming off a 7 game winning streak, including wins over Connecticut, South Florida and NC State in a bowl does have an upswing.

Of all those wins, the Pittsburgh win seemed most impressive, winning away by 20 points at a score of 54-34. Many of the other wins seemed less than stellar, after all, beating Syracuse, Army and UCONN didn’t really convince many people of the power of a Scarlet Knight. And with Louisville having a terrible season, and ACC foe NC State not putting fear in many, some will question if Rutgers is really ready to take the crown.

But the conference itself may even out, as many question the strength of any team in the Big East…again, NO Big East team has been ranked, so the voters must believe that none of these teams is strong enough to contend for a serious BCS title. It almost seems that by default, somebody has to win the Big East. But it cannot be argued that Rutgers and Cincinnati are quality teams.

Rutgers indeed has the home field advantage, but one can quickly counter by saying that last year Rutgers started the season off with a home loss to Fresno State 24-7, then got thumped by UNC 44-12 in their own living room. This is a situation Rutgers cannot repeat, scoring only 19 points in the first two games. Looking at Rutger’s schedule, if they can get by Cincinnati, it is quite possible that this could be the banner year they once had a couple years ago with great running back Ray Rice.

IF (a big if) Rutgers can beat Cincinnati, their next few games include Howard, Florida International before a trip to Maryland. Three home games before they go on the road, then after Maryland they are home for Texas Southern and Pittsburgh, a team they beat away by 20...

You can see the possibilities here for Rutgers. Yes they lost to Cincinnati and West Virginia last year, but those were away games…this year they are home. IF Rutgers can get past Cincinnati, this could quite easily be a 9+ win season, maybe even 10, as the Scarlet Knights would become the heir apparent to the Big East.

So who wins? Home field advantage means so much to any college team, and you’d like to automatically favor Rutgers, but we saw how they lost their first 2 home games last year. And if they are looking past this game in hopes of a 10 win season, something that is quite possible, then they may fail their first test.

It’s like legendary wrestler Ric Flair once said, “in order to BE the man, you gotta BEAT the man”, and that “man”, is actually a Bearcat.

Cincinnati beat Rutgers by three, can they do the same in Rutger’s house? This one is really close to me, and I personally like both teams, but without the leadership at the quarterback position, I just have to favor Cincinnati by a slim margin. One possession might make the difference…maybe even one point.

Saturday, September 5, 2009

Where are the Big East teams???

Has ANYBODY seen the Big East?

I was looking for something before the college football games started today, and I had a hard time finding it. But it wasn’t nearly as hard as finding a Big East team in the top 25.

What’s going on here?

I am not saying this as a complaint to the pollsters, I say that to the conference that apparently does not have one team good enough to be in the top 25 at the beginning of the season. And to think, just a couple years ago people were singing the praises of Rutgers and West Virginia. Now, what’s up with that?

Didn’t Cincinnati finish 11-3 last year? Didn’t Uconn once have a 5-game winning streak and finish 8-5? Louisville was once one of the highest scoring teams a couple of years ago. Pittsburgh won 9 games last year!

Rutgers went 8-5 last year and it wasn’t too long ago when South Florida was in the top 3 in the NATION. West Virginia won 9 games last year and Syracuse…

Well, they can’t all be steaks, as my professor once said.

This is almost disturbing that a “power conference” can be snubbed for lack of power. But there are obviously some reasons for it, one being that it is a small conference, and lacks the competition that the other conferences have. Last year I personally felt that the Mountain West Conference, with Utah, BYU, TCU and Air Force, was more competitive than the Big East.

But come on, surely ONE Big East team ought to have made the top 25, right?

Six out of 8 teams made post season, it has to count for something, right?

Right?

Well, let’s look at the conference as of last year and see why nobody put a Big East team in the preseason top 25.

Let’s start with Syracuse…

Uh…let’s not. Moving on…

West Virginia had a 9-4 record, but a soft Big East schedule (and a short one), coupled with the embarrassing loss to ECU hurt them. Losing to Colorado didn’t help either, even though West Virginia did beat UNC at the end of the season. But losing Pat White means rebuilding, which may be a problem.

South Florida was one of those teams that almost had the nation at their feet. I kinda wonder why this team wasn’t at least near the bottom of the top 25 this year, they beat Kansas last year, won their bowl, and had a pretty good year. They have some of the star players back, but many say there are holes in the team. Four of their 5 losses came from teams with a winning record, so I guess there would be some beef as to why South Florida wasn’t at least considered in the bottom half of the top 25. It might be because the last two years, they started out great, but fizzled at the end.

Rutgers went 8-5 and no longer have their ace QB. I bet they wish they still had Ray Rice. For a team that started 1-5, they salvaged the season pretty well. They beat everybody in the conference except Cincinnati and West Virginia, but I suppose if you take those two out, the competition might not be so hot. Still, some pollsters put Rugters just out of the top 25, so a win or two early might get them back in. But they gotta get by Cincinnati, first on their list.

Pittsburgh loses their two main rushers from last year and needs to step it up a bit. A 9-4 record is cool, but losing to Bowling Green off the top in 2008 didn’t look so good. Losing that bowl game to Oregon State 0-3 left a lot of question marks as well, but if you factor out the conference schedule, they did beat Buffalo (MAC Champions), Iowa and Notre Dame. That is not a bad resume. Looking at their schedule, it is possible for Pittsburgh to be 5-0 and get on that top 25 list…watch for it.

What happened to Louisville? A 5-7 season, with a loss to Kentucky and several conference foes. This season does NOT look good for them, having lost their star QB, and AT Kentucky, AT Utah, AT Connecticut, AT Cincinnati, AT West Virginia and AT South Florida…ugh! I don’t see any hope here folks.

Connecticut to me is one of those decent teams that can sneak up on you based on their weak strength of schedule. Not saying anything bad about the Huskies, I like their style. But often times when it is time to prove, they fall a little short. Yeah they beat Virginia last year, and started out 5-0, but that changed quickly as they finished 3-5, although beating Buffalo in a bowl game. Playing Baylor, Ohio and Rhode Island might give them 3 wins, and I can see 6 wins easy but a top 25 ranking…not quite sure. They might sneak up there for a minute or two before dropping out.

And Cincinnati, why aren’t they in the top 25? They finished 11-3, come on, give a Bearcat some love! Their three losses were to Oklahoma, Connecticut and losing at the end of season to Virginia Tech. They return a lot of key offensive weapons, and their schedule is quite favorable. They don’t play Oklahoma or Virginia Tech this year, and Connecticut has to come see them….this could be a pretty favorable schedule for Cincinnati, and maybe the Big East privately lays hopes on them making some noise and bringing some credibility back to the conference.

Of course, all the preseason polls are purely speculative, but one has to wonder why not even one Big East team is on the top 25...the conference has something to prove, and they better get started quickly, lest they lose all respect from the other teams and conferences in the nation. The only way to get that respect is to do one thing…win… and win today.